Bill RE: Next Season
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I look at winning a national championship like this.
You have to have X amount of talent to win a national title. That’s the bare minimum. Let’s say that in any given year, you have to have 80 talent to win a national title at a minimum. Anything less than 80, you can’t win because you just aren’t talented enough to get through all of the games - maybe not even quite good enough to make the tournament.
Now, if you are only 80, you probably need to have a superb individual star carry you (think Kemba Walker or Danny Manning). As you move above 80, you don’t need that singular star because you just have so much talent at your disposal anyway.
So really, winning a title is a two step process. Step 1 is get to 80 - again, that’s just an arbitrary number to set a baseline. Step 2 is getting as high as you can after 80 to increase your chances. Let’s say that for every point above 80 you go, your chances of winning a title increase by 20%. So if you have a 1% chance of winning a title with 80 talent, 81 talent gives you a 1.2% chance of winning, 82 gives you a 1.44% chance, 83 is 1.72%, 84 is 2.06% and so on.
So of course, based on that, you want to stockpile talent because that alone increases your chances just because you are good enough to win six games in a row because of your talent.
After that, it’s still comes down to those six games, but your chances are better with more talent.
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I agree its risky because your basically hitting the re-set button in 2018 as well. Back to the same issue recruiting your next leader.
Duval is that situation. He might give you one spectacular season though.
Young is in the Devonte Graham route 2/3 maybe even 4 years of College. Young won’t wow any scout with his size, athleticism, measurable’s so he’s a candidate to be a very good College player with a limited ceiling in the NBA. Young is the type of player that if he stayed 4 years, breaks scoring records. He scored 52 in a game recently with 9 dimes.
Self put us on the OAD map, he’s chasing the best talent and knows that a 4 year window with top players has shrunk considerably. 7 of the 10 players on this years roster have a good chance of making an NBA roster in the future. The 2 kids he’s signed already make 9.
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@drgnslayr We will still have Garrett to run point 2 years from now. I’d expect a So. Garrett to be ready to go.
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Interesting post. Never heard that concept before.
So using your “80” as a minimum… where does this Kansas team come in at?
And… could Josh be that special player you mention? Or someone else on this team?
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This KU team is easily in the 90s on total talent. With as many as 7 future pros on the roster, this team has tons of talent. This team is easily more talented than last year’s team (probably more of a high 80s or low 90s level talent team). The most talented teams in recent memory were Kentucky 2015, Duke 2015, Kentucky 2012, North Carolina 2009, Florida 2007, Kansas 2008 and North Carolina 2005. The least talented champions were Duke 2010 and UConn 2011 and 2014.
Looking across the nation, the most talented teams (in no particular order) are Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, UCLA and Indiana. I would be very surprised if those six teams are healthy and at least 2 of them don’t get to the Final Four. Baylor, Villanova, and Xavier are all very good, but they can’t match those first six in terms of raw talent. However, I think I just listed three or four of the Final Four teams, and I am almost certain I just listed this season’s champion.
Put it this way, if you told me that I had to, right now, pick this season’s NCAA champion and you gave me five guesses, I would pick KU, UK, Duke, UCLA and UNC, and I would feel fairly comfortable that I would be right. Obviously that’s not foolproof, but with the level of talent those five teams have (it’s possible that those teams have 12 of the first 17 picks in next year’s NBA draft, and possibly as many as 15 or 16 overall draftees. That’s talent.
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Vanderbilt cut KU. Not a surprise, but now 100% confirmed he won’t be a Hawk next year.
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Perfectly okay with that, watched some of his AAU games this summer couldn’t believe he was that highly ranked. maybe he’s improved
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I will admit I haven’t seen much of him. Assumed he is good because Calimari wants him.
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@justanotherfan KU, UK, Duke, UCLA, UNC? You just listed all the most traditional high-elite blue bloods. Whats changed? Interesting how the top doesnt change much. Doesnt mean one of these teams cant get knocked off by someone in the madness, but the conventional wisdom hasnt changed…and its taken a TON of work by each of these programs and their coaches to be and remain on this list. Each of these teams is an absolute contender to win a NC this season. And in most seasons.
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Vanderbilt is good, don’t get me wrong I would put him more in the 40’s range because he lacks a jump-shot with any consistency right now. He can handle the ball and push the ball in transition, has pretty good vision, rebounds well and finishes above the rim. I don’t think he was a fit at KU from how we like our 3 and 4 man to have shooting ability. If that is the way Self recruits those positions going forward with how successful the last few years ago have gone, guys like Vanderbilt probably won’t get as much attention from us. I know there was mutual interest for a while but I think when Self narrowed in on Preston, Vanderbilt wasn’t needed. We better hope that decision doesn’t backfire
I would like to see more of him but the games I saw him play he wasn’t as active as I expected. Definitely needs to learn to play with a more consistent motor to play under any of his finalists, especially UK. Oregon in my opinion would be the best fit for him as they like to use similar guys as their 4 man. I’ve had a hard time finding a good comp for him. For his ranking he’s borderline OAD type but I don’t see it.
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Yikes, mom wants him close to home… That probably does it for KU’s chances
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There are years where I wouldn’t list some of those schools. 2005, 2006 and 2009, for example, I would not have listed KU. Until this year, I probably wouldn’t have listed UCLA since the Ben Howland years. Kentucky, between the 1998 title and Calipari being hired, probably doesn’t make that list. UNC isn’t on that list for the years between Smith and Williams. Even Duke misses that list here and there despite not having a coaching change over the last 25 years or so.
The difference for these schools is that they have the resources to get back on that list. Butler had a great run, but couldn’t keep Brad Stevens. Had that been Indiana, they could have probably kept him (assuming he wasn’t set on going to the NBA). They are still good, but not title contender good.
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I am curious why you would leave out the 3 years Bill Guthridge was UNC HC? He compiled an 80-28 record that tied him for most wins all-time by a coach after 3 years and he made the Final Four twice in those 3 years. A pretty damn good record if you ask me.
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I forgot about those years. Went straight to the bad years after and left out those years. Good call on that.
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Yeah we will see how much it matters.
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Norm was watching Walker again today. Things are heating up.
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Sam Cunliffe visiting Jan 2nd. He recently escaped the ASU dumpster fire.
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Interesting, I liked Cunliffe out of High School. Very Athletic, deep range on the jumper, good handles and can get to the lane and finish. I see a player Self would want. Not sure he defends anything but we’ll see how the visit goes.
Some ASU people have commented on his sudden departure. I can see where they might be upset, he was the highest ranked kid to come to ASU since James Harden. Tough to lose talent you think might be the face of your program if he developed. Might be a kid that needs to mature and be grounded. A lot of talk about him not getting along with teammates, upset with playing time even though he was starting, upset with role in the offense. Who knows what is actually true but there might be some “baggage” attached to him. He attended 3 High Schools, switched AAU squads. Sounds like the typical today’s kid that wants everything. Honestly have no clue whether to believe those claims or not, but if he comes to KU he only has one way or its the highway. Would be a really good get as a mid-season transfer, I think KU needs him desperately if Svi tests the waters and leaves
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I hope we get him. Three years removed from HS Cunliffe is better than any wing KU can realistically get in the 2018 class as a Frosh.
If the staff misses on Young then Marcus Keene could be an option if he decides to grad transfer. Currently averaging 30 ppg for CMU. 5’9’’ 160 though.
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I agree we’ll see what happens going forward. I’m sure he wants to enroll at another school rather soon.
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@BeddieKU23 @BShark Cunliffe would be a good pickup. Is he visiting anywhere else?
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Not sure. I feel it has to bode well that KU is getting a visit so soon.
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Saw Gonzaga could be in play, Cunliffe is from Washington. If he makes it past the KU visit without committing he might end up close to home.
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I read that scholarships could be an issue for Gonzaga.
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Interested to see if Self goes after Jahmal McMurray from South Florida who is also tranferring. Native of Wichita, prolific scorer but has some baggage apparently. Was averaging 20 a game in the 3 games he did play this season.
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Originally from Topeka, went down to Wichita to play at Sunrise. The reason for suspension was undisclosed, but I would think Bill could get that info if he were looking to take the kid.
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reflecting for a moment. Isn’t it crazy that we get intrigued by any transfer with a pulse these days? It’s almost become 2nd nature to be looking at the transfer market as just as an important tool to fill your roster as is getting those elite recruits and Frank Mason’s of the world. Crazy how much things have changed
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@BeddieKU23 I wonder if that’s a product on the OAD era. It’s no big deal to leave after a year. Personally I’m a lifetime Jayhawk, no worries about me transferring my loyalty.
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I’m very happy we won’t be losing you to Duke or Kentucky next year. Don’t be upset by the lack of likes on your posts. There will be brighter days ahead.
Definitely, the OAD era has created a trickle down effect. Kids want it all now and if they don’t they go where the next coach promises them a box of cookies. Just ask Andrew White- he’s on his 3rd box now:bowtie:
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Yeah it can be tough to get program players when you are recruiting at a high level but aren’t Duke (gets to basically pick who they want) or UK (only recently slowed down by the Duke train).
With the caveat that Young is still on the board (and Duval technically is) KU could strike out on PGs in this class (I do count Newman in this class but not a true PG and Garrett is a wing/combo, very good playmaker but will likely play the three) so we could be in a spot where we need a grad transfer, but a regular transfer wouldn’t hurt either, to have waiting and developing for 2018.
This is why I love players like Russ Rob, Releford, Tyshawn, Reed, Morningstar, Mitch and Landen. Never gonna wow, but do the dirty work that needs to be done. Of course Russ and Rele came in as 5 stars so their situation was a bit different, but still.
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I’m not sure we can count on Svi being back next year. His game is really starting to open up this year and we’re not even into conference play yet. His ability and talent his showing that he his more than a spot shooter.
Don’t get me wrong another season would be great for Svi, but I’m not sure that happens.
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Definitely. Bill pretty much said it’s completely up in the air with Svi in the article in the OP.
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@DoubleDD Maybe, but he hasn’t really been able to fully demonstrate or develop his playmaking ability. I guess to me the question is can he go lottery next year by facilitating the offense more. This year he’d be late first round at best, imo.
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My fear is the international game keeps whispering in his ear too. I don’t know the numbers, yet I get this feeling he could make more money going to the International game for a couple years and then enter the NBA draft. I read something the other day that SVI is still a month younger than JJ.
My hope is Svi’s parents are big on education, and would apply the pressure on Svi to finish up is education at KU. Then again I’ve been presently surprised by his play this year, and he seems to be getting better by each game. There is still a lot of games to be played.
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I recall an interview with Svi right after he picked Kansas. His dream is to play in the league. Period.
I know he is embracing his college days at Kansas. I hope he earns himself a degree and feel certain that he will.
He looks like he has already made half the leap up in play to make it in the NBA. When you consider that he is still just the age of a freshman, that is a great sign.
I fully expect him to return for his senior year. His game is still advancing rapidly while at Kansas and he is still very young. I don’t expect him to jump to lotto status this year, but you never know and there is a lot of season left. With Doke going down, it just opens up the possibility that much more of a guy like Svi getting even more minutes as we will be playing more 4-guard offense moving forward.
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Agreed. Once the demon of expectations was released, and he has just been allowed to work at getting better a little all the time, his young age has become time on his side, instead of time in his face. And he has gradually improved and the Ukrainean Cranium is soaking up the game like a sponge and the Steve Austin body rebuilding is slowly becoming more and more natural to him. It was hard for me to let go of that skinny, floppy, Pete Maravich kind of player he seemed to arrive as, but I have to say that if he can just find the gun sight he left somewhere around the Crimean, that this guy could with incremental progress become a real force still!
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So Vanderbilt popped for UK the other day. This makes 3 post commits for them.
Adebayo will be drafted and Willis is a SR. That leaves approximately 1 million post players still on their roster. I am thinking someone will transfer. Wynyard is the most likely candidate. 6’10’’ 250 pound beast buried on their bench. I could see it being Gabriel as well. Humphries seems like a program back-up big for them but he is only playing 11 minutes a game. 5 star Killeya-Jones is buried on their bench as well. If it happens, I’d bet KU would inquire about any of them.
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Gabriel isn’t going anywhere in my opinion. He just needs time to develop, when he puts it all together he will be a tantalizing hybrid forward type. Look for him to be a monster next year.
I agree on Wynyard and I think Humphries is a transfer candidate as well. I think Cal would rather role with his 3 freshman + Jones & Gabriel. Funny that they have stockpiled bigs when they are likely to lose their entire backcourt again
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I like Gabriel too, I was just thinking since Cal is bringing in two other hybrid forwards then maybe. I think they’d be crazy to do it, maybe Gabriel can play the 3 for them next year.
And yeah they only have for sure on the roster next year: Green, Alexander. Now I don’t think Briscoe should go pro but reports are he wants to. Doesn’t look like they will get Hami and I still believe Duke gets Knox (who is a wing and not a guard anyway). Really interesting situation. Will Cal have to comb to JUCO and/or grad tranfer ranks? Not sure what else he can do, maybe get Quickley to reclassify? You just can’t roll out there with only two actual guards.
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Good points! Gabriel is certainly versatile to guard multiple positions so there is some chance he could be a long 3, especially if his jump-shot was falling consistently. I’m thinking either Washington or Vanderbilt will be a 3 because they both are so athletic and can play inside/out.
I don’t think Cal is nearly done recruiting. New names will emerge, some kids will back out of commitments after coaching changes etc. KU and UK will most likely be after any hot name that emerges this spring.
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Sima ended up at Oklahoma St…
Also Cunliffe visits Georgetown before his KU visit. And reportedly Seattle is involved, can’t imagine really in it… Hopefully he don’t commit to Georgetown before his visit
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@BeddieKU23 said:
I don’t think Cal is nearly done recruiting. New names will emerge, some kids will back out of commitments after coaching changes etc. KU and UK will most likely be after any hot name that emerges this spring.
Fair. There are always decommits.
@BeddieKU23 said:
Sima ended up at Oklahoma St…
Also Cunliffe visits Georgetown before his KU visit. And reportedly Seattle is involved, can’t imagine really in it… Hopefully he don’t commit to Georgetown before his visit
Nice, more talent in the B12.
We know Georgetown will sell the kid hard. With KU on the table though, hopefully he will at least visit KU first.
Seattle would only be if he REALLY wanted to be back at home you’d think. Maybe just a courtesy to be mentioned but who knows. Not a ton of options considering wherever he goes has to have an open scholarship and he can’t really shoot (you can succeed with a non-shooter or two in college and considering his athleticism I think he would be a good pick-up in spite of this).
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@BShark Agreed. At this point it seems like Bragg may need to come back to KU next season, especially if KU doesnt do well in March.
My impression of Preston is almost a Point Forward. Im no scout but from what Ive seen, the kid has handles like a guard. Bragg, Doke and Preston next season in the post!? Yes please!
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Former Georgetown forward Isaac Copeland, an AAU and prep school teammate of Kansas guard Devonté Graham, has Kansas on his list of possible transfer destinations.
Copeland, a 6-foot-9, 220-pound junior who recently announced plans to leave the Big East school, has a list of KU, Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Illinois, North Carolina State, Nebraska, Texas, and UConn, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports and fanragsports.com.
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article123048329.html#storylink=cpy
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Would take. He was solid for them last year and with a year off for more development would be a nice part of a post rotation at KU. Get Copeland and Cunliffe and that’s more nice talent on the bench.
Lol at the article mentioning Naz Reid. Though, I’d love to get him. Just not happening.
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If given a choice between Copeland and Cunliffe, it’s Cunliffe. Copeland coming off back surgery I would look elsewhere.
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Vip article up on 247 about Cunliffe visit. Um yeah, probably gonna pick KU.
