Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday
-
KU continued its conference opener win streak, now (33 years) and hopefully counting with a gutty 2-point win over TCU in Allen Fieldhouse. It was a very good game that ended in KU’s favor Saturday.
I’ve seen A LOT of national media reacting to the game, whether it be social media etc. I’ve seen both sides of the story regarding the Flagrant 1 call and whether that was the right call and the subsequent impact it had on the outcome of the game. There was still over a minute left in the game so it’s difficult to say TCU wins the game definitively if that flagrant isn’t called. So much can happen in the last minute of a tight game, and we’ve seen too many improbable comebacks in Allen Fieldhouse to say otherwise at this point. Would TCU have scored on the potential fast break opportunity to make it a 2-possession game? Probable but we don’t know and the same for the outcome. They might have had a 70+% chance to win at that point but we don’t know. It was a fortunate turn of events in KU’s favor (More on that later).
It was the right call by the rule and I’m surprised at the controversy. Why did Udeh whip his arm back after the steal instead of carrying his momentum forward? To me that was intent to clear space with intent to create contact which just so happened to be Hunter’s face. I don’t think Udeh hitting Hunter in the face was intentional at all but it’s certainly something that cost his team in the end.
Now getting to the meat and potatoes of the discussion. KU sits 13-1 and #2 in the nation on paper. Besides being undefeated there isn’t much more this KU team could be doing better on paper. Despite that, there is a narrative out there that this KU team might not be as good as their record indicates. That KU is lucky to be 13-1 and the TCU game certainly fuels that discussion. I watched one video where they said KU is the most unimpressive 13-1 team they can remember in a long time. How can that be when KU has 2 All-American candidates on the same team with the best coach in all of College Basketball leading them. I don’t understand that talk.
Another said they look like a 2nd round exit in the Tournament type team. Perhaps they are onto something there as far as ceiling of this team, perhaps they are full of crap. Nobody knows what this team will do until it gets to that point which frankly is still to early to be fussing about. I guess winning games isn’t enough if you’re not dominating every opponent or looking sexy enough in the analytics. There are only 6 Power-5 teams left with 1 loss or less (1 unbeaten). A dozen P5 teams with 2 or less losses so it’s not like this year’s College Basketball landscape is full of elite level teams because that’s not the case at all.
On the Analytics side, KU isn’t even close to a Top 5 team right now and you wonder how that’s possible with their record and who they’ve played. Kenpom has them #16, Torvik #18, NET #11 overall right now. How can these be so off from what’s actually happening when the game gets played? Can the numbers be trusted? KU has beaten #4, #6 & #17 according to Kenpom. Kenpom also has a “luck” rating where it has KU #18. The definition of this rating is as follows:
Luck rating (Luck): KenPom defines this as a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Interested to hear what y’all have to say about this team in light of Saturday’s game. Are they lucky to be 13-1 or is this just the media trying to create a narrative?
-
File this under “How to be under the radar and the #2 team in the country at the same time.”
Let them say what they want. Quad 1 wins are Quad 1 wins.
-
Until KU starts having all 5 starters contribute consistently, and gets at least double digits regularly from the bench, nat’l pundits will say we are vulnerable. That can mean not as good as we are ranked, or it can mean that we have a great starting 4 that has taken us to this point. Few teams with no depth make believers of everybody.
I am just surprised that people here get bent out of shape about media saying we are vulnerable, when so so many posts by Boardrats during games, and about our bench, are so pessimistic. If the media voted based on our board, no one would think our fanbase believes we are as good as our rank!
-
Well , I seen this coming after this weekend , seen an article not sure though if it was AP , or ESPN but we are now # 3 in the Nation behind Houston. I have no qualms with that. Our play has been very average to not quite so average to say the least. We have won like 5-6 games in Single digits,- We WOULD NOT of got that call if we were on the road, and like Coach said Hunter sure sold that call. If they hadn’t called that it could of been a loss, as TCU would of had the ball up two with like a minute /four to go.- -not saying they would of won, guess we will neve know now, BUT that was a huge turn - a four point swing from down two and TCU with the ball to KU up two. - -Ya I think we are lucky to be 13-1 right now.
As far s people saying we are a 2nd round exit ?- -at this point I would have to say that’s very possible I’d say as of right now I think this team is maybe a Sweet sixteen team, just have seen other clubs looking better, more athletic , bottom line is unless we get more point production out of other people, we aren’t going that far in the NCAA’s if teams can slack off one player on the floor that hasn’t shown consistent ability to score and reluctant to shoot at times, - -and you have another player that has shown he can score, but refuses and is reluctant to shoot a lot of times - those aren’t very good odds to win deep in the tourney. Now everyone has their own opinions and that’s fine no problems, I’m just saying we just haven’t really look that impressive against quality opponents , I mean ya we have beaten U Conn & Tennessee & Kentucky & that’s good. We played good but impressive ?-- - - Cases can be made for those Schools also - - Kentucky was early , early and they were missing key players ( Bradshaw for one ), U Conn one of their best players was hurt, and another played through the game hurt. - Ya we loss to Marquette who is good, but that’s looking even worse now as they have gotten beat by lesser teams, you want to try and tell m Seton Hall is better then KU who beat Marquette.
Lastly, we got work to do, again I have no problem with Houston being above us, un defeated and more dominate , just played better ball. I still like this team but yes we are lucky to be where we are at
-
“Lucky” is the wrong word. I can see using the word “fortunate.”
Part of that fortune is we have a starting lineup of 4 well-seasoned players. That has given us an advantage in early-season play. Now we get down to the first level of grit in our season. I can see us possibly losing 2-3 of our first 10 games. We have some tough challenges ahead. But I’m not going to discount the value of our seasoned players. They just seem to find ways to win close games.
I question if we pass the “eye test” for being ranked #2. Our shortcoming at the 5th spot and bench has to be considered. It may easily bite us in several situations; when we have foul trouble, when we play games close together and have tired legs, when most of our starters are having an off night, when someone gets hurt. As the season continues we are bound to see some wear on the team, especially on Juan. We rely so much on Juan to have a polished game every single night. That’s going to be tough, especially as we play league games and we are scouted well.
Simply stated, we can’t go far without some support from more than our top 4 players. I’d settle for getting good play out of 2 of the rest of our players on any given night. I’d like to see Parker rise up and become a consistent force for our second tier. He doesn’t have to be spectacular, but if he can come in and defend, rebound, and not turn the ball over, that would be a huge help and he should be used to give Hunter and Kevin a blow. Then we need the trio of Johnny, Elmarko, and Nick. One needs to shine every game!
This may sound like I’m asking a lot. Not really. These guys just have to play within their skill level and must learn to find ways to help the team. Johnny is a slam dunk here because he’s a solid rebounder. If he played 35 minutes a game he could hit double-digit rebounds. In all seriousness, I’m not sure his legs can go 35 minutes.
Jamari has become a positive in many of our eyes. Not sure why he doesn’t get more minutes. First… he’ll need to secure more minutes or I can see him transfer out and I’d hate to lose him. He has a coolness about him and seems like a clutch player who eventually will add clutch minutes in many outings. I wish his leash were extended a bit more.
I see the biggest threat to us in league play is from the teams that have athleticism and play fast. Can we keep up with the pace? We won’t have a choice if we play teams that push pace, and we will.
It is starting to appear we will not be a team pushing pace. Such a pity. We’ll have to fight hard for baskets in most of our games. I’m not sure we can always count on Hunter to save us in the half-court game.
It is going to be a fun year regardless! We have the potential to be in every game and play down to the wire and win. We might even still blow out a few teams in our league. I’m looking at you, UCF!
I know Bill likes to use his timeouts wisely so I’m expecting him to take more “rest timeouts” in the coming weeks.
Let’s stay optimistic. March favors us! If we stay healthy, we will have a good March team! 2-game weekends and a week to recover. Not many teams have a solid answer for defending Hunter. And I wouldn’t trade Juan or Kevin for anyone else in March. Then there is our secret weapon… KJ! If he starts hitting the glass big we will win a lot more games!
-
I like being under the radar personally. I hate it when talking heads make us favorites and seldom works out for us if it ever has when we are. You never know what will happen in March. We had teams that were built to win championships lose early and teams that were big question marks make the final four. I do know playing our best ball in the first week of January isn’t likely and that’s good.
-
Funny when I was looking at South Carolina’s page (while waiting for their game to end Saturday) I noticed their 1 loss record and looked at their schedule and laughed as they lost to the only ranked team they played, but KU is the weakest 13-1 team? Not by a long stretch.
The boys in crimson and blue haven’t overwhelmed me this year. Obviously the wins are occurring. But we’ve had to claw back from late wake up calls seemingly in every big game we’ve played this year. I just wish we had some depth.
-
I bet UConn and Arizona wish they were 13-1!
KU has beaten #4,5,6. Houston bas not played a top 25 team this year. But they jumped the Jayhawks by winning more convincingly against bad teams. It’s the inverse of the Joel Embiid/Wiggins Jayhawks - they played a ridiculously hard schedule so they were ranked high, even though they lost most of the games against the top competition.
-
This team is damn good! Hunter is the best big man we’ve had this century (sorry Embiid, you were hurt)… and probably better than any big guy at filling the net since Wilt. Kev is semi pro. KJ is a freak athlete who knows the system and has the Jayhawk heart of a lion. Juando is juando and has two or three extra notches if he needs it. Probably three best defenders in the league.
That’s a championship roster right there. Most teams like that would still have some dude that dribbles off his leg filling the 5th spot, and we have at least two guys who could become absolute studs by tourney time. (El Marko and Furphy)
I’m optimistic
They look like shit right now sometimes because of the new components, but I think by March we’ll be a solid overall #1.
-
I used the term lucky just to start conversation but there’s definitely talk out there about how good this team is despite being ranked #2 while on a 9-game winning streak.
The roster is top heavy with 4 vets that get it and the rest that are trying to catchup to that level. The imbalance makes the level of play inconsistent at times which is perhaps the biggest reason people see weakness and run with it. To be ranked #2 with some of the weaknesses this team has is really remarkable.
Self is again showing why he’s the best coach out there
-
Elmarko is seven letters Elm is three = 10 divided by 2 = 5 and becomes Elmar kinda as in Fudd . Elmar for 3!! not much of a ring to it. So it’s Marko or Marky or Mark or Elm or E.lo like J.lo.
Johnny or Furphy and 6 letters is too many that goes without saying. There’s only one that really works and that is Jofur which is Nordic, and I think also Australian, for Thunder God.
Just having fun.
-
I think the 2022 was a little bit lucky to win the whole thing. Not an enormously talented team. Very good of course, got hot, red hot, and got to play a 10 seed in the regional final, a 2 seed missing their PG (I think he was a PG) in the semifinal, and an 8 seed in the final. Strange year of course and all of that ‘lucky to win it’ label wears off over time. I don’t think there’s any dominant team this year. Purdue’s been very good of course, but they have a bad loss on their resume and we don’t. So this could easily end in another championship, but I’m not guaranteeing it. The kid from Texas (not gonna look his name up, don’t want to remember it) still with us? Then we’re maybe close to a dominant team but we can’t prove anything as we haven’t seen him play.
-
@wissox Agree. Who remembers the teams UConn beat to secure their championships? I don’t remember any world beaters, but they all count the same!
-
In my opinion… no team that wins a national championship got lucky. To me, that implies they didn’t really control their destiny. The team that wins it all won out, and that is the best they could do. But I do feel teams often have good fortune. We had good fortune in 2022… and we’ve had good fortune this year until now.
-
Our current team still has room for a lot of improvement with the biggest improvement perhaps coming from the guys after our top 4 players. And our entire starting team should improve considerably. We know they are capable of locking down on defense. That first half we played against UCONN was amazing! When we play like that there aren’t many teams going to beat us, if any.
This is the process… every year… do we make the big jump in improvement soon? Who knows? I hope so! Let’s not forget we have two guys that are at the top in the nation on defense… Juan and Kevin. And KJ and Hunter are improving. Hopefully the rest come along!
-
At the end of our last game the king of 3P’s had a decent chance to win that game. That would have been lucky for them? In the 2022 championship game the Tar Heels missed their last four shots including the desperation three to tie it at the buzzer. Was that lucky for us? We overcame the largest deficit in final history by outscoring them 47-29 in the second half. I think that their being a #8 seed team punching above their weight finally caught up with them. It was a nice but unlikely run for them. Bill was a fist pumping happy man at the buzzer.
NC is #1 in the number of snake bites in the US and may feel they got snake bitten at the half.
-
So with both Houston and Purdue losing last night, here are some facts from Gary Parish for my input into why this team has the potential to make a statement. THIS IS THE POINT AT THE END: So there’s a realistic scenario that has Kansas sitting at 18-1 heading into a Jan. 27 game at Iowa State, the same place where previously unbeaten Houston just lost.
"Kansas will probably be my pick to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, I can acknowledge the Jayhawks haven’t been consistently sharp this season. They’ve played closer-than-they-should’ve-been games with sub-100 NET teams like Missouri, Indiana and Eastern Illinois, and they were fortunate to get past unranked TCU at home this past weekend. All of that is among the reasons Kansas’ computer numbers aren’t great.
But I’m forever more interested in résumés than I am in efficiency numbers, and KU’s résumé is super strong.
TRIVIA TIME: How many teams have three wins over teams ranked in the top eight of the Top 25 And 1 and zero losses to teams ranked outside of the top 15 of the Top 25 And 1?
Answer: Kansas.
The Jayhawks are 13-1 with three Quadrant 1 victories, but that alone doesn’t properly tell the story. All three of those Q1 victories — neutral-court wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, and a win over UConn at home — are among the best you can get. They are wins over the schools ranked No. 4 (Tennessee), No. 5 (UConn) and No. 8 (Kentucky) in the Top 25 And 1. And KU’s lone loss is to the school ranked No. 13 (Marquette) in the Top 25 And 1. So the Jayhawks are No. 1 in the Top 25 And 1 heading into Wednesday night’s game at UCF. According to KenPom.com, Kansas projects as at least a four-point favorite in each of its next five games. So there’s a realistic scenario that has Kansas sitting at 18-1 heading into a Jan. 27 game at Iowa State, the same place where previously unbeaten Houston just lost.
See you guys tonight EARLY game
#RockChalk
Post length is in honor of Jaybate…how many have read this far?
-
@RockChalkinTexas said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
So with both Houston and Purdue losing last night, here are some facts from Gary Parish for my input into why this team has the potential to make a statement. THIS IS THE POINT AT THE END: So there’s a realistic scenario that has Kansas sitting at 18-1 heading into a Jan. 27 game at Iowa State, the same place where previously unbeaten Houston just lost.
"Kansas will probably be my pick to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, I can acknowledge the Jayhawks haven’t been consistently sharp this season. They’ve played closer-than-they-should’ve-been games with sub-100 NET teams like Missouri, Indiana and Eastern Illinois, and they were fortunate to get past unranked TCU at home this past weekend. All of that is among the reasons Kansas’ computer numbers aren’t great.
But I’m forever more interested in résumés than I am in efficiency numbers, and KU’s résumé is super strong.
TRIVIA TIME: How many teams have three wins over teams ranked in the top eight of the Top 25 And 1 and zero losses to teams ranked outside of the top 15 of the Top 25 And 1?
Answer: Kansas.
The Jayhawks are 13-1 with three Quadrant 1 victories, but that alone doesn’t properly tell the story. All three of those Q1 victories — neutral-court wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, and a win over UConn at home — are among the best you can get. They are wins over the schools ranked No. 4 (Tennessee), No. 5 (UConn) and No. 8 (Kentucky) in the Top 25 And 1. And KU’s lone loss is to the school ranked No. 13 (Marquette) in the Top 25 And 1. So the Jayhawks are No. 1 in the Top 25 And 1 heading into Wednesday night’s game at UCF. According to KenPom.com, Kansas projects as at least a four-point favorite in each of its next five games. So there’s a realistic scenario that has Kansas sitting at 18-1 heading into a Jan. 27 game at Iowa State, the same place where previously unbeaten Houston just lost.
See you guys tonight EARLY game
#RockChalk
Post length is in honor of Jaybate…how many have read this far?
Thing is on top of this is, Every game we play from now on or more are going to be Quad 1 opportunity just goes to show how tough this league is. True TCU was un ranked also , but the question is, should they be. I can see discussion s to why they should be ranked. That’s a pretty feisty solid club. Now with Houston & Purdue losing do we deserve to be back at # 1 again if we win our games this week?- – Maybe , Maybe be not. Thing is really the only ranking that means squat is the final when a team wins the National Championship - -that’s what the players play for and Coach’s Coach for , the rest is just for fans to thump their chest.- -We might as well have the # 1 ranking if we win , someone has to take it. This league is brutal, just beat up on one another all Season, we just roll the dice - -play it out and see what happens, roll that ball out on the court and get to it.
-
The simple answer to the original question is yes, we are lucky to be 13-1!
-
It was a short lived 13-1. Hopefully that was rock bottom last night. Even if the game thread gave you an idea how bad they played, seeing it would make it that much worse. A good dose of reality for the team and for us
-
Felt a lot like the normal non con game before Christmas except in January. And it counts as a conference loss…
-
I blame @BeddieKU23 for last night
-
@kjayhawks said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
I blame @BeddieKU23 for last night
Me too!
-
@BeddieKU23 said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
It was a short lived 13-1. Hopefully that was rock bottom last night. Even if the game thread gave you an idea how bad they played, seeing it would make it that much worse. A good dose of reality for the team and for us
I opined that we could very well go 20 and one to start and end up 20 and 8. I wont do that again. Now i’m thinking 19 and two.
-
I have mentioned my nephew who just played his last year in the FCS and his team won as repeat national champions. He may very well be in the NFL next year or be an undrafted free agent. First team AA and an even better young man.
-
@Zabudda Awesome! Hope he makes it to Sundays!
-
@BeddieKU23 You’re right. When we got blasted by Kentucky at home 2 years ago I thought there was no way in heck that team is good enough to win a NC and ironically one of the few years I didn’t pick KU on my brackets.
-
@wissox better stop picking them lol
-
“It is among the most remarkable feats in college basketball history: In Bill Self’s past 17 seasons at Kansas, the Jayhawks have earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament 11 times. (We’re giving KU the No. 1 overall spot in the cancelled 2020 tourney, which was a lock.) Think about the sustained excellence required to be one of the top four teams in the country two-thirds of the time for almost two decades. So, if the Jayhawks are a little “down” this year – meaning a probable 2-seed instead of a No. 1 – we should probably cut them some slack. And that’s before mentioning that a return to the top line at some point before March is by no means out of the question. It’s simply that our tournament seeding model says the Jayhawks have “only” a 25% chance to get there, which is news only because it’s Kansas.” JOE LUNARDI
-
If KU is a 2, I wouldn’t want to be the one seed in our bracket
-
@dylans we’re blessed basketball wise to be fans of such a consistently great program.
-
I would take a 2 seed, but I don’t think that is a foregone conclusion, let alone a 1 seed. At this point, we have 2 road losses against lower tier B12 teams. We’ve twice struggled to hold serve at home, and not against the best in the conference. Vegas has a pretty good read on this team - we were favored by 6-7 against Cincinnati and didn’t cover.
We may be an underdog in everyone of the remaining 6 road games. How many do we realistically think are winnable? Traditionally, our advantage relative to everyone else in the conference is consistently winning the road games. Just not sure this team is as equipped to do that.
That puts a lot of pressure to win the home games. Are we going to sweep Houston, Baylor, Texas, KSU and BYU at Allen? Perhaps, but we need to play much better than we have the past few games…
-
@wissox said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
@dylans we’re blessed basketball wise to be fans of such a consistently great program.
Not saying this about anyone here but I think, caught up in the Bill Self era that a large number of fans definitely take it for granted.
KU is having “KU problems” this year. So…not a dominant team. Still merely top 20 on kenpom. All while missing the projected preseason starter at the 2.
Most programs have a true down year here and there. Calipari has missed the tournament at Kentucky, Coach K missed once at Duke, UNC has rough patches etc… Even strong resources don’t guarantee success, you also need a great coach. At some point in the future when we are far past the Self era KU will have a true rough patch, and Self will be remembered even more fondly.
-
Bill Self teams tend to rise to the occasion. All those tough games coming up, I think we’ll see better play and perhaps be surprised when it’s over. Just trying to stay optimistic. We’re 16-3, 1 game out of first in the league, the sky isn’t falling but they are in the mud and need to keep grinding to get where we all want this team to be.
But everything starts with guys getting healthy and that’s squarely at the feet of Hunter and Kevin, our two best players. We need them healthy, or things could spiral, and this could be like no other year we’ve experienced under Self. We cannot afford a serious injury; we’re seeing we are not that good with guys who are playing through minor/nagging things either. The margin for error is zero with a lot of things with this team.
Inserting Furphy into the starting lineup has been a major positive move but perhaps now the team is searching again for its identity with him playing major minutes. I think the coaches should be pushing to extend his role even further in the offense. He’s in the perfect spot to produce without pressure due to the amount of attention Hunter/Kev demand. He should be getting more then 6 shots in a game.
-
Do we consider 2012 and 2022 to be ‘down years’? 2022 we had 6 losses, maybe Dayton was a bad loss…kind of. They got destroyed by Kentucky in AFH. Lost 4 league games, 2 by 10 points just 2 weeks before conference tournament. Yet of course they won it all. 2012 I never think of that team as a juggernaut, also lost 6 reg season games, several clunkers including Davidson in the Sprint Center. Duke/Kentucky early on, infamous loss to Duke in Maui with TT turnovers and calls not favoring us. But 3 losses in the league and 1 in the league tournament made it kind of a down year in my mind.
My point, seemingly when we have years like those described or like this year we face an early exit from the dance. Am I right/wrong??
-
@BShark said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
@wissox said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
@dylans we’re blessed basketball wise to be fans of such a consistently great program.
Not saying this about anyone here but I think, caught up in the Bill Self era that a large number of fans definitely take it for granted.
KU is having “KU problems” this year. So…not a dominant team. Still merely top 20 on kenpom. All while missing the projected preseason starter at the 2.
Most programs have a true down year here and there. Calipari has missed the tournament at Kentucky, Coach K missed once at Duke, UNC has rough patches etc… Even strong resources don’t guarantee success, you also need a great coach. At some point in the future when we are far past the Self era KU will have a true rough patch, and Self will be remembered even more fondly.
Plus another one to add, Gonzaga not even top 25 how long has it been since they have not been some where in the top 25 ? - -They are having a rough time
-
@wissox said in Is this KU team "lucky" to be 13-1 after Saturday:
@dylans we’re blessed basketball wise to be fans of such a consistently great program.
Were blessed very true, plus we are very spoiled fans. We have rough stretch’s and we panic - - -me included, lots of 2nd guessing goes on , from players to Coach’s to Ma Kettle cooking possum. Like has been mentioned by BShark when you think about it every team goes through rough stretch’s at some point. Hell Kentucky lost to South Carolina last night , not only lost but got curb stomped by 17- - Kentucky is/or was the 6th ranked team and got curb stomped. Kentucky fans are ready to string Coach Cal up- -from one loss. They do that after every loss. Just the nature of fans I guess. – When we lose , just doesn’t happen that often and when we do - - people think the moon going to fall from the night sky, the Earth stands still - -It’s going to be ok , I’m telling myself that just as much for myself as anyone else , these are 19-20 yr old kids— -it happens. Like I posted earlier, saw last night that this year the top ten ranked teams have lost twenty two times to unranked teams, the most in AP history, We just got to bring our A game – night in – -Night out
