2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc
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@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@Jethro Well Jalen has 0 so I’d say Juan.
Trick question- they’re both tied … with ZERO.
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O-fer this season. In the past, Juando has had a couple memorable dunks (OK, maybe just one). Wilson has no memorable dunks. Wilson’s legs are huge, like oaken logs, solid for horizontal movement or cabin construction, but like lead weights for leaping.
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On the other hand, Selden clanked more dunks off the rim than the two of them combined have made dunks
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@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
If KJ somehow becomes a threat to score we will be very dangerous.
If KJ had just a bit more polishing he would be outrageously lethal in the post… and also against footers.
What he lacks in size he makes up with strength, speed, and hustle.
Give him some post moves… head/body/ball fakes… knowledge how to use his body to go into the defenders and then create just enough scoring space…
He would foul out all but a few 5s and all 5s would be afraid to guard him.
And he would OWN the boards!
Yes… that lethal!
Hey KJ… you out there? Read the book about Chab (Charles Barkley)!
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My question: when is this team going to become even mildly prolific at lobs? Holy smoly, guys…
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Stats are tools and useful to some degree… but somewhere they lose value… kind of like driverless cars. So the car approaches an intersection with someone running a red light… there is a 70 yr old woman crossing with her groceries and a skateboarder boarding across… which does it decide to potentially kill?
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@drgnslayr Are you saying you don’t agree with my proposed starting line up using statistics only? Wow. That hurts.
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
If KJ somehow becomes a threat to score we will be very dangerous.
If KJ had just a bit more polishing he would be outrageously lethal in the post… and also against footers.
What he lacks in size he makes up with strength, speed, and hustle.
Give him some post moves… head/body/ball fakes… knowledge how to use his body to go into the defenders and then create just enough scoring space…
He would foul out all but a few 5s and all 5s would be afraid to guard him.
And he would OWN the boards!
Yes… that lethal!
Hey KJ… you out there? Read the book about Chab (Charles Barkley)!
I think a large part of us being better with KJ is simply the fact that he isn’t playing inside. If you are posting a guy up he better be good at it. This way we keep the paint open.
I think rebounding will always be an issue for him. He tries so that isn’t the issue.
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@BShark Exactly, effort isn’t the issue. But it might be about WHEN he tries. He goes after rebounds but is almost never in position to get a rebound. This could be a result of him playing outside of the pain on purpose to open up the lane for drives or just not doing his work early enough when the shot goes up or even earlier.
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
My question: when is this team going to become even mildly prolific at lobs? Holy smoly, guys…
I think they should calm down on the lob until they practice it some more. Execution of that play has lacked because of chemistry etc. I don’t think our guards have done a good job of selling the lob and I don’t think our bigs have done a good job of catching and finishing either. It’s looked rough lately especially since teams know its coming
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@BeddieKU23 They looked good the first few games but since then the defense has been playing more to stop the lob than the actual guy with the ball. We’ve thrown them anyway.
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We have to remember KJ hasn’t spent a lot of time playing or practicing exclusively as the 5 so I do think some of his issues are still comfort and game reps. Rebounding is not a strength of his and its weird because we never have to question effort but you do wonder what additional effort it will take to get him to be more effective
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Yup film has hurt them recently. I think it comes from teams not respecting our guards to finish at the rim. Harris is getting a paint touch and he’s probably looking to dish it. Bobby hasn’t been a scorer at all and really likes to look for that lob when he gets to the middle of the paint area. Yesufu is the guy I think a defense would respect to shoot it and is someone that would have an easier time baiting the big to hedge a step more to set it up. I just think they need practice to figure it out
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@BeddieKU23 Offensive rebounding is more of an effort stat and he is fine there. Dave was a better offensive rebounder as well but he wasn’t abysmal defensively.
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For sure KJ is pretty good at those 50/50 balls on offense.
I think Dave’s size especially in the latter parts of his Jr & Sr seasons became a factor with him rebounding better. He got smarter and through game reps he learned positioning.
KJ doesn’t have that luxury (size) & he’s playing out of position first and foremost. Game reps and experience though should sharpen him a bit with boarding
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Being undersized helps on the offensive boards, but hurts on the defensive glass.
On defensive rebounds, you have to get physical with your man and box him out. Trouble is, if you are significantly undersized (and at 6-7, KJ is very undersized for a 5), it can be hard to hold that position because you have to move that guy out, otherwise you don’t have an advantage when the ball comes off the rim.
On offensive rebounds, though, being undersized doesn’t necessarily hurt you because you can get off box outs with your quickness and hit gaps to knife in for rebounds before guys can make contact with you. Having big guys always helps on the glass, but it helps more on defense because if you get superior position, you have an advantage.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
I think they should calm down on the lob until they practice it some more. Execution of that play has lacked because of chemistry etc. I don’t think our guards have done a good job of selling the lob and I don’t think our bigs have done a good job of catching and finishing either. It’s looked rough lately especially since teams know its coming
It’s just a great indicator of how far we are away from playing good team offense. Timing, spacing, connecting… these guys need practice time… but down the road… wow, what potential!
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KJ is out of position for most rebounds because we use him on ball screens. And then he should slash better to the boards on the shot and understand where rebounds are going to go. The great rebounders see the shot and have a very good idea of where it will go.
He should take advantage of his build. Being short, but built strong, can help him because his center of gravity is low. Wish he had a bigger butt, though. Stick it out there and create spacing! lol
I’m celebrating the game tonight by watching it on my new 85" tv! No more squinting on a 75"er! lol
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
I think they should calm down on the lob until they practice it some more. Execution of that play has lacked because of chemistry etc. I don’t think our guards have done a good job of selling the lob and I don’t think our bigs have done a good job of catching and finishing either. It’s looked rough lately especially since teams know its coming
It’s just a great indicator of how far we are away from playing good team offense. Timing, spacing, connecting… these guys need practice time… but down the road… wow, what potential!
We saw some improved lob play last night. I also think Seton Hall did a poor job defensively against that. We’ll get teams as we’ve seen already that won’t fall for it but it was nice to see improvement there
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Updated post Seton Hall Shellacking
PER’s
Udeh the biggest riser after his 10pt performance. Adams also saw a nice bump. After averaging 11.25 on the PER his first two seasons, Harris at 17.9 really lets you know how much his game has improved this season. Harris is first in the Big-12 in Assists, Steals, Steals per game.
Points
Jalen Wilson needs 51 points to join the 1,000 pt scoring club. He’ll get there in the next 2-3 games. Zach still with a goose egg on the season.
Kenpom
Nice jump after a solid win.
Torvik, Sagarin, Massey, Bracket Matrix.
Added Torvik, KU also jumped up after last night’s win.
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The next time I watch one of our 3 pt shots come up short while the shooter stays outside the arc, I am probably going to hurt myself hitting the tv.
The only person who has direct knowledge of a shot’s likely distance is the shooter. Follow your short shot, get the rebound.
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@mayjay said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
The next time I watch one of our 3 pt shots come up short while the shooter stays outside the arc, I am probably going to hurt myself hitting the tv.
The only person who has direct knowledge of a shot’s likely distance is the shooter. Follow your short shot, get the rebound.
I’d guess coaching and game plan come into play here. Self has likely drilled into their heads that certain positions/players have to or be ready to leak back to stop any breaks.
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Two positive notes on 3 pt shooting so far.
Jalen Wilson is well on his way to a career year shooting from 3. Currently at 35.7% on 20 makes, he had 40 makes as a freshman & 30 makes as a Sophomore. We are 9 games into the season and he’s already halfway to his career best. He’s improved his shot a lot. I also think he’s capable of shooting 75%+ from the line, currently at 73%. Jalen’s already been to the FT line 56 times & is on pace for over 200 attempts on the season which would double his career best.
McCullar sitting at 37% from 3 on the season (10/27). As a career 30% shooter from 3 before coming to KU this is huge. His shot looked great last night from the right corner. Also trending to set career best marks on makes and %. Positive stuff for Kevin.
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After last yr, I am really pleasantly surprised with JW! I think Och was a great influence on him.
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@mayjay said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
The next time I watch one of our 3 pt shots come up short while the shooter stays outside the arc, I am probably going to hurt myself hitting the tv.
The only person who has direct knowledge of a shot’s likely distance is the shooter. Follow your short shot, get the rebound.
Guaranteed that’s deliberate on Self’s part as part of his team philosophy for this season. No team, unless they’re just absolutely clueless, which this group isn’t, is that bad without it being intentional strategy to get back on defense.
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Self usually has a number he sends back, depending on who they play.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I would buy that explanation if the shooters were breaking the other way. They have just been stanfing there until the ball clanks. Often they get tovthe other end after the ball. Thus…grrrrr.
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Updated post Methzu beatdown!! Everyone likes us again. Thanks Methy!
Points
Jalen continues his torrid pace. He is 6th in D1 in scoring at 22.1ppg, 32nd in rebounds per game at 9.4 per. Top 3 player in the Country and its not debatable anymore. He has a great shot at 1,000 points Saturday against Indiana. Harris is tied for 8th nationally in assists per game. Gradey Dick is 6th nationally in freshman scoring per game. Kevin has a legit shot at 1,000 point club this season with his recent play.
PER
JANK’s 3 put him back on top where he belongs. Kevin is rising quickly to really good status.
KENPOM
We good?
OTHERS
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I wonder if Jank got extra points for the range of the three he hit? That thing was DEEP!! It was clearly a message that he’s still ready for the league.
Based on these stats I’d consider benching Harris and starting Jank in his place next game.
Little surprised KJ didn’t get more of a bump.
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Ken Pom is not to be trusted.
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What’s the o/u for Jalen’s first dunk?
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@wissox said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Ken Pom is not to be trusted.
You certainly can’t predict results from his list. I’m always baffled where he comes up with strength of schedule. He has us 44th, and has Purdue 25th. We have played Dook, Wisconsin and Tennessee. Purdue has played Dook, Gonzaga, and Marquette. So, throw out Dook since we both beat them, and you have Tenn (6th) vs. Gonzaga (15th), and we have Wisky (22nd), vs. Marquette (unranked). They’ve also played a 2-9 FSU team. And they’re 19 spots ahead of us.
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@Jethro Yes, the SOS thing is baffling. It really doesn’t like teams that play defense is my observation. Wisconsin plays D but doesn’t exactly play UNLV Tarkball. So currently they sit 35th, while they have a 3-1 record against teams ahead of them, with the 1 loss of course being the OT defeat to us. Obviously then Wake Forest says well we beat Wiscy and they’re up there ahead of us so what gives? It’s why, I think, there needs to be some human element, as there is of course. I hate Iowa as much as any college out there and KP loves them. Iowa hasn’t visited the Sweet 16 since last century, heck, last millenium. Yet KP will keep them up there.
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Should be a fun update.
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Should be a fun update.
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Probably won’t get to it until tomorrow. We good tho!
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@BeddieKU23 Last few games have really changed the outlook with the computers. Great to have Self back.
I of course cheated and already looked but figure this thread is your thing.
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Feel free to post whatever you want my friend. Just busy today to run all the numbers but will have it up early AM Monday
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I think it matters WHEN we both played who we played. I’m not sure if it crystalizes our opponent’s ranking at the time we play them and then weights that moving forward… or goes back on our earlier opponents and updates their current ranking and applies it to our game?
Then it matters how our opponents’ opponents perform… and in theory, our opponents’ opponents’ opponents… and so on and so forth.
Sounds complicated… and it is… but a computer can mash any numbers you want so you can manipulate it and tell the story you want it to tell. Ooops… I gave away the punchline! lol
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IU fans raving about the Phog experience. It just blew them away:
https://twitter.com/AmandaPavelka3/status/1604678225963139072
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As promised, update after the Blowout victory over Indiana. That was fun!
Points
Jalen is 16 pts from 1,000. He definitely didn’t have his best performance Saturday. If he did Indiana would have started the bus home a lot earlier.
PER
Cam Makes one shot and now he thinks he’s Jank!
Kenpom
This is now a Top 10 Self Era team via Kenpom. Movin on up
Torvik, Massey, Sagarin, Bracket Matrix
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Thanks for putting together this data.
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Gradey and Jalen have VERY STRONG PER for non-bigs. Really insane for Gradey considering he is mostly a jump shooter too (I know he does some other things here and there but mostly).
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McCullar has 14 steals in his last 3 games. He’s turning out to be an amazing pick up.
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Creating the 3 headed monster at Wing. Self the last 2 years has bullied teams with elite wing play throwing waves of 6’6-6’8 wings at teams and there’s nothing they can do about it.
Kevin is a big reason why this team is trending up. He still has his moments like early in the Indiana game, but he’s been better than I even imagined. He wasn’t this good at Tech, flashed but has really thrived here so far.
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Yeah its crazy the balance they have right now according to PER. Bobby saw a nice jump from this past game in really his first extended minutes of the season. He’s capable of ascending up to the level others are at.
Harris at 18.6 is crazy, +7 from his career avg there. Let’s you know how good he is playing. Adams, same deal, +5 from a year ago. McCullar +4.5 from last season. These guys have improved a lot
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@BeddieKU23 Kevin is finally playing for a real coach
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@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 Kevin is finally playing for a real coach
Ooof, that’s good and so true
