The Word is Out
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Sadly enough you’re all correct. Bill may just be in denial…
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http://www.rockchalktalk.com/2015/11/19/9760480/2011-broke-bill-self
Like I said This program is like an aging sports car that WAS the fastest most expensive most awesome car on the road. It can still hang around in a race but it needs some work to get it back to its glory days!
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And why does it not surprise me that, once again, @jaybate-1.0 resorts to name-calling and ad hominem?
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@KUinLA Good cite (nowithstanding Jaybate diatribe) as well as one posted by @Statmachine . I’m taking the liberty of reposting here I posted after the game in another thread, making many of the same points - alas, even using the tired “insanity” cliche…
"So many threads on last night’s game - good observations and analysis throughout. My takeaway. It wasn’t an embarrassing loss - MSU is a very good team and very well coached. In the abstract, losing a tight game to the Spartans on a neutral court isn’t anything to be ashamed of.
What is disconcerting is that we’ve seen this movie before - the second half especially was eerily similar to each of our losses down the stretch last year. Blowing leads, shortening the bench in the second half (notwithstanding that using the bench contributed to getting leads in the first place), abandoning any semblance of running an offense (resorting to Bad Ball), and failing to get ANY defensive stops.
Admittedly, one game is not much of a sample set, but it sure looks like that notwithstanding more experience and a supposedly deeper bench, 2016 will be a replay of 2015 (and '13 and '14) in too many respects:
Limited capability to execute the high-low; no low post scoring threat other than Perry (and although he got his points, he still struggled to score against the Spartan bigs).
No scheming for good three point looks.
Mason (and Graham) driving into the paint without looking to dish.
Selden driving in a straight line and flailing his arms when he gets anywhere near the hoop.
Missing bunnies and inability to finish at the rim.
Inability to protect the rim.
Inability to get ANY stops in crunch time.
Too many minutes going to Jamari and Landon.
Too few minutes going to younger, but clearly more talented players (in stark contrast to the Dukes, UKs, and MSUs of the world) who need the PT to be able to develop and overcome early freshmen mistakes.
As naseum, ad infinitum…
The bottom line is that we were outscored by 17 points over the last 9:30 of the game. We gave up 29 points during that stretch - works out to better than 120 ppg! Again, lack of offensive execution, and, more importantly, defensive breakdown very much like 4 or 5 of our losses late last year.
Do we have talent? Yes. Do we have depth? Yes. But we also have real demonstrable limitations, which means that we have to play to our strengths, rather than playing into the opponents hands.
As a result of recruiting failures running several years now, we cannot run the high-low effectively - it’s Fools Gold to try to do so. It was the hallmark of Self teams during his first decade, but we haven’t had anyone able to score consistently and efficiently down low against good competition since 2012.
Unfortunately, we are also not an especially good defensive team. Our perimeter players are perhaps just bit above average. None can consistently stop penetration and Mason and Graham are undersized. I continue to be of the view, based on 3 years of evidence, that Selden is actually a minus defender against better, quicker players; but definitely not a stopper. That puts more pressure on the interior defenders, but the sad fact is that we have virtually no interior defensive presence. Certainly no rim protection (other than Mickelson). Opposing guards and wings clearly don’t fear attacking the paint against us.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Because we do have more talent and athleticism than most teams, we will win 20+ games. But we won’t consistently win against better competition unless we (HCBS) can change stripes, adapt and play to our strengths. That means on the offensive end opening up the court and taking advantage of our speed, ability to shoot threes (with BG and Svi), which in turn should open up things for Perry down low. It means applying more pressure on the defensive end, shortening the clock and not allowing other teams to get into their sets as quickly. And, both mean taking advantage of our depth to wear down other teams and change personnel on the fly to take advantage of mismatches."
All of this needs to be in context - HCBS is a Hall of Fame coach, we have a great APR (something truly to be proud of) and yes, we are spoiled by success. But you can’t rest on laurels or fail to adapt to circumstances. Looking at it objectively, the past 3 years have seen under performance in recruiting (at least in terms of getting highly ranked players to commit early to KU), esp. quality bigs, and under performance (relative to prior years) in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and, not surprisingly, under performance in the NCAAs and against the best competition. We are already behind almost everyone else in 2016 recruiting and unless there is a change in approach to strategy, tactics and use of personnel, it seems like deja vu all over again…
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@DCHawker your post made me go back and watch the last two minutes of the Sweet 16 game against Michigan. I’m gonna go put my head in the oven now.
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Are you saying pro journo/public figures you toxic dump here are off-limits to satirize and critique?
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And let me be the first to welcome back the one and only @KUinLA/@DCHawker!
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@MoonwalkMafia Never EVER re-watch the last 2 minutes of the Michigan game. What the hell you thinking? Watch the @Iowa State game from that year or something.
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@DCHawker Ain’t holdin my breath he’ll change; same story, same team (slightly less without Wigs or Oubre), just a different year.
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This is the right story for certain fans to read… the fans that are afraid Self is going to jump to the NBA.
Self is a great coach. But he simply isn’t a NBA coach. It is not his style to change and be opportunistic. This is the reason why his phone isn’t ringing off the hook from NBA management.
Every year in the NBA they set records for shooting more 3s. Here is why:
“A great coach can out-coach most other coaches… but a great coach can never out-coach math.”
That is mine. I’m not quoting anyone.
Stats are never the complete story, but they are extremely telling and are a breakdown of the actual final score. So… there is plenty of reality in stats, regardless if we want to believe them or not, or even weigh them heavily in our opinions.
Self is trying to out-coach math and it isn’t going to work.
Perimeter shot is worth 3… inside the line is worth 2. You can afford to fail at a higher percentage from the perimeter and still outscore the strategy of shooting inside.
What makes it worse is having a poor post team that seems to not be capable of scoring at a high rate inside.
The tables have turned… and the real “fool’s gold” is relying on getting your points inside… especially with this Jayhawk team that has poor post scoring and one of the best perimeter shooting gang in D1! Math doesn’t lie and seldom does it deceive… and the one thing you can count on from NBA management is their ability to count beans.
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Fascinating that after one significant game this season, writers are already picking up on KU’s struggles on offense. Maybe they hang out on this forum. Or maybe Self’s hang ups with creativity on offense and the three ball are just that painfully obvious?
Man…I’d love to see the old dog learn a new trick, but like most of you have said, not holding my breath. (But shaking my head.)
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“Or maybe Self’s hang ups with creativity on offense and the three ball are just that painfully obvious?”
I have family members from other big schools, including Duke. Our offensive struggles have been known for quite some time. I get to hear about it every Christmas.
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My Friend couldn’t agree more with your post. I figure as this season progresses I will become hated on KUBuckets. I don’t hate HCBS, In fact I love the guy. Yet I just don’t think he can adapt to this current KU team. He wants to run his stuff even though he doesn’t have the players. I was so hoping the WUG would have taught him, yet it seems it didn’t.
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@ajvan mayb the press will drive the point home. Just need a few recruits bringing it up in in home visits and maybe, just maybe, we’ll see some change.
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@drgnslayr is it loss of asst coaches who had standing with Self to sway some adaptation. Or, is it the recruiting failures or, OAD turnover that has just ascerbates the situation on the inside out game?
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@KUinLA I think he nails the problem whether his prescription is right or not I don’t know.
I hope the press helps push the adaptation needed.
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The tables have turned… and the real “fool’s gold” is relying on getting your points inside… especially with this Jayhawk team that has poor post scoring and one of the best perimeter shooting gang in D1! Math doesn’t lie and seldom does it deceive… and the one thing you can count on from NBA management is their ability to count beans."
PHOF!
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“@drgnslayr is it loss of asst coaches who had standing with Self to sway some adaptation. Or, is it the recruiting failures or, OAD turnover that has just ascerbates the situation on the inside out game?”
Basketball is a changing game. It is a fast-moving river, not a still lake.
The game has changed considerably just since Self has been with Kansas. The hi/lo made a lot of sense when he came here. Post players were still post players. Every team wanted to sign a 7-foot Goliath that could barely dribble and do anything but make a couple of back-to-the-basket moves.
Those days are largely over. It is all being dictated by the NBA. Players see the “pot of gold” (not “fool’s gold”) on the 3-pt line. And they were right. In the NBA (and even in D1) a typical-made 3 trumps a typical-made dunk by crowd approval. The game has moved away from the rim. Last year… Golden State won it all, and they did it by having great perimeter shooting. And… for the first time… they often turned down an easy basket at the rim (a dunk) for the risk of gaining an extra point by throwing it out of the paint to an open shooter on the trey line.
What all of this means is big men don’t want to play like the big men of yesterday. They want to be the next Kevin Durant… popping 3s. So… there goes the attraction for big men to embrace Self’s hi/lo… it is a dinosaur strategy living in the times of high-speed computers. I can’t believe Self can’t see that.
I think he is adapting some new twists on the inside-out game. His post players are in different spots and often on the move and fed the ball while in motion. There is some definite potential to win games with this strategy, but I am still uncertain how it will sell Kansas to big man recruits. There is no verdict on his twists. Unfortunately, it will take time and success to prove it works to recruits today. I don’t think there is time to renegade a new strategy. Within just a year or two, our program could fall considerably and then have to deal with that more than the new offensive strategy.
I think we need to adapt to a contemporary-style offense that recruits are familiar with. This is no time for us to renegade a new flavor of offense. We will be toast before it can ever prove itself. Then it may be decades (or never) for us to fight our way back up to the top. Meanwhile… teams like Kentucky and Duke will solidify their grip on owning college basketball. The time is running out for us. Between now and the next 2-5 years, we will either hang with the super elite programs, or we will be knocked down a level… and with the times how they are now, it will be next to impossible to lift us back up to that top tier.
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@drgnslayr True dat. The game has moved on.
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@KUinLA said:
My suggestion for the coaching staff is to look at the two following images with an open mind:
Trying to overcome your weaknesses is a waste of time, according to Marcus Buckingham and Donald O. Clifton, Ph.D., of the Gallup Organization, and authors of the book NOW, DISCOVER YOUR STRENGTHS (Free Press, 2001). “Casting a critical eye on our weaknesses . . . will only help us prevent failure. It will not help us reach excellence,” they write in their thought-provoking book, the follow-up to the outstanding and best-selling Gallup work, FIRST, BREAK ALL THE RULES (Simon & Schuster, 1999).
Most organizations fail to achieve excellence, the authors contend, because they also fall into the “overcome your weaknesses” trap. Companies do a poor job of tapping the potential already present on their payroll because they try to make employees into something they’re not-at the expense of exploiting individuals’ innate talents.
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@drgnslayr Golden State won it because they were stacked.
Defensive Player of the Year candidate plus one of the best living defensive wing players. They were a two-way team. They also have a best-in-league point guard who is pretty darn good at dishing and penetration.
Golden State won because they were freakin stacked guys.
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Why does Self always get heat for hating on 3’s, a lot of our end of half, or end of game plays, or when our offense is struggling, usually involves getting a good shooter open for a 3…
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He gets hated on because, while he has a lot of creative plays that can get guys open for threes, he only uses them at the end of half and the end of games! It’s like he only allows himself and his players to use that creative strength for 4 minutes of a 40 minute game. That’s what is so frustrating. Self has the ability, but his stubborn devotion to a system has stymied what can, at times be a very creative basketball mind.
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@KUSTEVE yeah, I saw that too. Didn’t want to post it lest I incur the wrath of jaybate, lol.
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@Second-Prize I don’t think he ever said he hates the three. He has said he doesn’t like to be reliant upon the three
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@KUinLA I didn’t post that to pile on, by any means. I have friends that follow other college teams that are openly laughing at the “fire Bill Self” crowd. It’s really funny to them. I’m like you - I want to see the 3 ball every game …I think we have a chance to be prolific…
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Isn’t it great for all of us to be a major College Coach ? I love it, not sure why we haven’t collected all those thousands of dollars. I just don’t understand why we haven’t collected, after all we all have the answers to the Team’s problems, why the hell is Self still there? Any of us could do a better job he is an old fossil, stuck in his way. It would be just so easy for ANY of use to get the guys to run the right offense from our recliners, Ice Cold beer in one hand a big bag of Nachos or pizza sitting on the other side HELL YA. Let me lease out a charter and we go down their and DEMAND they fire Bill. that will work. We can coach the team as a committee I mean we have it all figured out, what’s wrong with this team, not meeting expectations, we all know- - -IT’S BILL, get out. Lets see freshen my memory, though tell me again, how many of us having D-1 coaching experience at a blue blood basketball program? - - -let me hear ya- - - -no, no not everyone at once- - shout out. Ok, ok how many of us have experience coaching major college ball period?- - -HOLLER how many? Ok how about devision -2 SHOUT OUT( chirp- - -chirp- - -chirp dam dead silence huh. Ok how about biddy ball- - - YMCA ball- - -Co-ED ball? awesome. that’s ok don’t trip don’t even trip we still got the answers, the solutions, we just got to get that bull headed shit to listen to us WE KNOW what the problem is, I mean come on Bill. All you have to do is ask, we can tell ya- - -I mean we know just as, we will tell ya, we’ve told everyone else, I mean we all rub one anothers back and agree, give one another pats and say how stupid you are DAM COME ON. I mean Bill come on, tell me whats your winning pct is again? tell me have you won any National championships Bill? ummmm oh, you have? well, well umm ok. ok so smart ass tell me how many league champion ships have you won? oh 11 ummmm- - -well ummm- - -ya well ok, smart ass tell me this how many home game shave you lost since you’ve been here? OH- - -9 ummmm ------ ummmmm well dam I mean w lost a game this year to another powerhouse that’s unexcusable, we are surely doomed, what you got to say about that? Ya, Ya, Ya, I know North Carolina has 1 loss to- - - - Northern Iowa, Ya, Ya, Ya, I know Duke has a loss and looked like crap more then once Ya Ya, Ya I know Indiana has lost But we have lost a game to Michigan State, Michigan State of ALL PEOPLE who the hell are they? what? OH the nu 3 team in the nation? A Hall of Fame basketball coach? well dam that’s it we are coming down there now YOU ARE DONE. ok, guys got BILL straightened out, now wonder if they have room for our recliners on the sideline and a microwave? that’s where we do OUR coaching, haven’t lost a game yet. Oh does anyone have a drivers license to get there? anyone have a CAR?
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@jayballer54 I call coaching Hustle and Emergy.
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@jayballer54 We can’t all be a college bball coach, that doesn’t mean we can’t all offer unique perspectives and insight. It’s the same reason we can criticize the President or a senator for his or her decisions and systems. We all have a vested interest and the person getting critized does make mistakes. Some coaches do get worse/complacent at coaching, especially after they’ve already signed a long-term contract for the big bucks. The whole point of threads like this is to discuss and critique; if you’re uncomfortable with questioning the status quo than you can go somewhere else.
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@KUSTEVE I agree that we have a chance to be a special team this year. And I wasn’t trying to pile on–the point I was trying to make with this thread is that it’s not just a matter of a few discontents on this board anymore. Other media outlets are beginning to comment on Kansas’ shortcomings. Hence, 'the word is out. ’ But I could definitely see this team making a Final Four run.
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@Makeshift gee, thanks for the offer, but I think i’ll stay RIGHT HERE, not uncomfortable at all, just amused lie you said I’m just another one offer my unique perspective, just like you but thanks. I like you can state what I want , how I want that’s what’s great about America freedom of expression, speech, good for me, good for you. So let me extend the same offer to you, you don’t like what I have to say or it makes you uncomfortable the feel free to go some where else. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BAY
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LOL!!! We have jekyll and hyde for a Coach! Which coach shows up tonight?
I don’t understand why some of you all get so angry about what someone else thinks? Its not worth loosing sleep over someone voicing their frustrations with a certain player or coach. Its not like anyone’s attacking one of your family members lol! So which coach shows up for tonights game?Fools gold Bill Self ?
Or Let the guys make plays Bill Self?
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No disrespect intended. but what insight into the program do you exactly or actually have? TTBOMK, the closest thing to “insight” we have is @ralster who attended Coach Self camp and actually talked to the man…the rest, me included, only offer conjectures and WAGs. You are fairly new in this forum and a little early to tell other members -that have considerably more posts than you do- to go post somewhere else…don’t you think?
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You are on a roll!
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Golden State has lots of talent… but their post isn’t the top of the league (at playing low post).
Even some of their bigs shoot good from trey. Green, Iguodala, Barnes…
I would hardly say their stack is a traditional stack. Bogut is their traditional center and he is their low post presence.
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@drgnslayr The case for NBA big men not playing like those of the past is not nearly as strong as one might think. Although PFs probably shoot 3s more than they have in the past, this is NOT the case for centers. I have gone through the list of current centers and their backups as regards the average number of 3 point shots per game that they have taken over their careers. The only ones who shot more than .3 attempts per game are:
Al Horford of the Hawks at .34 (up to 3.4 this year)
Jared Sullinger of the Celtics at 2.25
Kelly Olynyk of the Celtics at 2.24
Andrea Bargnani backup for the Nets at 3.4
Spencer Hawes backup for Hornets at 1.48
Karl-Anthony Towns of the Timberwolves at .43
Gorgui Dieng of the Timberwolves at .5
LaMarcus Aldredge of the Spurs at .34
Boris Diaw of the Spurs at 1.37
Matt Bonner of the Spurs at 2.47
Draymond Green of the Warriors at 2.42. I am listing Green since he plays center when they go small although most of his attempts are from his PF position when Bogurt or Ezeli are in the game.
With the exception of the San Antonio Spurs and the Boston Celtics no other team has key contributors who shoot more than 1 per game. Most of the rest of the centers shoot in the .05 to .1 range. This is not much more than has been the case in the past. I would guess that most of the shots are in desperation at the end of the shot clock. The primary reason for this is that they are not very good (that is being very generous) as most percentages are lower than 20% and a lot have an average of 0%.
