4 YEAR SENIORS VS OAD'S
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Courtesy of Jesse Newell
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@Statmachine Cool article. Thanks for sharing.
I can’t say that the article tells us much we don’t already know. 4 year seniors have been great under Self. Jeff Withey, Releford, Sherron, Tyshawn Taylor. All of these guys helped KU go to the Finals. Hard to complain about that.
The OAD’s numbers are not that bad, though. BMac was certainly on his way to helping his team go to the Final 4 as far as I’m concerned. It took the biggest collapse in KU history to keep that team out of the Elite 8 against a Florida team I am convinced we would have murdered. The Wiggins / JoJo year was derailed by JoJo’s late season injury. I know most of us feel that Stanford doesn’t really pose as much of a threat if our 7 foot tall baby Olajuwon is in the game but it happened so I guess we move on.
Selby was injured. Cliff was suspended. Oubre took his time figuring things out and once he did he was a pretty good player and almost a lottery pick. Xavier had a very solid year as he started for the #1 team in the country all year. Not bad.
To me the OAD guys are a necessary evil. We all hate that these kids are using KU (and other top programs) as a stepping stone but you have to get used to it. If we want to win championships it is just part of the process. Look at Duke last year. They are not probably crying a whole lot about losing their 3 best players as they cut down the nets. If we go to the Final 4 this year and lose Diallo no one will mind.
This year we have what should be a great mix of seniors (Ellis, Bam Bam, Mickelson) other upperclassmen and a presumed OAD in Diallo and maybe a TAD in Bragg. It is exactly what every top program should hope for. Depth, veterans and one or two guys who are going to be in the NBA shortly after using college as a 1 year preview for draft night.
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Every season is a crapshoot. The goal should be to be among the top 5-8 teams in the country. That puts you in the national title conversation.
After that, it’s all about matchups, timing and a little bit of luck.
You could argue that it the Xavier team doesn’t lose to UNI they probably win the title that year. Unfortunately, a once in a lifetime performance from UNI toppled KU. But then, that’s the danger of a single elimination tournament. One bad game (or an opponents great game) could be enough to end it.
I am not a huge believer in 4 year guys if they are not along the lines of an Ellis or a Kaminsky. Mickelson and Traylor won’t be big contributors if this KU team is as good as it can be. Those minutes should be going to Diallo and Bragg. If Mickelson and Traylor are getting those minutes, it probably means we aren’t as good as we hoped. They may be significant in off the court roles or with intangibles, but for on court production, we need our best guys.
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This is a complicated topic… but for what it is worth, Jesse did an admirable job of trying to quantify it enough to reach a conclusion.
First… What sticks out to me was Sherron Collins. He produced pretty well all 4 years! Are we flying his number in AFH? If not… that guy’s jersey needs to hang with the greats, because he not only gave his guts for 4 years and produced in all of them, he was the guy that really staged the come back against Memphis that set up Chalmer’s shot. All of this together is why Sherron is on my all-time Top 5 list of Jayhawks.
OADs definitely have their place in all of this. They fill talent holes immediately. That is what their worth is. No waiting around for 4 years of development to get a possible producer in a slot. They can often be that last piece needed to create a Final Four contender. I wouldn’t want to be a revolving door team like Kentucky… but one or two is fine to fill in the talent gaps as long as they don’t create issues with the team coming together as a team. The very rare OADs, like Wigs, may cost us because of all the media chaos. It must be hard for the guys to focus when the cameras are always around.
I was amazed to see how much better BMac did over Wigs. And in Wigs single year, Self forced him to take it to the rim a lot more than he did with BMac. BMac was a shy shooter, especially compared to Wigs, who was by no means a gunner, but he better followed Self’s demands to get more shots up than did BMac. I recall Self constantly pleading with BMac to shoot more. I still can’t believe our coaching staff didn’t work with Wigs on a very simple pull up, that would have netted him oodles of points, while setting him up on some finishes at the rim.
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@drgnslayr Here’s the unofficial list of qualifications to get a jersey hung in the south rafters of AFH…http://kuinfo.ku.edu/cgi-bin/info.shtml?p=q&id=4473
I believe Self has also been quoted as saying he wants make players wait at least 5 years after they leave KU before retiring a jersey so that means Sherron and Cole are just now reaching that mark to be considered. Sherron is eligible because he was a consensus 1st team All-American his senior year. Cole Aldrich will be eligible because he was the academic All-American of the Year as a junior. Thomas Robinson will also be eligible in a couple of years because he was a consensus 1st team All-American his junior season. Those are the only 3 players right now that meet the current achievement requirements that aren’t already hanging from the rafters. Perry Ellis is going to have a chance this year if he puts together the kind of season he’s capable of having.
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to be able to win with OAD’s, you can’t be stubborn. you have to be able to go with the flow and model your team/plan to the strengths of your OADs.
Self, IMHO, is not going to be successful with OADs (as UK or Duke have been) because he is just too damn stubborn. we have seen it over and over again. he’s just not willing to change or try certain things until its too late. Classic example is the game against MI when BMac should have been in the 2nd half- instead he was on the bench and Self went with his EJ- probably one of his worst coaching decisions to date. We had no business losing that game. still hurts!
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@drgnslayr I would have to say that part of the reason BMac looked so good was all of the extra practice he was able to get. Wigs looked much better than BMac did toward the end of Big XII play.
@elpoyo I also agree that Self can be a little bit stubborn with them, but he also has a model of success that hasn’t failed yet. So, if you were him it would be hard to get out of that comfort zone. I also believe though, it takes a perfect storm for OAD guys to win the way they have. Duke had the perfect compliment of OADs come in at the same time. They had a scorer/dominant post, A tough gritty player and a floor general all come in at the same time. That mixed with talented veterans. And at that, they BARELY won it all. UK has only won that one NC with Anthony Davis. And, I’m sorry but he was by far the best player in CBB that year. You couldn’t quantify the impact he made every game. And on top of that, they had the #2 player in the draft in MKG.
We could easily be the next “stack team” with the roster spots we have opening. If we get Bolden, Ferguson and Jackson that is a scary team.
PG- Frank/Devonte
SG- Svi or Selden/Ferguson/Vick
SF- Jackson/Green
PF- Bragg/Coleby
C- Bolden/Lucas
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Good points. For a second there I forgot that BMac had a year to practice with the team. I also think he was a better trey baller in his one year versus Wigs.
Yes, Self is a stubborn coach, and he is the first to admit it… but when it is too late. I agree with Kcmatt about Self being used to having a successful model. Problem is… that successful model didn’t include sprinkling in OADs with the potential to heavily impact the game.
However… Self does change. He just doesn’t change quickly, and he doesn’t change quickly on his changes either. I do think we suffer from the consequences sometimes. Other times I think we make a gain because of his stubbornness. Sometimes his M2M DOES come around after we were getting trounced and we make a big comeback, when other coaches would have tried 3 different defenses, often falling in a deeper hole and the players losing self-confidence.
