Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season
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@wissox we can see whomever goes with flow, I usually don’t make game threads. Just trying something to turn our luck lol
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I’m fine with yours. I tried to delete and it won’t let me.
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Dont want to delete it. i like this thread too.
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We have a team that can beat anyone. This is Kev’s last hurrah. I hope he plays like it, and Dajuan and Hunter do as well. Frankly I dont want to hear them talking about next year. This team can win it all. It can drop a couple more, but has to lock in and focus on the big prize.
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@approxinfinity Kevin is a big key to This team but I’m worried with all the side show stuff that has came out about his parents not wanting him to play and such. Do we really have to go to Houston Saturday?
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@kjayhawks One thing to get excited for with the Houston game is that if we win it, I feel like we have an outside shot at the last #1 seed. Especially if the committee takes into account that Kev was out for a few losses. Winning out after that would likely put KU top 4 in q1 wins with the added bonus of 4-5 of those wins being against the top 5 of the NET.
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@MR11 said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
@kjayhawks One thing to get excited for with the Houston game is that if we win it, I feel like we have an outside shot at the last #1 seed. Especially if the committee takes into account that Kev was out for a few losses. Winning out after that would likely put KU top 4 in q1 wins with the added bonus of 4-5 of those wins being against the top 5 of the NET.
KU has zero chance at a 1 seed this season.
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@MR11 said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
@kjayhawks One thing to get excited for with the Houston game is that if we win it, I feel like we have an outside shot at the last #1 seed. Especially if the committee takes into account that Kev was out for a few losses. Winning out after that would likely put KU top 4 in q1 wins with the added bonus of 4-5 of those wins being against the top 5 of the NET.
No. were not going to be a # 1 seed, not this year. Were projected as a 3 right now, thank GOD we won last night we could of possibly ended at a 4. – To many other teams with better years - -were the #14 th ranked team in the Nation , it’s just not going to happen be a # 1 when your not even ranked in the top 10
I mean chances are looks like werre going to be the # 6 seed in our own Conference tourney – -there is no way we are getting a # 1
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I disagree that they have zero chance at a one seed. The chances are very small and very unlikely but there is a scenario where it could happen. If they play like they did last night the rest of the way and win convincingly over Houston then stack a few more great wins in the Big 12 tourney, Iowa St and Houston again. They would be 3-0 against Houston, Beat Tennessee, Beat UConn, Beat Kentucky, and probably have the most Q1 wins in the country. Committee could definitely consider the KM injury to minimize some of the losses. Couple all this with bad showings from others looking to get the #1s by early losses in their tournaments, I definitely think it is not a zero chance. Though, its not much higher than zero, lol.
Any researchers out there want to look up the most losses a #1 seed has ever had? Curious to know that answer.
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It might actually be preferred to be a #2 in the
Midwest (Detroit)South (Dallas) vs a #1 farther from home though.
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KU was a 10 loss 2 seed in 2014 - bounced in second round by Stanford. No Embiid. Most losses I can remember a top 2 seeded KU team having.
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@RockkChalkk said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
I disagree that they have zero chance at a one seed. The chances are very small and very unlikely but there is a scenario where it could happen. If they play like they did last night the rest of the way and win convincingly over Houston then stack a few more great wins in the Big 12 tourney, Iowa St and Houston again. They would be 3-0 against Houston, Beat Tennessee, Beat UConn, Beat Kentucky, and probably have the most Q1 wins in the country. Committee could definitely consider the KM injury to minimize some of the losses. Couple all this with bad showings from others looking to get the #1s by early losses in their tournaments, I definitely think it is not a zero chance. Though, its not much higher than zero, lol.
Any researchers out there want to look up the most losses a #1 seed has ever had? Curious to know that answer.
Total number of losses is a flawed way to determine seeding. KU got a 1 seed with 7 losses last season over other teams on the 2 line with fewer losses because of their overall resume amd computer rankings. KU doesn’t have those advantages.
This year, KU is ranked too low in the computer rankings and other metrics used to seed teams to have any realistic shot at a 1 seed. Houston, UConn, and Purdue already have 1 seeds locked up leaving just 1 left. There’s too many teams with better overall resumes than KU such as Arizona, Tennessee, Marquette, Iowa St., and North Carolina that could all end up as the 4th 1 seed. Those are all teams that are going to win their conference or finish runner up to one the 1 seed locks.
Best case for KU at this point is going to be a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament by winning out. The losing road record with losses to non tournament teams UCF, KSU, and WVU (a quad 3 loss) have really hurt KU’s already not great computer numbers this year.
The committee isn’t going to factor McCullar’s injury much because our losses without him were to good teams. McCullar played in the losses to UCF, WVU, and KSU which are our 3 bad losses.
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@dylans said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
KU was a 10 loss 2 seed in 2014 - bounced in second round by Stanford. No Embiid. Most losses I can remember a top 2 seeded KU team having.
KU entered that tournament with 9 losses. The 10th loss was the Stanford game.
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Watching us come into the dance as a bit of an underdog would be different. I don’t think we deserve much more than a 3 and thats if we really finish strongly.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
@dylans said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
KU was a 10 loss 2 seed in 2014 - bounced in second round by Stanford. No Embiid. Most losses I can remember a top 2 seeded KU team having.
KU entered that tournament with 9 losses. The 10th loss was the Stanford game.
I sadly predicted that Stanford loss. They had our cryptonite that season: multiple bigs.
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In a normal year I would agree with you all, but look at the teams that they would have to jump: Arizona (swept by the only other good P12 team), Marquette (just as many losses in a weaker conference, will likely also lose 1 more), Baylor/Iowa St (could pass them in the B12 tourney), UNC (if they lose @duke tonight they are at 7 losses in a weaker conference). Tennessee is the one team that I see as hard to pass and we would probably need to see them drop a couple. But if they lose vs Kentucky and then in the P12 tournament, we will have better wins than they do and a neutral H2H win that could put us over the top. Unless the committee is changing its approach, it has shown it doesn’t care about your rank in the predictive metrics and just uses that to judge your wins/losses.
Again, I said outside shot and I will be extremely surprised if this team even wins @ Houston let alone wins the B12 tournament on top of that. But I do think the chance is still alive.
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@MR11 KU is very likely going to finish 5th or 6th in the Big 12 regular season standings. That’s not deserving of a 1 seed under any circumstances.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s use your logic for KU jumping the SEC regular season champs in seeding. Let’s say they do lose to Kentucky and then their first round SEC Tournament game to Texas A&M, Miss. St., or LSU which are the 3 teams they’re most likely to face. That puts them a 8 losses. They’ve already lost to A&M and MSU so it’s plausible.
So let’s say KU does hypothetically jump Tennessee because of their head to head win in the 3rd place game in Maui. Using that same logic, justify to me how Kansas jumps Marquette because you’re logic for jumping Tennessee doesn’t hold up when trying to justify being ahead of Marquette since Marquette has a head to head win against Kansas that came a day before that Tennessee Game.
The selection committee values regular season championships which is why KU has lost quite a few early round Big 13 Tournament games and still gotten a 1 seed.
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Yeah agreed, lose at Houston they finish 5th/6th in the B12 and dont make a 1 seed, might even be stuck at a 3 seed. KU is T-3rd/4th with a win though and with the imbalanced conference schedules, do you really think that hurts them that much? Not like Marquette is winning their conference.
I honestly think that H2H wins matter very little. Just in this specific scenario, an 8 loss Tenn vs 8 loss KU would be a very close comparison. Maybe them being conference champs with no bad losses matters more than KU’s H2H win plus better top end wins? I can’t recall any past seeding cases that would be like this where the committee has shown us what they would do here. Won’t be a slam dunk case though and think it could go either way. UNC at 7 losses is a similar situation where it would still be a close call, but there would still be a chance.
Marquette losing in the big east tournament would put them at 9 losses with their best win @ Illinois. KU’s best win in this scenario is @ Houston, miles better than anything Marquette has done. I just don’t see how this would be close enough of an evaluation for the H2H to come into play. Kolek is also out currently and if he doesn’t play in the Big East tournament, they are likely knocked for it by the committee.
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It’s pretty simple calculus if we lose at Houston.
If we win, it gets more complicated and interesting as we head toward selection Sunday.
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The interesting part of tournament seeding is we look at our record with 8 losses and say things like there’s no way we can be a #2,3,4 seed or whatever with 8 losses. Look at our bad losses, etc. So you then look at the teams who might be considered for a similar seed and that’s whom we have to compare to. Then there’s a discussion and we’d argue we’re better than that other team slotting in ahead of us or with us. In other words how do we compare to the other 8 loss teams in the rankings? Creighton, Baylor, Kentucky are the only others. Marquette, Illinois, Auburn, Washington St, SD State are those teams. Marquette waxed us of course, I’d put them above us in that list, but not sure who else? Baylor arguably yes. Auburn is a joke with 1 quad 1 win, yet Bruce Pearl seems to get great benefits in rankings most years. I know nothing of Creighton, Washington St, SD State.
In other words I’d say we’re a pretty solid lock on the 3 line and I’m fine with that.
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It will be interesting. The committee allegedly looks at wins — quad 1 wins and quad 2 etc.
How do they look at losses and how do they compare losses to wins?
That is unclear to me. I don’t think I’ve heard it discussed, however I will concede that as a KU fan I’ve never had to really pay attention to discussions about losses.
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@bskeet said in Beat Silo Tech! Lets save this season:
It will be interesting. The committee allegedly looks at wins — quad 1 wins and quad 2 etc.
How do they look at losses and how do they compare losses to wins?
That is unclear to me. I don’t think I’ve heard it discussed, however I will concede that as a KU fan I’ve never had to really pay attention to discussions about losses.
Caliber of losses is a factor, but not the only factor. NET rankings matter, conference finish matters, how a team is playing matters, injuries matter, Quad 1 wins matter.
For KU, the health of McCullar and Dickinson will be also be a factor. If Dickinson’s dislocated shoulder is season ending, then KU may drop as low as a 5 seed, but right now they’re a 3 seed.
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If Dickinson dislocated his shoulder, then his season is done. No question. Usually 6 weeks is the earliest recommendation to participate in sports.
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@patoh3 In fact, he is looking at surgery most likely as there is a high likelihood of it recurring without surgery, especially if he is going to play basketball.
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@patoh3 It depends on the severity of the dislocation. If he didn’t damage much and he can play through the pain, it’s possible he could play in the NCAA Tournament. Self did update that trainers were able to pop his shoulder back into place in the locker room which is an encouraging sign this may not be a significant injury.
The info Hunter needs first though is the current severity of the injury, the risk making the injury worse by playing through it, and his range of motion while playing through it. Until Hunter has his MRI, we won’t know.
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Yep. Good description. Been through it with a teammate who dislocated his shoulder during a tourney and he played the next day because it wasn’t severe. I was the one who popped his shoulder back… it felt weird to do it but he was screaming in pain and it was pretty obvious what had to be done. Not necessarily the case with Hunter. It could be little or even require surgery.
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