Kenpom
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I think we are top five. The season will bare that out.
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Kenpom has Memphis at #50 preseason. Hard to take this poll too seriously after seeing that. Virginia at #5 and Purdue at #7 are also head-scratchers. After Kansas beats Duke (Kenpom#4) by double-digits we’ll probably move up.
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@BShark Thinking a team that has replaced Grimes with Moss, Dedric with De Sousa, and removed KJ and Charlie Moore from its bench is going to be the same defensively just seems lazy to me.
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KirkIsMyHinrich said:
@BShark Thinking a team that has replaced Grimes with Moss, Dedric with De Sousa, and removed KJ and Charlie Moore from its bench is going to be the same defensively just seems lazy to me.
Hopefully a healthy Doke too.
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This team is carrying a chip the size of those huge stacked stones in Arches National Park. I wonder how Kenporn calculates that?
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BShark said:
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
@BShark Thinking a team that has replaced Grimes with Moss, Dedric with De Sousa, and removed KJ and Charlie Moore from its bench is going to be the same defensively just seems lazy to me.
Hopefully a healthy Doke too.
Leaner, rim protectorish … Can’t wait to see that!
Kid has a wingspan long enough to push both nuke buttons. Really hoping it’s block city.
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Some garbage pre-season stuff. about normal
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Everyone talking about Doke as a rim protector. Thing is Dave and Silvio are not slackers in that department either. Our guards better be GREAT this year defending the 3 knowing they have rim protection behind them!
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BigBad said:
Everyone talking about Doke as a rim protector. Thing is Dave and Silvio are not slackers in that department either. Our guards better be GREAT this year defending the 3 knowing they have rim protection behind them!
Strongly agree. Agbaji, Garrett and Dot were all plus defenders last year but the big problem was Dedric could be exploited.
The biggest upgrade might however Q’s minutes from last year get distributed. He had to be the worst player ever to play big minutes under Bill.
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Dedrics D
Q’s D
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I wonder if the analytics say as much as well. The eye test certainly said he was among the worst playing starter minutes. Charlie was the worst rotation player I’ve ever seen. Those two being gone help a lot
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BeddieKU23 said:
I wonder if the analytics say as much as well. The eye test certainly said he was among the worst playing starter minutes. Charlie was the worst rotation player I’ve ever seen. Those two being gone help a lot
Charlie wasn’t that much worse than Grimes. Grimes just played a lot more and when you factor in the family issues with Charlie…
And yes Grimes is EASILY the worst 27+ mpg player under Bill. Jamari’s JR year was awful but at least that was only 20 mpg.
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Dug into Sports-reference for a minute. They have PER back until 2010.
Sure Enough the two lowest players in the Self Era to play 300+ minutes is Quentin & Charlie. Quentin’s PER is 3+ points lower (8.7) then the next closet player Marcus Garrett 11.7 (17-19), Elijah Johnson 11.8 (12-13), Selden 11.9 (14-15), Selby 11.9 (14-15). Charlie’s PER was 5.7, he should have never played.
Hopefully Garrett improves from his 11.7 & 12.8 over his first two years. If he’s in the 14-15 range we have 7 guys that will make this team look good most nights. Moss was 14.0 last season, 15.7 as a Soph. Agbaji was 13, flashes and injury and he will be better. Udoka was a crazy 31.5 in limited games but was 28.9 in his only full season so we know what he’s capable of. Silvio was 22 in his half season, solid. McCormack & Dotson were solid as freshman 19.5 & 17.
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Grimes was a HUGE scouting fail. It was obvious early that he had really bad quickness and used his body in high school to an advantage. Once he was up against guys that could withstand his size he was useless.
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BigBad said:
Grimes was a HUGE scouting fail. It was obvious early that he had really bad quickness and used his body in high school to an advantage. Once he was up against guys that could withstand his size he was useless.
And his circle thinks he is a PG!! More like a wing at best.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Dug into Sports-reference for a minute. They have PER back until 2010.
Sure Enough the two lowest players in the Self Era to play 300+ minutes is Quentin & Charlie. Quentin’s PER is 3+ points lower (8.7) then the next closet player Marcus Garrett 11.7 (17-19), Elijah Johnson 11.8 (12-13), Selden 11.9 (14-15), Selby 11.9 (14-15). Charlie’s PER was 5.7, he should have never played.
Hopefully Garrett improves from his 11.7 & 12.8 over his first two years. If he’s in the 14-15 range we have 7 guys that will make this team look good most nights. Moss was 14.0 last season, 15.7 as a Soph. Agbaji was 13, flashes and injury and he will be better. Udoka was a crazy 31.5 in limited games but was 28.9 in his only full season so we know what he’s capable of. Silvio was 22 in his half season, solid. McCormack & Dotson were solid as freshman 19.5 & 17.
SO Selden was hurt and not great and still somehow quite better than Grimes.
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In all fairness to grimes, he looked really good in the USA games. He was a highly recruited guard.
️
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
In all fairness to grimes, he looked really good in the USA games. He was a highly recruited guard.
️Yeah everyone got it wrong. To be fair he can still become a good player. I think getting away from Bill is best for everyone. Boynton nailed it with his comments but the problem is Q is always going to have those people in his ear.
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@BShark I think he wants to be the man! Not run the O thru the Bigs or let DDot run the O! To slow to play, to slow to see the open man. At least he didn’t hear me!
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He bent over backward, and some might say in the end, he just bent over for Q. He gave him every opportunity. Too much opportunity. It’s crazy, I was always whining about the quick hook back a few years ago. With Q, I was begging for it.
I agree with @Crimsonorblue22 about Q wanting to be the man. But as someone once said, to be the man, you gotta beat the man. He and Dotson aren’t the same level.
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HighEliteMajor said:
It’s crazy, I was always whining about the quick hook back a few years ago. With Q, I was begging for it.
I felt the exact same way and it always made me wonder if Q was a good practice player. I don’t want to believe Self played him to not hurt recruiting which was the opinion of some.
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Bill didn’t have much of a choice but to play Q and hope he figured it out. That team wasn’t going to a FF unless Grimes had a Newman like finish to the season.
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
In all fairness to grimes, he looked really good in the USA games. He was a highly recruited guard.
️Yep. I totally whiffed on Q, mostly from the USA games. One guy I feel pretty good about not whiffing on is Moss. I like everything I’ve heard about him so far.
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@FarmerJayhawk It sounds like Moss has the desire and is thrilled to be at KU.
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I don’t think anyone will ever know what really happened that caused Grimes to underachieve to the degree that he did. I don’t think you will find many coaches that would have expected him to underperform that much.
He checked every box, then somehow unchecked every box. I have never seen that before.
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justanotherfan said:
I don’t think anyone will ever know what really happened that caused Grimes to underachieve to the degree that he did. I don’t think you will find many coaches that would have expected him to underperform that much.
He checked every box, then somehow unchecked every box. I have never seen that before.
Very interested to see how he does at Houston where the conference is a step down athletically.
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@BShark Prediction - he will do better at Houston as far as points due to jacking up more shots, yet still just as bad.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Dug into Sports-reference for a minute. They have PER back until 2010.
Sure Enough the two lowest players in the Self Era to play 300+ minutes is Quentin & Charlie. Quentin’s PER is 3+ points lower (8.7) then the next closet player Marcus Garrett 11.7 (17-19), Elijah Johnson 11.8 (12-13), Selden 11.9 (14-15), Selby 11.9 (14-15). Charlie’s PER was 5.7, he should have never played.
Hopefully Garrett improves from his 11.7 & 12.8 over his first two years. If he’s in the 14-15 range we have 7 guys that will make this team look good most nights. Moss was 14.0 last season, 15.7 as a Soph. Agbaji was 13, flashes and injury and he will be better. Udoka was a crazy 31.5 in limited games but was 28.9 in his only full season so we know what he’s capable of. Silvio was 22 in his half season, solid. McCormack & Dotson were solid as freshman 19.5 & 17.
PER isn’t a great stat to use on Garrett. The reason being that PER is weighted very heavily towards the offensive end of the floor and gives minimal weight to defensive ability which is where most of Garrett’s value comes from.
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Sure it is, it still points out that his impact on the floor was impacted significantly by being a terrible shooter. I fail to see where the PER hasn’t accurately accounted for his abilities to date. He has shown flashes in both seasons here but not a ton of consistency either. This is a big year to turn things around for him
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BShark said:
justanotherfan said:
I don’t think anyone will ever know what really happened that caused Grimes to underachieve to the degree that he did. I don’t think you will find many coaches that would have expected him to underperform that much.
He checked every box, then somehow unchecked every box. I have never seen that before.
Very interested to see how he does at Houston where the conference is a step down athletically.
Guess we’ll find out this year. Got his waiver.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
justanotherfan said:
I don’t think anyone will ever know what really happened that caused Grimes to underachieve to the degree that he did. I don’t think you will find many coaches that would have expected him to underperform that much.
He checked every box, then somehow unchecked every box. I have never seen that before.
Very interested to see how he does at Houston where the conference is a step down athletically.
Guess we’ll find out this year. Got his waiver.
The reason it was granted is hilarious to me. Mind you I don’t think kids should be forced to sit out at all but a scholarship not being available because he said he was leaving is pretty silly.
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@BShark do u think Self didn’t want him back? I mean told him that?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@BShark do u think Self didn’t want him back? I mean told him that?
Zero doubt in my mind this was 100% mutual.
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@BShark Good for KU. No reason to not support him. It didn’t work out at KU, nothing more than that.
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@FarmerJayhawk …and we don’t want him spilling the beans on how much we … er, Adidas … paid him.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@FarmerJayhawk …and we don’t want him spilling the beans on how much we … er, Adidas … paid him.
He’s half North Central Kansan. Loyal as they come!
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Downright laughable he got a waiver. However this is the trend the NCAA has set especially in football allowing the select few big names that want their way and somehow get it. You cant make this stuff up even if you tried. Good luck to Q and sounds like KU was helpful in making this happen regardless of whether it was the right or fair thing to do
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BeddieKU23 said:
Sure it is, it still points out that his impact on the floor was impacted significantly by being a terrible shooter. I fail to see where the PER hasn’t accurately accounted for his abilities to date. He has shown flashes in both seasons here but not a ton of consistency either. This is a big year to turn things around for him
Marcus Garrett’s biggest value comes on the defensive side of the floor. PER doesn’t effectively measure that value that Garrett adds on defense. We all know he’s not a great offensive player, but PER doesn’t reflect very well how many points Garrett’s defense keeps other players from scoring.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 His Defensive Box Plus Minus is that of an average post player. Which is nuts. His was actually higher than Dedric and Dave. Tied with Doke. Dave and Doke obviously didn’t play too much though.
Best DRTG of any KU guard last year as well. That is a team dependent stat but still, it just furthers the point.
I’m very hopeful for the overall defense of this years team. Saran wrap.
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Where is Dedric now? Still trying for the league?
That guy is perfect for international ball. Those guys don’t like defense either and are all about offense. He should become very wealthy in the right situation overseas.
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I’m convinced we had to make some big promises to land Q.
I saw a bunch of HS tape on that kid and I always thought he was overrated. He’s a nice kid so I won’t go too hard on him. But that was a major recruiting error.
I give Self and crew pretty good marks on recruiting and sizing up talent, but they are bound to screw up sometimes, especially when we get desperate to fill a hole.
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Sports history is littered with sad tales of can’t miss prospects. From HS record setting strikeout artists to QB’s who tear up college football, to 30pts, 15RB,10ASSt. guys in HS, hyped guys come in and for whatever reason just don’t work out for the rabid fan base that is expecting Johnny QB to lead them to glory. Q sure teased us with a spectacular debut against a final four team but quickly displayed his lack of desire and drive. He looked like he didn’t care to me. Sometimes it’s injuries, sometimes it’s a lack of a good work ethic. Heck sometimes statisticians in some backwater HS get a little inventive with their stats. Q won’t be the last to come through AFH unfortunately. I do wish him well.
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@drgnslayr I know spurs cut him, guessing G league?
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Josh g league too?
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@crimsonorblue22 Memphis grizzlies.
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Flip a coin. Heads Kings, tails Grizzlies.
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approxinfinity said:
Flip a coin. Heads Kings, tails Grizzlies.
Heads you win, tails I lose.
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PER is a pretty good statistical measure. No, it doesn’t track everything, and it doesn’t isolate good man to man defense, but it does evaluate lots of little things.
I heard a scout once say that the reason some guys get praised for “little things” is because they aren’t good at the big things. No, everyone won’t be a big time scorer, but Garrett hasn’t just been a poor shooter. He’s been a poor overall offensive player. As a freshman, his assist to turnover ratio was 1.46. As a sophomore, it was 1.5. He is a solid perimeter rebounder, but not exceptional. His steal numbers are also solid, but not exceptional.
Garrett is roughly average as a player - he’s a net plus on defense because of his length, rebounding and good man to man defense (he doesn’t block many shots or cause tons of turnovers, so he doesn’t rate exceptionally on that end), but he’s a net minus on offense because he is a very poor shooter that isn’t an exceptional passer or offensive rebounder.
Now, if Garrett made himself into a slightly below average shooter, he would be a net plus overall because he is good defensively, so you can afford a bit of a downgrade on the other end. Last night’s performance was a good sign, although we need to see consistency.
But PER captures Garrett’s value pretty well. He’s a good defensive player and a bad offensive player. Put that together and he’s roughly average. If he becomes only a below average offensive player (rather than bad) he likely becomes a pretty good player overall. If he becomes an average offensive player, he probably becomes one of the better players in the Big 12.
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