How long does Beaty have? Who will Long replace him with?
-
Venables not getting a gig is oddly similar to Turner Gil, who was never given a gig and was passed over time after time until he landed here.
I’d take Beilma in a heart beat and wouldn’t complain one bit if that was who we ended up with.
But, my preference is still a MAC school head coach.
-
@Kcmatt7 Why on earth would you hire the guy at your new job that got you fired from your previous job? Explain that logic to me because that doesn’t make a damn bit of sense to me.
Venables being passed up is different than Turner Gill getting passed up. Almost every high profile job Venables has interviewed for has gone to an already established head coach either moving up or returning home. The exceptions are Kansas which Venables had interviewed for at least once when Beaty got the job and was rumored to have been interested when Weis got the job, but we all know what Zenger’s talent evaluation skills are like. He also interviewed at Clemson when Swinney got the job, but that was in 2009 and Swinney had already been an assistant at Clemson for 5 years and was already the interim coach so Venables wasn’t the favorite there to begin with. The last high profile job Venables was connected with was Miami which ended up going with a highly successful alum in Mark Richt and Oklahoma where Stoops named Riley his successor and didn’t have open interviews that we know of.
Other than the Kansas openings, Venables has legitimately not been the best fit at any of the schools he interviewed at and nobody even at the times he was passed over, again except for Kansas said those schools made a bad decision.
-
BShark said:
Do we know why Venables hasn’t got a HC job yet? Seems odd.
There’s a thing that happened back when he was a player at KSU that’s been buried for a long time and he REALLY wants to keep it that way. Any high profile program doing deep background on him may not like what they find.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 Calm your tits.
-
FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
Do we know why Venables hasn’t got a HC job yet? Seems odd.
There’s a thing that happened back when he was a player at KSU that’s been buried for a long time and he REALLY wants to keep it that way. Any high profile program doing deep background on him may not like what they find.
I’ve heard about that before actually. Not a great look but very far in the past now.
-
@Kcmatt7 Answer the question, what’s the logic behind hiring a guy at your new job that’s the reason you were fired from your previous job?
-
BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
Do we know why Venables hasn’t got a HC job yet? Seems odd.
There’s a thing that happened back when he was a player at KSU that’s been buried for a long time and he REALLY wants to keep it that way. Any high profile program doing deep background on him may not like what they find.
I’ve heard about that before actually. Not a great look but very far in the past now.
We may be talking about different things. Not to be confused with Kruger’s love child haha.
-
@FarmerJayhawk What I heard from old KSU friends is it involved drugs and the daughter of a high profile booster. Don’t want to go into too many details.
-
@BShark ah yes. We’re on the same page.
-
Looks like Fritz could be a really good candidate. Has more tread on the tires left compared to someone like Les. Will be interesting to see how Tulane does this year.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 If I was Long, I wouldn’t.
If I was the KU AD, I’d absolutely hire him. He is one of a handful of coaches out there that have proven they can win at the P5 level. Yes, he has also proven he can lose at that level. But giving it to a guy who has proven he can win isn’t any worse than giving the job to an unknown like you want to do. Just because someone is a good Coordinator doesn’t mean they are going to be a good HC.
If Venables was a home run hire he would have already been hired by someone.
-
@Kcmatt7 Bielema inherited Wisconsin, he had to do a rebuilding job at Arkansas and failed at it. What he would have to do at Kansas is much more comparable to what the situation was at Arkansas than Wisconsin and he failed at that one.
-
Les Miles would only come if guaranteed a nice salary and knows that he will be here for exactly 4 or 5 years. He’s a get back on track type of coach. He won’t be the long term answer, but could right the ship. Of course, that also means that you ultimately have to make another good hire down the line to replace him when he retires.
Bielema is an interesting option. He could certainly raise KU’s profile and he is young enough that he legitimately could stay at KU for several years. He was very successful at Wisconsin, and his Wisconsin success is a bit of a model of what KU is capable of - consistent winning, with a chance to win the conference every few years. The only knock on him is that he may not be a strong recruiter, and KU doesn’t have tons of in-state talent (or the attraction of being the only D1 option in state) to supply the program.
Ultimately, KU football is a very unique program. It’s from a state that does not produce much D1 talent, which makes it similar to Iowa, Nebraska and other upper plains and upper Rockies states. However, it is also in a state with two major conference programs, which makes it most similar to Iowa. KU’s only real hope to improve its football program is to lock down the KC metro area from a recruiting standpoint. Kansas City produces enough D1 talent that a solid coach can build a team around.
That’s the only way forward for KU that I can see. Grab the best talent in Kansas City, combine that with talent from Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma and stay competitive. Trying to outrecruit the national powers like LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma in their own backyard is a losing strategy.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 Nobody on here is dumb. I know all of this. I have my opinion on the situation.
-
If Bielema went 29-34 here he may get a statue.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 Bielema went 68-24 at Wisconsin in 7 seasons. He may have “inherited” something but he obviously kept it going.
Also going into Arkansas and going into Kansas are not close to the same thing. Arkansas has unreal expectations of that they are and are in the toughest division in CFB. KU fans want to see progress and at this point would be happy with 5-7 wins a year. Not even remotely close.
-
@Woodrow Bielema finished last in the SEC West in 3 of 5 years. Apparently finishing better than last most of the time is an unrealistic expectation now.
-
Sounds like Long has taken the high road with Coach Beaty at this point calling for support. I agree with it, it would be rather silly to fire a Coach right before camp starts and would likely not do any favors for a season that already looks dim. I think you could see him let go if he isn’t able to win the first 2 games. If he can manage that I believe Long will give him the rest of the year to prove his worth. I’ve never been a fan of firing coaches in the middle of the season especially when the next hire most likely isn’t coming current staff. Our season ends on thanksgiving or most likely, meaning most coaches are still coaching and there isn’t any reason to fire him before that date excluding a lose to Nichols State. Some say firing early helps get names together and what not. I guess I have no idea why Long couldn’t start the process with a few weeks to go even with Beaty still there.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 I live in AR now, they think they are the top school in everything…certainly the FB record was unacceptable by any measure, but that doesn’t change the fact that AR expectations are over the top.
-
@Bwag I think that goes with the territory in SEC country because living for a decade in LSU territory made me think they think they’re the top school in everything.
-
He always needed to be given this season. Personally I’d give him the entire year to coach. I hate mid season firings, but I’d start talking to other coaches agents starting as soon as I knew I was firing Beaty. We need to be the first in line holding the biggest check for our number one candidate.
-
The only realistic chances for wins are in the first 4 games when KU plays Nichols State, Central Michigan and Rutgers and then Baylor in the only conference game KU has a chance, then it plays OSU and WVU when it does not have much of a shot before the 1 week off.
How KU does in these first 4 games and how it plays in the next 2 will decide whether Beaty stays or goes. 3 wins and no blowouts and he likely keeps his job, less than 3 wins or blowouts against OSU and/or WVU and the announcement of his firing comes at the break.
-
I too would give Beaty the whole year, but would have Long working in the background gathering candidates and coaches.
I personally don’t think it matters if KU is “first in line” because they are just not going to attract the same candidates as other P5 programs right now.
-
No way KU hires a football coach that anyone has ever heard of. Maybe some up and coming middle school coach from Delaware or some place.
-
I’ve used this example before, but in order for KU to succeed with whoever the next football hire is (if indeed Beaty is fired after this year), they need to hire their own Bill Self.
The catch is that KU doesn’t have the right situation to hire Illinois Bill Self. KU football has to hire their own Tulsa Bill Self.
We all know Self’s history, but I will recount the important points here for convenience.
Self was an assistant at both KU and Oklahoma State before becoming the HC, working under Larry Brown, Eddie Sutton and Leonard Hamilton.
Self got his first HC gig at Oral Roberts and went 6-21 in his first season, then 10-17 in year two. Obviously, KU wouldn’t consider him at that point. Self then went 18-9 and 21-7. That got him the job at Tulsa.
In his first year at Tulsa, Self went 19-12, then the next year he took a 23-10 Tulsa squad to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.
That’s the Bill Self equivalent coach that KU football would need to hire - the 37 year old with just six years of coaching experience and only two postseason trips, no P5 conference experience and a very short history of success.
You have to bet on the future with a young guy like that.
The very next year Self went 31-5 and took Tulsa to the Elite Eight. At that point he had his choice of jobs and went to Illinois. If you’re KU football, waiting for that result likely means your target has too many options to take your job.
So let’s see who fits that bill (no pun intended) around the country.
There are seven coaches that could be of some interest, in reverse order of my personal preference.
Billy Napier - He just took the job at Louisiana Lafayette, so he’s 0-0 as a head coach right now. He turns 39 next week, so he’s still relatively young. His best parallel to Self is that he has been an assistant at both Clemson and Alabama, and was offensive coordinator at Arizona State last year. The biggest downside is that this is his first HC gig, so he’s hugely unproven.
Scottie Montgomery - Montgomery turned 40 in May. He’s currently the head man at East Carolina, where he is 6-18 on his career. He parallels Self in that his first two seasons as head coach were losing campaigns. Montgomery was a coordinator at Duke (his alma mater), as well as coaching in the NFL (Steelers). The biggest downside is that he hasn’t had any success as a head coach, although neither did Self prior to his third season. Montgomery is pretty well paid for a non-P5 coach ($1.2M per year), so if he has a good season this year, even KU offering P5 money won’t necessarily get him.
Mike Sanford - Former Boise State QB that is the current HC at Western Kentucky. He’s just 36, and took Western Kentucky to a bowl in his first season on the job (6-7 as a head coach). He was OC at Notre Dame immediately before becoming WKU’s head man. He’s also been an assistant at Stanford.
Mike Norvell - He’s the head coach at Memphis and will turn 37 in October. He’s 18-8 at Memphis, so with another strong season this year, he may be too hot a commodity to take the KU job. He was a P5 assistant at Pitt and Arizona State. The biggest catch with him is that he’s the highest paid non-P5 coach in the country, so it will be tough to lure him away with money alone.
Neal Brown - He turned 38 earlier this spring. He’s the head coach at Troy and has been mentioned before as a possible KU target, and for good reason. He’s been in the Big 12 before (OC at Texas Tech) and also worked as OC at Kentucky. Brown is 25-13 as HC, with a pair of double digit win seasons and two bowl wins. Like Norvell, he may have had too much success if he continues on his current trajectory. Unlike Norvell, Troy is only paying Brown $800,000, so P5 money will be attractive to him (largely why I rank him ahead of Norvell - he will be easier to land with a salary increase).
Jason Candle - Candle’s name keeps coming up, so most here are probably more familiar with him. He will turn 39 in November. He’s currently the head man at Toledo. He’s 21-7 at Toledo. The only knock on him is that he’s never even been an assistant at a P5 school, which means he’s never recruited at the highest level. He played at Mount Union, a D3 powerhouse, so he wasn’t even a high level recruit himself. The KU job is dependent on having a strong recruiter, so hiring Candle will be dependent on how much confidence you have in his recruiting abilities (he has been named the top recruiter in the MAC, so there is something out there to base that on).
Seth Littrell - Littrell played at Oklahoma (won a national title) and was a grad assistant at KU. He has been an assistant at Texas Tech, Arizona, Indiana and North Carolina (all P5). He’s 14-13 overall at North Texas as HC, where they went 9-5 last year. His salary is under $850,000 after signing an extension with the Mean Green. He hasn’t had the success that Candle, Norvell and Brown have all had, but that’s part of the reason I rank him higher. If Candle, Norvell and Brown all have winning seasons again this year, the following things likely happen:
-
Norvell either signs a huge contract at a P5 school, or stays at Memphis and continues to get paid very well.
-
Brown grabs the best P5 job available, or signs an extension at Troy that nets him $1M plus.
-
Candle gets extended at Toledo or gets a big time P5 job.
Littrell is probably available, and he has shown P5 chops as an assistant. He’s the closest parallel to Self. He’s probably actually Oral Roberts Bill Self moreso than even Tulsa Bill Self, but KU has to take that type of chance if they are going to get a big time coach. They have to get a coach on the rise at the very beginning of their rise.
-
-
@justanotherfan DUDE - that’s very well thought out. I just like to flap my lips and see what comes out…
-
nuleafjhawk said:
I just like to flap my lips and see what comes out…
So do I. I just take up more space to do it sometimes.
-
I believe his son is on the team (Clemson).
Not many jobs better then running the D for a powerhouse.
He may just be biding his time for the KSU job or the right timing of things with his family etc. Honestly though I expected him to be a HC by now
-
For the people thinking Venables would leave Clemson to come to KU.
-
Was just about to post this before I saw your post. Getting paid like a HC without the responsibility. Clemson certainly will make it hard for a P5 team to poach him away without going deep into the pockets.
-
@Woodrow Anybody that knows anything about college football knows that no self resprecting, well known coach (assistant or otherwise) is going to come to KU. It would be like Bill Self leaving KU to coach at Missouri.
-
@nuleafjhawk good one
-
@nuleafjhawk Let’s not go that far.
