Coronavirus Thread: Boy, guys. I really just don't know. Best to keep tabs.
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Hard to trust what the Chinese say since they keep out foreigners in the quarantine structure.
They have setup a mass quarantine, something we are not even close to being able to do. We can’t even get test kits out where they need to be.
Once we get test kits out as they should be we are in for a big shock. Most likely, there will be a huge numbers of infections. The media will spin that into a frenzy, though the reality is that the death rate will lower maybe even below Type A and B influenza.
When that happens the real question is… why don’t we do something about flu A and B (the flu that is far more dangerous!)?
Are we just going to give in to fear to the point of destroying our way of life? Or will we look for sound ways to curb the spread of infection that won’t kill our economy, make us all isolated zombies, and destroy everything we ever built in this country?
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@drgnslayr Fear mongerers in the media are enjoying this.
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@Woodrow who are you believing there?
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@Crimsonorblue22 well to be honest I have no idea what to believe when it comes to this. I will say I think 2-3% seems really high though. The major problem I see is that you can not believe anything China says so there is no telling how bad it is over there. I would almost guarantee that it is way worse over there but there is just no way to know…
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@Woodrow sounds like the huge problem here is, there are not enough tests. Just listened to a sick RN who was told to “take a Number”. I don’t believe all flu cases are reported either. I have a friend whose wife has West Nile and that was never reported in Reno co. I’m not panicked, but aware and not going on a cruise!
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@drgnslayr I logged back in after months just to say how surprised I am at your take on the Coronovirus.
“the reality is that the death rate will lower maybe even below Type A and B influenza.” Where do you get that?!? The flu kills at a 0.1%. France now has over 600 sick and 9 deaths: that is 1.5% already, and we know of those 600 not everyone will recover.
“why don’t we do something about flu A and B?” You mean like vaccines, that we develop and ask everybody to take every autumn?!?
If anyone wants some more objective takes on what is in store for the USA, and if you don’t trust China, try looking at what is happening in Europe. There is no way things will go better for you than in countries with universal health care. The people who are uninsured or underinsured and cannot afford treatment will infect more people than if they were taken care of.
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@ParisHawk are mostly the elderly dying there? Tell us more, please. Seems to be highly contagious.
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I’ll stand by what I said previously. The government dropped the ball on this from the get go. If a person doesn’t think that the intertwined markets were partly to blame for the world governments taking so long to do anything that person is being naive, at best.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Details on deaths 8 and 9 are not yet public. Ages of the first 7 dead: 81, 60, 89, 92, 73, 63, 79.
What we are being told is mortality will be higher for the elderly and / or those with diabetes or cardiovascular diseases. Men are a bit more at risk than women. Children can have the virus and be contagious without symptoms. In infected areas children are not allowed to visit the elderly in retirement homes.
Sneeze / cough into your elbows. Don’t shake hands. Wash your hands thoroughly and often. Works for flu too.
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I have concerns over all the people who don’t have health care in the US. It opens up all kinds of risks… I agree.
Maybe this virus will expose this enough here to get the politicians to figure out a solution for all those uninsured. I certainly hope so.
But if this doesn’t turn out to be more deadly then common flu, I’m betting the public will see how this was handled very negatively. And I’m mostly talking about the press and the hype.
Then comes the extremely deadly virus… and no one will listen. Once you lose the trust of the public, the threat becomes a lot more real.
Look at how there are single cases of the virus now in almost every state. I bet all those people didn’t have contact with each other. There are probably 1000s of people in between.
It may sound strange… but at this point we should hope adequate tests come out and they discover millions of people have it. That would indicate an extremely low death rate, far below flu A and B. The real danger is if all the tests come out and few others have it, because the death rate will be high.
Cancelling everything in life, tanking the economy and stock market, will have a huge human life cost, too.
Most of the people I know that have taken the flu vaccines became sick. There isn’t a lot of faith in those vaccines, and they are formulated on a guess of which flu will prosper in the flu season and they often admit they were wrong.
What I wish we would do is stay calm and look for higher standards we can keep in place permanently to reduce all kinds of flu. Type A and B are deadly and have never received enough attention for their harm. I hope coronavirus brings us to our senses to go after a safer world from all flus.
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Most of the people I know, including family, always get the vaccine, I even got the pneumonia shot a few yrs back. I have a low resistance to pneumococcal infections. They guess wrong sometimes but it still lessens the side effects.
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Good explainer from the la times. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-05/flu-killed-more-people-coronavirus-covid-19
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@drgnslayr While not for government-run healthcare I agree that something is wrong with our system. I think it is a combination of the insurance companies, as well doctors and hospitals double-charging. Have a good friend who knows a well-known doctor, she said that he admitted as much while saying that it is common practice. They overcharge, and then the insurance companies have to pay more - an endless cycle.
I live in a relatively small burg (I have private insurance, but usually use the VA), and here they actually make seniors and everyone else pay 20 dollars before they even get in to see their doctor.
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1 lady, under 50, confirmed in jo co
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
1 lady, under 50, confirmed in jo co
Yep 1st case here in Ks just another case though how many did she spread this too before she knew about it - -wll you can expect more. - -I read NY has now declared a state of Emergency lso
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What this virus shows us is we can’t have people uninsured in this country. It creates a danger to all of us.
There are people who have had a coronavirus test and then billed several thousand dollars. You can’t put public health and safety in situations like that.
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When healthcare was made universally available and affordable my premium doubled and reduced the level of service I had be receiving (no longer offered). I fully understand why everyone isn’t insured. When the insurance companies thought they had everyone forced into buying their product they raised prices. I don’t want the government involved in my healthcare at all, they mess everything up.
As far as the numbers go I have healthcare and am not likely to get counted if infected, I have to be pretty near death to go to the doctors office outside of routine maintenance. The number of infected and survived is far higher that we will ever know, but we will hear about every death.
This is a new virus, new is scary. Unfortunately there is no way to quarantine it now, a month ago yes. Now it’s spread to too many areas/people to be contained. Instances of new infection in areas hit first are going down indicating it’s burning itself out. We are in the front end here, but within a few months it’ll be over and we have the summer on our side - less forced inside time we trade domes for open top stadiums. With any luck it won’t get as bad here as it did overseas just do to timing (it won’t be due to preparedness).
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@drgnslayr said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
What this virus shows us is we can’t have people uninsured in this country. It creates a danger to all of us.
There are people who have had a coronavirus test and then billed several thousand dollars. You can’t put public health and safety in situations like that.
Stories like that are why the government needs to stay the hell out of public health industry. Too many entities wanting a piece of the pie drives prices up for everyone.
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I heard on tv this am the cdc is reimbursing everyone for their tests.
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The California Insurance Commissioner ordered insurance companies to cover the cost of testing. Nationally, the president should be working with the states to do the same.
People need to understand that a death rate that is really high, like 30 to 60% for MERS and SARS, keeps the disease from rampaging very far–people get very sick, they are put in care, they die.
It drives me crazy when people focus on whether the death rate is higher or lower than flu. We know how flu spreads; decades of data demonstrates the flu’s infectiousness and incubation periods; there are vaccines that even if only 50% effective stiil protect fully half the recipients, and would be more effective if people would stop thinking intuition is better than science; there are antivirals to administer to reduce the severity even when contracted.
The COVID-19 virus is dangerous regardless of the overall fatality rate. The lethality is indeed highly skewed toward the elderly, but it is the lack of ability to identify it before showing symptoms that makes everything about it a game-changer from the flu. Best evidence (including from Europe, not just China) is that incubation could take up to 3 weeks, during which time little is known about how or when it can be spread to new people, all before becoming symptomatic.
For every person bravely saying that they don’t fear the virus and so they refuse to restrict their activities or change their habits, please remember the hundreds of people whom you may be in close contact with every week. You might not be afraid of getting infected, but consider this scenario: you catch it from an asymptomatic someone near you at Starbucks, who returned last week from California and whose kid caught it from a teacher who returned on Feb 21 from the Princess ship now off SF and taught for a week before getting symptoms. You spend the next week with no symptoms, and at some point you pass it on to a neighbor, who is a nurse at an assisted living facility, who manages to spread it to others there, including the food service workers who infect 50% of the residents. Public health officials go nuts as up to 25% of the infected residents die. And no one has a clue how it got there.
The point is that younger people have a responsibility to not disregard the huge danger to other people just because they may only get mildly ill. An infection rate of 2 to 3% still means literally hundreds of thousands or even millions of people will die if it spreads throughout the population.
Anyone who says we are close to a vaccine that can prevent the spread of this is lying. Anyone who says we are effectively controlling the spread is wrong. Anyone who says that it is no worse than the flu, and therefore should not be treated differently, is blind.
That does not mean society has to close down. It does mean we have to be very very careful. Remember that even with all we know about how norovirus gets spread (feces–sorry!) studies show between 1/3 to 1/2 of people using publicrestrooms don’t wash their hands. Being careful with hygiene can help, but not guarantee, to protect you from the idiots among us.
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@mayjay I went a full decade without catching a cold…then I had kids. I guess the safest rout is getting those suckers adopted off. Lol
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@mayjay said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
The California Insurance Commissioner ordered insurance companies to cover the cost of testing. Nationally, the president should be working with the states to do the same.
People need to understand that a death rate that is really high, like 30 to 60% for MERS and SARS, keeps the disease from rampaging very far–people get very sick, they are put in care, they die.
It drives me crazy when people focus on whether the death rate is higher or lower than flu. We know how flu spreads; decades of data demonstrates the flu’s infectiousness and incubation periods; there are vaccines that even if only 50% effective stiil protect fully half the recipients, and would be more effective if people would stop thinking intuition is better than science; there are antivirals to administer to reduce the severity even when contracted.
The COVID-19 virus is dangerous regardless of the overall fatality rate. The lethality is indeed highly skewed toward the elderly, but it is the lack of ability to identify it before showing symptoms that makes everything about it a game-changer from the flu. Best evidence (including from Europe, not just China) is that incubation could take up to 3 weeks, during which time little is known about how or when it can be spread to new people, all before becoming symptomatic.
For every person bravely saying that they don’t fear the virus and so they refuse to restrict their activities or change their habits, please remember the hundreds of people whom you may be in close contact with every week. You might not be afraid of getting infected, but consider this scenario: you catch it from an asymptomatic someone near you at Starbucks, who returned last week from California and whose kid caught it from a teacher who returned on Feb 21 from the Princess ship now off SF and taught for a week before getting symptoms. You spend the next week with no symptoms, and at some point you pass it on to a neighbor, who is a nurse at an assisted living facility, who manages to spread it to others there, including the food service workers who infect 50% of the residents. Public health officials go nuts as up to 25% of the infected residents die. And no one has a clue how it got there.
The point is that younger people have a responsibility to not disregard the huge danger to other people just because they may only get mildly ill. An infection rate of 2 to 3% still means literally hundreds of thousands or even millions of people will die if it spreads throughout the population.
Anyone who says we are close to a vaccine that can prevent the spread of this is lying. Anyone who says we are effectively controlling the spread is wrong. Anyone who says that it is no worse than the flu, and therefore should not be treated differently, is blind.
That does not mean society has to close down. It does mean we have to be very very careful. Remember that even with all we know about how norovirus gets spread (feces–sorry!) studies show between 1/3 to 1/2 of people using publicrestrooms don’t wash their hands. Being careful with hygiene can help, but not guarantee, to protect you from the idiots among us.
Well I am just in a position that I’m on medi-care. - -got a e-mail the other day saying that if a test was needed for me that it will be covered – nice to know
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@Crimsonorblue22 That is bad…
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@dylans said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
When healthcare was made universally available and affordable my premium doubled and reduced the level of service I had be receiving (no longer offered). I fully understand why everyone isn’t insured. When the insurance companies thought they had everyone forced into buying their product they raised prices. I don’t want the government involved in my healthcare at all, they mess everything up.
As far as the numbers go I have healthcare and am not likely to get counted if infected, I have to be pretty near death to go to the doctors office outside of routine maintenance. The number of infected and survived is far higher that we will ever know, but we will hear about every death.
This is a new virus, new is scary. Unfortunately there is no way to quarantine it now, a month ago yes. Now it’s spread to too many areas/people to be contained. Instances of new infection in areas hit first are going down indicating it’s burning itself out. We are in the front end here, but within a few months it’ll be over and we have the summer on our side - less forced inside time we trade domes for open top stadiums. With any luck it won’t get as bad here as it did overseas just do to timing (it won’t be due to preparedness).
I agree, a month ago yes. That is what I have been saying - our governments failed us, put markets over lives. As soon as the damn thing was announced all travel to and from China - including connecting destinations and fucking cruise ships - should have been banned.
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@dylans Oh man, kid colds are the worst! They go to daycare and later school - festering incubators - and build somewhat of a tolerance. Man, I used to catch horrible what I call daycare flu - all of those little snotty-nosed kids.
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Read of Wibw news - there is a KU student that is in self quarantine , she is a Junior and was doing Abroad Study in Northern Italy - -she is at her home and has been in Contact with KU. - Says she thinks nothing to worry about , saying this isn’t how she had it planned. was finally contacted and was told time to come home.
Sai she has been really diligent about like wiping the Airline seat - -washing her hands - -santizing and such . - - -not really worried just passing along - - not confirmed with virus or anything but they are just taking precautions - -hope she doesn’t come down with it anyways. - -their cases went up by over 1,400 in one day - -holy crap. – ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Hang onto your butts https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1236824667014361088?s=21
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Some random facts updated as of this evening…
110/195 countries infected
109,974 Total Confirmed Cases
3,828 Deceased
542 known cases in US
22 deceased
40-70% projected to contract it
15% of US population is over 65
8 states have declared state of emergency
1/4 of population of Italy quarantined
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@StLJhawk said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
Some random facts updated as of this evening…
110/195 countries infected
109,974 Total Confirmed Cases
3,828 Deceased
542 known cases in US
22 deceased
40-70% projected to contract it
15% of US population is over 65
8 states have declared state of emergency
1/4 of population of Italy quarantined
Very uncool, to say the least…
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Some more stats:
ACTIVE CASES 44,914 Currently Infected Patients
38,935 (87%) in Mild Condition
5,979 (13%) Serious or Critical
CLOSED CASES 66,554 Cases which had an outcome
62,671 (94%) Recovered / Discharged
3,883 (6%) Deaths
By one study, it seems to be taking on average 14 days from known exposure to onset of symptoms, but serious cases then take a more severe turn in another few days. I cannot remember in detail, but IIRC recovery for these is taking 6 to 8 weeks on average, but this is all so new there hasn’t been many “6 to 8 week” periods yet.
It is the number of cases requiring hospitalization/respirators that sets it apart from the flu. Health experts are worried about the hospital system being overwhelmed if millions get infected, as seems likely.
Data updated several times a day for every country here (fascinating to read the timeline, too!):
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A few random questions…
Assuming the projections for a 40-70% infection rate are correct, lets forget about the death rate from the virus itself and think about what happens when half the population gets a bad case of the flu in a relatively short period of time.
If you’re in an accident or fall down the stairs, how long will it be before the police, fire dept or ambulance responds? Who will be available to treat you at the hospital? Who will deliver the medicine and supplies to the hospital?
When a storm causes massive power outages, how long will it take to get the lines fixed?
Who is going to deliver, stock, sell and prepare the food and supplies we need every day?
I think we’re in for a rough couple of months.
And I wouldn’t hold my breath about the tournament, which totally sucks because our chances to win it are so darn good.
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@StLJhawk So buy some face masks and loot the country while it’s on the crapper!
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@StLJhawk said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
A few random questions…
Assuming the projections for a 40-70% infection rate are correct, lets forget about the death rate from the virus itself and think about what happens when half the population gets a bad case of the flu in a relatively short period of time.
If you’re in an accident or fall down the stairs, how long will it be before the police, fire dept or ambulance responds? Who will be available to treat you at the hospital? Who will deliver the medicine and supplies to the hospital?
When a storm causes massive power outages, how long will it take to get the lines fixed?
Who is going to deliver, stock, sell and prepare the food and supplies we need every day?
I think we’re in for a rough couple of months.
And I wouldn’t hold my breath about the tournament, which totally sucks because our chances to win it are so darn good.
Sounds like the chances are becoming stronger day by day about the Tourney being played in empty arena’s, - Read where the NCAA already has a plan in place just for that if it comes down to it
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Well that would be one strategy I guess. Another would be to prepare for a rough couple of months as best you can.
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No doubt it’s the governments plan to save social security. Those suckers just keep clinging to life. Sheesh
Probably better not riot - it looks like over 80% of people will have only mild symptoms. Gonna have to come up with better retirement plan.
I should’ve bought up masks, then I could hand them out so the sick suckers don’t cough on me. Unfortunately they aren’t going to do much other than serve as a reminder to not touch your face. I did see where a creative Asian fellow was using thong underwear for a mask. Lol colorful and 3 for $6.
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I heard that too. But regardless, a chunk of players are going to be sick with the flu come April. Wouldn’t it suck if the champs were whatever team had the healthiest roster?
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@StLJhawk said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
Well that would be one strategy I guess. Another would be to prepare for a rough couple of months as best you can.
This isn’t directed at anyone in specific - Are many poorly prepared and living week to week paycheck to paycheck? This is a serious question. Is that why the nationwide panic? I live as I always have - prepared for about anything. Keep a years worth of beef in the freezer, a months worth of perishables on hand, several months of freezer meals and non-perishable products, vehicles are all full of fuel. Always be ready…I guess it’s the old Boy Scout in me.
Why are we still allowed to have mass gatherings? Seems like an easy policy to stop the spread of the virus. Request the stoppage of crowds of over 100 people until things calm down. Maybe delay the ncaa tournament so all those travelers don’t grab a little COVID-19 souvenir to take home with them. You won’t see me at a ballgame until next season, not worth the risk.
Or is it just the fear of the unknown menace as it advances across the globe now threatening our very doorstep?
The best thing to come of this is the economy grinding to a halt in China. - look at the air pollution maps. It only took a couple weeks of shutdowns to vastly improve air quality in China - their real number one killer.
I’ll admit I sure as hell don’t like what’s going on, has me nervous for my grandparents and elderly friends. The only way I can see making it much worse is panicking. Or perhaps if the Saudis devalued the oil market destroying the tax base for many of the rural communities that are already strapped for cash making medical funding harder to come by…
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Interesting read. I follow your logic of expressing mass danger because of the weakness of the virus (not showing up for a long time, or no symptoms while spreading).
Might it actually help most people to get it and help build their resistance to other bugs?
The real risk is elderly and those with medical conditions. Might it be wiser (especially at this point) to quarantine care homes and parts of medical facilities versus trying to quarantine the general public where it is widely spread?
What do we know about common treatments, like black elderberry, blueberries and vitamin C? Perhaps we widely spread healthy preventative and treatment nourishment to heavily reduce the death rate in elderly and others.
What I do know… is our current reaction is going to bring huge death and suffering because of economic downfall. Throwing us into a recession or depression isn’t the answer. We can act like staying home and washing hands is going to make this go away and that is just nonsense!
Health and preservation starts within each human body and we have a responsibility to ourselves to take care of ourselves.
I’m not afraid of this bug in the least, but I fear contracting it and giving it to my 87 yr old dad!
This is going to spread all through America. I have little doubt. I just wonder if the death statistics outperform influenza A and B. I’m not saying it is a contest… I think we should have always treated all influenza with more attention and prevention.
Last… concerning vaccines… why is it necessary to formulate vaccines with very toxic materials? I’m not a general proponent for vaccines because they use chemicals and compounds like mercury and formaldehyde, which are known toxins that weaken the immune system while the vaccine targets protection for one infection. Hate to be a whistleblower… but the CDC just lost a major court case and had to expose the mountain of studies they have claiming to disprove a connection between autism and vaccines. They did not show this mountain of studies and presented very little material relating to the subject at all. We need reassurances. More people are taking an active role in their health and hiding info from the public is extremely harmful.
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Umm, can you point me to that reference about the CDC losing the court case? My son has autism and I’ve done a LOT of research and found absolutely no link between vaccines and the disease and I think it’s very dangerous and irresponsible to suggest otherwise unless all that earlier research is somehow proven wrong.
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There’s a case in, yes Mizzou, where the daughter I believe has a confirmed case. The rest of the family was to stay home for 14 days. The dad decides to take the other daughter to a school function. Ewww!
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@Crimsonorblue22
we can’t fix stupid.
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Jesus. There is no link between vaccines and autism. The original study was fraught with awful and avoidable errors and the doctor lost his medical license for incompetence and fraud.
There’s no study that specifically evaluates the claim “no link between vaccines in autism” because you can’t exactly run an RCT with the MMR vaccine or something similar. That would defeat the entire purpose of the vaccination. The group that filed the lawsuit is essentially asking for studies that would’ve violated about every IRB rule on the planet and never could actually be performed. The best approach we have are case control, which is imperfect. This takes about 3 minutes of googling to figure out. Top result was a meta-analysis with over 1 million subjects and found absolutely zero association between vaccinations and autism. Spreading bullshit rumors and pseudo-science is very bad during a public health event.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X14006367?via%3Dihub
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Vaccinate your children.
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Yes and thank you!!
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Two problems with Corona virus as I see them right now, with the info we have.
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Seems to be much more highly contagious than the regular flu. The initial spread was so fast that the spread alone was alarming.
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The death rate for those over the age of 60 is very high. Yeah, people get the flu every year, and people die from the flu every year. But its not like people over 80 have a 1 in 7 chance of dying from the flu if they get it each year, which is what Corona virus is currently at here in the U.S. according to available numbers.
The fact that it is highly contagious, and also unusually fatal for those over a certain age is what got my attention. This isn’t pneumonia or the flu for those over 60 or so. It’s unusually dangerous, which is strange and also very concerning.
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Well at least I feel they handled the docking of the Cruise ship in Oakland today pretty well. !st peope of were the 21 confirmed cases they came off 1st and taken to hospitals , then the remaining passengers are to come off and will be put in quarinteed for two weeks , and the Crusise ship staff will remain at seas for their two week period to see if they catch virus. - -Bout all you can do. Had about a 10 acre section roped/fenced off when passengers departed /docked. -Would say about they can do at this point.
Heard that Italy is shutting completely down. Entire Nation now - -nobody in – nobody out. - -THATS SERIOUS FOR SURE
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So I was talking to a customer of mine (older man who just had kidney surgery a week ago) when he mentioned an old hired hand of his stopped in; hadn’t seen him in 16 years. He had been living in Nebraska, but the last few years has been living north of Seattle in Washington. He felt bad that his wife and kids were too sick to make the trip… ugg
️ Common sense would go a long way.
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I remain open minded. I followed along with the doctors on my dad until they almost killed him. I found a wellness doctor and we figured out what meds we could pull him off and he is doing well today, very stable 87 yr old.
I’m not an anti vaxxer. I also don’t just follow the herd.
My biggest concern… why no double-blind studies? It’s the gold standard used for all new pharma medications. Why not for vaccinations?
Most vaccines were formulated in the 60s. How much technology do we use today that is stuck in the 60s? At that time they were not focused on many of the chemicals used. I have little doubt that they could come up with much safer formulas today, also more effective. But that costs a fortune to retest. Our kids’ health evidently isn’t worth the expense.
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@justanotherfan said in Boy guys I really just don't know best to keep tabs:
The fact that it is highly contagious, and also unusually fatal for those over a certain age is what got my attention. This isn’t pneumonia or the flu for those over 60 or so. It’s unusually dangerous, which is strange and also very concerning.
Pneumonia and influenza are extremely dangerous for the elderly and for those with a compromised immune system.
It’s unknown what the death rate is compared to other influenza because of inadequate testing, more than likely non-testing on symptoms because of the belief it is another flu, and the fact that a high % of those with the virus show no symptoms so are never tested and included in the statistics.
It does appear to have some symptoms acting a bit different from other known influenza. Those exact symptoms are still being evaluated because of the newness of this virus (at least the newness of the discovery).
