New 2019 Recruiting
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@Kcmatt7 I think the reference to recruiting area is clearly relevant. But that’s no different than if we are recruiting top guys, or 100+. We have a proximity issue.
When you look west and south, though, kids are having to fly to most preferred destinations.
But not for one minute should any of us think that any excuse is relevant for KU. We’re a top 5 program. So the excuses are irrelevant. I find the excuses laughable actually. I understand the factual nature of the data, I just find it’s applicability to top 5 program, a blue blood like KU, pretty much irrelevant.
If Kansas focused on the non-OAD through - 80ish, made the commitment to avoid the presumed OAD, that would have to be attractive to a recruit in that range or higher. Logical. Why? Just look at Andrew White as an example. If I’m recruiting against KU, I say look at Andrew White. Self brings him in, then snags Wiggins and White is marginalized. White’s college career was then chaos. He got run out of Kansas. Self won’t commit to you. He chases the OAD. So you could be junior and he’ll bring in a top guy just when you need to the PT the most to make it to the NBA. Heck, KU had Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, and Bill Self was working hard to get De’Aaron Fox, and was a finalist until the end. Would he have displaced Mason? How would that have impacted Mason’s NBA prospects?
Or, we can continue to do what Self has done.
I’ll sacrifice making the tourney every so often for more pronounced spikes.
And those spikes can be from talent that grows, develops, and stays longer.
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BShark said:
Luke Maye is their Lightfoot and he was going to walk-on or something like that right? Really puts the difference in perspective.
Luke’s dad was a QB at Carolina back in the day, and was a walk-on his freshman year just because he wanted to be a Tar Heel.
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@Kcmatt7 wow, great post… Where to start? I one-hundred percent agree about the lack of local talent and without a doubt that definitely makes it harder to recruit. That being said, though, while we need to cast a wide net we still need to concentrate on some of the local talent in, specifically, Wichita and KC - Baker, Shamet, Heild, Braun and Agbaji. These guys tend to stick around and provide excellent depth and a solid foundation that we can build and count on. Recruit every year a highly ranked top 25 or 50 player or two or three, as needed? Sure, but not all in on only top 10 players at the expense of solid, seasoned depth that, if you think about it, is what made KU what it was and is. We’ve gotten away from that for the past several years and it is now biting us bigtime. Top 100 players (or in Agbaji, Braun and - I know, he’s from Arkansas, but still… - McBride’s case even lower) should not be ignored - not building quality depth is why we now find ourselves taking redshirts and transfers. Recruiting nationwide is fine, but I would take a pass on the for sure OADs… They do not win National Championships, and leave your team bereft of seasoned talent, chemistry and depth. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
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Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
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Woodrow said:
Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
He and Watford are mutually exclusive there. If Watford announces for Memphis, here we come.
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They have 50/50 for Enaruna going to KU on rivals. It was changed today I believe from 100% Creighton
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The change is Shay so lol.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Woodrow said:
Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
He and Watford are mutually exclusive there. If Watford announces for Memphis, here we come.
Seems like Watford is tending towards LSU with Wade back. Although that is a very fluid situation with a new AD and FBI stuff.
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@Woodrow Watford will pick LSU if Wade is there.
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@HighEliteMajor nice UNC comp!
Im thinking maybe we should start a shared Google spreadsheet to aggregate our info on recruiting class rankings and how they pan out for several teams, including transfers (it seems silly at this point that rivals etc don’t include transfers as part of recruiting classes. Archaic!) As always my appetite exceeds my drive to do it alone. Would you guys be interested in working on such a thing with me?
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Another sheet I want to start is success of coaches in tournaments, including coaching tree info (this guy was this other guys understudy)
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Woodrow said:
https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1119260240032219138?s=21
Not surprising
The comments seem to be in-line with what we’re all thinking.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 I think the reference to recruiting area is clearly relevant. But that’s no different than if we are recruiting top guys, or 100+. We have a proximity issue.
This is true. But, it is also relevant for consistently building a team based around 4 year guys. Of the top 100, 50 guys ended up at a local/regional school. (Basically I counted anything less than a 5 hour drive). 28 of those ranked 100-150 went close to home.
That essentially eliminates half of the pool. If I were to limit it a bit further, like anything NE and stayed NE. Or SE and stayed SE, that number gets significantly smaller. 95/150 players stayed regionally based. So, really, we are down to 50-60 players willing to travel away from home each year.
When you look west and south, though, kids are having to fly to most preferred destinations.
But not for one minute should any of us think that any excuse is relevant for KU. We’re a top 5 program. So the excuses are irrelevant. I find the excuses laughable actually. I understand the factual nature of the data, I just find it’s applicability to top 5 program, a blue blood like KU, pretty much irrelevant.
So if any argument is irrelevant, what is the point of even having this discussion. You won’t even open your mind up a little bit. Here is the thing, it is all relevant. It is. All of it.
If Kansas focused on the non-OAD through - 80ish, made the commitment to avoid the presumed OAD, that would have to be attractive to a recruit in that range or higher. Logical. Why? Just look at Andrew White as an example. If I’m recruiting against KU, I say look at Andrew White. Self brings him in, then snags Wiggins and White is marginalized. White’s college career was then chaos. He got run out of Kansas. Self won’t commit to you.
You are remembering it wrong. AWIII was ran out of here by B-Green. Who Self picked over him. Wiggins was not the problem Green played, and would have played, over him.
He chases the OAD. So you could be junior and he’ll bring in a top guy just when you need to the PT the most to make it to the NBA. Heck, KU had Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, and Bill Self was working hard to get De’Aaron Fox, and was a finalist until the end. Would he have displaced Mason? How would that have impacted Mason’s NBA prospects?
This is a complete hypothetical. Who knows how it turns out for Frank. And, again, you’re remembering it wrong. Fox was an early commit nobody thought was coming here. Go look at the CB picks. Most picks were coming well before he ever even took a visit.
Or, we can continue to do what Self has done.
I’ll sacrifice making the tourney every so often for more pronounced spikes.
I very much doubt this. I don’t think you would be ok with this. Enduring years of misery, hoping we can put it all together for one year. And, what if we don’t? What if we finally get a group of 7 solid upperclassmen and we shit the bed? We are supposed to be ok with waiting another 4,5 6 years before we put it all together again and have a chance?
And those spikes can be from talent that grows, develops, and stays longer.
It sounds like what you want is to be like Indiana. Because that is what KU would become if we went with your strategy. We are in a talent desert. Chicago and St. Louis are our only regional places producing talent. And there is plenty of competition in those areas between KU and MSU and the dozen other schools that surround those two cities.
You look at this with Crimson and Blue goggles and basically say, there is no reason KU should be able to offer a kid ranked 80, and him jump on the opportunity. That is simply not true. Over half of the players available each given season wouldn’t jump at it.
Once you start playing the ShoeCo games too, that number goes from half, to even less. Kai Jones is a perfect example. A Brewster kid that loved KU. We have it on good authority, KU would have been HIS choice. But Nike and Texas took care of him. And guess where he went? KU would have taken him in a heartbeat. KU Offered him. He did not jump at that opportunity. He took the money.
You also think that “recruiting over” only happens with OAD players. That’s not true either. BG was a better player than AWIII. He was. And AWIII would have left regardless because he was never going to start at KU. And he knew that.
Low ranked Frank Mason kicked Frankamps ass back to Wichita. Frank and Devonte forced out Nadiir too.
It is going to happen regardless. And you’re going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn’t land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn’t hurt a thing. Without him, I’m afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
Wiggins didn’t hurt a thing. He was an April commit with nobody else coming in. One year and done. And without him we are probably not a tournament team. Again, White left after that season knowing that he was never going to be #1 in the pecking order. He was already behind BG. There was no impact from it. And that team lost double digits with him, they weren’t losing less games without him. Hell, they ended up a 2 seed because of him, really.
Maybe Xavier messed things up for the Sherron SR. year. It’s possible. That team also went 33-3 so I think it’s hard to say that. Xavier shot .418 from 3 and was efficient all around. 1.5 steals per game is pretty damn good… What happens to that team without a wing who can score it and shoot it that well? Sherron and Cole were already doing about as much as they could.
We saw what happens when you recruit guys that are 100+. You get LLs and Jamari’s. I don’t want Landen’s and Jamari’s. I want us to try to field the best damn team we can year in and year out. Period. Especially because, mathematically speaking, we have to essentially offer every Top 100 player that is an Adidas kid and then see which ones are even open to leaving home and we aren’t already deep at that position.
You also ignore the fact that players want to play and they want to play right away. Nobody likes sitting the bench. What guarantee could we give a player? If you come sit here for two years, you’ll get to play? But only if a guy we bring in next season doesn’t progress faster than you. Or are you suggesting that Bill purposely sit better players? You see, this is the problem with your strategy. There is no guarantee you ever see the court at the University of Kansas. No matter who you are. No matter what strategy we take. We are KU. We get talent. We will play the best talent for our system. That may or may not be you. If you don’t like that someone jumped you, you transfer. All of a sudden, the guy who jumped you went pro. We now have a giant hole. But we have 4 other positions locked down. How do we fill this hole? We have a 80+ ranked guy coming in, but he isn’t ready to play at this level yet…
You make it sound so, so much easier than it is. These aren’t excuses. These are the cold hard facts. And you can ignore them and continue to decry Self for chasing talent, but this is the realistic look at recruiting from the University of Kansas in 2019.
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Woodrow said:
https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1119260240032219138?s=21
Not surprising
Oh man, Jon must have such great sources.
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@Kcmatt7 knocks it out of the park above. Read and re-read that post because it is exactly true.
For every Frank Mason (guy ranked in the 50 - 100 range that develops into an NBA player) there are a dozen Conner Frankamps. For every Ron Baker, there are ten Rio Adams. That’s just the nature of things. Once you drop down below the top 20 or 30 players (guys that generally are both skilled and athletic) you have to bet on skilled kids that may not have the athleticism to translate to the next level, or athletic kids that may never be skilled enough to contribute in a meaningful way at a program like KU.
Some kids just don’t improve much once they get to college. It’s not a lack of effort or hard work. It’s just that they have already maximized their athleticism or skill level (or both). I think someone like Perry Ellis is a great example of this. I would never question Perry’s work ethic or commitment. He was as good a player, and from all reports, as good a person, as you would hope to have wearing the Crimson and Blue. But Perry also came to KU as a bit of a finished product. He improved while in Lawrence, of course. He matured as a player and as a person. But if you were to compare his development curve to that of Frank Mason, there’s a clear separation (why Frank is in the NBA while Perry is not). Perry had nearly maximized his development before arriving at KU. He was already at 80% of what he would eventually become. Frank was probably only at 50% or so.
When recruiting, you have to look for that, but that’s more art than science. You don’t know if a kid has already topped out their growth, athleticism or skills. You won’t find that out until they come into the program and start lifting, being challenged by more skilled peers, etc.
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That was @Kcmatt7 magnum opus, I feel.
Oh and HEM doesn’t want LLs or Jamaris either that is on record.
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@BShark I feel I should just let @Kcmatt7’s epic stand without any trivial reply … it is persuasive. The best line, “You make it sound so, so much easier than it is.” Great post.
Perhaps that’s my major weakness on this. I am making it sound too easy.
Is there any doubt, though, that a team can, quite easily, ignore presumed OADs? How many teams really even have a shot at a presumed OAD?
The question then is the results of that. How does that impact the product on the court?
I personally believe that Self is better off as a coach, without it. That he can succeed at a high level without it. He would be better without that, overall. And we can compete for titles.
Proof? What presumed OAD took us to levels we wouldn’t have achieved without him for that one season? Wiggins? Second round exit (I know, Embiid was hurt). Or JJ? Elite Eight?
And remember, I have no issue with LL or JT in a proper, limited role. I barked about that on JT for what seemed like a lifetime. 10 - 12 minutes? Cool. 20+? Disaster. Same with LL. They were severely miscast as high minutes players. No one in retrospect disagrees with that, I think.
But clearly, my argument has weaknesses. The biggest one is that the top coaches DO go after the top presumed OADs. They must be doing that for a reason when considering all factors.
**Sidenote, AWIII would have started his freshman year without Wiggins on the roster. It’s why I said he was “marginalized.”
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Matthew Hurt to Duke.
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Welp see where Kentucky offered Johnny Juzang today after a in home visit - - -YIPPEE - we were 50/50.
The boys on the phog are smoking Self’s and staffs ass - -crying the end of the world is here. - -Sorry I don’t jump ship- - guess that’s the difference between a FAN - -and a Bandwagon fan. -Huge difference between a true fan and someone who is a fan ONLY when nothing but roses. - Comments such as Self and staff are sitting on their ass’s while other teams out recruiting - -Ya that’s exactly right Bill and the boys are at Coach’s office watching porn and drinkin beer while others are recruiting - -ya that’s exactly what’s going on.
People talking about how the FBI thing hasn’t hurt Louisville and Arizona - they doing just fine? - -Guess what Phase 2 of this trial starts Monday - -Arizona , Louisville , Creighton , Oklahoma State , USC , are in the fore front in this phase - -Watch how these recruits jump ship from Arizona - when things get hot - come talk to me later -dam people like this just P - - - - OFF - -fricken bunch of Billy wanna be fans.
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@HighEliteMajor Thanks for the reply. I do think we could avoid Presumed OADs, but I have my doubts about the results. I’ll explain more below.
Lets start with a scenario where you have talent, but not quite enough to win a NC without adding an immediate impact player capable of helping your team.
Let me even say we were following your plan, only slightly altered. Let’s say we build a team from 25-75 ranked recruits, successfully. Likely, because of our success, one or more guys are going to develop too quickly get poached by the NBA. Now, I’d like us to think of the 08 team, specifically. Wright and Rush were poached. If not for Rush’s knee injury, I think we all agree the 08 team likely doesn’t do what they did. For the sake of the scenario, let’s pretend Rush’s knee injury doesn’t happen and he’s gone as well. We have to replace him.
In one corner, stands Option A: a 6’5 175lb noodle of a freshman, ranked 55th in the class. He would love to come to KU. But he is not ready to contribute from day one. Walk-ons would eat him alive at this point. By conference season, he’s worth 8-10 MPG. (Rodrick Stewart is now getting 20 MPG. Yikes)
In another corner, stands option B: A 6’6 215 lb wing and Top 5 pick in the NBA draft would also like to come to KU. He is better than your current SF on the depth chart (Rodrick Steward) but he won’t give you 4 years like option A would. He increases your chances of a NC from 200/1 to 8/1.
Isn’t it a disservice to Sasha, Darnell, RR and Mario to take the lesser guy? Did they not earn their shot at a NC? Or do they not deserve one for not winning one while they had Wright and Rush?
I think you owe them the best chance you can give them to try for a NC if you have the rest of the pieces in place.
And before you fully commit to “OADs don’t give anyone anything,” let’s also look at those numbers. I think KU OADs to date might have been what has turned you sour on them.
This is just going off of getting to the FF.
- 2019 - Nadda. Nobody.
- 2018 - Omari Spellman. Maybe he wasn’t PRESUMED OAD. But he was one. He was ranked 20th and within the range of being one. He played damn good ball. He went. He was a OAD.
- 2017 - Zach Collins. Same as above basically. Except ranked 28th.
- 2016 - Malachi Richardson - Syracuse. Ranked 28th. So similar to the guys above
- 2015 - Okafor, Winston, Jones, Kat, Booker and Lyles.
- 2014 - Randle and Young
- 2013 - None. Nadda.
- 2012- Davis, Kidd-Gilchrest, Teague
- 2011 - Knight
- 2010 - None. Nadda.
- 2009 - None. Nadda.
- 2008 - Love, Rose
- 2007 - Oden, Cook and Conley.
- 2006 - Tyrus Thomas
10 FFs out of the 14 since the rule was put in place have had OAD freshman. Not all presumed, I’ll concede that. Still, finding an impact Freshman is absolutely key. That or convincing guys to stay. Even if I narrowed it down to Presumed though, 7 of the last 14 FFs had Presumed OADs play in them. That’s a pretty good percent.
And, I’ll even concede that I think Self’s system may not lend itself to OADs like Cal or K or even Roy tbh. They commit to it. They change their system around their talent. Self tries to fit his talent in his system. The JJ year, Self was literally forced to adapt to his team because of having 4 guards and no post presence. And I think that is why we saw JJ thrive.
But, this is the part that scares me. I do think we could probably avoid the Top 10 and be ok. Probably. But let’s return to our scenario. Ideally we want a guy ranked high enough he can come in and help, but not so high he leaves. So we laser in on guys ranked 20-40. And this is where the problems with avoiding OADs start. Out of those 20 guys we laser in on, only 10 may be willing to travel to play. Of that 10, only 4 are probably not Nike leans. Of those 4, 2-3 may not be a position of need. So you go from a pool of 20 guys down to literally one or two recruits that make or breaks your season. So, if you miss, you miss BIG.
Instead, we currently cast a net from 1-40. 20 of those guys are staying home. 6 are Adidas guys. And you have 3 or 4 chances at landing that impact player your roster needs to be NC caliber the next season. Throw in the tidbit that Adidas is willing to fork out bigger bucks for anyone ranked Top 15 because they want to sign them to a deal after this year, and it becomes much easier to recruit/sway some of these “presumed OADs”.
Or you decide to commit to the rebuild, scrap it, and go for a guy ranked 41-100 instead. I’m sure Sasha, Darnell and RR will get over it.
That’s what makes recruiting so damn tough though.
Feel free to respond, as I don’t think this can really go negative (at this point). It’s a genuinely interesting conversation and has made me pull data I was too lazy to pull at other times. As nice as you guys make me feel about my piece, this is a place for discussion.
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@jayballer73 - just read on Yahoo Sports where wiretaps won’t be heard and Miller and the LSU coach won’t testify. Not relevant to this particular case. So… those schools get off free without penalty to players? SMH…
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Gorilla72 said:
@jayballer73 - just read on Yahoo Sports where wiretaps won’t be heard and Miller and the LSU coach won’t testify. Not relevant to this particular case. So… those schools get off free without penalty to players? SMH…
ya I saw that earlier - -yet however we are different cases - -if they aren’t hearing the wire taps in this - -there has been talk about wiretap from our staff right? - -so fi that was the case you wouldn’t think that kind of thing would be allowed either right? - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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FWIW I’ve heard rumors UNC is out for Precious. KU and Memphis are the 2.
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Just thought of something… What if Stanley changed his commitment date to wait and see if Doke comes back? Yeah I know it’s more likely than not that he’s going to Duke but I can’t help but wonder.
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Kcmatt7 said:
It is going to happen regardless. And you’re going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn’t land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn’t hurt a thing. Without him, I’m afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
IMO JJ was the perfect OAD. Blended perfectly with the guys we had, played hard, never acted like a ME guy.
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BigBad said:
Kcmatt7 said:
It is going to happen regardless. And you’re going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn’t land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn’t hurt a thing. Without him, I’m afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
IMO JJ was the perfect OAD. Blended perfectly with the guys we had, played hard, never acted like a ME guy.
Self said it best. He actually unpacked his bags.
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… which implies others perhaps did not.
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Something something Wiggins something.
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@BShark I think Self loved wiggs
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@BShark I think Self loved wiggs
That he did. Xavier too. He definitely would’ve stayed but for Carl being total head case. Selby however…
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Self may have liked various players, but the “unpacked his bags” comment (in my opinion) refers to being all in when here vs being more focused on the next level.
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Well - -starting to look more and more like Precious will be headed to Memphis. - -Memphis starting to get more and more CB’S - like the last 5 have went to Memphis - -un-believable. - -
Maybe we need to renew our interests with Zach Harvey lol. – ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 I think you are correct.
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So is Markese Jacobs a guy we still don’t want or is that a whiff now? Did he stall out in his development?
Edit- I think I can answer my own question. Dude stalled out. He was ranked as high as 49, but currently sits in the 140s on the composite. Ouch.
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@dylans think he tore his acl too
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@dylans Yea he ended up at the right place. I think the thought when we offered was he would grow a bit too. His brother is a few inches taller than he is. Didn’t happen…
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Kcmatt7 said:
@dylans Yea he ended up at the right place. I think the thought when we offered was he would grow a bit too. His brother is a few inches taller than he is. Didn’t happen…
I think there is probably some truth to the height thing. He would be much more intriguing as a 6’3-4’’ 2G.
Agree that Depaul is a good fit for both sides.
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We will miss Achiuwa’s talent but we won’t miss his baggage. To think after all that’s happened in the past two years that we are still going after guys like this just floors me.
I know if your not in the game your not competing but you’d think we’d be a bit careful. I see nothing’s changed!
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FarmerJayhawk said:
https://twitter.com/andrew__slater/status/1120408420874629124?s=21Saw this. Wondering if we are more in it than some think.
I’d rather have Holyfield (which might be cray) but I’d take either in a second.
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BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
https://twitter.com/andrew__slater/status/1120408420874629124?s=21Saw this. Wondering if we are more in it than some think.
I’d rather have Holyfield (which might be cray) but I’d take either in a second.
Yes. Yes we are. we’ve been in deep here for a long time. Thanks Norm!!
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FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
https://twitter.com/andrew__slater/status/1120408420874629124?s=21Saw this. Wondering if we are more in it than some think.
I’d rather have Holyfield (which might be cray) but I’d take either in a second.
Yes. Yes we are. we’ve been in deep here for a long time. Thanks Norm!!
Norm is the untouchable assistant for me. In a perfect world, Snacks finds a HC job soon. Breaths new blood into the program and a good look in general.
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BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
FarmerJayhawk said:
https://twitter.com/andrew__slater/status/1120408420874629124?s=21Saw this. Wondering if we are more in it than some think.
I’d rather have Holyfield (which might be cray) but I’d take either in a second.
Yes. Yes we are. we’ve been in deep here for a long time. Thanks Norm!!
Norm is the untouchable assistant for me. In a perfect world, Snacks finds a HC job soon. Breaths new blood into the program and a good look in general.
Same. Look at recruiting pre- and post-Norm. Night and day. I love Danny (who doesn’t?) but his lack of recruiting killed us for a couple years.
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Stanley to Duke as expected.
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BShark said:
Stanley to Duke as expected.
fart noise
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@FarmerJayhawk I can’t wait to play them!
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FarmerJayhawk said:
BShark said:
Stanley to Duke as expected.
fart noise
I wanted Hurt, really don’t care much about Stanley.
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@FarmerJayhawk I can’t wait to play them!
Same. I don’t care who they trot out, if we can land Hampton/Tucker and another big (Holyfield/Precious) we’re going to mess them up big time. If we have Silvio and Doke in the front court, we’re going to flat wreck people. Those are two big freaking dudes. Vernon Carey is big but no way on Earth he can body up the big fella. And Silvio can hang with Hurt athletically. Obviously Precious and Holyfield would be terrific too.
