Draft Declarations Thread
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Billy?
I’d want to see Dok too if I was an NBA exec just in case he stays in.
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dylans said:
Billy?
I’d want to see Dok too if I was an NBA exec just in case he stays in.
Yeah, Billy got invited.
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Very surprised as well. Johnathan Givony doesn’t even have Doke in his top 100 prospect list. I believe he has Billy at 86.
Also Vick is a alternate so if some guys decline the invite which happens by top prospects he could get to go.
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Actually Vick was invited as an alternate and in case on of the invitees decides not to go (many of the top players pass) or there are injuries he would be attending the combine.
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BShark said:
Doke too. Everyone but Vick. Doke getting an invite feels like a favor.
Just a sign he’s not returning
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BeddieKU23 said:
BShark said:
Doke too. Everyone but Vick. Doke getting an invite feels like a favor.
Just a sign he’s not returning
Probably right.
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BeddieKU23 said:
BShark said:
Doke too. Everyone but Vick. Doke getting an invite feels like a favor.
Just a sign he’s not returning
#BasseyWatch2k18
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I’m shocked Doke was invited but I guess the interest in him was greater then anything written about him. He’ll get his chance and he’ll get workouts etc. This seems like one we are seeing the first step to him finding a professional career.
The power of KU’s brand definitely helped him here.
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With Doke, evaluators want to know two things.
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Is he healthy
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Can he play as a rim running, PnR 5 in today’s NBA.
He was good catching lobs at KU, the question now is can he catch lobs off the PnR, and can he hold his own in isolation against guards since he will have to defend PnR switches. If he answers both of those questions positively, I can certainly see him staying in the draft. Doke will need a year in the G League before he’s ready for the NBA whether he stays at KU or not. If he’s close to ready now, he should spend that year in the G League now rather than a year from now.
Vick is going to be okay. He’s heading to the G League most likely. Teams just have to decide what priority to assign him (i.e., do you want to be sure you get him by drafting him in the second round, or do you think you can snag him as a free agent signee). Vick can play in the NBA. I think he likely will. Just not for probably two more years.
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Doke is now a one dimensional player with a still developing feel for the game and many holes in his game that I will guess the combine will expose. He really has no offensive game outside a few feet from the basket, is a below average rebounder for his size and his defense ouside the paint needs work.
Having said that, you can’t teach size and he is got plenty of that and he seems to be a quick learner and a hard worker. He probably will not get drafted but I am sure several team will want to extend a free agent contract to see if he can improve in the G League.
The question is does he want to come back for an additional year to improve his game and get most of his degree completed or make limited money in the G League with the hope of a larger pay check in the near future?
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https://twitter.com/nbadraftgod/status/991058618001772545?s=21
Vick will probably get his shot as a lot of big names are declining invites which is normal.
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Doke had a workout with the Lakers
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I don’t know why is it - -I’m starting to get more of a feel that we are going to lose Doke too?
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Landen Lucas never jumped that high in his life…
Dok was overweight a season ago, what would one more year of Hudy do for him?
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@dylans While I agree some that Landen never jumped that high , I do find it interesting that for all the comments made about Landen the stats show he really didn’t do that bad at all - -pretty good actually.
Rebounding is not all about how high you can jump , a lot more to it then that - and Landen was good at that - -jumping - - - but more importantly a key is positioning - work ethic, foot movement - - blocking out
If you take Udoka where he played the season - -his averaged 2.4 OR per game - - -4.6 DR per game 7.0 TRB -being supposedly 7 ft - which Coach Self said he wasn’t BUT
Now if you look at Landen where he had 2 full seasons - his JR & Sr years: – -he averaged 2.3 OR his Jr yr - -& 3.0 his SR yr - - - - - he averaged 4.5 DR hid JR yr - - - - 5.3 his SR yr
Landen finished very nicely in his two full season JR & Sr years 2 seasons in the top 10 offensive rebounding in the big 12 - - - - - 2 seasons top 10 defensive rebounding & 2 seasons in top 10 total rebounding in the big 12
in Total rebounding in 16-17 his Sr year in big 12 he accounted for 17.9% of the rebounds good for 2nd in the big 12 " " "- - - - - -for his career Landen accounted for 18.4 % of the rebounds good for 6th in the big 12
in Offensive rebounding in 16-17 his SR yr in big 12 he accounted for 13.8 % of the rebounds good for 3rd in the big 12 " " " for his career Landen accounted for 13.8 % of the rebounds good for 8th in the big 12
In Defensive Rebounding in 16-17 his SR yr in the big 12 he accounted for 21.8 % of the rebounds good for 3rd in the big 12 " - " " for his career Landen accounted for 22.4 % of the rebounds good for 8 th in the big 12
In offensive rebounds for his career Landen collected 248 good for 15th in the big 12( - playing part time Fr & Soph} - so not shabby with two season in the top 10 in offensive rebounding
In defensive rebounding for his career Landen collected 454 good for 17th in the big 12 - - ( still top 20 in the league for his career ) with two seasons in the top 10 in defensive rebounding
In total rebounds in his career he had two top 10 seasons his JR & Sr seasons - - - -You put all this together with on top of the fact when Coach Self asked the players who they wanted on the floor with them and they all said Landen - -Landen had a pretty good career jumping as high or not
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Doke’s size and athleticism are top notch. The question is how his basketball skills are going to develop. When in doubt, always bet on the athleticism.
Does an NBA franchise feel like sending Doke to the G League this year and part of next year is a good investment, or do they want him to go back to college, then spend one and a half seasons in the G League? Doke’s age makes this a complicated decision because he doesn’t turn 21 until September of 2020. He won’t be 19 until the start of training cap this year. He’s one of the youngest players in this year’s draft, younger than freshmen like DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley and Mo Bamba. Doke is younger than Anfernee Simons, who would have been an incoming freshman this fall. The only players in the draft that I can find younger than Doke are Jontay Porter, who reclassified last year to play at Mizzou, and Issac Bonga, an international prospect.
Of that group, Doke is the only one to have two years of US college hoops. Porter has one, obviously, and Bonga has played in a pro league in Germany the last couple of years.
That might be enough to convince a GM to take the gamble and stash him in the G League for a year or two.
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@jayballer73 I hope Mitch can become as competent as Landon was. But I also know no matter how much talent you have 1-4 if Lucas is your starting center you aren’t going to the final four.
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I agree that a NBA team might take a gamble on Doke but it will not be in the draft. The more likely scenario is that he is offered a two way contract for the G League that allows him to move for up to 45 days to an NBA roster with the pay prorated to the basic rookie contract for the time spent at the upper level. I just don’t see an NBA team using a draft pick on a player lacking so many of the skills needed at the higher level. One extra year in college, and assuming he can correct his FT shooting, develop better rebound technique/production and most importantly, develop a mid range offensive game, then he would become a potential fist round pick.
The G League currently pays $7k for month plus expenses for a total of $35K for the 5 months of the season, If the player maxes out his time at the NBA level he can earn over $300K per season. Of course, if he is never called to the upper level then $35K plus some bonuses is all he gets. A year ta KU is likely worth twice that amount.
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The question remains whether he would be allowed to develop a midrange game by returning to KU? What’s better for KU - to have Doke shoot 65% because he’s adding a face up game from 10 feet, so he misses some turn around jumpers and such, or have Doke shoot 80% on dunks, layups, jump hooks and lobs?
Can Doke develop in the ways he needs to by returning to Kansas?
Or more accurately, will Bill Self allow Doke to develop the way he needs to in order to succeed professionally?
That’s a question Doke has to answer just as much as NBA teams have to answer the draft/G League/ two way question. But I ultimately think the answer to those questions is not in Lawrence.
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If he stays at KU, his development must happen during the off season and he will just polish the new skill during the regular season. Frankly, if Doke can develop a decent mid-range game, he would be that much more valuable to KU since he becomes a lot more difficult to guard and I can see why the coaching staff would want him to do it. Just my opinion.
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dylans said:
@jayballer73 I hope Mitch can become as competent as Landon was. But I also know no matter how much talent you have 1-4 if Lucas is your starting center you aren’t going to the final four.
Yes very true - -Landen was a decent big nothing flashy but solid - still like you say that just isn’t getting you to a final four
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@jayballer73 It doesn’t make me like him less. Love me some Lando, but it is what it is.
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dylans said:
@jayballer73 It doesn’t make me like him less. Love me some Lando, but it is what it is.
I wasn’t really calling you our directly - just been people bagging on him - a lot not even on this site - -just think it’s kind of funny - he had a pretty decent JR & Sr season that’s all I thinking
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Landen Lucas should have gone down as one of the great five year role players in the history of KU basketball. He did everything he was supposed to, its just that he was asked to do more than he ever should have been. He wasn’t supposed to ever be a starter at KU. Had he been allowed to be a 10-15 minute per game player, his weaknesses would not have been exposed and he may have been a part of a couple of Final Four teams, maybe even a champion.
Lucas was a perfect backup at a school like KU. But he was forced into a role as a starter, which was unfair to him to have to carry that weight of expectation. Imagine if a guy like Jeremy Case had been required to be the starting PG for KU as a junior and senior, or if Jamari Traylor had been asked to be the starting PF his last two years. We would remember them differently because they would have been in roles that exceeded their skills. Jamari got a little bit of that as it was because KU was thin up front towards the end of his career.
We view Landen in a different light because of the role he was cast in, when if we view him as a solid backup, he actually exceeded expectations. That’s how I try to look at Landen now that his career is over - solid backup that was overextended as a starter. He played to his skill level. He was just over extended in the role he was given.
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@justanotherfan good post. led the Big 12 in FG% as a starter. While the Jordan Bells of the world took advantage of Landen, he still put us in position to get that shot against Oregon. Nothing but love for the big guy.
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And, unfortunately, the above analysis being correct, it leads to only one conclusion. Bill Self blew it. Both with his decisions on playing time and his roster building. Watching Nova win it all, watching teams win with the stretch 4 at the 5 spot, we can now see how valuable Diallo would have been had he been managed properly. Self was behind the curve there and chose the plodder. How history might have been different had Diallo been the choice of Lucas.
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@HighEliteMajor seems logical from outside looking in, but that’s assuming we know all of the factors at play.
Also, Diallo would have been gone, but I don’t think that’s your point. You’re talking about “the Diallos” and “the Landens”. Devil may be in the details though.
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Maybe Self never wanted Diallo, but Adidas did…
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@approxinfinity I was referring to Diallo the season we lost to Nova in the Elite 8. That year, Diallo was banished in favor of the pedestrian Lucas, on the apparent assumption that we only needed our post man to do certain things. We can always revert to the idea about other factors. It is the perpetual “get out of jail free card” that can be played at any time, from folks (not you) that have no other explanation for bad decisions. It can always be a partial explanation – of everything and anything.
The handling and lack of use of Diallo was horrible and unforgivable. Diallo wasn’t this unique, stupid, malcontent who was incompetent on the court. You develop a player over a season.
If Lucas had been here this past season, or Traylor, DeSousa would never have seen the court. And DeSousa was twice the player (a minor hyperbole alert) that either of those guys ever were, within 60 days of setting foot on campus.
However, the second part of my point is just as horrible and unforgivable – being in a position to rely on Lucas a starter as you pointed out (same with Jamari Traylor). Our program, our results, would have been better if neither of those players ever started a game. Bill Self need only look in the mirror when wondering why, over Mason’s four seasons, we never reached the final four.
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I disagree. Diallo’s issues and his late start placed him way behind the curve with the KU system in part due to the late start and in part due to his low basketball IQ due to his previous limited exposure to the sport and, while extremely physically gifted, proved to be a slow learner. At KU he was more of a liability than an asset and the players themselves chose Lucas over him…this is pretty telling.
In his second year in the League he still has not secured a spot in the rotation or roster because of his highly inconsistent play and he either plays during garbage time or has lots of DNP- Coach decision. Even this season he spent time in the G League learning the game. Obviously the Pelicans hope he will eventually develop but at this time he looks like the prototype journeyman bench warmer.
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Measurements:
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Svi 6’ 6.5’’ without shoes and only a 6’ 4.75’’ wingspan. He is essentially a 6’5 type player. Not good.
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Newman 6’2.5 without shoes and a 6’5.5 wingspan
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Doke 6’10 without shoes and a 7’7 wingspan!!!
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Preston 6’8.75 and a 7’2 wingspan
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Devonte 6’0.25 without shoes and a 6’6.25 wingspan
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@JayHawkFanToo One observation I make is that Landen Lucas is playing basketball in Japan, on some team called Toyota Alvark. If the logic you are suggesting is each player’s respective professional standing, Lucas is playing in McDonalds and Diallo is a step below Jean Georges in NY City. Diallo has actually played in an NBA game. Multiple games.
Now, you do realize what you’re saying. You’re saying that Diallo was so incompetent (BB IQ), and that despite the fact that he was simply better at basketball than our slug Landen Lucas, Self just couldn’t play him. Yet, Diallo was somehow competent enough (BB IQ) to play in the NBA. 12 games his first season, 52 his second.
He was never more of a liability than an asset. He just needed game action to develop and acclimate. No doubt, it takes a little time to grasp the entire Self scheme. Self was just impatient because he had his safety blankets.
What he needed was time, commitment, and coaching. They gave up on him. They chose to abandon his development in favor of a low, low ceiling Lucas who when matched against better players, gets overwhelmed. The evidence is undeniable. Yet, in the face of knowing that, seeing that, and seeing the alternative player actually playing in the NBA while our guy (Lucas) sets picks on the Hamburglar in the basketball stronghold of Japan.
It’s the same reason for playing Jamari Traylor – the “known” was less risky than the “unknown.” Bad way to make decisions.
It was a huge fail by Self and his staff.
@BigBad - Wrong. Just dead wrong. Diallo was 6’7 1/2 barefoot with a 7’ 4 1/2 wingspan. Standing reach over 8’ 11".
Lucas’ wingspan is 4 1/2 inches less than Diallo.
Lucas was not a rim protector. Diallo was. Diallo could jump. Lucas, well, not really.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640034-cheick-diallo-nba-combine-2016-measurements-analysis-and-draft-projection http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cheick-Diallo-71440/
http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3919335/cheick-diallo
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And yet when asked by the players who they would rather have trust on the floor more steady - they all in /unison said - - LUCAS - -hmmmmmm
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What am I wrong about? All I did was list yesterdays measurements. I wasn’t comparing them to anyone.
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#Pelicans The Pelicans are counting on Cheick Diallo to become an “impact player” for them in 2018-19.
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@BigBad I know
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Doke and Preston’s measurements are big positives for both of them. Devonte as well, though he is shorter than most would prefer, but that length means he can play a bit bigger than his height.
Newman neither helps nor hurts his stock with his measurements. He needs to defend this week at the combine.
Svi hurts himself a bit, but can remove some of those concerns with a good showing shooting the basketball. Svi was always going to be more of a shooter than anything else. JJ Redick also has a wingspan shorter than his standing height, and he’s done okay in the NBA. Svi isn’t quite that level of shooter, but he likely will have the same type of role as Redick in the NBA.
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@BigBad My apologies. My first read on your post was that it said Diallo not Svi. Sorry about that.
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It is an interesting intellectual exercise to discuss players like the Big Red Dog, Billy Preston, and especially Diallo, as if Self were free to play them as much as the apparent lesser talented players that he opted in most cases to play more of the time instead.
But none of the three EVER probably would have been signed had Self had greater access to the kinds of big men that tend to sign with Elite programs in the EST, so I am not sure that one cannot discuss them this way in any truly meaningful way.
Diallo and Lucas were apparently a package, i.e., a kind committee, solution to a problem of insufficient D1 bigs apparently precipitated by an apparent recruiting embargo, obstruction, asymmetric channeling, or something else (you choose) of OAD/5-star grade talent at the 5.
The only reason they apparently WERE signed was what now appears an extended, and perhaps intensifying, recruiting embargo/blockade/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose) that has apparently constrained the recruiting by our Hall of Fame coach with the highest winning percentage of any active coach in recent years, depending on the 10 year and less time frames one parses with.
With hindsight, we now can at least guess somewhat reasonably why both Cal and Self competed to sign Diallo (the hyper sashimi of big man basketball recruits), and the motivations appear to have been starkly different.
Cal apparently wanted Diallo, because: a.) raw, apparently baggage-laden guys like Diallo were apparently NOT a problem for UK to get cleared; b.) Diallo’s absence of recognizable basketball fundamentals was not a great deficit in Cal’s hop, skip and a jump high school offense (that already no one else runs); c.) Cal apparently correctly anticipated UK was shortly no longer going to be awarded long stacks by whatever powers may be that giveth long stacks and taketh long stacks away; and d.) Cal apparently correctly reasoned that if he signed Diallo to keep him away from Self, Self would lack sufficient inside depth to be a serious threat to UK and perhaps other Nike-contracted programs come March. All in all, it was pretty savvy of Cal to try to recruit the raw, apparent human baggage carousel that was Diallo, wasn’t it?
Now reflect on our Coach Self a moment.
Self, in contradistinction, had already had extensive experience with trying to win with 3, or fewer OADs, and had loooooong experience with not being able to sign, or coach, OAD/5-star players at the 1 and 5 spots. And Self was increasingly familiar with having to develop and play 3-4 star projects. This was the temple of Bill’s familiar that was all entirely Greek to Cal. In any case, Bill apparently took a significant risk (specifically of failure to clear) and signed Diallo: a.) to have someone (even someone without recognizable basketball fundamentals) with D1 grade athleticism and size inside at least for some depth; and b.) he appears to have taken his roulette wheel chance on Diallo precisely because he could claim that Kentucky recruited him, too. That’s it. I can’t see any other angle, can you? Bill was apparently rolling the dice to find someone that might be a fast learner (a second lightening strike like the prior project that was Embiid) in hopes of maybe being able to put at least one big on the floor with draft choice grade athleticism. He was apparently gambling, and with some desperate futility it appears in hindsight, that if Cal and UK figured they could get him cleared, then he MIGHT, or so it appears in retrospect, be able to shame the NCAA into clearing him for KU, also. A coach apparently behind a recruiting 8-ball has to remain optimistic and try every angle to have even a reasonable chance of remaining successful at the level Self has attained, right?
So why am I spending so much time on Diallo other than that you guys are arguing the merits of a guy that has never showed an ability to start and play anywhere in college or the pros?
Diallo, to me, is the poster child for what KU recruiting has largely defaulted to in the case of big men, at least.
The once vaunted Big Man U can recruit many OAD/5-star big men and get quite a few to attend Late Night, but for reasons as impenetrable as rumored scalar energy warfare, can’t sign them AND clear them AND avoid issues after clearance that make playing them after a certain point before, or during a season tantamount to having to vacate that season.
KU’s new nickname should be “Big Baggage Man U + 3-4star Project Man U.”
So: thinking about Diallo vs. Lucas misses the point IMHO.
Self never had a rational option to play Diallo, or Lucas, other than he did.
Let me explain why I believe this was so.
Sure, I stipulate that playing either player a lot more would have improved that player a lot more. And playing Diallo more would likely have yielded a better 5 by some point in the season than playing Lucas more, if the risks of relying heavily on either player were more or less the same.
But they apparently weren’t the same.
Diallo was apparently a baggage carousel big from the git go, and Lucas was apparently not.
Thus the baggage risks with Diallo were apparently up here.
And the baggage risks with Lucas were apparently way down here.
Thus, Self’s only rational option from a risk management stand point was to play both in just about the increments that he did, when he did, as the baggage risk drama played out.
Diallo and Lucas appeared to have been two sides of the same coin of Self’s big man strategy resulting from an apparent recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else phenomenon (you choose) that leads into Self never recently having the kind of roster of bigs comparable to other D1 Elite programs.
Since Self apparently cannot sign OAD/5-star bigs without baggage, he has opted to sign: a.) baggage projects with D1 athleticism; and b.) 3-4 star development projects without D1 athleticism; and then c.) hedge his bet on the baggage carousel big with over reliance and development of the 3-4 star project.
Thus, Self always has to anticipate and scheme the team around bigs that take years to develop, plus around bigs that likely won’t get cleared, or if they do get cleared, will pose season long risks of other discoveries of baggage; that appears to be the big man committee at the KU 5 position, perhaps since the 2008 team, but definitely more recently.
Self apparently could NEVER start and largely rely on Diallo, because Self could apparently never be certain how his signing of, and heavy reliance on, Diallo would be viewed by the powers that were, and, so, could never fully discern how signing Diallo might be used against him by the powers that were. And increasingly in hindsight, it appears that the powers that were were not JUST the NCAA, if the recent, reputed widening of the FBI/DOJ investigation is to be given creedence. There appears to be some kind of as yet vaguely understood “complex” involved. Satisfying one part of said vague complex would not necessarily guaranty satisfaction of its other parts. Some parts may be in considerable conflict and competition at times. Its hard to say.
Thus, the complexities of this circumstance reduces rational coaching of baggage carousel bigs to a kind of risk management activity, not to an activity aimed at optimization of a particular player. This same circumstance apparently leads to the playing of inferior players as part of the risk management strategy; i.e., as a kind of hedging against relatively difficult to accurately quantify risk.
IMHO, Self appears caught in, and appears to be making, something approximating “satisficing” choices about big man development in a world of problematic roster trade-offs resulting largely from an apparent, and so far only vaguely understood, recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose).
Thus it becomes a somewhat metaphysical discussion whether or not Diallo with many more minutes of PT would have developed enough over the course of the season to have helped KU go far deeper in the Madness, than what actually transpired. What actually transpired was apparently the most rationally feasible option Self could make with the limited information he likely possesses (and his limited information is likely significantly more extensive than what we possess). Self apparently chose to risk manage by, if you will, building a big man derivative out of Diallo and Lucas,and, when the risks of playing Diallo more down the stretch outweighed the advantages of playing him a lot, then Self apparently had little or no rational alternative other than to do it the way he did. It simply seems improbable that given the complexities of the situation that faced Self regarding his apparent baggage carousel big man that he could have with 100 percent confidence predict that it would be risk free to invest solely, or even just primarily, in his development.
Diallo, Cliff, and Billy all fit into this hypothesized derivative model of Self’s big man by committee approach. The inferior player has to be played a lot in order to allay the risk of even having the baggage carousel big on the roster.
Think about this past season a moment. Self had to develop not only Doke, who couldn’t do anything on offense but dunk, but he also had to develop the talent-challenged Mitch Lightfoot precisely because of Billy Preston’s roster presence. Self apparently chose to prepare for the entire season, not as if Billy would play, but as if Billy might not play. Had Billy not been a baggage carousel big, Self might well have been able to cryo-ice Mitch, or maybe even never sign him at all, had Self been able to sign two non baggage carousel big men with talents and abilities typical of D1 bigs at other Elite programs.
Would KU have been better, if Billy had not been a baggage carousel big that played full time? Maybe, but not certainly in the age of the three point basket. Self probably wouldn’t have let KU’s trey shooters take as many threes and so KU would almost certainly have lost some games, as a result. Billy might have been able to off set those losses due to reduced trey shooting, but not necessarily. But Billy would likely have been able to trigger a W on those games, when KU was slumping outside and needed higher productivity inside to get a W. But these are metaphysical considerations. The fact apparently was: Billy was apparently a baggage carousel big, or Self appeared to sense that he might have been at some point or other. At any moment he could have apparently not been cleared. At any moment he apparently could have left the program without playing a game. And in fact, he did leave the program finally before playing in a conference game. So: Self apparently rationally was wise to recognize the risk of that eventuality by developing Mitch and suboptimzing Billy even in the exhibition games.
Hedge fund investors probably appreciate and respect what Self has done in the case of Diallo and in the case of Billy, probably with Cliff also. To them, they would not dare build the derivative without some kind of a guarantied insurance contract (a contract that insures against the collapse of either end of the derivative), even if it was a fake, or underfunded GIC. But Self? Man, he sails into most seasons in a stiff head wind diverting most playable OAD/5-star 5s to EST Elite Programs, and he patches together a Diallo and a Lucas derivative at the 5, or a Billy and a Mitch derivative, and without so much as a single GIC, he charts a course for winning 82%, 30 games, a conference title and a Final Four. He doesn’t often get to the Final Four, but almost always drops anchor along the way at each of the other destinations on his chart.
Damned impressive.
The captain can sail.
(Note: All opining and speculation about appearances by a layman fan viewing remotely. No insider knowledge of what is REALLY going on. Rock Chalk!)
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You are talking about apples and oranges. What they do now or where they play has nothing to do with where they were in their development while at KU. Look at POY Adam Morrison, he did not last long in the NBA or POY Tyler Hansbrough who is now playing in China or POY Jimmer Fredette that is also playing in China, likewise, there are many players that were not necessarily great in college and were drafted based on potential and did well in the NBA.
No question that Diallo had a higher upside but potential and usable skills are not the same thing. If you consider a scale where the floor is 0 and the top ceiling is 10, most players in the NBA have developed to somewhere between 8-10. At KU Diallo had a floor of 2 or 3 and a realistic ceiling of 7 and most of the time he played somewhere between 3 and 4. Lucas on the other hand had a floor of 5 and a ceiling of 7 or 8 and most of the time he played close to his ceiling, say 7…guess who most coaches are going to play. Lucas maximized his potential while Diallo’s was just that, potential with occasional burst of good play. Coach Self has an obligation to the the program and to the team to play the lineup that will produce the best outcome and Lucas and not Diallo provided that.Thinking that with more playing time Diallo would have been that much better of a player is just wishful thinking. In the learning scale Embiid was freak savant of a learner with incredible natural skill, Josh Jackson a quick learner, Doke and average learner, Alexander a slow learner and Diallo a very slow learner.
Even when he has now been practicing 24/7 for 2 years, Diallo still is playing scrub minutes with trips to the G League. I have the NBA channel and I make it a point to try watching games with former KU players. Diallo plays mostly to give the starters a quick couple of minutes rest, particularly after Boogie was done for the season, and at the end of games when the outcome has been decided.
I guess we just agree to disagree.
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There are two things that factor into whether a player succeeds in the NBA. One is development. That, obviously, has nothing to do with how they did in college.
The other is raw talent. A player has to have a raw talent level of X in order to play in the NBA. There isn’t an NBA direct equivalent, but a few years ago FiveThirtyEight did a feature on a regular guy being created as a Madden player based on his actual skills. He rated as a 12 on the ratings scale. The lowest rated player in Madden that year was a long snapper that rated a 41.
Basketball works in much the same way. To be an NBA player, you would probably have to be “rated” a 55 or so at a minimum. Most regular people would be rated below 15. A guy like Diallo is around a 60 or so at this point in his career. Let’s say that an average D1 player is rated 45.
Diallo had the physical talent to be an above average D1 player. Lucas was much closer to average (perhaps a high 40s, low 50s type). Chances are Diallo, when he left KU, was somewhere between 53 and 57 given that he’s bounced between the NBA and the G League. Lucas is below even that minimum NBA standard.
The guys you point to (Morrison, Fredette, Hansbrough) have the minimum talent level, but they need to adapt their game. All three were primary options in college, but are not nearly talented enough to be number one options in the NBA. They are role players that have been stars throughout their lives. They are guys rated in the high 60s or low 70s, but to be a #1 option, you need to be an 80 or better. They have the minimum talent level to be in the league, but not to fulfill the role they are used to.
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justanotherfan said:
Newman neither helps nor hurts his stock with his measurements. He needs to defend this week at the combine.
I believe he hurt his stock. His 16/17 body fat was 5.6 and is now 6.25. His standing vert was 30.0 and is now 27.5. His max vert was 35.5 and is now 33.5. If I were Andrea Hudy I would be alarmed.
I couldn’t find all of the stats for Svi but he did drop from 11.4% body fat down to 8.45%. I couldn’t find his standing and max vert? He is also down 8lbs so he should jump higher? I guess when they finish updating http://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-strength-agility/#!?sort=MAX_VERTICAL_LEAP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2018-19 we will see?
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Svi lit up the nets today from the 3 shooting 66% leading all scorers with 20pts in 20 minutes off the bench. http://stats.nba.com/game/0921800002/
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Doke said in the Star he’d probably be back without a first round guarantee. I like that a lot.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Doke said in the Star he’d probably be back without a first round guarantee. I like that a lot.
This really couldn’t be put anymore plainly for Doke. - - The article from the star also said : An NBA Scout said they also had concerns about Azubuike’s conditioning.
" The scout said I just don’t know if someone like him is needed anymore, " The Scout said he’s in the wrong era. - if that doesn’t tell Doke at the minimum he needs to come back to College and try to work even harder to have any kind of shot. - I just don’t know if he will ever be in the NBA - -maybe oversea’s - -but NBA - just not sure
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Sucks for Doke but great for KU!!! Hope he is back.
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The issue for Newman is that he was an average athlete before (by NBA standards) and is still a pretty average athlete now. The decreases aren’t a big deal because they still make him average.
He has to show that he can defend 1s and 2s, that he can handle the PnR, and that he can pass. Everyone knows that he can score. He just has to show he can do it on both ends.
I see him as a off the bench spark scorer (Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Bobby Jackson type). If he can defend at an average level, he can make himself very valuable.
