How should Jay attack the find a way boys?
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Can’t imagine him using a zone, their starting 5 all shoot 3’s
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I again call on @stupidmichael. Where are you when we need you?
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Lost to Nova 59-61 on a last second shot 2013 Battle of Atlantis
Lost to Nova 59-64 in 2016 (duh, blown)
Mason could have tied it with a three at the end, but he didn’t even get a shot up.
Who thinks this game will be played in the 60’s?
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I think the other game will be played in the 60’s.
I see this being a higher scoring game of the two with KU having the higher score after 40 minutes
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@Crimsonorblue22 I’m very happy to not have to see Archie diagjdowjdnciejdjpolos play again.
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@Lulufulu He is going to have to change it up, imo. maybe he pulls a triangle in two, maybe a zone…who knows??? But, almost nobody beats Bill after beating him two times in a row.
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@Eric-san Actually they cloned him and renamed him Donte Devincenzo.
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@KUSTEVE Nova shot terrible against Tech’s man defense, the only reason they won was because they had 20 offensive rebounds. Not sure how shooting 33% from the floor and 17% from 3 classifies has shredding anything. I think a zone could work for stretches but they could easily shoot us outta it.
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@kjayhawks Nova shot terrible, yet they still completely dominated them offensively the entire game. They beat the number 1 rated defense in the b12, and the 3rd ranked def in the country. We’re ranked 42nd. So, i think we’re going to have to mix it up.
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@KUSTEVE Would you like to bet on the primary defense played? You can’t zone a team with their shooting numbers.
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@BShark Sucker’s bet. Primary will always be man to man. Even when he plays zone.
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We saw, the last time we played them, what they did to our hand-offs. Because of that, I don’t think we’ll see the weave that much. How about a payback foul against Nova for the horrible one called on Devonte last time we met… There will be a lot of chips on our shoulder’s. but for Svi and Devonte, it’s time for payback.
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@KUSTEVE We are a markedly better defensive and rebounding team ever since the Baylor loss. I like us going M2M on them. I would have been a proponent of a junk defense against Duke, as they were physically imposing matchup that I wasn’t sure we could handle conventionally. I was proven wrong.
This game, I want to play M2M. Perhaps we throw a junk or Zone D out there out of a timeout or something. But I want this game to be on our guys to perform. Whoever mans up deserves to win the game. We owe Nova one. 3 of the starters know how that game felt. They should be wanting payback.
To me, this is one of those games where you just roll the ball out there and play.
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@KUSTEVE I’ll agree to disagree how a team Dominates anything offensively shooting like that and scoring 71 points, 29 of those points came at the line and 6 or 8 came in the final minute and a half with Tech fouling to extend the game. You have to shoot well to dominate the game offensively, open looks mean nothing if you can’t hit them.
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Nice thread. I’m not an X’s and O’s guy, (although I love hugs and kisses!) but I really hope that Bill doesn’t get outcoached like he did two years ago. My memory was Jay threw a little soft press at us that just slowed us down and we never found a rhythm offensively. We might have a little more speed than two years ago as demonstrated by beating WVU three times this year and not having a ton of trouble with their press.
I do like the idea, but it’s probably stupid to run two bigs out there because nova is small. I’m not sure how they’re gonna stop Doke except try to get him fouled up.
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@Kcmatt7 like your comparison list. I felt pretty good until 6th man. That dude is head and shoulders above Garrett. And he worries me. I just think it is so important we establish Dok, collapse their D and free up our marksmen
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@Fightsongwriter I’m wondering if we will need to bring in Garrett at all this game. I think he’s been able to get some minutes because of his handling skills on O and overall D while Graham has struggled a bit.
It’s not clear to me that Villanova can handle DeSousa or Doke. Although, why was DeSousa so ineffectual against Penn?
As for the guards, I think we’ve got to do a little trial and error on D. Vick/Garrett/Graham on Bridges, Graham/Svi on Brunson, Newman/Graham on the “lesser” guard, Svi/Mitch/Silvio on Paschal, Doke/Silvio on their big.
Can KU successfully guard the 5 out with a big in the lineup? If the answer is yes, I think we should win. We should be able to extend our defense a little farther out and challenge them to drive. If Silvio is inhuman and can be on the floor at the same time as Doke and guard Paschal, I like our chances even more.
Alternatively, we should be looking to put Newman in the pick and roll with Svi and Vick in the corners. I like our chances of drawing fouls against this team.
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@wissox Look at the ball handlers in that game vs this game. Replace Ellis and Selden with Svi and Vick. It will be a different ball game with a more favorable outcome. (Willing it into existence)
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I don’t know about JWright, but the 2008 provided the blueprint to attack JWright…
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Kcmatt7 said:
Truth is, whoever mans up wins this game. Whatever one team does to counter in this game, the other can do something to make them pay. Whoever wants it more for 40 minutes ends up on top. Rarely will you see a game where teams match-up so well pound for pound, while playing the same style. Comes down to each guy winning their individual matchup.
- DG vs Brunson - Naismith POY matchup, will be fun to watch.
- Newman vs Bridges - Who can hold who to less points? Or rather, who can score those points most efficiently.
- Vick vs Booth- Who will put their stamp on the game more? Can Vick put up 15 points and make Booth disappear? Or do we see B12 Vick and Booth ends up being the Nova savior?
- Svi vs. Paschall - Can Svi rebound two games in a row? Can Svi make them pay for putting Paschall on a perimeter player?
- Doke vs. Spellman - Can Spellman shoot well enough to force us to put a guard and double-team him? Can he pass well enough out of a Double-team? Can he guard Doke?
- Garrett vs. DiVincenzo - Who will be the more impactful sub? Can Garrett force a couple of turnovers? Or will DiVincenzo have a field day from the arc?
I’m pumped to watch each of these small battles within the larger game.
And Silvio wins us the game …
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@Eric-san Archie diagjdowjdnciejdjpolos in Ukrainian is Svi Mkiaulakizkiamsanmapi
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@HighEliteMajor It’s within the realm of possibility that Silvio is the key player. Mobile but powerful and a big rebounder. Villanova may be secretly praying that we don’t have Silvio in the game. They may be game planning around him for specific plays to exploit his lack of basketball experience. Can he completelyneutralize Spellman? I think he has the ability.
Anybody else have any scouting report? I’m watching the WVU versus Nova game now. Pressing strategy seems to be a net negative for WVU so far.
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KUSTEVE said:
@Lulufulu He is going to have to change it up, imo. maybe he pulls a triangle in two, maybe a zone…who knows??? But, almost nobody beats Bill after beating him two times in a row.
This is why I think KU is going to win: Self will have a counter for Nova.
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@kjayhawks scoring 29 pts from FT is in a way dominating. It means that the team us driving the lasnes shredding the defense at will.
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@Fightsongwriter Easily the best 6th man in the country. But, Garrett can make his own stamp on this game. If he can make life difficult for whoever he is guarding and get them frustrated and out of rhythm, that is as good of a contribution as anything DiVincenzo can do. Garrett needs to be a warrior on Saturday.
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@betterfireE I think jay jay howard has a scouting report. We ought to ckeck in with him.
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Anything specific your looking for? I’m from the Northeast and have watched a ton of Villanova this year.
On the surface both of these teams are carbon copies of each other. They play 8 guys if they need too. However only 6 guys play a majority of minutes. They will use red-shirt freshman forward Crosby-Roundtree and freshman guard Gillespie outside of their 6th man (DiVincenzo) who is the best in the country IMO.
Villanova statistically has one of the best offenses in the past 15 years, they shoot a high % from the FT line as a team (78%), their defense is good enough although I disagree that its anything like the team from two years ago. I would simply put it as their defense was no better then KU’s during the regular season but they’ve turned it up a notch in the tournament. The various statistical sites out there will tell you Nova’s defense is significantly been better overall. They actually attempt more 3 pointers then we do thanks to starting 5 guys that all shoot the 3 within their offense.
The only major difference between the Nova team that lost in the 2nd round last year and the team we play Saturday is having their C Spellman eligible (he sat last season with academic issues) and a team that developed together over the past year returning a majority of their lineup. They rebound by committee, against Texas Tech all 7 guys who played double figure minutes had 4 rebounds or more. Fundamentally sound, they share the ball well just like KU so the similarities between both teams is easy to spot.
It’s unique that their best low post player is actually their PG and POY finalists Brunson. He’s methodical, crafty and can get his shot backing down anyone, even bigs. Not a great athlete but must be respected because he’s perfected his craft. A very good 3 point shooter when left alone.
The biggest matchup issue for KU is Bridges IMO. Two years ago this kid made an impact on the Nova/KU Elite 8 game off the bench playing great defense and getting rebounds/offensive put-backs against us. He’s now a bonafide 1st round pick in the upcoming draft as he’s shown the ability to punish teams inside/out and also can be their go-to playmaker. He’s a tough cover for us as the assignment likely goes to Vick who’s given up size to Bridges. He’s also an excellent defender who’s going to make life difficult for someone. I hope we are able to be aggressive against him and possibly get him into foul trouble.
For me the key to beating Villanova will be pace and making shots. I look at two games this year, losses to Butler and Creighton as examples of teams that had excellent offenses that could exploit them in an up and down type of game.
KU’s offense is better then both of those teams and we can run and score a lot of points when we have to. Now in a Final 4 setting with so much on the line and playing in a Dome I don’t know if the flow will allow for a high 70’s/low 80’s type game but if KU is hitting shots early I would think its a good sign that we can push the pace into forcing them to make shots.
I hope KU’s defense is able to force Nova into another bad shooting night as Texas Tech did last weekend. Villanova was very fortunate to win that game and a big part of that was getting 40% of their points at the FT line. Reading what Nova fans have said they are hoping their poor shooting game is out of the way. Maybe its a sign though that can be exploited again. I wonder if Self reached out to Huggins and Beard for some tips after Villanova beat both of those teams in the past week.
If there is anything else you want to know about Villanova let me know.
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OK, I’m pumped beyond belief. I know this will be a great challenge, and I’m completely thrilled we’re playing the 3rd weekend. We’re going to win this game against Nova, and then get our revenge against Michigan as well. Not quite sure of the “how”, but we’re due good fortune our next two games, and we’ll somehow find a way.
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I agree, I just feel it, this team will find a way as they have so many times before. Everything is clicking. Beyond thrilled to experience this Final 4
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Anyone think Bridges may cover Devonte? Remember Devonte has shown he struggles with length guarding him. Think Oregon game last year.
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It could happen, Bridges is their best defender from what I’ve seen all year long. His wingspan and size makes it difficult. Villanova switches 1-4, which is what KU does so there could be times he’s covering him even if its not his primary assignment
I think Bridges is more likely to guard Newman because of the hot streak he’s on. That feels like the matchup Nova wants to limit the most you would think. I don’t know though, Malik is playing at a level that is hard to stop no matter who’s defending him. And KU certainly does a great job putting him in catch and shoot & driving situations that have made the game easier for him. At this point I think the only man that can stop Newman is himself.
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If Nova’s game plan is to stop Malik, then Devonte or Svi or even Vick might go off for 30 points. Every KU players is capable of going off and scoring 20+ in any given game.
KU’s ace in the hole is Doke, Nova has really no one that can match up with him and if they try to double team him it will open the outside to the KU gunners. KU might be the worst possible matchup for Nova.
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@JayHawkFanToo wrong, wrong, wrong. The Zebras will match up perfectly against Doke.
He’ll foul out 30 minutes into the game, I’d almost guarantee it. I’ll bet Jay is making that his major offensive strategy. Once Doke is out of the game, his D will really be able to push out on the 3 line without fear of easy buckets inside.
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@Blown Doke has been really really foul prone since he was injured. I tend to agree with you that he will likely foul out yet again and that Jay’s gameplan will be a large part of those fouls.
But with my glass half full optimism I will hope that Doke is the X factor in this game and that he has the best post season performance of his young career. 20 and 10 from Doke (with 4-5 earth shattering dunks) with only 4 fouls would be a thing of beauty!
Rock Chalk!
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We need to use Doke in heavy screen schemes to try to get Nova to switch, leaving him in a mismatch in the low post.
Doke has to watch his fouls, because their strategy when Doke has the ball in the low post against a smaller man is to draw fouls.
Doke has to watch dropping his shoulder, or using a hook on his pivots.
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drgnslayr said:
Doke has to watch dropping his shoulder, or using a hook on his pivots.
I agree. The hooking in particular is a recent development that I am sure the coaching staff is working on eliminating.
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@JayHawkFanToo @drgnslayr It appears to me on the hooking, guys usually slide by if they use just the upper arm and don’t create significant contact. When the lower arm/hand are involved, it’s an easy whistle. Now, Doke did get called a few games back for just the upper arm, but he really shook the defender with the impact. I think the hooking is just a focal point for refs with Doke. They’re looking for it with him.
Against Duke, the hooking was a bad call. It was hooking to be sure, but it should have been called a travel. Replay showed a clear travel if you look at it.
@Blown Against Nova, Silvio might be just as effective, but in a different way. I don’t fear Doke being on the bench for stretches. He will be. Bank on it. So Silvo better buckle it up.
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If dokes mom gets there, skys the limit for him! I know, wishful thinking
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@Crimsonorblue22 spoken like a mama
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The MOM FACTOR is real.
KENPOM needs to start building it into his models.
The gamblers need to account for it, too.
Every game assessment should take it into account.
How many mothers of rotation guys will be there?
Any team with MUA in mothers has to be given a sharp edge.
Seriously.
Devonte’s mother is good for about 10 points more per game from DG and 4 rpgs more, as well. I think DG makes fewer TOs also.
I am starting to call it the LUV/EAR EFFECT.
These mothers’ love puts them in that zone of not to little and not too much concentration (i.e., a sense of security I suppose), and these mothers’ willingness to drag them to their rooms for dogging it gets them on an edge.
I think fathers often have a similar effect, also, but currently our culture, especially our African American subculture, has been so devastated by the insidious combination of job outsourcing and drug dumping and marijuana arrests (apparently largely done to keep the private prisons occupancy rates up, and keep the social unrest from hollow-out economics down) that one parent families are the new normal. So: we notice it as THE MOM FACTOR presently, but we can hope and pray that over time all Americans begin to understand that they have been had by the private oligarchy’s vicious divide and conquer identity politics and begin to pull together again as one group–AMERICANS–and we get the fathers and mothers back together raising their kids and amping them for games, etc.
End the divide conquer!!
Restore the family NOW!
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Blown said:
The same way he did in 2016. Beat our offensive players to their spots. Cut off handoffs. Block the passing lanes.
This will be one of those games that Self should revisit his previous March Carney Loss.
You are really onto something here with them beating our players to spots and denying handoffs.
Did you notice that against Duke KU almost never ran the weave. I suppose that was related to Duke playing predominantly zone defense, but…
What I wanted to call your attention to, though, is that KU maybe no longer needs to run the weave to be effective. Put another way, maybe Self has addressed the problem you have identified. Maybe he has decided to take what they give us and not force the weave–just take it if it is not being denied.
You point really fascinates me.
Self SHOULD have an alternative to weaving, if teams decide to deny the weave.
I guess we are going to find out, because it makes sense that Way Wrong, er, Jay Wright, would try denying the weave again.
If Coach Self were NOT prepared for Wright denying the weave, then you get to give Coach Self a well deserved “See, I told you so.”
Rock Chalk!
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Kcmatt7 said:
My hope is that we school Paschall a couple of times on the Perimeter and they have to go small with 4 guards to matchup defensively.
Won’t it be interesting to see whether Self plays it their way, or tries to force them into a 4 guard perimeter?
Self’s tendency over the years has been to start out trying to play it anyway they want and so try to beat them at their own game. Doing so is VERY demoralizing to an opponent. If it works, the opposing coach has to default into something they are not as good at, while feeling demoralized, and KU then usually walks away and leaves them.
And if playing it their way doesn’t work, then Self gets to fall back into playing it our strongest way, and that usually stems the tide, until Self can come up with something specially tailored in the moment for the second half.
Self is a wascally wabbit, as Elmer Fudd used to say.
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Playing any kind of conventional zone against a team with 5 three point shooters would be very, very risky.
But I agree with you that it would help to force Nova into some of the recognition problems we faced against Duke with a mix of morphing zones and M2M.
But I can never tell with Self. I ALWAYS think switching in and out of zones to trigger recognition issues makes sense, but he only rarely resorts to it, and I have never been able to figure out exactly WHY he decides to resort to it. Sometimes, I think he is just very pragmatic. It appears he goes into every game intending to play M2M the entire game and only switches to a zone when it isn’t working. And even then Self prefers wonky zones. He was famous for a few years for revitalizing the 3-2 junk zone. And this season, mid season he tried a lite version of Coach K’s morphing zone.
God only knows what he has been saving up for a rainy day this time.
But I suspect we will see it against Nova.
Self’s small N history has been to leave it all on the floor (use the impressive wrinkles) in the Semis and “figure out” a way to win in the Finals.
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@jaybate-1.0 His Final Four record is 3-1. I wonder what him and the staff and Larry Brown have cooked up for Nova. It should be fascinating to watch.
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The weave is about getting the other team to switch to then get a mismatch. That mismatch with our four guards leads to somebody driving to finish or draw and dish for an uncontested 3. The problem with nova is they can switch everything and not be presented with a mismatch.
Think about what offense is and always will be the most predominate in the NBA, the pick and roll. When athletes are equal in ability you then must force the defense to make quick decisions and the pick and roll does this. Of course the more modern version of this really makes it difficult, the pick and pop.
I bet anything our guards do more pick and pop this game. If they hedge you drive if they are slow then the 3 ball for the picker is wide open. Once Nova decides which where they play then we can pick the picker with Silvio or Doke.
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Great point about LB.
I hope he talks to Eddie, too.
And Janks. I always thought Janks and Bill were very creative together.
I always hope Self gets a set of “suggested plans for attack” from LB, Eddie, and Janks.
He probably doesn’t, but what a great kitchen cabinet they comprise.
I might even call Doc Sadler about defending 5 trey ballers; that is to me the unique defensive issue, and one noted by Self already. Regarding Doc, he was kind of a goof ball that probably didn’t mesh will with Bill in some ways, but I always thought he brought some additional defensive insight (more flexibility) to Self that season he was with KU.
I also wouldn’t hesitate to call Rick Pitino about defense. I have a hunch Rick would like to get even with someone for what has been done to him for speaking out about agents and agent runners that one time and I always felt there was not much love lost between Rick and Jay Wrong.
Containing 5 three point shooters is kind of unprecedented and a really interesting strategic/tactical problem to address. There are many approaches one could take, because it is such a unique problem, historically speaking. Not many approaches can be ruled out as possible counters to it.
All coaches and teams become prisoners of their successful experience.
Nova has grown used to winning with 5 trey ballers; this presents some possible counters.
One counter is to simply focus on early foul-up of just one of their trey ballers. If Nova were to have to play without just one, they would not be themselves at all.
Another is to identify which if any of their trey ballers are largely spot shooters and then deny those players their spots; that has nearly the same effect as denying them one of their shooters with foul up.
Another is simply to focus on pushing their perimeter out 2-3 feet farther out than they like and let the added distance reduce their 3pt% be cut about 5-10%; this is much tougher to accomplish and leads to more blow-by drives and that exposes our bigs to more fouling. It also requires playing quite a bit of three quarter court zone press, preferably a 2-2-1 to force them to start their offense farther out so the treys come farther out.
I think Mitch and Silvio are going to play a lot today, because I think our bigs are going to have to chase 25- feet out quite a bit of the time.
The best zone to play for stopping the outside shot is to morph 1-3-1 matchup (MSU’s old matchup zone it played with Magic and that Coach K has dusted off) and 2-3 stretch where they outside base line guys deny the corner three that so many practice and take, and hope the 2 outfront guys can stretch and hustle. But you have to switch between these two or the opponent just sets up and takes the trey out front against the 2-3, or out of the corner against the 1-3-1.
I have this idea of a 4-1 match up zone, where the 4 outside guys form an umbrella zone and Doke/Silvio play a one man zone inside. The idea is that if they send their post out to trey shoot, the umbrella zone crowds in and helps where ever the opposing post man goes to on the perimeter and we take our chances on them getting a few open shots, while we get ALL the rebounds. This is a hedge between their making a few more wide open shots and us denying them all second shots. I haven’t looked at Nova’s second shot numbers, so I don’t know if they rely heavily on second shots or not.
Another interesting angle to to take that could be done with KU’s preferred M2M without Jay Wrong and Nova really realizing it would be to do research on which 3 point spots on the floor are subject to the most DOME EFFECT; i.e., where on the floor outside the three point stripe is the distortion of the dome most and least statistically significant in altering 3pt shooting percentage, and then use our defenders to funnel Nova’s trey shots into the lowest percentage 3point shots in a dome. So far, I have never read that any statisticians have looked into and established this, but I am pretty confident that DOME EFFECT would vary in magnitude of effect around the floor. This would be a terrific and hard for Jay to identify defensive technique, if Jay has not already looked into this localization of DOME EFFECT himself yet. And even if he has, KU’s M2M should exploit this effect. And now that I am thinking about it, Match-Up Zones could EASILY be designed to guard the high percentage zones beyond the trey stripe and to leave relatively unguarded the low percentage zones outside, maybe even with only 4 perimeter defenders and leaving Doke protecting the rim inside and NOT chasing. Oooh, I like this ALOT!! Sucker Nova into shooting a lot of treys from undefended zone regions outside with their big man floating outside into low percentage areas triggered by DOME EFFECT and use our 4 men on the perimeter to guard the regions which least DOME EFFECt.
And one could keep going with this.
Bottom line 5 trey shooters offers Nova a lot of ways to play, if these guys are canning the trey that night in a big Dome.
But we have a lot of ways to deal with it, too.
Gosh, I love this game. It is so much more interesting than chess and global thermonuclear war!!!
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@jaybate-1.0 I suggested that we run a zone, and everybody said there’s no way it would work. But, I distinctly remember a Washington team that ran a “tweaked” zone against us, and beat us with it. So, it’s a matter of tweaking the zone, as you said. i like the 1-3–1.
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KU played extremely poorly that game. Graham 3 points, Svi,. 8 point, Malik 8 points. KU shot 25% from 3 on only 20 attempts and 4-8 FTs.
The players are greatly improved and no way we see a game with those numbers again. KU has seen all kinds of zones since then and none had similar results.
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Yes, you are on the right track. I mean I just finished another post, where I finally went to the Nova web site and sized up their team and the matchup and they are just very imposing. I likened them to our Morri team that Shaka beat, only we are not meeting them on one days rest after playing a Princeton team, as Shaka met our team with.
Frankly, I’m now less worried about them beating us outside, than inside.
Much as I like Vick, Vick vs. Bridges is a nightmare match up.
Svi vs. Spellman could turn into a nightmare matchup with out a lot of help.
A lot of what we do will depend on what Jay does, of course.
If Jay decides to use size, strength, numbers and refs to overpower us and beat us down out of the blocks, I think we have to switch a lot between zone and M2M and between different zones to try to turn it into a 20 minute game, instead of a 40 minute game.
We need to zone press some to force them to start farther out.
But Self doesn’t do these sorts of things much.
He prefers to do subtle things with the M2M, as he did a did against Duke.
I would expect some brief and intermittent stretches of lane jumping defense, too.
I just think he has to disrupt quite a bit the first half to even make it to the second half with his team not overwhelmed and fouled up.
I don’t think KU can afford to let Bridges work on Vick, or Spellman to work on Svi, in ways that allow Bridges and Spellman to overpower Vick and Svi, or kick out for treys; that would be the death of us.
Hence, in M2M, we have to deny Bridges and Spellman the ball inside, and trap Bridges and Spellman from unexpected angles, and be prepared to use backside wings to run to contain Paschal long enough for our center to get back to Paschal. This exposes us to cross court passes to wide open dead eye trey shooters, but that seems preferable to letting Bridges and Spellman run wild.
With 6 trey shooters making 39% or higher from trey, its kind of a whack a mole game playing Nova.
But the key thing to remember IMHO, is that Nova has not played anyone that really guards as well as we do in a team defensive scheme; that was what Duke experienced, also. Nova has built its shooting percentages against outside defenders that don’t contend every trey and don’t get a hand in the face every shot. Nova’s trey shooters also aren’t used to having to chase as many trey shooters as we have all over the court on defense. Their legs will tire same as ours will, since we also haven’t faced chasing so many trey shooters. And the DOME EFFECT will rear sooner or later, along with the tired shooting legs. Thus, the guttiest defenders that can find ways to help to minimize their vulnerabilities in MUA are most likely to win this game, despite each team’s gaudy three point shooting stats.
I never bet against Self Defense in defensive matchups.
But the last time, Jay put it to us pretty good with the refs on his side.
We just have to hope Self has one more defensive rabbit in his hat we don’t know about.
