Bragg Bad? Numbers Say Not So Fast
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@drgnslayr “What I am curious about is how Bill will look at March this year. Will we continue to be one of the most-predictable teams in the tournament?”
Now that’s a fascinating question. Now that Self is surprising us by running with four guards, would new wrinkles in March be too much to ask? This seems like a big year of transition and experimentation for Self. I’m guessing this team will be tougher to scheme against in the tourney than any in recent memory.
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I hope we see that Mason-Graham-Vick-Svi-Jackson lineup at least once this season. That lineup is something that no other team in the country can match up with. I would like to see it tonight, honestly, during stretches where DJ Johnson goes to the bench. The other interior players aren’t thick enough (or skilled enough) to overwhelm Svi and JJ. We could go to that lineup for a stretch and really throw KSU for a loop.
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@justanotherfan I like it on offense, but on defense I think somebody has to play completely out of their comfort zone. I am afraid a two-bigs team would eat us up with passes to the rim.
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@HighEliteMajor Our behind the scenes stud, Jesse Newell posted a great article about this Ummm, early december?
Good stuff tho!
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Perhaps, but how many teams out there honestly have even one big that is dominant enough to score at will against Josh or Svi?
Take DJ Johnson for example. He’s a good player. But if he were matched up against JJ all night, could he post a 13-18 from the field, 8-10 from the line, 34 point, 17 rebound game? Because if he can’t be that efficient and that productive, it’s a wash for KSU to change their attack to force feed him. Johnson averages just over 7 shots a game right now. To get 18 shots, he probably needs 25 quality touches.
That takes shots away from Iwundu, Stokes, and Brown. And since he’s KSU’s best rebounder, if he isn’t getting his own misses, that’s probably one and done on the offensive end for them. I’m just not sure most teams have a big man skilled enough to actually punish KU for going super small, especially on a volume basis.
Does Johnson have the stamina to attack Jackson in the post on literally every possession for 6 or 7 minutes at a time, plus guard someone faster and quicker (and rebound!) on the other end? He only plays 24 minutes a game as it is. I don’t think he has the stamina to actually attack Jackson efficiently for a long period of time. And if he can’t, that advantage shifts back to us because Johnson has no chance to guard out on the perimeter, and he can’t protect the glass if he has to guard 20 feet from the rim.
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@justanotherfan sometimes a faster guy can get around a slower post guy, be fun! Svi and Josh could take turns depending on fouls. We always had to sit withey against mizzou cause of faster post guys.
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@drgnslayr Without a doubt–HCBS is what he is…done deal .
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@justanotherfan Waaaaaaaaay outside the box. I friggin digit !! Sounds much like it has an entirely valid opportunity to be successful. Everyone else in the nation is expecting an Okie State, always predictable Hi
Lo from the ever predictable HCBS…I also think he’s 'fully aware how critical this tremendously rare guard play is in relation to a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP & hopefully has the vision to ride this JJ, FM111, Devonte Graham & Svi train all the way to another Final Four. As usual you show a perspective that not only transcends possibility but enamors probability. Great analysis and this forum thanks you.
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Bill has had a lot of influence recently from people and events.
Some that I think have made him so open to the 4 out 1 in scheme:
Fred Hoiberg, friend and rival that fully employed the scheme. So many matchups against spread offenses.
The shot clock reduction and KU playing in the WUG. Self got to trust his guys to make plays with less structure and the shorter clock made him believe in quicker offense to more possessions and playing with tempo.
The Villanova game. Might have been the tipping point of it all. Going down to guards and one big had to fundamentally hurt him inside.
Josh Jackson. I don’t think without him he would even be doing any of this. Josh can guard 4s and guards and is the ultimate versatile baller. Svi might be the same size but they are not the same player. I don’t think svi would have been the guy to make him go this way
Some food for thought
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@BeddieKU23 lack of post guys too
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@Crimsonorblue22 FYI but Mr Hoiberg finds his little keister on a bit of a hot seat right now. … Chitown, NY , & LA are three spots Mr Smalltown might get only a whiff at being successful in lieu of a one year unacceptable record.
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At least it aint to far to drag that hind end back to ISU if they show him the door
in da big time… He can always be the Mayor in IA, just ask Mr Weatherwax…
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Excellent post!
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Having watched last night’s game, I am even more convinced that we should go with a five guard lineup. We aren’t a strong post defense team anyway. We just aren’t. We don’t necessarily get demolished down there, and we are solid on the glass, but we aren’t gaining any advantage by playing a traditional big man, and I’m not sure there’s a team in the country that can match up with us if we go small like that.
Jackson did whatever he wanted when Wade was on him. Svi got good looks when they put Wade on him briefly. There’s just not a real way to guard KU when they put those five out there together because most team’s don’t have perimeter size to handle Jackson and Svi at the same time. Jackson would destroy a 6-5 guy in the post because he’s a scorer, and if you go super small, Jackson gets to do that.
We might as well push this small ball to its eventual end, which is the Mason-Graham-Vick-Svi-Jackson lineup. I just don’t know that there is a big man that can actually beat us if we go small because what we might give up is more than balanced by what they sacrifice on the other end (defensive rebounding, ability to guard on the perimeter, foul trouble from having a guy that isn’t used to guarding on the perimeter having to cover a guard, etc.).
We have the talent to do it. The matchups are favorable.
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@justanotherfan That makes sense… and yet I’m kinda diggin the way Lucas has been playing recently, Big 12 Player of the Week and all. If he gets even better, watch out!
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My idea isn’t an indictment on Lucas at all. He was excellent last night. Lucas would still have a very significant role. The reason I like it is because it really puts a lot of pressure on the other team’s big men.
You have to bang with Lucas, then chase around Jackson or Svi, then go back to banging with Lucas again? That’s a huge advantage for Lucas to catch the opposing big after he’s been worn down for a couple of minutes, or go against the backup while the starter is on the bench getting a breather. There’s actually a chance that this makes Lucas even more effective. Same with Bragg and, to a lesser extent Lightfoot.
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@justanotherfan who spells these 5
?
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Those 5 already lead the team in minutes, so it’s more about adjusting the rotation and rest than changing up who plays. Frank and Devonte both rest for less than 8 minutes per game each. JJ plays nearly 30, and that includes games where he’s played less than 20 due to foul trouble. Svi and Vick both play over 25.
I wouldn’t play this group together for long. Just a 4-5 minute stretch in each half. It just alters when guys are coming in and going out. Sometimes you go back to a traditional 3 out, 2 in set from the 5 out set. Sometimes you go from 5 out to 4 out, then 3 out. Since our 5 perimeter guys already play a ton of minutes, it doesn’t change much, just the sub patterns.
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@justanotherfan lets do it! Frank was playing great post D on wade!
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Sooooo yeah Bragg’s defense last night was a bit of an issue.
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I understand mixing it for a while to confuse the other team but without Lucas, KU probably would not have won.
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I’m not advocating to play Lucas less. Between Lucas, Bragg and Lightfoot, they played a combined 46 minutes. You could play the 5 guards together and still have Lucas play just as much as he did last night.
An added bonus of playing the five guards together is that Lucas and Bragg would play together more. Bragg showed a nice ability to throw that high low pass last season. Playing Bragg with another big may help Carlton be more effective as well.
My idea is not about cutting anyone’s minutes or anything. It’s about mixing up who is on the court with who to see if we can use the 7 guys that get the bulk of the minutes to create the best matchups for us (or the worst matchups for the other team).
For example, TTech doesn’t really play anyone bigger than 6-8 regularly. Their 6-8 guys aren’t all that bulky, either. That means that we can show the smaller lineup without getting blown off the blocks, but that Landen has a size advantage inside as well. We can wear down their bigger guys by making them guard the perimeter, then let Landen feast on them when they have tired legs in the low post. We can alternately punish them with speed and strength. Landen is a critical part of that equation. He comes out so that we can run them down, then goes back in and punishes them with his strength and size.
We can draw fouls by out quicking (for lack of a better term) them, then draw more fouls by catching them pushing Landen in the post once they are too tired to get quality defensive position. Alternating between the two gives us an advantage by making the opposition adapt to our lineup in real time.
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@BShark everyone’s defense was a bit of an issue - wasn’t just Carlton. You can’t really stop a jump hook when a guy gets that kind of position.
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@BeddieKU23 great points about the teams Bill has come across and the influence they had on him. I recall Hoiberg even stopped by his office one time and talked with him about playing 4 out 1 in.
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"I am even more convinced that we should go with a five guard lineup. "
That’s how I feel. But we have to get our guys to totally buy in to this because we have to speed up our defense and really hustle in order to keep other bigs from getting easy passes into the low post.
I am liking how Landen is playing… and Carlton is starting to come around. But how much pace do we have to kill to keep those guys effective?
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An advantage that I see when playing small is the ability to put the opponents post into foul trouble. Quicker players can really put pressure on the post. As @Crimsonorblue22 pointed out Withey was pulled against smaller quicker post players because he became ineffective. KU needs to put that same pressure on teams to be successful with this lineup.
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The personnel dictates the pace. Obviously, we shouldn’t run helter skelter with Lucas on the floor because we don’t get to take advantage of his best skills if we are playing up and down with him on the floor. That’s part of our problem defensively, honestly.
When we go really small, or if Lightfoot or Bragg is on the floor with the four guard set, run like the wind.
When we go standard, or with Lucas and four guards, slow down a bit so Landen stays involved. Obviously run when its there, but we don’t have to push the pace as much with Landen on the floor so that he can actually get set up on offense and defense.
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I like your vision, but I’m just not sure it is possible to speed the guys up or slow them down during a game, especially several times back and forth (when Landen is in our out).
I think Bill has trouble keeping his players playing at a tempo he likes anyways.
I’m amazed at the final score being so many points on both sides. Sometimes the game seemed to be so so slow… with guards walking the ball up the court, sometimes moving at a snail’s pace.
I think Bill was measuring his team in that KSU game. He wanted to know how they perform at a slower pace, and the purple kitties where more than happy to run a slower game, too.
