Post Late Night musings
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@ParisHawk I agree 100%. Bragg should play in front of upperclassmen who are less talented. That said, I am ready to pull my hair out all year watching Bam Bam and Lucas play big minutes while Bill says that Bragg is “Adjusting to the speed of the game” or some other ridiculous reason. I am about as big of a Self apologist as there is but the thought of another year of Lucas / Traylor playing in front of top shelf freshman makes me want to jump off of a bridge. I can’t even say the recruiting part bothers me (although it should). It is really the thought that a kid like Bragg playing through mistakes will be the guy we want in March. Not Bam Bam. Not Lucas. I am not convinced that either of those guys will ever be good.
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@HighEliteMajor said:
@ParisHawk Same logic apply to Vick? I would think so but you had the thought, what do you think?
Thanks for asking. Using your gun metaphor I would want to pack every gun I’ve used in battle, but might leave behind a gun I’d only fired on the practice range.
A part of Self thinks he’s the one shooting and the kids are his weapons. He wants the grip to feel comfortable in his hand.
I’m more worried about the Royce Woolridge syndrome: Self asks a freshman to redshirt and the freshman says “I’m not planning to stay 5 years”, and sooner or later he’s gone.
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The conversation has focused on our biggest recruiting hurdle since Self arrived in Lawrence.
After the Tarc debacle Self mentioned he would adjust his recruiting tactics. We are all pretty sure that one of those addressed his past attitude of freshmen having to earn their spots over more-seasoned players, even if they were elites. Self even went as far as almost promising Oubre minutes. But the reality of what happened is very different.
This is where we get hammered in recruiting.
Most people are focusing on Cliff’s disastrous year as the excuse for us lagging behind this year in recruiting.
I challenge this.
I tend to think it was the delay in giving minutes to Kelly that had the bigger impact. He did pan out his freshman year and is gone. Might he have gone higher in the draft had he played from Day 1 in Lawrence? I think that is a question opposing recruiters are asking recruits that are considering Kansas.
Our “formula” of mixing long-stay players with OAD-types requires care. It does require freshmen (even elites) to earn their PT and not be given lots of extra leeway… however… there must be a show of good faith that an elite recruit will pay off eventually when our coach shows a bit of patience.
I still think our recruiting suffers from Self showing freshmen the fast hook. It isn’t hard sifting through vintage video footage to find a plethora of examples.
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@drgnslayr I would have given oubre the hook during the WSU game, not hustling!
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This is Braggs face when asked to sit on the bench and watch all of the other bigs play this year!
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ESPN owns the SEC basketball network.
ESPN needs Cal in the Final Four.
ESPN and Cal
Kay, eye, s, s, eye, n,Geeeeee
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It’s like there is a sun halo around his head! I am very excited to watch him mature as a Jayhawk. I hope he stays with us for a long time!
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@drgnslayr or angel
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I know he’s a nice guy… but I hope he isn’t THAT nice! He has to be able to get down in the lane trenches and fight for everything.
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@drgnslayr yeah!
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We know its something that’s holding recruiting back. We’ve talked about Perception being a key factor. It’s got to be what these kids are looking at KU and seeing something negative.
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And is it really negative? (that a player has to actually EARN his PT?)
I do understand (at least I think I do) Self and his desire to recruit players that are not only talented, but have a down-to-earth mentality (humility).
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I juts don’t see a problem…yet. 10 of the top 20 player have not signed and, of the players that have signed, some are going to programs such as NC State, Florida State, Alabama, Washington, Villanova, not necessarily power house programs.
Unfortunately we are in the age of instant gratification and top players want to go to programs where they will get lots of playing time and where they will be the big fish in the big pond, even when most are not ready. Their percepti0n of their skills and reality sometimes are worlds apart.
Also, the latest conference ranking have the Big 12 as the toughest conference from top to bottom…do you think that some recruits choose to go a -bigger but not as tough- conference with its own network and bigger audience such as the Big 10? Michigan State seems to be doing well with the upcoming class, while KU which will have several games blacked out is not? Just a thought…
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Sure 10 of the top 20 have not signed, 4 of them are not even considering KU. That leaves 6…7 if you include Azubuike.
So we threw our hat in for Giles (Duke lean), Fox (Kentucky Lean), Monk (Kentucky or Arkansas lean), Jackson (Arizona or Michigan St lean), Bolden (Duke lean).
All these guys have ties to the respective programs they are considered leans to end up at. Bolden seems content on being the 5th wheel at Duke (mom wants him to Duke) instead of the big fish in KU. Giles wants to play with Tatum and company. Monk & Fox will feel the UK pressure to play on the big stage, Jackson is the most wide open but he really opened up about Michigan St’s recent success.
Jarrett Allen has been to Notre Dame- we made the top 8 and have been working on him. No visit scheduled.
Azubuike visited, also went to Florida, NC St & FSU recently . No idea where his recruitment is going, does FSU hold the cards still, will he go from Nike to Adidas? Will he leave the southeast?
At this point Allen & Azubuike are the only guys that seem to be wide-open & generally interested in KU at this time. Who knows that could be incorrect as well.
Things can change quickly, they usually do & Self usually comes through. I’m not saying he won’t but this doesn’t look like a normal year the way its going. We have spots to fill, at least 3 could be as high as 5. How are kids not interested in that fact?? Something is up
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@BeddieKU23 Bolden’s comments post Late Night sound like he’s back to being a KU lean and is talking about not even taking his UK and Duke visits.
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@BeddieKU23 is exactly right. We aren’t really in on many of these.
Really, the silence from Lawrence is deafening. Gone now is the age of commitments in the week following Late Night it appears.
Here are more stark numbers.
10 of the top 20 have not signed or committed.
However, only 18 of the top 60 remain unsigned - that means only 8 of the next 40 (between 21 and 60) are available.
Of the top 100, only 29 are available (or 19 of the next 80, who are outside the top 20).
But as @JayHawkFanToo said, it’s not a problem … “yet.”
It’s how your class ends. But it is certainly disconcerting.
By the way, TJ Leaf cut us from his list today – #13 player.
All is right in the world if we sign Bolden. I like the positive stuff @Texas-Hawk-10 mentioned. Cross our fingers. Bolden is the man.
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There’s a few ways to look at earning PT.
We know Self values seniority, experience, trust, defense, hustle, understanding of the system. The List goes on and on…
It makes it darn near impossible for a freshman to check all those boxes most years. Some have come here & exceeded or played to the talent they were hyped to be. Some have disappointed, that’s going to happen everywhere, at every school.
If we look at just last year, the perception could say that Self failed to showcase Cliff & Kelly for the NBA. Kelly still went high but it could have been lottery had he not struggled in Self’s eyes to get on the floor. Self has to evolve if he gets these top kids, we are just the pit-stop you don’t hurt the merchandise. Mold them if you can but be gentle because they have more power than you think, especially in recruiting…
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I had not seen Bolden’s comments until you posted that so thank you. We will have to wait to see if he makes trips to Duke’s & Kentucky’s Late Night festivities. It would definitely be an advantage for us if he doesn’t go anywhere else.
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@BeddieKU23 said:
We know Self values seniority, experience, trust, defense, hustle, understanding of the system. The List goes on and on…
Yes, indeed. But if in addition Self values intangibles over tangible results (see Cliff) and that helps the presumed OAD drop out of the draft (see Cliff), then recruits are going to hear: “at KU, you don’t play even if you’re better!”.
Again, it’s not just the preference for upperclassmen that is the problem: it’s the preference for pedestrian upperclassmen over non-pedestrian freshmen.
How can that not be used against Self in recruiting? An opposing coach who doesn’t play that card is simply not doing his job.
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@ParisHawk Good points. It is certainly interesting as Bill has played mediocre talent in front of super high recruits (Oubre / Alexander) but he has also gone with certain freshman from the first tip and let them play through mistakes. Wiggins, Selden and BMac come to mind. These guys were given the greens light without going through any of Bill’s doghouses, deep freezes, mental toughening running on treamill drills. Are these examples just players who are that talented from day 1?
Fully agree that coaches all over the country are saying “Look what KU did with Selby, Oubre, Alexander…”. I guess it is Bill’s job to say “Look what KU did with Wiggins, B Mac, T Rob, Morris Twins…”
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@joeloveshawks I’m being a Negative Nancy here, but what did KU do with Wiggins? He went from potential to results in the pros, not at KU.
Embiid would be the story if he weren’t hurt.
KU has had success with the multi-year players, not so much the presumed OADs.
Why aren’t the guys rated 20 through 50 on their knees begging to come here? They could have dorms as insane as the UK OADs and work their way up to lottery status. SMH…
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@ParisHawk Truth is, we didn’t do much for Wigs, but honestly, that was job number 1: Do no harm. Most of the OADs that come through any program aren’t coming out significantly better than they came in. The biggest challenge in handling those kids is not turning them into draft duds. Despite the two big black eyes we’ve had with OADs, we aren’t the only program to fail to make hay with top 10 players. Even Cal, the poster child for OAD basketball, has had several let downs, especially recently.
The fact remains, though, that Cliff’s situation has hurt us on the recruiting trail the same way Selby’s did. And like with Selby, what should be a big and relatively painless recruiting haul has turned into an uphill battle. The best way to right the ship will be to improve Diallo’s stock if he’s eligible. If he’s ruled a partial qualifier, that still gives us the chance to improve Diallo and take credit (though that could totally torpedo NC hopes for this season, unless Mickelson can really be a starting calibler big).
As for why we aren’t killing it with the 20-50 guys, I think there’s two things:
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Self is overconfident in his recruiting. He clearly sees himself as on par with Cal, K, and W, but the fact of the matter is, although he does recruit very well, he’s not quite at their level (although Roy has slipped a little lately). I can’t imagine why we’re spending the time and money on a guy like Giles, who has next to no chance to pay off, when a kid like DeRon Davis is a state away, has great potential, and would give us the opportunity for another Robinson/Morri-esque quill in our collective cap.
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Self is a really good recruiter. And although that seems counter to what I’m saying above, Self does get a good share of elite talent, and those top 20-50 guys aren’t going to want to throw in with KU if they’re going to get buried on the bench. That’s why this year should be relatively easy. We have tons of minutes opening up and a post guy in that range should get the opportunity to establish himself early and not have the next big thing play over him. But Self needs to make those guys a priority. Right now we appear to be doing that with Herard, and I think it’s going to pay off from the way things sound. He’s not visiting Cal anymore, and they were in his final 5. He wants to take a final visit, but the way his handler is talking, it’s just because he grew up poor and is basking in the luxury while he has it. We’ll see, though.
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@ParisHawk What Self did with Wiggins was vastly underutilize his talent.
As usual, system is the culprit. I love this quote for a scout near the time of the 2014 draft about Wiggins, “In general, interesting kid. In fairness to him he played in a very restricted system at Kansas. All interchangeable parts with designated spots, a lot of structure. When he got the ball, there wasn’t a lot of room to create.”
Exactly. We underutilized his talent.
I did watch some NBA last season. And amazingly, the T-Wolves actually posted up Wiggins on the low block when he had an advantage over an opponent.
Imagine that, exploiting match ups.
This is one of my huge issues with Self’s approach. A large portion of the basketball universe finds ways to exploit matchups. But Self just doesn’t – or more precisely, it is subservient to system. We had Wiggins for an entire season, with many times inferior defenders guarding him. How many times did we post him up?
And it isn’t complex. It isn’t difficult. It isn’t out of the ordinary.
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@HighEliteMajor So should we post up Svi? I’ve been waiting for an opening to ask that question…
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@ParisHawk I think we should seek to post up players who have an advantage down low. My caveat is if a player simply can’t score in the post. Meaning, if a smaller guy doesn’t have much ability to score down low, and for whatever reason shows he can’t do that reasonably well, then skip it. But if Svi is at the 2, matched with a 6’2" guard, and Svi is reasonably competent in the post, why not slide him there a few times per game? If he’s successful, you do it until it’s stopped. Once stopped, that means an adjustment by the opposition, of which you can seek to exploit.
One thing about posting up guards – they can pass well, and create from that spot just as they can otherwise.
Posting a player up is just one example. It could be isolating for a drive, or playing a two man game on the wing. Just taking advantage of each player’s skills when possible, and to exploit weaknesses in match ups more.
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I really like how you mentioned exploiting match ups. That is something we simply do not do. I thought we would pick up some things from the Mayor when he was around. He sure made it look easy with all of his juco transfers…
“What Self did with Wiggins was vastly underutilize his talent.”
I think I would change the word “talent” with “potential.” Wigs talent in HS was mostly pure athleticism. He didn’t possess great handles, and (for the most part) only had his spin move.
What I believe we should have done was have someone work with Wigs to develop a few main moves. Like… how about a pull-up jumper? But, instead, Wigs was told to always take it to the rack. Okay… he got fouled often. But he made almost zero finishes at the rack. Why? Because he grew fearful of getting bashed and potentially injured. Just teaching him how to locate his spots on the floor and to create a drive move and pull-up is like teaching a fastball pitcher his second pitch… a breaking ball. Suddenly, the pitcher advances past AA ball and hits the majors and is vying for the Cy Young award!
Just teaching him a pull-up would have made him so much more effective and given him confidence. He would have handled the rock much better because he would then have options instead of just brute forcing it at the rim.
How hard could that have been to teach? Really?
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Based on the latest news, I see Bolden as a KU lean and not Duke. Keep in mind that Duke has only two senior on the roster and they have already signed 3 players, which means at least one underclassman will have to leave, transfer or go off scholarship, assuming they do not sign anyone else. Sure they can sign two more players such Giles and Bolden but that means 3 returning players lose their scholarship…that is a lot and would not reflect well on the program. If I were a betting man, I would guess that Duke gets at most maybe one more player or none.
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@drgnslayr A pull-up jump shot generally results in a shot of about 15 to 18 feet. I thought that there was general agreement among the cognoscenti here that this is the worst shot imaginable. All we should be shooting are threes or layups. It is absolutely amazing that what is popular here one day is shizz the next and vice-versa.
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I meant pull-up off the drive. That could be anywhere from about 8 to 15-feet.
I don’t think it is reality to say we are only going for dunks (layups) and treys. Just not realistic, and before long, neither layup or trey will come easy because teams will give up on everything else to defend the trey and the rim.
How many layups or stuffs did Wigs make at KU? How many did he miss? I venture to say he would have batted a much higher average had he done more than take it to the rack. Other teams learned they could just pinch him near the rim and make him ineffective.
I look at Wigs and I see a young Kobe Bryant. A guy that brought his drive to the league, and within a few years went from an inside game to a perimeter game. A huge part of his success was learning to score in mid-range.
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@sfbahawk I think it’s amazing we sign anybody!
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They only have 10 scholarship players, so I believe that gives them 3 spots if they choose to use them along with the 2 Sr’s…
Ingram is a OAD, as long as he does okay. I posted in the other thread about Bolden. Allen, Thornton & Jeter could all flirt with the NBA depending on how the year goes.
They definitely seem to be recruiting like they have an infinite amount of spots to give.
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Great post.
We did underutilize Wiggins. I also think it’s taken the NBA game, to utilize his talent. He wasn’t meant for a highly structured system, but he did his best to fit in & do what he could.
It will be interesting to see in year 2 if he takes a step up with more surrounding talent ( Towns) & guys back from injury. Was his success parlayed by being the only option on a very bad team? He wasn’t highly efficient & the wise guy analytic’s of the world have been quick to point out that.
The one good thing pointed out was that Self didn’t harm his stock. He came into the league defensively prepared and that definitely helped him adjust quicker to the league than the average rookie.
I’ve also thought is there anyone on this years team who we might be underutilizing?
First name that pops into my mind is Selden.
Been a big critic of him, but this summer changed my mind on him, hopefully for good. The hype train flew away a long time ago but wouldn’t it make the most sense for Wayne to have a great year.
Wayne should be a high usage guy, we should be using him to every advantage (NBA body, range on jumper). On a given night if he’s really improved, Wayne should have a matchup advantage over his opponent. Perfect example of utilizing matchups, that could be the difference maker all year.
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Sorry, we were both incorrect. Duke has 11 players on scholarship and 2 players that are not on scholarships this season that are likely getting one this season, like some players do at KU when scholarships ares available, They have two seniors leaving which will give them 4 available scholarships, assuming the two players go back to being non-scholarship players and they have 3 commits, so, unless someone else goes pro or transfers, they have only one scholarship available.
