Post Late Night musings
-
@Statmachine That’s a very good point. Diallo has to play and maintain his level of perceived draft position, or that would be two in a row. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but if Bragg is the better player, there is no way that Self should play Traylor over Bragg. No way. You’re right, though, that’s Self’s m.o.
On the broadcast last night, Self said Bragg was a Marcus Morris player. Morris was a freshman starter (due in large part to roster make-up), but Morris was better the first time he hit the floor than Traylor ever has been.
We saw Bragg in the WUG. He was clearly better than Traylor in those 8 games. Bragg - .209 points per min, .441 rebounds per minute, and .116 turnovers per minute vs. Traylor at .161 ppm, .112 rpm, and .177 tpm. Traylor had 2 blocks and 3 steals, and Bragg had goose eggs there. Both were appx. 80% from the line. The biggest difference was rebounding, and that is huge possession wise. Traylor played 62 minutes and had only 7 boards. Bragg played 43 minutes but had 19 rebounds.
If Bragg is Marcus Morris, as Self has said, or 80% of Morris, that’s better than Traylor. Morris’ first season he was .399 ppm, .256 rpm, .088 tpm. And Morris improved as his freshman season when on.
A better comparison might be Darrel Arthur as some here have mentioned before – he was .518 ppm, .245 rpm, and .077 tpm his freshman season.
Either way, better than Traylor whose junior season numbers were worse than the freshman numbers of Morris and Arthur in points and rebounds. Turnovers were basically a push – again, junior to freshmen.
This is that classic case where Self’s own words help demonstrate the point we all know to be true – all of us would rather go to battle with Bragg right now instead of Traylor. Any one disagree? Anyone here who would rather have Traylor on his team than Bragg for this season?
This sets the stage for discussions of irrationality, etc. , unless Self makes the right choice. Come on, Bill, just commit to the better player right now. It’s why you recruit good players. You don’t recruit a top 20 guy to sit behind unranked, low talent players. The goal is a national title. Who do you want in March and April? Traylor, or Bragg with a full season of big minutes under his belt. The choice is easy.
-
@HighEliteMajor Wholeheartedly agree. Its April and KU is in the Final Four, if Im picking my line up for the pending game, Im picking Bragg over Traylor provided he has the reps and minutes behind him.
-
Justin Wesley transferred in as a junior and played 8mpg his first season and then 3mpg the following season. I think Bam Bam should get the Justin Wesley treatment this year BUT I just don’t think HCBS will do it? I think HCBS should reward Taylor’s hard work but not to the detriment of the team. We all say we would play the Bragg but in reality we are not in Coach Self’s shoes. I would imagine it would be really difficult to play Bragg over Traylor after taking Traylor under your wing for 4 plus years. Bragg is not expected to be an OAD so there is no pressure to play him unless KU is losing games. There is also a lot of outside pressure for HCBS to play Svi a lot this year too. That will be another point of interest on how he manages minutes for the guards. His rotation composition will begin to factor in outside pressure if he is ever going to evolve as a recruiter. He can coach but he has also learned that if you can recruit you don’t have to coach (UK-Cal). I have been around the team and future recruits and talked to all of them through social media and found that there is indeed some outside influences that are pressuring HCBS to change his court side tactics to recruit top tier talent like other blue blood programs around the country. HCBS can and will evolve but how and when are still up in the air?
-
I have talked to next years recruiting class and found that PT is less of a factor these days than most people may think. Draft perception and projection is the real common factor (and winning of coarse) to these kids today. As long as they are maintaining their perceived draft projection they don’t necessarily care of how many minutes they play. If they are getting 20mpg and their draft status remains the same then they would be happy and content no matter the school BUT if their draft stock drops their minutes better increase or there will be some back lash. To get a kid to commit early you have to go all in and tell the family’s of these guys that you will keep your end of the bargain and stay true to your word. I have only heard one kid say that HCBS gave that promise and that was Oubre. I don’t think he told Alexander the same thing BUT now that Alexander was on the front page of every news outlet as being lotto to bust the outside pressure for HCBS to go all in on these kids and their family has increased 10 fold. Change is coming sooner than you think.
-
@Statmachine if Self uses your approach, then he’s not rational. Hunter should start at beginning of season with Bragg off the bench as he progresses. Perhaps Diallo if eligible with those 4 (Perry included) splitting majority of minutes with Traylor/Lucas spot minutes.
Seldon is the starting 3 with combo of Svi/Greene backing up the combo of Seldon & Graham with Graham rotating Mason’s minutes at point.
-
@Bwag Absolutely, we gotta play our best guys. Period. This year is our year and Mr Traylor, as much as I like his story, has to take a back seat to that. Bragg is more complete than he is, right now. Right now. If I can see that then surely Bill can too. You play your best guys. Im sure Traylor will get his minutes but not to the detriment of the team and winning games.
-
@Statmachine Great comments on Traylor. An excellent post with lots of discussion points:
*“Justin Wesley transferred in as a junior and played 8mpg his first season and then 3mpg the following season. I think Bam Bam should get the Justin Wesley treatment this year BUT I just don’t think HCBS will do it? I think HCBS should reward Taylor’s hard work but not to the detriment of the team. We all say we would play the Bragg but in reality we are not in Coach Self’s shoes. I would imagine it would be really difficult to play Bragg over Traylor after taking Traylor under your wing for 4 plus years. Bragg is not expected to be an OAD so there is no pressure to play him unless KU is losing games. There is also a lot of outside pressure for HCBS to play Svi a lot this year too. That will be another point of interest on how he manages minutes for the guards. His rotation composition will begin to factor in outside pressure if he is ever going to evolve as a recruiter. He can coach but he has also learned that if you can recruit you don’t have to coach (UK-Cal). I have been around the team and future recruits and talked to all of them through social media and found that there is indeed some outside influences that are pressuring HCBS to change his court side tactics to recruit top tier talent like other blue blood programs around the country. HCBS can and will evolve but how and when are still up in the air?”
-
Traylor is better than Wesley. No doubt there. But there is no doubt that Diallo, Ellis, Bragg, and Mickelson are better. I think that Traylor does have a spot role on this team. One, for sure, is as a perimeter defender in certain late game situations, as Self used him in the WUG. He would also be good to bring in at times if our team is flat.
-
I am concerned by the idea that Self would somehow reward Traylor because he slept in a car, or has a compelling story. I certainly understand though, as a coach, how that might pull decisions away from cold, hard merit.
-
Traylor is now in his 5th season in the program. The thought that he will miraculously change from year four to five, when there has been little improvement in the prior years. That makes no sense. Could it happen? I guess, sure. But the percentage chance of significant improvement – to the level needed to justify his playing time – is highly unlikely.
-
The idea of “losing games” as our barometer on Traylor’s playing time is part of it. But why should we have to lose games to know what we already know? Personally, I’d start with Traylor as the last (6th) big. And then let him earn his playing time from there. That’s what his performance thus far has earned him.
-
Winning the national championship and contemplation of the best path toward that has to be the overriding factor in deciding playing time. My discomfort sometimes is that I question whether that is really the predominant thought. But that could come in a lot of different forms. I guess selfishly, I want to feel that Self is focused on that goal. I kind of want to hear him say it. That would at least make me feel like times when he plays certain guys it’s with a bigger picture in mind (I’ve said the word “feel” a couple of times – it’s so I sleep better at night). If Self feels that going all out to win the league is the best way to win a national championship in all cases, I would dispute that. Some seasons, with certain personnel, I’d agree. Seeding is important. But other seasons, getting certain players (usually younger guys) to arc upward in the performance late in the season is of the most importance. This would have been the case, in my opinion, in 2010-11, for example. Obviously not in 2011-12.
-
The concept of outside pressure as it relates to playing is interesting. It is clearly there. Self has been one coach that seems to not care a ton about it. But as @Statmachine mentioned, that could certainly affect recruiting. Diallo, Bragg, and Svi could further perhaps a somewhat unfair narrative. Unfair or not, it is a discussion point.
-
-
" I don’t think he told Alexander the same thing BUT now that Alexander was on the front page of every news outlet as being lotto to bust the outside pressure for HCBS to go all in on these kids and their family has increased 10 fold. Change is coming sooner than you think."
Up to now, I haven’t been one of those thinking Cliff’s situation harmed Kansas to any great amount. I am starting to wonder. Partially because we still have a goose egg on recruiting this next year when we have a hole in our post you could drive a 747 through.
In some ways, I hope you are right. Have I turned against my alma mater? No… but I have realized that we get the most out of Self when he gets pushed to the wall. Question is… do we have to suffer through a devastating recruiting year for him to hit that wall again?
-
Agree.
-
Agree… Heck… I know my share of homeless people. Where do they sign up to play for KU? Free ride?
-
Agree.
-
Agree.
-
Self will, first, set the team goals towards winning the league. That won’t change. But I do think he is keeping the big prize more in his mind (and hopefully in his coaching) during the regular season this time. He already has his troops thinking that way. Thinking of the big prize but first taking care of business… that is the mindset. We won’t know if we will see anything different during the season (at least, from our distant perspective) or not. I like how he mentioned our “last loss” during Late Night. Makes me wonder if he will finally coach in some “chip” I always talk about.
-
I don’t think Self thinks about outside pressure. I think he just tries to win games and plots on how to do so. Many of us sometimes clash with his strategy… but his overall winning % is excellent. But we do wish we could perform better in March, and also be more consistent in doing so. Guys will have to earn their minutes, and Self won’t be shy about telling them what he expects.
OTHER THINGS… Svi has definitely put on weight (muscle). It would be a tragedy for him to play the 3… he should play the 2. That will be prepare him for the NBA. Clearly, he is a guy that is being watched closely by NBA scouts. He looks like a perfect fit for SA. Try to imagine his NBA game after a few years with Coach Pop? What a combination!
I’m going out on a limb with this… but I don’t like the idea of Mason/Graham so much this year. Yes, it will reap rewards. And I am in favor of using it sometimes, just not all the time. Graham needs to start getting groomed for the PG position. Not only for his one year after Mason is gone, but for his future in basketball. Also… Mason will need a rest. If Self gets too aggressive with the Mason/Graham combo, it will take away some of Mason’s rest minutes. Also… playing both means risking both (more to injury). We simply will not advance in March if either one of these guys is out because of injury. I feel that strong about it. It killed us last year to lose Graham for a chunk of time and play a worn out Mason in March. There is no reason why Svi can’t quickly learn to help keep the pace up at the 2. He may not have the handles Graham has… but he sees the court probably better than anyone and can definitely create offense through the pass and through his basketball IQ. He should start becoming the next Manu Ginobili THIS YEAR!
The real problem we have with all our guys is the media hype. I know my thoughts run counter from mainstream. But the hype that surrounds our guys after a single performance in double-digits stating the kid will go to the league next year is by far THE MOST damaging current situation Kansas basketball is facing. That stuff works for schools like Duke and UK… who fill their bench with the very top elites. It did work with us with Wigs. Yes… he did the right thing by leaving. But most of our guys do not perform at this caliber and suffer big time hits when entering the league.
I wonder what would have happened if guys like TRob, X, Oubre, etc… would have stuck around until they were ready? What would our recruiting look like today?
-
-
@drgnslayr said:
I’m going out on a limb with this… but I don’t like the idea of Mason/Graham so much this year.
Why out on a limb? You’re not the only one worried about overusing the dynamic duo. As I said before, one of the two must be out there at all times. Play each one 30 minutes and that means each plays PG 10 minutes without the other, and they play together 20 minutes.
That’s half the game without the Mason/Graham combo.
You can’t build a team dynamic on something that will not be there half the game.
Play Mason 30, Graham 25 and Svi 25. Mix and match. Mason plays half his minutes with one and half with the other. When he is out, Svi and Graham together. That still gets you 15 minutes of Mason/Graham.
If you really think Mason/Graham is the best combo, play them at the beginning and end of each half - although I would rather choose based on matchups.
-
I’ve become a little worried after Late Night and Self’s comment about using them together a lot this year. Obviously, I’d like to see them get some minutes together, but just not overdone.
I just hope we use all the talent we do have. Svi can be a force this year but he has to get continual minutes or he’ll rust up like the tin man. Last year, he was put in the deep freeze.
-
@drgnslayr he put himself in the deep freeze. If he’s as good as reported he’ll play. Pretty hi expectations put on him, lets hope he lives up to them!
-
I just hope we use all the talent we do have. Svi can be a force this year but he has to get continual minutes or he’ll rust up like the tin man. Last year, he was put in the deep freeze.
Agreed, I don’t think that will be the issue this year. It will be crime if he’s not getting around 20 minutes a game especially early.
It’s going to come down to offense with Svi, can he shoot consistently & show more than just a jumper. We know he put in a lot of work to change his body & work on his game, hopefully that translates to game situations. Ideally if him & Graham can score in that 7-9pts pg area to compliment Wayne, Perry & Frank we stand a very good chance of scoring a lot more than last year.
-
At Late Night Self mentioned this team as having more depth than we’ve had for a long time.
I know he has to slim down minutes and go with a core crew of around 8… and I’m pretty sure Svi is in that group. But that will leave behind at least 2 guys that should still get some minutes (when possible) so they can still potentially produce late in the year… when we could have an injury or just need further depth down the stretch. Plus… other players offer differing skills and sometimes they just fit better in a situation.
I think this impacts recruiting, too. More the guys in the middle, but the level of player we often want for development and depth. Except for a walk-on, no one wants to come to Kansas and get put in the deep freeze for entire seasons. Talk about stinting someone’s potential…
-
Well the deep freeze scenario could impact 2 players we currently have. Vick & Bragg.
I might be higher on Vick that most but he’s likely to have a lost year if everyone is healthy. Do you red-shirt him? I say no, because if anyone in the perimeter gets hurt he will be needed.
Late Night shouldn’t be used as any kind of barometer but Vick had some silly turnovers that Bill was quick to point out. Between valuing the ball & defense I think Vick fails to see the court in any situation where the outcome of the game is in jeopardy. I’m really intrigued offensively by him because he just seems to have a knack for scoring which was a huge Achilles Heal of this team last year.
Then you have Bragg. It’s a longshot that Diallo will play this year but if there is a miracle and he does, Bragg has a chance to be handcuffed by any combination of the bigs on our team. Perry is locked in for at least 30 minutes, the 5 spot is probably a rotation of Diallo/Mickelson sprinkled in with Mari/Lucas.
Without Diallo Bragg has a great chance to start & play a lot of meaningful minutes. It’s probably the difference between hundreds of minutes over the course of the season. Looking forward to next year, a Soph Bragg who’s seen 15+ minutes a game & battled through Big 12 play/Tournament play vs a reserve role has huge implications on next years squad. I know we are playing for this years glory, but next years glory, Bragg is probably the key factor going in especially with how recruiting is going.
We could actually have too much depth, I think Self has to play 8 with consistent minutes, a 9th has to see the floor in most games, we will play too many teams who don’t play Self’s brand of ball & that will require situations for others to see the floor.
-
Bragg is a great example of what I’m talking about. Yes… if Diallo gets “legalized” we’ll have plenty of options with more experience than Bragg. However… Bragg is the only big (besides Perry) that has perimeter shooting skills. With Bragg and Ellis on the floor at the same time, the opposing bigs will be forced out away from the basket. Typically, that creates a plethora of offensive options…
And if Bragg gets put on ice… what does that say to the recruits considering Kansas? Plenty!
-
And if Bragg gets put on ice… what does that say to the recruits considering Kansas? Plenty!
You are so right.
If Bragg were benched in favor of highly ranked and successful upperclassmen, that would be one thing.
If he’s benched in favor of our pedestrian bigs, then the message is pretty dadgum negative.
-
I might redshirt Vick – redshirts can be pulled at any time. But I think this is dictated by Greene’s health, and Vick’s desire or likelihood to play four seasons. The only reason to redshirt a player is if he will stay for his final season. If Vick isn’t a four year guy, the redshirt doesn’t make sense. He seems like a likely four year player.
I don’t recall who mentioned it, but why redshirt if this is a NC year? Gotta have all guns available at all times. That’s a good argument against redshirt.
-
@HighEliteMajor said:
I don’t recall who mentioned it, but why redshirt if this is a NC year?
I mentioned that, with respect to Greene who has already shown what he can do.
-
@ParisHawk Same logic apply to Vick? I would think so but you had the thought, what do you think?
-
@ParisHawk I agree 100%. Bragg should play in front of upperclassmen who are less talented. That said, I am ready to pull my hair out all year watching Bam Bam and Lucas play big minutes while Bill says that Bragg is “Adjusting to the speed of the game” or some other ridiculous reason. I am about as big of a Self apologist as there is but the thought of another year of Lucas / Traylor playing in front of top shelf freshman makes me want to jump off of a bridge. I can’t even say the recruiting part bothers me (although it should). It is really the thought that a kid like Bragg playing through mistakes will be the guy we want in March. Not Bam Bam. Not Lucas. I am not convinced that either of those guys will ever be good.
-
@HighEliteMajor said:
@ParisHawk Same logic apply to Vick? I would think so but you had the thought, what do you think?
Thanks for asking. Using your gun metaphor I would want to pack every gun I’ve used in battle, but might leave behind a gun I’d only fired on the practice range.
A part of Self thinks he’s the one shooting and the kids are his weapons. He wants the grip to feel comfortable in his hand.
I’m more worried about the Royce Woolridge syndrome: Self asks a freshman to redshirt and the freshman says “I’m not planning to stay 5 years”, and sooner or later he’s gone.
-
The conversation has focused on our biggest recruiting hurdle since Self arrived in Lawrence.
After the Tarc debacle Self mentioned he would adjust his recruiting tactics. We are all pretty sure that one of those addressed his past attitude of freshmen having to earn their spots over more-seasoned players, even if they were elites. Self even went as far as almost promising Oubre minutes. But the reality of what happened is very different.
This is where we get hammered in recruiting.
Most people are focusing on Cliff’s disastrous year as the excuse for us lagging behind this year in recruiting.
I challenge this.
I tend to think it was the delay in giving minutes to Kelly that had the bigger impact. He did pan out his freshman year and is gone. Might he have gone higher in the draft had he played from Day 1 in Lawrence? I think that is a question opposing recruiters are asking recruits that are considering Kansas.
Our “formula” of mixing long-stay players with OAD-types requires care. It does require freshmen (even elites) to earn their PT and not be given lots of extra leeway… however… there must be a show of good faith that an elite recruit will pay off eventually when our coach shows a bit of patience.
I still think our recruiting suffers from Self showing freshmen the fast hook. It isn’t hard sifting through vintage video footage to find a plethora of examples.
-
@drgnslayr I would have given oubre the hook during the WSU game, not hustling!
-
This is Braggs face when asked to sit on the bench and watch all of the other bigs play this year!
-
ESPN owns the SEC basketball network.
ESPN needs Cal in the Final Four.
ESPN and Cal
Kay, eye, s, s, eye, n,Geeeeee
-
It’s like there is a sun halo around his head! I am very excited to watch him mature as a Jayhawk. I hope he stays with us for a long time!
-
@drgnslayr or angel
-
I know he’s a nice guy… but I hope he isn’t THAT nice! He has to be able to get down in the lane trenches and fight for everything.
-
@drgnslayr yeah!
-
We know its something that’s holding recruiting back. We’ve talked about Perception being a key factor. It’s got to be what these kids are looking at KU and seeing something negative.
-
And is it really negative? (that a player has to actually EARN his PT?)
I do understand (at least I think I do) Self and his desire to recruit players that are not only talented, but have a down-to-earth mentality (humility).
-
I juts don’t see a problem…yet. 10 of the top 20 player have not signed and, of the players that have signed, some are going to programs such as NC State, Florida State, Alabama, Washington, Villanova, not necessarily power house programs.
Unfortunately we are in the age of instant gratification and top players want to go to programs where they will get lots of playing time and where they will be the big fish in the big pond, even when most are not ready. Their percepti0n of their skills and reality sometimes are worlds apart.
Also, the latest conference ranking have the Big 12 as the toughest conference from top to bottom…do you think that some recruits choose to go a -bigger but not as tough- conference with its own network and bigger audience such as the Big 10? Michigan State seems to be doing well with the upcoming class, while KU which will have several games blacked out is not? Just a thought…
-
Sure 10 of the top 20 have not signed, 4 of them are not even considering KU. That leaves 6…7 if you include Azubuike.
So we threw our hat in for Giles (Duke lean), Fox (Kentucky Lean), Monk (Kentucky or Arkansas lean), Jackson (Arizona or Michigan St lean), Bolden (Duke lean).
All these guys have ties to the respective programs they are considered leans to end up at. Bolden seems content on being the 5th wheel at Duke (mom wants him to Duke) instead of the big fish in KU. Giles wants to play with Tatum and company. Monk & Fox will feel the UK pressure to play on the big stage, Jackson is the most wide open but he really opened up about Michigan St’s recent success.
Jarrett Allen has been to Notre Dame- we made the top 8 and have been working on him. No visit scheduled.
Azubuike visited, also went to Florida, NC St & FSU recently . No idea where his recruitment is going, does FSU hold the cards still, will he go from Nike to Adidas? Will he leave the southeast?
At this point Allen & Azubuike are the only guys that seem to be wide-open & generally interested in KU at this time. Who knows that could be incorrect as well.
Things can change quickly, they usually do & Self usually comes through. I’m not saying he won’t but this doesn’t look like a normal year the way its going. We have spots to fill, at least 3 could be as high as 5. How are kids not interested in that fact?? Something is up
-
@BeddieKU23 Bolden’s comments post Late Night sound like he’s back to being a KU lean and is talking about not even taking his UK and Duke visits.
-
@BeddieKU23 is exactly right. We aren’t really in on many of these.
Really, the silence from Lawrence is deafening. Gone now is the age of commitments in the week following Late Night it appears.
Here are more stark numbers.
10 of the top 20 have not signed or committed.
However, only 18 of the top 60 remain unsigned - that means only 8 of the next 40 (between 21 and 60) are available.
Of the top 100, only 29 are available (or 19 of the next 80, who are outside the top 20).
But as @JayHawkFanToo said, it’s not a problem … “yet.”
It’s how your class ends. But it is certainly disconcerting.
By the way, TJ Leaf cut us from his list today – #13 player.
All is right in the world if we sign Bolden. I like the positive stuff @Texas-Hawk-10 mentioned. Cross our fingers. Bolden is the man.
-
There’s a few ways to look at earning PT.
We know Self values seniority, experience, trust, defense, hustle, understanding of the system. The List goes on and on…
It makes it darn near impossible for a freshman to check all those boxes most years. Some have come here & exceeded or played to the talent they were hyped to be. Some have disappointed, that’s going to happen everywhere, at every school.
If we look at just last year, the perception could say that Self failed to showcase Cliff & Kelly for the NBA. Kelly still went high but it could have been lottery had he not struggled in Self’s eyes to get on the floor. Self has to evolve if he gets these top kids, we are just the pit-stop you don’t hurt the merchandise. Mold them if you can but be gentle because they have more power than you think, especially in recruiting…
-
I had not seen Bolden’s comments until you posted that so thank you. We will have to wait to see if he makes trips to Duke’s & Kentucky’s Late Night festivities. It would definitely be an advantage for us if he doesn’t go anywhere else.
-
@BeddieKU23 said:
We know Self values seniority, experience, trust, defense, hustle, understanding of the system. The List goes on and on…
Yes, indeed. But if in addition Self values intangibles over tangible results (see Cliff) and that helps the presumed OAD drop out of the draft (see Cliff), then recruits are going to hear: “at KU, you don’t play even if you’re better!”.
Again, it’s not just the preference for upperclassmen that is the problem: it’s the preference for pedestrian upperclassmen over non-pedestrian freshmen.
How can that not be used against Self in recruiting? An opposing coach who doesn’t play that card is simply not doing his job.
-
@ParisHawk Good points. It is certainly interesting as Bill has played mediocre talent in front of super high recruits (Oubre / Alexander) but he has also gone with certain freshman from the first tip and let them play through mistakes. Wiggins, Selden and BMac come to mind. These guys were given the greens light without going through any of Bill’s doghouses, deep freezes, mental toughening running on treamill drills. Are these examples just players who are that talented from day 1?
Fully agree that coaches all over the country are saying “Look what KU did with Selby, Oubre, Alexander…”. I guess it is Bill’s job to say “Look what KU did with Wiggins, B Mac, T Rob, Morris Twins…”
-
@joeloveshawks I’m being a Negative Nancy here, but what did KU do with Wiggins? He went from potential to results in the pros, not at KU.
Embiid would be the story if he weren’t hurt.
KU has had success with the multi-year players, not so much the presumed OADs.
Why aren’t the guys rated 20 through 50 on their knees begging to come here? They could have dorms as insane as the UK OADs and work their way up to lottery status. SMH…
-
@ParisHawk Truth is, we didn’t do much for Wigs, but honestly, that was job number 1: Do no harm. Most of the OADs that come through any program aren’t coming out significantly better than they came in. The biggest challenge in handling those kids is not turning them into draft duds. Despite the two big black eyes we’ve had with OADs, we aren’t the only program to fail to make hay with top 10 players. Even Cal, the poster child for OAD basketball, has had several let downs, especially recently.
The fact remains, though, that Cliff’s situation has hurt us on the recruiting trail the same way Selby’s did. And like with Selby, what should be a big and relatively painless recruiting haul has turned into an uphill battle. The best way to right the ship will be to improve Diallo’s stock if he’s eligible. If he’s ruled a partial qualifier, that still gives us the chance to improve Diallo and take credit (though that could totally torpedo NC hopes for this season, unless Mickelson can really be a starting calibler big).
As for why we aren’t killing it with the 20-50 guys, I think there’s two things:
-
Self is overconfident in his recruiting. He clearly sees himself as on par with Cal, K, and W, but the fact of the matter is, although he does recruit very well, he’s not quite at their level (although Roy has slipped a little lately). I can’t imagine why we’re spending the time and money on a guy like Giles, who has next to no chance to pay off, when a kid like DeRon Davis is a state away, has great potential, and would give us the opportunity for another Robinson/Morri-esque quill in our collective cap.
-
Self is a really good recruiter. And although that seems counter to what I’m saying above, Self does get a good share of elite talent, and those top 20-50 guys aren’t going to want to throw in with KU if they’re going to get buried on the bench. That’s why this year should be relatively easy. We have tons of minutes opening up and a post guy in that range should get the opportunity to establish himself early and not have the next big thing play over him. But Self needs to make those guys a priority. Right now we appear to be doing that with Herard, and I think it’s going to pay off from the way things sound. He’s not visiting Cal anymore, and they were in his final 5. He wants to take a final visit, but the way his handler is talking, it’s just because he grew up poor and is basking in the luxury while he has it. We’ll see, though.
-
-
@ParisHawk What Self did with Wiggins was vastly underutilize his talent.
As usual, system is the culprit. I love this quote for a scout near the time of the 2014 draft about Wiggins, “In general, interesting kid. In fairness to him he played in a very restricted system at Kansas. All interchangeable parts with designated spots, a lot of structure. When he got the ball, there wasn’t a lot of room to create.”
Exactly. We underutilized his talent.
I did watch some NBA last season. And amazingly, the T-Wolves actually posted up Wiggins on the low block when he had an advantage over an opponent.
Imagine that, exploiting match ups.
This is one of my huge issues with Self’s approach. A large portion of the basketball universe finds ways to exploit matchups. But Self just doesn’t – or more precisely, it is subservient to system. We had Wiggins for an entire season, with many times inferior defenders guarding him. How many times did we post him up?
And it isn’t complex. It isn’t difficult. It isn’t out of the ordinary.
-
@HighEliteMajor So should we post up Svi? I’ve been waiting for an opening to ask that question…
-
@ParisHawk I think we should seek to post up players who have an advantage down low. My caveat is if a player simply can’t score in the post. Meaning, if a smaller guy doesn’t have much ability to score down low, and for whatever reason shows he can’t do that reasonably well, then skip it. But if Svi is at the 2, matched with a 6’2" guard, and Svi is reasonably competent in the post, why not slide him there a few times per game? If he’s successful, you do it until it’s stopped. Once stopped, that means an adjustment by the opposition, of which you can seek to exploit.
One thing about posting up guards – they can pass well, and create from that spot just as they can otherwise.
Posting a player up is just one example. It could be isolating for a drive, or playing a two man game on the wing. Just taking advantage of each player’s skills when possible, and to exploit weaknesses in match ups more.
-
I really like how you mentioned exploiting match ups. That is something we simply do not do. I thought we would pick up some things from the Mayor when he was around. He sure made it look easy with all of his juco transfers…
“What Self did with Wiggins was vastly underutilize his talent.”
I think I would change the word “talent” with “potential.” Wigs talent in HS was mostly pure athleticism. He didn’t possess great handles, and (for the most part) only had his spin move.
What I believe we should have done was have someone work with Wigs to develop a few main moves. Like… how about a pull-up jumper? But, instead, Wigs was told to always take it to the rack. Okay… he got fouled often. But he made almost zero finishes at the rack. Why? Because he grew fearful of getting bashed and potentially injured. Just teaching him how to locate his spots on the floor and to create a drive move and pull-up is like teaching a fastball pitcher his second pitch… a breaking ball. Suddenly, the pitcher advances past AA ball and hits the majors and is vying for the Cy Young award!
Just teaching him a pull-up would have made him so much more effective and given him confidence. He would have handled the rock much better because he would then have options instead of just brute forcing it at the rim.
How hard could that have been to teach? Really?
-
Based on the latest news, I see Bolden as a KU lean and not Duke. Keep in mind that Duke has only two senior on the roster and they have already signed 3 players, which means at least one underclassman will have to leave, transfer or go off scholarship, assuming they do not sign anyone else. Sure they can sign two more players such Giles and Bolden but that means 3 returning players lose their scholarship…that is a lot and would not reflect well on the program. If I were a betting man, I would guess that Duke gets at most maybe one more player or none.
-
@drgnslayr A pull-up jump shot generally results in a shot of about 15 to 18 feet. I thought that there was general agreement among the cognoscenti here that this is the worst shot imaginable. All we should be shooting are threes or layups. It is absolutely amazing that what is popular here one day is shizz the next and vice-versa.
-
I meant pull-up off the drive. That could be anywhere from about 8 to 15-feet.
I don’t think it is reality to say we are only going for dunks (layups) and treys. Just not realistic, and before long, neither layup or trey will come easy because teams will give up on everything else to defend the trey and the rim.
How many layups or stuffs did Wigs make at KU? How many did he miss? I venture to say he would have batted a much higher average had he done more than take it to the rack. Other teams learned they could just pinch him near the rim and make him ineffective.
I look at Wigs and I see a young Kobe Bryant. A guy that brought his drive to the league, and within a few years went from an inside game to a perimeter game. A huge part of his success was learning to score in mid-range.
-
@sfbahawk I think it’s amazing we sign anybody!
-
They only have 10 scholarship players, so I believe that gives them 3 spots if they choose to use them along with the 2 Sr’s…
Ingram is a OAD, as long as he does okay. I posted in the other thread about Bolden. Allen, Thornton & Jeter could all flirt with the NBA depending on how the year goes.
They definitely seem to be recruiting like they have an infinite amount of spots to give.
