2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 I really hadn’t paid attention to them. I just see the Kenpom stuff and can’t help but see that Marquette team stick out…
I’ll have to make a point to watch a Marquette game before March.
Yeah same I need to catch some of their games. #1 offense with that roster is something. At least in recent games it’s not if they are scoring 90 every night but shooting 50% as a team is really good. If KU was shooting close to 50% as a team they have 1-2 losses tops. I wonder if they can sustain it.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
I’m perfectly fine with how Self is attacking recruiting and roster management these days, avoiding the sure-fire 1-year HS guys and targeting those guys likely to stick around a few years. We know what works here and what doesn’t. I mean he’s had success with 1-year dudes too but it’s just not his bread and butter.
Self might be a hard coach to play for but I’ve yet to really hear of a player that didn’t benefit from his coaching. In fact, the opposite tends to happen.
We used to worry so much about Duke or UK’s recruiting classes and now it’s like why bother, those teams aren’t winning anything with freshman. The transfer portal completely leveled the playing field and made experienced players more valuable. Guys from lower levels are not at a disadvantage anymore it seems when leveling up. Things have changed so fast
I’d pause to say Self has completely avoided the OAD’s. When the Rice recruitment started, we didn’t know if he’d ever make it to Lawrence and Gradey Dick was also a projected 1st round pick for quite awhile before he committed, but he’s also a local kid who wanted to play here so that may be an exception.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@Kcmatt7 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 I really hadn’t paid attention to them. I just see the Kenpom stuff and can’t help but see that Marquette team stick out…
I’ll have to make a point to watch a Marquette game before March.
Yeah same I need to catch some of their games. #1 offense with that roster is something. At least in recent games it’s not if they are scoring 90 every night but shooting 50% as a team is really good. If KU was shooting close to 50% as a team they have 1-2 losses tops. I wonder if they can sustain it.
They blitzed Baylor. Barely lost at Purdue. Have losses to good teams and some really nice wins. Shaka’s best team ever. They’re on FS1 at 1pm tomorrow.
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@Jethro Are you being snarky or just forgot that Shaka don’t coach there anymore?
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@wissox said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@Jethro Are you being snarky or just forgot that Shaka don’t coach there anymore?
I was talking about Marquette.
Here is the comment I was replying to:
“Yeah same I need to catch some of their games. #1 offense with that roster is something. At least in recent games it’s not if they are scoring 90 every night but shooting 50% as a team is really good. If KU was shooting close to 50% as a team they have 1-2 losses tops. I wonder if they can sustain it.”
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Updated post huge win against Tejas.
Points-
Jalen moved up 1 spot to 36th all-time passing Steve Woodberry. Jerod Haase is now in Jalen’s sights after an off game against Texas, needs 16 points Saturday to move into 35th place. Eric Chenowith & Jo Jo White are next up.
Kenpom, Torvik-
Bracket Matrix-
Still has us a #1 seed
PER-
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Did we really drop in the Kenpom rankings after a win vs. the #10 team?
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I didn’t even look or capture the results from Saturday, I just couldn’t bring myself to do it.
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They are 11th on KenPom as of this morning. I am 99% sure that is what they were before the game as well. So no movement.
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Pretty crazy to win against a top 10 team when your best player plays his worst game of the season. BPMs were wild last night. Never a good stat for one game but it does tell the story of the game. I don’t think Joe’s success is sustainable but I think most of use would be happy with around half of that consistently.
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@BShark The production isn’t necessarily stable but the energy should be.
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@benshawks08 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BShark The production isn’t necessarily stable but the energy should be.
Think it was a big factor for Joe and MJ knowing they would get real minutes by default.
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@BShark Totally agree. Both were clearly READY.
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Creighton has won 7 in a row to go from 9-8 to 16-8 and is now up to 12th on Kenpom.
Really unfortunate that we missed out on Scheierman. Would have been the perfect fit for this season imo. Rebounding, shooting, passing, etc. Guy does it all.
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Anyone know why West Virginia is so high on KenPom? I know its computers and formulas and what not, but like how does that happen? 15???
Also, @Kcmatt7 I see them at #9 right now and WE are 12th.
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Going back to the preseason they have been in the hype mix. Fell off and coming back in. Shrug.
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With our victory last night, our record against Quad 1 opponents goes to 12-5, which is the most wins against Quad 1 opponents in the nation. 2nd place ( Texas) has 10. Quad 1 & 2 record: 15-5. We are the only Div 1 team that has zero losses to unranked teams.
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@Jethro said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
With our victory last night, our record against Quad 1 opponents goes to 12-5, which is the most wins against Quad 1 opponents in the nation. 2nd place ( Texas) has 10. Quad 1 & 2 record: 15-5. We are the only Div 1 team that has zero losses to unranked teams.
Here’s to hoping Okie St doesn’t get ranked on Monday!
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Why not? Another W against a ranked team doesn’t hurt.
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Updated for the big OU win!
Points-
Jalen now sits in #35th place all-time on the scoring list. He can realistically pass Eric Chenowith & Jo-Jo White on Tuesday night.
Kenpom, Torvik-
Bracket Matrix, Sagarin, Massey-
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FYI Kenpom currently rates this as the 16th best team in the Self era.
If we look at prior teams around this one (3 above, 3 below), you have everything from a 1st round exit to a Final 4.
Also will mention, 3 of those 4 teams below this group did not win the league.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
FYI Kenpom currently rates this as the 16th best team in the Self era.
If we look at prior teams around this one (3 above, 3 below), you have everything from a 1st round exit to a Final 4.
Also will mention, 3 of those 4 teams below this group did not win the league.
I do think this team is pretty gritty. You definitely have to kill them and I would expect max effort in any tournament game.
Talent wise that does feel about right.
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No doubt this is a gritty bunch and with the schedule they have played, it’s negatively impacted their rating to some degree because every game has been so difficult for them to play well (which then reflects in the numbers).
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Updates are always fun after big wins!
Points-
Jalen is tied for 34th all-time now with 1,281 points. He will pass Jo Jo White on Saturday for 33rd.
He is currently 35 points away from going into 32nd place, 62 pts away from passing Mario Chalmers for 31st & 91 points away from passing Marcus Morris for 30th all-time. Jalen will most likely finish somewhere in the 20-30 range. His current avg has him on pace for 28th all time without accounting for extra games in the Big-12 tourney & NCAA’s.
Kenpom-
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Crazy B12 stat of the day: the B12 has 10 non Quad 1 losses TOTAL ( Yes, I verified it). B10 - 41. Big East - 46. SEC - 54. ACC - 100+.
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Up to 7th! Top 15 off and d. WOW!
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https://barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php?team=Kansas&year=2023
Torvik team comps are not flattering for tournament success. Self is a wizard but also college basketball is pretty down.
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@BShark Doesn’t look too flattering to anyone. I don’t see anyone projected to snag even 3 wins
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@dylans said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BShark Doesn’t look too flattering to anyone. I don’t see anyone projected to snag even 3 wins
I think this team gets to the 2nd weekend but it is some interesting perspective. One of these teams (2018 PSU) missed the tournament entirely. Bill navigating this to a 1 or 2 seed is insane. I will also add Udeh playing more could change the calculus.
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Right now, Kenpom’s 12th ranked team in the Self era. The teams closest to that all won the Big-12. Tourney- 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Right now, Kenpom’s 12th ranked team in the Self era. The teams closest to that all won the Big-12. Tourney- 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances.
Definitely on an upswing. Feels like earlier on this team was closer to the worst teams of the Self era.
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@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Right now, Kenpom’s 12th ranked team in the Self era. The teams closest to that all won the Big-12. Tourney- 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances.
Definitely on an upswing. Feels like earlier on this team was closer to the worst teams of the Self era.
TBH their numbers are still a bit behind where I think this team is. The last 4 games have shown that.
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UPDATE- BAYLOR WIN
Points-
Jalen is now in 33rd place passing Jo Jo White. Tonight he can pass Walter Wesley for 32nd place with 14 points.
Kenpom, Torvik
Bracket Matrix, Sagarin, Massey
PER
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Right now, Kenpom’s 12th ranked team in the Self era. The teams closest to that all won the Big-12. Tourney- 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four appearances.
Definitely on an upswing. Feels like earlier on this team was closer to the worst teams of the Self era.
TBH their numbers are still a bit behind where I think this team is. The last 4 games have shown that.
Yea what a weird squad this year. At times, they could beat anyone in the country by 20. At other times, it feels like they could lose in the 2nd round.
I really don’t know what this team’s kryptonite is other than playing a team with some athletic wings (think Timmy Allen). I’m a little worried about facing another dominant big man, but I also think that KJ’s ability and Udeh’s development makes me not nearly as worried about that.
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Yeah I have no idea what our kryptonite is either.
I want to say Athletic guards that can create 1 vs 1 & facing good rebounding teams.
I think we’ve seen we can negate an inside size advantage now with the presence of Udeh. We also have had success limiting guys like Jackon-Davis etc as well.
At the end of the day I think this team sinks and swims with Dejuan Harris’s offense and defense. He’s a total game changer when aggressive on both ends.
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I think health is the kryptonite. We now have 7-8 pieces in place. If they can all be at 100% in the tourney, sweet 16 is the floor. We don’t have any bad losses. We can and will beat teams that are not on our level.
My concern would be if the starters get worn down significantly or straight up injured we could get mediocre real fast. That’s how we lose in the first weekend. Severe fatigue or injury.
Harris and Kev have me most worried because they’ve been “knicked up” and “getting treatment” fairly regularly this last month.
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Honestly, winning out (would need a big win tonight) the regular season probably guarantees us a #1 seed.
Wouldn’t hurt my feelings if Bill rested some guys in the Conference Tourney after that. Bill did that with Dave last year, only played 10 minutes in game 1, 13 minutes in game 2, and then played the championship fully.
Bobby, Joe and Rice get a lot of run in the conference tourney if that #1 seed is locked up makes a lot of sense to me. Rest Kev and Juan.
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I worry that cold shooting is our kryptonite (though we’ve won plenty of games this season despite significant stretches of minutes with a lid on the bucket, and even though we’re a hell of a shooting team). It’s just that cold shooting at the wrong time deflates us - drains our Mojo, as @drgnslayr might say it - and brings out this team’s first-half-Baylor energy, the Dr. Jekyll to our 2nd-half-Baylor Mr. Hyde. Also…the right combination of foul probz has done/could do something similar - Juan and Jalen on the bench for long.
But maybe this is all just sayin’ bad luck is our kryptonite.
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I honestly believe the fellas are their own kryptonite. Mentally. It’s all mental. I had a rec league team(yes I know there is no comparison) but hear me out. They would play sluggish, slow, and very uninspired unless I sent them out there to press, press ,press. Then they got energized and it mentally made everything they did just that much quicker and easier. This team. Defensive mentality sparks it all. Get out there and just heckle the hell out of the ball and it just intensifies everything they can do. Without it we look steps(yes plural) slow, uninspired, and frankly not very talented. They must take a defensive (they don’t score, they don’t get the rebound) mindset into the game. Then they look like and could very possibly be National Champions. Might be damn fun to watch. Stay tuned
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UPDATE. GRITTY WIN ON THE ROAD
Points-
Jalen’s off game keeps him in 33rd place 7 points off 32nd place.
Kevin approaching 1,000 points for his career with 970. While he didn’t earn a bulk of his points here, he’s a Jayhawk forever. That dude bleeds here.
KENPOM-
Now a Top 10 defense, finally catching on Ken. Their D is better then 9th too FYI.
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Gradey is currently 8th all time for points in a FR season at KU. Will pass Rush and Dotson in the regular season barring a disaster. A chance to end up 4th behind Wiggs/BMac/Josh depending on tournament runs.
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@BShark it’s interesting from the standpoint that I think this team would mop the floor with 19 team no question. The 2019 doesn’t make the NCAA tournament with anyone but BS coaching it. Feel the same way about the 2021 team. I used to be big on these metrics and stats but you can never predict anything with them IMO. TCU shooting insane in AFH is the prime example.
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@kjayhawks That 2021 team was so bad I became apathetic towards basketball that season. We got robbed of at least a final four by covid in 2020 then in 2021 just a horrible team limited on talent and never seemed to get what it took. So thankful for the 2022 team. 2021 was a dark time.
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I don’t know. That 18-19 team with a healthy Doke could have made noise. Then you had the Vick drama to go with it. The talent was there to be good.
The 2021 team was BAD.
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That 21 team seemed to be the fuel for 22 though according to that Ochai/Mitch/Teehan podcast they did. Sometimes sacrifices are made for the greater good
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The 21 team is undoubtedly Self’s worst here. The only one to not finish top 25 kenpom. I agree a lot of coaches would miss the tournament with that roster. Were they expecting Dotson back??! It was baffling to not have a PG.
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@BShark I honestly think they were and as much as I like Dot he made a huge mistake leaving early. Guys that are projected first rounders I have zero problem with going. But Dot went undrafted and has played in only 28 games this far in the NBA averaging less than 7 minutes in those 28 games. He’s been bouncing around the G-league for 3 years. I don’t think he ever would’ve been lottery with his size but could’ve seen him going late first round/early second if he stayed another year to work on his shot.
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@Kcmatt7 2019 could’ve been good as you said with Vick and Doke healthy but they weren’t so I see the team as without them.
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Some more Stats. Who doesn’t like Stats. Stats! Stats!
KU has 2 remaining home games. Under Coach Self, KU is 38-0 in the final 2 home games of the season. Pretty good win record for the next two!
KU in conference play- leading the Big-12 in 2 pt field goal defense and 2nd in defensive rebounding.
Baylor’s defense is currently the worst defense in the Big-12 in the last 4 years. Keep doing what you’re doing Scottie.
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