It's About To Go Down
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There’s only one way to stop a mad dictator hellbent on world domination. Sanctions ain’t it, I’m afraid.
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@BShark said in It's About To Go Down:
https://twitter.com/mctait/status/1496935849082109953
SVI
Going to be tough to get them out. Flights are grounded and the country is surrounded. Hopefully they can find a way.
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@tis4tim said in It's About To Go Down:
There’s only one way to stop a mad dictator hellbent on world domination. Sanctions ain’t it, I’m afraid.
They don’t hurt. Soldiers need paid and fed. The public needs functioning institutions. Tough to keep up an occupation when the power grid at home is failing. I don’t think Putin wants war with the west at all. It’s an absolute sure loser, and likely fatal for him and his regime. No doubt he wants to dominate a pan-Slavic sphere, but no way he wants to tangle with OG NATO. The Russian economy, in terms of GDP/Capita, is down 50% from its high a decade ago. Its population is also decreasing. Russia is a fading power and Putin knows it. This is the last gasp of a (literally) dying empire.
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Russia’s (non) response to Covid has weakened Putin some domestically. I don’t think he understands the appetite for yet more death among Russians. https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1496950238183149572?s=20&t=HD_MMIINo3ag9Liah7XHVg
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https://twitter.com/sviat_10/status/1496972690623807492?s=12
From Svi! His parents are still there
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@FarmerJayhawk said in It's About To Go Down:
They don’t hurt. Soldiers need paid and fed. The public needs functioning institutions. Tough to keep up an occupation when the power grid at home is failing. I don’t think Putin wants war with the west at all. It’s an absolute sure loser, and likely fatal for him and his regime. No doubt he wants to dominate a pan-Slavic sphere, but no way he wants to tangle with OG NATO. The Russian economy, in terms of GDP/Capita, is down 50% from its high a decade ago. Its population is also decreasing. Russia is a fading power and Putin knows it. This is the last gasp of a (literally) dying empire.
Since you’re a policy guy I hear you and I respect what you’re saying. Sanctions are a definite first response. But, they have to be swift (no pun intended) and debilitating to have any effect. So far, Russia’s three biggest banks are scoffing at the sanctions imposed upon them.
If Putin is desperate as you suggest, and senses he is vulnerable, he is libel to do about anything to hold onto power, including attacking the West. Megalomaniacs are irrational in that way. Hitler did the same in WWII, opening up a war on 2 fronts thinking he was invincible.
The difference, as I see it, is that we as a country are weaker than we were in WWII and in a much more compromised position. We are not energy independent, we don’t manufacture much anything here anymore and our supply chain is heavily controlled by China, another bully who is now cheering on Russia and is emboldened even further to take over Taiwan. I’m also not sure our populous has any chutzpah to stand up to a bully. Frankly, there are many in this country that would love to rosin up the fiddle while watching us go down in flames for a variety of reasons.
Power hungry bullies only understand force. If the world is truly upset with what is currently transpiring, then the world needs to see to it that Putin is slapped down hard and/or taken out entirely. The ones that will inevitably suffer under sanctions are the innocents.
First attack by a large country on a sovereign nation in 80 years. I guess it’s time to see who is all talk and who is action.
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@tis4tim said in It's About To Go Down:
First attack by a large country on a sovereign nation in 80 years.
Whole lot of forgetting going on. Iraq (twice), anyone? Afghanistan in the 70s by Soviets and 2002 by US?
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@mayjay said in It's About To Go Down:
@tis4tim said in It's About To Go Down:
First attack by a large country on a sovereign nation in 80 years.
Whole lot of forgetting going on. Iraq (twice), anyone? Afghanistan in the 70s by Soviets and 2002 by US?
Russia against Ukraine 8 years ago!
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@mayjay said in It's About To Go Down:
Whole lot of forgetting going on. Iraq (twice), anyone? Afghanistan in the 70s by Soviets and 2002 by US?
“[Vladimir] Putin’s Ukraine invasion is the first time in 80 years that a great power has moved to conquer a sovereign nation.”
Not the first time I’ve read something to this effect today from numerous journalistic sources. Maybe the word “conquer” is the operative word here. I don’t think we were trying to take over Iraq or Afghanistan when we sent troops. So, I should have been more clear in my statement. Thanks for the correction.
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Does anyone know of Svi’s family is still in Ukraine or did they ever immigrate out of Ukraine?
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@Texas-Hawk-10 they are still there, couldn’t get out in time
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There is an article in KUSports today in which Svi has been quoted in that he is trying to get his parents out as quickly as possible.
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@mayjay Well, we have to protect “democracy” and suffer economic misery here so we can save a country that has jailed the leaders of the opposing political party. Mitch is walking around with his first boner in years, and I could swear I saw blood dripping from Nancy’s mouth as she breathlessly explained about “democracy” and all that stuff.
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@Jethro Yeah, we should support Russia instead and keep our economy strong!
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@mayjay I want peace, so I must be for Russia. Ok. Well, I guess calling me a Russian bot is better than the time you called me a racist. Just wait until you see what it does to the economy. I will remind you, I promise. I know it won’t affect fat cats like you, but for the working man, 6.00 a gallon for gas is going to be devastating.
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We may feel a pinch here and big oil is happy with that. The real impact will be in Europe who trade more extensively with Mother Russia. Italy is already squirming because they sell a lot of super cars to the Russki’s. The EU has been lax and depends on Russia for natural gas. The only thing we can currently do is what we and the EU are already doing and supply the Ukrainians with weapons. Stop buying Belarus agriculture equipment by freezing imports. China will play both sides most likely until Walmart cuts them off. No simple answers but praising Putin and taking this opportunity to slap at our CIC looks pretty weak.
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Putin wants to reform the Soviet Union. His comments over recent years make that pretty clear.
Putin’s still pissed about Russian ally Yanukovych being booted out of power in Ukraine in 2014 and pissed that a former close ally nation has been getting friendlier with the EU and NATO. Putin claims that NATO said about 30 years ago they wouldn’t expand membership and that he want NATO to return to its pre 1997 membership. Since 1997, there have been 14 new members almost doubling the number of NATO members and all 14 members are former Soviet controlled lands.
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The Germans look BIG DUMB for shutting down their nuclear capacity.
@Jethro the only person who wants war is Putin. The question is what we do about it. Do we allow Putin to take what he wants, when he wants, committing mass murder? In my judgment, no. Now does that mean American troops in Ukraine? No. Does it mean we ship whatever arms they need to push back the Russians? Yes. Stingers and Javelins especially. They’ve asked for our help, and we should oblige.
As I mentioned earlier, the Russian economy is incredibly fragile and entirely dependent on fossil fuel exports. As much as we can we should shut off their access to world markets. Putin’s war machine will grind to a halt. So, we should increase domestic production (more leases on public lands, approve Keystone XL, add nuclear capacity especially in Europe) to blunt the impact of a spike in oil. Which to this point hasn’t been catastrophic. Brent closed at $97, far from $6 gas. That would be almost double the current oil price.
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@FarmerJayhawk You take out Russia’s oil and gas, and the world markets will go insane. Yesterday, on the Ercot spot market, prices moved up to 4.00 per kwh for awhile. It will take years for us to get to the capacity it will take to pull off what you’re talking about. I’m dealing with natural gas prices that are almost double what they normally are in certain markets from last year . The fact that the conflict started immediately ran up the electric rates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey( omg the rates there are horrid), Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, and DC. Not sure about the other markets in the US, but those are the markets I deal with. I had someone ask for prices in Jersey, and I told him the rate was : an arm and a leg. And folks in Ohio are calling in, begging us to take them on because Dominion East gas is slaughtering them. They paid over 7.00 per mcf with the utility last month. That’s like over 3 times higher than the low price in the past 18 months. Now we’re going to add a big old fat war on top of it, and limit the world’s gas and oil for awhile. Yeah buddy…sounds like a great plan they have…lol.
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Last post on this subject for me: From The Atlantic:
Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do,” he said.
I asked Obama whether his position on Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic.
“It’s realistic,” he said. “But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for. And at the end of the day, there’s always going to be some ambiguity.”
The Associated Press @AP BREAKING: Just 26% of Americans say the U.S. should play a major role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a new AP-NORC poll. President Biden has argued that fundamental American values are at stake in Eastern Europe.
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For anyone that thinks this situation will give China thoughts of of invading Taiwan, that’s not going to happen. The second China attempts to move on Taiwan, Japan and the US would destroy Jinping and his forces. China’s only advantage would be their numbers, but the US and Japan are both vastly technologically superior to the Chinese military.
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@Jethro said in It's About To Go Down:
@FarmerJayhawk You take out Russia’s oil and gas, and the world markets will go insane. Yesterday, on the Ercot spot market, prices moved up to 4.00 per kwh for awhile. It will take years for us to get to the capacity it will take to pull off what you’re talking about. I’m dealing with natural gas prices that are almost double what they normally are in certain markets from last year . The fact that the conflict started immediately ran up the electric rates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey( omg the rates there are horrid), Massachusetts, Illinois, Ohio, and DC. Not sure about the other markets in the US, but those are the markets I deal with. I had someone ask for prices in Jersey, and I told him the rate was : an arm and a leg. And folks in Ohio are calling in, begging us to take them on because Dominion East gas is slaughtering them. They paid over 7.00 per mcf with the utility last month. That’s like over 3 times higher than the low price in the past 18 months. Now we’re going to add a big old fat war on top of it, and limit the world’s gas and oil for awhile. Yeah buddy…sounds like a great plan they have…lol.
Of course, nobody said there would be no impact. The question is do we stand by and permit a mass slaughter of innocent people or do we not. The markets will go crazy regardless because Russia is led by what increasingly looks to be a crazy person. War is here. We’re feeling it already. If one is a realist on these issues (as I am) I believe countering a belligerent Russia is a good thing. As I believe countering a belligerent Iraq was a good thing 30 years ago. It can’t be just ok to annex whatever territory you can take by force. We have tools to counter a hostile foreign power without entering a hot war. We should use them.
Also never rely on issue polling on foreign policy. Voters are like… SUPER dumb. They definitely couldn’t point to Ukraine on a map and most still probably call it The Ukraine since they haven’t updated their priors in years, if ever. The freaking Iraq War was wildly popular. Should we have invaded to depose Saddam? Ummm… no.
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He claims this and that but his spiel on NATO is false.
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@Zabudda said in It's About To Go Down:
He claims this and that but his spiel on NATO is false.
That’s why I said that’s what Putin claims NATO told Gorbachev. It doesn’t change that Putin is pissed about former Soviet nations joining NATO and wants NATO to return to its pre-1997 membership because Putin wants to reform the Soviet Union.
