July predictions for the upcoming season results
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
KU is a legitimate national title contender next season. That is the ceiling for this team is cutting the nets down in New Orleans.
As for the roster, I think the starting line up ends up being R. Martin, JCL, Agbaji, Wilson, and McCormack. I think the primary reserves will be Yesufu, Braun, and C. Martin with Dejuan Harris and Zach Clemence fighting for rotation level minutes as well, but the two most likely to get squeezed if Self goes 8 deep. I think Pettiford and Adams find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the rotation goes and end up as possible redshirt candidates. I believe Kyle Cuffe will be a for sure redshirt this year since he’s coming in a year early and needs time to develop.
As far as the Big 12, there’s one more puzzle piece for sure out there that can affect the Big 12 and that’s Marcus Carr. Marcus Carr in Austin makes them a top 5 team and a national title contender as well. Baylor will take step back, but still a borderline top 10 team. West Virginia should also be a top 20 team and would’ve been a top 10 team had McBride returned. Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. should still be tournament caliber teams. TCU could sneak into being a bubble team, and KSU and ISU will both be garbage and Bruce Weber will be fired after this season.
I think Remy Martin ends up winning Big 12 POY and leads the team in scoring and assists. Dave and Ochai will also earn All-12 honors and Wilson and JCL will be honorable mentions this year.
I recently saw an article of 247 Sports that Carr is also now considering over seas’s pro options saying he is considering all scenario’s
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I miss the days when I had time to stay as plugged in to D1 as you. Thanks for the input!
Your starting lineup screams high-level play and hard not to see us winning most everything (if not everything) and should put us right there as a team ranked #1 preseason (or soon thereafter).
Our starting 5 will be very experienced separately, and stand a great chance of gelling into something very special. At that point, it really is up to Self to scheme up winning offense.
I’m a little uncertain how we will do defensively. This is the one area leaving the biggest question mark for me, though I think in the least we will be far above most of the competition.
Even with all the depth, we need to stay healthy… especially key players, like Martin.
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@drgnslayr said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
I miss the days when I had time to stay as plugged in to D1 as you. Thanks for the input!
Your starting lineup screams high-level play and hard not to see us winning most everything (if not everything) and should put us right there as a team ranked #1 preseason (or soon thereafter).
Our starting 5 will be very experienced separately, and stand a great chance of gelling into something very special. At that point, it really is up to Self to scheme up winning offense.
I’m a little uncertain how we will do defensively. This is the one area leaving the biggest question mark for me, though I think in the least we will be far above most of the competition.
Even with all the depth, we need to stay healthy… especially key players, like Martin.
I don’t think KU will be preseason #1, but it’s possible. There’s going to be a lot of teams splitting the votes. Gonzaga, Michigan, Villanova, UCLA, Ohio St., and Texas if they get Marcus Carr are all teams that could get first place votes along with Kansas.
Defense is going to be a weakness since Self didn’t significantly upgrade the athleticism. Defense is why I think Dejuan Harris could find a spot in the rotation because he’s KU’s best on ball defender.
The offense should look like a typical Self 4 out offense. Remy is a guy who will aggressively attack the basket, Dave will bet a lot of screens so will see a lot of picks and screens. JCL, Agbaji, Braun, and Wilson should all get quite a few open looks from three this season. Dejuan Harris next to Martin would be good as well because we know Harris can hit open 3’s. Yesufu should be able to do a lot of Martin does on offense, just not quite as well. Agbaji should also get a fair amount of lob passes as well.
Bottom line is this team should be a lot of fun to watch on offense this season and be a pretty high scoring team that doesn’t suffer the same type of scoring droughts of the last couple of seasons because this team, while not elite like the Mason and Graham era, should be a good outside shooting team.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I believe it goes against Bill’s MO to not start Braun. When was the last time Self didnt start a perimeter guy who was 3rd year and was a rotation guy previous 2 seasons? I agree JCL seems like the better starter. And these are new uncharted waters with transfers not having to sit. Bill will have to prove himself maybe with giving minutes to JCL or suffer the consequences recruiting transfers going forward. I just think its going to be hard for him.
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I don’t think Braun or JCL start. Bill loves ball handling at the 2. I think we roll Remy Yesufu Och Jalen Dave for the plurality of games this year. Yesufu’s last month at Drake was really good. Shot it really really well from 3 and the line. Can really get his own shot. It’s not a great defensive unit but not like Braun is a stopper either.
As far as expectations? Bare minimum 3 seed, top 3 in the league. Average outcome, 1 seed, elite eight.
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SHIP
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I think Braun will start the first few games but unless he has his shot back and plays at a top level constantly he won’t start long.
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I know that the other Big 12 schools have a LOT of catching up to do!!!
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@approxinfinity said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Texas-Hawk-10 I believe it goes against Bill’s MO to not start Braun. When was the last time Self didnt start a perimeter guy who was 3rd year and was a rotation guy previous 2 seasons? I agree JCL seems like the better starter. And these are new uncharted waters with transfers not having to sit. Bill will have to prove himself maybe with giving minutes to JCL or suffer the consequences recruiting transfers going forward. I just think its going to be hard for him.
Christian Braun was terrible last year and was a black hole on both ends of the floor far too frequently last season. Braun needs to play 3 or the 4 when KU goes small, not the 2 which is what he was forced into last season.
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think Yesufu ends up starting. He’s never been a full time starter and I don’t think Self ends up starting him over JCL who has always been a starter wherever he was. Yesufu is probably more likely to be on the floor at the end of games in crunch time than JCL is which is the more important dynamic anyway. I think there’s also a lot more question marks about how consistent Yesufu be against a full P5 schedule as opposed to a handful of games whereas JCL doesn’t have those question marks because he’s a known commodity at the P5 level. I wouldn’t even be surprised is Yesufu ends up playing more minutes than JCL, but I think it makes more sense given their histories to start JCL over Yesufu.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 i appreciate your take on this. Seems like solid reasoning. Braun had his moments but was a black hole for long stretches far too often.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@approxinfinity said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Texas-Hawk-10 I believe it goes against Bill’s MO to not start Braun. When was the last time Self didnt start a perimeter guy who was 3rd year and was a rotation guy previous 2 seasons? I agree JCL seems like the better starter. And these are new uncharted waters with transfers not having to sit. Bill will have to prove himself maybe with giving minutes to JCL or suffer the consequences recruiting transfers going forward. I just think its going to be hard for him.
Christian Braun was terrible last year and was a black hole on both ends of the floor far too frequently last season. Braun needs to play 3 or the 4 when KU goes small, not the 2 which is what he was forced into last season.
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think Yesufu ends up starting. He’s never been a full time starter and I don’t think Self ends up starting him over JCL who has always been a starter wherever he was. Yesufu is probably more likely to be on the floor at the end of games in crunch time than JCL is which is the more important dynamic anyway. I think there’s also a lot more question marks about how consistent Yesufu be against a full P5 schedule as opposed to a handful of games whereas JCL doesn’t have those question marks because he’s a known commodity at the P5 level. I wouldn’t even be surprised is Yesufu ends up playing more minutes than JCL, but I think it makes more sense given their histories to start JCL over Yesufu.
I don’t think JCL has a good enough handle or defends well enough to start. The fit alongside Ochai is weird since he’s the same stylistically, but worse at almost everything but spot up shooting. To me Braun is more likely to start than JCL
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@drgnslayr The only thing that I am concerned about is remembering that transfer heavy Lawson brothers team of a few years back when it just didn’t mesh, and as I recall we started the season rated #1. This year we have what, nine new players (5 transfers, 4 freshmen)? But in Bill I trust, and on paper we do look very good.
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@Marco said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@drgnslayr The only thing that I am concerned about is remembering that transfer heavy Lawson brothers team of a few years back when it just didn’t mesh, and as I recall we started the season rated #1. This year we have what, nine new players (5 transfers, 4 freshmen)? But in Bill I trust, and on paper we do look very good.
The 2018-19 team did not have a bad year because of the transfers. Doke’s injury had the biggest impact on the team as KU was undefeated with Doke starting. The other big impact was Lagerald Vick being a team cancer and getting kicked off the team. Quentin Grimes being a massive bust also really hurt that team. That was also one of Self’s youngest teams ever and at one point had 4 freshmen in the starting line up.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 good points one and all, but how many transfers? Also, were we not rated number one to start the season while at the end damn near having our top 25 streak snapped?
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@Marco said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Texas-Hawk-10 good points one and all, but how many transfers? Also, were we not rated number one to start the season while at the end damn near having our top 25 streak snapped?
Dedric Lawson was the only transfer that played big minutes the entire year. Charlie Moore was the last man in the rotation and KJ Lawson didn’t become a rotation guy until after Vick was kicked off the team. The transfers didn’t play nearly the role that Doke’s season ending injury did when KU went 5-5 the next 10 games which is also when Vick’s issues started affecting the team. Moore got a boost in playing time after Doke got hurt and Self went to the 4 out look and KJ didn’t get a boost in minutes until after Vick was kicked off the team.
And no, KU was never close to dropping out of the top 25 as their lowest ranking in the polls was 17th going into the NCAA Tournament.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 so, what actually happened to Vick? Why was he kicked off the team?
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@rockchalkwyo mental health issues
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@rockchalkwyo said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Texas-Hawk-10 so, what actually happened to Vick? Why was he kicked off the team?
Officially it was family issues, but Vick was major locker room cancer and his attitude was rubbing off on the rest of the team so Self sent him packing and KU played better down the stretch after Vick was gone.
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I wonder if Self and coaches learned anything from having to deal with players like Vick, Greene, and Grimes? It really only takes one bad apple to spoil the team. Thinking back… we had guys that caused trouble but improved… I’m thinking TT and the Morris twins.
Anyone have thoughts on this?
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@drgnslayr its hard to tell how its going to shake out. Thinking about some of the BS other high major programs have been through Id say we’ve had pretty good dudes all in all. I didnt think Vick was troubled after season 1. Not sure there were significant warning signs in his recruitment. Same with Carlton. Also, Giddens was a Roy recruit, and seemed fine after season 1. Its just hard to say how fame and pressure will affect these kids. Tyshawn was a knucklehead and seemed like more trouble than he was worth until a solid second half of senior year.
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@approxinfinity I’d put josh Jackson in there too. Him and vick together. Josh had a wicked temper. I’m glad to see him doing better, it almost cost him his dream.
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@Crimsonorblue22 yeah, i wonder if vick would Have had the same issues without Jackson, and its hard to argue Jackson wasnt worth it.
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@approxinfinity said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Crimsonorblue22 yeah, i wonder if vick would Have had the same issues without Jackson, and its hard to argue Jackson wasnt worth it.
Yes, Vick had the same attitude issues before Josh Jackson ever set foot on campus. That’s why Self basically forced Vick out after his junior season and Vick had to move mountains to come back as a senior.
Josh Jackson was more in the Morris Twins camp of being immature much more than being a cancer. Josh Jackson objectively made that team better.
JR Giddens is probably the only other person who came close to being the cancer that Vick was. The other name I would add is CJ Henry, but he had little impact on the team play since he wasn’t a rotation guy. All the other names I’ve seen weren’t guys that were cancerous enough to the team to be kicked off mid season like Giddens and Vick were.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Maybe so, but Josh balled his ass off.
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I could be wrong… but it seemed like Mother Angel saved the day for the Morris twins. Didn’t she flip the tables and suddenly turn her boys and the rest of the team around to being better young men? Didn’t her move to Lawrence help Bill support the idea of having parents live in Lawrence?
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
I think Remy Martin ends up winning Big 12 POY and leads the team in scoring and assists. Dave and Ochai will also earn All-12 honors and Wilson and JCL will be honorable mentions this year.
I’m really really curious to see Self handle a volume(borderline ballhog) shooter like Martin. The dude averaged nearly 15 shots a game the last two seasons. Devonte and Frank never got that high. Self generally clashes with chuck first guys and it’s not like there are a couple of years of trust built up.
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@BigBad said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@Texas-Hawk-10 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
I think Remy Martin ends up winning Big 12 POY and leads the team in scoring and assists. Dave and Ochai will also earn All-12 honors and Wilson and JCL will be honorable mentions this year.
I’m really really curious to see Self handle a volume(borderline ballhog) shooter like Martin. The dude averaged nearly 15 shots a game the last two seasons. Devonte and Frank never got that high. Self generally clashes with chuck first guys and it’s not like there are a couple of years of trust built up.
Remy was only a volume shooter because of the lack of a quality supporting cast in Tempe. Remy had a near identical usage rate as McCormack last season and Martin had a higher assist rate than Marcus Garrett or even Devon Dotson the season before. Martin also had 24 more FT attempts than Jalen Wilson did last season despite playing in 6 fewer games. Martin shot over 6 FT’s per game last year so we know he’s an aggressive driver who looks for contact.
Remy Martin’s style of play compares very favorably to Frank Mason. The two main differences in their games is Mason was a much better 3 point shooter than Martin is and Mason was the superior defender. Outside shooting is the biggest hole in Martin’s game as he’s only 33.6% for his career, but I would expect that % to go up a little bit closer to his freshman peak of 37% with a better supporting cast leading to more open looks and a reduced volume of attempts.
Remy Martin absolutely fits the profile of Bill Self’s ideal PG and is very much in the Sherron Collins, Tyshawn, Taylor, Frank Mason style of play.
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@drgnslayr Cole’s dad moved here, I think he lost his job. TT’s mom and fam moved here, think she worked at a grocery store?
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@Crimsonorblue22 Probably going to see alot more of that, with NIL being approved.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
Remy Martin absolutely fits the profile of Bill Self’s ideal PG and is very much in the Sherron Collins, Tyshawn, Taylor, Frank Mason style of play.
Bingo!
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KU will be very solid, but likely not great. I look at the roster and see tons of good (even very good) players, but no superstars.
That probably means 20 something wins, finishing top three in the conference (lots of rebuilding going on in the Big 12) with a real shot at winning the conference, a top 4 NCAA tournament seed and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. I don’t see Final Four on this team right now, but the season I just described would have 95% of fan bases absolutely salivating for the start of the season (seriously, if you are a fan of Cal, or Mississippi State, or Purdue, or Boston College, or Iowa State, and you knew right now that the next basketball season held that as the likely outcome, those fanbases would be beyond excited for November to get here). We are spoiled as KU fans, because that’s a great season most places, but just a kind of okay season in Lawrence.
Still, that’s what I am anticipating. If things break right, I could see KU winning the Big 12 going away, getting a top 2 seed and being in the hunt for a Final Four, but that will require some guys to step forward on both ends of the floor.
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@justanotherfan my biggest question, how much improved is, Big Dave?
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@justanotherfan very reasonable take. I think Bill’s coaching always elevates the team in the regular season. I think there are coaches with last years roster that fail to make the tournament.
We are all very excited for Remy and rightfully so but he has warts or h wouldn’t be back in college. His advanced stat profile is somewhat worrisome but still he will be great for us. The question is in tough games against elite comp how does KU do.
I’m expecting big gains from Jalen again, he is working his ass off. Look for a better three ball and more rebounding from what has been reported.
Yesufu to me is the ultimate wild card. We know about the end of his season but much of that was against sub par comp. His stats against better teams were due to volume, not efficiency. I imagine the truth will be somewhere in the middle. Overall I like his game and the fit for Bill. He is the kind of guard that Bill “turns into” a pg.
I would like to believe we get the Dave from the second half of the season because early Dave was nigh unplayable.
Och and CB I don’t expect big leaps but both will end up shooting better with better guard play.
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I’m not sure we need a superstar for the team to be elite next season, but I think we have some candidates. Jalen, or the point guard who averaged 19 per game last season.
My concerns for next season are: One, how well this team will defend; and two, how well Dave will hold down the center position.
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I’m confident this is a Top 5 team. Lots of shooting. Lots of depth. Plenty of offensive playmaking to avoid the stagnant periods of a year ago.
Athleticism is still an issue, but I think we more than make up for it.
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@justanotherfan said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
KU will be very solid, but likely not great. I look at the roster and see tons of good (even very good) players, but no superstars.
That probably means 20 something wins, finishing top three in the conference (lots of rebuilding going on in the Big 12) with a real shot at winning the conference, a top 4 NCAA tournament seed and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. I don’t see Final Four on this team right now, but the season I just described would have 95% of fan bases absolutely salivating for the start of the season (seriously, if you are a fan of Cal, or Mississippi State, or Purdue, or Boston College, or Iowa State, and you knew right now that the next basketball season held that as the likely outcome, those fanbases would be beyond excited for November to get here). We are spoiled as KU fans, because that’s a great season most places, but just a kind of okay season in Lawrence.
Still, that’s what I am anticipating. If things break right, I could see KU winning the Big 12 going away, getting a top 2 seed and being in the hunt for a Final Four, but that will require some guys to step forward on both ends of the floor.
KU may not have any future NBA superstars this year, but Remy Martin is absolutely a college superstar. You don’t become a multiple time first team all conference in a P5 league without being a great college player. Martin is what elevates KU from Big 12 contender to national title contender. As long as Dave can be the same Dave from the last 2/3 of last season, there won’t be many, if any, better 1-2 punches in the country.
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I’m curious to see how mentally tough this team is. I feel like the past few seasons we’ve been a bit fragile when punched in the mouth. Athleticism seems to trump everything, but I want to see what kind of fire and mental fortitude these guys possess when the dogfight is in full swing. I don’t know as much about these guys as @BShark and others, but I sense we have a few tough hombres on this team.
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@tis4tim Well said. The last couple of teams have been soft and individual players have disappeared when the going got tough (Braun, Wilson, even Agbaji at times, and Big Dave when he was up against big and athletic power forwards).
This year’s team should have plenty of suitable backups. I think an earlier post said that if anybody gets an attitude (or goes soft) they will be sitting on the bench. If that doesn’t motivate some of these incumbent players with NBA aspirations, nothing will.
I can’t wait to see this team play. And I’ll be disappointed if the roster is the same as last year with just a replacement for Garrett. Let’s see these new guys earn and take some minutes!
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@justanotherfan my biggest question, how much improved is, Big Dave?
With the roster that we have for this year , the players in place I don’t think Dave has to improve that much at all. He I believe it was at 13.3 ppg and about 8 rebounds per game . many many times he saved our butts. If we can get reasonably balanced scoring I think will be fine right about where he is at. I think Dave was an easy target for people to beat up last year and get down on. There was plenty of fault to go around for ALL on the roster last year.
Ochi had more the his share of turning the ball over and just flat disappearing in games. There were times last year made you wonder if he even suited up, many times seemed like he was in a flat ass hurry to get rid of the ball out of his hands. - - - Jalen went through slumps shooting wasn’t the best . Christian was another that disappeared lost all confidence in his shot , got to the point he was turning down wide open shots not even looking at the basket.
I think if Dave can put up the same kind of numbers he did last year, possibly a little better rebound average he gonna be fine - - stay out of foul trouble -he/we going to be fine. - We have the Scoreeres this year don’t need huge numbers
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I’m really high on the Yesufu/Remy additions. Both can just turn into a microwave. Both can get to the basket. Both should be massive improvements in the transition game (the amount of points left on the floor during a 2 on 1 break last year was embarrassing).
These are things that this team really lacked a year ago.
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I don’t remember the specifics but Otis Livingston committed an all time blunder when he got kicked off the 1988 KU team during the conference tournament. He and Brown argued about something.
He has been very successful as a sports reporter in NYC winning multiple Emmies! Good for him.
I hope the same thing happens this year.
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@Crimsonorblue22 asks a fair question of how much Big Dave improves. I think he will be improved because he is a hard worker. The question is not if he improves, or even how much, but where.
If Dave improves as a scorer, that helps some, because Self will always want to be able to throw the ball into the post, but because Dave isn’t a superstar scorer, unless he improves to that level, too much improvement here could be a detriment because it may lead KU to trying to run its offense through Big Dave rather than keeping things on the perimeter, where there are better scorers. So if Dave isn’t a superstar scorer, KU is better off with him more or less being the same, because him getting more touches may not improve the team long term.
Now, if Big Dave has improved as a passer, we are talking about some major team improvement here because now we are talking about him kicking the ball out from the post to a bevy of capable shooters. While a modest improvement in scoring doesn’t necessarily help KU next year, a modest improvement as a passer does because that unlocks parts of the offense that currently are not open.
In the same vein, a modest improvement as a rebounder helps KU because it means Big Dave can more ably be relied on as the sole big man in the lineup without KU getting smashed on the boards. This is also an area where Dave has a chance to really improve, so improvements here would be noticeable from him to even the most casual fan, and it would make a big difference for the team as well.
If Big Dave improves defensively, particularly with rim protection, this is where KU probably improves the most. He isn’t bad defensively now, but if he improves into a true deterrent around the rim, that helps KU’s otherwise pedestrian perimeter defense move closer to a championship quality group. KU has a chance to be improved on the perimeter defensively next year as a unit (having one or two top notch defenders doesn’t help if other guys are below average). If that happens and Dave can anchor the defense in the middle, again, that allows for a noticeable improvement, raising both the floor and the ceiling for this team.
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@justanotherfan really outstanding post. Nailed it.
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@justanotherfan To add to the Big Dave factor. We know Big Dave works hard and is is going to be better, more comfortable, and a more efficient (if not a spectacular physical) presence than last year. I think a big part of Self’s offense will be with a big smart Dave and a totally unleashed Ochai… if those two can figure out how to work together, we’re good. Really good.
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I agree… it would be great to see Dave improve on defense.
More than anything else… I’d like to see Dave just focus on his feet. Developing a bit better foot coordination and quickness would vastly help his defensive positioning. I do think he has improved his foot coordination over the past year and just hope he continues to work on it more. I always suggest dance lessons.
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@DanR said in July predictions for the upcoming season results:
@justanotherfan To add to the Big Dave factor. We know Big Dave works hard and is is going to be better, more comfortable, and a more efficient (if not a spectacular physical) presence than last year. I think a big part of Self’s offense will be with a big smart Dave and a totally unleashed Ochai… if those two can figure out how to work together, we’re good. Really good.
Ochai will not be the focus of the offense. He’ll either be the second or more likely the third option this year. Remy Martin is going to be option one because he is Frank Mason levels of aggressive driving to the basket and having a much better supporting cast here than in Tempe should also boost his 3 point % because he doesn’t have to be a volume shooter like he was there. Dave may very well be the #2 scorer on this team as a lot of the offense will involve him and Remy. Ochai should still be a double digit scorer, but his role will likely change more into a 3 point shooter/lob receiver so hopefully Ochai is working on the corner 3 this off season.
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Dave’s coming off foot surgery too!
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The new way to early espn top 25 has KU at #2 behind Gonzaga. Bill tells Dickie V we’re gonna be real good!! Can’t wait to get this started!
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@Oldmanhawk ditto.
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@Oldmanhawk should be a very fun year. Not a ton of super elite talent, but a lot of really damn good college players.
