All Politicked Out? Election 2020
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There’s not 270 out there for Trump. Enjoy your day, folks. This one is ovaaaaaaa
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Yay, drawn out legal battles, Washington gridlock with Mitch and Lindsey still doing their thing, and QAnon supporters, D-bag trolls and covid casualties posthumously winning office for the GOP.
It could be worse. But the two party system is failing us, social media and search algorithms are creating echo chambers of opinions and thought, and the Democrats are losing a culture war they don’t understand.
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Trump is suing to stop ballot counts in Michigan? Gtfo of here with this bs.
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If the current AP tracker holds, it would end up 270-268 in favor of Biden and that’s with Pennsylvania and Georgia going to Trump.
I would also expect Trump to call for a recall in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia if those results end up in the legal range to be able to call for a recall.
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If all goes as it should, it’ll end up 279-259 or 290-248. Talked to one of my friends in the RNC orbit and PA looks like it’ll go Biden by 70-100k. Wisconsin already called. Michigan will only get bigger for Biden (though hopefully not big enough to beat John James), and I don’t have a great feel for AZ.
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@FarmerJayhawk The AP has already called Arizona for Biden. They currently have Biden leading by about 100k votes with 84% reporting.
The only states the AP hasn’t called yet are Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
The current totals as of about 2:30pm Central Time have Trump leading Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Biden leading Michigan and Nevada.
Only chance Trump has is to hold all 4 of those states, he’ll win Alaska and probably North Carolina, and flip Nevada, but Pennsylvania will almost for sure flip to Biden once the votes are in.
I think it’s going to end up at 290-248 Biden with Joe taking Michigan, Nevada, and flipping Pennsylvania and Trump winning Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk The AP has already called Arizona for Biden. They currently have Biden leading by about 100k votes with 84% reporting.
The only states the AP hasn’t called yet are Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
The current totals as of about 2:30pm Central Time have Trump leading Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Biden leading Michigan and Nevada.
Only chance Trump has is to hold all 4 of those states, he’ll win Alaska and probably North Carolina, and flip Nevada, but Pennsylvania will almost for sure flip to Biden once the votes are in.
I think it’s going to end up at 290-248 Biden with Joe taking Michigan, Nevada, and flipping Pennsylvania and Trump winning Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Arizona has come to play with Trump - -something more on the votes - this whole thing is jsut crazy/ugly lawsuits - -recounts - - people saying ballots shouldn’t be counted that was post marked to late just insane.
Knew this was coming
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Trump is suing to stop ballot counts in Michigan? Gtfo of here with this bs.
it’s happening
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@approxinfinity In Pennsylvania too. Which probably bodes well for Biden’s chances of taking PA.
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@jayballer67 unless I’m not understanding precedent here, which is entirely possible, I assume you can file suit for a REcount, but filing suit to stop the actual counting is an attempt to subvert democracy. There is no indication of wrong doing here, this is just more Trump bullshit exceptionalism.
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The AP call of Arizona looks premature to me. There are still over 600k ballots outstanding there, and Trump needs about 58% to win the state. He was running a little over 60% in late ballots last night, so it’s doable. Though not super likely.
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@FarmerJayhawk 400k in Maricopa country which is blue
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@approxinfinity they won’t be as Democratic given what we know about how many were mailed, dropped off, and come from the rural parts of the state and county. I think it was smart to hold off, like most other news organizations and aggregators like DDHQ have.
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Wish CNN would get a token Republican that had a little more integrity than Rick Santorum for their panel.
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I don’t think you can call Arizona yet. But Trump trying to claim MI right now is ridiculous and insane. Even more insane than calling PA and GA for himself
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@Kcmatt7 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
I don’t think you can call Arizona yet. But Trump trying to claim MI right now is ridiculous and insane. Even more insane than calling PA and GA for himself
That tweet was gold!
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image url)https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716470085346131999/773688083013959710/EmA6sulXgAEUNZM.png
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Heh
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Really looking like Georgia is going to be insanely close.
Biden down 46k votes.
Looks like Biden could pick up another 30k votes in Atlanta. Another 10k out of Columbus. And another 6k from Augusta.
Talk about a photo finish.
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But there are small counties left that Trump could pick up votes in too right?
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Also, theres this… https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/trump-campaign-files-lawsuit-in-georgia-to-pause-ballot-count
Trump and crew strategy: F with USPS, then sue when delayed unprocessed absentee ballots are allegedly processed after 7PM.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@jayballer67 unless I’m not understanding precedent here, which is entirely possible, I assume you can file suit for a REcount, but filing suit to stop the actual counting is an attempt to subvert democracy. There is no indication of wrong doing here, this is just more Trump bullshit exceptionalism.
I’m just ready to get past this bullshit , it’s like twiddle dee - -& twiddle dum, If it was turned around it would be exactly the same song 2nd verse.
I just wonder now how long it will be after Biden is elected before you see the insane shit - - Kim Chun - raise up and test Biden , He probably has his Nation worshipping him big time tonight cause the guy that didn’t take no shit from him is no longer in office.
You can take it to the Bank he will challenge Biden - -I’m still waiting for a DECENT PICK for president again - -been to long
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@approxinfinity Correct.
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The fact that Trump’s support was so deeply underestimated speaks to the fact that this is the blueprint we can expect for the future. Douche it up, cheat, scratch, claw, lie, defame, encourage crazies, refuse to denounce reprehensible activity, weaponize everything and anything. Nothing is sacred. Nothing is out of bounds.
And this is ok, right? Republicans are good with this. I mean not publicly, when asked for polls. But when they’re standing there looking at the ballot… well that’s between them and their God, right?
Character is what you do when nobody is watching.
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Under 40k now in GA. Most recent batch came in at 72% Biden. If he keeps that pace he wins GA.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
The fact that Trump’s support was so deeply underestimated speaks to the fact that this is the blueprint we can expect for the future. Douche it up, cheat, scratch, claw, lie, defame, encourage crazies, refuse to denounce reprehensible activity, weaponize everything and anything. Nothing is sacred. Nothing is out of bounds.
And this is ok, right? Republicans are good with this. I mean not publicly, when asked for polls. But when they’re standing there looking at the ballot… well that’s between them and their God, right?
Character is what you do when nobody is watching.
I think you have to wait for the mid-terms to see where the Republican party is going to go. I don’t think continually nominating a douche is going to be a good long-term strategy though.
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Related observations. I’m always amazed how awful Democrats are at non-Presidential politics. They spent $200 million to lose by 35 points combined to Cocaine Mitch and Lindsey Graham. Well done folks!
Cocaine Mitch is the all time greatest. Keeping the Senate majority is massive. And I firmly believe if you shot Biden up with truth serum, he’d rather have ML McConnell than Schumer. They can make deals and Biden can blame McConnell for anything. And he’d be happy to take the barbs.
The GOP picked up state legislative seats nationwide, which has big redistricting implications.
There was an EPIC polling failure in JoCo and Kansas broadly this year. Someone in the party showed me a poll that had D’s picking up 10-15 House seats and 5 Senate seats. The GOP expanded their supermajority in the state legislature, including a big upset in knocking off Sen. Hensley, who’s been Minority Leader longer than I’ve been alive. Can’t blame anyone but themselves. The GOP just outhustled D’s.
I think Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer should step down from leadership, especially if Senate R’s keep 52-53 seats. They flat blew it.
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@Kcmatt7 I think we are going to see an explosion of douches running at all levels of government.
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@FarmerJayhawk you don’t think having Trump at the top of the ticket had the most to do with the turnout? what makes Mitch the greatest?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk you don’t think having Trump at the top of the ticket had the most to do with the turnout?
Also, what makes Mitch the greatest? Winning?
I do not. Down ballot candidates ran pretty far ahead of Trump in a ton of districts D’s thought they had in the bag. Like in JoCo, Marshall and Adkins ran a couple points ahead. Legislative candidates ran WAY ahead of Trump. A similar pattern emerges around the country. Biggest example is Collins in Maine. If anything, down ballot candidates had coattails for Trump.
Cocaine Mitch, the grim reaper, Midnight Mitch, whatever totally badass nickname you prefer, is the most consequential Senator since LBJ, and he may end up surpassing LBJ in accomplishments. He’s incredible at keeping his slim majority together and playing the long game. He runs circles around Schumer and previously Harry Reid. He kind of used Trump as a useful idiot in his ultimate goal of remaking the federal judiciary. Really a masterclass in parliamentary leadership.
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@FarmerJayhawk consequential, I agree, but to be great you first have to be good, and the man is evil.
I prefer “Senor Turtlehead” or “Yertle The Turtle”
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@approxinfinity hard disagree on the evilness of Cocaine Mitch.
Anyways, we got a nice AZ vote dump from Maricopa. Trump +18. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the AP retract its call.
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I’ll have to think more about how likely the down ticket votes drove votes for Trump. It seems like even if the top of the ticket was a Biden or 3rd party vote, if the election was a referendum on Trump, good or bad, he still drives people to the polls who might split their ticket
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Why do we cast physical ballots? Why don’t we have a secure government website where we can cast our vote easily and securely? It can be done with the same level of checksums and transparency. This whole process is sloppy, inefficient and an avenue for greater voter suppression.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
an avenue for greater voter suppression.
And you have your answer. It isn’t about getting the most votes. It is about getting the right votes.
Is that ethical? No. Is that reality? Absolutely.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Also, theres this… https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/trump-campaign-files-lawsuit-in-georgia-to-pause-ballot-count
Trump and crew strategy: F with USPS, then sue when delayed unprocessed absentee ballots are allegedly processed after 7PM.
Trump was having mail sorting machines destroyed and driving home this narrative that mail-in voting is wrong. Then he wondered why he was not getting mail-in votes… Maybe he should have played it differently.
Looks like the Republicans are flipping some house seats. As always, perfect balance to insure nothing gets done.
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This whole Arizona thing isn’t over yet. - - they said Trump would need to get 57 % in Mericope Co to stay in the race for Arizona - -and that’s exactly what he got - -57 % . they were saying if he wins Arizona and holds Pennsylvania Trump will win.
In Pennsylvania they said they have Democratic clerks coming forward and bringing forth things about illegal activity from Democratic party
They talking about like 23,000 votes from a dump vote in Pennsylvania and Biden got EVERY Single vote 100 % - -ZERO votes for Trump in that 23,000 dump vote - - roflmao - -like they saying ummmm something for sure wrong there. - -this is about to get REAL UGLY
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@FarmerJayhawk here in ks the pacs just killed us! The mods got beat in the primary and we got some psycho right wing nut jobs. Here in hutch was the worst! It’s to long of a story.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Why do we cast physical ballots? Why don’t we have a secure government website where we can cast our vote easily and securely? It can be done with the same level of checksums and transparency. This whole process is sloppy, inefficient and an avenue for greater voter suppression.
In short, they’re unhackable and a permanent, unalterable record will always exist. Several places have experimented with online voting, and to an attempt there have been potentially fatal security flaws. The Feds released a pretty spiffy report on it not long ago.
Plus, there are still households in Louisiana without electricity due to hurricanes. It would be a total mess to deal with power outages. Think if a big ice storm hit Minneapolis right before Election Day. What’s the backup plan? Paper ballots. We even use them as a backup to voting machines. Paper ballots are still the most secure and failsafe way of voting. It’s not super efficient and takes awhile to count, but I’d rather keep doing it this way than reinventing the wheel for something so important.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk here in ks the pacs just killed us! The mods got beat in the primary and we got some psycho right wing nut jobs. Here in hutch was the worst! It’s to long of a story.
I know the story well! I consulted on a few KS races this year. Was a fun time. I talked to a few GOP types last night in the state and nobody anticipated what was going to happen (with the exception of Jared Suhn, because he’s a freaking savant). My early thoughts are the D’s got out hustled in JoCo. Kellie Warren is a freaking machine, as an example. I think D’s nominated some candidates that were poor fits for the district. Constance was a bad candidate in SD-10. Jim “interns make the best DD’s” Ward was truly bad against Petersen. Shoot, most Democrats are even lukewarm at best with Ward. They really need to do a better job recruiting candidates. R’s had some rock stars in some of these races. Kristen O’Shea flipped Laura Kelly’s old seat by 20 points (against a bad candidate in Tobias). Beverly Gossage got in a tough race late and pulled it out (full disclosure: I was a bundler for her waaaay back in the day). Brenda Dietrich will be very good. And have to give a shout to my best girl, Senator Elaine Bowers. She’s an incredibly lovely human.
The House is going to be pretty cranky and hard to deal with but Laura and the new Senate President (likely Longbine) will be able to drag the House around a bit. Should be an interesting couple years over there.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t buy it. If they hired real IT professionals to drive the project, they wouldn’t have critical security flaws. And as far as paper balloting being more secure and less corruptable, the fact that we would even entertain the ideas that there were massive dumps of votes for one candidate or the other, and ballots lost or destroyed, real or imaginary that all goes away with online voting.
Issue each citizen a unique online ID/gov email with an auto generated complex password. Password retrieval might be done in person. This email is used for all interactions with the government. In the case of voting, their response would be emailed back to them and they might vote well ahead of the deadline to be sure they have proper confirmation of how their vote was tallied. There would still be a local presence to handle things, especially in areas of extreme poverty or areas under duress.
My assumption is that Republicans do not want this. Maybe neither party does. This can easily lead down a path toward a more direct democracy with higher participation.
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@approxinfinity Forgive me, but that is the worst idea about voting I have heard in years. No system with widespread access is unhackable (think of the vulnerability of users’ credentials to get in, not the central code); millions of people do not have reliable internet access (kids are sitting outside motels to do virtual learning); many more millions have little ability to use or protect passwords (have you tried to coach an 83 year old non-internet user how to Zoom?); it would require universal voter registration (as well as national ID cards, not a viable idea in the US); and no one would trust the results.
Online voting in the US is a dream only.
A better idea would be to have national uniformity of voting and counting procedures.
“They can take away my paper ballot when they pry the pen from my cold, dead hands.”
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@mayjay hear me out.
We have social security numbers right? Just like a ss #, your password would be issued on a card that you’d be responsible to stash in a safe place. That is reasonable and not very different than a system we already have.
As far as people without internet, as I said, a fallback system would still be present.
This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a goal that we should strive toward aggressively.
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https://twitter.com/davidmanel/status/1323921182622732288?s=21
Someone who knows more than me tell me about this?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@mayjay hear me out.
We have social security numbers right? Just like a ss #, your password would be issued on a card that you’d be responsible to stash in a safe place. That is reasonable and not very different than a system we already have.
As far as people without internet, as I said, a fallback system would still be present.
This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a goal that we should strive toward aggressively.
At least we didn’t have major hacks that revealed everyone’s personal information over the last several years! DIA was breached after all. If someone (like, say, a country that rhymes with Prussia) can breach one of our most secure intelligence agencies, how could we secure a nationwide voting system? Does DIA not hire real IT pros? Same with the banks. Our national track record does not inspire confidence.
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@benshawks08 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
https://twitter.com/davidmanel/status/1323921182622732288?s=21
Someone who knows more than me tell me about this?
There was some polling evidence (especially in Florida) that Trump was making significant gains with minority men. There was also some evidence Trump really lost ground with seniors. In looking at a few counties, it looks like the first materialized, the second did not. We’ll know more when final exits come out.
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Early exit poll data supports this but yeah I’m extremely interested to see the full info.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
Key point there: in theory. We don’t have any track record of being able to secure people’s data. Not in the public or private sectors. Feels like I’m in constant free credit monitoring because of some breach by a random Russian kid. I’m also not sure it’s progress? Sure, it’s voting by screen and not paper. I’m just not convinced that’s progress other than using a more sophisticated technology. Let’s at least have one election using online voting that has actually worked before saying let’s all do it.
I think a better way is universal mail-in voting, like a bunch of states out west have done for years. It doesn’t depend on developing entire new systems, doesn’t require everyone to have a stable internet connection, is secure (especially with the 2 envelope system), and it’s accurate.
