MAN i had no idea
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@wissoxfan83 doesn’t jethro or Jed say that? Huh @KUSTEVE
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Looks like we made a nice impression on Lightfoot on his visit. Nothing on Azubuike as of yet… Seems like Lightfoot would like to commit to KU, I’m just not sold on him at all. Undersized, plays at the lower level in Arizona (same as Woolridge did). I would rather have others that fit our need & talent gap we will need to fill.
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Big man from DeSoto tx well not be taking he official visit to Kansas this week hope to reschedule if he does
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not an encouraging sign. How much we want to wager he doesn’t reschedule
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@BeddieKU23 It all depends on whether or not he shows at late night (which he is/was planning on attending unofficially). If that doesn’t happen, we’re toast. As far as I’m concerned, Jerrance Howard has one job this season: land Marques Bolden. If he can’t do that, Self needs to show him the door.
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He will still visit for late night tho
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Late Night schmate flight, It’s all a show.
Bolden coming this weekend would have given us fans genuine hope that he was serious about coming here. The staff would have been able to put all their focus on him, that was the whole plan of this visit.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but its never a positive when your top target cancels and doesn’t have another date already set to come back other than Late Night which is a crowded event with recruits. Funny how he cancels just days after Self is busy after Azubuike & Allen…
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@BeddieKU23 said:
Late Night schmate flight, It’s all a show.
Bolden coming this weekend would have given us fans genuine hope that he was serious about coming here. The staff would have been able to put all their focus on him, that was the whole plan of this visit.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but its never a positive when your top target cancels and doesn’t have another date already set to come back other than Late Night which is a crowded event with recruits. Funny how he cancels just days after Self is busy after Azubuike & Allen… Yes u are reading to much into it
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@BeddieKU23 I’ve got to disagree with you on this one. Bolden taking an unofficial means he’s spending money out of pocket. Why fork over $600 to visit a school for a weekend if you’re not giving them serious thought? Kids reschedule officials all the time. With AAU being basically a year-round commitment these days, any number of things could have come up, and Bolden is gonna be a busy kid. As long as he’s willing to come on campus, we have the opportunity we need.
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I don’t think this is good news … remember that Self had set aside this weekend solely for Bolden. Any way you slice it, it’s not good news. It may end up being irrelevant, but right now, not good.
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Right, it may end up an non-issue but right now it is.
Apparently he’s going to make his Official for Late Night, as I’ve now read that his family had scheduling issues that were known have prevented Bolden & his parents from visiting.
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Prospect can take only 5 official, expenses paid visits. If a prospect wants to take more than 5 visits, they will usually take the ones closer to home, less expensive ones as non-official and take the more expensive (farther, bigger cities) as official visits. For example, why would the kid from De Soto take an official visit to KU when he can drive 20 minutes and be there for basically no cost? He would not, he would save the “official” visit for places like UCLA, St Johns, Georgetown that are in high cost cities and where the price of taking a non-official visit would be very expensive.
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This is purely speculative, but I wonder if we are close to getting a commitment from Udoka. If so, perhaps Marques is being kept in the light and wants to see the outcome of Udoka before coming.
My thoughts for quite some time is that Udoka wants to commit early.
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@drgnslayr I don’t think landing Azubuike would impact Bolden too much. Bolden wants to play the 4 in college, and even at the 5, I can’t imagine he’d lag behind the behemoth, who is still quite raw. There are just too many post minutes opening up not to be able to accommodate both.
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@drgnslayr Good point bud, maybe we are, could be for some reason Bolden doesn’t want to come if we do, could be we end up with Udoka, Scheinder Herarld, and possibly Lightfoot, that wouldn’t necessarily be a terrible thing, true Bolden more of the immediate impact player, but those three I believe cdould really add to the program over the period of time. If lets say Lightfoot would commit here, I think your looking at a 3-4 yr player Herarld is a 3-4 yr player & Udoka is probably a 2-3 yr player guess we just have to wait and see. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@drgnslayr Considering that KU is likely to lose 4 front court players after this season, and probably 65-70 of the front court minutes available, it’s just not logical for an Azubuike commitment to sour Bolden on KU. If an Azubuike commitment is a deterrent to landing Bolden, that makes me not sure I’d even want Bolden if he’s afraid of competition or sharing the spotlight.
If he’s determined to play the 4 at KU though, then is Carlton Bragg the hurdle to landing Bolden? Bolden isn’t OAD material from what I’ve seen and KU still needs a quality back up at the 4 because I’m not sold at all on Coleby being a contributor at KU.
Either way, if Bolden is leaning away from KU because he is afraid of the competition Azubuike would bring or not being able to start at KU because Bragg would be ahead of him, the question then becomes do we or Self even want a player who’s taking that approach to his recruitment? Honestly, I know this is getting speculative at this point, but if either of those reasons have any merit, I think KU would be better off without Bolden which I don’t like typing because I’m a really big fan of his game and how he would fit in Bill Self’s offense.
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It’s truly surprising we haven’t landed a big already with how many post players we will lose. Self & the staff have been busy because they know they haven’t closed the deal on some kids yet. The pool of players has been shrinking daily.
I think its doubftul that Bolden is afraid of competition. He’s got Duke high on his list & they are going to land Giles. Obviously you can’t just assume Giles will go there but its like the worst kept secret right now. I doubt Duke is willing to take a immediate commitment from Bolden if that affected them getting Giles. Duke is also in good standing with DeLaurier another high ranked PF…
I have to ask Bolden why would you be waiting on Duke knowing your not their top top target at the position. But I get it, its Duke and they have all the powers that be right now.
A 1-2 punch of Bragg & Bolden would be incredible. You could even play them together.
Self is very high on Coleby. He’s the type of guy that Self covets so I’m assuming he’s going to be a rotation player next year regardless of who else we get. We will have to wait and see with him. I’m higher on him than most from seeing some of the Ole Miss games last year, he was very good in the games I saw. A year to develop & learn the system & push our post players in practice will be a nice bonus to this team.
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@BeddieKU23 It is surprising to me, that with our obvious need in the post area for next season, that we don’t have a commitment yet. Each the top programs seems to have at least one highly rated player in the bag - Duke, UNC, UK, MSU, Louisville, UConn, UCLA, Ohio St., Indiana.
When we talk hurdles, most of the top programs do have some hurdles. But ours sometimes seem more stark. Why? Because Self has a reputation of valuing experience.
But also, and let’s not forget the elephant in the room here – Cliff Alexander. Rightly or wrongly, it is not a stretch to suggest that top post recruits see the Cliff Alexander example and that is a big negative. Cliff was a top 5 guy whose stock completely plummeted at Kansas. Goes from top 10 draft pick, to nothing. It is the perfect negative recruiting topic. It’s all perception.
I’m in the living room of a top post recruit, and I’m selling a competing program, and Kansas comes up: “Look, I don’t know what went on with Cliff Alexander. I tend not to focus on things like that. But as a player, I would always wonder if that could be me. All coaches are different. Some coaches are more receptive to freshman mistakes, and learning. Some coaches aren’t as patient. It’s not that one is right or wrong, it’s just that one way creates more of a chance that a player might not get the minutes and exposure that a top player needs. Cliff was highly talented, and out performed other guys when he was in the game, but his minutes were lacking. Some coaches let players play though mistakes, others no so much. Again, what’s right or wrong? As you know, we realize that there is a learning curve but that the learning process is accelerated when that player gets more playing time. Particularly a top player like you.”
Cliff Alexander could be the anchor right now. We all saw Cliff generally out perform Lucas and Traylor. Yet languish much of the time behind them. There make be good “Bill Self reasons”, or we may do our best to defend Self, but I know what I saw. I saw that Cliff was just flat better. And I (and many, many other people) would have just played and committed to Cliff (which, in the end, would have been the wrong decision given eligibility issues, but that’s a different topic).
Heck, Cliff seemed to think a tweet noting how his and Oubre’s draft stock dropped under a year with Bill Self was worth favoriting. You think a top recruit doesn’t know that if we do?
Regardless of the Cliff negativity, it’s hard to see all the top guys passing on Kansas with the obvious rotation minutes available. But look what happened last season. We inked Bragg pre-Cliff implosion. Then after that? We got the last guy standing – with eligibility issues.
I still think we land Bolden. It just makes too much sense. But I am less confident.
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Cliff was dealt a raw hand and lashed out at who he could. Cliff was not very good early, but was being brought along and given more minutes. He would’ve starred down the stretch if you believe what Bill said (best player in practice after suspension). Oubre should’ve gotten more minutes early though, to me he looked better with more court time. Alexander looked better with more practice.
KU landed recruits after an over-rated Selby, surely KU will land recruits after a over-rated Alexander.
Don’t forget about the Wiggins effect. Having a budding star in the NBA will help.
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@dylans So I’m not understanding. Are you saying that the negative Cliff issues don’t have an impact? I don’t see you saying that, but I see your post essentially saying it doesn’t matter. Explaining it away.
Is there anyone that thinks that Cliff’s situation would not be a serious consideration for a top post player considering Kansas, with his future on the line?
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I’ve felt less and less confident about Bolden. Jerry Meyer seems to be the only guy holding on to the belief that its KU.
As I’ve explained before its hard for me to see him going to Duke with Giles, Delaurier & Gabriel all getting the same amount of attention from them. They will get at least 1 and likely 2 of this group.
Bama has been the darkhorse because of him being friends with Ferg, and we know Avery Johnson is using his connections to get top guys.
Kentucky already signed a high ranked PF.
We have starters minutes to give him, how hard is that to see?? The problem is unless he changes his mind he’s going to be a spring signee which puts us in the “last guy standing” situation yet again. Signing Herard could be helpful because of them playing together for years. He knows he’s far more developed than Herard at this point.
The Cliff situation is unfortunate & hopefully isn’t one of the reasons we are having such a hard time getting early commits. We did put Oubre in the league, in the first round so it wasn’t all bad. I know Kelly isn’t a post, but I think 1 guy having a tough year isn’t an indication of a trend when we’ve proven we can develop and place talent in the league. None of us know Cliff personally, but you can infer a little that he wasn’t the highest character kid or (mature). He’s now learning the hard way of what can happen if you don’t control your circle.
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@BeddieKU23 I certainly agree on the Cliff thing … there is much more good than bad with our players, to be sure.
But I’m just talking negative recruiting. What other school has had two top 5 guys in the last five years who have flamed out like Selby and Cliff? It’s just fact. Thus the fodder for negative recruiting.
Even with Oubre – what top guy would want to go through that when others would just start him and leave him to develop? Again, may have been good reasons to coach Self, but not to other coaches. Still fodder.
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I don’t think the Cliff thing will linger in our program for long (or even now). We’ve put way too many bigs in the league that clearly developed while in Lawrence. Even Cliff made strides in his few months here. We had the #1 and #3 NBA picks a couple of years ago.
I don’t know what goes on in Bolden’s mind… but I think a lot of young studs think unrealistic thoughts. They think they want to go to a blue blood program and then be completely “the man” in the program. That works for the very very top players. Guys under that, sitting in the 5 - 20 or so rankings, either have to go to a smaller program or SHARE the light (and possibly, the PT).
It might feel odd to Bolden that he is being recruited to Kansas with a herd of other bigs. At times, that situation doesn’t always feel special. The same thing is happening around him at all the blue bloods, and even non-blue bloods.
The recruiting process itself should be one of the first steps for young recruits to get a taste of manhood. When they are no longer singled out as “the man” and “the superstar” gobbling up 100% of the spotlight. From here on out for these young studs they will be sharing the light. D1 and then NBA…
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Agree on all accounts. It definitely feels like we have a negative recruiting vibe going on. The pendulum swings so fast from one end to the other. I have started to feel like the air left the building, in part to our NCAA tournament failures & other schools capitalizing on momentum .
Diallo is potentially a very important “bounce back” post recruit who can turn his 1 year stay or longer into some positive recruiting outcomes. Another top 5 kid experiencing troubles but gets past them and leads us far into the tourney or beyond. I can see that 1 player or 1 year where KU is nationally relevant past the first weekend. If Bolden is still unsigned by spring & Diallo has a great year I can see that having a big influence on his decision.
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@hem I do think it’s negative. I don’t think it’s a big deal as Cliff is an undersized low skilled big with little to no potiental at the next level. (Selby was highly skilled, but injured.) Cliff seems coachable so maybe he’ll take off somewhere, but it’s a long shot for him to have a productive NBA career.
I hope kids will take it for what it is, a couple of precautionary tales. One about leaving too early because of an over-inflated self opinion. One about leaving too early because of d.a. family members.
Most likely if I was another coach I’d say that Bill did this to these players, but I’d avoid pointing out how many suspect bigs he got into the league.
To all the sky’s falling KU won’t sign another elite recruit ever crowd: Look at the roster and tell me where the minutes are going to be easy to come by? If no one goes pro (something recruits have to consider) Mason Sr., Graham Jr., Selden Sr. Svi Jr. Greene Sr. (no perimeter minutes.) Down low Coleby Sr. Lucas Sr. Bragg So. KU needs 2-3 bigs, but even then if they shy from competetion this isn’t the place to go.
KU’s best recruiting years usually precede massive exiting classes giving ample minutes for the young prima dona’s to cling to. They also underachieve as freshmen almost always do. #1 recruiting class on a gutted roster usually equals an early March exit. Siging a top recruiting class with little minutes to offer is difficult without cheating.
Bill will sign a big or three. Hopefully it’s the right mix of top talent, emerging talent and develpemental talent. I’m thinking one year one immediate impact player, one guy who emerges late, and one we wonder if he’ll transfer. The third one is key to long term success though.
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I think the biggest key in recruiting is to maintain a proper mix every year of talent coming back with new studs. We can afford an OAD here and there, just not a team of them. I know it must be tough to accomplish this. Things happen unexpectedly, and sometimes it is just tough filling a particular slot in a given year.
I don’t think we have a lot to complain about… we may not get as many big recruits as UK or Duke. So what… They definitely appear like complete failures every year since they have teams stacked with McDs AAs (when they don’t win it all). That is a lot of pressure… and then to always deal with a team driven by youth.
I like the idea of always going after a PG that will stick it out for 4 years but also be at the top. You get that with little guys because little guys don’t tend to go high in the lottery.
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@HighEliteMajor I think there are plenty of examples (Selby,Cliff, yes, maybe even Oubre) where another coach could point to KU not being the best place for someone who believes they are a OAD. One huge counter to that is Embiid. If we are being totally honest…couldn’t we say that Self’s system probably isn’t the best for a OAD? Now for development…especially big guys, we could argue it is one of the best places to go. Which, I think, has been the backbone of many of your comments regarding OADs?
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@Hawk8086 Yes, honesty is the best policy. I’ve avoided the OAD discussion for a while. But damn right, this is a great place for bigs to come, be the focus, and develop into draft picks. I just cannot fathom why we should have any real trouble with the non-OAD dudes, though Bolden may fashion himself as that. I don’t know.
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I have thought this over very carefully.
KU should get Numbers 1-10 each recruiting season.
Duke and UK can have the rest.
Anything less, and I am going to keep bitching.
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The sad truth is that every kid in the top 50 or even 100 fancies himself as a OAD and the next Jordan, Bird or Kareem. Misguided? Yes., Correct assessment? Absolutely not. It has a lot to do with our culture where the lure of a huge payday and the adulation that comes with being an NBA starts overrides common sense. Remember the 70’s? every kid with some ability thought he was going to be the next Mohamed Ali or Joe Frazier. In more affluent circles kids want to be the next Pete Sampras or Roger Federer or Tom Watson or Tiger Woods, but the reality is that, much like in basketball and boxing, very few reach that level.
Most HS players are grossly unprepared for Division I play and some end up as busts. Many try to make the jump too quick and never make it. Close to home…Selby and Henry could have benefited from an extra year and Alexander, if circumstances permitted, would have benefited even more so. Unfortunately many athletes surround themselves with leaches that see them as their meal ticket and force them into unwise decisions. I imagine coaches fight daily an uphill battle trying to bring reality into some players unrealistic career paths.
The best solution is to adopt the baseball rules to basketball where you can go directly to the NBA but if you choose to attend college then you have to stay for 3 years. This approach allows the exceptional talent to join the League early and the rest gets a chance to prepare better for the next level…and gives College Basketball more stability. Just my thoughts on the subject and many probably disagree with me.
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The baseball model won’t work for basketball. The larger schools aren’t prepared for it. More importantly, the juco system isn’t ready for it.
In baseball, top prospects that may not quite be ready for the pros go to jucos instead of four year schools because they can leave the juco earlier than they could leave a four year school (immediately upon graduation as opposed to after 3 years). Many times, this means that a kid can play just one year of college baseball at a juco and then re-enter the draft.
So what you would see is the top 8-15 players leaving straight from high school, but many of the next tier (guys ranked between 20-40) would head to jucos where they could leave after one or two seasons. Obviously, not everyone would do this, but many would, and the talent level in D1 would plummet. As the talent level fell, both from the attrition of guys going straight to the pros, and guys going to juco, there’s a legitimate question about whether big time college basketball would even be a reasonable preparation for the NBA. There’s already an enormous gap. If you shave off even 20 or 25 of those top players, that’s a large dip in the overall talent pool.
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@JayHawkFanToo Kids in the 70s are no different than kids today. The song remains the same. It comes down to what’s popular. The chances of Golf and Tennis being more popular than Basketball and Football are very slim. A lot of kids just find tennis and golf boring. They are just not interested. It has very little to do with tax brackets, as most kids are exposed to different sports in school. Arthur Ashe, Jimmy Connors, Jack Nicklaus and Lee Trevino were great influences on youth from all walks of life back in the 70s. More kids are playing soccer than ever before. Baseball is not as popular as it once was with our youth. Again, it comes down to what’s popular.
Unfortunately a lot of kids are told they are better than what they actually are. This happens at a young age. A D-1 Scholarship to a Major University does not equate to a 10-15 year NBA Career. It is understandable, when parents, coaches, friends, and family see a young athlete dominating kids at an early age. Sometimes what should be encouragement does not necessarily come out that way. “You are really good”, becomes “You are going to be a 1st Round Pick in the NBA”, and the kid has not even made it to High School yet. Expectations placed on children is just too much pressure.
I thought I would offer my opinion on the subject. I really enjoyed reading your post and learned from it, thanks.
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I respectfully disagree, The JuCo level of play would not prepare players to the next level or give them the exposure they need, and JuCos do not have the money to “sponsor” these players either. We are talking about a small number of players that are not ready for the NBA and are not OAD material either, maybe 40-50 per year; a drop in the bucket when divided among JuCos but a significant number when looking at major programs.
I can see many going overseas, but I really don’t believe JuCo would be an option. In fact, only the Far East would be an option since Europe now develops its own players and marginal American players are not as coveted there as they once were.
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Slight disagreement. While any one can play tennis and golf, the overwhelming majority of people in the sports is from the upper socio-economic class, even when public facilities are available (limited), most is still practiced at private clubs. Kids from wealthy backgrounds are more likely to play golf, tennis , swimming and yes…lacrosse than football, basketball or baseball. Take a look at the sports played at the Ivy League and others with primarily private schools.
States like Arizona, California and primarily Florida are full of (very expensive) tennis and golf academies were younger kids are sent to hone their skills, and again, a relatively small number makes it to the pro level. At one time we dominated in both sports but now, the majority of tennis top players are East-Europeans, and most trained in Florida…go figure. Yes, there is the occasional player for a working class environment that makes it big, but the majority come form well-to-do backgrounds.
Interesting subject with lots of personal and different experiences, I am sure.
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@HighEliteMajor I agree that the Cliff bust is probably fodder for negative recruiting. Unfortunately, the best way to negate that would have been to point to Embiid and say, “Well, his draft stock sure went up from being at KU.”
Alas, we can’t really do that while Embiid has his foot in a cast.
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@DanR I think since he was picked 3rd, we can say that!
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@JayHawkFanToo I can appreciate your point. Thanks. I can acknowledge that there are plenty of academies and kids from wealthy backgrounds playing the sports you mentioned. The reason we are not dominating tennis and golf is that there just isn’t enough interest. The best athletes, regardless of income, are not interested in those particular sports. The comments I hear from most kids concerning the sports you mentioned are “boring” and “not interesting”. Unfortunately, the same can be said for baseball. Could you imagine a kid with the size and speed of LeBron James on a Tennis Court or Golf Course? That would be illegal. Again, I am of the opinion it’s not so much about income as it is interest. I have seen many tennis courts, in many different neighborhoods, but I have yet to see, kids lined up saying, “I got next”. As far as expenses go, if you can play, someone will find a way to pay. That’s just the way it works. How many great athletes end up at private schools strictly for their athletic prowess? Too many to count. Thanks for hearing me out. I don’t think we are too far apart on this issue. I think we are in agreement that we need better athletes, and then maybe we will dominate again?
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KU always gets a load of guys at Late Night. Nothing special this season. Zip.
This group actually seems less stellar than some past groups. No Wiggins.
KU recently also always has lots of inside slots to fill, because the apparent embargo keeps our quality thin inside.
If the turnout is any better than average in any regard, it most likely has to do with Harden getting the big adidas scrip.
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Duke lands Top 50 PF Javin Delaurier as expected. Has to be good news as regards to Bolden… especially with Giles the big fish for Duke.
We absolutely have to capitalize on LATE NIGHT!!!
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@BeddieKU23 very true, with the Duke commitment yesterday, and more then likely giles I STILL feel pretty confident on Bolden if we can get Bolden & Azubuike or Bolden & Herarld or Even Azubuike and Herarld I think we will be fine but like our chances with Bolden, Also saw this morning looks like the gap has been closed between us and Arizona for Josh Jackson, although it looks more of a crap shoot no more then ever with him, looks like he is still WIDE open it now shows Ariz 31% KU 23% and then Mary 15% , and Michigan St 15% and this recruiting analyst predicting Mich St, so we shall see ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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I don’t feel confident with Bolden. But Late Night can be the night we make some ground, he’s the recruit we have to make the biggest impression on at Late Night.
Hopefully the staff realizes this as well.
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I’m starting to feel like the biggest catch in our post world is Azubuike. He is the only one that has unique qualities (size and strength) that make him a possible player that becomes impossible to defend and impossible to score on or rebound over.
Bolden is gifted and I’d love to have him. He would make a great combination with Azubuike. But I feel like the rare catch in this entire class might end up being Azubuike. He has unique assets and the last guys we had with unique assets were Wiggins and Embiid. I’m not saying Udoka is a Wiggins or Embiid… but he has potential few or no other prospects have. He is a guy that would be crazy if he didn’t jump on the KU bandwagon. He needs the right match to get him started into a form of basketball that can later be adapted to the league. He needs the right match to also continue to lift his momentum upwards with the press and with NBA scouts. He needs the right match on a playbook that will help him maximize the use of his assets. There is only one school that is the right match… clearly… Kansas!
Self should approach Bolden and Azubuike as a package. Recruit these guys together. Show how important it will be for both of their careers to play together. Bolden plays finesse… Azubuike plays power… That makes a great combination where both will receive benefits by playing together.
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@drgnslayr B/R says he is goin to Florida state or something like that. I just read an article on there about all the top unsigned recruits. They are predicting KU only gets one of them. Bolden.
Do I believe that? I dont know. Recruiting isnt something I know a whole lot about.
I hope we get more than one signee for next season though cuz we are losing quite a few guys next season.
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Don’t put too much into what B/R says. They have to say something… it’s their job. Do they have inside knowledge? Doubtful.
We’ve seen too many times how many mistakes sports media makes on the recruiting trail.
Udoka… meet JoJo… yes… it is worth playing our ace in the hole in order to bring him to Lawrence!
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Udoka would be a great big to get. He needs to add skill & post moves because size won’t win every battle. That is though, the type of recruit we can excel with.
I see Florida got him on campus for a visit. We have to consider them as our biggest competition if FSU is no longer the favorite with him ATM. This could end up being a situation again where the local school beats us again.
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That assumes things remain static. If there were to be a rule change, that change would alter the landscape and I believe that juco schools would receive more help from ShoeCo for basketball.
The comparison above mentions moving towards a baseball model. In baseball, the top high school prospects follow one of three routes - straight to the pros, juco or major colleges. Those three paths are pursued in varying degrees, but typically the best players jump straight to the pros (minor leagues), the next best hedge their bets at the juco level, particularly if they didn’t get the scholarship offer they wanted, and the rest go to major colleges.
The reason this happens is because if you go the juco route, you can be drafted upon graduation, whereas if you go the major college route, it’s a three year wait. I’ve already covered the earnings difference for NBA players by comparing the careers of the #4 and #5 picks in the 1995 NBA draft. Just as a quick recap, Rasheed Wallace went 4th, Kevin Garnett went 5th. Wallace left UNC after just 2 years, turning 21 just two months before his first NBA season. Garnett went to the pros straight out of high school, turning 19 the spring before his first season. Those two years made a huge difference in the contract salaries. Both players received a huge jump in salary after their 3rd season, and basically enjoyed large contracts for the next decade. However, in 2012, at the age of 36, Garnett signed one more big contract, which he is playing out this season. In 2012, Wallace signed a small one year deal, then retired the next season as he approached his 39th birthday. Garnett will finish his career at 39 as well, but with one last big contract under his belt (and in his bank account). Yes, Garnett was a better player throughout his career than Wallace, but the fact remains that age was a significant factor in Garnett getting one last contract while Wallace retired.
I could certainly see a lot of players going to jucos (or even going to prep school for a year) rather than college so that they begin their NBA career at 18, 19 or 20 rather than 21, 22 or 23. Because the NBA caps the rookie salary scale, there is a huge incentive to get out of your rookie contract as young as possible so that you net one more big deal during your career than you would if you attended college for 3 or 4 years. That could be a $30m difference in earnings for a star. Even for a lesser player, that could be an 8 figure difference.
You say
The JuCo level of play would not prepare players to the next level or give them the exposure they need
You have to realize that this assumes that things stay the same. The level of juco play is what it is today because the best route to NBA currently is the four year school. However, if the rules change, that may also change. It won’t take much for the talent level in juco to equal or surpass the talent at four year schools. If 30 of the top 50 prospects every year either go pro or go juco, the talent level in D1 will drop significantly. Remember, a power school like KU has started the following not ever-NBA talents over the last several seasons - Naadir Tharpe, Kevin Young, Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, Russell Robinson, Christian Moody, etc. Just about every year, one of the five starters for one of the top programs in the nation is not an NBA talent, not even a potential fringe NBA player. Now, go back the last few years and eliminate the OAD players. In 2013-14, that means no Wiggins and Embiid (and maybe no Selden). Your 2013-14 starters are probably Tharpe, Selden, Greene or AWIII, Ellis and Black. That’s a huge drop off. That lineup has one NBA backup in it (Black), and maybe two potential NBA backups (Selden and Greene). That is not a very high level of play. And if Selden opts for JuCo, or decides to make the jump to the NBA, it falls even further.
A rule change means the OADs are gone. That means that this year the following players are likely not playing college basketball - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Henry Ellenson, Diamond Stone, Cheick Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Caleb Swanigan, Malik Newman, Chase Jeter, Stephen Zimmerman, Jamal Murray.
The next list, you can probably say half of them are not at D1, either because they don’t want to wait 3 years and opt for JuCo or overseas, or because they jumped to the NBA out of high school - Isaiah Briscoe, Dwayne Bacon, Jalen Brunson, PJ Dozier, Carlton Bragg, Deyonta Davis, Malachi Richardson Jalen Adams, Ray Smith, Derrick Jones, plus 2014 players Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Isaac Copeland, Melo Trimble, Chris McCullough and maybe a few others.
Imagine KU this year without Selden, Diallo, Bragg and Svi (stays overseas so that he is eligible for the NBA draft next year). That’s four of our best 8 guys. The KU rotation is Mason, Graham, Greene, Ellis, Lucas, Traylor, Vick and Mickelson because remember, we can’t just say, oh, well we get such and such to replace Diallo, because Rabb isn’t in college either. That’s a good college lineup, but that isn’t a lineup that will have NBA scouts lining up at the doors. Maybe a send a guy to check out Greene, or see if Ellis or Mickelson can be backups, or to see if Vick is an NBA guy in 3 years, but I am not scouting that group heavily if I am an NBA guy.
And that’s just taking the top layer off. If the attrition is worse than that, look out. There is a very real possibility more guys would test the waters and sign with JuCos late, or head to prep school in preparation for a jump the following year.
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@BeddieKU23 said:
Udoka would be a great big to get. He needs to add skill & post moves because size won’t win every battle. That is though, the type of recruit we can excel with.
I see Florida got him on campus for a visit. We have to consider them as our biggest competition if FSU is no longer the favorite with him ATM. This could end up being a situation again where the local school beats us again.
If you look at his crystal ball down on the bottom it’s down to Florida State and ku
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that crystal ball did really well predicting the duo of Jerreau & Gresham to Umass today when they were down to 2 schools. Tells you how much people know about nothing, just like the CB
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At least if Bolden comes to Late Night, he could be “exposed” to the aura of the place, and those electrifying videos that put the fear of God into Scot Drew…(for example).
The additional factor that may come into a young competitive athlete’s mind, especially sitting next to a bunch of fellow high-ranked recruits: “I better decide if Im serious about KU, as Self will have his pick with all these guys…maybe I want to be one of the chosen ones?”
