MAN i had no idea
-
@BeddieKU23 I certainly agree on the Cliff thing … there is much more good than bad with our players, to be sure.
But I’m just talking negative recruiting. What other school has had two top 5 guys in the last five years who have flamed out like Selby and Cliff? It’s just fact. Thus the fodder for negative recruiting.
Even with Oubre – what top guy would want to go through that when others would just start him and leave him to develop? Again, may have been good reasons to coach Self, but not to other coaches. Still fodder.
-
I don’t think the Cliff thing will linger in our program for long (or even now). We’ve put way too many bigs in the league that clearly developed while in Lawrence. Even Cliff made strides in his few months here. We had the #1 and #3 NBA picks a couple of years ago.
I don’t know what goes on in Bolden’s mind… but I think a lot of young studs think unrealistic thoughts. They think they want to go to a blue blood program and then be completely “the man” in the program. That works for the very very top players. Guys under that, sitting in the 5 - 20 or so rankings, either have to go to a smaller program or SHARE the light (and possibly, the PT).
It might feel odd to Bolden that he is being recruited to Kansas with a herd of other bigs. At times, that situation doesn’t always feel special. The same thing is happening around him at all the blue bloods, and even non-blue bloods.
The recruiting process itself should be one of the first steps for young recruits to get a taste of manhood. When they are no longer singled out as “the man” and “the superstar” gobbling up 100% of the spotlight. From here on out for these young studs they will be sharing the light. D1 and then NBA…
-
Agree on all accounts. It definitely feels like we have a negative recruiting vibe going on. The pendulum swings so fast from one end to the other. I have started to feel like the air left the building, in part to our NCAA tournament failures & other schools capitalizing on momentum .
Diallo is potentially a very important “bounce back” post recruit who can turn his 1 year stay or longer into some positive recruiting outcomes. Another top 5 kid experiencing troubles but gets past them and leads us far into the tourney or beyond. I can see that 1 player or 1 year where KU is nationally relevant past the first weekend. If Bolden is still unsigned by spring & Diallo has a great year I can see that having a big influence on his decision.
-
@hem I do think it’s negative. I don’t think it’s a big deal as Cliff is an undersized low skilled big with little to no potiental at the next level. (Selby was highly skilled, but injured.) Cliff seems coachable so maybe he’ll take off somewhere, but it’s a long shot for him to have a productive NBA career.
I hope kids will take it for what it is, a couple of precautionary tales. One about leaving too early because of an over-inflated self opinion. One about leaving too early because of d.a. family members.
Most likely if I was another coach I’d say that Bill did this to these players, but I’d avoid pointing out how many suspect bigs he got into the league.
To all the sky’s falling KU won’t sign another elite recruit ever crowd: Look at the roster and tell me where the minutes are going to be easy to come by? If no one goes pro (something recruits have to consider) Mason Sr., Graham Jr., Selden Sr. Svi Jr. Greene Sr. (no perimeter minutes.) Down low Coleby Sr. Lucas Sr. Bragg So. KU needs 2-3 bigs, but even then if they shy from competetion this isn’t the place to go.
KU’s best recruiting years usually precede massive exiting classes giving ample minutes for the young prima dona’s to cling to. They also underachieve as freshmen almost always do. #1 recruiting class on a gutted roster usually equals an early March exit. Siging a top recruiting class with little minutes to offer is difficult without cheating.
Bill will sign a big or three. Hopefully it’s the right mix of top talent, emerging talent and develpemental talent. I’m thinking one year one immediate impact player, one guy who emerges late, and one we wonder if he’ll transfer. The third one is key to long term success though.
-
I think the biggest key in recruiting is to maintain a proper mix every year of talent coming back with new studs. We can afford an OAD here and there, just not a team of them. I know it must be tough to accomplish this. Things happen unexpectedly, and sometimes it is just tough filling a particular slot in a given year.
I don’t think we have a lot to complain about… we may not get as many big recruits as UK or Duke. So what… They definitely appear like complete failures every year since they have teams stacked with McDs AAs (when they don’t win it all). That is a lot of pressure… and then to always deal with a team driven by youth.
I like the idea of always going after a PG that will stick it out for 4 years but also be at the top. You get that with little guys because little guys don’t tend to go high in the lottery.
-
@HighEliteMajor I think there are plenty of examples (Selby,Cliff, yes, maybe even Oubre) where another coach could point to KU not being the best place for someone who believes they are a OAD. One huge counter to that is Embiid. If we are being totally honest…couldn’t we say that Self’s system probably isn’t the best for a OAD? Now for development…especially big guys, we could argue it is one of the best places to go. Which, I think, has been the backbone of many of your comments regarding OADs?
-
@Hawk8086 Yes, honesty is the best policy. I’ve avoided the OAD discussion for a while. But damn right, this is a great place for bigs to come, be the focus, and develop into draft picks. I just cannot fathom why we should have any real trouble with the non-OAD dudes, though Bolden may fashion himself as that. I don’t know.
-
I have thought this over very carefully.
KU should get Numbers 1-10 each recruiting season.
Duke and UK can have the rest.
Anything less, and I am going to keep bitching.
-
The sad truth is that every kid in the top 50 or even 100 fancies himself as a OAD and the next Jordan, Bird or Kareem. Misguided? Yes., Correct assessment? Absolutely not. It has a lot to do with our culture where the lure of a huge payday and the adulation that comes with being an NBA starts overrides common sense. Remember the 70’s? every kid with some ability thought he was going to be the next Mohamed Ali or Joe Frazier. In more affluent circles kids want to be the next Pete Sampras or Roger Federer or Tom Watson or Tiger Woods, but the reality is that, much like in basketball and boxing, very few reach that level.
Most HS players are grossly unprepared for Division I play and some end up as busts. Many try to make the jump too quick and never make it. Close to home…Selby and Henry could have benefited from an extra year and Alexander, if circumstances permitted, would have benefited even more so. Unfortunately many athletes surround themselves with leaches that see them as their meal ticket and force them into unwise decisions. I imagine coaches fight daily an uphill battle trying to bring reality into some players unrealistic career paths.
The best solution is to adopt the baseball rules to basketball where you can go directly to the NBA but if you choose to attend college then you have to stay for 3 years. This approach allows the exceptional talent to join the League early and the rest gets a chance to prepare better for the next level…and gives College Basketball more stability. Just my thoughts on the subject and many probably disagree with me.
-
The baseball model won’t work for basketball. The larger schools aren’t prepared for it. More importantly, the juco system isn’t ready for it.
In baseball, top prospects that may not quite be ready for the pros go to jucos instead of four year schools because they can leave the juco earlier than they could leave a four year school (immediately upon graduation as opposed to after 3 years). Many times, this means that a kid can play just one year of college baseball at a juco and then re-enter the draft.
So what you would see is the top 8-15 players leaving straight from high school, but many of the next tier (guys ranked between 20-40) would head to jucos where they could leave after one or two seasons. Obviously, not everyone would do this, but many would, and the talent level in D1 would plummet. As the talent level fell, both from the attrition of guys going straight to the pros, and guys going to juco, there’s a legitimate question about whether big time college basketball would even be a reasonable preparation for the NBA. There’s already an enormous gap. If you shave off even 20 or 25 of those top players, that’s a large dip in the overall talent pool.
-
@JayHawkFanToo Kids in the 70s are no different than kids today. The song remains the same. It comes down to what’s popular. The chances of Golf and Tennis being more popular than Basketball and Football are very slim. A lot of kids just find tennis and golf boring. They are just not interested. It has very little to do with tax brackets, as most kids are exposed to different sports in school. Arthur Ashe, Jimmy Connors, Jack Nicklaus and Lee Trevino were great influences on youth from all walks of life back in the 70s. More kids are playing soccer than ever before. Baseball is not as popular as it once was with our youth. Again, it comes down to what’s popular.
Unfortunately a lot of kids are told they are better than what they actually are. This happens at a young age. A D-1 Scholarship to a Major University does not equate to a 10-15 year NBA Career. It is understandable, when parents, coaches, friends, and family see a young athlete dominating kids at an early age. Sometimes what should be encouragement does not necessarily come out that way. “You are really good”, becomes “You are going to be a 1st Round Pick in the NBA”, and the kid has not even made it to High School yet. Expectations placed on children is just too much pressure.
I thought I would offer my opinion on the subject. I really enjoyed reading your post and learned from it, thanks.
-
I respectfully disagree, The JuCo level of play would not prepare players to the next level or give them the exposure they need, and JuCos do not have the money to “sponsor” these players either. We are talking about a small number of players that are not ready for the NBA and are not OAD material either, maybe 40-50 per year; a drop in the bucket when divided among JuCos but a significant number when looking at major programs.
I can see many going overseas, but I really don’t believe JuCo would be an option. In fact, only the Far East would be an option since Europe now develops its own players and marginal American players are not as coveted there as they once were.
-
Slight disagreement. While any one can play tennis and golf, the overwhelming majority of people in the sports is from the upper socio-economic class, even when public facilities are available (limited), most is still practiced at private clubs. Kids from wealthy backgrounds are more likely to play golf, tennis , swimming and yes…lacrosse than football, basketball or baseball. Take a look at the sports played at the Ivy League and others with primarily private schools.
States like Arizona, California and primarily Florida are full of (very expensive) tennis and golf academies were younger kids are sent to hone their skills, and again, a relatively small number makes it to the pro level. At one time we dominated in both sports but now, the majority of tennis top players are East-Europeans, and most trained in Florida…go figure. Yes, there is the occasional player for a working class environment that makes it big, but the majority come form well-to-do backgrounds.
Interesting subject with lots of personal and different experiences, I am sure.
-
@HighEliteMajor I agree that the Cliff bust is probably fodder for negative recruiting. Unfortunately, the best way to negate that would have been to point to Embiid and say, “Well, his draft stock sure went up from being at KU.”
Alas, we can’t really do that while Embiid has his foot in a cast.
-
@DanR I think since he was picked 3rd, we can say that!
-
@JayHawkFanToo I can appreciate your point. Thanks. I can acknowledge that there are plenty of academies and kids from wealthy backgrounds playing the sports you mentioned. The reason we are not dominating tennis and golf is that there just isn’t enough interest. The best athletes, regardless of income, are not interested in those particular sports. The comments I hear from most kids concerning the sports you mentioned are “boring” and “not interesting”. Unfortunately, the same can be said for baseball. Could you imagine a kid with the size and speed of LeBron James on a Tennis Court or Golf Course? That would be illegal. Again, I am of the opinion it’s not so much about income as it is interest. I have seen many tennis courts, in many different neighborhoods, but I have yet to see, kids lined up saying, “I got next”. As far as expenses go, if you can play, someone will find a way to pay. That’s just the way it works. How many great athletes end up at private schools strictly for their athletic prowess? Too many to count. Thanks for hearing me out. I don’t think we are too far apart on this issue. I think we are in agreement that we need better athletes, and then maybe we will dominate again?
-
KU always gets a load of guys at Late Night. Nothing special this season. Zip.
This group actually seems less stellar than some past groups. No Wiggins.
KU recently also always has lots of inside slots to fill, because the apparent embargo keeps our quality thin inside.
If the turnout is any better than average in any regard, it most likely has to do with Harden getting the big adidas scrip.
-
Duke lands Top 50 PF Javin Delaurier as expected. Has to be good news as regards to Bolden… especially with Giles the big fish for Duke.
We absolutely have to capitalize on LATE NIGHT!!!
-
@BeddieKU23 very true, with the Duke commitment yesterday, and more then likely giles I STILL feel pretty confident on Bolden if we can get Bolden & Azubuike or Bolden & Herarld or Even Azubuike and Herarld I think we will be fine but like our chances with Bolden, Also saw this morning looks like the gap has been closed between us and Arizona for Josh Jackson, although it looks more of a crap shoot no more then ever with him, looks like he is still WIDE open it now shows Ariz 31% KU 23% and then Mary 15% , and Michigan St 15% and this recruiting analyst predicting Mich St, so we shall see ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
-
I don’t feel confident with Bolden. But Late Night can be the night we make some ground, he’s the recruit we have to make the biggest impression on at Late Night.
Hopefully the staff realizes this as well.
-
I’m starting to feel like the biggest catch in our post world is Azubuike. He is the only one that has unique qualities (size and strength) that make him a possible player that becomes impossible to defend and impossible to score on or rebound over.
Bolden is gifted and I’d love to have him. He would make a great combination with Azubuike. But I feel like the rare catch in this entire class might end up being Azubuike. He has unique assets and the last guys we had with unique assets were Wiggins and Embiid. I’m not saying Udoka is a Wiggins or Embiid… but he has potential few or no other prospects have. He is a guy that would be crazy if he didn’t jump on the KU bandwagon. He needs the right match to get him started into a form of basketball that can later be adapted to the league. He needs the right match to also continue to lift his momentum upwards with the press and with NBA scouts. He needs the right match on a playbook that will help him maximize the use of his assets. There is only one school that is the right match… clearly… Kansas!
Self should approach Bolden and Azubuike as a package. Recruit these guys together. Show how important it will be for both of their careers to play together. Bolden plays finesse… Azubuike plays power… That makes a great combination where both will receive benefits by playing together.
-
@drgnslayr B/R says he is goin to Florida state or something like that. I just read an article on there about all the top unsigned recruits. They are predicting KU only gets one of them. Bolden.
Do I believe that? I dont know. Recruiting isnt something I know a whole lot about.
I hope we get more than one signee for next season though cuz we are losing quite a few guys next season.
-
Don’t put too much into what B/R says. They have to say something… it’s their job. Do they have inside knowledge? Doubtful.
We’ve seen too many times how many mistakes sports media makes on the recruiting trail.
Udoka… meet JoJo… yes… it is worth playing our ace in the hole in order to bring him to Lawrence!
-
Udoka would be a great big to get. He needs to add skill & post moves because size won’t win every battle. That is though, the type of recruit we can excel with.
I see Florida got him on campus for a visit. We have to consider them as our biggest competition if FSU is no longer the favorite with him ATM. This could end up being a situation again where the local school beats us again.
-
That assumes things remain static. If there were to be a rule change, that change would alter the landscape and I believe that juco schools would receive more help from ShoeCo for basketball.
The comparison above mentions moving towards a baseball model. In baseball, the top high school prospects follow one of three routes - straight to the pros, juco or major colleges. Those three paths are pursued in varying degrees, but typically the best players jump straight to the pros (minor leagues), the next best hedge their bets at the juco level, particularly if they didn’t get the scholarship offer they wanted, and the rest go to major colleges.
The reason this happens is because if you go the juco route, you can be drafted upon graduation, whereas if you go the major college route, it’s a three year wait. I’ve already covered the earnings difference for NBA players by comparing the careers of the #4 and #5 picks in the 1995 NBA draft. Just as a quick recap, Rasheed Wallace went 4th, Kevin Garnett went 5th. Wallace left UNC after just 2 years, turning 21 just two months before his first NBA season. Garnett went to the pros straight out of high school, turning 19 the spring before his first season. Those two years made a huge difference in the contract salaries. Both players received a huge jump in salary after their 3rd season, and basically enjoyed large contracts for the next decade. However, in 2012, at the age of 36, Garnett signed one more big contract, which he is playing out this season. In 2012, Wallace signed a small one year deal, then retired the next season as he approached his 39th birthday. Garnett will finish his career at 39 as well, but with one last big contract under his belt (and in his bank account). Yes, Garnett was a better player throughout his career than Wallace, but the fact remains that age was a significant factor in Garnett getting one last contract while Wallace retired.
I could certainly see a lot of players going to jucos (or even going to prep school for a year) rather than college so that they begin their NBA career at 18, 19 or 20 rather than 21, 22 or 23. Because the NBA caps the rookie salary scale, there is a huge incentive to get out of your rookie contract as young as possible so that you net one more big deal during your career than you would if you attended college for 3 or 4 years. That could be a $30m difference in earnings for a star. Even for a lesser player, that could be an 8 figure difference.
You say
The JuCo level of play would not prepare players to the next level or give them the exposure they need
You have to realize that this assumes that things stay the same. The level of juco play is what it is today because the best route to NBA currently is the four year school. However, if the rules change, that may also change. It won’t take much for the talent level in juco to equal or surpass the talent at four year schools. If 30 of the top 50 prospects every year either go pro or go juco, the talent level in D1 will drop significantly. Remember, a power school like KU has started the following not ever-NBA talents over the last several seasons - Naadir Tharpe, Kevin Young, Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, Russell Robinson, Christian Moody, etc. Just about every year, one of the five starters for one of the top programs in the nation is not an NBA talent, not even a potential fringe NBA player. Now, go back the last few years and eliminate the OAD players. In 2013-14, that means no Wiggins and Embiid (and maybe no Selden). Your 2013-14 starters are probably Tharpe, Selden, Greene or AWIII, Ellis and Black. That’s a huge drop off. That lineup has one NBA backup in it (Black), and maybe two potential NBA backups (Selden and Greene). That is not a very high level of play. And if Selden opts for JuCo, or decides to make the jump to the NBA, it falls even further.
A rule change means the OADs are gone. That means that this year the following players are likely not playing college basketball - Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Henry Ellenson, Diamond Stone, Cheick Diallo, Ivan Rabb, Caleb Swanigan, Malik Newman, Chase Jeter, Stephen Zimmerman, Jamal Murray.
The next list, you can probably say half of them are not at D1, either because they don’t want to wait 3 years and opt for JuCo or overseas, or because they jumped to the NBA out of high school - Isaiah Briscoe, Dwayne Bacon, Jalen Brunson, PJ Dozier, Carlton Bragg, Deyonta Davis, Malachi Richardson Jalen Adams, Ray Smith, Derrick Jones, plus 2014 players Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, Isaac Copeland, Melo Trimble, Chris McCullough and maybe a few others.
Imagine KU this year without Selden, Diallo, Bragg and Svi (stays overseas so that he is eligible for the NBA draft next year). That’s four of our best 8 guys. The KU rotation is Mason, Graham, Greene, Ellis, Lucas, Traylor, Vick and Mickelson because remember, we can’t just say, oh, well we get such and such to replace Diallo, because Rabb isn’t in college either. That’s a good college lineup, but that isn’t a lineup that will have NBA scouts lining up at the doors. Maybe a send a guy to check out Greene, or see if Ellis or Mickelson can be backups, or to see if Vick is an NBA guy in 3 years, but I am not scouting that group heavily if I am an NBA guy.
And that’s just taking the top layer off. If the attrition is worse than that, look out. There is a very real possibility more guys would test the waters and sign with JuCos late, or head to prep school in preparation for a jump the following year.
-
@BeddieKU23 said:
Udoka would be a great big to get. He needs to add skill & post moves because size won’t win every battle. That is though, the type of recruit we can excel with.
I see Florida got him on campus for a visit. We have to consider them as our biggest competition if FSU is no longer the favorite with him ATM. This could end up being a situation again where the local school beats us again.
If you look at his crystal ball down on the bottom it’s down to Florida State and ku
-
that crystal ball did really well predicting the duo of Jerreau & Gresham to Umass today when they were down to 2 schools. Tells you how much people know about nothing, just like the CB
-
At least if Bolden comes to Late Night, he could be “exposed” to the aura of the place, and those electrifying videos that put the fear of God into Scot Drew…(for example).
The additional factor that may come into a young competitive athlete’s mind, especially sitting next to a bunch of fellow high-ranked recruits: “I better decide if Im serious about KU, as Self will have his pick with all these guys…maybe I want to be one of the chosen ones?”
-
I still don’t buy it. there us just no market for JuCo Sports. Major schools have a large number of fans but JuCos don’t. Many if not most students at JuCo end up at a 4 year college and that is the school/program they follow thereafter. JuCo basketball is just a step above intramural.
Also, realistically how many players with NBA aspirations are candidates to go to the league after waiting 1 year in Juco? Maybe 10-15? …and when you consider that the real talent would be able to jump to the NBA right after HS, the the number is even smaller.That is not even 1 player per JuCo conference. Some Lucky JuCos get a few games broadcast on the local public access channel and maybe streamed on the school website while major programs get essentially all of their games on TV; do you really think that one OAD player per conference would change that? I don’t think so. Again. you mention several players from KU possibly doing that, and when you consider other programs, that is sh@t load of players, but you forget that the NBA drafts only 60 players every year and at least one third are now foreign and of those, maybe 40 stay in the League.
Last, Baseball players can get contract and get paid to play in the minors until they are ready to move up. Basketball players can play overseas or in the Development League for money…why would they choose to go to JuCo? If I were a HS player that is a year or two away from the NBA, I would either go overseas and get paid, join the Development League or the new Vegas based Professional League and get paid, or go to a Major program for a year and then play overseas for a couple of years until I am eligible (and ready) to join the NBA…JuCo would not be an option, but that is just me and others might go a different route.
-
I think many athletes fit the comfort zone of Jucos better than D1. I’m pretty sure about all of us in here knew (or know) someone who played Juco ball. If a player is around this level of play Juco ball gives them an opportunity to earn PT, be on scholarship, and work towards a diploma (perhaps finishing at a bigger school).
I have several old buddies that went the Juco route. A couple ended up playing D1 after two years. Obviously, they were limited by the offers they received, but I also think they preferred the small feel of a Juco and weren’t ready to leap into D1 and a major 4-yr program right out of HS.
I believe our football team has a RB that was a Juco star.
You hit on a key element… Juco teams just don’t get the visibility. It will take something very very special in order for a Juco player to receive big time attention. Not saying it couldn’t happen… but unlikely. And if they can draw big time attention playing Juco, they can probably attract better attention (and more often) playing for a D1 school.
Pretty hard to compare basketball with baseball. There seems to be almost limitless opportunities to make it in baseball. Players have literally almost come back from the grave to getting quickly picked up by a AA team, and then there is a path all the way up to the majors. There are door-opening tryouts. Even the NFL has been known to pick up a few players via the tryout system. There are probably 10,000 guys out there who train for NFL tryouts… now called “Regional Scouting Combines.” About all you need is $275. If you want a real team tryout, you’ll need an agent who can get you on the list.
Anyone (yes, anyone) can try out for the NFL
Oh, shucks! I missed out on NBA D-League tryouts again!
Think you have what it takes to play with the pros?
What about guys who think they HAD what it takes? Can’t they start a “Legacy League” for knee-wasted old wrecks like myself? I would be happy to do it for free on the hopes I’ll pick up sponsorship from Bengay or Tiger Balm… mmmmm… maybe Icy Hot?!
-
I fully understand that there are many student-athletes that fit well in the JuCo system and for most , that is as high as they get; some move to a 4 year college and a few even made to the NBA…however, we are talking here about potential OAD basketball players…I just don’t see that level of athlete ever considering the JuCo route.
-
@JayHawkFanToo come on down and go to a Jayhawk conference bb or fb game. If you think they are just above intramurals, you need to check them out. I don’t know about jccc.
-
Sorry… I missed that.
Yes… I think it highly unlikely an OAD talent would consider Juco. It may have happened or will happen… maybe once or twice. But the whole idea of young “perceived” talent is that they run as fast as they can… (not down the basketball court, but to the NBA draft!)
I think if one of these guys makes that move, NBA scouts will wonder what is wrong with him.
