Bubble Watch
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@Kcmatt7 Really just depends on who’s in the bracket. Definitely been years where I’d rather play a 7-10 winner rather than a 8-9 winner.
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@kjayhawks i think statistically taking the 1 seed is a no brainer. About a 40% of 1 seeds make the FF.
Only about 20% of 2 seeds do.
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Yes… I’m okay if we just come out and play even with them for a while until we get them figured out eventually… but one of those horrendous starts where we go down 20 or so won’t work tonight!
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I’d take a 1-seed (usually)… but what matters most to me is who is in our bracket. We had a good bracket last year and caught some breaks with upsets and teams suffering with hurt players.
Luck plays a huge part in March… of course, we control our own destination but same is said for all teams.
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NCAA seems to like placing a blue blood at the 8 seed, much like UNC last year. I think they like the spicy 2nd round matchup of a 1 seed against a blue blood.
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@Kcmatt7 that is true but we have ran into some under seeded 10s before too. UNI had 30 wins and had zero logical reason to be lower than 6. They ranked 24th coming into the tournament.
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I’m staring to dislike the net rankings, they have St Mary’s whom plays in a garbage conference ahead of us currently while they have 2 quad 1 wins and 3 total games. We have more of both in the last 10 days.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
I’m staring to dislike the net rankings, they have St Mary’s whom plays in a garbage conference ahead of us currently while they have 2 quad 1 wins and 3 total games. We have more of both in the last 10 days.
NET ranking places way too much emphasis on margin of victory…
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NET is known to be pretty bad historically.
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@kjayhawks It’s nice you have to go back that far to throw that dig in.
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@BShark said in Bubble Watch:
NET is known to be pretty bad historically.
RPI was too good- they wanted something with fuzzy math.
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In all fairness - Kenpom ALSO has St. Mary’s ahead of KU.
I don’t feel like NET ruins the tournament committee seeding process, so I don’t really care. It is only one factor, and really meant as a tie breaker from what I can tell. I.e. UNC getting in over UK because UK lost to a Quad 4 team.
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I sure hope St Mary’s is either a 4 or a 5 seed in our bracket.
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@Jethro for sure just win and it don’t matter is what I say lol
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We have a DOUBLE BUBBLE.
Kentucky is in Starkville tonight in what is a must win game for both teams. Joey Buckets has MSU IN and UK OUT right now…
MSU is favored by 3. This MSU team is riding a 5 game winning streak and is much better than their 5-7 conference record. Kentucky just looks broken at the moment. One team feels like it is playing to get in, and the other is trying to stop the bleeding.
My brain tells me that Kentucky is going to snap out of it and go on a long win streak to finish the season. But I just don’t think they have guys that can guard well enough to do it. Cal refuses to make an adjustment on the way UK defends the pick and roll, and thus they continue to give up easy buckets at a high rate.
Should be a fun one to watch. One with a “March Madness” vibe to it already, imo.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Bubble Watch:
We have a DOUBLE BUBBLE.
Kentucky is in Starkville tonight in what is a must win game for both teams. Joey Buckets has MSU IN and UK OUT right now…
MSU is favored by 3. This MSU team is riding a 5 game winning streak and is much better than their 5-7 conference record. Kentucky just looks broken at the moment. One team feels like it is playing to get in, and the other is trying to stop the bleeding.
My brain tells me that Kentucky is going to snap out of it and go on a long win streak to finish the season. But I just don’t think they have guys that can guard well enough to do it. Cal refuses to make an adjustment on the way UK defends the pick and roll, and thus they continue to give up easy buckets at a high rate.
Should be a fun one to watch. One with a “March Madness” vibe to it already, imo.
I think alot of their problem is to - - it’s I remember when it was me – me - -me, all now about one on one – no team play just more give me the ball and let me show my moves - -most of those guys worried abut NBA 7 not the School/College. - -Kentucky just a lay over.- -Cal has put many in the NBA - -so their thinkng is take the year develop some screw the school , don’t even want to unpack their bags
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@Kcmatt7 Make or break stretch for UK, not even kidding.
After the MSU roadie they have Tennessee in Rupp, at Florida, Auburn in Rupp. Gotta think they need to go 2-2 there.
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@Kcmatt7 We’re all Bulldogs tonite. I admit I enjoy silently trolling Rump Rafters when they struggle and then lose. It’s a like a car wreck- not fun for them but you want to see how smashed up the cars are, so you rubber neck.
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@jayballer67 When you recruit to the NBA, these are the results you get. In 2015, they were 38-0 and got beat in the FF by Wisky. They had 7 future NBA players on that team. How many do they have this year? I think when Dook stepped in and demanded half the action from Nike, Coach Squid’s shelf life ended. And Tucky is left with arguably the worst x and o coach in the history of the game.
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@BShark said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 Make or break stretch for UK, not even kidding.
After the MSU roadie they have Tennessee in Rupp, at Florida, Auburn in Rupp. Gotta think they need to go 2-2 there.
I think that is probably accurate… I think they need 4 wins these last 7 games to still have a hope. Anything less and I have to think they’re out.
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@BShark said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 Make or break stretch for UK, not even kidding.
After the MSU roadie they have Tennessee in Rupp, at Florida, Auburn in Rupp. Gotta think they need to go 2-2 there.
They probably need to go 5-1 realistically because they only have 1 Quad 1 win so far and they have a Quad 4 loss. They need Quad 1 wins and have 4 of those games left in their final 6. Tennessee, @Florida, Auburn, and @Arkansas so realistically Kentucky needs to go 3-1 in those games to help their NET ranking while also taking care of MSU and Vandy.
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@Jethro said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 We’re all Bulldogs tonite. I admit I enjoy silently trolling Rump Rafters when they struggle and then lose. It’s a like a car wreck- not fun for them but you want to see how smashed up the cars are, so you rubber neck.
Ha , you should see the K/State boards today - -OMG turn coats
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Discord in Blue Hell (read comments):
"Calllikeiseeit
2/12/23, 3:33 PM
Whatabatism only works for idiots. Duke sucks because they lost their career coach, UNC also sucks because they lost their career coach, us and Syracuse suck because we still have ours."
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@jayballer67 said in Bubble Watch:
@Jethro said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 We’re all Bulldogs tonite. I admit I enjoy silently trolling Rump Rafters when they struggle and then lose. It’s a like a car wreck- not fun for them but you want to see how smashed up the cars are, so you rubber neck.
Ha , you should see the K/State boards today - -OMG turn coats
I’ve seen stuff like that, too. Freaking ingrates. Johnson’s layoff for 2 years is biting him in the butt, and Nowell’s lucky streak finally ran out. You gotta give them credit- they made it to the top 10 and actually beat us before it all fell apart… like I told them it would. They got to imagine what it would be like to be a KU fan for a few weeks, and now reality has pulverized them into a surly mood. Run off the coach? I say…run off the fans! And the Frans, too.
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@drgnslayr You really can see how good of a coach K was after watching this crap show. (Always knew Roy was legit!)
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Like so many UK games this season, they look like the better team. Yet they make dumb enough plays to keep the other team in the game
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I watch most of UKs games… I watch a lot of D1.
They have ZERO discipline. Sometimes I think the team only reacts when Tshiebwe screams at them… (he should talk, lol). They completely lack leadership. The only thing that ever bails them out is 1-on-1 play.
There are a few knowledgeable Kentucky fans and they will post something intelligent… then they get smacked down by the single-cell herd.
Makes me really appreciate the quality of our group here!
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@drgnslayr said in Bubble Watch:
I watch most of UKs games… I watch a lot of D1.
They have ZERO discipline. Sometimes I think the team only reacts when Tshiebwe screams at them… (he should talk, lol). They completely lack leadership. The only thing that ever bails them out is 1-on-1 play.
There are a few knowledgeable Kentucky fans and they will post something intelligent… then they get smacked down by the single-cell herd.
Makes me really appreciate the quality of our group here!
I would say Cal’s belief in Wheeler was the detriment to this team. Hard to win without a PG who is a leader.
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@dylans said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr You really can see how good of a coach K was after watching this crap show. (Always knew Roy was legit!)
I mean, you don’t win 5 national titles in basically 3 different eras of college basketball by accident. Coach K knew how to adapt with the times in his recruiting and won titles when it was almost unheard of for anyone to leave before their junior season, he won in the era of players skipping college and he won in the OAD era.
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@drgnslayr I truly think Coach K, Roy Williams and Bill Self are all top 5 all time coaches. Jimmy B at Syracuse looks like a guy that got lucky one time we couldn’t make free throws and he had Melo.
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UK escapes. Got lucky on a no-call travel with 8 seconds left to save them.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr I truly think Coach K, Roy Williams and Bill Self are all top 5 all time coaches. Jimmy B at Syracuse looks like a guy that got lucky one time we couldn’t make free throws and he had Melo.
From UNI to Syracuse- seems like you’re stuck in a time warp. Do you remember what happened last year? Seriously though, I detest booger picking Boeheim. Not on the same level at all with Coach Self.
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Self is an innovator. Always has been. Not many coaches are.
He’s earned some fame for his chop offense (which we still use sometimes in its pure form or a hybrid version), and also his hi-lo (with 2 post players), which is now become a relic because of how much college basketball has changed. He has adapted this to be something possible with only one post player and the focus on every position is to get several feeds into the post during the possession.
Now his focus is the 4-guard offense and how it has maximized the use of what Self calls “the utility guard” which currently means a player from 6’4" to 6’8" with good handles, strength, and shooting prowess from deep to finishing at the rim. His newest jingle is “positionless basketball.”
What surprises me about Self… if you let him describe himself and his approach with only one word he would say “defense” though most of his innovation is on the offense side of the ball.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he innovates more on D and what we did at OSU and how these guys played the gaps for steals. There are techniques that help increase the chances of steals and create confusion for offenses.
Self should write books on the game!
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I’m rambling now… someone should stop me! lol
Remember preseason? What the heck? KJ Adams is our starting center? Can’t last… right? How many of us thought he would continue to earn so many minutes?
Self innovated around KJ’s speed, good hands, and soft touch. Center corridor pick and rolls have made KJ a consistent double-figure scorer. Now we can apply that to some degree with Udeh, but mostly lob slams.
If I want to forecast ahead and how I see Self innovating moving forward it is with his approach to an offensive attack on the center corridor. This started a few years ago with players like CB and Och, and no one has been better at it than JWil. It’s the “curl drive” to the rim as these players cut perpendicular to the rim from around the FT line then curl to the rim as they attempt to get their shoulders past the defense. Notice how often Self talks about getting shoulders past the defense (on both sides of the ball).
I think he is helping with Gradey’s development to become a multi-threat scorer. Because of his quick shot and elevation (and effectiveness), that means he has to be guarded tightly on his treys. That means defenders are vulnerable to head/body/ball fakes to draw fouls on the trey line, quick moves to create wide-open scoring space, and a host of possible drivebys to the rim. It’s great when Gradey fights hard away from the ball to get open, but it’s not his only option. He should be able to be a major threat even when a guy is in his grill.
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Keep em coming! Ramble on…
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@drgnslayr I’d add that we still haven’t seen a ton of defensive wrinkles this year as we often have in the past. How many times have we switched to a zone? Any box and 1? Or my favorite Bill self special, the triangle and two?
He’s certainly done some innovation and reinventing on the defensive side of the ball as well. We switch 5 (a thing I don’t see many other coaches doing). It seems like as you pointed out there are certain games where there’s a bigger emphasis on getting into the passing lanes. He’s also really mixed it up with bringing doubles or not against post feeds. Some determined by personnel. But when those doubles come and where they come from have also been interesting to watch. I’ve also like some small adjustments this team seems to be making within the switch five system. The communication is getting a little better to prevent the worst type of match ups with say Juan or Joe buried behind a 6-10 monster. They’ve been switching on the screen and then switching away from the ball to get one of our bigger guards into the post. Doesn’t happen all the time but something to watch. I think these situations could be contributing to the players playing on the gaps as you mentioned. Guys like Kevin and Jalen are being asked to really anticipate what’s happening and help the helpers helper type stuff. As this progresses I can see our defense really turning it up to end the year as those guys get into the passing lanes and really get a good scout on opposing teams down the stretch.
In my never coached anything more than 7th grade girls basketball mind wonder if there isn’t some box and 1 type defense that could highlight Kevin’s ridiculous anticipation ability. Like he’d be the one outside of the box but his job is just to figure out what the other teams plan is and blow it up. I know it’s not really feasible but I’d love to see what he could do in a freelance type situation.
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Good stuff!
John Stockton and Steph Curry are two great examples of guys who know how to steal. They both talk about running deception and also hiding.
They run deception by appearing to be going in one direction away from the passing lane then go towards the passing lane. It’s a combination of deception and anticipation.
Also, they know how to hide behind other players from the passer. This gets into many things… fast-twitch reflexes are a big deal. They pull the same trick that football defensive backs use. They watch the face of the receiver and can tell when the ball has been thrown!
I don’t know what I would do with my life if I didn’t have sports!
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“Refuse to lose!”
Also complaining about how hot their opposition shoots FTs. Injuries? He should try playing in the Big12 with injuries.
“Planet earth to John Calipari… your pizza is ready!”
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@benshawks08 said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr I’d add that we still haven’t seen a ton of defensive wrinkles this year as we often have in the past. How many times have we switched to a zone? Any box and 1? Or my favorite Bill self special, the triangle and two?
He’s certainly done some innovation and reinventing on the defensive side of the ball as well. We switch 5 (a thing I don’t see many other coaches doing). It seems like as you pointed out there are certain games where there’s a bigger emphasis on getting into the passing lanes. He’s also really mixed it up with bringing doubles or not against post feeds. Some determined by personnel. But when those doubles come and where they come from have also been interesting to watch. I’ve also like some small adjustments this team seems to be making within the switch five system. The communication is getting a little better to prevent the worst type of match ups with say Juan or Joe buried behind a 6-10 monster. They’ve been switching on the screen and then switching away from the ball to get one of our bigger guards into the post. Doesn’t happen all the time but something to watch. I think these situations could be contributing to the players playing on the gaps as you mentioned. Guys like Kevin and Jalen are being asked to really anticipate what’s happening and help the helpers helper type stuff. As this progresses I can see our defense really turning it up to end the year as those guys get into the passing lanes and really get a good scout on opposing teams down the stretch.
In my never coached anything more than 7th grade girls basketball mind wonder if there isn’t some box and 1 type defense that could highlight Kevin’s ridiculous anticipation ability. Like he’d be the one outside of the box but his job is just to figure out what the other teams plan is and blow it up. I know it’s not really feasible but I’d love to see what he could do in a freelance type situation.
Self doesn’t really break out the gimmick defenses during the regular season too often. Maybe the occasional 2-3 because of foul issues, but he usually saves those for the tournament.
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@benshawks08 said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr I’d add that we still haven’t seen a ton of defensive wrinkles this year as we often have in the past. How many times have we switched to a zone? Any box and 1? Or my favorite Bill self special, the triangle and two?
He’s certainly done some innovation and reinventing on the defensive side of the ball as well. We switch 5 (a thing I don’t see many other coaches doing). It seems like as you pointed out there are certain games where there’s a bigger emphasis on getting into the passing lanes. He’s also really mixed it up with bringing doubles or not against post feeds. Some determined by personnel. But when those doubles come and where they come from have also been interesting to watch. I’ve also like some small adjustments this team seems to be making within the switch five system. The communication is getting a little better to prevent the worst type of match ups with say Juan or Joe buried behind a 6-10 monster. They’ve been switching on the screen and then switching away from the ball to get one of our bigger guards into the post. Doesn’t happen all the time but something to watch. I think these situations could be contributing to the players playing on the gaps as you mentioned. Guys like Kevin and Jalen are being asked to really anticipate what’s happening and help the helpers helper type stuff. As this progresses I can see our defense really turning it up to end the year as those guys get into the passing lanes and really get a good scout on opposing teams down the stretch.
In my never coached anything more than 7th grade girls basketball mind wonder if there isn’t some box and 1 type defense that could highlight Kevin’s ridiculous anticipation ability. Like he’d be the one outside of the box but his job is just to figure out what the other teams plan is and blow it up. I know it’s not really feasible but I’d love to see what he could do in a freelance type situation.
He only runs the junk defenses when the regular defense doesn’t work.
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Defenses are harder to see change in than offensive sets. I’m sure there are tons of little tweaks BS makes game to game and year to year. Unfortunately I am not enlightened as to what they are. Seems to be mostly spacing and switching as the biggest differences. Bill is good at teaching the guys how to help on defense as well.
I was half expecting a box and 1 in the second half of the OSU game, but other defensive changes shut Bryce down.
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I think… most of the time, Self would rather challenge his players to step up and guard instead of flipping to gimmicks. And that makes sense… don’t bail out the players who aren’t doing what they should be doing by enabling them to never clean up their act.
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@dylans said in Bubble Watch:
Defenses are harder to see change in than offensive sets. I’m sure there are tons of little tweaks BS makes game to game and year to year. Unfortunately I am not enlightened as to what they are. Seems to be mostly spacing and switching as the biggest differences. Bill is good at teaching the guys how to help on defense as well.
I was half expecting a box and 1 in the second half of the OSU game, but other defensive changes shut Bryce down.
The majority of the tweaks to his man defense are going to involve when to switch, going over or under screens, crashing the glass or leaking out on rebounds and stuff like that which is always going to be personnel amd match up dependent.
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Go Vols
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May have jinxed the vols could be the win that get UK in
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
May have jinxed the vols could be the win that get UK in
UK would still have plenty of work to do to get in. This would only be their second Quad 1 win this year with the other being their first win over Tennessee in Knoxville.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 they can’t lose out for sure but I bet they are project in after today.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
@Texas-Hawk-10 they can’t lose out for sure but I bet they are project in after today.
They’re already projected in on most brackets either as a last 4 in or last 4 byes before today. If they hold on, it’ll be a big win resume boost to have a season sweep of a potential 1-2 seed, but they still need to win 2 of 3 against Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas along with at least 1 SEC Tournament win to feel safe about being in because they currently don’t have the Quad 1 wins or NET ranking to feel good about anything right now.
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What did everyone think of the 16 team release today? I really hope we can get the Midwest.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
What did everyone think of the 16 team release today? I really hope we can get the Midwest.
It’s outdated and meaningless. In one day.
