End game failure...
-
@drgnslayr Apparently I don’t know anything about basketball. Is there a reason, that with a 3 point lead and …5 seconds to go, we didn’t foul someone?
That three point shot was literally one inch from beating us.
-
@nuleafjhawk tying us, I would have called the same thing, for the same reasons, chance for offensive board off the miss. Like counting on our D.
-
@nuleafjhawk It’s a loophole that is clearly the smart strategy but I am of the opinion that Self views it as just that. A loophole, a cheat code, not really a “basketball” play. At this point I would guess Self would do it if a championship were on the line but in a regular season game, he still wants his players to grow tougher and not rely on a gimmick. It seems like a macho thing which like is the case with most macho things, means it puts extra stress on you for no real good reason. But that is not the failure I think @drgnslayr is referencing. That failure would be the inability to get even a decent shot in the last 3 minutes and struggling to inbound the ball against pressure.
Using and breaking pressure seems to be a pretty big blind spot for Self teams as of late. I seem to remember in the early days of Self I always wanted teams to pressure us because it led to easy buckets and it then made sense to me that Self would hesitate to use full court press because if his teams could score on it so easily why would he risk giving another team easy buckets. That has not been the case the last 5-7 years I feel like (I have no data to back any of this up, just vague recollections and feelings).
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Oh yes, my math skills need help. Along with all of my other skills.
-
@nuleafjhawk I think if we are all honest with ourselves overtime would not have gone well for us. So basically you were right.
-
@benshawks08 I’ll take “right” by default! I agree that overtime would not have been a happy time for us.
-
The fix:
Don’t let Agbaji inbound the ball. He also could have called timeout. Just a bad play
-
Oh great, now @nuleafjhawk has the big head!
-
Being right is not a right.
-
We had several screw ups at the end, including the jump ball call where we had 2 or 3 players right there… none knowing to call timeout (we had 2 timeouts left). Would have saved a possession.
I’m with the many, including the pros, that believe it is best to foul when up by 3. Several things have to happen for them to tie or win. Usually it means making the first FT, missing the second, getting the rebound, and getting off and making a basket. Compare that, where you have to have a chain of events happen, with just hitting one trey.
It is very clear to me that we are a bit lost at the end of close games. Think back to the Nova game. That took a complete collapse to lose that one.
So much of what needs to happen isn’t working on plays, but just teaching our guys what to do under certain situations. Boiler plate decisions. And what to be aware of. And then there are a few plays to master. Not many. Execute. And be ready for what is going to come at us.
I know one thing… I’m pointing out a few things. Doke is a monster, but why was he on the floor when we were up by 1 with the ball? Luckily, Drew didn’t know what to do. The answer was to come up and foul Doke without the ball. It would have stuck him on the line. Expect that to happen in March.
We were fortunate to win in Waco.
-
I will add after watching the replay Dotson and Garrett did a very poor job trying to get open on the pass Ochai made. Poor execution all around. We made it extremely easy to guard and for a play like that to happen. If Self doesn’t use Ochai as the in-bounder who’s left? Moss is too valuable as a FT shooter. Devon & Marcus are the ball handlers.
The jump ball was a foul but the rule book in Waco was special all game. There could be a video montage of questionable bad calls from that game and I’m not sure which would standout above them all.
I do think end of game situations has been a sticky situation for years. How do you replicate the type of pressure and intensity in practice for those moments?
-
@drgnslayr said in End game failure...:
We had several screw ups at the end, including the jump ball call where we had 2 or 3 players right there… none knowing to call timeout (we had 2 timeouts left). Would have saved a possession.
I’m with the many, including the pros, that believe it is best to foul when up by 3. Several things have to happen for them to tie or win. Usually it means making the first FT, missing the second, getting the rebound, and getting off and making a basket. Compare that, where you have to have a chain of events happen, with just hitting one trey.
It is very clear to me that we are a bit lost at the end of close games. Think back to the Nova game. That took a complete collapse to lose that one.
So much of what needs to happen isn’t working on plays, but just teaching our guys what to do under certain situations. Boiler plate decisions. And what to be aware of. And then there are a few plays to master. Not many. Execute. And be ready for what is going to come at us.
I know one thing… I’m pointing out a few things. Doke is a monster, but why was he on the floor when we were up by 1 with the ball? Luckily, Drew didn’t know what to do. The answer was to come up and foul Doke without the ball. It would have stuck him on the line. Expect that to happen in March.
We were fortunate to win in Waco.
Good points. However, Self is quite aware of the “fouling vs not fouling” calculus. Remember, against Ohio State in the Final Four, Self elected to foul Aaron Craft at the end of the game when up 3. Some have suggested that Self during the season wants his teams to “man-up” and do it the hard way by defending and getting the stop. If that’s true, I can understand it. As for Doke, we have seen in season’s past that Self wants to keep him out there in crunch time, as he did in 2018 at OU. I’m guessing he wanted to keep him out there for defensive purposes? It would be interesting if someone asked him that question.
Except for Agbaji’s turnover on the in-bounds late, I don’t think the execution was that bad. Sure, it was earlier in the year, but I don’t think there is too much to complain about for this game.
-
@BeddieKU23 said in End game failure...:
I do think end of game situations has been a sticky situation for years. How do you replicate the type of pressure and intensity in practice for those moments?
That’s why Nova takes a little time from every practice to work on end game situations.
End game play is about coaching philosophy. There are many coaches who put everything into teaching end game. They will tell you to play the best you can all game, but in the least, play good enough to be close at the end, where you can play to your potential. Jay Wright is one of those coaches. He has won some hardware.
I have to admit, it is a different teaching philosophy. Only played once for a coach who thought this way. When you haven’t played with this strategy it is an adjustment. It was a huge relief to practice enough of end game to bring that confidence into real situations. It takes quite a bit of practice to get over the hump because at first you play nervous since so much pressure is put on execution. But after a while, it’s like riding a bike and you no longer have to over-think during end game. Things come natural and at real speed. The game slows down for you, as it should and what you want at the end!
Anyone who has played for an “end game coach” can instantly tell which teams are ready and which aren’t. It’s obvious. Baylor and Kansas are not trained up in end game.
Here is something you often see in college ball, indicating a team is not coached up for end game. You never let a team roll the ball in to half court, saving time off the clock. At least glad we didn’t allow that in the Baylor game.
Wish we spent more time teaching end game. I hate the idea of getting in the tournament and losing because of an end game screw up. I find it hard to believe we could lose any other way.
“Win the last 2 minutes!”
-
It has cost us in March before. Maybe Self has forgot about our Sweet 16 game when we had a 3 point lead with a few seconds left. We let a guy named Burke dribble across half court and throw up a 30 footer. Nothing but net. We lost in overtime. If I can remember, I would think Self damn sure could. Another chance to go to the FF down the drain. STUPIDITY!!!
-
@Big-Clyde52 said in End game failure...:
It has cost us in March before. Maybe Self has forgot about our Sweet 16 game when we had a 3 point lead with a few seconds left. We let a guy named Burke dribble across half court and throw up a 30 footer. Nothing but net. We lost in overtime. If I can remember, I would think Self damn sure could. Another chance to go to the FF down the drain. STUPIDITY!!!
Well, there was actually a whole lot more that went into that loss than just Burke’s shot. EJ’s pass to nobody in the backcourt and the ten second violation were completely avoidable. If those don’t happen, we win. Simple as that.
-
@HawkChamp Have to agree with your final statement. If we had controlled that in-bounds pass, no 3 pointer would have gone in; we would have most likely been fouled and hopefully had hit the free throws, which would have made a much nicer lead of 5 or 6.
I would guess that for the few end-game situations that have been brought up that there have been many more handled very favorably.
-
We didn’t foul up Waco because Baylor is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Maybe he makes the first, intentionally misses the second, Baylor gets the board, and maybe a tip-in for the tie or kick out for the win. The data say fouling makes it more likely you win and more likely you lose in regulation, not fouling gives you a better chance at OT. Beyond that it’s all context dependent.
-
@FarmerJayhawk said in End game failure...:
We didn’t foul up Waco because Baylor is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Maybe he makes the first, intentionally misses the second, Baylor gets the board, and maybe a tip-in for the tie or kick out for the win. The data say fouling makes it more likely you win and more likely you lose in regulation, not fouling gives you a better chance at OT. Beyond that it’s all context dependent.
We didn’t foul against Baylor because that’s never been Self’s philosophy. This debate happens every time KU is in that situation because Self never fouls up 3 on a final possession and people always debate it.
-
@Texas-Hawk-10 I’d love to see some stats (they probably don’t exist) on how that strategy works out across all teams.
My feeble brain says that if you have a 3 point lead and 5 seconds left, it makes sense to foul. There has to be perfect execution in a lot of areas for that team to make and miss one free throw, get the rebound and then make the winning basket
Literally almost anyone on the court can make s long 3 pointer
-
@nuleafjhawk I actually read stats on that. Not fouling won out.
-
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Thank you for all the great info. I must say I’m surprised.
-
Interesting read. So why do the pros foul? Well… probably because the pros are paid millions of dollars to execute the game. Pros are paid to make treys, including from deep deep.
Pros are also paid to seal off the rebounds.
Pros are also paid to execute defense against the winning shot off a rebound.
What I would like to know… how many times has Kansas been in this position during the Self era? We all know many times. It is something we should care about because Self wins a lot of games and winning those last few extra games makes the difference between good and great… and bringing home hardware!
This all just makes me more of a believer that we need to work on end game! Then foul!
-
“Nuance… basketball is a game of nuance” - Maybe it’s just not right to say we should always foul or not foul. Doesn’t it matter who the players are on the court? For example… if we foul, we could put Doke on one side and Big Mac on the other side for rebounding. Then we put in the best defensive guard lineup on the floor. The play is dead off the foul so we are free to substitute.
What about going with a “hybrid foul?” That means… we tell our guys to defend aggressively, going for steals and knock away dribbles without worrying about fouling. What the stats from Kenpon don’t show is how many times did the defense prevent any kind of shot from happening? Like… making a steal?
If we are working on “end game strategy” maybe we play it like this:
-
Go full-tilt defense trying to steal, knock the ball away, or just create so must chaos a shot can’t be shot. Risk the foul being extra aggressive!
-
When the ball gets within 10-ft of the trey line, foul.
Think about all the things that have to go right for our opponent to win the game.
-
They have to survive our aggressive defensive attack before the foul.
-
They need to make the first free throw.
-
They need to miss the second free throw.
-
They need to make a shot off the rebound.
Adding in the first step of more aggression creates yet one more step a team has to succeed at in order to have a chance at winning.
I don’t see how a well-coached end game team will lose playing it this way.
“See… I told you so!” - no matter what happens, a game will finish with a win or loss and one side of this argument will get to say “I told you so” and the other side will eat crow. Had Baylor made the trey and won in overtime, people like me would be barking even louder!
-
-
We lost to Dook and Nova because of our end game. We beat Tech and Baylor with our end game. Maybe we are getting better, a bad pass and a lucky 3 by Baylor made that a 3 point game instead of a 8 point one. Just gotta learn from those.
