The democratic nominee
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I wonder who is going to steal Biden’s thunder in SC. Could make things a lot easier if he underperforms there.
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Pete has a minority voter and ground game problem. That campaing is well-organized in Iowa and NH, but not many other spots.
D’s now have a fairly big problem with a split decision in Iowa/NH. Oddly enough, Biden still has a pretty strong argument to make he’s the most viable in swing states given his popularity with minority voters. I think his natural heir in the field if his collapse continues is Bloomberg. SC D voters are very non-ideological and transactional. I don’t think he’ll do great in SC since he’s not really playing there, but he certainly could get in late given his unlimited resources.
Bernie is definitely the favorite at this point, but the narrative around his candidacy is taking on water. He isn’t bringing out new voters. Iowa turnout was about on par with 16 (way down from 08) and NH is down from 16. I don’t see his revolution schtick at all. But I will say he’s got a good ground game and will over perform his popular vote share in the delegate count, which is really all that matters.
Amy has a ground game and money problem. She may surprise in Nevada, but she doesn’t have the capacity to move the metaphorical mountain on Super Tuesday. She hasn’t even polled above 2% in SC since October.
My dark horse is Steyer. He’s going to do well in SC and has a massive war chest.
Also, the knives will start to come out. Some R friends of mine gave me a preview of some of the oppo about to drop and it’s going to get really, really ugly.
Everyone else might as well call it quits.
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So Steyer is all over the airwaves in SC. The Biden spoiler. Interesting. Never considered that.
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Oh yes. He’s polling a solid second behind Biden right now. The odds of a floor fight are growing.
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@FarmerJayhawk how is Amy going to appeal to the black vote? What’s her best play there? Does it matter if she performs in SC right now? What does she need to show in SC?
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I was impressed to see Klobuchar on Fox a few days ago and on The View. She’s trying to get exposure to moderate Republicans. Who else is doing that?
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@approxinfinity said in The democratic nominee:
@FarmerJayhawk how is Amy going to appeal to the black vote? What’s her best play there? Does it matter if she performs in SC right now? What does she need to show in SC?
She has to over perform in Nevada (beat Pete and Biden) then maybe win South Carolina. At some point she has to win. She’s maybe the least ready to rumble on Super Tuesday. The only state she may win is Minnesota. Honestly I don’t really see a path for her. Seems very Kasich to me.
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Then it’s probably Buttigieg. Bernie’s supporters are committed but he’s not going to get more votes unless Pete drops out.
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I want to hear Buttigieg speak tonight. Klobuchars speech was essentially her stump speech, same jokes and turns of phrase. One of the voters in NH was talking about how Pete was a fast thinker and able to speak off the cuff eloquently. With that in mind I want see him speak off the cuff.
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I don’t really see a path for Pete either. Not very organized in Super Tuesday states and not polling well at all in Nevada or SC. Has never clicked with minority voters. He’s probably toast if he gets 5th in NV and SC.
If I had to put them in order of likelihood: Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg… Steyer… Pete, Amy
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I’m no democrat, but if I was I’d vote Buttigieg. I think he is the best chance for the DNC. Only thing he doesn’t do well with the African American voters. Tough.
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Watching Pete’s speech right now to his NH supporters. Excellent.
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If my math is right (big if) Pete will come away with more delegates by a couple.
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“And let me say that this victory right here, is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.”
You’re a bad, bad man Bernie. Yeah @Kcmatt7, Bernie will beat Trump. @Crimsonorblue22 when you said “everyone besides the old guys” for who could out debate Trump, you were referring to Biden and… Sanders? The guy on my TV right now is going to beat the crap out of Trump in a debate.
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Here comes the oppo… BTW, Culinary is basically Harry Reid’s political arm and supports Biden. https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1227443066526687233?s=21
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1.6%, Pete really narrowed the gap.
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Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in The democratic nominee:
Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
Interesting. Part of that I think is that Bernie has been campaigning hard with minorities. Referred to as “Uncle Bernie” by his Hispanic supporters.
Yeah, also the narrative that this is a race of moderates vs progressives is divisive, language that Fox is happy to chuck about. It’s more in the interest of unity to look at the field as multifarious
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@approxinfinity said in The democratic nominee:
@FarmerJayhawk said in The democratic nominee:
Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
Interesting. Part of that I think is that Bernie has been campaigning hard with minorities. Referred to as “Uncle Bernie” by his Hispanic supporters.
Yeah, also the narrative that this is a race of moderates vs progressives is divisive, language that Fox is happy to chuck about. It’s more in the interest of unity to look at the field as multifarious
Nevada is going to be a fun stress test of that appeal. Been on MSNBC most of the night and they talk about it quite a lot as well. Easy shorthand for folks to wrap their heads around, but doesn’t really match most voters.
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So Bloomberg presumably comes in with the attack ads on Trump en force. Because thats how he brands himself, like a rich cavalry swooping in over the hills to help the good guys in the skirmish. He can’t attack the Dems, at least at first, because he’ll be instantly hated.
So does a prolonged attack campaign against Trump help the Democratic cause? My guess is yes? But I hope its done well, because for better or worse, it will be what determines if the Democrats can attract voters outside the party.
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From living in NC, Bloomberg is EVERYWHERE on TV. Big sporting event, news event, local newscast, you name it. He’s on the air. I’ve seen ads from 3 candidates so far: Trump, Bloomberg, and Steyer.
My theory is Bloomberg is running for POTUS in part because candidates get all the best advertising rates from TV stations, where Super PACs get much higher rates. He can act as a D Super PAC and carpet bomb Trump at about a third the cost of a real Super PAC.
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NH is Bernie’s backyard. For Pete to come into New England and nearly match him is saying something. But yes – it is a predominately white state and things may change in other states.
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@FarmerJayhawk I have seen not a single political ad in Virginia save Trump during the Superbowl yet. Hadn’t occurred to me about the ad rates. Very interesting.
Bloomberg prefers Bernie to Trump, right? (I admittedly know very little about Bloomberg)
What grade would you give Bloomberg’s ads? What is the content like? What do you think the impact of the ads you’ve seen thus far would be?
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While you are talking political advertising… this was interesting to me… https://www.wired.com/story/right-left-news-site-ad-tracking/
Conservative News Sites Track You Lots More Than Left-Leaning Ones
One analysis of news outlets found that the median popular right-wing site planted 73 percent more cookies than its left-wing counterpart.
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@bskeet hmm! I knew I shouldn’t have read those Fox News articles… I get texted by Republican groups all the time. Annoys the hell out of me.
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@approxinfinity you know… that’s a really great question. I bet both give him the willies for different reasons (Trump is just an awful person/POTUS and Bernie loathes people like Bloomberg) but I think he’d probably vote for Bernie over Trump.
I think they’re good. He has an A+ media team, in part because he’s paying well above market for great staff. Very non-ideological, get stuff done kind of ads. His ad about getting fired then starting Bloomberg media is really good. I don’t care for Bloomberg the politician but his campaign is solid.
Hmmm… would be interesting to figure out how you got on their text list. Most times campaigns buy, sell, and lease lists like Hertz
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It’s crazy that they said something like 31% of people who voted in the NH primary weren’t decided before the last debate. It make the case that it doesn’t matter if Bloomberg gets in late or even advertises in markets other than the ones in the next couple primaries.
I responded to conservative tweets and posted on comment threads on conservative news sources, stuff like that. I’m assuming that is how they got me.
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I get at least 2 phone calls per day from “re-elect Trump” with a recording of him screaming about something and begging for money. Have no idea how my phone number ended up on their call list… could be they just robo call every land line in red states. Hope it costs him a dime every time. LOL
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@DanR that’s hilarious because of how much you dislike him. I swear they target those people on purpose
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@kjayhawks Is it hilarious or is it harassment… a fine line… Just like talking about federal judges disparagingly right before they’re about to sentence your buddies. Only, that’s not funny at all.
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@approxinfinity I don’t know anything about the judge deal. But if you can get harassment charges on automated calls let me know because I get those all the dang time. I’d be a millionaire pretty quick, the call about my cars warranty happened about every day for 6 months to me last year. I’d be fine if all of those calls stopped but I’d bet good money democratic nominees are calling people that don’t want it either. If you don’t want it you should be consistent with it, not just for the people you don’t like.
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@kjayhawks It is actually s big disparity between the amount of texts i get from republican causes vs democratic, way way more from the republicans. And I have never gotten a robo call from a democratic and have gotten many from republicans.
To your point, the car warranty calls i would absolutely call harassment. They’re trying to sell me a bs ancillary warranty, completely ignore my requests to cease and desist, and when I question their reps about what company they belong to, they either hang up or tell me that their company is named Warranty Department. no shit. That’s what one told me when I grilled her.
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@approxinfinity It wouldn’t surprise me if they call people registered in the opposing party. I against any of these type of phone calls personally. I actually haven’t got calls from any political party yet, I did last election season from both so I’d be shocked if it ain’t coming unfortunately.
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There is a reason the establishment including the DNC is so afraid of Bernie. I can’t see him getting the nomination despite winning primaries.
He would be the first actual liberal president since…well in a long damn time? Obama was basically a Republican if you really think about it. On material grounds, he’s as pro-capitalist right wing as they come. His niche exists solely to placate the working class into feeling like they’re not losing as much ground as they could be. (So the bottom 80% of households can feel grateful they’ve only lost like 20% to 40% of their net worth instead of more.) On empty symbolic grounds he’s cosmetically different, but that only matters if one is a race-brain justice lord that cares about platitudes and cliches more than who gets a pay raise and who gets a pay cut.
I could go on about Obama with more examples, but I think the point is made. I kinda wonder what Bernie would really be able to do. God forbid there be less profit off of human suffering and basic human rights.
The worst candidate is Bloomberg. He was a long term Republican and now since he put the D next to his name we are supposed to believe he is a liberal? Lol…
Ultimately it doesn’t matter who is president*, but I’m still voting and encourage others to do the same.
*in name, since the real presidents are Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Lockheed Martin.
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I’d like to rewrite the constitution.
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@mayjay you could do the legal terms for me and @justanotherfan
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in The democratic nominee:
I’d like to rewrite the constitution.
I like it the way it is, even with all its errors and problems. The problem for Democrats is that for 60 years they won some court cases, changed lots of federal laws, let the federal agencies define those laws, used court cases to enforce those laws, and then found out it doesn’t work so well when you forget Tip O’Neill’s admonition that all politics is local. They ceded power in state after state to the Repubs, thinking the federal laws would eliminate any resistance.
The constitution isn’t to blame. People who think they can rest on court cases and ram-rodded legislation (Obsmacare, anyone?) got blinded by their own success and got lazy.
Changing the constitution because of the idiots on both side abusing it would be nuts. Don’t like the absolutist interps of the 2nd Amendment? Call for change! But–you might find that the 1st gets gutted. Don’t like the Electoral college?–maybe we say Sayonara to 2 Senators per state. Unhappy with court rulings favoring Trump’s minions?–Whoops, there goes judicial review. Always be careful what you wish for when it comes to law and politics.
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@DanR said in The democratic nominee:
I get at least 2 phone calls per day from “re-elect Trump” with a recording of him screaming about something and begging for money. Have no idea how my phone number ended up on their call list… could be they just robo call every land line in red states. Hope it costs him a dime every time. LOL
All that info is in your voter file so any campaign can scrape the Sec. of State for that info and call! We used to make all the calls by hand (later on VoIP phones thank God) and it was super easy to hit a button and leave a pre-recorded voicemail if there was no answer.
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@BShark said in The democratic nominee:
There is a reason the establishment including the DNC is so afraid of Bernie. I can’t see him getting the nomination despite winning primaries.
He would be the first actual liberal president since…well in a long damn time? Obama was basically a Republican if you really think about it. On material grounds, he’s as pro-capitalist right wing as they come. His niche exists solely to placate the working class into feeling like they’re not losing as much ground as they could be. (So the bottom 80% of households can feel grateful they’ve only lost like 20% to 40% of their net worth instead of more.) On empty symbolic grounds he’s cosmetically different, but that only matters if one is a race-brain justice lord that cares about platitudes and cliches more than who gets a pay raise and who gets a pay cut.
I could go on about Obama with more examples, but I think the point is made. I kinda wonder what Bernie would really be able to do. God forbid there be less profit off of human suffering and basic human rights.
The worst candidate is Bloomberg. He was a long term Republican and now since he put the D next to his name we are supposed to believe he is a liberal? Lol…
Ultimately it doesn’t matter who is president*, but I’m still voting and encourage others to do the same.
*in name, since the real presidents are Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Lockheed Martin.
Well, he is disruptive. Also a royal asshole to most people. Not some grand conspiracy, most people just don’t like him very much. Part of the reason nobody who really knows him well endorsed him. Pat Leahy kind of had to because they live like 10 miles apart. Bernie also has a women problem. Oppo about to drop on that.
Obama basically a Republican? Man… that’s a new one. This isn’t the thread to go into that but we can have that out at some point
We do agree Bloomberg is awful. Worst candidate on civil liberties by far. Only other that was close was Harris. Some of his anti-religious liberty stuff was so bad Bill deBlasio thought they were overboard. For example, Bloomberg banned organizations affiliated with public schools to meet in churches (think PTA’s). Just bonkers kind of stuff. Not to mention stop and frisk. It does crack me up how his actual accomplishment of getting NYC’s finances in order doesn’t appear on any of his ads or campaign site. Like dude, your the classic technocrat. Just own it.
Also, your last sentence struck a chord. BUH GAWD WE PUT WAY TOO MUCH F’ING EMPHASIS ON WHO THE FORKING POTUS IS. The Article I branch is superior to the others yet midterm elections when 468 of the 535 members of Congress get elected. If you really want change, get out and campaign for candidates in Congressional primary and general elections. For example, Bernie wants a single payer health plan more generous than any exists on the planet. He needs 60 Senators and 218 House members to agree. There might be 40 Senators (at most) and 150 House members that would vote for BernieCare and most importantly, the enormous taxes necessary to double the size of the federal government. President Bernie shudders can’t just do that. We’re not a dictatorship, no matter what CNN says. The Constitution puts these responsibilities on Congress (thank mercy!) so if you really want the Bernie (or any candidate!) agenda, get out and work/vote in primary and midterm elections.
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@Crimsonorblue22 that’s why I’d never vote Democrat. Call me crazy but for a group of people that screams Hitler (which is nothing short of asinine and uneducated) to anyone that disagrees with them but has been trying take away the first two amendments my whole life span. Which to anyone that’s read any or in my case multiple books on Nazi Germany knows that’s how he became so power over there. I agree with @mayjay the Constitution has flaws but I’d hate to see what would happen without it. Sometimes I just think the election is just a phony way of making us citizens feel like we have freedom of choice but as @BShark stated big business has ran this country for the last 120 years regardless of whether there is a D or an R next to the name of the president.
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@FarmerJayhawk look I’m just saying Obama was a very good capitalist lap dog. He had time to even try to increase minimum wage. If you want to some time though, down the line, then sure.
I find it silly that Bloomberg can be a Republican so long and then declare himself a Democrat. That still just slays me so I have to bring it up again. And yes he is a total asshole. Really hope he doesn’t buy the nomination.
We might disagree on some stuff like I don’t think Bernie is Marx but I usually find you reasonable. To me Marx is insane as is Laffer. There is a sane middle ground. Bernie will not win the nomination though, I’d bet farms on that.
@kjayhawks both sides weaponize social issues while otherwise maintaining the status quo lol.
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@BShark said in The democratic nominee:
@FarmerJayhawk look I’m just saying Obama was a very good capitalist lap dog. He had time to even try to increase minimum wage. If you want to some time though, down the line, then sure.
I find it silly that Bloomberg can be a Republican so long and then declare himself a Democrat. That still just slays me so I have to bring it up again. And yes he is a total asshole. Really hope he doesn’t buy the nomination.
We might disagree on some stuff like I don’t think Bernie is Marx but I usually find you reasonable. To me Marx is insane as is Laffer. There is a sane middle ground. Bernie will not win the nomination though, I’d bet farms on that.
@kjayhawks both sides weaponize social issues while otherwise maintaining the status quo lol.
Again, longer discussion but Obama torched all his political capital getting the stimulus and ACA done. D’s in Congress were much more centrist than they are now so it took some serious effort (and really wild deal making) to get Lincoln, Nelson, et al. on board with a huge expansion of social programs.
I don’t think Bernie is Marx at all. He’s not a rabid anti-Semite (yay!), respects democracy (yay!), and believes we actually need a state (big yay!). I just don’t agree with him on anything and think he’s a prick. Which tbf is how I feel about most of the D candidates at this point.
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Lol at people against the Dems for going against amendment one when Republican congressman and the President are enemy #1 against free press and free speech at the moment.
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@Kcmatt7 interesting, I think trump has been hard on his negative press outlets but Obama scolded Fox News when he was in office multiple times. A Democrat senator that said he doesnt believe people should be able to criticize them even when they are wrong. Politics have a ton hypocrites these days for sure. I’m in the middle on a ton of issues.
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9dY4WlxO6i0
A good bit about the reality of stuff right now.
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@kjayhawks said in The democratic nominee:
@Kcmatt7 interesting, I think trump has been hard on his negative press outlets but Obama scolded Fox News when he was in office multiple times. A Democrat senator that said he doesnt believe people should be able to criticize them even when they are wrong. Politics have a ton hypocrites these days for sure. I’m in the middle on a ton of issues.
Trump has revoked several Press Passes and hasn’t had his press secretary hold a press briefing ever since she got the job. He literally calls every single mainstream media fake news but Fox and the second they criticize him he tweets about it. He basically ran Shep out.
Nunes is suing people on Twitter for saying mean things about him.
Huckabee is trying to get a lawyer on twitter disbarred for tweeting mean things about him.
Senators are now walking down the hallways calling reporters “liberal hacks” like its normal.
Other Congressman will “only go on OAN and Foxnews”
To compare Obama not treating Foxnews like an actual News outlet is fair. Providing it still is a news outlet and does not existing solely to drum up or magnify propaganda. Like the Obama “birther” story for example.
What Obama did was wrong. I’ll agree somewhat. But it’s not even in the realm of what is happening right now. Across the board, Republicans in office have felt emboldened to attack any and all press. It’s a big hit with the MAGA crowd to just call everyone “Fake News” and get a little sound bite of that.
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How everyone isn’t on the healthcare train yet I do not understand. It’s works. The proof is all over the world.
The proof is you can, as a non citizen go up to Canada and buy insulin for a quarter of the cost without insurance as here in the U.S.
I had a friend who’s appendix had to be removed while he was in Denmark. It wasn’t even $5k for a non citizen to have emergency surgery.
It’s not like we would be the first to do this and it’s some loony toon idea.
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@Kcmatt7 Brain worms are freaking powerful man.
Just countless other examples. A friend of mine that also lives in Texas half the year had dental work done in Mexico. The US system is broken. People shouldn’t have one medical emergency tank them. Whether they just can’t pay, it bankrupts them, majorly has a negative impact on their retirement or kids college fund* etc… It’s all backwards as hell.
*god forbid you have to take out student loans, then you are really truly effed
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@Kcmatt7 interesting I guess I don’t pay enough attention to it to see all of that. But healthcare is huge issue in this country right now.
