Kenpom loves the B12
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I find this interesting because the league seems down as a whole this season. I think KU and Baylor could beat anyone if they play well. I think WV and Tech are the next tier but after that it’s all trash IMO. There not being a dominant team could playing into this a fair amount.
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@Kcmatt7 Our league is never the best league. Never has been the best league. Always irrelevant discussions about how good the bottom half of the league is. I don’t care how good teams are alleged to be that don’t make the tourney. They suck. We can’t even get non-KU teams to the FF. And we only made it twice in a decade. Fatten up on a weak league. Decades of dearth. Any league where one team wins 13 times in a row isn’t that good at all. We have no quality 2nd or 3rd team. Wichita St. would be the 2nd best program if they were in our league. Every year I hear how KenPom claims how good the Big 12 is. Evidence proves otherwise. There are 4 FF spots (obviously) and we regularly get none.
My humble opinion is that “good looks” don’t matter. Final Fours and NCs do.
KenPom is illusion
We’re 12th in offense? My eyes don’t lie. That’s bunk. Again, just an opinion from my little mind.
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Tech did make the Finals last year.
#12 offense (13th today) is a collection of many things as I’m sure you know. KU’s strong 2pt FG% (9th in the country), Top 100 3pt FG% (due to low volume) and slow tempo due to the well above average defense is keeping the offense statistically in the top tier of College Basketball. It’s not just Kenpom that has KU’s offense in the top tier there are several other outlets saying the same…
Have you watched other teams offenses? How do they compare to KU’s? KU Fans obviously have a keener eye for picking out the weaknesses on our own team.
Side note: I’m also surprised this offense is rated that highly given what we see on a nightly basis. I do try and watch a lot of other teams (especially the Top 20 or so) and there just isn’t a lot of gifted offensive teams out there this season.
Gonzaga seems to have the most firepower as a team (Dayton is up there too). I have never seen offense as a whole look so average. The trickle down effect of talent leaving early for the draft, the craziness of the transfer portal decimating chemistry/team building and the 3 pt line being extended have made offense this season hard to watch. Adjustments will be made as they always are.
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@BeddieKU23 Well, yes, I do know that TT made the FF. Since OK St. made it in 2004, only OU in '16 and TT in '19 have made the FF from the Big 12 other than KU - '08, '12, '18. That is simply horrible. 15 seasons. 60 spots. And the Big 12 fills those spots just 5 times. Only 8.3% of the FF participants were Big 12.
We are not in the top 50 scoring wise. I like advanced stats. I do. But what I see with this team, against decent opponents, I see an offensive team that struggles. KenPom says 12 or 13? Not close. I’d suggest, totally subjectively, that we’re outside the top 25 offensively right now. Again, just what I’m feeling – seeing lots of CBB over the years, lots of KU offenses, etc. Now, boost our three point % a bit, shoot some more threes, pick up the pace a bit, meaning create more possessions to limit our risk ratio vs. lesser opponents? That’s what I’d like to see.
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@HighEliteMajor What are 12 other teams with offense better than KU based on your feelings? Villanova, Duke, and Dayton are the three teams ahead of us in offense that we’ve played. That makes sense to me but Duke at 3rd should show how down offense is this year. That team we played was not an elite offensive team by normal standards but this year, who is better?
KenPom is a completely feelingless ranking. It’s all numbers. It always baffles me when people talk about KenPom favoring one team over another or gives a conference too much credit. The ranking (especially the pure offense and defensive rank) is pretty simply based on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency based on points per possession. Is KU’s offense as good this year as in years past? Probably not, but the ranking is not comparing that, it is comparing to other teams this year.
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I have zero rebuttable for how the conference has performed in March. We could go on (and on) about why its been that way. At this point maybe its just a mindset thing, a coaching thing, a conference thing, whatever the case results have been well below average. There are several KU teams (that should have made the F4) that are not on the short list you gave. It pains me to even think about the Michigan year or the Villanova year and almost every season we fall short of expectations.
Comparing this offense to history; other KU teams & nationally it falls well short. No rebuttable there. Scoring has been on a downtrend the past month for this current squad especially against good teams. The jig is out (tape, scouting report).
The Dayton game seems to be either an outlier or what this team is capable of in a tournament setting. We did clean 90 (in OT) against a good team many think is F4 capable while being barraged with 3’s. Our best players played their best and the supporting cast did their job.
Would love to see this team shoot more 3’s- that goes hand in hand with playing 4/1 at least 90% of the game. The stats say turnovers go down, shooting goes up and efficiency is at its peak for this roster. We will give up some rebounding and some defensive efficiency but maybe the improvement from 4 guards gives this team a wider margin for error then it currently looks to have. Great defense, average offense (below for Self historically).
On more possessions- its actually KU’s defense limiting more opportunities at least from how I’m seeing the data. As wild as that sounds, KU is actually above average in time of possession on offense (getting shots up) but the defense is actually slowing games down because teams are having a hard time getting good shots. Maybe this team would be perfect to throw in the occasional half court press (with its length) after made baskets. I see Duke/Nova do this with success in creating turnovers/easy baskets. Just spit balling an idea how to create more possessions that could be positive over time.
The downside to more possessions at least from how this roster is constructed is the heavy minutes being played by our perimeter trio of Dotson/Garrett/Agbaji. Dotson- bum hip, Garrett- bum ankles, Agbaji- back from the OU game all pumping in heavy minutes and now getting injured along the way. Also as improved as Doke’s conditioning is this season you still see him getting visibly tired in games. Self went to a set heavy 2nd half as his guys got tired against OU with only 8 bodies to use. I don’t know if Self has the personnel to just adjust much on that end. I did like Moss getting up double digit 3’s in the last game. He has the nicest looking shot on the team so that should continue to be an emphasis. Thoughts?
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HighEliteMajor said:
@BeddieKU23 Well, yes, I do know that TT made the FF. Since OK St. made it in 2004, only OU in '16 and TT in '19 have made the FF from the Big 12 other than KU - '08, '12, '18. That is simply horrible. 15 seasons. 60 spots. And the Big 12 fills those spots just 5 times. Only 8.3% of the FF participants were Big 12.
Just to add some other final four appearance numbers for comparison, this decade (if my counting is correct) ACC - 7 Teams Not Duke or NC - 1 (Virginia) B10 - 7 Teams Not MSU/MU - 2 (Wisconsin twice and OSU) SEC - 7 Teams Not UK/Louisville - 2 (SC and Auburn) Big East - 7 Teams not UConn/Nova/Syracuse - 1 (West Virginia) B12 - 4 - Teams not KU - 2 (OU and TT)
Seems to me that the Big 12 is missing that second team to hang with Kansas and help put up banners.
The Big 10 and Big East appear to be the most balanced conferences but also take into account the Big 12 with only 10 teams is by far the smallest. If you add in WV to the big 12 that takes us to 5 and the big east down to 6. And now that I think about it I’m not sure if Syracuse’s most recent was with the ACC or Big East?
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@BeddieKU23 I just don’t think Self will go to a press. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw KU run any real press other than token full court man to man. What is a trap? I don’t seem to remember seeing one! Is it that he hates the press being broken for an easy basket so much that he can’t make himself do it? If that were the case though, wouldn’t we score easier baskets against teams that press us (we DON’T)?
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benshawks08 said:
@BeddieKU23 I just don’t think Self will go to a press. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw KU run any real press other than token full court man to man. What is a trap? I don’t seem to remember seeing one! Is it that he hates the press being broken for an easy basket so much that he can’t make himself do it? If that were the case though, wouldn’t we score easier baskets against teams that press us (we DON’T)?
Oh I’m sure we’ll never see a press unless we are losing helplessly and trying to get back in the game. It was just an idea that I’ve seen two teams (Duke/Nova) use this year to create havoc and turnovers/easy baskets and threw out for discussion sake. We have the personnel to run a trap or press perfectly. We have pesky guards/wings with length and a 7 foot eraser at the rim on the backend to deter easy baskets. KU’s 2pt defense this season has absolutely been positively impacted by his improvement on defense this season. OU didn’t even look at the hoop if he was within reaching distance. But it was a pipedream thought I think.
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I know my reply is stupid… but…
If winners were picked on stats alone, the games would be played on laptops.
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@drgnslayr 100% agree! The numbers will never show everything but do tend to be less biased. That’s what I like about the Kenpom rankings is that he doesn’t actually rank anyone. He sets up an algorithm that he thinks gives the best picture of how good a team is compared to other teams based on the numbers he values (efficiency mostly) and then basically just does math every night to update the picture.
I can’t say it’s any worse then other folks who will leave Gonzaga at #1 until they lose another game. Every “eye test” and “gut feeling” is uncontrollably biased. The only ranking that actually matters is done by the tournament committee as it controls who plays who and who could potentially run into who. Even then, if a team wins 6 games they are number 1. The end. Even if that team wasn’t “the best team” they are the champs.
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I will constantly discount the super stat forecasts just like I discount the so-called “basketball experts” and/or media pollsters.
Maybe I’m just narcissistic enough to think my eyes see better than everyone else and my brain calculates so much better than computers and programs.
I’m pretty certain many of us feel this way about ourselves when being exposed to outside opinions.
And then there is the crimson/blue sunglasses we all wear.
Complain, complain, complain. Then what? If we aren’t complaining about some stat machine or poll we would be complaining because they didn’t exist! Do you see where I’m going with this?
Peace!
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Speaking of stats…
Does anyone know: During a game, do we have a real-time statistician giving Self real-time numbers? Seems like a valuable asset to know which lineups produce the best results during the game so we can make our best run at the end.
I know all teams have “sports information” and are given things like halftime stat lines. This is different.
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benshawks08 said:
The Big 10 and Big East appear to be the most balanced conferences but also take into account the Big 12 with only 10 teams is by far the smallest. If you add in WV to the big 12 that takes us to 5 and the big east down to 6. And now that I think about it I’m not sure if Syracuse’s most recent was with the ACC or Big East?
Syracuse was in the ACC their latest final 4.
Big 10 was in 8 final fours. SEC, BE, ACC all had 7. B12 had 4. With the conference reshuffling, it’s a little mixed up, but I suppose teams with 14, 15 or 16 teams have a statistical advantage of getting more teams into the tournament, but the #1 and #2 seeds have the best chance at getting to the F4. The B12 isn’t getting many of those #1s or 2s, except for Kansas. Maybe having one more perennial power would help the conference. I don’t know.
Kansas as #1 seed (no other B12 teams had #1 seeds)
2010 (lost to Northern Iowa 2nd round)
2011 (lost to VCU)
2013 (lost to Michigan)
2016 (lost to Villanova)
2017 (lost to Oregon)
2018 (final four)
Kansas as # 2 seed
2012 (runner up)
2014 (lost to Stanford)
2015 (lost to Wichita State)
Other #2 seeds:
2010 KState (2) lost to Butler in Regional Championship
2012 Missouri (2) lost first round to Norfolk State (LOL)
2016 Oklahoma (2) made it to the final four
(Tech last year as a #3 made the final four)
So, we can’t really blame the other B12 teams for poor tournaments. Despite 2 Final Fours KU has been the biggest B12 under achiever of the decade. Should have been in the final four AT LEAST two additional times, probably 3.
Well, that was a painful look back at the past decade. What was my point?
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@drgnslayr I"m not sure what the procedure is, but I have seen someone giving one of the coaches a sheet of paper during the game and the coaches studying it intently. I had always assumed they were getting up to date stats.
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@drgnslayr I am 99% sure that at every TV timeout the assistants get a print out with the updated stats. I have no clue what is on the sheet and how things are broken down , but they are kept up to date during the game.
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@DanR When you lay it out like that, it looks like we must be the underachievers of the decade… Our performance is as much a negative statistical anomaly as UCONN is a positive anomaly.
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KU now with the #1 D in KenPom and the overall #1 ranking.
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The # 1 defense (kenpom) have played in 2 of the last 3 title games.
KU’s defense can get them there!
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After the sunshine brawl- Kenpom #1 still, #10 Offense, #2 Defense
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It’s a good team with some great attributes over-shadowed by the ugly headlines.
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For reference, KU at #1 in Kenpom (+30.27) would be 5th last year just ahead of Texas Tech.
Duke #2 right now would be 7th.
Gonzaga #3 would be 11th.
Dayton #4 would be 12th.
Baylor #5 would be 13th.
Interesting
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@BeddieKU23 Seems more like it. B-ball is down. Too bad KU doesn’t have a dominant team now! Seems like the best KU teams are in up years across the sport - like having all four one seeds in the final four type of stacked years.
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This team can still get to another level.
This is a dominant defense. Hopefully we can say Elite by season’s end.
KU has two of the best players in the country at PG & C. Our C is improving by the week especially defensively.
Two reserves have cranked it up a notch (Moss & Braun) and they are our best shooters.
The wildcard is Ochai who’s having in my opinion a mirror of Wayne Selden’s 2nd year here. Whatever the staff has to do to find him a jumpshot needs to be explored.
This team isn’t perfect but I’m hopeful
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BeddieKU23 said:
This team can still get to another level.
This is a dominant defense. Hopefully we can say Elite by season’s end.
KU has two of the best players in the country at PG & C. Our C is improving by the week especially defensively.
Two reserves have cranked it up a notch (Moss & Braun) and they are our best shooters.
The wildcard is Ochai who’s having in my opinion a mirror of Wayne Selden’s 2nd year here. Whatever the staff has to do to find him a jumpshot needs to be explored.
This team isn’t perfect but I’m hopeful
I said it before that I thought KU was the best looking team in the country.
And as you point out here, they have room to get better still. I’m really excited for Bill to be forced into 4-1 the next twelve games.
I think a positive way to look a the Ochai situation is that we don’t necessarily always need him to score. Dotson, Doke, Moss and Braun should be enough fire power to win most games for the best defense ever in the Kenpom era.
And I really think we can still grow offensively. Basically everyone but Doke and Garrett are capable of being better at something on that end of the floor. Moss could play more in the flow. Braun could be more consistent and aggressive like he showed last game. Dotson could shoot better. Ochai needs to do basically everything better. Dave could finish better. Enaruna could finish MUCH better.
If they can go find a few more points a game and keep this defense I really think they win it all this year. And in a dominating fashion.
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I agree we don’t need Ochai to always score. His defense has been mostly really good. Against K-St he was really aggressive and you could tell the difference in energy and he rebounded at a high level. The jump shot just looks so funky from catch to release (reminding of Garrett his first two seasons really). I would take the energy & aggressiveness from him most nights and be happy because I know in the flow of the game he’s going to find a way to do some good things because effort is not a problem. I just really think he’s a consistent jumper away from giving the team the 3rd option that teams cannot take away. You look at the teams that have defended KU the best, they can limit Doke’s paint touches and pressure Dotson enough with help to take away his tremendous speed and driving ability but KU having that 3rd option that’s going to consistently get you 10-15 a night would really be the cherry on top.
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BeddieKU23 said:
I agree we don’t need Ochai to always score. His defense has been mostly really good. Against K-St he was really aggressive and you could tell the difference in energy and he rebounded at a high level. The jump shot just looks so funky from catch to release (reminding of Garrett his first two seasons really). I would take the energy & aggressiveness from him most nights and be happy because I know in the flow of the game he’s going to find a way to do some good things because effort is not a problem. I just really think he’s a consistent jumper away from giving the team the 3rd option that teams cannot take away. You look at the teams that have defended KU the best, they can limit Doke’s paint touches and pressure Dotson enough with help to take away his tremendous speed and driving ability but KU having that 3rd option that’s going to consistently get you 10-15 a night would really be the cherry on top.
I want to see him add a post game. He’s got 25 lbs, 2 or 3 inches height, and 5 or more inches vertical on some of these guys guarding him. I’d think he could really effectively bully some guys on the block.
I’d also like to see him shoot better, but he is shooting over .300 which for this team is actually pretty good lol. But I agree if he could find the consistency from beyond the arch we’d be better.
