MSU KU Predictions
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I agree about the concerns with Garrett on offense. I don’t think he put that to rest in the exhibitions either. His shot still looks ugly and defenses will not hesitate to play off him.
I want to see Marcus aggressive with the ball. He shot the ball well inside the arc last season and I hope they focus on getting him in situations where he can get to the hoop.
This year we are going to score differently and that’s one of Self’s biggest areas to work on this season. Fitting the offense to the personnel and getting the right people on the floor. I don’t want to write him off just yet without seeing how real action goes with him in the lineup. He has value in a lot of other area’s and Self seems to trust him so he’ll likely play, a lot. We’ll find out in 8 hours
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@DanR @KirkIsMyHinrich Sure, 77% is better than 45%, but reliance on shooting % can be a bit misleading in determining whether he had a good/efficient game. If Doke is 4-5 from the field, he betters his shooting %. But, that reflects shot attempts. If he turns it over 5 times, goes 3-8 from the FT line (with 2 missed front-ends), passes weakly and late in the shot clock out of double teams (leading to wasted possessions), and the other teams big can score from the perimeter on him - is that net net a productive performance??? What is also important is his usage rate and how efficient the Hawks are scoring when he has touches.
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FWIW, line is moving more in favor of KU. Opened at -5.5, bumped to -6.5 currently…
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We have the deepest bench in college basketball. Garrett has earned the start, although Grimes should end up playing more minutes. We have tremendous firepower available.
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If Dedric scores 20 per, Doke can be a consistent scoring force inside, and Vick has the kind of offensive season many of us hope/expect, then the Garrett discussion is much different. Garrett can be the perfect compliment. But on an offensively challenged team, he could be an anchor. I like the point about him driving from @BeddieKU23 – I want him to look for that and be aggressive with it.
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@HighEliteMajor I wouldn’t worry about Garrett as a fulltime starter. They’re only going with MG because we’re facing Winston and Langford. Winston is an exceptional pg, and Langford is a 5 star recruit, so we’re throwing our 2 best defenders on the perimeter at them. It wouldn’t surprise me if Grimes doesn’t end up with more minutes than Garrett. Vick has a plus matchup against Quaid, which has to account partly for why we go with such a poor shooter at the 2. Not sure who Sparty has that could defend Dedric…maybe they’ll try Tillman because Goins looks like to me to be just a typical Sparty bruiser. Ward will probably get his, but they’ll need half the team to stop Doke. Last year’s team could only dream of having such good perimeter defenders.
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I’m happy with Garrett starting, but I thought he would be starting over Dotson, not Grimes. Garrett is probably our best perimeter defender, I’m not sure I’d call Dotson our 2nd best, though. I was hoping it would be Garrett guarding Winston, Vick guarding Langford, and Grimes guarding McQuaid. Defensively, that would put a lot of length on the perimeter and make it harder for Michigan St to shoot 3’s.
Maybe Self is mad (reasonably) about turnovers in the first 2 exhibition games, though? In their 2 exhibition games against Emporia St and Washburn, Kansas turned the ball over 42 times. In those 2 games, Dotson only had 3 of those turnovers and Garrett only had 1. So maybe this is Self’s take-care-of-the-ball and make-good-entry-passes lineup.
Is Matt Tait usually right about these lineups? I mean he does have Kenny Goins projected to start for Michigan St and a lot of us think that Xavier Tillman is going to start.
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I think it is going to come down to not turning the ball over and solid D. I too wish Grimes would be starting on McQuiad but he will more than likely have plenty of chances later on in the game. Really can’t let them get comfortable from 3 - Winston and McQuaid are their main threats. Keep them contained out there, and we should be fine.
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BShark said:
FWIW, line is moving more in favor of KU. Opened at -5.5, bumped to -6.5 currently…
Someone just posted on the Phog, the line is down to 4
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UK board seems to think that their only advantage is depth tonight. They think they might have to go Zone and play big to compete. Not a good sign for them imo.
MSU at +5 is a good bet. 2-0 against KU in this tournament. They just held their exhibition opponent to 47. Even if KU wins, 5 points is a pretty big spread to cover in a game where the winner is probably whoever gets to 70 points first.
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What if Garret is in to guard Ward? A recent story on the Phog has Garret as being able to play 1-4. Yes, he would be giving up inches but bigger guys tend to have problems with smaller, faster players guarding them and KU is not counting on Garret to generate much offense anyway. So, if Garret, who is a very good defensive player, can disrupt Ward’s game enough to get him in foul trouble early, could end up being a great strategic move.
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@JayHawkFanToo Ward is 250 lbs, and 6’9". MG is 6’5" and probably comes in at a buck sixty. Back in the day, I used to play pickup games one on one against a guy that started for Seward county juco, and he was about 70 or so lbs heavier than me, and half a foot taller, and I’d do well for the first 5,6,7 times he drove on me, but that bigger body would just wear me down, and he’d simply drive to the rim, and put his shoulders up, and I was cooked. Yes, MG could hold his own if he was switching screens a time or two against Ward, but over the course of a game, Ward would wear him out. good idea, but the physics would work against us, I’m afraid.
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KU lists Garret at 6”5’ and 195 pounds. He is solidly built, fast and athletic and could give Ward fits. I am not saying guard him the entire game, just throw several players at him and get him out of rhythm; we might see Mitch on him at times.
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I will guard Ward and shut him down!!!
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I think Garrett could successfully guard Ward for a period of time. Not the entire game. But he could definitely disrupt him for awhile. Part of it would simply be that MG would have the quickness to not let Ward be able to lean on him and still successfully get around him to defend entry passes.
I think it might also force Ward into making skilled moves instead of just powering through a smaller guy. Part of the reason guys like Doke and Ward score as well as they do is that whoever is defending them is still a large man and so flops don’t look as convincing. Garrett could take a shoulder and fall to the ground and would be much more likely to receive a charging call.
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However, I don’t suggest that Garrett do much guarding of Ward. I think Doke and Dedric can handle him.
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I’ll go out on a limb and say Dotson finishes 2nd in points and is the difference in the game.
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Dotson and Grimes are starting
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Woodrow said:
Dotson and Grimes are starting
No surprise! Great news
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Espn has spent about 3 minutes talking about the ku game and half to talk about the trial
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@Woodrow Ha…Tait was WRONG…lol.
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@Kcmatt7 Bold statement, but I like it. I think Vick goes off, and scores 20+.
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Let’s go Jayhawks!
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Its normal for Bilas and Greenberg to be off their rocker
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92-87 KU
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Bwag said:
92-87 KU
Good call. Bwagstrodamus.
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UK really doesn’t scare me at this point, Duke on the other hands will probably number 1 very soon if they end up winning by 20 plus in this.
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If this margin holds Duke will be #1.
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And honestly, it’s hard to argue with that.
