RUTGERS: TALK TO ME
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@JayHawkFanToo Last time Kansas won and Wisconsin lost on the same day? I just might look that up!
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Last time KU won and Wisconsin lost on the same day was 2009. 5-0 KU beat ISU, alas, it was their last win of the year, an awful 0-7 finish. Wiscy went to the horseshoe and got beat soundly on Oct. 10 of that year. So this is an odd sort of day for sure.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 The biggest difference I see this year is the defense is everywhere and playing hard. TO’s are weird; how could the Rutgers freshman QB just throw it straight to Torneden and Lee. The fumbles were caused by our defense. We’ve really turned the corner on defense.
The second difference is the running backs are running much harder; after first contact they are keeping it going. Last year, the backs seemed to go down every time on first contact. Baylor is very beatable, but we have to keep running the ball hard. Our QB play is still very weak. We’ve got to complete more mid-range passes. How great would a Big 12 road victory be for our program? It’ll take our best effort yet and Pooka will be no surprise to Baylor.
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@stoptheflop no credit to O line?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@stoptheflop no credit to O line?
O-Line like Coach said is starting to get to know, one another more starting to come together - -still got along ways to go. - -NOW the real test begins - -testing their improvement , a big difference between non conference foe’s and Big 12 defense’s . - -Their getting better , the question yet to be seen - -just HOW much better.
Our running backs – hope they are better cause the gonna have to be able to open those holes for the backs. - Got to be able to protect the QB - although our QB’s have to step it up. - These Big 12 defense’s are going to load the box and force KU to throw the ball down the field - if our QB’S can’t do that - -then were screwed - -Again. these little flares not going to cut it against Big 12 Competition we are going to have to be able to score.
We also will find out exactly if the defense has really improved - -These teams aren’t going to turn it over as much Defense going to be on the filed longer. - I think they too have improved - just how much? -Still not getting much pressure on the opposing QB - -2 sacks total in three games? - -That’s not going to cut it these better QB’S going to eat our secondary alive if we can’t get pressure. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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This KU team is certainly better than the last couple of versions, but that was expected. The big question is if the progress is enough. A 1-8 or 2-7 run through the Big 12 probably still gets Beaty fired unless KU is competitive in every game. More likely, KU will need 3 or 4 conference wins to preserve Beaty’s job because that’s some real progress you can point to.
We are still waiting to see real progress. If Beaty can get 3 or 4 more wins, I count that as enough to keep his job. 2 puts me on the fence, and 1 I think a change has to be made.
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The question is which would be the conference wins? Baylor is certainly a possibility but beyond that I just don’t see it.
- At Baylor - decent chance
- OSU - No
- At WVU - No
- At TTU - Remote chance but doubtful KU wins at their home and their high power offense might be a bit too much.
- TCU - No
- ISU - Maybe but after it just gave OU a tough game likely No
- At KSU - Maybe, just maybe but doubtful KSU loses to KU at home
- At OU - No
- Texas - No. UT is getting a lot better and it dominated USC
Best possible scenario is 4 wins but most likely is just one win…maybe two if everything falls in place.
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One surprise upset (OU/OSU/WVU/TCU/Texas) combined with at least one more reachable victory (Baylor/KSU/TT/ISU) would be enough for me to believe they have improved significantly (assuming they are competitive in the other games).
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@bskeet The last 2 weeks have been big surprise upsets to me, but my definition might be a lot looser than most when it comes to KU…
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@JayHawkFanToo I’m going to disagree on your assessment of KU’s chances against OSU, TCU, and Texas. I’m not saying I think KU wins any of those games, but go look at recent history.
OSU has a habit of playing very flat, uninspired football in Lawrence and has had scares in recent years in Lawrence. Don’t be surprised if this game is closer than many expect.
Same deal with TCU. Last year was the first time TCU really dominated KU like many believe they should every year. Prior to last season, that game was always close.
With Texas, I really think KU’s chances depend on UT’s situation entering that game. They looked good against USC after the first quarter, but this is the same team lost to a below average Maryland team, and played a pretty ugly game against Tulsa. I think this game is really going to depend on which Texas team shows up on Lawrence.
All 3 of these games being in Lawrence make them trap games for those 3 teams and all 3 have a habit of not playing well in Lawrence in recent times. Like I said, I’m not specifically calling for an upset of any of those 3, but given those teams recent history in Lawrence, it’s not a huge reach to picture KU upsetting any of those 3 teams to me.
The other team I don’t fully agree with is Texas Tech. They absolutely have a great offense this year, there’s no debating that one to me. Where I think this game to give KU a shot is Tech’s defense is still pretty bad. If KU gets into a shootout with Tech, who knows what could happen with KU’s defense that suddenly knows how to create turnovers.
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Recent history would have a bearing if the exact same teams would be playing but all teams are very different than there were one, two or three years ago…
OSU dominated a very good BSU team, no way KU wins that one. TCU gave #4 Ohio State a very tough game and had a chance to actually win before OSU pulled away in the second half and it was only a 12 point loss. Texas has the talent and it is starting to put it all together; I just don’t see KU winning this one either, maybe after the Maryland and Tulsa games but after watching watching how well they played against #22 USC I have very little hope for a win. Tech has just too much offense and playing at home will not lose to KU. OSU and TCU are currently ranked #15 and #17 and wins over them would be huge upsets and unlikely to happen.
Does KU have a chance to win more than one game? Of course it does but realistically anything over a one conference win would be a surprise to me, a very nice surprise but a surprise nonetheless.
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I think they beat Baylor, then lose their next 8. 3-9…not too shabby!
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My view is this - 4-8 would have been good enough if you go 3-0 in non-con, plus beat Baylor and stay competitive against the middle tier Big 12 teams.
Losing to Nicholls State changed the calculation. KU can’t lose those kinds of games and still claim they are making progress under Beaty. That’s what put pressure on Beaty - he had a bad loss.
So now, the calculation is this:
Beat Baylor.
Win at least one “toss up” game (Iowa State, KSU, Tech, Texas)
Win a game against the upper tier (TCU, OU, WVU, OSU)
–or–
Beat Baylor
Win two “toss up” games, including one road win.
He has to make up for that bad loss with a surprise win either against KSU or Tech on the road (in addition to beating ISU or Texas in Lawrence) or OSU or TCU in Lawrence. Either of those gives Beaty the ammunition to argue that he is making progress with multiple road conference wins (since Baylor game is also on the road) or beating a ranked opponent.
Failing that, I think he still probably gets fired at the end of the season because beating two really awful teams doesn’t prove KU isn’t awful anymore.
The only way I change that stance is if KU can stay within 14 points in every game this year. If KU is competitive against everyone in conference and gets only one or two conference wins, Beaty can argue that he’s a year away, but if he gets blasted by the ranked teams and loses to the middle tier as well, there’s not much progress that fans can see.
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The part where we diverge is on what you call the “toss up” games. The only game I would consider a toss up is Baylor all the games you call toss up I would say KU has a chance of winning but ar not at all toss ups which to me means either team can win and I don’t believe this to be the case.
CMU and Rutgers are really bad teams and we cannot draw much from those two game, the loss to Nichols State provides more insight but Pooka did not play and he seems to be the key piece of the offense now. We will know more after the Baylor game.
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I’m speaking more from a progress perspective.
You can’t just keep being the worst team in the conference and call that progress. You have to be better than Baylor. If KU isn’t good enough to beat Baylor, Beaty gets fired. Period.
You also can’t just keep being a bottom two team in the conference because that worst team is going to fire their coach. You have to beat one of those teams that is holding out some bowl aspirations, but probably won’t be ranked. That’s that next tier of games. And you need to win at least one or two of those games at your place, and maybe be able to steal one on the road. That’s progress.
If you can’t do that, you’re done. Period.
I get that KU isn’t necessarily better than any of those teams. The hangup is that Beaty needs to demonstrate some sort of progress, otherwise what has the last couple of years been for?
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Realistically, The one chance KU has of of winning a conference games is against Baylor and the Vegas line now has Baylor favored at -7.5. KU will be an even bigger underdog the rest of the way. A win against Baylor might change things some but a loss would be pretty bad and likely the end of Beaty’s tenure.
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Blowing out a bad Rutgers team still felt good. The bottom of the Big12 (not counting KU) has been decent and most of the teams have been quite good.
In the final 2017 ranking (Athlon Sports & Life), KUs Big12 opponents were ranked: 4) OU, 11) TCU, 16) OkSt, 30) Iowa State, 36) Texas, 41) K-State, 46) WVU, 64) TTU, 102) Baylor. I don’t know anything about Athlon, it was just easy to find on Google. I’m assuming other rankings won’t be wildly off from this.
My point is, I would be surprised if we’ve played any conference opponent outside of the top 120 the last 5 years. Last year there were 7 teams in the top 50. That means to get 2 wins in conference, you have to be a top 60ish team. My guess is that KU has not been a top 100 team in the past 8-9 years. We could be top 75 and still get only 1 conference wins given the strength of the conference.
The year that KU gets 2 wins in the Big 12, the conference will appear “weak” and all teams will be punished in the rankings.
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@JayHawkFanToo All of those teams have a long history of coming into Lawrence and playing flat whether it was Gill, Weis, Bowen or Beaty. It’s the 11am kickoffs with 10,000 people in the stands that suck the energy out of those teams and have them vulnerable to an upset multiple times against multiple KU coaches. It’s not a one time only deal.
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KU is listed as a 7.5 point underdog to Baylor, arguably the worst team in the conference not named KU…and the game is in Lawrence. Do you really believe KU wins 3, 4 or 5 conference games? I really wish it would but I just don’t believe it will.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
KU is listed as a 7.5 point underdog to Baylor, arguably the worst team in the conference not named KU…and the game is in Lawrence. Do you really believe KU wins 3, 4 or 5 conference games? I really wish it would but I just don’t believe it will.
No your wrong , the game is at Baylor not in Lawrence. - -7.5 underdog? - well it’s getting better it was at 9.5. - There are a lot of Baylor fans that think they are in trouble with us Saturday. - I’m like you though I don’t see us winning many conference - -Baylor maybe , who else? - - K-State? - - maybe very little bit but maybe. - -Texas Tech? - -no way – Iowa State probably not - wish we would and who knows we might sneak a 2nd somewhere. We are getting better have to crawl before we can walk - -Conference is here - now we will see. You can take this to the bank , bet the farm these teams gonna start loading the box making us prove we can throw the ball with some consistency - -throw down field and have success watch and see - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Thanks for the assist, the game is indeed at Baylor.
FWIW, the opening line is what Vegas thinks is the most likely outcome and both sides will bet evenly based on that number. Once bets start coming in, the line changes, not because one team is now suddenly better or worse than the other (unless an injury is reported) but it is done so both side will bet equally and the house is guaranteed to make money on the vig.
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@JayHawkFanToo Go back and read what I said near the very beginning of my initial response to you about how many of those games I said KU would win.
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I have more than one poster replying to my posts so I must have missed something.
I said KU at most wins one game (Baylor) and you said you disagree with my assessment but then you say you don’t think KU wins any of those games either? Don’t we actually agree?
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I will be very impressed if KU beats Baylor.
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@JayHawkFanToo I disagreed with you writing those three specific games off as losses because there’s enough history of OSU, TCU, and Texas coming into Lawrence and those games being much closer than anyone would have predicted.
If those three teams play their A games against KU, then yes, they will blow KU out. There’s enough history though that makes me think at least one of those teams will show up flat against KU and KU could pull an upset that way.
If KU is going to pull an upset this year, it’ll probably be against one of those 3 teams this year.
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Fair enough but those would be huge upsets since OSU and TCU are top 20 teams and Texas is now #33 and climbing. The passing game better pick up because conference defenses are going to get ready to stop the run. We will have a better idea after the Baylor game.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Fair enough but those would be huge upsets since OSU and TCU are top 20 teams and Texas is now #33 and climbing. The passing game better pick up because conference defenses are going to get ready to stop the run. We will have a better idea after the Baylor game.
Agreed. - -this is what I have said. - -The Big 12 defenses are going to make us prove we are capable of throwing the ball - -stack the box. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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I agree with @justanotherfan, Baylor is a must win on all fronts if Beaty wants to stay. I wouldn’t put as big as an emphasis on this game if we would’ve d beat Nicholls. That game still ticks me off and here’s the sad part they have gotten beat by twice by double digits since winning in Lawrence. They ain’t that good, we just weren’t ready to play. If we played them again Saturday we’d win by 20 IMO.
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It’s great what the two wins have done for KU football fans. KU is a 7 and a half point underdog at Baylor. We may actually talk about a W in Waco. Starting QB Bender is going to have to throw the ball some to keep Baylor’s defense honest. What’s up with Sims and his drops? I hope Meacham and Beaty are working hard on the medium level passes, 8-12 yds. Baylor and the rest of the BIG 12 will load the box to stop the rush, so Bender’s passing and our receivers’s catching must improve. I’m actually looking forward to the Baylor challenge rather than dreading it like years’ past.
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stoptheflop said:
It’s great what the two wins have done for KU football fans. KU is a 7 and a half point underdog at Baylor. We may actually talk about a W in Waco. Starting QB Bender is going to have to throw the ball some to keep Baylor’s defense honest. What’s up with Sims and his drops? I hope Meacham and Beaty are working hard on the medium level passes, 8-12 yds. Baylor and the rest of the BIG 12 will load the box to stop the rush, so Bender’s passing and our receivers’s catching must improve. I’m actually looking forward to the Baylor challenge rather than dreading it like years’ past.
I agree with you about actually looking forward to a game on a Saturday instead of dreading another beating. - -How long has it been since I’ve been able to say that? lol - Now in the end run we may get our butt’s stomped - - AGAIN in Big 12 play but I truly feel we might be a little more competitive this year time will tell , but at least it’s cool to actually have a little something positive to say about KU football. Maybe - -just Maybe we can get this thing to start getting turned around.- -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
