Time for Point Distribution Query
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I’ve been having some fun the last few days, but now it is time to get serious.
Where are the points going to come from this season?
My specific questions are:
1.) Is Selden going to get 15 FGAs per game?
2.) How many FGA’s will the starting PG get?
3.) Will The Designer be our leading scorer most games?
- Who is going to score the most from the 5 spot? (this assumes that a committee of Traylor, Alexander, Lucas and Mickelson are likely to compete for those 40 minutes at the five plus 10 minutes of backing up The Designer with some of them focusing on guarding the post and rebounding, while others may be asked to score more. Who among the committee is going to score the most?)
5.) Who will score more at the 3 on a points per minute played basis? Greene or Oubre?
6.) Is Svi going to be a scorer this season, when he is in the game, or is he just going to be gluing when in?
Alright, the water is chummed!
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I want to put a plug in for this thread that could offer some answers on where the offense will come from:
Next years stat lines using stat lines from old ESPN top 100 rankings
All credit to @Statmachine who crunched the numbers.
Projected stats according to the analysis (explained in the aforementioned thread):
- Cliff Alexander …29.9mpg…15.1 ppg…9.6rpg
- Kelly Oubre …24.5mpg…8.5 ppg…3.6rpg
- Conner Frankamp 32.3mpg…10.6 ppg…5.8apg
- Wayne Selden …31.0mpg…14.1 ppg…5.2rpg
- Perry Ellis …30.7mpg…16.0 ppg…9.3rpg
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My specific questions are:
1.) No. No player in the Bill Self era averaged 15 APG; the closest were Sherron at 14+ and Simien at 13+. all other players were well under that figure
2.) Depends on who the PG is but I would say under 10…unless Fran Mason decides to regress to HS mode and goes back to being a volume shooter
I just don’t think that would happen under Coach Self.3.) Yes
- Traylor likely will not play 5, he will play 4. Alexander has the inside track to score the most at the 5; Michelson is more of a defender than a scorer and Lucas somewhere in between.
5.) Trick question. It depend heavily in playing time and attempts.
6.) It depends on how the other players have developed over the summer. If the returning players have made good progress, Svi might not contribute or get much playing time; I see him being a huge contributor in his second year.
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Alexander @ 15.1 ppg is going to make or break statmachine’s system. It’s a hairy chested leap. I hope he is right. It would mean Selden and someone else would have easy pickings! It would mean title. It might mean ring!
But I admit. I am having a crisis of faith!
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Good, snappy answers. So: will Selden average 13-14 FGAs?
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More like 8-9?
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@jaybate-1.0 I think, well hope, that we see a more team game and that scoring and attempts is pretty even across the board. (among 5-7 players)
1.) No, 8-10 average. He will have some games when he gets hot, has a MUA, or has to force things which will make it higher on those nights.
2.) Starter, 6-8 attempts. PG position, 10-12 attempts.
3.) Perry won’t be leading scorer in more than 50% of games, but he may lead scoring in more games than anyone one else. Again hoping for balanced scoring.
4.) Alexander. He will score points from the 4 and 5 spot. I think one of Lucas and Mickelson will cut into the minutes of one of Perry, Traylor, Alexander; for defensive purposes.
5.) This is a tricky one. I’m not really sure who starts so I don’t know. My thought (guess) is that Greene will score more per minute played, but will also get scored on more per minutes played. Oubre will score more per game and will be a good defender and that will keep him on the floor. But I will say, from what I saw on the camp game videos, that neither of them had to play defense fighting through screens and such, plus we don’t how much help that position will have to give on defense. Wow, I hope that makes sense!
6.) Another tricky one. You sold me on the idea of “making the easy play” and I think that will apply to all on the team. So I’m leaning more to gluing, but I feel 50/50 because the easy play for him may be to just shoot the ball. However, if he’s not effective at which ever one HCBS wants then he will be riding pine.
Once the rotation is set, I feel like anyone of our top 5-6 will have a big game while another disappears, and the rest score about 10-12 ppg. And I think it could be a different guy in all those situations in each game. Again, I hope that makes sense!
Great questions!
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I suggest starting the analysis with “how many FGAs will the team get?” This goes back to drgnslayr’s point about winning by getting more possessions. Will we disrupt more, allowing us to run more? Will we get lots of offensive rebounds? Blocks in bounds? Defensive rebounds with good outlet passes?
In other words, how will we create extra possessions, and especially transition possessions where we don’t have to run our half-court stuff to get a shot?
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Self’s teams typically score from 75-81 pts per game. Typically 3 guys will average double figures with 2 to 3 averaging from 7-9 pts as well. When you look at this team, you see 2 obvious candidates to lead the team in scoring in Ellis and Selden. Then our 2 stud freshman who are likely to start Oubre and Alexander somewhere in the 8-12 pt range. The uncertainty in that situation is does Oubre beat out Greene, and does Self go with the smaller Alexander to start games over Lucas/Hunter.
Wildcards are who starts at PG, does that player get a majority of minutes. Will Traylor get more minutes off the bench or is his 17-20 minutes projection limit him from scoring a lot. What is the minute’s shakedown at C/ back up and where does Svi and Graham fit into this teams plan. Here’s my projection…
Ellis- 15.4 ppg. Selden- 14.7 ppg
Oubre- 12.1 ppg Alexander- 9.5 ppg Mason- 7.1 ppg
Greene 5.5 ppg Traylor 5 ppg Mickelson 3.4 ppg Frankcamp- 3.4 ppg Lucas- 2.7 ppg
Svi- unknown til practice. Graham- unknown til practice.
As I have it right now about a 78 pt average. I could see this team scoring less even without projecting Svi & Graham and the walkon’s less than 1 avg. I’m relying on Selden’s health and expanded role to give him the bump I think KU will need from him. Ellis we know can score and hopefully he finally realizes how aggressive he can be and how that can affect his game this year. KU won’t be successful is Ellis isn’t the player we need him to be.
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I like your numbers. If the end of last season is an indication, Traylor might be in the 9-12 PPG. More importantly, if Frankamp finds his groove from the 3, I can see him being closer to double than low single digits and becoming an important contributor.
Last season, KU did not have a consistent 3-point shooter, although at times we saw glimpses from Tharpe, Frankamp, Wiggins, Mason and Selden (and also Green), but none of them could do it consistently, which in turn gave opposing defenses more leeway. Having a deadly 3 point shooter would help open up the inside game and give the bigs an edge. On paper it looks like this team has the potential of being a good 3-point shooting team, let’s hope that at least a couple of players can do it consistently.
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- No, Selden will not get that many. He will get a lot though. 2.PG will probably not take a lot of shots. 7-8? 3.Perry most likely will be our leading scorer.
- Alexander will have the highest scoring avg. from the “5”
- Anyone’s guess…I’ll go with Oubre. 6.N/A. I don’t think Svi plays very much.
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Beddie,
I like your projected PPG predictions. I might move Oubre and Greene a little closer together…but who knows.
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
I like your numbers. If the end of last season is an indication, Traylor might be in the 9-12 PPG. More importantly, if Frankamp finds his groove from the 3, I can see him being closer to double than low single digits and becoming an important contributor.
Last season, KU did not have a consistent 3-point shooter, although at times we saw glimpses from Tharpe, Frankamp, Wiggins, Mason and Selden (and also Green), but none of them could do it consistently, which in turn gave opposing defenses more leeway. Having a deadly 3 point shooter would help open up the inside game and give the bigs an edge. On paper it looks like this team has the potential of being a good 3-point shooting team, let’s hope that at least a couple of players can do it consistently.
Agreed if Self roles with Shooting then my Frankamp projections are off base. I think Mason improved this summer and right now as he was the backup has to be considered the leader to start. I prefere Conner because of his low turnover/ shooting and poise he showed at the end of the year. I think he would make better decisions with the ball and with more time would prove just how good a shooter he is. That would give the team the 3 point shooter it needs.
I project Greene to have a decent impact in points with his shooting even though I think Oubre starts and gets a lot of the minutes.We need his come in and hit shots mentality that he showed last year. More minutes and improved feel for the game/ defense should get more trust from Self.
I think Traylor see’s about 20 minutes a game, we frankly need his energy and improved game. He’s the glue on this team.
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This is what I hope:
This is the team that really puts it together on offense. “Team offense” becomes the spirit of these guys instead of forced upon them by Self’s structured “pass it around the horn until 5 seconds left on the shot clock” offense.
I really have the feeling that this team wants to form their own mold instead of being a team trying to mimic past teams.
We are in need of this. We need a team that can just go out there and feel it and do it. I’m not saying they shouldn’t be disciplined… but that the right things should be executed because they feel it instead of being forced into it from coaching rigidity.
That rigid approach to offense needs to stop. It’s been shackling our offense for several years now. It’s been making our offense look stiff, without a flow, and too predictable.
We have such an equal level of offensive talent this year. So many guys that can become big scorers. We aren’t a team like last year… “get it to Wiggins”… This year we’ve got equal weapons all around and we need to take what opportunities defenses give, and if they aren’t giving we need to execute enough aggression to create our own.
I really think the guy that completes the puzzle this year is Svi. He may have some maturing to do, and definitely the need to be more selective on his shots. But he plays a different brand of basketball from the rest of our perimeter guys. He can create for himself. He can also influence the rest of our perimeter guys on how to create for themselves. He should be a difference maker. I don’t think Kentucky has that this year, but I haven’t seen their new blood. Young was their guy last year. Glad he is gone!
