KU Just Lost to the Worst Team in Its Conference: 7-seed but where?
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I’m not complaining, but I sure would be if we had beaten TCU and one of the other five had lost to the worst team in their conference because one player had to sit, and they got the 1 seed in a region ahead of us.
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As I said… I’m not even sure we benefit by being a 1-seed with home court advantage.
I don’t think this team plays well when it has everything going it’s way.
Look at half of our losses this year… ISU and yesterday. We came out hot and built a lead, only to slough off and get beat.
Face it… we just don’t do well once we get a big lead. But man can we come back from a deficit!
This team has to get punched in the face first. We are like the winning boxer… who probably takes the hardest shots to the head before entering the ring. Boxers need to get hit several times just to wake up. We are the same. Our adrenaline doesn’t exists until we get punched in the face.
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@jaybate-1.0 we didn’t lose to the worst team in our conference, Texas an Oklahoma were the worst teams in the conference. - -We didn’t lose our # 1 sees, we still will be the # 1 seed in the Midwest… -It’s not like we are the only # 1 seeded team to lose in their post season tourney. - -# 1 team in the big 10 Purdue loses to # 8 seed Michigan, # 1 Dayton loses to # 9 seed both of these games were the quarter finals just like KU -gonna be more upsets. - - you need to remember this too, you don’t think the committee is going to take into consideration no mater how trival it may seem, but they are going to take into account we were playing this game without one of our main players, we have Josh yesterday no way we lose that game. - No one can tell me that Josh isn’t worth 3 points and 5-6 rebounds. - -Plus just like the commentators said last night, they said they don’t think this will have ANY EFFECT at all on our seeding.
They said we just got through winning our 13th straight conference championship, and this loss in no way did it effect the main goal of winning the NCAA championship, they said true winning the post season tourney would of added a little more BUT doesn’t/shouldn’t hay the much effect. - -Saying actually could be a blessing in disguIse give the guys a little more rest, I’m not THAT worried. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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It is the nature of the computerized systems as I outlined before. You can lose to a good team and move up or beat poor team and move down…crazy, isn’t it?
Now, the 7th ranked team in the top ranked conference is probably the equivalent of a #4 or better in a lower ranked conference and probably would win going away in many of the other conferences including the MVC. Also, the committee looks at injured or unavailable players when weighing in the losses; all in all not really a bad loss all things considered plus it gives TCU a chance to the automatic bid.
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Gosh - I really think folks are over complicating things. Seedings per selection committee rules are based on the overall body of work. 3 most important things are who did you play (strength of schedule, esp. non-conference); who did you beat (are there good wins); and who did you lose to (are there bad losses).
The reason that there can be at least some movement as a result of conference tournaments is that it can result in bad losses, i.e., first round losses by high seeds to the lowest seeds, and that there are opportunities to pick up multiple quality wins if you continue to advance.
KU had either the best or second best (to Villanova) overall body of work at the end of the regular season, but that is NOT the complete body of work that the committee considers. So, we “added” a not good, if not bad, loss and have no further opportunity to add quality wins. In contrast to us, others positioning for the #1 seed line have all avoided bad losses and are picking up additional quality wins - with more still possible - which would improve their overall body of work relative to KU.
Having said that, I think it is still likely that KU ends up with a #1 seed, although I don’t think that is assured. I think Gonzaga will stay a #1 at this point. Villanova will be a #1 regardless of what happens in their game tonight given that they and KU were close before and they advanced further and a loss to SH would not be as “bad” at the one to TCU given a much better RPI. IF UNC wins the ACC, having beaten Louisville, Duke and probably FSU, then they would certainly be a #1 - maybe as Lunardi had projected, the overall #1. But, if UNC loses, then they probably fall off the #1 line - at the very least, KU would stay ahead of them. The question mark is the P12. I think there is at least a possibility that that the winner there gets a #1 seed - whether Oregon, UCLA, or Arizona - most likely in that order - win out. One would get 2 more quality wins. And, if UNC does lose in the ACC tourney, then I think it is highly likely that the P12 winner gets a #1 seed and the ACC gets shut out.
So, I think there is at least a possibility that KU gets passed, but we would then end up with as no worse than the highest #2 and would still play in Tulsa and probably KC. Not the worst fate, because either Gonzaga or more likely the P12 winner would be the #1 in the bracket and I’m not afraid of any of those match-ups…
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KU and Villanova are pretty safe as a #1 seeds in the Mid West and East. Whoever wins the ACC will get #1 seed in the South and either the winner of the PAC 12 or Gonzaga will get the #1 seed in the West. It is really that simple.
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@truehawk93 Faith in the system? Read my tag line…does it sound like I have faith in the system?..lol. Normally I would be just as paranoid as you about the seeding , but our number of wins against quality teams is undeniable. Number 1 seed. You can take it to the bank.
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The USA Today rag still has us as a #1 seed -
USA TODAY Sports bracketology: Kentucky in the mix for No. 1 seed
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
KU and Villanova are pretty safe as a #1 seeds in the Mid West and East. Whoever wins the ACC will get #1 seed in the South and either the winner of the PAC 12 or Gonzaga will get the #1 seed in the West. It is really that simple.
I agree that Villanova is a safe #1 seed in the East. I guess I would agree that KU is “pretty safe” #1 seed in the MW, although I don’t think that is a slam dunk. Back to that in a second. I respectfully disagree that the ACC winner is the #1 seed in the South, UNLESS it is UNC. I don’t think there is any chance FSU, Duke or ND get a #1 seed if they end up winning the ACC. In that case, I think the most likely scenario is that UK moves to the top line in the South, IF they win the SEC or the P12 winner gets moved to the South as the #1 seed.
As to KU staying on the #1 seed line, I think there is at least some possibility they could be supplanted by UCLA if they win out (and assuming UNC does win the ACC). In that case, they would be 31-3. Worse overall strength of schedule that ours, but certainly comparable top quality wins - same win at UK plus 2 wins each against Oregon and Arizona, plus a decent Michigan win, and, more importantly, no bad losses. Again, I do think KU holds the #1 in the MW, just that it isn’t a slam dunk given that conference tournaments can impact the overall season long profile.
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I have been trying to simplify this issue, as per your suggestion. Ku has a terrible loss. It lost to the worst team in its conference. According to the criteria you mention, this should be a serious problem for KU, shouldn’t it?
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Thx for the assist. You took a good cut at explaining it.
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Thx. My bad.why didn’t we play those teams?
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@JayHawkFanToo Nova, KU, and Gomzaga are the 1 seed locks at this point. UNC is the only ACC team that can get a 1 seed. If Duke beats UNC tonight, the PAC 12 tournament champ likely gets the 1 seed in the South with UNC being the 2 seed.
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@jaybate-1.0 KU lost to a much lower ranked team but no matter how many times that you claim it TCU is not the worst team in the conference. That honor belongs to Texas even though they beat TT in the tournament. They were dueling it out with OU who TCU beat the previous night.
We should not have lost that game but let’s keep it real.
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@drgnslayr said:
I don’t think this team plays well when it has everything going it’s way.
100% agree. I honest to goodness wish we were a 16 seed this year. Seriously. We only seem to have our *hit together when we are the “underdog” this year. Teams we should beat by 30 - we either have to come from behind because we’re asleep the whole damn game, or we blow a 20 point lead because our heads are up our butts the whole time.
I can honestly see us being the first ever #1 to lose to a 16. That will be happy times…
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@jaybate-1.0 easy peasy my brother. Beat media darling Duke on neutral court. Beat media darling U.K. On their court. Makes up for down day vs TCU.
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@sfbahawk and @et al
Ah, I get it now. Sorry about being so thick!!! I had forgotten they do this three team play in to get to eight teams in order to play an 8 team tourney in three days, right?
So THAT’s why KU wasn’t playing the worst team in the B12; i.e., Texas.
Instead KU was playing a 17-14 TCU team (finished 8th out of 10 in conference), which was significantly better than losing to, say a 10-21 Texas team.
Or is there still something else I am missing in how they do it?
In turn, KU’s good overall record, 1st place finish and victories against Dook and UK keep it looking pretty good in comparison to UNC, Nova, Zona, and Zaga, who, for the sake of discussion, let’s say do not lose their first games in their conference tournaments.
Now for a little counter factual–what if KU HAD played and lost to Texas the first game? Would that have tarnished KU enough to make KU less lustrous than UNC, Nova, Zona, and Zaga, who for the sake of discussion, would not have lost to their cellar dweller opponents?
I’m trying to get a feel here for the sensitivity in the algorithm for tournament selection. @JayHawkFanToo was right to point you that this is to some extent an algorithmic approach to seeding in the B12 Conference Tourney and such formulaic approaches can lead to some what counter intuitive outcomes.
Had the conference been big enough not to have a 3 team play in, say, a 16 team league, and had KU actually played the worst team in this hypothetical B16, would losing to the cellar dweller have likely kept KU from a 1 seed in the NCAA Tourney, or likely not have changed anything?
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Thx for the ohmmmmmmmm. I needed that. I was getting a little overstimulated from confusion.
Your ohmmmmmmmm coupled with @sfbahawk’s take cleared the signal channels and I began to process, as outlined above.
Would appreciate you and anyone else weighing in on the question I just posed above, which is easier to refer you back to, than it would be to reexplain.
Rock Chalk to all for helping the feeble old jaybate 1.0 keep hanging with the youngin’s.
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Just because Mona Lisas smile was a little wry, it didn’t take away from the overall beauty of the masterpiece created by Da Vinci.
And so it is when the the committee selects the seeding for the NCAA tournament. They do try to use a formulaic approach, the best that they can.
My interpretation of your questions suggest that I ask you to not look at this in the vacuum of selection based on conference out come coupled with performance vs the lowest performer in your conference tourney bracket. That is only a part of the decision making process; and probably a very small part.
#1 seeds are awarded to the teams who create the best masterpiece of a season. BPI, RPI to some extent, Sagarin, Pomeroy, Strength of Schedule, Conference Strength and Ranking, Road and Neutral Site Records, records against other tournament teams are all part of the imperfect formula for which you search.
Kansas has an outstanding Road record.
They have an outstanding neutral site record.
They won the second toughest conference in the country by 4 games.
Some of these other elements must carry more weight than simply analyzing the two variables: Did they win their conference and how did do agains the low performers in their conference tournament.
My take, and hope I explained my thoughts clearly.
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@jaybate-1.0 and missed your other question:
No, I do not think any loss to any cellar dweller, regardless of the size of the conference, would have taken Kansas off of the # 1 seed line as long as all other variables are consistent.
If the Big 12 was ranked 5th or 6th conference in the country, that would impact it.
If Gonzagas conference was the top ranked conference in the country, that would have impacted it. With changes such as these, then yes, losing to a cellar dweller would likely move the needle.
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North Carolina going down.- -Not going to say who to cause we don’t wanna mention their name. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer54 impressive comeback by Duke.
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I don’t feel any better now that TCU just got blitzed by the Clones.
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@KUSTEVE I just saw Lundardi’s latest brackets. Again, I don’t care and we should enter in fairly good shape at this point. It’s not completely done yet, but at this point that #1 seed looks set. I just hope the committee doesn’t do anything stupid.
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@drgnslayr So far so good. Selection Sunday can’t come soon enough.
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@BeddieKU23 Oh sure…It’s what they do this time of year.
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Typically the top teams in most conferences get a bye and the bottom teams fight it out to advance to the next round. In the Big 12 the #7 seed plays the #10 seed and the #8 seed plays the #9 seed. As the #1 seed KU plays the winner of the #8-#9 game and would not play the #10 seed unless the both advance to the final game. BTW, TCU and Tech. were tied for 7th place but Tech, took the #7 seed by virtue of the tie breaker. Makes sense?
The NCAA looks at the entire body of work and when you look at the record, strength of schedule, home and away record, KU has done enough to secure a #1 seed notwithstanding the loss to TCU.
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If Duke wins the ACC tournament, they might very well get a #1 seed…do you think they would not give it to media darlings Duke and Coach K?
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- TCU is not the worst team in the Big 12.
- Kansas was playing without Josh Jackson.
- Kansas is currently rated 2nd in RPI and 3rd in overall SOS out of all teams in the country.
- Kansas has a 90% chance (courtesy of Teamrankings.com) to be a #1 seed.
- ESPN is a cheerleader for the ACC in basketball the way they are for the SEC in football. Don’t pay attention to Joe Lunardi.
- UNC lost to Duke tonight.
Right now there are 3 locks for #1 seeds (Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas). The 4th 1 seed will either be the PAC12 champion or North Carolina.
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@HawkChamp ya, your right - -hitting their stride I think - -But be careful were not surpose to Say that name here - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Hey, I forgot to mention/ask this to others… - -But in our game with TCU Thursday night I seen something and was curious if anyone else had seen this or noticed it. I even jotted down the time of the game sa was just curious as to what the hell was going on, so wondering - - –
With like 11:55 to play in the 1st half there was a timeout and I saw Coach Self ALL OVER I’m pretty sure LaGerald Vick, I mean they had to keep people in between them he was yelling at him, and then Coach Roberts stepped in between them and then Coach Roberts started getting onto LaGerald. - -Did anyone else see that or was I the ONLY ONE? - -Was curious as to what happened -thinking he must of either said something to Coach or really screwed up big time on the floor - -ANYBODY? - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer54 No biggie. Vick just violated the energy/hustle/effort rule.
It was at 12:03 in the TCU timeout after Svi’s layup. If you start watching (on Youtube) from at least 13:45 on, you will see Vick getting beaten by Fisher on a made layup while fouling him for a TCU 3 pt play. Then on the next defensive possession you will see Vick not deciding who to block out. He hesitates and gets neither candidate, and they get an offensive rebound and basket. Meanwhile, on offense, Vick just seems to be shuffling around looking lost, going through the motions, no effort to get open and didn’t look ready for anything, during the sequence that had a KU turnover and 2 baskets.
The chewing out only lasted about 3 or 4 secs though.
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@mayjay thats the sort of stuff that I dont understand. How long has he been with the team? Has he not been instructed during that lengthy period of time on what to do? Its not like he just started playing with the team and is confused about what the coaches are asking of him. He needs to take this down time and think about what his role is and how to execute better.
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@JayHawkFanToo Absolutely no chance Duke gets a 1 seed, they have 8 losses this year. Their ceiling is the 2 seed in the East and that’s only if they beat Notre Dame tonight. If they lose the ACC title game, they probably end up 3 seed in East or South
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@Texas-Hawk-10 absolutely. Duke is 4-3 in their last 7 games and has 8 losses on the year. That is not a 1 seed resume even if they win the ACC tournament. For my money they should still be a 3 seed even if they win tonight.
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Vick certainly has the athletic ability but (like everyone not named Mason or Jackson) he can ill-afford to take any plays off. As hard as Mason and Jackson consistently play, they have earned the right to expect nothing less from their teammates. Thanks for the huddle recap. Appreciate Self getting after Vick but I hope Frank holds his teammates accountable during the dance instead of shouldering all the burden/blame (e.g., taking full responsibility for the late game lob pass that Vick elected not to pursue – inexcusably bad form on Vick’s part, IMO, even if the ball was headed to the rafters he should have jumped).
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@mayjay I repeatedly saw him, Vick, standing in the corner making no effort to get open. HCBS used to never put up with that. I think this no bench team has him hogtied. I just don’t believe he’s going soft.
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Couldn’t capture the exact moment that Vick was below the ball, but he is jumping – late, tho. The ball is the orange blob to the upper right of the Phillips 66 sign.
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Thank YOU!
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I think it’s time to admit that this team has not performed to the level that we expected to start the year. We thought they would be a much tougher defensive unit and really get after it. I still don’t believe that it’s because of the short bench - that wasn’t a problem for the 2012 team, or Nova last year. I think too many excuse the behavior instead of saying that it is because some of the players are soft.
I can’t think of many teams that were great offensively but struggled defensively and still made the final four. I can, however, think of many teams of whom the inverse was true. If I had to pick, I would rather play great defense like the 2012 team. Good defense and rebounding will always allow you to be in games.
This team is what it is. They think they can get away with not playing defense and just outscore the other team. But that strategy has proven to be faulty and unreliable.
The only way this team makes the final four is through a bunch of upsets ala 2011 and hot shooting ala NOVA last year.
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@HawkChamp disappointed in the 1 seed!
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@HawkChamp Great offensively, but struggles on defense in the final four? Hmm only every one of Roy’s teams, but other than that I’ve got nothing.
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@dylans What’s interesting is that Roy’s title teams have not been too bad defensively, with one being top 20 in defensive efficiency.
In 2008-09, out of 343 NCAA division 1 teams, UNC ranked 39th in total defense.
In 2004-05, out of 330 NCAA division 1 teams, UNC ranked 19th in total defense.
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@HighEliteMajor if I’m not mistaken though. Those teams were near the top. If not the Top offensive team. Which made up for not having a top 10 defense.
Kenpom has us as #9 offense #30 defense. Which may suggest eh… Second weekend team depending on the path… Add in a lil JJ and some FM refuse to lose and it could be a great NCAA tournament. But I think the numbers would suggest not, for whatever they are worth
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@cragarhawk Right, UNC was #3 and #1 in those two title seasons offensively under the NCAA stats, and #2 and #1 with KenPom. Also, with KenPom, UNC was #7 and #21 defensively in their title years.
