Tonight's Huge Game!
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No question that the winner of this game is in the driver’s seat in relation to the conference title. I had hoped that ISU could beat WVU and set them back some but looks like Huggy will stay in the chase for the time being. You absolutely have to hold at home, beat the bottom half teams and steal a win or two from the top half teams on the road.
These are what I believe to be the critical games coming up and the chance of winning them:
- Baylor 60%
- At KSU 50%
- WVU 55%
- At Baylor 40%
- At OSU 55%
I believe the toughest game will be agains WVU. The KSU can be a very close game, give how much KSU gets up for KU or KU might win it comfortably. We will know soon how well KU matches against Baylor and it will probably dictate how the game plays in Waco. I threw OSU in the mix because they seem to play KU tough at home and being the last game of the regular season might have a huge bearing on the final standings. Holding at home against Baylor and WVU are by far the most important games.
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It’s critical KU wins tonight. KU has the most road games remaining in all of the league. 3 of them as you noted are well known places KU loses.
Winning against West Virginia at home is the other critical game because West Virginia’s schedule the rest of the way is extremely favorable to them.
The next 6 games or 17 days will decide the conference for KU.
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Baylor and Scott Drew have never won a game in AFH and most of the contests have not been close. Even though Baylor is full of studs I don’t expect anything other than a KU win.
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That is right, the average margin in the last 4 years in Allen is 16 points.
I don’t think we can rely on that statistic going into tonight. Baylor is so much better then the previous 4 teams that have come into Allen.
I still expect us to win but the significance of this game is off the charts for both teams and that’s what will make it a close game
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Yeah Motley is gonna have a huge game but I think KU can still win.
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@BeddieKU23 “I still expect us to win but the significance of this game is off the charts for both teams and that’s what will make it a close game.”
Truer words were never spoken my friend!
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Baylor has a history of NBA (or NFL?) big men and we’ve prevailed against them all. Motley will get his. But that won’t be enough for Baylor. If we win the backcourt fg% we win this one.
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@BeddieKU23 absolutely. Should be an awesome and tight game. We have the best backcourt in the country and best home court so I’m betting against Scott Drew yet again.
Rock Chalk.
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I’ll take those odds as well!
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Baylor for sure, can not am I know will be over looked by the guys, They know they are a very legit threat, A couple of things that need to be brought to your attention just was the case with Kentucky, you say who will match up with Motley? - - -very true & all I have read and heard it’s going to probably have to be Josh. - Yes could be trouble BUT just like was the case with Kentucky - - once again who is going to match up with Josh on the offensive end with Josh. - -Kentucky had no answer, Josh is a match up nightmare so that goes both ways for us who on Motley? - -them on Josh? - - -people speak of Baylor’s rebounding and yes they do rebound well - - BUT in reality Ku rebounds the ball better then they do. - -KU averages 40 a game - -Baylor averages 38 a game so that’s a wash.
Baylor still plays zone for the majority - - very suspectable to the three has been brought up multiple times - -you have to be able to hit but the open three from the corner is and has been there a lot all year long - -KU leading the big 12 in 3pt shooting could be if we are on not so good, - - -As far as the back court - -I’ll take our backcourt ALL DAY LONG against theirs hands down. - -ya they play some man, GOOD - -play man to man I pray they play man to man against us - don’t get me wrong - Baylor is very very good - BUT as long as we have Josh, Frank, Devonte, Svi – playing at the phog - - I’ll take my chances any day of the week. - - I’M seeing a KU win anywhere from 6-10 pts - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@BeddieKU23 Yep! Another big test tonight for KU. Gonna be a good game
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@JayHawkFanToo “So, you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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I hope Baylor’s team managers remembered to pack their big boy highlighter unis because this will be the most ridiculous environment the Bears have played in to date with control of the conference at stake.
As for KU, every opponent circles us on their calendar. I truly, truly hope our boys circled this game on THEIR calendars - preferably in blood. They simply cannot afford to start this game as they did in Lexington because Baylor has the potential to bury us.
Here’s to being the first team to 70!
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@approxinfinity exactly. As usual, the game will be won and lost on the perimeter.
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I think speeding Baylor up is one of the keys. Pressing occasionally is not a bad idea but we dont want to show too much because our return trip to Wacko is two and a half weeks out.
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75% from the FT line = KU win.
That - and if we score more points than they do…
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@HawkChamp that wingspan can’t fly down court!
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If Baylor wins tonight, we would have to win in Waco to share the title. We are a 6 point favorite tonight and a win would open the door much wider for #13.
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We need to go zone again. I don’t think we have anyone that can guard the post that Landen doesn’t guard. But putting him in the middle of a 2-3 would let us have LL guard whoever gets the ball.
Personally, I think our zone is scary. It has 2 quick guards up top to pressure. And if either get the ball it is a layup on the other end. Then we have two 6’5-6’8 uberwings that are long and quick enough to be disruptive, rebound and double the post. Plus, we have LL to rebound the middle and body up the other teams bigs. And finally, our guys need some rest. Because our starting 5 is clearly our best lineup. And we need to play those 5 together as much as possible.
We will see what Bill does. I’m sure he is glad he had a few days to gameplan after the UK game.
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@Kcmatt7 I hope he’s had time
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@BeddieKU23 What about JJ on motley? Hey gives up a couple inches but he plays bigger than he is, boards and boxes well. Maybe even get a couple over the back calls to put motley on the bench.
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@Kcmatt7 that’s interesting because I also heard that Nova couldn’t contain Carolina’s fleet of skilled bigs because they weren’t tall enough…we all know how that turned out.
If I were Self, I wouldn’t use the zone until th tournament, like in the elite eight. Iirc he only used the triangle and two once during the regular season before Carolina in 2012.
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@HawkChamp Didn’t they play some zone in that game?
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Just in case anyone wants to see the action live tonight…General Admission tickets are still available…frankly, I’m stunned.
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@Kcmatt7 yes. They fronted the ball side post man with a guard with a big behind which makes the entry pass very tough.
We should be able to beat Baylor at home playing normal man to man. They are not a high scoring explosive team like kentucky or carolina and they resemble Baylor teams from the past several years that we have beat. I think we should save the zone for down the road in crunch time, not for a home game.
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@Fightsongwriter JJ has good length, timing and quick hands. I agree with your suggestion
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If we play M2M, JJ on Motley is our only choice. I think we are going to have to play some heavy zone action here or shadow a wing off Wainright for the quick double when Motley gets the ball.
Honestly Motley is a huge mismatch for even Jackson. Jackson is a + defender but its different when your facing a 6’10 offensive machine. This is a matchup we need Jackson on the floor and not in foul trouble. Matching 2 guys that average 3 fouls a game a piece would seem to favor whoever can gain the advantage first. That’s why if Jackson can leverage his quickness and draw fouls on Motley it will change the complexion of the game.
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@HawkChamp I mean we need to win this one. Whatever you have to do. I would definitely come out in a M2M and see if we can hold them down that way. But, if you have to go zone to win you have to. We are playing for tourney seeding. Especially against another team competing for a #1 seed.
This is the first year the #1 overall seed gets to pick their region. If Baylor ends up there they would more likely than not pick KC over Memphis. Winning this game has bigger ramifications than you might think.
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@Kcmatt7 Your right we for sure need the win, although there are people off other boards that would disagree with you. - They say they would rather play in Memphis not KC. - -let me apologize in advance if I mis understood you about Baylor wanting to play in KC. - -Personally I’m actually not that worried about tonight. - I think anywhere from 6-10 point win for us. - - - after watching them for the last 3 games or so - -they are struggling not to say they are not good - -they are - -just not that impressed right now-- - -especially at the Phog - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer54 Yea I’m sure fans might want Memphis. But if I am the head coach, I’d rather play in KC. Players would be much more familiar with it. And since they are comparable flight prices and travel distances, I’m sure that it wouldn’t be a hard sell to the AD on that.
And I wish I had your confidence. Baylor has, for the most part, upped their game against the top competition this year. Drew is doing one heck of a job rn.
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@Kcmatt7 agreed they are good. - -and to be honest - - I can’t really pin point WHY I’m not to worried - -well maybe I just feel our back court and their suspectability to giving up open three’s with that zone we have always done pretty well against their zone - -their zone leaves the corner Three wide open 80 % of the time I’ve seen itall year long - -We will be fine - -keep the faith - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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My prediction for tonight…
Faylor comes out on fire and we play catch up in a slow paced game with lots of fouls, but we pull closer at half time. Then we come out on fire after the half to take the lead back halfway thru. Then Faylor makes a good run and takes the lead again to all of our dismay and hand wringing. Then Frank, refusing to lose, takes over, making numerous clutch plays. Coinciding with Frank power moves, Drew makes some bonehead moves and snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.
Some coaches have other coach’s number - Izzo seems to be able to rattle Self. Bill will outcoach Drew yet again tonight, 69 to 63, for the home win.
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that prediction would help Mason’s POY hopes. Another big time performance in a big game… He’s down to 4 home games left, I hope he makes them count
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“So how does KU win tonight?”
By controlling pace. Huggybear knew how to dismantle Baylor. They play “slow ball” so speed them up, force them into TOs. They have some young players that have never played in AFH. Crowd noise is a huge factor that when you combine it with speeding up the game, we quickly over-match Baylor.
Our player advantages are with Devonte and Josh. Josh needs to ignite us with some big plays. Devonte needs to be our guys focused on tempo.
If we have big games from these guys, I don’t see how we lose. Frank is important, too. He fills a stat sheet. But the mechanics behind the game, especially concerning controlling pace, that mostly has to come through Devonte.
We could lose this game if we don’t control tempo… very easily lose it. Or we could breeze through this game, just like WVU did, by pushing the pace that will create lots of TOs and easy buckets off of TOs, and by not allowing Baylor to run their offense effectively. Get out and pressure their guards, speed up the tempo… Baylor gets shut down.
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I liked your breakdown of each game moving forward.
I’m not too worried about the OSU game because either the B12 championship has already been decided… or if it all comes down to that one game I think our guys are ready to go down and finally win one in Stillwater.
We should win all of these games… but doubtful we will.
I think our toughest games are at KSU and at home against WVU. I’m usually wrong, though.
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Baylor’s starting 5 is made up 4th year players.
Lecomte is a player we might be able to speed up, he was horrible against West Virginia’s pressure and this will be his first time in Allen. He’s averaged over 3 turnovers in his last 4 games. That could be the key to stopping them.
I just hope our guys play free with passion and energy tonight. This seems like a can’t miss game for KU to play its best.
We have to make perimeter shots and limit them from doing the same. Lecomte is their only legit consistent shooter from 3. Freeman is 5-21 in the last 5 games. Omot who is a 6’9 SF is a spot up shooter and has played a lot more lately and made 3 big one’s in their comeback win over Ole Miss. I hope the crowd has an influence on their shooting.
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Oh right… Lecomte was a transfer, right? But he hasn’t dribbled a ball in AFH before, right?
Pace of the game… that will decide who wins tonight. That will decide which team shoots a high %, TO rate, etc.
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@drgnslayr said:
Pace of the game… that will decide who wins tonight. That will decide which team shoots a high %, TO rate, etc.
I hope you are right!
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This is why I had those games with low percentages, The toughest game might be at Baylor, depending ion the outcome of tonight’s game. If we play like WVU did and run them off the court, the Waco game might be much easier; however, if the game is close or they win, the game in Waco will be a b*tc since it would most likely determine the League’s champion.
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Baylor
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coach
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@drgnslayr I agree about the pace, but we should save a little something special for our trip to Wacko, like full court press, etc. We obviously need to win tonight, but the game at their place is important also.
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@HawkChamp we are saving a ready to be forgiven Bragg!
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The game tonight is a must. We don’t want to have to win in Waco…
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@drgnslayr I am hoping we will be fired up and ready for a little revenge when WVU travels to the Phog. So I would have said that KSU and both Baylor games would be tougher…but we shall see.
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One at a time
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Actually… that is what scares me a bit.
I think we want to keep our emotions “close to the vest” while trying to dismantle the WVU press. I’m afraid the more emotional we are in that game, it could work against us. We don’t want to be sensitive to becoming amped up because if it is the wrong kind of amping… we are in trouble.
I think we need the mind of an engineer when beating WVU. Calculative, planned properly, schemed, steady execution. We are almost better to be a bit robotic… in other words… play with great poise! Poise is what will beat WVU.
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Scott Drew listens to Nickelback.
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With a loss tonight Scott Drew will have more losses in AFH than Bill Self.
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you DO KNOW we are hexed tonight right? - -we get blessed with Dickie V whoopee lol - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
