Big-12 Contenders/Pretenders
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KenPom is good at weeding out most stuff even with just 8-9 out of the way. I do not understand K-St being #34 per KenPom though with the 339th ranked schedule. If K-St is the 34th best team in all of College Basketball- then College Basketball is significantly down from past years.
Texas Tech has the 340th ranked schedule, West Virginia 300th, Oklahoma 281, Iowa St 217, TCU 198.
Baylor and KU are the only teams in top 100 so far.
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FWIW, Jeff Sagarin has WVU as the #1. Huggy is a very good coach and he knows how to use the talent at hand. After Self, I would put Huggins second and Kruger third as the best conference coaches.
ISU has 3 or 4 quality players and a bunch of role payers; one injury to a key player and the team production goes down quite a bit. running on gas fumes left from previous teams; without the Mayor, their perfect storm is over
TCU and Texas Tech have played very soft schedules and their records are inflated accordingly. Once conference play starts they will go back to their usual place in the bottom half of the conference.
KSU is much better than anticipated and playing rather well as a team. Remember when everybody said they would blown out by Maryland and the real test would be how they do against St Louis. Well, it took a last minute shot by Maryland’s Trimble to beat KSU and they easily beat STL by 31. Liberace is not a good recruiter or good at keeping players but he is a pretty good X and Os coach.
Baylor has been the big surprise with big wins early in the season…I wonder if Scott Drew is suspended and the assistants are coaching like they did a few years ago. Some of the wins are against teams that now appear to have been over ranked but still pretty good wins. The first game against Baylor at AFH might decide the conference Championship.
OSU is probably the most improved team and might give other teams a run for their money.
OU is down quite a bit and they are at best a middle of the pack team.
Texas has a lot of talent and highly ranked new players but it also has Shaka “legend in his own mind” not so Smart, enough said. They will probably get better just by virtue of the raw talent they have but they will finish in the bottom half.
This is how I see it…
KU
WVU
Baylor
KSU
ISU
OSU
OU
UT
TCU
TTU
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West Virginia has played a very soft schedule as well as some others in the league that have been mentioned. The Virginia game was a marquee victory for them but otherwise they have feasted on weak opposition. Without Devin Williams & Paige they have struggled offensively to find an identity but as you said defensively they keep themselves in games with how much trouble they give teams pressing. We’ve also seen where Big-12 teams figure out the press especially in the 2nd game of the round robin. If West Virginia is going to be the toughest competitor for KU, offensively they are going to have to find a guy that can consistently score. Right now its more of a collective effort which works in the non-conference part but doesn’t really work when facing KU.
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Yes, but they have Huggy, a superior coach, and that fat check he gets every time he beats KU as an incentive…
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@Kcmatt7 Was that record prediction just a stab or did you actually look at all 18 games and say ok, we win this one, lose that one? If you looked at it a little more analytically, who are our losses against? I can’t ever see us losing at home, although Bill has found out 9 times it does happen. But this team has what it takes to keep the home streak going.
So three road losses. Our three usual suspects ISU, WVU and OSU leaves out Manhattan where we’re 3-3 in the last 6 years I think. And then of course Baylor. So there’s 5 places where we’ve lost more than once in the last half decade. WVU will be the most sure loss in that group in my mind. Not sure who else we lose to, but we’ll probably come out flat against one of the others, watch the fools storm the court, and come back to AFH for the revenge game and beat them by 25.
Excellent post @BeddieKU23 by the way.
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The schedule is friendly enough early where KU could be 5-0 entering the Big Monday game in Ames.
If KU beats ISU in Ames then West Virginia becomes the most likely 1st loss in Conference play. After that only @ Baylor seems likely at this point. I think we hold serve at home again throughout conference play. No Niang’s, Hield’s too worry about coming to Allen and winning
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I think you have identified the most likely pitfalls, although if I had to predict losses, I would say at West Virginia, at Oklahoma State and at Texas Tech. Tech gives us problems down there, although we usually survive the scare. One of these years, we won’t survive that scare. I suspect it may be this season simply because Tech is a little bit better than they have been in the past.
West Virginia is just a nightmare trip for us every year. Oklahoma State is a tough one for Self to prepare for, and I think there are some distractions down there for him.
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No one smart thought SLU was a test for KSU (they are kenpom #287) and MD is a one man team that also barely beat Okie Lite and is in the same range as UGA and Stanford. Not convinced of KSU at all. I think best case they are a fringe tournament team, not soundly in. Let’s see how they do in Allen. Imo TTU, TCU and KSU are all fairly comparable.
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Do you think it will make a difference with the Oklahoma St being the last conference game? Possibly a situation where KU is playing for the conference which would give the game some importance for KU… If the league is won before game 18 then certainly I could see them dropping the game if the perfect storm happens again.
OSU doesn’t defend anything well so far and that was the one thing Ford’s squads did in beating KU was defend… OSU is playing at a completely different tempo/pace then before
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Are you also a KSU fan? Asking because of your name.
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@BShark ha ha
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@BeddieKU23 so finish this up by telling us how we match up w/each team. Who would you start? Would you start 5 guards against ISU? Maybe Bragg? Can ll or doke play that game? Would that be our advantage? Can’t wait
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No. I explained before that once upon the time at the KC Star basketball forum that used to be very popular, my handle was JayHawkFan. Threads got at times heated and the administrator would ban every poster in the thread only to have everybody return with a slightly different handle; it really got to be an ongoing joke. My original handle became JayHawkFan1, JayHawkFanOne, JayHawkFan2, JayHawkFanTwo and finally JayHawkFanToo. When that forum shut down many of us moved to the LJW forum and kept our handles and then it moved with me once more to this forum…and that is all there is to it.
Having said that, I also tend to root for all other Kansas teams next and then conference teams, unless they are playing KU…and yes, I hate MU, UK and Duke. I am indeed a diehard KU fan.
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Ah I see.
I didn’t mind KSU when Martin was there, Those KSU teams had an identity. They were tough and were gonna rebound. Bruce is just really unlikeable to me. Same problem with GREGGGGGG at WSU.
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That is true; however, as unlikable as they are, particularly Marshall, they are still pretty good coaches.
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Gregggggg is a good coach, albeit a dick. I struggle to grant that to Bruce when his teams lose some of the close games in the fashion that they do.
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@wissox I did that because that was how many we lost last year. And I don’t see us losing anymore than 3 this year.
I definitely don’t think that we lose more than 3 games in the conference this season. In fact, I’m not sure we lose 3, because I have to think Bill knows how important that 1 seed and landing in KC is. If we are going to win it all, we need to land that region. So it will be ballz to the wallz during conference season so that way we can have an elite 8 game in East Allen. I mean this is it. The difference between 3 losses and 4 during conference play could literally be us in California instead of Kansas City. We don’t want that to happen and need to make sure it doesn’t.
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Gladly will share my thoughts about how we match-up against each team. I’ll start at the top.
Baylor
Probably the only team in the Big-12 with an advantage over KU in any area of the game. They have excellent size 1-5. Acuil Jr roaming the middle with his shot-blocking ability has really changed things for Baylor inside. Motley is also huge and can block shots. The zone looks big and with rim protection it makes it formidable.
How KU will beat Baylor- Josh Jackson will be a huge reason why. Putting him in the middle of the zone or finding the soft spot and using his play-making ability is a game-changer for KU. Previously we used Jamari or Ellis and Jackson is worlds better at passing out of that spot on the floor. Our passing ability is also better as a team overall. We can change directions better and find open shooters which if our guys are hitting will force Baylor to adjust. Then its about forcing Baylor on offense into jump-shots. Lecomte is a dangerous shooter but everyone else is streaky at best. If KU was to attack one player on Baylor that would change the complexion of the game it would be Motley. Often Foul prone, you take away Baylor’s biggest offensive advantage if he’s sitting.
West Virginia
Beating Huggins is easier this year then in years past. Defend West Virginia with aggressiveness and take care of the basketball. If they can’t force turnovers at a high rate and they can’t make easy shots inside they struggle to produce offense and keep teams off the scoreboard. They don’t have 1 player that KU should be scared of, or a guy that will individually change the game like they had last year with Williams/Paige combo.
Iowa St
ISU has no choice but to play small-ball because nobody on their team is a true post other than Merrill Holden. Bowie is undersized, Burton is undersized but makes up for it with sure girth and athleticism. Perfect game for KU’s 5 guards rotating in and out. Doke/Bragg and Lucas holding down the 5 for rebounding/rim protection. KU’s guards are better than ISU’s although ISU’s guys are veterans and can have big games. If KU plays up to its potential I see no reason why we can’t win in Ames this year. Niang was a match-up nightmare and is no longer. Burton has been trying to fill a similar role but doesn’t have the Basketball IQ that Niang had.
Oklahoma
OU is easier to defend this year without its fearsome 3 guys. Woodard has always been solid and has taken on more of a scoring role but either Mason/Graham can slow him down. James is an improving talent that could be headed on a similar path as Buddy Hield was. Similar games/ similar build. Their defense so far outside of the Wisconsin 2nd half has been pretty good considering all the new guys in the rotation. Lattin is still a defensive force who’s producing on offense now. I’m not sure how they will handle our guard heavy attack.
Texas Tech
Tech is playing faster then years past where Tubby “settle for one shot” mentality seemed to be his plan to try and beat KU every year. This tech team is experienced and has depth to play. Their best 3 point shooters so far are Aaron Ross & Anthony Livingston which are 6’8 guys (often a position that troubles KU). Livingston has big game ability with a 30 pt game already. The transfer from Arkansas St was a big pickup for Tech- he averaged 15 a game the last 2 seasons. We should be able to play our 4 guard lineup against them without any troubles.
TCU
Dixon has some size and they rebound pretty well as a group this year. Might be a game where KU has to play more traditional if there is any improvement from now until the opener in 21 days. We can play the 4 guard lineup and make them adjust especially if our guards can rebound.
Oklahoma St
As mentioned before OSU is playing at a breakneck style this year. Top 10 in tempo in the NCAA’s. Taking lots of quick shots. This is a team we can play the 4 guard lineup- another match-up where we probably need to play it in order to win both games because OSU isn’t very big. They have a lot of 6’6. types. Juwan Evans is a potential nightmare for Graham or Mason to guard. He was in Stillwater last year and he’s only gotten better. Shooting the heck out of the ball right now. These games figure to be high scoring/ high pace which benefit KU because at least KU can defend and force misses.
K-St
Basically the same team as last year. Stokes- their PG is healthy so that helps them. DJ Johnson has stepped up as a senior big. Having the typical senior year that KSU gets from its bigs. Barry Brown is a good player- their best player when he’s shooting well. Iwundu has been around forever it seems and he’s been solid for them. One player exceeding expectations at least to me is Xavier Sneed. He’s been shooting the ball well but the one game K-St played with a pulse Maryland he was scoreless. To be honest K-St only has 6 players that can compete on a nightly basis. They have little depth and they are stealing minutes during games from guys that would be walk-ons at KU. We shouldn’t be worried about them challenging us.
Texas
A mess at the PG position right now. Just imagine what Mason will do to them. Lots of talent and Shaka hasn’t figured out how to use it. They don’t really match-up with KU and I don’t expect much will change that would change that opinion.
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@BeddieKU23 did u see Baylor play any man? Can they keep up w/us in transition? Depth? ISU, who guards burton? Who scores more, Frank or morris
?
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I have not seen Baylor play man but their zone is more of a match-up based zone now so it has man principles as well. Lately KU hasn’t had much success with transition in Waco. We seem to jump out on them in Allen or in the Big-12 tourney which opens up the court more. We’ll see Baylor has legit rim protection this year and a PG I believe is their best in years.
Burton- I don’t know best guess is Jackson and hope he stays out of foul trouble. Burton can shoot the 3 so putting Bragg on him is not smart. Vick might get beaten because Burton has a good 50 pounds on him. Svi could be an option because he’s good at initial disruption on defense and Burton likes to get the ball at the top of the key.
Frank is the better offensive player and right now I would say him. Morris is really good, if we didn’t have Frank I’d wish we had him. Will be an excellent battle of senior guards. I’m sure each will be trying to 1-up each other
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@BeddieKU23 Frank’s a better shooter. Should be a great matchup.
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Sneed and Brown are definitely players. Brown was more ditr like Foster but when you looked at his film from HS the thought was there is no way there are 250+ better players in this class. Sneed was legit top 150 with offers from Cincy, Creighton, Illinois etc…
Agree about the 6 player thing. It’s Brown, Stokes, Wade, Sneed, DJ, Iwundu. After that…yikes and it will hurt them against good teams.
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As I mentioned before, the Baylor at KU game will probably be the key. a comfortable win places KU in the driver seat with less pressure for the return game at Baylor. A close win by KU or a win by Baylor places them in control with a lot less pressure for the return game in Waco.
On the other hand, KU and OU played a game for the ages at AFH last season that KU finally won in 3 OTs and then won the return game at OU in less dramatic fashion. I believe the first game took a lot out of both teams with KU losing 3 of the next 6 at WVU, OSU and ISU. OU beat KSU at home and then had two close calls at OSU and against WVU winning both games by 2 points before losing at ISU.
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I knew Sneed was a top 150 player I just didn’t think he’d be averaging double figures as a freshman. But it makes sense given the competition and the complete lack of anyone else on the team that can produce that he’s got solid early season numbers.
Yeah teams are going to expose K-St when substitution rotations happens or foul trouble occurs.
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Yeah the double digit part may not hold up in league play. It is definitely a bit of a thing where someone on the team has to take shots and when you only have 6 good players then those guys are going to get most of the shots.
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Good point about conference play. Regardless I think we will see most of K-St’s numbers regress in conference play and true colors will show
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It’s so hard with 6 guys and their 6 guys aren’t exactly on the KU 2012 level.
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My uneducated opinion is that KU will win the league pretty easily, even with C5 playing less good than last season. lol, less good.
Baylor has a chance to make things interesting but Shorty Drew seems to choke late in season and KU will absolutely eat up Baylors zone.
WVU’s press? No different. All 5 of our guards are probly salivating right now at the thought of that match up too.
The Big12 is down from last year. We wont get 7 teams in the dance. 4, maybe 5, maybe.
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I don’t believe the Big 12 is as down as you think. Bracketology currently has the Big 12 with 6 teams with Oklahoma on the First 4 out and Texas Tech in the Next 4 out that is 6 in and 2 almost in. If I were a betting man, I would bet the Conference gets at least 6, probably 7 and maybe even 8. The Big 12 is currently 69-15 (.821) in non conference games; the previous high was 2015-16 at 114-30 (.792); the Big 12 is still the top ranked conference.
I do think KU will win the Conference but it will not do it “pretty easily.” it will be a fight with Baylor and WVU and winning road games will be critical.
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FINAL: Iowa State falls to Iowa, 78-64.
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I have to admit I’ve only seen a few minutes of Baylor so far. I knew Motley would be back and would become a huge threat.
From what I am imagining, Baylor does have the guns this year to challenge anyone. That doesn’t mean they will be at the top of the Big 12 by year end. There is so many “intangibles” involved around putting together a big conference season. Sometimes teams catch a few breaks to help them out. But to systematically pick apart the rest of the conference to end up on top… guess I have the same doubts many have… I’m not sure Drew is prepared to have that kind of performance.
I don’t think most people realize just how valuable the head coach is in winning conference play, especially a conference like the Big 12. Don’t devalue Bill’s personal history in this league going back to his playing days in Stillwater (Big 8 back then). Don’t devalue his days at Kansas helping Larry Brown.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said:
FINAL: Iowa State falls to Iowa, 78-64.
Yeaaaaah that’s a really bad loss.
Also I have a working theory: what if UT-Arlington is extremely badass?
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First, great job!! That was a lot of work and very readable.
Baylor should be good for two reasons. First, Drew does better with guys that don’t know him well than with those that do; i.e., with teams with newcomers. Once his players find him out, then his teams tend to fall apart. Second, Drew has some good new faces.
WVU will be in the race, because Huggie will win a number of games with intimidation alone. The refs softening everyone up with the tight calling early will favor Huggins’ team late, because when the refs start swallowing their whistles down the stretch, the Mountaineers will already be practiced at unloading. The mayhem allowed down the stretch always favors WVU.
ISU’s Prohm proved he could coach a little last season, but he didn’t really get the best out of what The Mayor left him… Six seniors will get him enough consistency to mask his shortcomings. His real exposure comes next season.
Oklahoma surprises me in that I expected Kruger to be able to fill some of the spaces.
Texas Tech with a new coach in Beard will do better, but not great. Most every new coach does decent in the B12 it seems. They are a new mouse trap.
TCU is my pick for a surprise. Jaimie Dixon can coach. He’ll find one or two hoopahs to go with last season’s low ceiling prison bodies and upset some teams.
Texas is obstructed by Shaka.
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CyFan is fantastic right now.
“Greg McDermott 2.0”
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Thank you!
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Summary of ideas on Texas: why would anyone in the BigXII fear Shaka’s “havoc-D” when future hall of famer Huggins does it far better at WVU?
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The havoc is a junk system that allows less talented teams to keep up with more talented teams by virtue of superior hustle. It works when the more talented team does not prepare for it and gets caught by surprise.
At the 2004 NCAA, #9 UAB with Mike Anderson as coach used the so called “40 minutes of hell” that he learned from Nolan Richardson while at Arkansas to beat #1 Kentucky who was not prepared. The next game UAB played KU, who was prepared, and with Aaron Miles at the PG was able to easily beat the press and feed to an open Simien who had a banner day and scored 30 points, including going 18-20 from the line. KU won going away 100-74.
A team with a capable PG that can break the press will end up getting open easy and shots under the basket. KU has now capable guards to do just this and dominate the game.
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@JayHawkFanToo Yep, the way Aaron Miles handled UAB was perfect. I thought 2 yrs ago at WVU, KU’s guards were not as well prepped. But my comment about Shaka was only a slam on him & his choice of style, nothing more.
Self whipping Shaka last yr in Austin by 30pts was in my top 3 for last yr. (KY & OU were other 2). Shaka is awful, got nothing for me.
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@JayHawkFanToo agreed, when I played we practiced getting the ball in against 10 players and that was tough. With the likes of Mason, DG, Vick, Svi and JJ there is no reason whatsoever that we don’t embarrass teams that pressure us.
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The havoc allows teams with limited talent to compensate with top physical conditioning. At Texas, Shaka has top shelf talent and he still uses a system that depend on physical preparation rather than the natural skill of his players. Brute force over finesse, quantity over quality…whatever you call it, it wastes the talent available to him. This is not to say that top conditioning is not good, it is, but well prepared natural talent trumps that any day.
