Best posts made by DCHawker

So sayeth HCBS following the TCU game. Now, he was talking about the defense, rather than tightening up during NCAA games, which has arguably been a separate problem - and he said they need to work on “everything.” But, there isn’t time to work on everything, right? So what should be the focus?

A couple of interesting data points in a Washington Post article today (forget the source, its the data that is relevant) looking at vulnerabilities of several teams. I’ve noted elsewhere that this has been worst KU team from a defensive efficiency standpoint during the Self era, but a couple of things really leaped out.

According to the Post, opponents are shooting 36% from 3pt range against the 'Hawks - which ranks 212th!!! in the country. Already was an issue against ISU at Allen. Both Purdue and ISU are ranked in the top 20 in 3pt FG%. Is that mostly an effort issue? Poor ball screen execution?

Perhaps more problematic - we are allowing opponents to get 30% of available offensive rebounds - those second chance point opportunities help keep even poor shooting teams in the game and help wear down the defense.

And, not sure I believe this one, but apparently, we have the ball stolen on almost 10% of possessions, which ranks 294th in the country. Ouch. Certainly was painful against TCU when they had 12 steals and 10 offensive boards against us.

Can we “tighten” these things up? Anything else Self is likely focused on this week?

One other thing that we probably can’t fix at this juncture. Our FT % ranks 283rd in the country - only 4 teams in the tournament shoot FTs worse than we do. But, as Self noted, our FT % during B12 play was 3-4 % points higher than the season average, so at least that one is trending the right direction.

Let’s hope the boys can do some major “tightening” on defense - but otherwise play fast and loose…

CB got a start tonight - killing it. With 2 minutes to go in the 3rd, he has 17 points on 6-9 shooting, and 5 RBs…

In the past four seasons, when Dickinson has been the go to guy, his teams have lost 14 (projected), 11, 16 and 15. Correlation or causation? His numbers have been pretty consistent each year, as has been mediocre team performance. He gives you high teens points and around double digit rebounds per game, but is slow and doesn’t hustle (vast majority of the time), provides no real rim protection, and is a defensive liability. I’m opting for causation - he simply doesn’t make teams better…

We are on the cusp of the championship game, pitting another veteran, non OAD “system” team against a team heavily reliant on OADs and freshmen (and, arguably, formerly “system” to at least some extent, although perhaps less so now. Not quite the same dichotomy as Wisconsin and UK, but pretty close. In that vein, I’m trying to pull together various threads over the past week (indeed, entire season) regarding recruiting strategy and the merits or lack thereof of aggressively pursuing OADs.

HCBS earlier this year used the term “Fool’s Gold” to express his disdain? for (over)reliance on 3 pt shots in offensive scheming. I would argue that the real Fool’s Gold is making OADs central to the recruiting strategy, at least for KU and Self. Here’s why:

First, OADs don’t fit his system well - apart from learning the nuances, it requires strong fundamental skills that too many OADs obviously lack, on both offense and defense. What most OADs bring, at least on the offensive side, is shot-making and creativity, both of which are undervalued in the H/L, at least until the end of the shot clock. How many bigs during the past few years have come in with strong back-to-the basket skills and post moves - Okafor, Parker, Towns, and maybe Randle?

Two, it leads to recruiting over current players, resulting in transfers and even more program turnover, and may make it more difficult to get really good 3-4 star players (particularly to commit early).

Third, there are only 10-15 prospective OADs in each class, and only half of those actually live up to the hype - and, you can’t really know in advance which those will be (Alexander anyone?).

Fourth, at least as long as Calipari is at UK, it’s pretty clear that is the first choice of most of the elites - whether it’s Cal’s charm, Shoe Co, JayZ, Drake, Ashley, path to the NBA, cash on the barrel head or all of the above doesn’t really matter. What is means is that we’re waiting around until late spring every year to see what happens with UK - and, if we strike out with who is still uncommitted, then we are in full desperation mode trying to fill with 3 stars that no one else wanted, de-commits, and graduate transfers.

Fifth, and most importantly, based on the results from the past few years, it appears that the OAD approach only succeeds if you are really able to get multiple guys at the top of the class to commit - being able to put overwhelming talent on the floor, regardless of (in)experience level. The numbers don’t work - this is really a basic math problem. If there are just 10-15 prospective OADs each year, let’s assume UK gets 3-4, Duke 1-2 and AZ 1-2 (esp. the west coast guys), then the real pool for us becomes smaller. I would argue it’s simply more challenging for KU and Self to get the guys - some of it is system, some of it is Shoe Co, some of it is the Midwest and relative exposure.

That’s the theory - what’s the evidence. I would argue that we’ve seen all 5 problems manifest themselves at KU the past few years. We’ve had the consensus 2nd and 4th ranked classes the past two years (and 13th and 18th before that) - with 9 and 10 loss seasons and early exits to show for it. Correlation, but not necessarily causation. Let’s look at the broader “market”.

There are clearly too models for relatively consistent deep tournament runs and championships. One is the Nike stack, multiple OAD approach - let’s face it, it works. Maybe not guaranteeing championships, but UK now has 4 FFs in the past 5 years, and add Duke this year. AZ has 2 straight E8s. The other approach is the antithesis of the OAD/stack approach - teams led primarily by tough, experienced veterans, maybe augmented by underclassmen. MSU and Wisconsin this year are illustrative. Just look at their class rankings over the past 4 years (basically comprising their current rosters): MSU - 50th, >50th, 12th and 23rd. Wisconsin - >50th, 45th, 45th, and 50th. Izzo does recruit and occasionally gets elite players, but it certainly doesn’t appear that he is all in on OADs. Over the past 5 years, including the incoming class, I think he’s had just 3 5 stars - Dawson, Harris and an incoming player. Trice was a 3; Valentine a 4. Ryan has had just 1 - Dekker. Kaminsky and Jackson were 3s.

Apart from MSU and Wisconsin this year, look at 3 of the last 4 champions - Louisville and UConn twice. None of them had OAD stacks - I don’t think they had any OADs - they were characterized by veteran teams that played defense and had great guard play.

Let’s look at KU in this context. Self brought us 6 30 win seasons in 7 years with 1 NC, another FF, and 2 E8s - all without reliance on OADs. Indeed, very few top 10-15 recruits. Those were all typical Self teams - hard-nosed, strong rebounding, difficult to score upon, pound it inside. It worked and it worked consistently. Don’t know about you, but I loved it. A lot of guys that may not have been particularly talented (e.g, Reed, Morningstar, Releford) but they understood the system, and more, importantly, bled Jayhawk blue. They wanted to play for Kansas.

What happened? We lost the '12 championship with a classic Self type team to a UK stack of OADs and TADs. We were out-talented - even more obviously so when you look at the NBA (non)careers of the guys on those teams. I would argue that was a great coaching job by Self - we got to the finals with and hung with an uber talented UK team with a bunch of primarily 3-4 star guys. Rather than tweak a bit, I personally think Self overreacted to that loss and decided he had to compete with Calipari on his own terms - which, for him and KU, is the Fool’s Gold approach.

We’ll see how the next few weeks play out. Maybe Self will get Diallo or Maker, and Brown, in addition to Bragg. 2 OADs and one likely TAD - matched up with the returning veterans, it could be pretty formidable. But, if I had to bet, I would bet that we don’t get any of them. Then Self is begging to get Thorne for a year, maybe some Euro lug (a la Gonzaga) and trying to pick up juco or unwanted 3 star.

I’m not sure whether I hope I’m wrong or not. My own preference is to go after the 15-75 guys who will be around 2-4 years, who learn the system, and most, importantly, want to play for Kansas, rather than us being a second or third choice and brief way station in their basketball lives.

@KUSTEVE I would respectfully suggest it IS a matter of perspective, not lack thereof. And, the perspective is the recent past and heightened expectations. I am well old enough to remember the Owens years. A few great players, a couple of really good teams and FFs in 71 and 74, but otherwise very up and down. First with Larry and then continuing with Roy and through HCBS, we’ve had an unprecedented run of consistency at a high level. While Roy didn’t get the NC, he got us to several FFs and had some of the teams that were the most enjoyable to watch and easy to root for. It many ways, HCBS elevated us even further. 6 30 win seasons in 7 years, a NC, a runner-up and a couple of E8s. He has had a system and recruited players that fit that system with great results.

We’re all spoiled rotten as a result. So, the angst expressed in the many posts and threads following MSU - and really on the heels of last year - seems to be from the perspective of an elevated perch - where we’ve been the past couple of decades and where we hope/expect to continue to be.

And, from that perspective, the last couple of years haven’t measured up. The most losses in a two year period during the Self era, along with early exits and some really bad losses. What everyone is struggling with, at least I am, is whether this an anomaly, or has it become a trend? Is it Self, changes in assistants, changes in the college game/recruiting environment (and failure to adapt to same), bad luck, or some combination of the above?

Self was a great hire and has demonstrated over time to be one of the best in the game. His record is a remarkable one and we should all be proud of what he has accomplished at KU. My concern is his “system” doesn’t work well in the OAD era. So, he either needs to change his approach to recruiting or adapt his offensive and defensive schemes to better fit the personnel. Playing amateur psychologist, my own view is that a lot of this is an overreaction to the loss to UK in the NC. He had a classic Self team - veteran and gritty, could score efficiently in the post, and shut down other teams in crunch time. But, he/we lost to a more talented team. I think he decided that he didn’t want to be “out-talented” by the other guy(s), and he started to aggressively and almost exclusively go after the OAD types. The problem is that his system requires time to learn and execute well - on both sides of the court. And, we know that he has a quick hook, so the younger guys rarely get much PT - Wiggins was really the exception. Now he/we’re in a box - it’s not clear that he/his system and OADs are a good match. And, if you’re going hard after the OADs and don’t hit on them, you’re left scrambling to get 3 stars and cast-offs from other teams, e.g, Mason, Graham, Traylor, Lucas, Black, Mickelson, Coleby, some of whom have been and will be really solid contributors, but they aren’t elite.

Hope springs eternal - perhaps Diallo will be cleared and will see some adjustments in Maui that suggest all will be right in the world again - at least in Jayhawk land - and all this sturm and drang will be a distant memory. RCJH.

@KUSTEVE @BeddieKU23 @Texas-Hawk-10

Nice summaries. I approach it from a slightly different perspective, but still end up with a similar list of contenders - which I would define as a team that is actually capable of winning 6 straight games against good to really good competition (not just making the Final Four). If history is a guide, there are a few key attributes that have been common to almost all the champions over the past 15 years or so (with the 2 most recent UConn teams being notable exceptions to most of the common elements).

First, win-loss record. Other than the UConn teams, every titleist has had 6 losses or fewer -and only two champs had that many. On the flip side, most champs has 4 or 5 losses - only two had fewer - UK in '12 and the Hawks. What that seems to suggest is that the teams were battled tested - indeed, all came from power conferences and also had a few key non-conference games.

Second, talent. For the most part, all the champions had at least one high level NBA talent on the roster and in most cases, multiple future NBA players. Again, the two recent UConn champs were probably the least talented, although the '11 team did have Kemba Walker. Having the most talent doesn’t assure a title (see UK every year), but it’s tough to win without superior talent.

Third, efficiency ratings. Most of the champions over the past 15 years have been in the top 10 of the Kenpom ratings (champs ended up near the top; not surprising given the quality wins in the tournament itself). Again, the two UConn teams are the exceptions. Perhaps most importantly, defensive efficiency ratings seem to be particularly key - the point made that defense wins championships. The lowest DER for any champion was UNC in '09 - #21. But, they had the top OER rating. This has implications for a few teams this year, including…

How does this shake out. On the first point, it is likely that at least 2 of the top ACC teams will have 7 losses; maybe 3 of them. UNC, Duke, Louisville have 5 losses and FSU has 6. They all have games remaining against one another and then the conference tourney. Purdue has 5 losses now. So does Baylor. Kentucky does as well, but you could see them winning out. Is this dispositive?

Talent. UK and Duke are clearly have the most future NBA talent, but that has been true in the past. UCLA may have the next most talent. The key is that several other teams have at least one likely very good NBA player (I’m looking at you JJ) or more than one who will stick in the league. That’s enough given past history.

Metrics. Most of the listed contenders are fairly balanced - they have upper tier OER and DER ratings. UCLA is the outlier - they simply do not play defense at anything close to the level of a typical NCAA champion. Worrisome is that although the Hawks DER has improved a bit, esp. after Baylor, our current Kenpom DER is #28 - again, that is outside the final DER for any prior NCAA champion. We clamped down in the second half against Baylor - the question is whether the guys can continue to stay focused on the defensive end (and that may mean more minutes for Vick at the expense of Svi).

Taking them one by one:

Gonzaga. I’ve seen 3 of their games and I really like this team. Balanced and tougher than most prior Few teams. I think they are capable of going deep. They remind me somewhat of WSU a couple of years ago - great regular season and some quality wins (AZ, FL and ISU) - and blowing out lesser team, but have they been challenged enough to get through the gauntlet. I’m skeptical.

Villanova. They seem fully capable of winning it again - although I’m not sure they won’t miss Arch and Ochefu.

AZ/Oregon - I lump them together - both have talent and clearly are capable of making E8/FF runs. But neither of them beat anyone out of conference, and they simply haven’t demonstrated that they can beat teams that play a more physical style.

UK - can’t write them off with the talent they have, but they are young and the talent doesn’t seem Unibrow like incandescent. Watched them struggle to put away Georgia which was without its best player most of the game (Maten - who put 30 on us). They beat UNC in a shoot out, but that’s it.

UNC - I’m not as high on them as some others - they aren’t that good defensively (although held UVA to 41 points) - but they certainly can score and rebound well, esp. ORBs. But, it seems that they are capable of making a 6 game run.

Duke - the question is whether they are finally starting to gel and live up to the hype? They also aren’t very good defensively - just gave up 90+ points to Wake Forest! - but with the talent and K’s experience, they also seem fully capable of winning 6 in a row. Will be interesting to see how the last couple of weeks play out in the ACC.

Louisville/FSU - lumping them together as I think they are of a type - both have beaten several really good teams, but also inexplicable losses. Very big and athletic. I don’t think they are consistent enough to win 6 games, but I think either would be really difficult match-up for the Hawks that I would like to avoid.

Purdue/Wisconsin - I’ll throw in a couple of B10 teams just because, but I don’t think either of them is as good as the above teams. Swanigan can dominate, but doesn’t have a lot of help. Wisconsin is a nice, solid team that plays well together, but they haven’t beaten anyone of consequence.

Baylor - capable of E8 (again) or FF, and they have a great collection of wins (minus one against KU, of course), but that seems to be their peak.

Okay - the Jayhawks. We’ve demonstrated we can beat the best teams and win close games. Yes, I think we can win 6 straight, but if I’m being honest, I also think we have a smaller margin of error than some of the other teams. We routinely allow opponents to hang around and that’s a recipe for disaster in the tournament - miss a few FTs, go 2-20 from 3, or the other guys are lights out (like ISU). If DG can pick it up (I really think he is key), with JJ and BIFM, I like our chances. But, in the best case scenario, I would expect more of what we’ve experienced over the past month - every game within 6 points and a lot more gray hair…RCJH…

Jalen gets a double double with one made FG…

Two late after the fact observations. Remy missed shots and defense was an issue as always, BUT - when he is in the game and dribbling without much seeming purpose or direction, he commands attention and the court opens up for the rest of the guys - our offense as a whole is better when we have 2 true guards. Regarding Dave, he played a big role with his rebounding. The key was that there were less than a handful of plays run for him, and none of his 4 buckets came on those. By not making him play with his back to the basket, where he is very inefficient, it frees him up to face the basket and go after rebounds - and doesn’t clog the paint.

Everybody contributed big time. Jalen sucked shooting but was big on the boards in the 2d half. Dave set the tone at the start of the half. Mitch was more than solid all game. Ochai finally showed some life. CB too. Remy was Remy. But, I think the key was Juan D on McGusty the 2d half. Great adjustment by HCBS…

2 straight titles for the B12. Should have been 3. Let’s make it 4 next year - KU repeating, of course!

He is a freshman and missed some time, so he will have ups and downs. But, he has a good stroke, size, goes after rebounds, is better for spacing, and has a high bball IQ.

In another thread, I said if he was playing 20-25 minutes, he would be a 10 and 5 guy. I’m going to adjust that. It will be a bit match up dependent, but he should generally be getting 30 minutes a game from here on out. And, not all at the 2. He should be able to take Kev and KJ breather minutes, as well. If so, I think he can be a fairly consistent double digit scorer - similar to KJ - and 5-7 RBs per game.

EJ should be getting mostly Juan sub minutes. Just doesn’t work well to have 2 guys who don’t look to score on the floor together for any period of time. Puts more pressure on the other 3 and allows the defense to sag.

What has become quickly clear is that Shak is a difference maker. Allows us to win ugly…

Also impressive that he logged 24 minutes in the deciding game…

@HighEliteMajor and @jaybate-1.0 have engendered an epic and fascinating discussion throughout the season and continuing into the post-mortem about offensive schemes and whether HCBS has taken full advantage of the strengths of the players on this particular edition of the Jayhawks. I would posit that whether it’s the H/L or some variation of 4 out, 1 in - dribble drive - or Bad Ball, you have to have players that can execute the scheme.

Frankly, I go back and forth as to whether this is one of Self’s best or worst coaching jobs. The reason I say that is based on what I thought we had in terms of talent coming in. I certainly expected a lot more - a real shot at a FF and even a NC. Based on what we (or at least I) observed throughout the year in terms of what players demonstrated in game situations, both individually and collectively, I’m not sure I understand how we managed to get #11, a #2 seed, and 27 wins against the schedule we played - seems like smoke and mirrors. I actually thought Self demonstrated more flexibility - that’s not necessarily saying a whole lot - than in past years.

The preseason optimistic scenario was based on the the assumption that Ellis was going to be more of a go-to, consistent 18 ppg scorer, that Selden would significantly increase his production and become the second go-to guy, scoring in the 15 ppg territory, that Mason would improve over his 1st year and become more of a true PG (and, he would have a solid back-up in Graham), that Alexander and Oubre would live up to their OAD hype, that Svi would be a bit of an X-factor (based on the skills he showed in Europe), that Greene would step up and split the 3 with Oubre and be the designated sharpshooter, and that Hunter would be a Withey-lite providing some rim protection (based off Ark numbers), with he and Landon providing solid minutes while Alexander developed.

How many of those expectations were met? Ellis was matching his by the end of the season - but not consistently before that - until he tweaked his knee. Selden - um, no. Mason, absolutely, with a big caveat, which I will touch upon in a moment. Alexander - #2 big to Okafor coming in - night and day difference between the two in basic skill sets. Oubre showed flashes, but needs more experience (which he will probably have to get at the next level), and ultimately didn’t produce at the level of other 2-3s coming in, e.g. Winslow, Booker, Williams. Greene turned out to be one-dimensional. Svi and Hunter? Speaking for myself, I liked what I saw of them when the were on the floor, obviously not often, and wish Self would have played them more, but we don’t seem them in practice every day. Lucas was very solid; he’s just limited. Graham, I think, met or exceeded expectations and I look for much more from him in the next couple of years.

It ultimately comes down to the players, and both individually and collectively, there are some real skill deficiencies that revealed themselves that I would argue made it challenging to find a scheme that could work consistently, esp. against a good defense/opposing coach. I really don’t mean to come down on the kids - some of this is due to the AAU culture, who they played against in HS v. in D-1, etc. And, I think they are good kids, I’m glad they chose Kansas, and hopefully, those who will stick around will benefit from the summer tour and get better with more experience.

Having said that, collectively, we didn’t have anyone who could finish at the rim, esp. against L&As, but really against any type of interior presence. No one. We are the most blocked team in the country. We don’t have a very good passing team, which both H/L in terms of entry passes and dribble penetration and kick-out demand as @sfbahawk pointed out. Svi and Graham are probably the two best passers - but they weren’t our starters. Are/were we a really good shooting team, esp. from 3pt range? Our numbers were really good early in the season, not so much as they year went on. Scheming? Fool’s Gold? Tired legs? Defenses adjusting? Reversion to the mean? I don’t really know. What I can say is that I’m personally comfortable with Greene taking any 3p shot when he is spotting up and wide open (and, when his head is in the game). I’m comfortable with Mason taking a wide open 3 when he is leaning into the shot. I’m generally comfortable with Graham taking an open three. Although he had a hot streak in the middle of the season, I don’t think Selden is a shooter from range (3 for his last 26 by the way). Oubre - can make them, but I don’t have a high degree of confidence. Unfortunately, I don’t have a high degree of confidence in any of them shooting a deep 3 coming off a screen at the top of the key or on the wing a la a Ron Baker, or making a contested 3. Does anyone else?

That’s on offense. On defense, collectively, we have some height, wingspan, speed but not great amounts of any of them. We don’t block out well. Footwork across the board is generally poor - don’t keep low center of gravity or slide well. We reach a lot, picking up cheap fouls. We too often get beat off the dribble. We don’t generate many TOs, at least leading to easy buckets.

Breaking them down individually:

Ellis - he can shoot from 15-18ft and has superior post moves, but he really needs space and he just isn’t particularly effective against L&As. He is most effective when he facing a 4 that he can take off the dribble from outside the lane, or can post against a not-too-big and the lane isn’t clogged. To his credit, his defense has improved considerably, but that’s going from poor to adequate.

Selden - an enigma. Numbers essentially the same as a year ago across the board, albeit with more volatility from game to game. He had a strong 5 game stretch in the middle of the season, 2 really good B12 tourney games, and was key in the FLA game - but was mostly a non-factor or worse in the other 28 games. Basically, he’s giving you Morningstar/Reed types of numbers, albeit with more TOs and less consistency. But, they weren’t McDs and projected lottery picks coming in. He can’t dribble in traffic, he doesn’t have any semblance of a left hand, and appears to be clueless when driving into the paint. Some have posted that he is great defender on the ball - he is not. When focused, his size can be a problem for other 2s or 3s and he can shut them down. But, quicker players blow by him and he too often gives up on those plays. And, he doesn’t rebound.

Mason - love him. He’s a bulldog and fighter and so on. He was our best/most consistent player during the year (that a 100+ ranked player was says volumes). He improved significantly from last year. BUT, he came in as scoring guard and has yet to fully develop as a PG. The hallmark of being a good PG is making your teammates better - distributing the ball effectively and finding the open guy. Those aren’t his attributes, at least as yet. The WSU game was emblematic. Early on, he was able to blow by VanVleet and get some layups. WSU adjusted and collapsed back into the paint. Rather than penetrating and kicking to now open wings, he kept driving into the teeth of the defense with predictable results. He also doesn’t run a break well - too often taking it all the way himself rather than dishing or laying off to a trailer. He is also has a bad tendency to pick up his dribble in bad spots, esp. a long way from the basket. He is a gamer, however, and hopefully will continue to improve. But, I think next year the better move would be make DG the PG, and shift Mason to the 2.

Oubre - our best two way player, but still very raw. Really quick hop allowing him to get a lot of put backs, including on his own missed shot. Hasn’t really learned how to elevate or adjust when driving to the basket in traffic, however. Streaky outside shooter. Solid defender with long wingspan. With another year to two, he could be special player - but it seems likely that he has played his last game as a Jayhawk.

Alexander - what a disappointment, in so many ways. Feel bad for the kid how things have played out. But, he doesn’t yet have a college game skill set, and certainly not NBA.

Greene - not withstanding the long dry spell, he clearly has a NBA caliber stroke from three. Of course, the problem is that he is one-dimensional - he can’t dribble or create his own shot. And, you never know where his head is at. And, he is a liability on defense. Will he commit to getting better in all facets of the game; can he? Will he be around next year to find out?

Traylor - got to love Jamari and his passion, but it isn’t always well directed. He can do some things effectively in stretches, but you don’t want him handling the ball too much or shooting from outside 6ft. He really is a poor positional defender and doesn’t rebound well. He should be the guy that comes in at the 4 to give you 8-12 minutes of high energy play - he should not be getting anything close to starter minutes.

Lucas - most fundamentally solid of the bigs and he really stepped up given the Alexander situation. But, let’s be real - he is limited. He’s undersized (definitely not 6’10’), not very quick, has no verticality, and has really weak hands. Can Hudy get him another inch of hop and stronger hands? But, if he’s playing more than back-up minutes at the 5, we have bigger problems.

Hunter and Svi - who really knows?

Graham - was set back by the early injury, played like a freshman at times, and isn’t going to be an elite guard like a Jones or Ulis, but by the end of the year, I think he was one of our three best players, and I have high hopes/expectations for the future. He can penetrate, he can shoot some, and he defends well - by far the best at creating TOs. I think our offense, whatever it was we were trying to run at the time, was more effective when he and Mason were in the game together.

So, I come back to my basic premise. You have to have the players to be able to execute a scheme - and to actually do so. Painfully obvious from the get go that we couldn’t run H/L as in the past or score at the rim. Spread the floor and free the 3 or play Bad Ball. I don’t think we had the right combination of players to do that effectively, either, at least on a consistent basis or when facing good defenses or coaches who are capable of scheming against us (which was clearly not the case with New Mexico State…).

So, I think Self was constantly adjusting throughout the year to find something that could work night in and night out. While I have my own frustrations with his style and tendencies - the quick yank, riding certain ponies way too long, not taking full advantage of depth - with the benefit of hindsight and given the issues noted above, I think a good case can be made that the did get about as much out of this team as he could.

We are spoiled, of course, and that’s not good enough. Others have posted about recruiting to fit the system, the risks of going the OAD route, merits of certain assistant coaches, who we end up with next year, and so on. All good stuff, but beyond this post to discuss further (for now anyway).

RCJH!

@Hawk8086 The only problem with that is that 89 of the top 100 and 9 of the top 10 recruits HAVE committed. Apparently, the vast majority of top recruits aren’t waiting around or aren’t that concerned about who is staying and going elsewhere. The question is why no one is committing to KU.

@drgnslayr I also like the idea of our veteran players “possessing” the team, but I would simply observe that freshmen “possessed” last year’s national championship team. On the other hand, Wisconsin was clearly a veteran led team and made it to the NC game. And, the recent UConn championship teams were driven by veterans. There isn’t just one path - superior talent typically prevails, but not always. It is one persons view that we give ourselves the best chance to take it all if we can effectively meld strong veteran capabiility (Selden and Mason) with superior athletic talent (Bragg and Diallo) - and Devonte and Svi providing a bit of both.

This was another (very) disappointing loss, and emotions are raw in the moment, both for the players and the fans. But I don’t why everything has to be black and white - about the season, about Self, and about our tournament performance.

By all measures except one - a big one admittedly - this was a very successful season - 30+ wins, 13th consecutive conference crown - NPOY - Self showing more adaptability with his players than ever before, with entertaining results - a team with more grit and determination perhaps than many other recent Jayhawk teams - beat UK and Duke - epic comeback against WVU. Frank will go down as one of the all time greats at KU. JJ was the best OAD we’ve had - at least in terms of his play at KU. A lot to be grateful for and appreciative of with this team.

But that shouldn’t preclude a thoughtful discussion of the whys and wherefores of falling short again with regard to the goal each and every year at KU (yes we are blessed and cursed by high expectations) - a national championship or at least a Final Four appearance.

The numbers are what they are. Self’s 2-7 record in E8 games is what most folks are pointing the finger at. The one that really gets me is that we’ve had 8 #1 seeds during the Self era and have reached the FF only once during that time ('08). I haven’t gone back and checked this, but I think we have only beaten a higher seed team once during the Self era?

The bottom line is that we’ve consistently fallen short of playing to our expected seed over a long period of time during the tournament. That is a fact. The question is why? Luck? That may have something to do with, but again, it’s not a one, two or three time thing. Have we (and by extension the B12) been seeded higher than we should have? Probably yes to a degree, but that should actually make EASIER to advance further. And, advanced metrics have largely supported KUs seed most years - at least within a seed line.

Is something else going on? Is coaching an aspect - in terms of preparation, in-game adjustments, and the dreaded “tightness” factor? Perhaps it is inherently unknowable - certainly isn’t provable. By I’m one that has always had the feeling that Self does tighten up during the tournament and it is something could well be felt by and impact the players. It is most manifested in his substitution patters (or lack thereof) during the tournament. That our guys played not to lose, rather than playing to win.

I thought this year was different - that this team had a different character and swagger. But, after yesterday’s game, I don’t know what to think. Oregon struggled to put away URI and Michigan - could easily have lost either game. Didn’t really dominate Iona in the first round. Yet all 3 of those teams scored more points against Oregon than we did. We had our worst shooting %s and lowest point total of the year (eerily reminiscent of last year and other E8 results).

It took us forever to figure out their match-up on zone and adapt. We kept taking shots from the perimeter - some way too quickly - and didn’t drive the ball nearly enough (Frank did for a awhile, with good results). Perhaps we were cowed by Bell? Clearly having JJ on the bench hurt and while we were only down 1 when he came back in, he probably was playing less aggressively than he otherwise would have (and did in the second half).

How much of the game yesterday was on Self and how much of the KU performance in the tournament over the past decade and a half is on Self? I think some of it has to be - he is the one constant. Having said that, he is without question one of the small handful of best college coaches, a Hall of Famer, and I would still rather have Self than any other coach in the game - yes. But that doesn’t mean he is or should be immune from a critical assessment of why we continue to fall short of ours and his expectations…

@drgnslayr This has become a recurrent theme - and, unfortunately, perhaps the identity of this team. TTU has scored more than 85 only twice this season, against mighty FAU and Savannah St! Even in the TX win, we gave up 85 to them and they have trouble scoring against anyone (only game they scored more was against Northwestern State). Gave up 95 to ASU on at AFU.

No resistance against penetration and no blocking out. Gave up 18 ORBs. TTU missed 38 shots from the floor plus a few missed FTs. Doke garnered just 4 of those missed shots. Fully healthy or not, that isn’t acceptable. Whether driving into the paint or positioning for rebounds, it seems like our guys are allergic to contact.

Don’t know if that will or can change with the current line-up - perhaps de Sousa or Preston will at least be willing to mix it up, even if they don’t really know what they are doing on the floor…

@chriz I simply don’t get the “vote of confidence” point. Doke not making FTs is NOT for lack of confidence. It is that he has probably the worst FT shooting “technique” of any college or pro player I’ve ever seen. Definitely worse than Shaq. He can have all the confidence in the world - he ain’t making more than 50% of his attempts shooting them the way he does…

Give Svi credit - while he hasn’t done anything offensively since his two early 3s, he is battling on the boards - may already have a career high in rebounds with 8???

Bad coaching - don’t care how much better his stroke is, Doke has no business being in at the end of tight games where we have the lead…

Why is KU universally considered a “blue blood”? It isn’t NCAA titles - six schools have more titles than KU, some of which, as noted by others, don’t really warrant the approbation. Rather it is the depth, breadth and richness of KU’s basketball history…

It is the inventor of the game; it is Phog Allen; it is Allen Field House; it is the connections to Dean Smith, Adolph Rupp, Roy Smith and others; it is Wilt Chamberlain, Clyde Lovellette, Danny Manning and many others; it is the sustained success over many decades; it is the second most wins of all time; it is the most conference titles of any school; indeed, a top 5 ranking (most top 3) in almost all all-time team categories; and, it is Rock Chalk Jayhawk…

@approxinfinity Grimes is Charmin soft. HCBS must think that Mitch can handle it, but that Grimes not so much…

So, I’m wondering whether anyone on the board has thoughts about the best way to get in touch with HCBS?

I was at a dinner in CA last week with the owner of one of the true CA cult wines. Fabulous property in Napa Valley. Also, quite the collection of sports memorabilia at the estate. Among the items most prominently displayed are Duke, UK, and UNC basketballs signed by K, Cal and Roy (others from LeBron, Riley and the Warriors). I noted that conspicuous by its absence was the other basketball blue bood. The owner agreed and said they would love to host HCBS and rectify the oversight.

Don’t know if he likes fine wine or has a West Coast recruiting trip scheduled, but I would love to get in touch with HCBS and find out if he would be interested in spending a day in Napa - of course, I would have to make the trip across the country myself to personally host… Would welcome any thoughts or ideas???

Gotta give Marcus props - he is busting his butt out there. Working hard on D, scoring and getting rebounds. Sad that no one else is showing up…

Remy - 12 pts, 4 assists, 3 steals, and ZERO TOs…

Bottom half of Midwest also about as good as could be hoped for…

@BShark said in Miami Hurricanes Game Thread:

We owe Villanova, gotta win this one first. We good.

We good - IF we make shots.

Miami is a solid team and Larranaga a really good coach - gets the most out of lesser talented teams. But that’s the thing - KU is bigger and more talented. We need to play to win, not play to not lose.

HCBS has disconcerting tendency at this stage to not let his teams play to their talent. He loves being able to win a lot of games when we don’t play particularly well against good teams and against arguably better or more talented teams. But in the vast majority of games we play, we are the better, more talented team.

Let’s not play down to the opponent - let’s take advantage of our strengths and fast and loose…play to win…

@wissox said in Jay Wrong Game Thread:

Big 12 3 tournaments in a row with a championship game participant

B12 had underperformed in the tournament for a long while - that has really changed in the past few years. Not just 3 straight, but 3 different teams. Should have been 4 straight…

All 5 starters have scored in the 1st 8 minutes. That hasn’t happened in a while…

This team is just slowwwww… Get beat down court, off the dribble, to loose balls, and don’t close out quickly on 3PAs…

@BeddieKU23 said in Looking back at Hilton:

KU now dead last in free throw attempts in all of college ball

A remarkable (remarkably sad) stat. We don’t have a player averaging more than 2 FTAs pg other than Dickinson, and he less well less than 3. The past two years, McCullar and Wilson averaged about 6 trips to the line per game. Same with Dotson, Graham and even Lawson. Mason averaged about 7 his senior year. The title team had 4 players averaging 3-5 FTAs per game.

We’re on a pace for about ~400 team FTAs. The title team had about 660. The 15-16 team had 762.

Inexplicable, but this team just plays soft…

@kuballin10 Come on… Yes, there are issues, but putting it all on the handling of Storr and Griffen? While Alabama has definitely been better the past three years (remember they lost 12 games last year), Wisconsin has not - they went 22-14 last year. Storr led them in scoring, but was high usage and very inefficient - 43% from the field, 32% from 3, 4 rebounds and one assist per game. Doesn’t defend. He had no shot as a 3 and D in the NBA unless he improved his shooting and more importantly, defense, which is why he came to KU. It appears that he is what he has been, doesn’t have the requisite BBall IQ, or is just unwilling to do what is necessary to become a better player. He was a recruiting mistake much more than a usage one…Griffen is basically a one-dimensional player - a good spot up shooter - who fit well with the other pieces around him at Alabama. Not so much here - Harris isn’t Sears in penetrating and creating opportunities for shooters…

I agree that HCBS has always shown a quicker hook for some players and not others who seemingly make the same mistakes, but in this case, the problem is more a roster construction one than usage…

Another really solid stat line for Ochai last night - 20 pts on 8-15 from the field, 3 RBs, 4 assists and 3 blocks…

Self is correct that we’re not going to make 50+% of our 3s every game (last few games notwithstanding). But, if we make only 33%, we still have a better effective FG % than we do from 2 pt range - arguably, even at the rim with this team. The key is that with 3 pt shots built into the offense, the opponent has to defend them, which in turn opens up the interior. We actually scored several times at the rim in the second half against TT because the floor was spread, the ball move quickly, and there were better angles for entry passes to the post.

Gradey 13th pick to the Raptors…

Picking up on @HighEliteMajor 's reply to my earlier comment and @wrwlumpy 's Self quote, while I, along with most everyone else, have been concerned with his seemingly stubborn insistence on trying to score in the post with guys that just aren’t very good at it and slow embrace of a more outside-in approach, I actually think the comments cited by @wrwlumpy are right on the mark.

He is scared to death of being too reliant on 3 pt shots, because there will be days when they aren’t falling (although with this group, we should be able to avoid performances like Arizona and Syracuse in years past). He doesn’t want the guys getting too comfortable launching from beyond the arc and not looking to penetrate and dish or look for openings down low when the other team is overplaying the 3. We saw some success down low in the 2nd half - Perry had a good seal, as did Landon (alas, he couldn’t finish).

What I really took away from his comments however was the classic Self view, with which I agree, that there will be days when you aren’t making shots and can you still find a way to win. That means defending and rebounding - getting stops. This team hasn’t yet demonstrated it can consistently get stops in crunch time. True of last year’s team, as well. Check Kenpom’s defensive efficiency ratings over the past 10 years. KU has consistently been in the top 10 in DER - just not that past two years. That’s a function of youth as much as anything else, but also energy/desire/hustle.

The energy lapses are one thing (probably why he’s given Mari so much rope), but the consistent failure to box out and give up offensive rebounds, or get beat off the dribble and then not have anyone slide quickly to provide help, is probably what galls him most.

He takes pride in winning the ugly games, which is what we’ve been able to do pretty darn effectively during the Self years. While I think he is coming around a bit in opening it up on the offensive side to play to our strengths there, he is probably correct that the chances of a deep tourney run are diminished if we can consistent stop the other team. If not, you are really counting on staying hot for 4 to 6 games, i.e., 40%+ every game from deep against defenses designed to stop that. Possible - sure? Likely?

@rockchalkjayhawk said in Jayhawks in the pros:

How’s this for synchronicity:

Ochai and Gradey each had 22 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals.

Gradey has been lighting it up for the Raptors. Two 30 pt games before that…

Gosh, I guess I’m too old for this forum, but the bias for some of the more Jayhawks in the past two decades over some of the greats from earlier eras is difficult to justify on almost any basis. Can’t really disagree with Chamberlain and Manning in the front court, although a very strong case could be made for Lovellette - he is the second leading PPG scorer at KU (to Wilt), was player of the year, and lead the Hawks to one of their 3 NCAA championships. Robisch is another KU front court great. JoJo is a no brainer for a guard spot - the best ever at KU. While I love Hinrich, there is really no way he should get the nod over Valentine for one of the guard spots - Darnell was a first team All-American and 4-time B8 first teamer. Kirk only made third team All-American. Darnell also had higher PPG and APG averages. The fifth spot - guard-wing-front court - is tougher. No real argument with Pierce, although that seems to be more a reflection of his pro career (second only to Wilt’s) than his college career. Frankly, LaFrentz had better number and All-American creds at the same time as Paul. Collison also had stronger overall college career. I think a case could be made for Bud Stallworth. Gooden’s and Pierce’s KU numbers aren’t that dissimilar. With all due respect to some of my fellow posters, Wiggins and Embid are laughable as all-time greats based on their KU careers.

@jaybate-1.0 Yes, we didn’t shoot well (wouldn’t go so far as horribly, as we’ve had much worse shooting games), the bench didn’t perform, and the Tri-5 delivered a big fat zero buckets, but I would submit that the reason we lost was because of another failure on the defensive end.

We gave up 70 points (39 in the 2nd half on 55% shooting) to a team that had not broken 60! in 7 of its past 8 games - and failed to reach half a century twice. We could not get stops down the stretch - but that has been an issue throughout the year.

As noted in various posts in various threads, HCBS is first and foremost a defensive coach. Until last year, over the previous 8 years, KU’s worst defensive efficiency rating was 11th (1,1,3,3,5,9,11). Last year we were 31st (even with a rim protector and a defensive stopper). This year we are 30th in DER.

We can commiserate all we want to about shortcomings on the offensive end, but it strikes me that the principal problem with the youth movement and OAD/TADs is on the defensive end. HCBS used to have the luxury in the pre-OAD recruiting days to force guys to ride the bench unless they committed on the defensive end.

Defense gets (at best) short shrift in HS and AAU. Basic principles of boxing out, keeping a low center for gravity, help defense, clogging the passing lanes, et cetera aren’t taught. In past years, Self and staff taught defense - and with teams with upperclassmen learned to play it. And, it enabled many of those ugly wins the coach likes, even when the shots aren’t falling. Now, when the shots aren’t falling, the wins don’t come as easily and the losses more frequently.

With acknowledgements to @jaybate-1.0 and @lincase and apologies to both and the English language, we’ve graduated from Bad Ball to Badder Ball. A truly remarkable game and season in so many respects, esp. when compared and contrasted to other teams during the Self era.

Listening to the audio of Self’s post-game comments was truly enlightening - I thought the joy, relief and pride in his voice was palpable - both for the guys and frankly for himself. Even though he doesn’t really need the validation, I expect he took great satisfaction (with a side smirk to all the board rats here, me included) that we could 0-15 on 3 pointers (putting aside causation for that performance) and still pull out a win. Classic Self win ugly.

And, boy was it fantastically gloriously ugly. Down 18 at home to a good, but not great team missing 2 starters and its best player on senior night. Getting killed on the boards. Getting beat to every loose ball. Hitting nothing from outside. Turning it over with alarming frequency. And, yet, come away with a win.

As Self noted in his comments, nothing was working on the offensive end, so he just told the boys to attack the rim. Translation - we couldn’t run our stuff. In fact, we can’t run our stuff with this group against teams that know us - and probably not against good teams that don’t. And, the guys know it, so they just go through motions. So, second half let’s forget about running our stuff and just attack the rim. Doesn’t really matter that we can’t finish there - we’ll get to the foul line, wear 'em down and win a war of attrition.

Indeed, that’s been the recipe the past two games. We got 45 friggin’ percent of our points from the FT line last night - and 38% the game before. Remarkable - is it sustainable? Apart from the frequency of shots, I certainly don’t recall a prior KU team hitting FTs at an 80% clip over 4 games like this - typically FTs have been a problem for us.

And, the forget about running our stuff tack seems to get the guys in attack mode on the defensive end, as well. 40 points in the 1st half, just 19 the second. “Fun” to watch, but the fun part was after they had pulled it out - really wasn’t particularly enjoyable during the moment and I’m still struggling to understand how it happened - and, to be honest, I didn’t believe it was going to happen until it did. Full props to the guys for continuing to grind.

I would posit that given what we now know and understand to be the very real limitations of this team at least in terms of fundamental skills and capabilities, both individually and collectively, and that the inability to execute Hi-lo or 4 out-1 in or much of anything else consistently, that this may actually be Self’s best coaching job to date (although I might argue that it is also the worst “coaching-up” job on the part of the entire staff given continued fundamental lapses.

Consider:

Mason is tough as nails and our most consistent player over the course of the year, but isn’t really a true PG - although better than last year, he doesn’t have PG instincts and doesn’t distribute the ball well - esp. when penetrating or on fast breaks. There have been countless times on breaks when he should have laid if off to a trailer.

Perry has really stepped it up recently and is our best pure scorer, but is really only effective when the paint is opened up and he can maneuver against one defender (and who can’t be equally athletic and longer) by driving from the outside or spinning inside.

Oubre is the most skilled two way player (by far IMO), but is still a bit raw and learning the game - he will only get better - unfortunately, probably not in a Jayhawk uniform.

Selden is a solid citizen and solid on the ball defender, but doesn’t use his size effectively, can’t finish at the rim, and simply is incapable of dribbling or passing in traffic or against pressure (to think that there was some discussion, including by HCBS at the beginning of the year about him getting minutes at the 1).

Traylor has made some spectacular “energy” plays, is the emotional guy (for better and worse) and he was a difference maker yesterday, but he is undersized, turns the ball over too much, and can disappear for parts of all of a game - or multiple games.

Alexander is a big body and is our best rebounder, but doesn’t have a back to the basket game, gets lost on offense, and gets easily beat by mobile big men.

Greene is the best pure shooter and clutch on FTs, but can’t create his own shot, and, while improved, is still a liability on defense.

Graham is a solid back-up at PG now and can be very effective at the 2 along with Mason, and will only get better, but is still inexperience and inconsistent - growth hampered somewhat by injury.

Lucas is the best big fundamentally, but has no verticality and has perhaps the weakest hands of any big ever at Kansas (well, along with Withey early on).

Svi - who really knows since we’ve not seen much of him since early - clearly great ball IQ and skills, just physically overpowered now.

Mickleson is mostly an unknown, although he was our best player in the 1st half yesterday (admittedly not a high bar) and showed some skills - would like to see more, actually.

Collectively, the team doesn’t box out well, doesn’t space well, doesn’t pass well and doesn’t rotate well on defense.

Notwithstanding, we’re 24-6 against a very challenging schedule, the deepest the B12 has ever been, just clinched #11 and are a near lock to be a 2 seed in the Big Dance. Remarkable stuff. Still not quite sure how we’ve gotten here and less sure how far we can advance in the tourney, but this team seems to be taking on some of the character of the '11-'12 team - they won’t out finesse anyone, but maybe, just maybe, they can Bad/Badder ball their way to another FF…

@Crimsonorblue22 Apparently so, but we’ve seen this story played out many times with Self over the years - he stays with certain guys even if they aren’t producing. Not sure if it’s loyalty or the stubbornness trait coming through. There was a stretch over 4-5 games where Selden was a major contributor, but that isn’t the case over the past six. The way he has been playing lately, esp. if it is due to injury, personally I would much prefer to see his minutes go to Graham, Greene (if he gets out of the doghouse), and yes, Svi.

The FF is set - all blue-bloods. Interestingly, 2 OAD stacks and 2 “system” guys bereft of OADs. Of course, B12 participation in the tournament is a distant memory. Yes, the topic head is intentionally provocative. I’ve always defended the B12 against my usually obnoxious East Coast colleagues - but, that is getting increasingly difficult to do.

With all the talk about the strength of the conference this year (which, I would argue was really a balance, rather than strength matter), our performance in the tournament was unfortunately very similar to the past two tourneys.

So, apart from the provocation, the facts. Conference records in the tournament during the past 3 years (with 3 games still pending):

B12: 14-19 B10: 35-18 ACC: 27-15 SEC: 22-10 P12: 21-15 BE: 20-17

It’s not a matter of bids - we’ve gotten more than anyone except the B10 (1 fewer). It’s not because we’re always facing higher seeded teams - our win total this year based on seeds was 10; we got half that. It’s the luck of the draw or crapshoot argument rings a bit hollow when you look at the aggregate numbers. When it comes to the tournament, we’re more A-10 level - 13-14 the past 3 years.

You may disagree with the provocative premise. I would rather focus on the WHY? of these results. Non-conference scheduling? True round robin conference scheduling (i.e., beating each other up)? Coaching? Recruiting? All of the above? Other factors? Perhaps it is cyclical, rather than structural? If cyclical, it’s been a long cycle. The last stretch in which the conference as a whole performed well in the tourney was '02-'04.

My own view is that it is attributable primarily to a talent deficit, and a rather significant one, compared to the other power conferences. Simply put, we’re not attracting many of the top tier guys to B12 schools, and we’re not yielding top NBA caliber talent. KU gets good, but until last year, not really elite level talent (of course, this year, we supposedly had 2 top 15 guys…). Who else? Texas? It’s been a long time since Durant and Aldridge. Turner maybe? Smart at OSU. ISU is typically transfers and jucos. Going back a decade, I think the conference has yielded just 3 NBA all-star caliber players to this point - Durant, Aldridge and Griffin. Wigs may get there. Maybe Kieff will get there. Who am I missing?

Agree, disagree? If you agree that we have a talent deficit, why? Too tough to recruit in the midwest/plains (but explain the difference with the B10)? No natural recruiting hotbeds (Texas?)? Paucity of good recruiters (except Self and Barnes?)?

Do we resign ourselves to continued mediocrity? What can “we” do to change recent trends???

@Crimsonorblue22 Well, I’m as happy about the Badgers win as any Jayhawk win this year.

@RockChalkinTexas Perhaps not an English major?

Lordy, lordy - what a surprise. Feel for the kid. While he didn’t come close to living up to the hype as the #2 big in his class, that really isn’t on him and now he is put in a position where it will be difficult for him to succeed. Wish him the best.

@wissoxfan83 This one is on Self. No making any adjustments. Just getting killed on penetration and second chance points in the second half. Absolutely no interior D. Why no Mickelson I can’t understand.

So many threads on last night’s game - good observations and analysis throughout. My takeaway. It wasn’t an embarrassing loss - MSU is a very good team and very well coached. In the abstract, losing a tight game to the Spartans on a neutral court isn’t anything to be ashamed of.

What is disconcerting is that we’ve seen this movie before - the second half especially was eerily similar to each of our losses down the stretch last year. Blowing leads, shortening the bench in the second half (notwithstanding that using the bench contributed to getting leads in the first place), abandoning any semblance of running an offense (resorting to Bad Ball), and failing to get ANY defensive stops.

Admittedly, one game is not much of a sample set, but it sure looks like that notwithstanding more experience and a supposedly deeper bench, 2016 will be a replay of 2015 (and '13 and '14) in too many respects:

Limited capability to execute the high-low; no low post scoring threat other than Perry (and although he got his points, he still struggled to score against the Spartan bigs).

No scheming for good three point looks.

Mason (and Graham) driving into the paint without looking to dish.

Selden driving in a straight line and flailing his arms when he gets anywhere near the hoop.

Missing bunnies and inability to finish at the rim.

Inability to protect the rim.

Inability to get ANY stops in crunch time.

Too many minutes going to Jamari and Landon.

Too few minutes going to younger, but clearly more talented players (in stark contrast to the Dukes, UKs, and MSUs of the world) who need the PT to be able to develop and overcome early freshmen mistakes.

As naseum, ad infinitum…

The bottom line is that we were outscored by 17 points over the last 9:30 of the game. We gave up 29 points during that stretch - works out to better than 120 ppg! Again, lack of offensive execution, and, more importantly, defensive breakdown very much like 4 or 5 of our losses late last year.

Do we have talent? Yes. Do we have depth? Yes. But we also have real demonstrable limitations, which means that we have to play to our strengths, rather than playing into the opponents hands.

As a result of recruiting failures running several years now, we cannot run the high-low effectively - it’s Fools Gold to try to do so. It was the hallmark of Self teams during his first decade, but we haven’t had anyone able to score consistently and efficiently down low against good competition since 2012.

Unfortunately, we are also not an especially good defensive team. Our perimeter players are perhaps just bit above average. None can consistently stop penetration and Mason and Graham are undersized. I continue to be of the view, based on 3 years of evidence, that Selden is actually a minus defender against better, quicker players; but definitely not a stopper. That puts more pressure on the interior defenders, but the sad fact is that we have virtually no interior defensive presence. Certainly no rim protection (other than Mickelson). Opposing guards and wings clearly don’t fear attacking the paint against us.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Because we do have more talent and athleticism than most teams, we will win 20+ games. But we won’t consistently win against better competition unless we (HCBS) can change stripes, adapt and play to our strengths. That means on the offensive end opening up the court and taking advantage of our speed, ability to shoot threes (with BG and Svi), which in turn should open up things for Perry down low. It means applying more pressure on the defensive end, shortening the clock and not allowing other teams to get into their sets as quickly. And, both mean taking advantage of our depth to wear down other teams and change personnel on the fly to take advantage of mismatches.

We’ll see. RCJH.

@KUinLA Good cite (nowithstanding Jaybate diatribe) as well as one posted by @Statmachine . I’m taking the liberty of reposting here I posted after the game in another thread, making many of the same points - alas, even using the tired “insanity” cliche…

"So many threads on last night’s game - good observations and analysis throughout. My takeaway. It wasn’t an embarrassing loss - MSU is a very good team and very well coached. In the abstract, losing a tight game to the Spartans on a neutral court isn’t anything to be ashamed of.

What is disconcerting is that we’ve seen this movie before - the second half especially was eerily similar to each of our losses down the stretch last year. Blowing leads, shortening the bench in the second half (notwithstanding that using the bench contributed to getting leads in the first place), abandoning any semblance of running an offense (resorting to Bad Ball), and failing to get ANY defensive stops.

Admittedly, one game is not much of a sample set, but it sure looks like that notwithstanding more experience and a supposedly deeper bench, 2016 will be a replay of 2015 (and '13 and '14) in too many respects:

Limited capability to execute the high-low; no low post scoring threat other than Perry (and although he got his points, he still struggled to score against the Spartan bigs).

No scheming for good three point looks.

Mason (and Graham) driving into the paint without looking to dish.

Selden driving in a straight line and flailing his arms when he gets anywhere near the hoop.

Missing bunnies and inability to finish at the rim.

Inability to protect the rim.

Inability to get ANY stops in crunch time.

Too many minutes going to Jamari and Landon.

Too few minutes going to younger, but clearly more talented players (in stark contrast to the Dukes, UKs, and MSUs of the world) who need the PT to be able to develop and overcome early freshmen mistakes.

As naseum, ad infinitum…

The bottom line is that we were outscored by 17 points over the last 9:30 of the game. We gave up 29 points during that stretch - works out to better than 120 ppg! Again, lack of offensive execution, and, more importantly, defensive breakdown very much like 4 or 5 of our losses late last year.

Do we have talent? Yes. Do we have depth? Yes. But we also have real demonstrable limitations, which means that we have to play to our strengths, rather than playing into the opponents hands.

As a result of recruiting failures running several years now, we cannot run the high-low effectively - it’s Fools Gold to try to do so. It was the hallmark of Self teams during his first decade, but we haven’t had anyone able to score consistently and efficiently down low against good competition since 2012.

Unfortunately, we are also not an especially good defensive team. Our perimeter players are perhaps just bit above average. None can consistently stop penetration and Mason and Graham are undersized. I continue to be of the view, based on 3 years of evidence, that Selden is actually a minus defender against better, quicker players; but definitely not a stopper. That puts more pressure on the interior defenders, but the sad fact is that we have virtually no interior defensive presence. Certainly no rim protection (other than Mickelson). Opposing guards and wings clearly don’t fear attacking the paint against us.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Because we do have more talent and athleticism than most teams, we will win 20+ games. But we won’t consistently win against better competition unless we (HCBS) can change stripes, adapt and play to our strengths. That means on the offensive end opening up the court and taking advantage of our speed, ability to shoot threes (with BG and Svi), which in turn should open up things for Perry down low. It means applying more pressure on the defensive end, shortening the clock and not allowing other teams to get into their sets as quickly. And, both mean taking advantage of our depth to wear down other teams and change personnel on the fly to take advantage of mismatches."

All of this needs to be in context - HCBS is a Hall of Fame coach, we have a great APR (something truly to be proud of) and yes, we are spoiled by success. But you can’t rest on laurels or fail to adapt to circumstances. Looking at it objectively, the past 3 years have seen under performance in recruiting (at least in terms of getting highly ranked players to commit early to KU), esp. quality bigs, and under performance (relative to prior years) in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, and, not surprisingly, under performance in the NCAAs and against the best competition. We are already behind almost everyone else in 2016 recruiting and unless there is a change in approach to strategy, tactics and use of personnel, it seems like deja vu all over again…

@jaybate-1.0 Yes, but in the “what have you done for me recently category,” HCBS is a more pedestrian .548 away from Allen the past 2 years. 12-9 in 14-15 and 11-9 in 13-14. 0-1 this year. In the past years, we were a great road team, mainly because defense travels and we were an elite defensive team that could get stops and overcome offensive sluggishness. Hasn’t really been the case the past couple of years - defensive efficiency/tempo metrics are well below prior years.