2020 Bubble Watch
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Bubble teams that have helped themselves today (3/7)
Helped themselves, so far
Utah St.- the Aggies won the MWC conference tournament to secure an automatic bid to take themselves off the bubble and shrink it by 1.
NC State- Wolfpack whipped Wake on Friday night to stay in good shape for an at large bid.
Richmond- Spiders picked up double digit win over Duquesne to keep their at large hopes alive on Friday. Rutgers- picked up a much needed road win over fellow bubble team Purdue to likely completely knock Purdue off the bubble.
East Tennessee St.- the Buccaneers took care of business in the quarterfinals of the SoCon Tournament.
Oklahoma- Sooners kept their spot on the positive side of the bubble by coming back from 20 down to beat TCU and avoid a loss that could have put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
Mississippi St.- Bulldogs blow out Ole Miss by 25 to keep their chance alive and finish as the 4 seed in the SEC tournament. A couple of wins, including a probable quarterfinals game against Florida would likely lock MSU in the field.
Arizona St.- Sun Devils picked up a much needed win over WSU to stay on the good side of the bubble.
Hurt themselves today, so far.
Indiana- Hoosiers could’ve locked themselves in with a win over Wisconsin, but now find themselves needing a win or two in the B10 Tournament.
Purdue- home loss to Rutgers all but knocks Purdue out of any at large discussion.
Texas- after a great run to out themselves in the mix, a bad loss to Oklahoma St. likely means Texas has to beat Texas Tech on Thursday to have any hope of an at large bid.
Texas Tech- today’s loss drops Tech to 13 losses. Their game against Texas on Thursday appears to be essentially an elimination game for an at large bid with the loser probably NIT bound at this point.
Marquette- Eagles took a bad loss to St. John’s today that puts them firmly on the bubble at this point.
UCLA- Bruins had a chance to clinch a share of the PAC 12 title with a win over USC (still could share if Stanford beats Oregon tonight). UCLA couldn’t win though and probably need to reach the PAC 12 title game to feel safe about an at large bid at this point.
Florida- Gators blew a big lead and a chance to move off the bubble into locked in territory. Gators need a win or two in the SEC tournament to really feel safe at this point.
Arkansas- Razorbacks slim hopes took a big hit today with a loss to Texas A&M today.
Tennessee- Vols needed to beat Auburn to keep their already slim hopes alive. A 22 point loss removes Tennessee from any bubble talk.
South Carolina- Gamecocks took possibly the worst loss of any bubble team by dropping a game against Vanderbilt. SC, like Arkansas and Tennessee, have probably played themselves off the bubble at this point.
Northern Iowa- Panthers got destroyed by Drake in quarterfinals of the MVC Tournament to end any at large hopes they had and send them to the NIT.
Other teams yet to play or go final today (3/7) with bubble implications:
Stanford at Oregon: Oregon looking for an outright Pac 12 title with a win and Stanford looking to lock themselves in with a big time road win.
Temple at Cincinnati: Bearcats probably move to right of bubble with a win tonight. Currently losing late in the 1st half in a game where neither team is lighting up the scoreboard.
Rhode Island at UMass: Rams up late in a game that could move them into the discussion for an at large bid if they make a run in the A10 Tournament. A loss sends them to the NIT unless they win the tournament.
Memphis at Houston: Tigers have to win to keep any hopes alive
Tulsa at Wichita St.- Tulsa could win an outright AAC title with a win and move into the field with a first game win in the AAC Tournament. WSU has to win because they need another quality win to keep any hopes they have alive. A loss probably moves them off the bubble barring a run to the AAC title game.
I might be missing someone at this point, but I think I covered most everyone in the discussion.
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Rhode Island tried giving the game away against UMass, but the pull out a 1 point win on the road to keep their at large chances alive. They still need to make a run in the A10 Tournament title game and beat Richmond in the semifinals to give themselves a real chance at an at large.
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Cincinnati avoids disaster against Temple at home and pulls off a 1 point win.
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Xavier trailing in a tight game with Butler that would help greatly boost Xavier’s chances of an at large bid.
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Belmont has won the OVC tournament, joining Utah State with an Automatic Bid.
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Kamar Baldwin nails a 3 with 1.2 seconds left to give Butler the win over Xavier. Butler finished with 36 points tonight. The loss knocks Xavier down to the 7 seed in the Big East Tournament and Xavier may need two win now at this point to lock in to the field. They’re going to play DePaul first and assuming they win that one, would play Villanova.
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Last bubble affecting game of the night tips off in a few minutes in Eugene, Oregon as Stanford tries to lock themselves into the field with a win and Oregon tries to wrap up an outright Pac 12 title. I probably won’t be awake for the end of it, but a big game in regards to tournament implications.
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Oregon knocked off Stanford by 13 to win the PAC 12 outright. The loss doesn’t really hurt Stanford, but now they probably need two wins in the PAC 12 Tournament to feel good about their chances.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Thanks, Hawk. Who needs Joe Lunardi when we have such committed poster here.
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Speaking of bracketology, Archie’s little rant. https://twitter.com/tombrewsports/status/1236379535328804867
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@wissox I had to double check that this is real. Apparently it is. Yikes.
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@wissox said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
Speaking of bracketology, Archie’s little rant. https://twitter.com/tombrewsports/status/1236379535328804867
Crazy thought here, don’t have a losing conference record and then complain when you might be on the wrong side of the bubble.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
@wissox said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
Speaking of bracketology, Archie’s little rant. https://twitter.com/tombrewsports/status/1236379535328804867
Crazy thought here, don’t have a losing conference record and then complain when you might be on the wrong side of the bubble.
Classic Boeheim syndrome.
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Thanks for your efforts!
Texas Tech should be in. They pass the eye test but we know it takes more than that to qualify.
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@drgnslayr I would agree but man, they went from firmly in to shooting themselves in both feet these last couple weeks. 4 game losing streak, lost 5 of their last 7 only beating the absolute dregs of the league KSuck and UMKCISU.
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This is a crazy year for bubble teams. In a normal year, UCLA is nowhere near the bubble with a NET rating in the 70’s right now. With the P5 leagues generally down this year (3 of the top 5 overall seeds in the NCAA Tournament are probably going to be mid major conference teams), I’d rather see programs like Richmond and UNI get at large bids over sub .500 in conference P5 schools. I’m hoping schools like ETSU, SFA, Liberty all win their tournaments, but those are the teams I’d rather see in the field this year.
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@drgnslayr said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
Thanks for your efforts!
Texas Tech should be in. They pass the eye test but we know it takes more than that to qualify.
Problem for Tech is they don’t have a high volume of good wins. They only have 2 wins over teams that are tournament locks at this point (Louisville and WVU). They also have 13 losses is very uncommon for 14 loss teams to get an at large bid. 3 of Tech’s losses are not good losses, DePaul, TCU, and OSU aren’t losses that hold up well against the lack of quality wins.
I’m gonna say this, the loser of Texas-Texas Tech game on Thursday is going to the NIT this year and the winner will end up in a First Four game in Dayton. That’s where I’m at with those two teams right now.
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As for today’s slate of games (3/8), there are 4 games that affect the bubble. All bubble watchers eyes will be on the American today with a pair of games.
Tulsa at Wichita St.
Both teams are both squarely on the bubble. The winner will probably be on the good side of the bubble for now and loser likely needs to beat Houston in the AAC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament. Also, a win by Tulsa would give the Golden Hurricane the outright AAC title.
Memphis at Houston
Memphis needs this win to get into the bubble discussion as a season sweep of UH would look good on their resume. Even with a win over UH, the Tigers will have work to do in the AAC Tournament to get in the NCAA Tournament. A loss will send Penny to the NIT again.
Lipscomb at Liberty
With a win in the Atlantic Sun title game, Liberty would get the automatic bid and not have to worry about whether they’ll get an at large bid next Sunday. With a loss, they’ll be sweating it out during the selection show. Liberty is a big favorite today, but Lipscomb is one of the Flames 4 losses on the season and both games were close in the regular season.
Western Carolina vs. East Tennessee State
The Bucs are looking to advance to the SoCon title game with a win the semifinals today. ETSU is pretty much in the same boat as Liberty. A loss will make for a very long Selection Sunday, but SoCon Tournament title removes that. ETSU is a really good team and I’d rather see them get an at large (if needed) over a team like Indiana. KU only beat the Bucs by 12 back in November and they have a win at LSU as well.
Those are the 4 games to keep an eye on today.
Memphis at Houston tips at 11am on CBS.
Lipscomb at Liberty tips at 2pm on ESPN
Tulsa at Wichita St. tips at 3pm on CBSSN
WCU vs. ETSU tips at 3pm on ESPN+
All times are Central.
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There are 3 automatic bids on the line today.
The above mentioned A-Sun title game between Lipscomb and Liberty.
The Big South title game is today between Hampton and Winthrop 12pm on ESPN
Also, the Missouri Valley title is on the line between Valparaiso and Bradley on CBS after the Mem/Hou game.
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@BShark said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
@Texas-Hawk-10 said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
@wissox said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
Speaking of bracketology, Archie’s little rant. https://twitter.com/tombrewsports/status/1236379535328804867
Crazy thought here, don’t have a losing conference record and then complain when you might be on the wrong side of the bubble.
Classic Boeheim syndrome.
Absolutely
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Faith in Haith! I would not have guessed Tulsa would win that league.
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Both Miller brothers seem like d-bags, them and Cal are coaches I just can’t stand. They seem counterfeit as soon as their mouths open.
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Memphis and Houston are tied with a little over 16 minutes left.
Also, it’s really cool hearing Houston alum Jim Nance call a UH game on national TV.
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Quentin Grimes has gone off for Houston in the second half. Grimes is the biggest reason UH is now up 13 with a little over 2 minutes left.
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Houston knocks off Memphis to knock the Tigers off the bubble. Memphis now needs to reach the AAC title game at a minimum to have any shot at an at large and probably needs to win the the AAC Tournament which will be harder than normal for them since that tournament isn’t in Memphis this year. The AAC Tournament will be played at the new Dickies Arena in Ft. Worth this season.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 how close are you to Fort Worth? Would be fun to watch, I think 5 teams could win that tournament given the right day.
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@kjayhawks said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
@Texas-Hawk-10 how close are you to Fort Worth? Would be fun to watch, I think 5 teams could win that tournament given the right day.
I live in Houston so I have no plans to make the 4 hour drive to Ft. Worth for that tournament. I might go check out the Southland Tournament at some point though since that’s in the Houston area.
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Valparaiso with a 2 point lead over Bradley at halftime of the MVC Title game.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 haha don’t blame you
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Winthrop beats underdog Hampton (KenPom #311) after trailing at halftime to win the Big South bid.
For what it’s worth, Bracketology has Winthrop as a 16 seed, facing KU in the first round.
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Liberty wins the A-Sun title game and bubble teams rejoice as the Flames were a potential bubble team had they lost.
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Wichita St. picked up a much needed win and did so with style today blowing out Tulsa at home by 22 points.
With this loss, Tulsa probably needs a run to the AAC title game in order to keep their at large hopes alive.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I like WSUs odds to get in if they can win a couple of games in Fort Worth. I really want to play them.
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@kjayhawks said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
@Texas-Hawk-10 I like WSUs odds to get in if they can win a couple of games in Fort Worth. I really want to play them.
If they get two wins, they’ll definitely be in because their second game should be against Houston.
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ETSU rolled to an easy victory over Western Carolina in the semifinals of the SoCon to advance to the title game against either Wofford or Chattanooga who are tied late in the second half.
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Give me more good dance… I’m of the opinion that regardless of team or conference affiliation no one should be invited to the tournament unless having a .500 record or better.
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Bubble watch results for Sunday 3/8.
Helped themselves
Wichita St.- the Shockers needed a good win and got one by blowing out Tulsa and denying Tulsa an outright AAC title. Shockers still have some work to do to lock themselves in though.
Liberty- the Flames won the A-Sun Tournament title to get the automatic bid and not need to sweat it out Selection Sunday.
East Tennessee State- the Bucs reached the SoCon title game with a win in the semifinals.
Hurt themselves
Memphis- Tigers couldn’t stop former Jayhawk Quentin Grimes on the 2nd half and suffered a double digit loss to Houston in a game Memphis needed. Now the Tigers will need to reach the AAC title game and probably win the tournament to get the automatic bid.
Tulsa- the Golden Hurricane’s at large bid hopes took a big hit with their 22 point loss at Wichita St. Tulsa was also denied the outright AAC title and probably need to win the tournament at this point.
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Bubble games for 3/9
There’s only one game today that will impact the bubble and that is the SoCon Tournament title game. East Tennessee State takes on Wofford for the SoCon’s automatic bid. Bubble teams will be cheering for the Bucs to take that automatic bid and remove themselves from the bubble pool.
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Watching East Tennessee and Wofford. First half only took about 40 minutes real time. Can’t think of a men’s game I’ve seen lately that went that fast.
Would’ve been nice to have something like that as the lead-in to KU games, instead of missing the first 5 or 10 minutes as usual.
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Good guy Steve locked in that tournament bid.
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Bubble teams are rejoicing tonight as ETSU comes alive in the 2nd half to roll to an easy victory in the SoCon title game and clinch an automatic bid and remove themselves from the bubble pool.
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@BShark Steve Forbes should be headed to a power 5 job as soon as he wants it.
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@kjayhawks Absolutely. 75% win rate in D1 and 77% total as a HC. Has done a great job building the ETSU program back up.
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Zags avoid the upset bid from San Francisco. If they weren’t a lock as a 1 seed before, that should nail it down.
USF played them tough earlier this year as well…probably NIT bound. 22 wins in a good mid-major.
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@nwhawkfan said in 2020 Bubble Watch:
Zags avoid the upset bid from San Francisco. If they weren’t a lock as a 1 seed before, that should nail it down.
USF played them tough earlier this year as well…probably NIT bound. 22 wins in a good mid-major.
The WCC is improved over the last few years. USF is a good team
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USF has a good young coach too. A mixed bag of international players. 3 of their top 4 players will return which gives them a chance to keep competitive
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No games with bubble implications today, but there are 5 automatic bids on the line today.
The Horizon League final between UIC and Northern Kentucky on ESPN at 6pm (Central)
The NEC title game between St. Francis (PA) and Robert Morris on ESPN2 at 6pm (Central)
The Colonial title game between Northeastern and Hofstra on CBSSN at 6pm (Central)
Gonzaga and St. Mary’s on ESPN at 8pm (Central) for the WCC title.
North Dakota and NDSU for the Summit League title on ESPN2 at 8pm (Central).
The first of power conference tournaments also gets going today as the ACC Tournament gets underway with 2 games today. Pitt and Wake Forest in what could be Danny Manning’s final game as head coach at Wake. The other game is UNC and VA Tech. As bad as UNC has been this year, that team still has a lot of talent capable of making a run in the ACC Tournament so I’ll be curious to see what they do this week.
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Creighton’s PG and 2nd leading scorer is doubtful for the Big-East tournament with a knee injury…
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I have been a big proponent over the years that at-large bids should only go to teams that have a .500 overall record and a .500 record in conference. There’s no point in giving credit to playing a bunch of tough teams, but losing most of those games.
That rule would mean that the following schools would be eliminated from the Bubble as of now:
ACC - Clemson
Big 12 - TCU
Big East - Marquette, Xavier
Big Ten - Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota
That’s seven schools that would be off the bubble watch, and looking to win their conference tournament to get in.
It would also make the last couple of weeks of conference play more interesting, as teams potentially on the bubble would be playing virtual play in games to qualify, like Indiana was faced with over the last couple of weeks. Indiana finished Big Ten play at 9-11, so they were one win away from being .500. That would have made this weekend’s home game against Wisconsin a game to remain at-large eligible. That makes the road loss to Illinois even bigger, not to mention the egg they laid at Purdue.
It just makes things that much more interesting for both P5 schools, and for the top teams from mid majors, most of whom are currently shut out by the 9th place team from a P5 conference.
Just my opinion, though.
