New 2019 Recruiting
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LOL Stanley doing Stanley things. He actually has become a much better player over his senior season which has obviously made Duke’s pile of cash and NBA aspirations after one year attractive. Maybe the Stanley and Hurt helicopter daddies can share Zion’s pad and keep the lights on until the 2020 class takes it over
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Ugh Rivals guys all pick Chris Harris Jr to Oklahoma St… Exactly the type of kid that goes for 30 and makes 7 3’s every time he plays KU. Flabbergasted why we didn’t show interest
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@BeddieKU23 That will be great for the 2,600 “fans” that show up for every Oklahoma State game!
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“That’s if everybody leaves,” Self clarified. “But everybody’s not going to leave. But, yeah; I’d say if we need to sign seven this spring, that wouldn’t be the ideal situation.” - Self
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2019/apr/17/kansas-coach-bill-self-far-from-panicked/
More evidence of Doke and De Sousa not coming back.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Ugh Rivals guys all pick Chris Harris Jr to Oklahoma St… Exactly the type of kid that goes for 30 and makes 7 3’s every time he plays KU. Flabbergasted why we didn’t show interest
There would be a freak out as KU signed another sub 100 recruit but yeah he will be a good one in time.
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BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Ugh Rivals guys all pick Chris Harris Jr to Oklahoma St… Exactly the type of kid that goes for 30 and makes 7 3’s every time he plays KU. Flabbergasted why we didn’t show interest
There would be a freak out as KU signed another sub 100 recruit but yeah he will be a good one in time.
This is what cracks me up.
Fans want us to land 3 guys a year from the range 45-60 lol. Anything else is a terrible class one way or the other.
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@Kcmatt7 A large portion of the fan base thinks that if KU offers a kid in the 50-100 range they will instantly jump on it. Simply not the case for example it appears we were never really in it for Beverly.
I’m sure KU will add some “guys” but will they be “dudes” is a fair question. The next couple weeks will be big.
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@BShark Right. Like some guys want to stay close to home. Or don’t want to deal with the weather here. And Bill Self probably isn’t crazy charming for everyone. There are so many variables that people don’t realize.
I did the breakout awhile ago, but it is basically twice as easy for a program like KU to go recruit the top 25 than it is to recruit 25+.
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@Kcmatt7 @BShark I don’t know where the 45-60 thing comes from. Anyway …
Here’s the winning strategy - Focus efforts on those outside presumed OAD through 80ish (and specific kids that may be higher). Some years that range will vary. Once a kid is presumed OAD, get away. And always stay away from top 10. Commit to your recruits that you will never recruit over them with a presumed OAD. That’s key. Never a presumed OAD. Never the top guys,. Ever.
It is not twice as easy for KU to recruit top 25 than 25+. That’s fiction. If KU focused on the non-OADs, and gave its word as noted above, we’d rock in the 20ish - 80ish range.
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HighEliteMajor said:
and gave its word as noted above, we’d rock in the 20ish - 80ish range.
There is no guarantee. KU typically casts a very wide net in recruiting to try and find interested players. Maybe if KU targeted midrange players hard and lowered the amount of offers but that would make missing even more brutal so idk.
Our thought as KU fans is typically that yeah these players would be lining up but it’s really not the case. Recruiting is about relationships and it might be time for an assistant change or two.
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@BShark I agree about the need for some new blood, new assistant. Haven’t really had a great big guy assisant since Manning left, have we? Howard seems to be our top recruiter, who else is untouchable?
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CAN WE KEEP THE SUBJECT ON KU RECRUITING ANDNOTHING ELSE
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@HighEliteMajor I just think you don’t have matching expectations for the programs success and how you would like us to recruit.
You simply can’t, in todays game, recruit that way and expect to be a top 10 team every year competing for National Championships. Literally nobody has been able to do that as a “system” team. If you take out the FBI thing that is disproportionately hurting us compared to say UK or Duke, KU has another 1 seed this year.
Nova learned this year, you have to have immediate talent coming in. Guys that weren’t expected to leave, left after the NC and they weren’t even close to the same team this year. They got caught with their pants down. If Ignas leaves, Michigan could really struggle next year.
Where does this program exist that has proven your theory that if you commit to mid-tier talent that you can consistently win year in and year out?
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JAYHAWKFAN214 said:
CAN WE KEEP THE SUBJECT ON KU RECRUITING ANDNOTHING ELSE
Whew!!! You yelled that just in the nick of time. I was about to whip out a recipe for a killer German Chocolate Cake.
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JAYHAWKFAN214 said:
CAN WE KEEP THE SUBJECT ON KU RECRUITING ANDNOTHING ELSE
Yes, but only if you promise to quit posting in all caps
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BShark said:
HighEliteMajor said:
and gave its word as noted above, we’d rock in the 20ish - 80ish range.
There is no guarantee. KU typically casts a very wide net in recruiting to try and find interested players. Maybe if KU targeted midrange players hard and lowered the amount of offers but that would make missing even more brutal so idk.
Our thought as KU fans is typically that yeah these players would be lining up but it’s really not the case. Recruiting is about relationships and it might be time for an assistant change or two.
I must say I’m intrigued about the possibility of changing up the assistant coaching ranks. Has the message gotten stale from our older assistants Norm and KT? Do we need younger blood in here with some different connections and familiar recruiting territories? We all know Self is a loyal man, basically all of his assistants have left for bigger coaching jobs so he really hasn’t "fired’’ someone but maybe its time. I wonder if Self thinks any of he recent years recruiting misses are coaching related… It can’t hurt to find out
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Well KT was our bag man. He was the one who “landed” all of the OAD guys… So maybe his role is starting to get limited to an extent due to current circumstances. But you don’t fire your bag man. KT was probably 5 words away from an indictment. Self isn’t cutting ties.
Norm, I really don’t know enough about.
Snacks, in my opinion, is likely to land a HC job in the next 3-4 years.
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@Kcmatt7 I think you bring up a very good point. I agree, sustained, consistent, year in year out success, may be compromised. But then again, I’m one that is glad the Big 12 streak is over. I think it eliminates a useless distraction. I want national titles. But I think you can be consistently successful as a blue blood without the presumed OAD mess.
From 2013 -2017, a certain team kind of did it this way. Hint, they won the NC in 2017. Also, the #9 guy was not a presumed OAD. They compete for NCs better than we do. Here are ranking numbers from that certain CBB team, '13-'17: 16/58/121; 9/15/30; 96/155; 25/48/60; 30/131/193/217/267.
This is a similarly situated blue blood.
Of course it’s UNC.
I know Roy does recruit top guys, he just doesn’t get them usually – like he just got one for last season. My point is that if you look at the numbers, and if you look at the fact that in that time frame there was not one presumed OAD, it clearly makes it plausible.
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UNC has much better player retention and guys that play for Roy typically stay longer than expected for whatever reason.
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Those “work them out situations” we talk about, like we sort of hope is happening with Doke, Devonte before him etc… they seem to happen at UNC a lot.
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@BShark They must like Ol Roy. He is actually a pretty charming fellow. Didn’t have a lot of fallout when he was at Kansas either!!
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@HighEliteMajor Roy is probably the best about it.
But, and this is key, he gets to recruit out of the state of North Carolina (and the surrounding states).
- Theo Pinson, from NC.
- Brice Johnson, from SC.
- Isaiah Hicks, from NC.
- Kennedy Meeks, from NC.
- Coby White, from NC.
- Leaky Black, from NC.
- Jalek Felton, from SC.
- Brandon Huffman, from NC.
- Luke Maye, from NC.
- Kenny Williams, from VA.
- Nate Britt, from D.C.
- James Michael McAdoo, from VA.
- PJ Hairston, from VA.
- Reggie Bullock, from NC.
- Kendall Marshall, from VA.
- Ed Davis, VA. Ty Lawson, Southern MD.
- Marcus Ginyard, from VA.
- Will Graves, from NC
- Reyshawn Terry, from NC.
That is a lot of talent coming from in his back yard. Often times, he’s getting the best player in NC who is a cornerstone piece to build around and a top 25 guy. Then he takes an easy flight to Florida to recruit. And maybe a couple more to small time guys that him and staff hit it off with on the AAU circuit.
The best player in KS HS history, Semi Ojeleye, didn’t even give KU a whiff. Went to Duke.
Perhaps it is Bill’s fault for not prioritizing local talent and not turning over every rock. It’s possible that we could have had Buddy Hield. Ron Baker and Willy Cauley-Stein. Even add in KCMO, Landry Shamet and Shaqille Harrison and Alec Burks.
Still, there is not enough local talent to fill years and year of rosters like Roy has had.
128 players who played HS ball in NC have gone on to the NBA. Missouri and Kansas Combined have only put in 96 combined. Viginia has 125 themselves. Washington D.C. has put 45 in. There is a major influx of basketball talent in that vicinity, and they’re the top brand. It’s an easy sell. Come play at a top school, with top facilities, and be able to go to almost every game live. UVA, Wake, Duke, NC State, Clemson and VT are all right there too. So at least half of the road games are driveable. Plus the conference tournament is typically in NC. And, an NCAA tournament site is typically very close.
So, not only do we not have talent in our backyard, Roy even has something to sell the talent that is there. He has the East Coast platform. They are a Nike darling. They are within driving distance or at home of a ton of their games. They have top notch facilities. They have the perfect pitch, no?
We, on the other hand, are not only having to get kids to come here from far away, we are competing against the other Blue Bloods and their local schools. We have to convince them that traveling to Lawrence, KS is the best decision for them. Away from their families. Away from their friends. Away form the beach. Away from warmer weather. Away from everything else.
It makes it much harder, imo. A very different animal.
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Luke Maye is their Lightfoot and he was going to walk-on or something like that right? Really puts the difference in perspective.
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@BShark They have Mitch Lightfoots all over the state begging to walk-on for them.
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I didn’t want to really add this part in, but I do think it’s relevant. It is much easier to hide impermissible benefits to local kids and their parents. Having talent in your backyard, with the local fanbase everywhere, makes it very easy to do things like get them a big time promotion. A deal on a car. A deal on a house. Yada yada yada.
When you move someone’s mom in from Philly, it’s a whole hell of a lot more noticeable.
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Kcmatt7 said:
When you move someone’s mom in from Philly, it’s a whole hell of a lot more noticeable.
CANT IMAGINE WHO THIS IS REFERRING TOO
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@nuleafjhawk Inbox me the recipe please. All the rest of ya’ll inbox me the recipe for a winning team next year.
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@Kcmatt7 I think the reference to recruiting area is clearly relevant. But that’s no different than if we are recruiting top guys, or 100+. We have a proximity issue.
When you look west and south, though, kids are having to fly to most preferred destinations.
But not for one minute should any of us think that any excuse is relevant for KU. We’re a top 5 program. So the excuses are irrelevant. I find the excuses laughable actually. I understand the factual nature of the data, I just find it’s applicability to top 5 program, a blue blood like KU, pretty much irrelevant.
If Kansas focused on the non-OAD through - 80ish, made the commitment to avoid the presumed OAD, that would have to be attractive to a recruit in that range or higher. Logical. Why? Just look at Andrew White as an example. If I’m recruiting against KU, I say look at Andrew White. Self brings him in, then snags Wiggins and White is marginalized. White’s college career was then chaos. He got run out of Kansas. Self won’t commit to you. He chases the OAD. So you could be junior and he’ll bring in a top guy just when you need to the PT the most to make it to the NBA. Heck, KU had Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, and Bill Self was working hard to get De’Aaron Fox, and was a finalist until the end. Would he have displaced Mason? How would that have impacted Mason’s NBA prospects?
Or, we can continue to do what Self has done.
I’ll sacrifice making the tourney every so often for more pronounced spikes.
And those spikes can be from talent that grows, develops, and stays longer.
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BShark said:
Luke Maye is their Lightfoot and he was going to walk-on or something like that right? Really puts the difference in perspective.
Luke’s dad was a QB at Carolina back in the day, and was a walk-on his freshman year just because he wanted to be a Tar Heel.
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@Kcmatt7 wow, great post… Where to start? I one-hundred percent agree about the lack of local talent and without a doubt that definitely makes it harder to recruit. That being said, though, while we need to cast a wide net we still need to concentrate on some of the local talent in, specifically, Wichita and KC - Baker, Shamet, Heild, Braun and Agbaji. These guys tend to stick around and provide excellent depth and a solid foundation that we can build and count on. Recruit every year a highly ranked top 25 or 50 player or two or three, as needed? Sure, but not all in on only top 10 players at the expense of solid, seasoned depth that, if you think about it, is what made KU what it was and is. We’ve gotten away from that for the past several years and it is now biting us bigtime. Top 100 players (or in Agbaji, Braun and - I know, he’s from Arkansas, but still… - McBride’s case even lower) should not be ignored - not building quality depth is why we now find ourselves taking redshirts and transfers. Recruiting nationwide is fine, but I would take a pass on the for sure OADs… They do not win National Championships, and leave your team bereft of seasoned talent, chemistry and depth. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
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Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
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Woodrow said:
Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
He and Watford are mutually exclusive there. If Watford announces for Memphis, here we come.
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They have 50/50 for Enaruna going to KU on rivals. It was changed today I believe from 100% Creighton
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The change is Shay so lol.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Woodrow said:
Last two crystal ball picks have been to Memphis for Precious. I tend to think that’s where he ends up.
He and Watford are mutually exclusive there. If Watford announces for Memphis, here we come.
Seems like Watford is tending towards LSU with Wade back. Although that is a very fluid situation with a new AD and FBI stuff.
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@Woodrow Watford will pick LSU if Wade is there.
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@HighEliteMajor nice UNC comp!
Im thinking maybe we should start a shared Google spreadsheet to aggregate our info on recruiting class rankings and how they pan out for several teams, including transfers (it seems silly at this point that rivals etc don’t include transfers as part of recruiting classes. Archaic!) As always my appetite exceeds my drive to do it alone. Would you guys be interested in working on such a thing with me?
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Another sheet I want to start is success of coaches in tournaments, including coaching tree info (this guy was this other guys understudy)
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Woodrow said:
https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1119260240032219138?s=21
Not surprising
The comments seem to be in-line with what we’re all thinking.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 I think the reference to recruiting area is clearly relevant. But that’s no different than if we are recruiting top guys, or 100+. We have a proximity issue.
This is true. But, it is also relevant for consistently building a team based around 4 year guys. Of the top 100, 50 guys ended up at a local/regional school. (Basically I counted anything less than a 5 hour drive). 28 of those ranked 100-150 went close to home.
That essentially eliminates half of the pool. If I were to limit it a bit further, like anything NE and stayed NE. Or SE and stayed SE, that number gets significantly smaller. 95/150 players stayed regionally based. So, really, we are down to 50-60 players willing to travel away from home each year.
When you look west and south, though, kids are having to fly to most preferred destinations.
But not for one minute should any of us think that any excuse is relevant for KU. We’re a top 5 program. So the excuses are irrelevant. I find the excuses laughable actually. I understand the factual nature of the data, I just find it’s applicability to top 5 program, a blue blood like KU, pretty much irrelevant.
So if any argument is irrelevant, what is the point of even having this discussion. You won’t even open your mind up a little bit. Here is the thing, it is all relevant. It is. All of it.
If Kansas focused on the non-OAD through - 80ish, made the commitment to avoid the presumed OAD, that would have to be attractive to a recruit in that range or higher. Logical. Why? Just look at Andrew White as an example. If I’m recruiting against KU, I say look at Andrew White. Self brings him in, then snags Wiggins and White is marginalized. White’s college career was then chaos. He got run out of Kansas. Self won’t commit to you.
You are remembering it wrong. AWIII was ran out of here by B-Green. Who Self picked over him. Wiggins was not the problem Green played, and would have played, over him.
He chases the OAD. So you could be junior and he’ll bring in a top guy just when you need to the PT the most to make it to the NBA. Heck, KU had Frank Mason and Devonte Graham, and Bill Self was working hard to get De’Aaron Fox, and was a finalist until the end. Would he have displaced Mason? How would that have impacted Mason’s NBA prospects?
This is a complete hypothetical. Who knows how it turns out for Frank. And, again, you’re remembering it wrong. Fox was an early commit nobody thought was coming here. Go look at the CB picks. Most picks were coming well before he ever even took a visit.
Or, we can continue to do what Self has done.
I’ll sacrifice making the tourney every so often for more pronounced spikes.
I very much doubt this. I don’t think you would be ok with this. Enduring years of misery, hoping we can put it all together for one year. And, what if we don’t? What if we finally get a group of 7 solid upperclassmen and we shit the bed? We are supposed to be ok with waiting another 4,5 6 years before we put it all together again and have a chance?
And those spikes can be from talent that grows, develops, and stays longer.
It sounds like what you want is to be like Indiana. Because that is what KU would become if we went with your strategy. We are in a talent desert. Chicago and St. Louis are our only regional places producing talent. And there is plenty of competition in those areas between KU and MSU and the dozen other schools that surround those two cities.
You look at this with Crimson and Blue goggles and basically say, there is no reason KU should be able to offer a kid ranked 80, and him jump on the opportunity. That is simply not true. Over half of the players available each given season wouldn’t jump at it.
Once you start playing the ShoeCo games too, that number goes from half, to even less. Kai Jones is a perfect example. A Brewster kid that loved KU. We have it on good authority, KU would have been HIS choice. But Nike and Texas took care of him. And guess where he went? KU would have taken him in a heartbeat. KU Offered him. He did not jump at that opportunity. He took the money.
You also think that “recruiting over” only happens with OAD players. That’s not true either. BG was a better player than AWIII. He was. And AWIII would have left regardless because he was never going to start at KU. And he knew that.
Low ranked Frank Mason kicked Frankamps ass back to Wichita. Frank and Devonte forced out Nadiir too.
It is going to happen regardless. And you’re going to end up with unbalanced classes, especially with the way the transfer market has changed. So, you have a team with Frank, DG, Svi, Vick and LL. A damn good team. You would rather have some no name player than JJ come in and help that team. Where is that team without JJ? A 4 or 5 seed and another early tournament flame out.
Frank DESERVED JJ and at least a shot at winning. We didn’t land anything else before JJ either. And we tried. JJ didn’t hurt a thing. Without him, I’m afraid that team struggles to even make the tournament. He was that good.
Wiggins didn’t hurt a thing. He was an April commit with nobody else coming in. One year and done. And without him we are probably not a tournament team. Again, White left after that season knowing that he was never going to be #1 in the pecking order. He was already behind BG. There was no impact from it. And that team lost double digits with him, they weren’t losing less games without him. Hell, they ended up a 2 seed because of him, really.
Maybe Xavier messed things up for the Sherron SR. year. It’s possible. That team also went 33-3 so I think it’s hard to say that. Xavier shot .418 from 3 and was efficient all around. 1.5 steals per game is pretty damn good… What happens to that team without a wing who can score it and shoot it that well? Sherron and Cole were already doing about as much as they could.
We saw what happens when you recruit guys that are 100+. You get LLs and Jamari’s. I don’t want Landen’s and Jamari’s. I want us to try to field the best damn team we can year in and year out. Period. Especially because, mathematically speaking, we have to essentially offer every Top 100 player that is an Adidas kid and then see which ones are even open to leaving home and we aren’t already deep at that position.
You also ignore the fact that players want to play and they want to play right away. Nobody likes sitting the bench. What guarantee could we give a player? If you come sit here for two years, you’ll get to play? But only if a guy we bring in next season doesn’t progress faster than you. Or are you suggesting that Bill purposely sit better players? You see, this is the problem with your strategy. There is no guarantee you ever see the court at the University of Kansas. No matter who you are. No matter what strategy we take. We are KU. We get talent. We will play the best talent for our system. That may or may not be you. If you don’t like that someone jumped you, you transfer. All of a sudden, the guy who jumped you went pro. We now have a giant hole. But we have 4 other positions locked down. How do we fill this hole? We have a 80+ ranked guy coming in, but he isn’t ready to play at this level yet…
You make it sound so, so much easier than it is. These aren’t excuses. These are the cold hard facts. And you can ignore them and continue to decry Self for chasing talent, but this is the realistic look at recruiting from the University of Kansas in 2019.
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Woodrow said:
https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1119260240032219138?s=21
Not surprising
Oh man, Jon must have such great sources.
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@Kcmatt7 knocks it out of the park above. Read and re-read that post because it is exactly true.
For every Frank Mason (guy ranked in the 50 - 100 range that develops into an NBA player) there are a dozen Conner Frankamps. For every Ron Baker, there are ten Rio Adams. That’s just the nature of things. Once you drop down below the top 20 or 30 players (guys that generally are both skilled and athletic) you have to bet on skilled kids that may not have the athleticism to translate to the next level, or athletic kids that may never be skilled enough to contribute in a meaningful way at a program like KU.
Some kids just don’t improve much once they get to college. It’s not a lack of effort or hard work. It’s just that they have already maximized their athleticism or skill level (or both). I think someone like Perry Ellis is a great example of this. I would never question Perry’s work ethic or commitment. He was as good a player, and from all reports, as good a person, as you would hope to have wearing the Crimson and Blue. But Perry also came to KU as a bit of a finished product. He improved while in Lawrence, of course. He matured as a player and as a person. But if you were to compare his development curve to that of Frank Mason, there’s a clear separation (why Frank is in the NBA while Perry is not). Perry had nearly maximized his development before arriving at KU. He was already at 80% of what he would eventually become. Frank was probably only at 50% or so.
When recruiting, you have to look for that, but that’s more art than science. You don’t know if a kid has already topped out their growth, athleticism or skills. You won’t find that out until they come into the program and start lifting, being challenged by more skilled peers, etc.
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That was @Kcmatt7 magnum opus, I feel.
Oh and HEM doesn’t want LLs or Jamaris either that is on record.
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@BShark I feel I should just let @Kcmatt7’s epic stand without any trivial reply … it is persuasive. The best line, “You make it sound so, so much easier than it is.” Great post.
Perhaps that’s my major weakness on this. I am making it sound too easy.
Is there any doubt, though, that a team can, quite easily, ignore presumed OADs? How many teams really even have a shot at a presumed OAD?
The question then is the results of that. How does that impact the product on the court?
I personally believe that Self is better off as a coach, without it. That he can succeed at a high level without it. He would be better without that, overall. And we can compete for titles.
Proof? What presumed OAD took us to levels we wouldn’t have achieved without him for that one season? Wiggins? Second round exit (I know, Embiid was hurt). Or JJ? Elite Eight?
And remember, I have no issue with LL or JT in a proper, limited role. I barked about that on JT for what seemed like a lifetime. 10 - 12 minutes? Cool. 20+? Disaster. Same with LL. They were severely miscast as high minutes players. No one in retrospect disagrees with that, I think.
But clearly, my argument has weaknesses. The biggest one is that the top coaches DO go after the top presumed OADs. They must be doing that for a reason when considering all factors.
**Sidenote, AWIII would have started his freshman year without Wiggins on the roster. It’s why I said he was “marginalized.”
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Matthew Hurt to Duke.
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Welp see where Kentucky offered Johnny Juzang today after a in home visit - - -YIPPEE - we were 50/50.
The boys on the phog are smoking Self’s and staffs ass - -crying the end of the world is here. - -Sorry I don’t jump ship- - guess that’s the difference between a FAN - -and a Bandwagon fan. -Huge difference between a true fan and someone who is a fan ONLY when nothing but roses. - Comments such as Self and staff are sitting on their ass’s while other teams out recruiting - -Ya that’s exactly right Bill and the boys are at Coach’s office watching porn and drinkin beer while others are recruiting - -ya that’s exactly what’s going on.
People talking about how the FBI thing hasn’t hurt Louisville and Arizona - they doing just fine? - -Guess what Phase 2 of this trial starts Monday - -Arizona , Louisville , Creighton , Oklahoma State , USC , are in the fore front in this phase - -Watch how these recruits jump ship from Arizona - when things get hot - come talk to me later -dam people like this just P - - - - OFF - -fricken bunch of Billy wanna be fans.
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@HighEliteMajor Thanks for the reply. I do think we could avoid Presumed OADs, but I have my doubts about the results. I’ll explain more below.
Lets start with a scenario where you have talent, but not quite enough to win a NC without adding an immediate impact player capable of helping your team.
Let me even say we were following your plan, only slightly altered. Let’s say we build a team from 25-75 ranked recruits, successfully. Likely, because of our success, one or more guys are going to develop too quickly get poached by the NBA. Now, I’d like us to think of the 08 team, specifically. Wright and Rush were poached. If not for Rush’s knee injury, I think we all agree the 08 team likely doesn’t do what they did. For the sake of the scenario, let’s pretend Rush’s knee injury doesn’t happen and he’s gone as well. We have to replace him.
In one corner, stands Option A: a 6’5 175lb noodle of a freshman, ranked 55th in the class. He would love to come to KU. But he is not ready to contribute from day one. Walk-ons would eat him alive at this point. By conference season, he’s worth 8-10 MPG. (Rodrick Stewart is now getting 20 MPG. Yikes)
In another corner, stands option B: A 6’6 215 lb wing and Top 5 pick in the NBA draft would also like to come to KU. He is better than your current SF on the depth chart (Rodrick Steward) but he won’t give you 4 years like option A would. He increases your chances of a NC from 200/1 to 8/1.
Isn’t it a disservice to Sasha, Darnell, RR and Mario to take the lesser guy? Did they not earn their shot at a NC? Or do they not deserve one for not winning one while they had Wright and Rush?
I think you owe them the best chance you can give them to try for a NC if you have the rest of the pieces in place.
And before you fully commit to “OADs don’t give anyone anything,” let’s also look at those numbers. I think KU OADs to date might have been what has turned you sour on them.
This is just going off of getting to the FF.
- 2019 - Nadda. Nobody.
- 2018 - Omari Spellman. Maybe he wasn’t PRESUMED OAD. But he was one. He was ranked 20th and within the range of being one. He played damn good ball. He went. He was a OAD.
- 2017 - Zach Collins. Same as above basically. Except ranked 28th.
- 2016 - Malachi Richardson - Syracuse. Ranked 28th. So similar to the guys above
- 2015 - Okafor, Winston, Jones, Kat, Booker and Lyles.
- 2014 - Randle and Young
- 2013 - None. Nadda.
- 2012- Davis, Kidd-Gilchrest, Teague
- 2011 - Knight
- 2010 - None. Nadda.
- 2009 - None. Nadda.
- 2008 - Love, Rose
- 2007 - Oden, Cook and Conley.
- 2006 - Tyrus Thomas
10 FFs out of the 14 since the rule was put in place have had OAD freshman. Not all presumed, I’ll concede that. Still, finding an impact Freshman is absolutely key. That or convincing guys to stay. Even if I narrowed it down to Presumed though, 7 of the last 14 FFs had Presumed OADs play in them. That’s a pretty good percent.
And, I’ll even concede that I think Self’s system may not lend itself to OADs like Cal or K or even Roy tbh. They commit to it. They change their system around their talent. Self tries to fit his talent in his system. The JJ year, Self was literally forced to adapt to his team because of having 4 guards and no post presence. And I think that is why we saw JJ thrive.
But, this is the part that scares me. I do think we could probably avoid the Top 10 and be ok. Probably. But let’s return to our scenario. Ideally we want a guy ranked high enough he can come in and help, but not so high he leaves. So we laser in on guys ranked 20-40. And this is where the problems with avoiding OADs start. Out of those 20 guys we laser in on, only 10 may be willing to travel to play. Of that 10, only 4 are probably not Nike leans. Of those 4, 2-3 may not be a position of need. So you go from a pool of 20 guys down to literally one or two recruits that make or breaks your season. So, if you miss, you miss BIG.
Instead, we currently cast a net from 1-40. 20 of those guys are staying home. 6 are Adidas guys. And you have 3 or 4 chances at landing that impact player your roster needs to be NC caliber the next season. Throw in the tidbit that Adidas is willing to fork out bigger bucks for anyone ranked Top 15 because they want to sign them to a deal after this year, and it becomes much easier to recruit/sway some of these “presumed OADs”.
Or you decide to commit to the rebuild, scrap it, and go for a guy ranked 41-100 instead. I’m sure Sasha, Darnell and RR will get over it.
That’s what makes recruiting so damn tough though.
Feel free to respond, as I don’t think this can really go negative (at this point). It’s a genuinely interesting conversation and has made me pull data I was too lazy to pull at other times. As nice as you guys make me feel about my piece, this is a place for discussion.
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@jayballer73 - just read on Yahoo Sports where wiretaps won’t be heard and Miller and the LSU coach won’t testify. Not relevant to this particular case. So… those schools get off free without penalty to players? SMH…
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Gorilla72 said:
@jayballer73 - just read on Yahoo Sports where wiretaps won’t be heard and Miller and the LSU coach won’t testify. Not relevant to this particular case. So… those schools get off free without penalty to players? SMH…
ya I saw that earlier - -yet however we are different cases - -if they aren’t hearing the wire taps in this - -there has been talk about wiretap from our staff right? - -so fi that was the case you wouldn’t think that kind of thing would be allowed either right? - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
