Moore
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I laughed so hard that now I have to clean green smoothie off my monitor and keyboard!
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I’m hearing that everyone except maybe Doke is working hard on their threy accuracy this summer!
We’ll find a couple of good shooters… long ways to go until tip off!
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I agree, except for Silvio. He is just too good to keep off the floor, UNLESS…unless he and Jay Wright and Bill Self and Jay Bilas are already in some kind of @BShark insider knowledge based, purely conjectural, but fantastically high confidence witness relocation program as we type. Booga booga!
“Paranoia strikes deep
Into your heart it will creep…”
—Buffalo Springfield, “For What It’s Worth”
Ahem.
Self tries to get his best 5 guys on the floor.
U r probably right at season’s start.
I guess Silvio could back up all year, because he has less experience than Ded and Doke, but…
Wow! Silvio seems a potential NBA stud to me already with just a half season of grooming.
Silvio seems the best big Self has recruited other than The Lion Slayer.
Normally he would sit and learn for a season, but he sat and learned half a season last year instead of attending Prom!
OMG!
Self has to find a place for him at tip off, by mid season, if @BShark, the Feds and the NCAA don’t deny him.
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drgnslayr said:
I’m hearing that everyone except maybe Doke is working hard on their threy accuracy this summer!
We’ll find a couple of good shooters… long ways to go until tip off!
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I never recall more than one mid 30% bricker transmogrifying into a 40% trifectater in a single season, do you?
Therefore the odds of even two of our guys reaching the 40% level seem slim.
And frankly, a team apparently needs at least 3 even to hang on against other teams with 4-6 from the Elite on.
I fear the days of Elite Eight and higher teams with only 1 > 39% trifectaters are behind us, maybe even with only two, also.
But I like your optimism!
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jaybate 1.0 said:
I never recall more than one mid 30% bricker transmogrifying into a 40% trifectater in a single season, do you?
2014-2015
- Svi - 0.288
- Manning- 0.333
2015-2016
- Svi - 0.402
- Manning- 0.500
You were saying?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
@BShark but not starting? Who knows! 5 guard rotation? I would say grimes for sure, that’s it.
He might. Staff loves him that much we know. Going to be a battle for minutes.
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He was asking for more than one player in the same seasons. He seems to think that teams will start stocking up 3-point shooters when in reality Villanova was an aberration and far from the norm.
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@drgnslayr Glad to be of assistance! Those fond memories…
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@JayHawkFanToo Evan went 1 for 3 to 2 for 4?
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He asked for percentages…
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JayHawkFanToo said:
…when in reality Villanova was an aberration and far from the norm.
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Can an aberration be near the norm, or would it just be near the norm?
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@jaybate-1.0 Aberrations are the new normal.
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I understand the fear.
But let’s face it… any team we face that gets hot from trey is a team we can lose to, regardless of their personnel or ours.
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Evan Manning?
Um, no.
Two rotation players the same season that start the same season as 30% brickers from the previous season and end up >39%ers with > 100 3pt attempts. Capice?
I love it when you reach desperately though!!!
Hey, I’ll go you one better! (Nudge, nudge, wink, wink)
I also went from 25% to 50% in 4 three point attempts in a grey hair league!!! That’s a total of three: Svi, Manning and Me!!!
You were saying?
Say, is Rummie a big Trump supporter?
Trump is starting look more and more like Jeremiah Johnson, isn’t he?
Oh, eh, u don’t like political talk mixed in. I withdraw the comment.
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mayjay said:
@jaybate-1.0 Aberrations are the new normal.
Well put.
In statistical terms, the formal and informal institutions have been parameters recalibrated to bias toward greater sigma around mu.
It does no oligarchy much good to rig a system to stasis (low variance), for that makes it hard to unstick and redirect the system brought under control (at considerable shifted cost) where you want it to go.
Gotta design in a little wiggle to reduce stickiness.
And the more you control you have the more variance you can afford to (and so want to) design in, so that stickiness becomes almost no obstacle at all.
Strange tendencies within what appears frightening chaos to others can be as good of ally as order in moving complex systems off their legacy equilibrium strategy.
This was one of the most impactful insights of chaos and complexity theories application in systems management.
Or so it seems to this fan.
But you still have to be vigilant about unforeseen consequences
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drgnslayr said:
I understand the fear.
But let’s face it… any team we face that gets hot from trey is a team we can lose to, regardless of their personnel or ours.
This is why I think what Jay did is so important to learn the lesson of.
With six > 39% trey balllers and all but two ranked 75-100 (that was for @BShark), you can win most of the time even against teams with only 2-3 >39% trey ballers, even when they are hot!
Basically, for you to lose with 6 trey ballers all six have to blow cold. It just doesn’t matter much what the other team does.
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Interesting concept.
Add in the ability for offensive rebounds. At what clip do we rebound? That changes all your numbers.
Treys usually create rebounds covering a wider area, which should give offensive teams a bit more advantage because it’s harder to defend that much turf for rebounding.
I’m not sure what to think about our big post presence for next year.
I kind of felt like Self was just getting the hang of a 4-guard offense.
It wasn’t long ago when we were talking about “BAD BALL” and grind games.
I’m guessing you have watched plenty of GS basketball, especially in the playoffs.
What I noticed… there is not such a thing as a “bad shot” for GS if it’s behind the trey line.
Curry and company will often toss bricks for 3 quarters or so and they seem to not even care. All they have to do is stay within striking distance.
Their concept is “to establish their style of play” and then the game is typically long enough for them to hit a stride or two at some point. When they are on, they are on… and no lead is safe while they build a lead that can grow to be safe. You can often see GS give up an under the basket easy stuff to kick for a difficult trey attempt. Imagine Self buying into this?!
Watch body language. Use your remote and go back to some horrible missed treys by GS, and then watch their body language after the bad misses. You can’t tell they even missed those shots. It is because they understand. They understand after those shots that the shot isn’t falling but the only way to hit stride is to be playing the right style. The only thing missing is the make.
The one thing I’m certain about GS is they have a unique view of treys over the entire rest of the league. They were almost laughing at Lebron on his easy score drives. Lebron could have scored 100 points and lost. What Lebron needs to learn is what Durant had to learn; the next level is to become a lethal threat from trey and then don’t hesitate to take over games. The real difference in this series was Durant. Durant started heating up on the long ball, often from 35 feet. Lebron is close to being that capable of a shooter, and he certainly could become one. But he needs to change his perspective. I’m sure those easy drive finishes feel fantastic for him, but those need to be the bail out points and not the overall strategy.
But we have to remember that D1 is not the NBA. I still believe it is primarily defense that is the best weapon to take into March. Nova hit everything on us… but they also played really good defense and they neutralized our trey ball by defending up high. They also didn’t seem to mind if we scored in the paint.
What we really need is for one or two of our bigs to become efficient at trey. That’s a real game changer because there are few players in D1 that can guard that. Heck… few players in the NBA, too. No one can really stop Kevin Durant.
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When ever I can get you thinking about the game’s frontier, I learn a lot. Thanks for responding.
Your comparison of Durant and Lebron distills things elegantly, and I hope everyone reads your post and stays to the end to read and absorb it.
All competitive activities originate in two points of view and play out according to choices that alter the opportunity sets of each other, choice by choice, for the duration of the competition.
If Kerr had signed Lebron instead of, Durant, and Durant had gone to Cleveland, it appears Lebron would have developed his trey and be draining them much as Durant is now. And Durant would likely still be feinting many more trey attempts and driving through Golden State the same way Lebron was doing.
Culture affects human being’s points of view.
A team is a culture.
Durant has embraced the Golden State culture.
Lebron has embraced the Cleveland culture.
Cleveland should hire Luke Walton, or someone that gets the Golden State culture, and get on with trying to do it better with Lebron. Lebron is still the biggest athletic freak on the planet (to quote Self) at his position. Persons forget that it takes great springs and great strength to shoot the long trey. Durant is not just a great shooter, he is a great athlete on the order of Lebron, but it appears to me that Lebron still holds an advantage over Durant as a physical specimen of athletic prowess. Lebron is something like Wilt Chamberlain in that he seems able to master anything he sets his mind to master. I have little doubt that he could become the deepest trey threat of all, because of his fabulous strength.
I am not exaggerating, when I say I believe Lebron could become a proficient 40 foot trey shooter, if a coach laid in a 3pt culture and said this is what we need from you to win rings tell hell freezes over.
And here is why Lebron triggering from 40 feet, instead of Durant’s triggering from 35, could be a decisive advantage for the team that decided to deploy Lebron in this way. Every foot farther out that a team initiates the trey attempts from adds a foot of trey shooting space “underneath” the farthest distance that treys are taken from. By using Lebron’s fabulous strength and athleticism to become a credible threat to launch the trey from 40 feet, massively increases the area “underneath” where Lebron could dish off to for an absolutely open look trey.
Everything has changed about offense except the way we think about it. Kerr, whether on his own, or from skulling with Tex Winter, or Phil Jackson, or whomever, has exposed how the farther away from a basket a team can reliably initiate the trey the more it opens up the “underneath” trey. IMHO, what makes Golden State so tough is not just the number of treys they take, but great distance from the basket that they are willing to take them from. I have not seen statistics on this but it is my expectation that Golden State takes more open look treys than anyone else, not just more treys.
This insight occurred to me after watching Jay Wright’s Villanova team in the tournament this past year. Nova didn’t just take more treys, they took more from farther out. And some of them were just jaw-droopingly far out. Their Italian Stallion guard took a few from distances that I frankly could not believe he could reliably even hit the rim. But he was deadly. Then when you go back an think about what his super long treys did to the “spacing” in the three point area of the court, one sees the offenders basically able to be another 5-8 feet farther apart from the ball. When their longest long ball threat was working out front, and even threatening to take a trey, the defenders on the wings had to EITHER float out much closer to the wing they were guarding, OR they had to float out much farther into the passing lane. Either choice resulted in the wing man having MUCH MORE room to move to get open and to shoot the trey from a convenient arch for him. Not all of Nova’s trifectates could take and make the 35 footer like the Italian stallion, but having him out front posing the threat fantastically opened up the three point are “underneath” for open looks by guys who needed to receive the ball 23-27 out. I believe this effect goes on with Golden State, also. And Golden State has two guys–Curry and Durant–that can shoot it from high earth orbit. And the real force multiplier comes when one of them is out at 35 feet threatening to take the trey and the other is “underneath” looking for an open look 28 footer, which is practically a mid range jumper for this quality of professional shooter.
Hence, my hunch is that if a team were to leverage Lebron’s freakish athleticism to learn to gun a 40 foot trey, instead of a 30 foot trey, and get him two teammates capable of shooting the 25-35 foot trey, Lebron’ s team might get even more open look, uncontested treys than GS.
Yes, at some distance with some athletes there are diminishing returns on make rates.
Maybe Kerr sets the 35 foot range where he does, because that is what Durant and Curry can handle.
All the better to see if Lebron can learn to be the first king of the 40 foot three.
The inside game will not disappear. It will adjust to the long rebounding you describe and to having better and better passers for big men. Developing big men that can not only range and grab the long rebounds, but also either take and make the trey, or, more likely, pass like guards and hit the open trey shooters in the hands on the way up for their long treys seems the future of big men to me at the pro level.
And what happens at the pro level inevitably trickles down over time, usually in diluted form, to the college game.
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Kevin Durant in his years before joining GS 1.9 4.8 .384. That includes a pretty rancid rookie year and his first two years skew his attempt numbers down. Durant has always been a great shooter. His last year in OKC was better than his first year in OKC from range, pretty easily. Last three years at OKC 3PA per game: 6.1, 5.9, 6.7. First two years at GS 5, 6.1. So, did going to GS really fundamentally change Durant? I would say no.
Lebron for his career 1.5 4.4 .337.
Lebron definitely didn’t have the shooters that GS has, which I believe is what you were saying. Curry is a transcendent shooter and Klay isn’t very far behind. Durant for his position and size is very good too. It’s a pretty specially constructed roster. Houston had a real chance to beat them though, if CP3’s hamstring wasn’t cursed. I really would have liked to have seen that. GS still might have won, but it would have been MUCH more interesting.
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I’m not sure I’ve ever read one of your posts where I thought you nailed it this well.
I’m totally with you… Lebron should work on mastering the 40-ft shot. And you are right… not all treys are the same and the further you go out you are telling the defense they have to stretch that far, too.
I recall the first time GS took it to Lebron and he said he was going to go work on distance treys, and he did. I think we’ve seen him extending his range, but he just doesn’t have the conviction (mindset) GS players have.
Yes… GS could have done well to take Lebron over Durant, and yes, Lebron’s strength should extend his range.
I wonder when the NBA will make backcourt baskets worth 4 points? It sounds ludicrous, but it would start to impact the game at some point. You put a carrot out there and the players will go for it and master it. Players “practice” the long ball from backcourt, but they do it for fun and not to learn precision.
I do believe the “Golden State Effect” has changed all of basketball. Finally a team that really embraces the trey enough to be “all in!”
I feel sure Jay Wright gets it.
As to our team, I agree with everyone that the trey ball will not come as plentiful this year. But I’m sure we will have games where we scorch from trey.
Shooters like Svi and BG don’t come around every year… but did we really improve that much with these players? We also sacrificed defense.
I think I would be looking for marksmen who have the ability to bring a lot more to the game than just the trey ball. And it sends a message to your team that you are willing to sacrifice defense and rebounding if a guy can shoot the rock from trey. I’m not sure that is an attitude I would want running through my team.
Pros are so much different than D1 players. First… they are older and wiser (or should be). Second… this is their living. They see what money has brought them… fancy homes, cars… and fancy wives that demand a lot! Their motivated to listen to the right coaches and focus on those goals. D1… there is emotion and desire, but there also exists outside temptations and a juvenile mindset that makes it tough for them to focus like the pros do.
I curse his name every time we play them… but ultimately, I respect Jay Wright, if for no other reason than his ability to get his players to buy in 100%! That’s really tough to do, especially in D1!
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If you want a real advantage on offense…
Essentially… you turn what might otherwise be a very good defense into one that is really only with 4 players on defense. All you need is a center that is proficient from trey!
Few 5s can defend from trey, and if they do, you have them away from the basket, where their gifts of rebounding and shot blocking are now neutralized.
Using the “Golden State Effect” even further… forget the 4-guard offense! Think 5-guard offense! Think about how effective a guy like Kevin Durant could be in college right now! Imagine if his coach would understand the game well enough to really take advantage of his abilities? He is tall enough to fill the paint, but can kill from trey!
Let’s bring this home to Kansas again… Didn’t Konate return to WVU for the upcoming year? I think so. He’s quite a shot blocker. If we really want to think like GS… we would have a team of shooters, including at the 5 so we would pull Konate out of the paint, completely neutralizing his biggest gift of defense!
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drgnslayr said:
If you want a real advantage on offense…
Essentially… you turn what might otherwise be a very good defense into one that is really only with 4 players on defense. All you need is a center that is proficient from trey!
Few 5s can defend from trey, and if they do, you have them away from the basket, where their gifts of rebounding and shot blocking are now neutralized.
Using the “Golden State Effect” even further… forget the 4-guard offense! Think 5-guard offense! Think about how effective a guy like Kevin Durant could be in college right now! Imagine if his coach would understand the game well enough to really take advantage of his abilities? He is tall enough to fill the paint, but can kill from trey!
Let’s bring this home to Kansas again… Didn’t Konate return to WVU for the upcoming year? I think so. He’s quite a shot blocker. If we really want to think like GS… we would have a team of shooters, including at the 5 so we would pull Konate out of the paint, completely neutralizing his biggest gift of defense!
OMG! I opened the door. You kicked it down!!!
Those trey shooting bigs of NOVA completely got me salivating at the five guard concept.
How is this for a new epigram for the modern age of basketball:
“EVERY MAN A GUARD!”
What big man not being channeled against his will by the petroshoeco-agency complex would not sign with a team with that sign up over the locker room door!!!
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Five guards works in high school because talent trumps size at that level, and many teams simply can’t punish a five guard lineup on the glass.
But as you move up, you have to have big guys that can hit the boards. If you have a Durant or Lebron type, that works, but otherwise you have to have someone that can clean the boards.
There have been five guard lineups that have won state titles in high school. I can’t remember a college team (D1) that won a title without a big guy.
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A hot tre balling team can knock anyone from the tournament. The trick is winning when you are cold.
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If the NCAA was a best of series instead of sudden death Bill would be ridiculous to not trot out 4-5 theee point shooters. Since one bad showing can end your season the offense must be more diverse and the defense must be fierce.
Last year KU had a horrible defensive team (for a final four team) especially outside. Hopefully the more athletic longer guards coming in next season will be better defenders.
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dylans said:
A hot tre balling team can knock anyone from the tournament. The trick is winning when you are cold.
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I think Jay Wright showed there is a threshold total number of trey shooters—about six—that efffectively manages the risk of blowing cold.
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@jaybate-1.0 Nova shot horriblily against TexasTech, 33% from the field and won. They got lucky that Tech wasn’t ready for the big stage. Otherwise the whole narrative changes.
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@dylans Worse than that, they were 16.7% from three. And important to that point, though, Nova was very highly ranked in the 3 point defense – their differential of almost 9% between made and allowed has to be close to the leader. Further, Nova shot 1158 threes to their opponents’ 858. KU’s comparison was 974-947. So volume difference exacerbates the % advantage further. Overall, Nova was 13th in three point defense. By comparison, Kansas was 92nd in three point defense. Also, TT shot 25% from three the game vs Nova. Couple Nova’s impressive three point defense, with the other important stat – being first in three point baskets made, that’s a nice recipe.
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Defense was a problem all last season for KU. Good shooting and coaching helped mask it a bit.
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jaybate 1.0 said:
“EVERY MAN A GUARD!”
I like that! Of course we are talking about a few guards at 6’8" to 7’!
I think I’m just frustrated giving my time to watch basketball and some of the players don’t have handles. I don’t want to watch any play with a guy who can’t handle the rock any better than me!
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dylans said:
@jaybate-1.0 Nova shot horriblily against TexasTech, 33% from the field and won. They got lucky that Tech wasn’t ready for the big stage. Otherwise the whole narrative changes.
Like so many that became conditioned to view events too often through the lens of “conspiracy” apparently because of the government’s (or perhaps just the Deep State’s imbedded agents in government, media and the academy, it is still hard to say which) long term propaganda/psy-op campaign of meming with “conspiracy theory”, you appear to be becoming conditioned to view this event through what could turn out to be the government’s (or Deep State’s) psy-ops campaign of meming with “narrative”.
Regardless, I SEE NO “NARRATIVE” HERE.
We are two persons discussing a Villanova basketball team’s historical accomplishments. They really happened. They are not a narrative spun that can change.
What we infer from what happened, i.e., what Villanova accomplished, could be treated disingenuously as a “narrative” to be spun to fool you, or I, but I, at least, can assure you that that is NOT my intent. I am not trying to fool you with a narrative. I am exchanging posts with you about a real event and I am really trying to understand the drivers of its occurance. To reiterate for emphasis, there is no narrative here based on my actions. NONE.
Let me go a little further and add: ““narrative” seems increasingly to be for suckers” to my other epigram, i.e., “conspiracy IS for suckers, unless proven” and then generalize both as “psy-ops are for suckers in general.”
The above noted, NO offense/defense scheme can guaranty victory under all conditions. NONE. Not even John Wooden’s, who on top of having won 10 NCAA championships in 11 years, also had FOUR undefeated seasons!!! Wooden’s UCLA teams were tripped up a number of times, even during his 11 year stretch of greatest success. But it would be silly to say that the narrative would be different, if he his team had shot poorly against a better team instead of the teams it shot poorly against. Right? The point is Wooden’s coaching emphasized through endless indoctrination with the Pyramid of Success that a player had to be at his best when he needed his best and he had to strive to achieve competitive greatness regardless of how well, or poorly, things were going. Maybe Jay Wright, a .600 coach until recently, studied Wooden, or Self, a bit recently, and combined the insights gained with some savvy combining of complementary offensive and defensive strategies to produce a team that could beat another good team on a night that it shot only 33%, and to produce a team that could shoot much better against even better teams when that was needed? Maybe?
Either way, there is no need to assume, or inject, the concept of a “narrative” here.
That clarified, you appear to be misinterpreting the meaning of what NOVA accomplished with 33 percent shooting.
Their combination of offense and defense apparently made them (again without resort to narrative) so tough that they were able to beat TTech, a solid team that gave many good teams fits, EVEN when Nova shot ONLY 33 percent. Isn’t that the accurate insight, when the talk about narratives is paired away?
The very fact of Nova’s modest 33% shooting you sight refutes your own logic IMHO.
It appears to me that NOVA held such a huge edge in the number of proficient three point shooters and such a huge edge in inter-reinforcing offensive and defensive philosophies, given that edge in three point shooters, that it could find enough shooters that could make enough shots to win shooting only 33%, on another night when a team with only 2-3 trifectates might have fallen to 25%, because there just weren’t any other trifectates to resort to.
I lack hard statistics for the following assertion, so I will couch it anecdotally: in my experience, often when teams that depend heavily on a particular kind of offensive productivity are denied that kind of offensive productivity, they are beaten by better, equal, and not infrequently by lesser teams, especially in the Carney. We see it in the early round upsets. A lesser team shoots lights out and a better team shoots under its average in its preferred scoring mode (i.e., inside, or outside scoring), and that combines with substandard FT performance (or a lack of fouls called generating below average FTAs) to yield an upset.
And, regardless, NOVA being beaten by TTech would hardly have been classified as an upset. TTech was pretty good, despite Self showing everyone how to beat TTech in KU’s rematch with TTech that lead them to be much less successful than they had been earlier in the season after that exposure.
Here is the thing: Nova had sooooo many > 39% trifectates, including two that force opponents to have to pull their bigs at least 23 feet from the basket, that Nova was, game in and game out, able to:
a.) find at least a couple guys that could make a decent percentage from trey (remember 33% is about 50% standardized to 2-point shooting);
b.) shoot a large enough number of treys relative to its opponent to offset its own relative inaccuracy of 33%; and
c.) erode the opponents defensive rebounding (something TTech relied heavily on) by pulling its bigs out of the paint to guard Nova’s bigs threatening to take any open look treys.
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️Ok let me chose a different wording. it seems as though your position is Nova is unbeatable. I pointed out a game they should’ve lost. It seems as though you are saying shoot more threes and you automatically win. I’m saying that isn’t always he case. Like in 08 for KU Nova got lucky and won on a bad shooing night otherwise we are talking up how wonderful Bill Self is and how lucky Nova got to beat KU 2 years prior. (I believe that qualifies as a narrative shift; from Jay is the best to Bill is the best)Maybe you said that but I can’t possibly read all you posted too busy at work. Cliff notes please.
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According to Kenpom, Texas Tech’s adjusted defense was 4th in the country. Texas Tech did to Nova what they did to most everyone - made them a below average offensive team. The difference was that even though Tech limited them on offense, Nova could dig in and get stops, too. Nova was a very balanced team by Kenpom standards - #1 in offense, #11 on defense.
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@justanotherfan Thanks! They didn’t just shoot threes! They are actually good at something else which is one of my points. The other being Nova was beatable, but they got lucky that Tech sucked that game. (I watched they missed a ton of wide open shots).
