Last Five Seasons KU vs the "One-Trick Pony"
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147-37
164-21 (3-0 head to head) 8-3 in “trough”* games this year. 1 title already, maybe another tonight.
*As defined by shooting 33% or worse from three. It’s 12-4 if you expand to 38% or less.
Weird.
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Gosh darn that rascal Jay Wright for finding sub top 75 recruits that can shoot, that are willing to take a red shirt and develop.
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Villanova has been the best team in the last 5 years, period. Anyone that doesn’t think so is showing their lack of knowledge of the game. Whomever is evaluating talent for them is doing a great job (not that KU has been bad, 2 mid major guards did pretty salty), I don’t know which recruits were rated what Saturday on the court but I know the guys in white had more talent and athletic ability but the guys in Blue usually have better recruiting classes. I think it was close in 2016 but they flatout had the better team this year. Really Dook did too, we just had a good game plan that worked.
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@kjayhawks Part of having higher rated classes is getting OADs. Nova guys not only stay, many of them redshirt.
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@BShark Which exactly why I’m not a fan of the OADs. Josh Jackson and Joel Embiid were the only OADs here that I thought actually cared about how we did. People say we are loaded next year, Self has not done good with loaded teams. Several of these guys could be OADs and I’m not counting chickens before they hatch. That’s maybe biggest complaint for HCBS, he overachieved several times including this season but when it looked like we had everything going for us, we choked. 2011 was horrible, we had all the cards and a good road and blew it.
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@kjayhawks There is a lot of luck involved in the tournament. KU won their three games after the first all by 4 points each. Just as easily could have lost any of them with a different call here or there.
The way I see it with OADs it’s fine to have a few here and there. Last year w/o JJ and subtitute in a random 4 yr recruit in their first year and where is that team? Probably much worse.
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Nova has done a great job of identifying talent that fits their needs. I remember seeing an article run after their title win that talked about the in-depth things they look for. The type of character they look for in kids, they vet these guys very well and don’t take chances on guys that don’t fit the criteria.
Compared to KU that’s not always the case here, for every Frank Mason or Devonte Graham we get Billy Preston and Cheick Diallo in the program who came and left without leaving a single positive impact on the team.
I think we’ve talked about this here and there that KU should get back to an established criteria for kids they want. I think Garrett, Grimes, Dotson, De Sousa, McCormack and Ogbaji have all been a step in the right direction with that. We’ve even heard rumblings from those around the program that Self and his Staff have changed it up. If there is a character flaw in any of these kids we’ve yet to see it. No loose ends, no Pre-Madonna’s that won’t come in and work. The culture is different at KU then at Villanova so I’m not trying to say KU needs to be like Nova but there’s certainly positive things KU can take from their model that they can apply.
Nova also has gotten pretty lucky.
Booth missed a year with injury and Bridges red-shirted behind other wings already in the rotation. Bridges goes from Top 80ish kid to potential lottery selection. That’s part player and coaching success. Booth I believe has another year if he wants it which is crazy.
DiVincenzo was another player stuck behind others so he took a shirt and being a +100 recruit you just never know what they will become.
Spellman shirted due to academics so they have 4 guys who took a shirt that they got lucky with this season. If they had Booth & Spellman last season, doubt they lose in the 2nd round.
Brunson was a recruit everyone wanted, the Burger Boy with the old man game taught by a former NBA player. Those kids are not grown on trees unfortunately.
For all their success developing guys Delaney & Painter have done nothing.
Then theirs Paschall who KU wanted when he transferred. Had the game of his life against us (of course).
Their 2017 class looks like another gem. Samuels who turned down Duke was hurt most of the year. They get solid rotation minutes from Roundtree & Gillespie. Their 2018 class could be their best yet… Success for sure
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No OADs in the FF this year…
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You go after the most talented guys that fit your system to give you a shot every year. It’s difficult with all 4 year guys to be good for more than a 1-2 year stretch. So your championship window is 2-4 times every 10 years instead of every year. You may have a better chance in those years, but bad luck can end any season. Personally I want to be I it every year (playing the numbers game).
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@BeddieKU23 Just my opinion but I wouldn’t put Cheick Diallo in the same category as Billy Preston.
Preston’s contributions were limited to practice.
Diallo played in games and contributed, although we might have wanted more. AFAIK, he did nothing to tarnish KU’s rep and is playing in the NBA.
Not sure who to group with Preston, but here are some candidates for disappointments:
- Carlton Bragg
- Cliff Alexander
- Naadir Tharpe
- Rio Adams
- Merv Lindsay
- Josh Selby
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Nova’s biggest edges in the Carney are:
Easy seeding;
Refs;
Taking 10-15 more 3ptas than opponent; and
Bigs that can guard the trey stripe so the opponent gets fewer uncontested 3ptas.
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dylans said:
You go after the most talented guys that fit your system to give you a shot every year. It’s difficult with all 4 year guys to be good for more than a 1-2 year stretch. So your championship window is 2-4 times every 10 years instead of every year. You may have a better chance in those years, but bad luck can end any season. Personally I want to be I it every year (playing the numbers game).
Well said.
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The refs do not favor Villanova good lord.
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Diallo & Preston are examples of what Villanova avoids when building a roster. They have stability and it works for them and it could work for KU as well. They don’t take gambles on kids that represent the less then 1% of athletes that have issues getting qualified and staying qualified. KU gambles and we’ve had some epic collapses doing so.
Garrett & the 2018 class looks promising for getting high character kids that can impact the program for years to come. I hope we continue to stick to this path .
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Team occasionally catch what I call the “perfect storm” of recruiting when they get several unheralded players that end up planting well above their rankings and are capable of making a program extremely competitive for a few years by staying the full 4 years or even 5 by red shirting.
Villanova is currently going through that with an extremely competent group of players and they have at least one more year depending on who leaves, who stays and who they recruit. Wichita State had a similar period in the the last few years with players such as VanVleet, Early, Baker, Shammet and others that made the program extremely successful for a few years but looks like it might be coming to and end now.
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Brunson & Bridges are gone. Both are graduating this spring.
Spellman & DiVincenzo likely will test the waters after their tourney run. Nova really needs them both to return badly.
Booth & Paschall have another year. Recruiting class is their best on paper- 3 Top 50 recruits including Burger Boy Quinerly. Their freshman class from this year all played besides Samuels (A Top 50 recruit himself) who was hurt most of the season.
I had mentioned that last year they lost in the 2nd round without Booth & Spellmen. Return everyone and those two play and they win a title. Definitely a perfect storm
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@BeddieKU23 Usually the problems come when KU misses on top targets. Though Diallo was heavily recruited all year and then Self wouldn’t even play him. A total waste.
I would be stunned if DiVincenzo left early. Villanova will be good next year again. Though assuming Bridges and Brunson leave I think Spellman’s decision plays a huge part of if they are a title contender or something like a 4-5 seed.
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Nova took the guesswork out of this year’s tournament. They thrashed every opponent with double-digit wins in March/April.
One key factor: “margin for losing” was essentially eliminated by their focus and effort in every single tournament game.
Got to hand it to Wright… whatever he is doing is working. I expect more coaches to look closer at his approach to the game, because his approach works. His players are totally bought-in. They have excellent basketball IQ and they hustle every minute on the floor. Last, they execute.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Usually the problems come when KU misses on top targets. Though Diallo was heavily recruited all year and then Self wouldn’t even play him. A total waste.
I would be stunned if DiVincenzo left early. Villanova will be good next year again. Though assuming Bridges and Brunson leave I think Spellman’s decision plays a huge part of if they are a title contender or something like a 4-5 seed.
Very good point. I’ll add to that because its important. Imagine if Self and Co were still looking for a post player in this class, aimlessly chasing the Jordan Brown, Moses Brown etc types.
Instead we identified a target early that had talent and room to grow (McCormack). That to me marked a shift because not even a year before that we put so many eggs into Ayton then Preston and got nothin’. Not only that I think we’ve already identified some traits that make Dave a good fit at KU. Dotson & Grimes were home-runs at guards. Silvio coming in early and producing was even more evidence of shifting to players that fit KU instead of getting talent that you hope fits for a year.
If your DiVincenzo you have to test right? Your iron can’t get any hotter then it is. Spellmen is a fit in the modern NBA so I imagine he’s got to be thinking about testing. Both are old for their class as well. If they leave wow that’s a big tumble for them but if they return they get another year where they need 1-2 guys to step up to stay right at the top
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@BeddieKU23 Yeah I mentioned that when he committed. I think more than once. Basically, the staff took Tyler Davis instead of Cheick Diallo this time. You could say they learned their lesson.
It depends on DiVincenzo’s goals. I’ll admit I have no idea. Spellman should absolutely go pro.
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Some time you have to strike while the iron is hot and it does not get any hotter for Villanova players than it is right now. Day Tripper could have gone to the draft after his freshman year when he was hot after the Tournament and he would have been a sure mid 1st round pick but he stayed and 3 years later he is a late first round pick at best and could slip to the second round.
