Draft Declarations Thread
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In the last 15 years UConn has 3 titles, UNC has 3 titles, Duke has 2 titles, one gifted to them by the refs and KU and KU have 1 tiltle each.
Considering the huge talent gap between UK and Duke versus the rest of the field, both programs have underachieved big time.
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Winning the national championship is legitimately difficult.
It takes a perfect blend of players, combined with the right amount of luck and talent to get it all done.
Even during this OAD era, there have never been more than four teams with enough overall OAD talent to even be considered a national title contender in a given year. Given that, having two OAD national champions is pretty good when you would guess that there are probably six or seven total teams with legitimate national title aspirations each year.
Up until Calipari arrived at UK, there really weren’t many OAD dominated teams. I don’t count Derrick Rose at Memphis because he was the lone OAD on that team, or Durant at Texas (or Beasley at KSU) because again, they didn’t really have that many actual OADs around them. If you want, you can count Ohio State in 2007 with Greg Oden, Mike Conley and Daequan Cook. However, most only projected Oden as an OAD, with Conley and Cook expected to stay multiple years.
If we count Ohio State 2007, here are the OAD dominated teams in the OAD era:
Ohio State 2007 (Conley ranks too low in most recruiting sites to make this team qualify), UNC 2007, Kentucky 2010, Kentucky 2012, Kentucky 2013, Kentucky 2014, Kansas 2014, Duke 2015, Kentucky 2015, Duke 2017, Kentucky 2017, Duke 2018, Kentucky 2018. To be considered OAD dominated, you have to have at least three players ranked in the top 15, or four freshman ranked in the top 20 in the class. That eliminates teams with one high ranked recruit surrounded by a bunch of other top 100 players (LSU with Ben Simmons, Mizzou last year, Beasley at KSU, Durant at Texas, etc.).
Kentucky 2012 and Duke 2015 won titles. Kentucky 2014 and Ohio State 2007 were national runners up. Kentucky 2015 went to the Final Four. UNC 2007, Kentucky 2010 and Duke 2018 went to the Elite Eight. Kentucky 2018 went to the Sweet 16. Kansas 2014 and Duke 2017 lost in the Round of 32. Kentucky 2013 missed the tournament.
What’s really fascinating about these squads is that Kentucky 2013 was by far the weakest of the group. Poythress and Goodwin were ranked 13 and 15 in their class. Noel got hurt. If you take away Noel, that team doesn’t qualify. Same story with Kansas 2014. Take away Embiid and it’s just Wiggins and Selden. That means they aren’t really an OAD dominated team. Duke 2017 had Giles and Bolden both miss big chunks of the season with injury or illness. Take away those two and again, that’s not an OAD team.
Obviously, that doesn’t take away the fact that those teams underachieved, but when you count it up, there have really only been about a dozen true OAD teams. Most years, it’s one or maybe two freshmen on a squad together without a lot of other help. If you don’t have three starter quality freshmen, it’s hard to say you’re an OAD team.
It appears from this that if you can land three or more top 15 recruits and keep them all healthy, your chances of making a deep tournament run are almost assured.
Edit: The only OAD squad for 2019 is Duke (for now). Kentucky only has three top 20 recruits, and only one top 15 recruit. KU may have two top 15 recruits, but they don’t have any other top 20 guys. Oregon only has two top 15 recruits. If Langford goes to Vandy, they actually become an OAD squad (Garland and Shittu are both top 15 players) so adding Langford would legitimately change Vandy’s ceiling.
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Hamidou Diallo declares for draft with Agent.
Nojel Eastern of Purdue without Agent.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Nojel Eastern of Purdue without Agent.
2.9 PPG…
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BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Nojel Eastern of Purdue without Agent.
2.9 PPG…
I was surprised. Eastern will be one of their best players this year. Figuring he’s banking on getting some feedback and building for next year.
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Zhaire Smith stays in the draft. Smart decision. Likely a Top 20 pick
Huge loss for the Big-12 and Texas Tech.
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Omari Spellman declares without an Agent (Smart Move).
Chris Silva of South Carolina, no Agent
Danny Manning loses his starting C, Doral Moore who will stay in the draft. Another huge loss for him.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Zhaire Smith stays in the draft. Smart decision. Likely a Top 20 pick
Huge loss for the Big-12 and Texas Tech.
Figured, but will be interesting to see how Beard does w/o Evans and Smith.
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Danny will be lucky to make it through this season. And I find it hard to disagree. I have yet to see any improvement.
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@Kcmatt7 43% win rate is rough.
Danny has some dudes coming in. I think they actually had to have some guys leave early to make room. Or they knew beforehand hence loading up.
Crawford, Brown, Hoard, Mucius and a warm body at C should be able to make the tournament. Hopefully for him they can do that.
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There’s a ton of pressure on him next year, though. He’s had one winning record in four years at Wake, and that year his winning record was only good enough to make the first four of the NCAA tournament. He hasn’t finished better than 10th in the ACC. He needs to finish in the top half of the league and make the tournament to save his job. Going 9-9 in the league probably won’t be enough to keep his job at this point.
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@BShark Mucus is nothing to sneeze at. I heard he’s a pretty liquid player, but a little green around the edges.
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BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Zhaire Smith stays in the draft. Smart decision. Likely a Top 20 pick
Huge loss for the Big-12 and Texas Tech.
Figured, but will be interesting to see how Beard does w/o Evans and Smith.
He’s got Moore and DeShawn Corprew (one time plan B for Josh Jackson) coming in, so that’ll help. But definitely not as talented.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Zhaire Smith stays in the draft. Smart decision. Likely a Top 20 pick
Huge loss for the Big-12 and Texas Tech.
Yes a huge loss…but he was a pain in the neck…a little relieved that I won’t have to watch him make some highlight plays against us.
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Read Gabriel out of Kentucky declared but not hiring Agent - I think he comes back, but if he doesn’t they have lost a lot. - from reading boards this is one I don’t think this is one they were counting on. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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jayballer73 said:
Read Gabriel out of Kentucky declared but not hiring Agent - I think he comes back, but if he doesn’t they have lost a lot. - from reading boards this is one I don’t think this is one they were counting on. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
He’s probably going to stay gone. Only so many guys can get minutes and the squid loaded up!
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I would be shocked to see him come back.
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Kcmatt7 said:
I would be shocked to see him come back.
You called all this.
Kentucky fans being shocked when kids leave their OAD factory early is still the funniest damn thing.
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@BShark His post basically said he was gone.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@BShark His post basically said he was gone.
Oh okay I didn’t check. That means if PJ stays in the draft too they have 8 scholarship players. This also assumes Green doesn’t leave. 9 w/ Hagans.
Poor Cal just can’t catch a break!
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At least that was how I read it.
Lol I would laugh if PJ left. There fans are saying take grad transfers, but who would want to come play at UK there last year and watch a bunch of freshmen lose 11 games? Sounds miserable.
Poor poor Cal. Hope he lands Maxey and Green bounces. I honestly think Lexington will go to war lol.
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Matt tait is saying doke to announce tomm or so. Hearing declare without agent…
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BeddieKU23 said:
Hearing declare without agent…
Always the plan.
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I think he’ll be back. He won’t get a combine invite so someone is going to have to take a flier
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I feel like he will get invited. He has to be one of the 60 most intriguing prospects right?
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There are just so many guys when you factor in the International players as well. I just don’t think he will get a invite this year. 60 sounds like a lot, but it really isn’t when you factor in all of the draft eligible players.
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He could easily come back but I don’t think it’s a question of NBA or not. There are many other good pro basketball leagues that pay well.
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Someone do me a favor, ( assuming Silvio stays and is cleared & Doke stays ) what does our post rotation look like next season?
I realize that’s a lot of IFs.
Personally I hope Silvio gets cleared and can play ball for us. I kind of believe his caretaker, whoever, that they didn’t take any money from that Adidas agent guy.
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I just find it hard to believe a legit footer with his athleticism wouldn’t get invited. I mean at least take a look and see if he is such a freak he may actually be worth the investment.
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@Lulufulu There is a ton of depth. Dedric will start at the 4 and Doke at the 5. Then bigs coming off the bench you have DeSosa, Big Dave, KJ Lawson, and Mitch.
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It would be a challenge for Bill to keep everyone happy. Mitch in that situation might consider a RS.
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With Doke and Silvio AND another Wing I see it as:
- Dedric - KJ
- Doke - Silvio
With Doke and Silvio and No Wing I see it as:
- Dedric - KJ - Silvio - Mitch
- Doke - Silvio - Big Dave
Without Doke I see it as:
- KJ - Silvio - Mitch
- Dedric - Silvio - Big Dave
Without Silvio I see it as:
- Dedric - KJ - Mitch
- Doke - Big Dave
Without either I see it as:
- KJ - Mitch - Garrett
- Dedric - Big Dave
I am not worried about the post rotation. Worse case scenario, we lose both and we start 5 guys who can all shoot the 3.
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Lulufulu said:
Someone do me a favor, ( assuming Silvio stays and is cleared & Doke stays ) what does our post rotation look like next season?
I realize that’s a lot of IFs.
Personally I hope Silvio gets cleared and can play ball for us. I kind of believe his caretaker, whoever, that they didn’t take any money from that Adidas agent guy.Sure. Dedric and Doke start. Dedric will play 30+ and Doke hopefully 25ish. Silvio will be the first off the bench and can play the 4 or 5. KJ can play some 4 as well depending on the matchup. Dave will be the 4th or 5th big. He and Mitch will play sparingly. I agree with @BShark in that Mitch may consider taking a RS. Being 4th on the depth chart at your position isn’t a recipe for PT.
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@BShark I personally really hope that Mitch does RS. I don’t think he will play much at all next year and he could develop into something a couple years down the road.
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@Woodrow We deserve a really annoying white guy who is good for no physical reason other than he just plays harder. Like where is our Singler, Kelly, Hansbrough?
Mitch could become the most hated player in basketball!
But I do agree, it probably requires a redshirt to accomplish that. He might as well get a free 5th year paid for right?
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@Kcmatt7 Dave isn’t shooting any threes imo.
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Woodrow said:
@BShark I personally really hope that Mitch does RS. I don’t think he will play much at all next year and he could develop into something a couple years down the road.
I think it should only be in play if Doke and Silvio are around though. If not, I think Mitch would be a valuable contributor.
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@BShark I’d just say screw it and start Dedric at the 5 and KJ at the 4 if we lost both.
Dedric has an 8’11 standing reach. He could literally guard anyone.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@BShark I’d just say screw it and start Dedric at the 5 and KJ at the 4 if we lost both.
Dedric has an 8’11 standing reach. He could literally guard anyone.
The only situation where I wouldn’t start Dedric and KJ is if Doke is back.
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@BShark I would be fine with that.
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@Kcmatt7 Yeah I mean KJ will be in his 4th year out of HS, that will definitely be a factor. Plus he is pretty good in general. Versatile defender, very good rebounder.
Even if Silvio is able to play which I doubt he would be better coming off the bench imo.
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Lulufulu said:
Someone do me a favor, ( assuming Silvio stays and is cleared & Doke stays ) what does our post rotation look like next season?
I realize that’s a lot of IFs.
Personally I hope Silvio gets cleared and can play ball for us. I kind of believe his caretaker, whoever, that they didn’t take any money from that Adidas agent guy.Like you said - - IF- I’ve talked to several friends - so many combinations if it all works out. - You could see Doke starting at the 5 with McCormack backing him - -And Silvio backing Dedric at the 4 - - plus Silvio playing some 5. - - If we get Romeo - -we could see Romeo at the 3 with KJ backing him. -Or possibly if Mitch for some reason wouldn’t red shirt - You could see Doke & McCormack- - - and then Mitch possibly backing them at the 5–plus backing Dedric and Silvio at the 4 - -Play Romeo and KJ at the 3 -All kinds of possibilities. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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What is the scoop on Doke?
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@Blown Matt Tait said late this afternoon that Doke would be making a decision quite possibly as early as tomorrow, and said nothing has changed feels like Doke will test the waters without an agent. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Blown said:
What is the scoop on Doke?
Chances are he’s back unless he gets a guarantee to get drafted and a good shot at making a NBA roster.
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Brian Bowen declares for the draft but wants to play at South Carolina. These two things don’t match.
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Graham, a 6-foot-2 point guard from Raleigh, N.C., on Wednesday signed with CAA (Creative Arts Agency), which has U.S. offices in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, New York, Moorestown, N.J., and Jacksonville Beach, Fla.
Former KU standout Joel Embiid is represented by CAA, as well as Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Paul George, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Tony Parker and others.
Mykhailiuk re-tweeted a Twitter posting by SIG (Sports International Group), which revealed it had reached agreement with the 6-foot-8 forward from Ukraine.
SIG clients include former KU forward Tarik Black, plus Lauri Markkanen, Alex Len and others.
Meanwhile, former KU guard Malik Newman will announce his choice of an agent on Friday, his dad, Horatio Webster, said on Wednesday.
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This is going to be attractive to Doke no matter what. I still believe he’s leaving
The G league announced on Tuesday that it was raising its base salary per player for the 2018-19 season to $7,000 per month for the five-month season, which works out to $35,000 salary for any given player.
Two-way contracts from the G League and the NBA, which sets their salary at $77,250 are up from this years rate as well
In addition to their salaries, players under NBA G League contracts will continue to have the opportunity to earn additional money through affiliate player bonuses and NBA Call-Ups. This season, about one quarter of players under NBA G League contracts also earned an average of $44,000 in NBA affiliate player bonuses – a total of more than $3 million on top of their NBA G League salaries. A record 50 NBA G League players earned a record 60 GATORADE Call-Ups to the NBA this season, generating earnings of more than $11 million, or approximately $225,000 per player.
The NBA G League also pays bonuses to players on NBA G League playoff teams and to those recognized as end-of-season performance award winners. The league awarded more than $225,000 in bonus money this season.
Further, in accordance with the NBA and National Basketball Players Association collective bargaining agreement, NBA players will continue to be able to enter into two-way contracts. NBA two-way players will earn $77,250, prorated for days spent on an NBA G League roster, and the NBA rookie minimum salary, prorated for the days with their NBA team, for maximum potential earnings of $385,000 next season. This season, 83 players across all 30 NBA teams signed two-way contracts.
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@BeddieKU23 I still say Doke leaving makes the most sense in being able to get Silvio and Dave.
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In the back of my mind I have always kind of thought that during the whole recruiting process that some how the Coach’s their selling point to De Sousa & McCormick was that they thought Doke would be gone. I just get this feel that getting Silvio & McCormick both to come they really would want to both be here knowing that Doke comes back. -I - really feel that they had been told chances are that he was gone.
