Conference Play Discussion
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Figured it was time to get a discussion going on Conference Play. Every year we have this lull in action before Big-12 play starts and it gets the mind thinking as the holidays come and go. It's been 7 days since the last game and still another 5 to go. Way too long a wait.
Time to look ahead to the 18 game gauntlet that is the Big-12.
KU has home/home series with Arizona, Iowa St & K-St this year. Unfortunately, two of the 3 teams are currently ranked in the Top 3 in the country. The other being our hated step-child rivals. Gone are the days of playing each team home and away with the conference expansion.
January:
January is the "easier month" of the conference schedule as its backloaded for TV and what-not. Just two ranked opponents on the schedule and both at home, which is good. It's a mix of 4 and 4 (home and away). All four road games are against winnable opponents at least in thought.
Starting it off is UCF on the road. UCF is typically a tough place to play, we've seen that before in the first year we went there when they joined the conference. Last year's trip was one of KU's cheat code games where they won by 50,000 points in one of their only "great" games of the year.
This year's UCF squad comes in at 11-1 with P4 wins against Pitt and Texas A&M with their lone loss to Vanderbilt. They haven't been tested much so far. They like to score, their offense is over 20 spots better on KenPom then KU's currently, so this is a good test for our road defense. This UCF squad doesn't have any stars (last year they had Keyshawn Hall & Darius Johnson) who lit it up offensively & they were athletic bunch. This year is more balanced scoring with a bunch of transfers. Riley Kugel (former KU signee last year in the portal who never made it) is still around & is having a career year FYI.They are shooting nearly 50% from the field, 74% at the line and nearly 40% from 3 so far. KenPom ranks them 93rd defensively so that's their weakness. They don't block a lot of shots but do rebound well leading the conference so far in Offensive Rebounds. Personally, I think their #'s come down to earth as they play better teams then they faced in non-con play.
Can KU win this game? Absolutely. Can they win this without Peterson? Sure, but won't be easy. Any road game where KU plays without Peterson is going to be 50/50 at best.
Home opener vs TCU. On paper TCU does not have a sexy roster at all so the 9-3 start is a bit surprising given who they faced and how they competed against good teams. They held Michigan to 67 points in a 4 pt loss, they beat Florida & Wisconsin on neutral courts and dropped a 2 pt game to Notre Dame. KenPom ranks their D as 23rd so that is what seems to be keeping them in games so far. 8 guys with balanced scoring from 5-13 ppg. They are not a good shooting team though which is their main weakness so far.
With/Without Peterson there is no excuse for anything but a W here.
@ West Virginia
Certainly, a place that's had our number over the years. There's no other way to put it, officiating flat out sucks in this gym and we often make life difficult for ourselves to overcome the 8 on 5 disadvantage. This isn't a great WV team KenPom #68 overall but is 40th currently on defense. Honor Huff is their star player transferring in having made 53 3's already on the season. No joke the kid has 62 made baskets on the year and 53 are from 3 so the game plan is clear when it comes to Huff. Transfer Portal friend Treysen Eaglestaff is on this squad FYI averaging 9ppg.
With/Without Peterson this is a winnable game. West Virgina has only 1 P4 win and has lost to average teams such as Clemson, Xavier, Ohio St & Wake Forest.
Home vs Iowa St.
A marquee conference game on a Tuesday Night at 9pm in Allen Fieldhouse. The first of two matchups on the season sees Iowa St come to town first. Iowa St has been flat out filthy so far this year racing to a 12-0 record and #3 ranking in the polls. The dismantling of Purdue on their home court was impressive stuff. They also have wins against St Johns, Syracuse & Creighton & Miss St. Besides the St Johns game, everything has been a blowout or comfortable win. Every time I have watched Iowa St this year I have been scared about facing them.
Joshua Jefferson might be the best player in the league averaging 17, 7 and 5 assists so far. He's the definition of a Point Forward and a matchup problem. Momcilovic is their leading scorer due to 55% shooting from 3 on 48 makes already. He doesn't miss and at 6'8 is a matchup problem. The player that has surprised me the most is Freshman Killyan Toure, a freshman guard from France has not played like a freshman at all and is a key player for them outside the two already mentioned. Then they have the Sr savvy guard Tamin Lipsey still hanging around averaging career best scoring and assists.
Since it's at home there's always a chance the Fieldhouse makes a difference in this one but make no mistake with or without Peterson this Iowa St team has played at a different level then KU has so far. With Peterson they have a shot, without I'd put the chances of winning very low.
Home vs Baylor
3 days after a marquee home game, Baylor comes to town for a Friday Night game on Fox. Baylor has a road game on Tuesday, so they have the same 48 hours rest we do but with the road game thrown in there to make it more difficult. I think this is a fortunate schedule setup here.
The matchup is interesting. Baylor has 2 legit NBA talents in Cameron Carr and freshman Tounde Yessoufou averaging 21 and 18 respectively between the two. Carr has blown up in his Soph year after the transfer from Tennessee. He is their typical guard that is a matchup nightmare and can get 20+ on any given night. This kid averaged 4ppg at Tennessee last year for reference. KenPom says Baylor is a Top 10 offense but 104th defensively so Scott Drew himself a ying/yang type team. Baylor will be intersesting to watch as they exploit the NCAA rulebook by adding former 2023 first round pick James Nnaji to their squad mid-season. Yeah, make any of this make sense.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/baylor-former-nba-draft-pick-james-nnaji/
Given Baylor's offensive firepower so far, won't be an easy game but can hope the 48-hour turnaround for Baylor on back to back road games is enough to give us the advantage. I do think this is a game that we absolutely need Peterson offensively for as they avg 18 ppg more then KU does currently.
@ Colorado
The buffs have dropped two straight including a loss to Northern Colorado last time out at home. The first of two straight road games for KU, this one is winnable. Their leading scorer so far is a freshman guard names Isaiah Johnson who was the #189 ranked player in the 2025 class. KenPom has them ranked #84 overall so a loss here wouldn't be great. A winnable game without Peterson if he's still in street clothes by this one.
@ K-St
I see this game was given a primetime Fox slot at 8pm. K-St comes in at 9-4 with wins against Miss St & Creighton and 4 losses to Nebraska, Bowling Green, Indiana & Seton Hall. This K-St team can't guard a paper bag, but they can score, a lot, mostly against bad teams though. This is the year to stop the losing streak at that terrible gym with the most pathetic fans but that's enough slander for now. KenPom has them #72 overall which is fitting to what I've seen from them a few times. PJ Haggerty is a bucket as he's been his entire career at Tulsa, Memphis and now K-St. 3 straight seasons averaging 20 + is something you don't see often anymore. He's just a bucket getter for sure and surprisingly efficient one as well.
The guy that's taken a major leap is David Castillo. For those who remember him, KU recruited him a good bit, believe we were in his final list but KU wasn't a serious option for him when selecting a school from what I remember. I do hope KU has kept tabs on him for the future because he's got All-Conference potential next season the way he's played. There's some Frank Mason to his game & he's been impressive so far this year. I'm not sure if we'd take a K-St guy but if we did this is the one to monitor for the spring.
Also of note is Abdul Bashir, a transfer target this past offseason shooting 48% from 3 on 49 makes. A lot like Honor Huff, Bashir does nothing else well but shoot the 3 (49 of 56) made baskets from 3 so far. Insane really to see these disparities.As all rivalry games go, this won't be easy especially if K-St guards play well as their top 4 scorers all on the perimeter. They have one competent big in Khamari McGriff who's been a stretch 5 for them but is a foul magnet (3 per game). Their depth outside the Top 5 is very suspect, especially in the post.
Home vs BYU
After two road games, KU gets 7 days to prepare for BYU to come to town. I still remember the last time BYU came here and won in what was a very disappointing game. I remember being on vacation in Florida and interrupting my down time to watch that debacle and wishing I hadn't. Last year's road trip to BYU was even more of a disaster as Self lost the team after losing to Utah first and the team quitting in the BYU game. This year's BYU team is really good led by star freshman AJ Dybansta who's done nothing but enhance his reputation so far in College. He's a potential star NBA player and watching him you can see why. Remember this is the guy Peterson passed to become the #1 player in the 2025 class after Dybansta held it for a long time. Currently, the eval people might have gotten this one wrong based on what we've seen in the season so far. One has played and is the 2nd leading scorer in all of D1, the other hasn't played a full game yet but might sometime.. Nobody knows. As far as "star matchup", if Peterson does play in this one it would be fun to see as Peterson has his number when they played each other several times in HS ball.
Robert Wright was a star freshman at Baylor and is a star Soph at BYU now. That guy was kryptonite for KU last year with a season high 24 points in their victory of us last year. He's one of my favorite non-KU players in basketball. Richie Saunders returned another year after a stellar Jr campaign for BYU and would be any teams star outside of his current one with Dybansta. BYU is top heavy for sure with 3 studs but that's all you really need at the College level. I think the one criticism you could point with this team is they played a relatively weak non-conference. Dropped a 2 pt game to UConn but otherwise beat Wisconsin handily, Miami, Dayton, & Clemson as well. Big-12 ball will test how good they really are.
With 7 days to prepare at home, KU should be well rested and prepared for what BYU does. It's just matchup wise their top 3 scorers are going to be really difficult to stop. This is a game you really need a healthy Peterson for.
February:
February is murderer's row. 5 of the 8 games against current ranked teams including #1 Arizona twice in 19 days.
Starting @ Texas Tech.
Another place that we often receive excellent officiating at. Their crowd support at home is also stellar which makes an impact on things. Toppin and Anderson are two studs and matchup nightmares to defend inside/out. This years squad doesn't seem to have the same chemistry and talent level that they had last year last year but returning your two best players gives them a fighting shot any night of the week. This is also the first Big Monday for KU. Until Tech beat Duke with a late comeback you could say this is a good team but hadn't beaten anyone. Close losses to Illinois & Arkansas and a lopsided defeat against Purdue. They have P4 wins against Wake Forest and LSU otherwise. Tech is ranked #21 on KenPom so this will be a very difficult game on the road. This is only the start of a very difficult February.
Home vs Utah
Easiest game of the year on paper. Kenpom #123 ranked team. Only 4 P4 teams ranked lower then them currently. They have been competitive in their only P4 games against Cal/Miss St but no wins. Also lost to Cal Poly and Grand Canyon. A couple mid-major guards leading them in scoring so far.
Home vs Arizona
The #1 team comes to Allen Fieldhouse. Last year's KU team fumbled it's way to a win against them & 4 guys return from that squad who played in AF. Fortunately for them, Zona has two stud freshman and NBA dudes in Koa Peat and Brayden Burries. Peat had the star game against Florida in their opener and has a been a steady force since. Burries is really coming on and now leads them in scoring. Hit for over 20 + in 3 of his last 4 games. Bradley, Dell'Orso, Krivas & Awaka give them excellent experience. They have two other freshman making impacts in German Ivan Kharchenkov and Dwayne Aristode. They certainly blend young with experience and so far they have been a very good team.
Another game where you need Peterson to really have a shot at winning.
@ Iowa St.
If a home game against the #1 team wasn't enough, 5 days later we go to Ames and Hilton Magic to play the #3 ranked team in Iowa St in the return trip. Hopefully after KU wins the first one, they go to complete the sweep. A sweep in this series would be nothing short of amazing, but highly improbable based on level of play from both squads. We'll need all the help we can get there.
@ Ok St
The place where Self has struggled the most to win, Stillwater. We didn't go there last season, the previous season was an unexpected dominate victory by 24. Perhaps we are turning the corner there? We shall see in mid-February and 5 days rest coming in. This Ok St team is led by a new regime and off to an 11-1 start. KenPom ranked #61. Top 7 guys are all transfers. They like to play with tempo and shoot a lot of 3's is what I've seen on TV and on paper so far.
Home vs Cincinnati
Currently sitting at 7-5 has dropped 4 games to P4 foes but also a game against Eastern Michigan. KenPom ranked #10 team on defense seems to be the thing keeping them above 500 right now. Another highly winnable home game here.
Home vs Houston
Houston comes to town on Big Monday for the only matchup of the year. Thankfully, as we've played stellar when going to their gym (NOT) so at least this one we have a chance. The record will change but I just read Houston has won 38 of their last 41 Big-12 games. I wonder if KU ever had such a dominant stretch, I'm sure we had something similar but that's some kind of record since joining the league 2 years ago. I've watched a lot of Houston this year and they are just super annoying. Sharp shoots from anywhere across half court and doesn't need a green light. Flemmings is a superb freshman guard, one of the best I've seen in years in this league but imagine he'll be gone after this season. Cenac is another impactful highly rated freshman. Uzan gives them that steady hand at PG. Houston for the most part has played 10 guys. It's a much younger team then Sampson has had in the past where he just seemed to regurgitate 5th and 6th year seniors all the time. Tugler is still a handful in the post defensively and has shown improved offense at times. They are not the rebounding or defensive juggernauts they have been in recent years but still Top 10 on D per KenPom.
With Peterson we certainly have a shot. I'm interested to see if their dominance continues with a bunch of freshman being counted on to produce unlike past years.
@ Arizona
The Big-12 and ESPN certainly know how to schedule. 5 days after Big Monday against Houston goes all the way west for a dreaded 2 game road trip in Arizona. First up is the Wildcats in the return game from 19 days prior. Will be a very difficult matchup that may have conference title implications by the time we get there, you never know for either team. Will be interesting to see how they play in a new venue that I'm not even sure Self has experience playing in.
@ Arizona St
The lone matchup with the other Arizona squad. Last time we went there I remember Bill Walton going on epic rants about the Pac-12 being the greatest conference since sliced bread and watching KU flounder to a loss against an overmatched team at the time. That could have been 3 years ago maybe? Anywho's they have had a decent non-conference with wins against Texas & Oklahoma sandwiched around losses to Gonzaga, USC, UCLA & Oregon St. Another team with heavy transfers dominating their roster.
Home vs K-St
The kitties come to town for the last game of the conference. Hopefully there's something for KU to play for here in the return game besides just beating the crap out our rival. Pretty sure KU has some crazy streak going on Sr night and hopefully it will continue on after this one.
That's a wrap on what became a lot longer walk through of conference play. Gonna be interesting to see.
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Nice job!
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Thank you for all your hard work. Now that our team has shown us their hearts our top five defense will hold teams below their average and our offense has averaged 80 in our mini win streak. If a team like St Johns can play with ISU so can we. I'm saying all this sans Darryn who is just stunning I mean come on man. Get cheap with Tre, Flory, Melvin (see the end of the MU game), and you will get it back plus some and any one of these guys have and can take over a game. I saw Tiller get rugged himself he doesn't like you trying to push him around and he is scary athletic and talented. He is going to go so off watch for the bomb. Self has told him to keep shooting the corner three he is not scared of anyone. Jamari who ends up guarding a big in the paint when we play small and gets just slung around and he gets up and sprints to his place. He is a surprise on both ends but after thirteen games it not a surprise anymore. Kohl lives in Kohland and doesn't give a darn who he runs into. He just keeps on going for it on the lobs (really dude?) and has no filter when he is open. I'd throw Samis onto those tall forwards when needed. He is about to bubble open. He will be good and needs to be this year and not next year.
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I think it's imperative for KU to have a strong January if they want to have a chance at a conference championship this year. The way the schedule is setup, your two toughest games are at home (Iowa St, BYU) and you have manageable road games (UCF #45 KenPom, West Virginia #65, Colorado #85, K-St #74).
8-0 would be gravy train, 7-1 would be excellent, 6-2 would still be okay as far as Conf implications go but context of results would matter. Anything more than 2 losses and we can regroup on expectations imo. The unknown of whether Peterson will play in all or any or some of these games coming up muddies any real projections. There's a clear ceiling to this team without him on the floor. White, Council & Flory can keep them in games but it's the bench play that will either limit team success or be a catalyst in conference play if Peterson isn't available.
I took a look at all the main contenders in the league's schedules. Houston has the easiest path to the title on paper. KU, Iowa St, Zona & Tech have backloaded schedules in Mid-Feb to end of conf play. BYU has a tougher January then most but got a break in last 4 games of the schedule. February is going to be cinema in the Big-12 this year with how those schedules load up back-to-back big games for most of the top teams.
Schedule Rant: KU has a road game in Colorado on a Tuesday that starts at 11pm. Believe the same thing occurred last year and made it impossible for most on the East Coast to watch, including myself. That is total BS again.
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My study of the conferences is done by looking at ESPN on my computer (easier to do on computer) and click on "Standings". It shows every conference and their records. It also has each teams records against ranked teams. So I start counting ranked wins.
Big12 has 13 ranked wins collectively, with Arizona leading the nation with 5. We've only got 1 while losing 3 against ranked teams, but of course the DP absence factors into that.
The SEC has 9 ranked wins. Vandy is 13-0 but has a super soft schedule.
The Big East only has 5 ranked wins with UCONN securing for of those, so pretty weak otherwise.
ACC has 11 ranked wins, BIG has 15 so I guess they lead in that category, but they all have 2 conference games already so that skews that data a bit.
What's interesting too is that no other conferences have any wins against ranked teams except Gonzaga has 4 ranked wins, but no other team in their conference has done anything. In other words no mid majors or low majors have any big surprises.
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People mocked me when I suggested the Big12 just play conference teams. At the same time the same people complain about uneven schedules in the leagues. I hate the uneven schedules caused by so many teams. How can you call yourself conference champ when you don't have to play at KU, or ISU, or Zona? Back when we were automatically winning these titles every year, we played most team home and home every year. Those championships never felt cheap.
So I'm not backing down on this one! Or at least lets compromise, lets play 26 conference games. Give the auto bid to the regular season champ, forget the conference tourney altogether so you can have your turkey season turkey games and ballroom tournaments still and even a date or two for mid majors like Missouri or Marshall or Monmouth.
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@wissox83 I couldn't agree with you more on part of your post anyways, and that's the part of giving the automatic bid to the regular conference champion.
I've always went with the theory your champion comes from over the body of work a team puts in over the Season--- NOT A WEEKEND. you can't determine a champion in three days.
