Did the UK win put an end to #1 seed worries and getting to KC
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There is plenty of basketball yet to be played of coarse but some were worried we didn’t have shot to get the #1 seed with our SOS which after the UK game has jumped up to 27th and 42nd in non conference. I see SOS going up from here with 2 games left against the current #1 RPI team in Baylor. A win this week against them I think really put us it the drivers seat not only for the B12 but where we will go to play in March.
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I also find it interesting that Kenpom still has UK at #3 and us at #7 after the win and us having better SOS.
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We still have between 11 and 13 games left before the NCAA tournament, that’s a lot of games left. KU has nothing locked up yet in regards to playing in KC. There’s 4 west coast teams along with Baylor still in the mix for a 1 seed. 2 of UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon will most likely get shipped out of the west so they become competition for KU and KC is the next closest region for each of those teams.
KU needs to handle their business in the second half of league play and probably get to 29-30 win before the NCAA tournament to lock up a spot in the KC regional.
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@kjayhawks i wouldnt say End but it surely eases things a bit. I mean we still have to win the regular season conference. No easy task. and win a couple games in the conf tourney
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There’s no way UK gets a #1 seed after last night. Their conference just won’t give them enough push. The UNC win is solid but home losses to UCLA/KU and neutral court Louisville point to a team that is only 1-3 against good teams. The Tennessee loss really hurts them. Dropping games against lower-end SEC opponents is killer.
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Yes, still a long ways to go but this win was huge for our resume. If we end up 16-2 in conference and win the conference tourney, I don’t think there is any reason for us not getting a one seed. Might get away with 15-3 but lets just win 'em all and don’t worry about!
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The results this past week have certainly muddled the race for #1 seeds. By far the 2 most significant games in that regard were KU - UK and today’s UVA - Villanova games, because those offered the last chance for (very) high quality non-conf wins.
The teams clearly in the driver’s seat for #1 seeds right now are Gonzaga, Villanova and either KU or Baylor - maybe both. Notwithstanding the overall weakness of the WCC, unless Gonzaga loses at both BYU and SMU this week and again in their conference tourney, they are fairly well locked in - in large measure due to several good to very good non-conf wins, including Arizona and Florida. Villanova came pretty close to locking in a #1 with their come-back win today against UVA - absent a late season swoon in the Big East. The winner of the B12, whether us or Baylor, is fairly well locked into a #1 seed. And, if we split games and neither suffer bad losses, then the second place finisher could well get the fourth #1 seed. If we tie and don’t sweep, then Baylor would probably have the leg up on us due to an overall stronger non-conf schedule.
Really, there are and will be no other teams that have a typical #1 resume. UNC already has 4 losses and it’s only decent non-conf win was Wisconsin. Even if it runs the table, UK doesn’t have much to hang it’s hat on - only non-conf win of note was UNC, it has 2 homes losses and a bad conference loss already. It’s very difficult to envision Arizona, Oregon, or UCLA passing Gonzaga for the west coast #1 - all will have more losses and neither Arizona nor Oregon have any non-conf wins of consequence. UCLA does have UK, but nothing else.
If they end up winning the ACC, Louisville might have a strong case, even with a fairly high number of losses - they have already beaten UK, Duke, Purdue, IU and WSU and have a chance for 3-4 more good conference wins. A surprisingly strong resume is actually Butler, with wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, IU, Utah and Villanova in conference.
Bottom line is if we take care of business, we will play in KC…
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@DCHawker yeah, UNC and UCLA have not done themselves any favors the last couple weeks for seeding. UNC could wind up with five or six losses before the tourney and at best get a two seed. I personally don’t see Gonzaga losing before the tourney and Villanova has a similar chance. I am not sold on Baylor winding up with a one seed but maybe they can. They have to play us twice, go to Tech, ISU and Oklahoma State - I am seeing two or three losses in there considering that they almost lost to both OSU and ISU on their home floor.
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Its a little early still with a lot of conference games left but Gonzaga is definitely a front runner for #1 spot. The Saint Mary’s road game is really the only imaginable road block in their way. Not sure BYU will be enough to beat them.
Villanova is likely getting on as well at this point with just road games against Xavier & Seton Hall and home tilts against Butler & Creighton left.
The problem with the Baylor/KU argument is that they still play each other twice and possibly 3 times. Baylor will need to win at least once, probably twice against KU to parlay their strong non-conference schedule to a #1 seed.
KU has to win the home games against Baylor/WVU and not lose to Oklahoma St on the road. It probably needs to make the finals of the conference tourney.
North Carolina has 6 teams against ranked opponents left so they are definitely still alive for a #1 seed if they run off some impressive wins coming up. With the east coast love affair for giving the ACC a #1 seed you can never count them out
UCLA will have to win against Zona & Oregon coming up to keep them in contention. Same goes for Zona who needs to win both games and the Pac-12 tourney.
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@BeddieKU23 yeah, UNC could still get a one due to them having a relatively easy schedule - they don’t have to play at FSU or Louisville. I personally would prefer that as I wouldnt want to be in the same bracket with them.
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Oregon lost to Colorado yesterday so from the PAC 12, Arizona is in the best shape to get the top seed., BTW, I believe the NCAA moved all the games from North Carolina, so no games in their backyard (Greensboro) for North Carolina ACC teams…
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@kjayhawks said:
I also find it interesting that Kenpom still has UK at #3 and us at #7 after the win and us having better SOS
I was wondering the same thing. I hope someone here can help explain because Kenpom has been favorable to us in the past and this year doesn’t look so good.
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Yeah that’s a bad loss for Oregon. Definitely put them out of contention right now.
UCLA is still with a #1 shot. It’s likely if they beat Arizona on the road that it does more for them then if they had beaten Arizona before at home. With the way it stands now Zona is a team on the rise and that will look good to the committee. UCLA has to win the Oregon home game as well as the Arizona road tilt because as it stands now UCLA is 1-2 against the 3 best teams its played all year. The 4 non-conference wins against Power 5 teams all came against teams having average seasons (Ohio St, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Michigan). The road win at Kentucky will only get them so far in a conference which is ranked I believe last of the Power 5.
Arizona is in the same boat, has to sweep and win the Pac-12 when its also got a 1-2 record against good teams.
I think your right about the games in North Carolina still being played elsewhere. Virginia had a golden chance to give themselves a lot of momentum for a #1 seed but they blew it yesterday. They still have a lot of big games left but would likely have to win them all. Someone from the ACC is going to be heavily involved in the #1 seed line because that’s how it always goes. UNC with all its home games against the big teams seems most likely. Louisville is a darkhorse there as well.
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We’ve always matched up well against UNC’s run and gun style and don’t play defense mentality. They are no different then the Kentucky team we just beat. I do think UNC when whole is a tougher team but I don’t exactly get scared at the chance of them being in our bracket. I’d be much more scared of playing Virginia and its slog pace or Louisville with its absurd length in the post. Those 2 teams just wear you down whether they have the most talent on the floor or not…
