Svi vs. BG Plot Thickens
Some times out in the margins of war things are going on the have a great influence on the out come later. Svi and BG seem a side show now, but come March, if either or both get their games down, as the long wing support, KU would go from very good to almost impossible to beat.
Last night, Svi inched ahead in the battle of the once sky high learning the glue Schtick before taking OVER KU next season.
BG has had all the edge of late, but then BG went Pillsbury and baked three flaky pop tarts.
But as usual Brannen brought game with the pastries from hell: six points and 4 REEBS in 11 sixties…
However, in 14 sixties, Svi got 7 points, 2 REEBS and a strip, and Svi turned down two scores. And Svi gave Self basketball Maypo, the thing Self screams for from subs–ZERO TURNOVERS.
Thus, Svi may get another nudge in minutes, but let us not mistake what really goes on here.
Self is like a machinist holding two crucial pieces to his grinder of competition and getting them polished up for March and then one dominant reign/rain of three point terror next season. These are two wings that will give opponents willies next season, especially with Bragg and Diallo cramming rare misses back.
Great post, made me think about next year’s team. Frank + Devonte + Vick. Wings would become very interesting if Selden leaves, and if Svi gets taken on potential. There is a remote chance some scouts are salivating over BG’s 3-ability…but I guess the theoretical early departure danger would become more possible if we see our guys starting to climb the mock draft boards.
I mean what did Oubre do last year that Selden isn’t doing this year? Yet Selden isn’t sniffing the 1st round on mock boards. I mean Oubre goes near lotto, and if 1yr compared to 1yr, Selden has done more for KU in this 1 yr than Oubre ever did in his 1 year. Selden “bought-in”, which is debatable if Oubre (or even Wiggins) ever actually did. Selden is not showing signs of “protecting the goods” that various previous OADs were suspected of…Maybe because Selden is just bigger, tougher that those past guys, and most guys he plays against, so he has less worries…?
This early departure could affect Bragg and Diallo, although they both have proven they have a lot of basketball developing to do in all phases before they are 1st round material. Those 2 in the post next year, + Coleby + Lucas…will be a SOLID rotation, with plenty of athleticism, rimprotection, brawn, and classic hi-lo ability.
Really, ihmo, the only early departure could be Wayne Selden, but he needs to keep producing the rest of this season as he is, and maybe he can sniff the first round.
The mock drafts are all over the place at this time of the year and it will be the end of February before they start to resemble reality; many of the sites have not even upgraded their ranking since the beginning of the season
For Example ESPN has Labissiere still at #4 but nbadraft does not have him listed in the first two rounds, which based on his recent play seems warranted; Selden is listed at #29. Personally, I believe Selden is a solid first round and if he continues to play like he has, he might work himself into a lottery pick, particularly if KU makes a deep run at the Dance.
@ralster NBA drafts underclassmen on potential. Not what was contributed to their college team. Fair, reasonable or not…
@jaybate-1.0 do you think Svi having one better game makes this closer race? Apparently so, i’d prefer to see some consistency from Svi first.
@Bwag and BG has regressed the last 2 games. He was really on an uptick before the OU game. Self still giving him chances and it looks like his attitude is still positive. Heck he was on the court before the game was over!
From within my own world of gossiping hens (outside of KUBuckets), I am grasping the reality that there is an excellent chance Cheick and Carlton will both be back next year.
This has a lot to do with why our recruiting has sucked so far. We won’t have the minutes to give up… anywhere. Well… on second thought, better find another good 4 who can score from everywhere…
So what do you think… are we the Royals LAST YEAR when they finished runner-up and then came back with more spunk (and a chip) to kick butt this year?
If we did finish runner-up, and our only sure loss of valuable minutes is Perry… would Wayne return even if his stock is high enough to possibly make him a lottery pick?
I think the strongest part of Wayne is his heart. I don’t think he would leave with unfinished business.
@Crimsonorblue22 Ultimately, both need to continue to shore up performance in the games.
I think the Buddy H scored 4/4 when Svi was on him in the OU game. He moves well, but seems like people are pretty effective getting shots up against him. Greene’s issues at times has been staying in front of folks, but he’s made strides there.
BG’s consistency at 3-ball has been big though which as @justanotherfan pointed out has gravity and opens up the game on O-side of the ball…for Greene himself driving past the onrushing defense or creating space inside by pulling help defense out of the lanes if used correctly.
Svi’s lack of consistency in the outside shot has not helped him create the same dynamics. If he does, he becomes a much bigger part of our success with his greater mobility and passing.
@drgnslayr this is the election year, not next! :-0
BG has regressed the last 2 games. He was really on an uptick before the OU game.
BG will bounce back. Every time a player still ramping up to full time status has an uptick, the opposing coaches study the video, scope out some more weaknesses, and then a player like Brannen has to go back to practice and remove the weakness. It takes a few weeks, or a month, but then they get back on to doing better.
If Svi’s minutes rise, then he will shortly attract the attention of opposing coaches and then Svi will stumble a bit again.
It is an interation all players go through while they are getting up to speed; this is why it is such a bitch to have to start from the beginning. Selden had all this physical ability and so had to start, because he could guard the full range of guys that needed guarding from the beginning. BUT…
Having to play all the time put him in the cross hairs of opposing coaches scheming, and so that is a big part of why Selden has intermittently looked so incredibly bad over the years. He had to have all his flaws exposed when he had to keep playing, and it was very demoralizing at times not to be able to go over and lick his wounds on the bench. It really takes a monster talent in all phases of the game not to become demoralized with D1 players start exploiting one’s weaknesses.
Like I keep saying, Diallo and his folks ought to thank God Diallo doesn’t have to play every game, because about now he would be being savaged by opposing teams, the media, and fans. And he really lacked the foundation to suffer through. Diallo is exactly where he needs to be right now until next season. 6-15 minutes per game getting the nuts and bolts down; that is, actually entering next season with an existing, functioning foundation, then actually getting better from the interation of other teams exploiting him. If he will do this, the same way Bragg is apparently willing to do it, Diallo will become a terrific player and Bragg and Diallo will just mop up Division 1 for a season.
I really think the key to recruiting next season is to find some 4 year Jamaris and Landens and a transfer Hunter to begin grooming for continuity the following season. Next season, Bragg and Diallo are going to be monsters and will really only need Colby rotating with them, or maybe one more 4 star.
This is all piecing together beautifully for KU and for all the players involved.
Hey, when ever Diallo starts making defensive and offensive reads of the simplest kind, his PT will eek upwards steadily. But man, he just has no instinct at all for how to play with in any kind of offense. I mean, Self turns the offense down to “See Spot Run” level whenever he is in there now, he just doesn’t get the reads, when the opponent is any thing more than a mid major. Diallo literally showed no ability to read Tubby’s Ball Line. He moved and passed exactly as if he were playing against a conventional man to man.
Again, this is NO knock on Cheick. There is less reason for him to have a clue about how to play Division 1 Basketball even at the “See Spot Run” level, than there was for Svi.
I really think Svi, Bragg, Cheick and Brannen are going to make a fabulous foursome next season. And I’m psyched about LaGerrie fitting in at the 2.
The key recruiting break through we need is a plug and play 15 mpg guard, like Devonte was, That will really help with depth and continuity.
I would like to score the next Frank or Devonte. Build on the depth for after Frank is gone.
We need to at least snag one of these type players every 2 years to keep a steady rotation of experienced guard play out top.
Screen shot of stats: BG v Svi
Yellow=lead stat within the player subset
Pink=negative stat within the subset
Green= Team Lead, all players
Additional stats: BG v. Svi
There is no question that if Brannen and Svi were fighting for a starting position, Brannen would get it hands down.
Your stats make that clear. Brannen is productive. He was productive against TTech even though his minutes went down.
But they are fighting for back up minutes; that means they only have to protect, feed the post, make two open looks, and guard a 3, or a 2. Rebounds would be a tie breaker if either ever gets to where they can do all the other pre-requisites.
Whenever Self subs either guy with a lead, all he wants is the guy that defends the lead best. Self doesn’t look at defending a lead as making shots. Self views defending a lead as lengthening possessions, not turning it over, and our cornerstone players getting a chance to do what they do offensively after the possession has been lengthened; hence, the intolerance of TOs.
Whenever Self subs either guy when behind, all he wants is the guy that gets a board, makes a kick out trey, and protects.
Because KU was always ahead against TTech, Svi got more minutes, because the emphasis was on doing no harm, on reducing possessions, on making no mistakes. When your are running the passing offense, or the weave, to lengthen possessions, Svi gets the nod.
When KU is behind, the stats suggest that BG’s PT will go up, because he makes more happen so far.
One more thing: Svi, unlike Brannen, is learning to play an effectively new role. He is learning to be a muscle wing, rather than a tall, play making ball handler. Svi has clearly struggled with the new weight and the role. BUT…
Svi is showing signs of “getting it,” just as BG was showing signs of getting it earlier.
Svi appears to hold some advantage, when the defensive pressure gets turned up by the opponent, and more ball handling is required of the back up wing.
Whenever the opponent sits back and packs it in, Self seems inclined to try BG first.
But there is a point at which defensive pressure inside and packing it in inside exposes BG’s so-so passing judgement.
Regardless, I think both player has a narrowly scoped role. Defend a lead with Svi. Come from behind, or create a lead, with Brannen.
Beyond that both are improving and as they both improve, Svi will be limited by his inability to shoot the trey reliably so far. Brannen by his occasional wildness.
Yes, Brannen is instant offense, but his attention span is that of a gnat. Actually I’ve seen gnats with more focus… Limited minutes keep him focused. I had hoped his suspension would keep him focused longer than it did.
Svi so far is just potiental. When he gets it put together watch out! But for now he just fizzles, no pop.
@jaybate-1.0 Great point about role-context. Even though BG holds the very, statistically insignificant lead in TO/min, I think the nature of his TO’s is probably more due to inability to handle the ball well versus Svi may at times try to make something happen.
@jaybate-1.0 So, you are saying Diallo will be back next season? I love pop tarts. Strawberry is my favorite. Maaaan, back in the day I used to live on those things! And Dave Matthews, but I digress. Svi had a great game last night in the minutes he played. Solid defense, smart offense, moral breaking 3’s at crucial times. Even though Svi’s trey is 33%, I see it rising.
@drgnslayr Dude, if we make it that far, to the final game, KU will win it WUG style this year. I mean it. We get that far, its ours. Then I’ll need to hitchhike back to Lawrence from VT!
@Lulufulu haven’t got a key made yet?
@Crimsonorblue22 Oh yah, I have two keys. Im good.
Opposing coaches have figured out that all they have to do is show an opening to BG when he has the ball and he’ll turn it over when he puts it on the floor. I don’t cover my eyes when Svi dribbles like I do with BG.
NBA drafts underclassmen on potential. Not what was contributed to their college team. Fair, reasonable or not…
Much as i don’t like it, that does seem to be the case doesn’t? And if that is true then we might still lose both both Carlton and Cheick, which would totally suck.
@Jyhwk_InTigrtwn which could very well “suck” for them too.
@drgnslayr ya I read today that Bolden is looking for immediate playing time sooo- - - - -chances are you can kiss him goodbye, it seems that is just NOT HOW IT WORKS, you have to prove yourself, we have all seen how that goes, I’m beginning to wonder if we land any of the bigs. Allen says he is a long way off from deciding,Still very leary of taking Maker,I also saw that Trae is coming in I believe for the Texas game, I know it says Duke is leading on him but dam this is like the 3rd or 4th time he has been here which has GOT to be good. I know he was at late night this year, and he was here for late night last year, him and Porter talking very seriously about the package deal, we shall see. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
@Jyhwk_InTigrtwn Sad but true.
@Jyhwk_InTigrtwn They are putting up Perry like numbers as Freshmen on the offensive stats side. That said, they bring enough rawness that keeps them from significant minutes. However, Bragg is out-minuting Hunter M. on the season.
Texas Hawk 10
Svi and BG have different skill sets that are complementary to one another. BG is a shooter that is largely dependent on others to get him open looks off of screens, pick and rolls, pick and pops, and such. He can take less athletic guys off the dribble like we’ve seen him do quite a bit in the non conference this year, but against similar and more athletic guys, he needs others to get him shots. He is what we’ve seen a lot out the 3 spot over the years under Self.
Svi has good enough handles to be the secondary guy next to the lead guard. He can also create his own shot and drive and dish and get others open looks.
This year, Greene is better suited to sub for Selden and Svi is better suited to sub for Mason and Graham. We’ve also seen Svi and Greene on the floor together this year as well including against Tech.
Seems like it to me.
True but take our own team for example.
Diallo is barely playing, literally barely playing more than 2-3 minutes in a half now. How could any NBA team look at his pre-playing hype and then now and still draft him as highly as he was projected before Self locked him in a cage. Is Self really this crazy for sitting him over Lucas and Mari? Or is his assessment of where Diallo is right now fair, correct, and a reality check for Cheick in terms of what he should do with his future.
When was the last time a player played so little and contributed so little to his team and went Lottery, even first round. Honestly I don’t even know where to look for that but if there is players I would love to hear them.
The thing is there is still so much time left. That word potential is a label that Diallo will carry with him even if he comes back. So much potential. @ralster Oubre was drafted on potential, as well as his great measurable’s at the end of the day. Nobody will question that Selden is playing better, is a better player right now than Oubre was last yr. But Selden doesn’t have that perceived potential stick driving him with hype. Scouts saw him, they were quickly drawn away from his inconsistent play. Now he’s morphed into a very good college player. Do scouts look at his improved shooting as a 1 hit wonder, or an acquired skill through hard work. I still think ball-handling is a big weakness of his for the position he will have to play (2-guard). It’s the same thing that McLemore has struggled with in the league.
Honestly, Selden is showing the same the progression that Buddy Hield did last year. Hield wisely came back and is now in the lead for POY. Hield was good enough to make a NBA roster but went back to Kruger and made this team his. Selden has a chance to take another off-season and become this alpha dog. He’s trying to show it this year and his play has been stellar but we know there’s more. If Selden doesn’t end with a safe 1st round grade why wouldn’t you come back and get your degree and potentially become an Allen Fieldhouse legend.
@Texas-Hawk-10 Good points. One also has to remember that BG had a major surgery & lost the entire summer. Plus he was suspended for 5 games so he is still behind & I expect his performance to improve as the season progresses.
@AsadZ good points
@drgnslayr To answer your question, is KU last year’s Royals? Personally, I think we are FinalFour good this year. Here’s why: We are Equipped to “F” the refs in March. (Since the vast majority of our scoring does not come from the 5 position, we have theoretically 5 x 5 = 25 fouls to use to absolutely muddy-up, muck-up the game in the paint (refs be damned), in true OkieBaller/Izzo fashion. (Notice Self is a descendant of the Okie style, and has gotten “schooled” by Izzo). Self could choose to make the defensive possessions brutal. While on the offensive end, its the current Ellis/Wayne/Devonte/Frank/Greene Show.
Stated another way: this team has the personnel to be not-soft in the paint…should Self decide to go all-Big10-style in a certain matchup. For example, we would absolutely destroy Roy’s UNC Tarholes, since they personify finesse-soft. Every time Self’s teams play Roy’s, we are always the tougher bunch.
In all fairness, the NBA is getting a lot better. They have now very good scouts and access to very sophisticated models to predict “potential.” Are they right all the time, no. Do they get burned all the time like they used to? Also no.
If you look at some of the better, more up to date mock drafts, Diallo is now a late first round pick and moving down and Selden is also a late first round pick but trending up. BTW, Labissiere is off the board on a couple of mock drafts I saw; chances are that, barring a much improved play going forward, he comes back next year.
Texas Hawk 10
@BeddieKU23 Here’s the difference between Selden and Oubre as far as their draft status goes. Oubre and Selden project to different positions in the NBA with Oubre being a 3 and Selden will be a 2 in the NBA because of his size. Selden could very well end up like Keith Langford as guy more suited as a 3, but isn’t long enough to play the 3 in the NBA.
Another factor is that Oubre was further away from his ceiling than Selden is and that possibility of developing and reaching that ceiling has a bigger risk/reward pay off than drafting someone who’s already playing much closer to their ceiling like Selden is which makes Selden viewed as a safer pick and safe picks are generally taken lower in the draft because the risk/reward pay off isn’t as high.
If Selden stays for year 4 and shows his ceiling is as high as his recruiting ranking out HS suggests it is, then he could very well end up in tge lottery because he would be a very high ceiling player who doesn’t need as much development becayse he’s already playing close to his ceiling.
You both had good responses. The NBA is getting better with the chances its taking because of statistics among other things. It still might not stop teams from taking chances on guys like Skal & Diallo with major long term potential but at least teams are not going into the decision process without data to support it.
Your right, they play different positions and the GM’s viewed Oubre far away from his ceiling. I still think Wayne has a lot more to give before he reaches his, but he’s definitely stepped his game up to where a team could look at him with a lot of promise. His position has to be 2 guard, really he needs to develop steady ball skills to even stick around. He’s not going to get by without putting the ball on the floor or learning to take some PG responsibilities in a pinch.