Embiid, Wiggins and 3 Place Holders Beat TTech
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@DinarHawk: yours is a thoughtful and thought provoking post.
Inconsistency happens.
Consider Texas and ISUâs play this conference season.
But your insightful question is: does it happen to Selfâs teams more?
I used to think it did, because of a self-fulfilling prophecy in Selfâs philosophy that players play 1/3 good games, 1/3 average games and 1/3 bad games.
I still think it does and that it is a core driver why Selfâs teams show more inconsistency than another exceptional coach like John Woodenâs teams did.
But I think something not unexpected has occurred.
Selfâs phenomenal success the last ten years has lead many if not most coaches in the Big 12 to adopt this part of his philosophy and, as a result, we may be witnessing a normalizing of Selfian inconsistency. I suspect we are seeing more teams manifest this inconsistency.
Understand this inconsistency appears to have two probable drivers though.
First, there is the self fulfilling prophecy of assuming the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 distribution of good, average and bad games.
Second, there is his apparent assumption that teams cannot be geeked up for two games in 3, or 4 days. Self appears to âgeekâ his teams up for the tougher opponent in a two game set and to send his teams out flat for the weaker one. This leads to more âplannedâ and more âextremeâ inconsistency.
Self is in effect trying to bias his good performances higher and trying to bias those good performances to come against the better opponents, while biasing his worst performances to come against lesser opponents.
This squeezes more Ws out of a given amount of talent, when other teams are coached to be consistent every game.
It remains to be seen how Self will do, as others copy his approach.
Will he evolve a counter measure to his own approach?
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@jaybate 1.0 What I do know is this; That was one ugly ugly game that Embiid and Wigs saved us on. Both of them together had 37 and 12 which was more than half of KUâs production, or lack there of. But we won a freekin grind out muddy ugly game, something we couldnât do early in the season. Coach probly doesnât even need to get his guys geeked up for Texas on Saturday. They owe them a bigtime punch in the nose for the last game. If we tie up with Texas on Saturday then we will most likely have wrapped up at least a share of the conference title for the 10th straight season! Unprecedented in this era of CMB.
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My issue was the use of the term âdishonor.â
Definition of dishonor:
dis¡hon¡or [dis-on-er] noun
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lack or loss of honor; disgraceful or dishonest character or conduct.
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disgrace; ignominy; shame: His arrest brought dishonor to his family.
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an indignity; insult: to do someone a dishonor.
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a cause of shame or disgrace: He is a dishonor to his family.
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Commerce . failure or refusal of the drawee or intended acceptor of a bill of exchange or note to accept it or, if it is accepted, to pay and retire it.
Now, does anyone think that the players that did not have good games fall into any of these categories? I absolutely do not think so.
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This is a great thread to highlight that each of us 'Hawk fans/alums âseeâ different things with our âmindâs eyeâ when we are judging & evaluating our beloved 'Hawks.
I thought for the most part, Selden, who had a lackluster statline, dedicated himself to defense (on Dusty Hannahs), who didnt go off like Heslip/Forte on us. Selden hit a couple of key BIG threes.
I thought our defense was pretty active, and I literally saw several of our players trying to âjumpâ passing routes. The biggest headache was the late shot clock buckets, or the daggum offensive rebounds going to TxTech.
What most posts have NOT talked about enough is how Tubby Smith coached his players well enough to have them switch their defense in the last 10sec of our shot clockâŚall those things conspired to make it a close grinder, keeping KU out of offensive rhythm. I havent seen a team switch defense by-design like thatâ> very impressive move! We were lucky to pull this out.
Credit Self and Wiggins with the aggressive âdrive itâ philosophy, as the foul discrepancy REALLY kept us in it, and took key TubbyTechies off the floor for key minutes.
Selfball is designed to win grinder type games, but this team really doesnt have the experience to do itâŚso us pulling this one out was a true learning experience.
I begrudgingly thank the Cyclones for adding an âLâ to Texas.
Also notice how Greene hurt us a bit by a missed 3 and a end-of-half turnover, didnt even get a shot att up.
Notice how AW3 came in and was a neutral (didnt help us, but didnt score or steal either). Mason was a neutral. Tharpe, bless his heart was a net-negative. Couple of very, very Tyshawn-esque gift turnovers late in the game. I always said Tharpe âtook notesâ from Tyshawn, but I always meant about the âgoodTyshawnâ.
Iâll take the WâŚand on that loose ball, you saw KU guys wanted it more, as WiggyBaby was right there. Iâm not going to dishonor my guys, as they are simply too young for me to hang my hopes on any sort of consistencyâfrom any of 'em, really, other than TharpeâŚand Iâve said enough about Tharpeâs D lately to decide its best to just support him & hope for better games out of everybody.
RCJH. Good posts by jaybate & everybody!
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@ralster do you see Greene getting more chances? Last night blunders and his behavior problem, worries me. I really want to see more of him.
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@jaybate 1.0
Ground and pound, JB! You laid it down⌠especially with the comment about how most of the team went on break because Joel was back. As I said a few days ago, we should have left him out of this game, too. Make the rest of the guys fight for this win.
The season is too short⌠not enough games to teach these kids lessons.
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@JayHawkFanToo I see your point, and agree with itâŚbut I also know jaybateâs style, and his use of âdishonorâ here is simply a âpicturesqueâ attention-getter for discussion, and to help make his point. Some writing styles âoverstateâ the case in order to highlight a point.
Summary: 3 of our 5 starters had lackluster play & statlines. I dont think Jaybate was disrespecting the players, if we allow for âcolorful dictionâ. The de-lousing visual was just too funny (to me)! Another example is his colorful descriptor of Tharpe as âshort-leggedâ. Or Releford as âlong-neckedâ (putting an asterisk by Relefordâs 6â5 height). Or calling Tyshawn a âwhippetâ (extremely fast, ultra-thin). Thatâs just funny stuff.
One final thought: Each of these players has a higher ceiling, regarding stats and potentialâŚhuge upside actually. That may be why Jaybate is calling attention to them. He may not spend the time to do so with a plateaued player, right? We all want more consistency & production, but that is a challenge with a team so young, coupled with Selfâs experienced-coach-observation of the Rule of 1/3rds over the years.
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@Crimsonorblue22 Well, I only saw the 1-2min at the end of the 1st half for Greene. But at least he did get in the game. AW3 also got to play 1-2 min, I believe.
I personally believe Self is breaking new territory with this 11deep roster. Its just crazy to have 5 usable bigs, and all the guards. And he plays 'em. Unlike 2011 MorrisHawks, where we all griped that BradyplayswhileEJridespineâŚas we went down to UNI and VCU, the camera panned the KU bench-of-athletes who never played or contributedâŚ
So Iâm willing to see Self work this out. I think he is still learning about the guys, like an e-x-t-e-n-d-e-d non-conf season, to judge the most reliable lineup. And, finally, due to the extreme youth, there may be NO reliable lineup, as 3 of 5 starters provedâŚ
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@ralster if in the tournament our pt guards are playing like they did last pm, can you think of another option? My son and I were kicking that around last pm. Selden is TO prone. Mason seems to be getting less time. Naadir has had many great games, hoping they can figure that out!
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There was some good back-and-forth discussion late last night on REHawkâs thread âMr. Ellis, meet Mr. Smithâ. The debate was whether this was a good win or a âlowâ win as Jaybate posted. Honestly, after years of reading Jaybate post about how Self will vary how he âampsâ his teams from contest to contest, I was surprised to see him so down on the team.
Some observations:
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Tharpeâs defenseâŚdoes it even need to be discussed anymore? He does try, as Reid Gettys pointed out last night when he broke through a double screen to blow up one of Techâs set plays. But those instances were few & far between. Combine that with his two late game turnovers and he hurt us more than anybody last night. At this point, if he doesnât get hot from 3 in a game, then weâre just hoping to manage the net negative we take at that position. That being saidâŚMason with only 6 minutes?
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Wiggins - Very aggressive. Definitely makes plays at the end of close games. I think at this point there isnât any doubt who our go-to guy is, or at least should be. Two plays last night that warrant some attention: first, some posters have been waiting for him to dive for a ball. I donât know that it was technically a dive, but he did go to the floor for a loose ball. Is that enough to placate the nay-sayers? Second, on a drive in the second half he got knocked down and slid across the baseline. Did anyone notice how three of his fellow Jayhawks rushed to him? My first thought was that maybe this was in response to the Marcus Smart incident, that they saw their teammate heading closer to the opposition fan base and immediately wanted to get him out of there. There were no Tech players around him, and the rate that his teammates came to his aid just seemed out of the ordinary. At any rate, there was also some discussion on what Wigginsâ teammates think of him because he doesnât look to pass off his drives. I donât think thereâs any doubt his teammates like him and respect him.
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Perryâs struggles last night were a real head scratcher. This should have been a game he dominated. Tech didnât have the bruising front line that gives Ellis problems sometimes. And against zonesâŚwell Self made the comparison to Julian Wright after the TCU game. How when opposing teams went zone Julianâs eyes would get real big and he could really dominate, and how Perry had a lot of that in his game. Granted Tech did a great job switching from M2M, to one zone to another. Also, the only thing I can attribute it to is foul trouble. Itâs not the first time Iâve posted how Perry gets completely out of rhythm and is a non-factor in a game he has foul trouble.
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Embiid - Self said going in heâd like for him to play 25 minutes. He ended up with 32. A positive sign? He said he felt about 90%, but if that was the case that 10% was noticeable. He did have a veru good, efficient game, but wasnât the game-changer down low that he can be at times. And he was thrown to the floor a couple of times last night. Anxious to see how he fares in the rematch with Ridley & the Longhorns.
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Black/Traylor - another solid performance from these guys off the bench. Such a luxury having great post depth. Love watching Jamariâs offensive game evolve. Heâs not the natural that Embiid is, thus he isnât absorbing the game at an astronomical rate, but just imagine if this guy would have been playing hoops at an earlier age.
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I believe I am overprotective when someone questions our players hearts. Although I donât know the players personally, I believe that we have not only great payers but also great individuals as well. and I donât like when a label, hyperbole notwithstanding is attached to them. Enough said.
As far as the 1/3 rule, I am more inclined to the âruleâ Fran Fraschllla stated that goes something like this:
Every season a team will have 5 games when it plays out of their minds and will win almost regardless of who the opponent is. It will also have 5 games when it plays poorly and will likely lose; the rest of the games the team will play to its average/mean. The key to a good season is to win those games when you play poorly.
Last night was good example of winning a game when you play poorly. A harbinger of good thing to come, perhaps?
I believe that teams tend to play to their mean the majority of the time. Now, we tend to see some games KU plays as being below that, but in reality they are closer to the mean than we realize. For all the talent KU has, it is also a very green team with 3 starting freshmen. Yes, the ceiling is high and when they are clicking on all cylinders, they are a sight to behold, but certainly this is not the mean for this team at this time. As the season move on, obviously the mean moves up and hopefully by tournament time it is high enough to overcome poor individual performances.
KU is one of those rare, lucky teams where losing any one player would not necessarily doom the season. I have watched a few Kentucky games and if Randle were to get injured, the teamâs overall performance would decrease dramatically. For all the superstars they have, they are heavily dependent on one player.
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âPerryâs struggles last night were a real head scratcher. This should have been a game he dominated. Tech didnât have the bruising front line that gives Ellis problems sometimes. And against zonesâŚwell Self made the comparison to Julian Wright after the TCU game. How when opposing teams went zone Julianâs eyes would get real big and he could really dominate, and how Perry had a lot of that in his game. Granted Tech did a great job switching from M2M, to one zone to another. Also, the only thing I can attribute it to is foul trouble. Itâs not the first time Iâve posted how Perry gets completely out of rhythm and is a non-factor in a game he has foul trouble.â
I think you put it all into perspective in this one paragraph (concerning Perryâs play). You answered your own question⌠your own head scratch.
Perry seems to be a player who flows in and out of harmony. Itâs his rhythm (or lack there of).
When he gets going out of the blocks early, he seems to feel the rhythm, and he relaxes more and lets his body play the game on instincts. He looks much faster because there is no pause in his game. He is very explosive because he makes his moves the very split second he receives the ball.
When Perry is out of rhythm he makes it a head game. When that happens all of his motions are on hold until decisions are made in his head. Then he looks slow and lethargic. He then has other issues that start piling on. It is all a head game at this point and heâs been self-conditioned to realize that the game isnât going well for him. He instantly loses confidence, and it just piles on top as another complication for his brain to deal with on the court.
This is just my opinion⌠but Iâd bet the farm on it as being the reason why one game he is on and the next he if completely off.
I doubt there is much anyone can do for him to help him⌠he has to come to the realization of what is going on in his head and body and he has to learn to make proactive adjustments to prevent staying off rhythm.
When Perry gets off rhythm, and his brain starts to short circuit his actions, he needs to override that relay by hard-wiring around his brain. Cut his brain off from participation. Both him and Tharpe need to practice zen. They both need a zen moment in the locker room before each game where they go to the same place (in their minds) and they find wholeness. And from that place they can install the game plans. Perfect execution, total confidence⌠all visualized before they hit the floor. Their rhythm is in place, and they go out and start every game on the right foot.
Notice how many times Tharpe starts games with a TO. Uh⌠wasnât it Tharpe who made the TO on our first possession last night?
If Tharpe and Ellis would come through the tunnel in the right state of mind, we wonât lose another game this year! Yes⌠we will run the table, including March Madness!
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Hereâs Perryâs starts after his 20 point games this year: Duke 24 and 9, then Iona 21 and 7, then Towson 10 and 4
New Mexico 21 and 9, then GTown 5 and 2
Toledo 21 and 11, then SDState 4 and 5
OK 22 and 11, KST 12 and 5
IA St 20 and 6, Tex 11 and 2
TCU 32 and 8, TTech 4 and 2
On the other hand by looking at his âpoorâ games, less than 10 points, he only followed that up once by another poor game. 4 times he followed single digit scoring games with 20 or more points in the next.
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A few years back, while doing work for the DoD I had the privilege of briefly witnessing part of the SEAL team training at Coronado in Southern California. What impressed me the most was how much they emphasize training and how they are told over and over that once in action, they need to âtrust their training.â No time to think in real situations,
I think you have it right when you say that when Perry plays head games, i.e.thinks too much. The split second he wastes is the difference between having an easy shot or having his shot blocked. Maybe he need to think less and justâŚtrust his training. When he does that he is explosive and unstoppable, when he does notâŚnot so much.
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@JayHawkFanToo you can see that on D too, he doesnât react, then itâs to late.
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Here are a couple of good links on what Iâm talking about⌠zenâŚ
The Russians did a study several decades ago on this. It is called âcreative visualization.â
This is what Ellis and Tharpe need to do!
And here is an over-simplified description on how to do it:
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@jaybate 1.0 and @ everyone else. KU has very nearly always had problems in February with losing close games or not playing to the best of their abilities. Look at the 08 season when they lost 3 of 7 and last season when they lost 3 in a row. Im certain there are other seasons where February has been particularly harsh on these guys. They will be fine by March, I just hope they donât lose too many more games because of seeding for selection sunday.
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@JayHawkFanToo I share your sentiment about our players being great individuals, as that is what Self recruitsâand I greatly respect your sticking up for players, as honestly, that is the reason I started posting on kusports back in 2007âto defend what I saw Self trying to build. By now, everybody knows Self is a guiding-father-type, sometimes loving, sometimes harsh. But his themes are consistent. So it is up to the playersâ own timelines & learning curve to improve & produce (as expected at K.A.N.S.A.S.). Some fans have patience, some have less patience.
As you said, I dont like disparaging remarks, especially the truly insulting variety being made on our guysânot by opposing fans, and not by our own fanbase. At times I have been VERY salty in response to those types of posts, over the years, over on kusportsâŚSome of the heat sufferred by EJ, Tyshawn, Sherron, Twins, etc⌠is warranted, but the personal insults are not acceptable. Its no different than Jeff Orr TxTech fan, calling Marcus Smart a piece of ----. Not acceptable. I thought Smart was hurting his team with his poor decisions on court, and bad publicity with flopping, but I will defend even that player from personal insults from a grown man (who âhas never worn a jock strapâ as D.Vitale put it). Honestly, some of Smartâs behavior is the non-checks/balances not being provided by his coach, Travis Ford.
To me, comments made about players specifically by name, are all about the tone and context. Jaybate doesnt intend insult to our guys. His tone and delivery are usually amusing attention-getting phrases to catch a readerâs attention. This pasttime of cussinâ&discussinâ our Jayhawks is also a creative-writing outlet for some, as it obviously is for jaybate, and many of us like his analogies taking us outside of the box, so to speak. And jaybate isnt one of those fans that, just because they love ku ball, feel they can say personally insulting things about our own guys. If you want to see truly un-informed posts, blasting on ku players, try kusports under the football articlesâŚor look at some posts after the Michigan, VCU, UNI losses. People cant handle the half of sports that IS losing a game.
Again, thank you for defending our playersâŚas a KU alum, I really like and support the âfamilyâ atmosphere that Self has fostered. Win or lose, I will ALWAYS stand behind our guys (as people are well aware, considering all my defense of Twins, TRob, EJ, Sherron, Tyshawn, etc., and lately, having to defend Wiggins, too.). I always say that the players will carry a season-ending loss with them forever, way more poignantly than any of us ever could. Theirs is an exclusive club with 100% highs, and 100% lows, with all the aches, pains, & sweat in between.
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I agree⌠we often run into problems in February. There is a reason for that. We typically have plenty of talented, experienced players that have come close to reaching their playing ceilings. We usually play well early in the year, and we make some gains over Christmas break. But sometime in February, our opponents often catch up to us in execution. At this time we are usually facing teams for the second time. They have us scouted and they put lots of energy into a game plan to beat us. Their energy can be directed just on us.
But this year, we have such a young team⌠very far away from reaching their ceiling. So we should be making big improvements all through the season. We shouldnât be dipping in February⌠we should be improving all year.
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I think what I am trying to say is simpler than that. Do all your thinking, ask all your questions, perfect your technique at practice and not at game time; if you are doing it at game time the results are likely not going to be positive.
I am a fan of John Wooden (the coach) and this was written about himâŚ
âThose who were close students of Coach Woodenâs can tell you that he was famous for a peculiar coaching tendency: he rarely called timeouts. It might be tempting to dismiss this as a coincidence since his teams were often so dominant, but this simple explanation would deprive others of an important lesson. Coach Wooden rarely called timeouts because he believed that his job was to teach his players how to prepare, then to prepare them thoroughly for every game. Once the game started, he largely left it to his disciplined army of athletes to figure things out for themselves, often times even when they found themselves in a spot of bother.â
This is what I am talking about. Perry needs to âdo his thinkingâ during practice, and at game time, turn on the beast mode, trust his training and dominate like he has show he is capable of doing.
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Iâm a big fan of Wooden, too.
He was all about prep.
He started every year by showing players how to put their shoes and socks on. Players would laugh and think it was stupid. But the lessons continued⌠and intensified⌠until they werenât laughing any longer. Wooden was the master of preparation and detail. He then shifted accountability to the players, where it should be.
He was once asked why he spent time showing them how to put their shoes and socks on and he said, âI just wanted to be complete. To teach every aspect I knew that could help my players become their best. And surprisingly, many didnât know the right way to put on their socks and shoes!â
Iâm sure he had it down to a science. And he never had a player trip on a shoelace.
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@drgnslayr That sounds like Lombardiâs " Gentlemen, this is a football. " speech.
You just canât emphasize the basics too much.
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Bill Self has the most wins of any coach in the last 5 years (178-33) and the best winning percentage. Bill Self has the 2nd most wins of any coach in the last 10 years (320-65), only behind John Calipari (324-70), but has a better win percentage than Calipari. Heâs won or shared 9 straight regular season titles, and 6 of the last 9 conference tournaments. National Championship in 2008, National Championship appearance in 2012. Multiple coach of the year awards, and a bunch of other stuff that Iâm probably forgetting. Iâm sure youâre all familiar with these numbers. The point that Iâm making is that I donât care if Kansasâ play is inconsistent from game to game as long Kansas keeps winning at the rate that they have been since HCBS arrived.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Good point ! We KU fans have been seriously spoiled the last 25+ years and I personally tend to forget that - oh yeah, we own college basketball (lol).
Especially after that last game, thank you for pointing out what an outstanding program we really have.
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@bskeet I was at Johnnyâs Tavern watching the game and when Tharpe made that second boneheaded turnover, the entire bar collectively lost their s$@!. Itâs like the light switch to his brain suddenly turned off and he forgot how to handle a basketball. Kinda reminds me of Space Jam when all the players lost thier abilities and couldnât do anything with the rock.
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@jaybate 1.0 The assumption that teams play 1/3 good, 1/3 average and 1/3 bad games is probably a pretty accurate observation of human/team nature.
Regarding Selfâs âgeekingâ strategy: My opinion is that the Blue Blood Programs do need to selectively âgeekâ their players. Itâs really a corollary to the 1/3,1/3, 1/3 theory of human/team nature mentioned above. We just cannot operate at peak performance every time out. When you are playing league teams you are familiar with that are not as talented, a coach has to know which games to geek his players. Self is a master at it.
As for other Big 12 coaches copying Selfâs âgeekingâ strategyâOther teams may benefit from selective geeking when they play each other. But KU is every league opponentâs Final Four every time we play. They are naturally geeked every time they play KU, especially when they play KU at home. Therefore, KU should never really be impacted by any other Big 12 coach copying Selfâs geeking strategy.
