Matt Tait article on KU ball
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@HighEliteMajor why? Why are one persons stats irrelevant and yours all there is in the world?
I don’t get that.
Does anyone get that?
Why when you ask for stats to back up an argument and someone takes the time to produce them you discredit them for not making sense or being irrelevant?
This is what I was getting at earlier. Why is it that when you say something we must bow down to your holiness, but when someone says something to ruffle your feathers its BS and we shouldn’t take them for what they say. Just because you say so.
I will take your talk on the game. I think you have some good points here and there. Are you the greatest basketball mind on this board? Probably not, but I don’t have proof to prove it one way or another just as I don’t have proof what others basketball IQ is or coaching accumen might be.
But when you step behind your lecture and stand on your soap box it gets tiring to read over and over and over again.
Ok go for it. Come at me with your personal attacks like you always do.
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@JRyman I’m not sure you understand the point of my post. His premise is “so much for statistics.”
My point is that statistics … his, mine, yours … are important. It is a response in support of the use of statistics.
Further, I am supporting a point that many who are a not fans of statistical analysis argue – that selected stats can’t be viewed in a vacuum.
His citation of the Royals is suggested to show that stats are meaningless in the scope of overall team performance. Further, selected stats are used to prove his point while ignoring many other stats I did not cite – selective use of statistics.
Therefore, I cited stats – the items that he suggests don’t tell the story – to help explain the story. For example, Hosmer’s RBI statistic and Davis’ ERA. And in doing so, I highlighted a very real point when dealing with stats – the selective use of certain stats to try to tell a story, doesn’t tell the story.
So, for example, if Traylor morphs into .32 per minute rebounder this season, and the rest of his stats stay constant, is it fair to cite all those other poor stats and ignore the rebounding stat? Do we cite his poor stats without citing the excellent rebounding stat, and then conclude “so much for stats” when he helps us win a national championship?
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Let’s face it… stats have become a HUGE part of sports.
First… stats are a tool. They are not the only tool to use for analysis, planning, coaching, etc… but they are a tool, and a very important tool.
Back to how stats have become a HUGE part of sports. I’ll go a step further… sports media is making stats the STAR of sporting events. Proof in point… the World Series. Now I can see how relaying some stats to the fans is useful, especially the one stat discussed in the link below… but come on! Every player was analyzed against the entire history of the World Series. Familia, who is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball today, was given the boot for being the worst… three blown saves… a World Series “record.” Was it really necessary to defame the guy because of what happened? He was put in bad situations, never a clean inning to step into, and an infield defense that plain stunk… and he was going against the very best (oops, almost gave away the stat that counted most).
I know one thing… I know one record that was truly SHATTERED during this World Series… the number of times that commentators compared and mentioned World Series stats. I bet it was in the hundreds of times.
Okay… I’ve cleansed my pallet.
Now… on to the one stat that really counted:
Incredible stat captures how clutch Royals were this postseason
I love these Royals! They defended everything that is right (and capable) in sports. They are the example. They have now set the bar. It was so refreshing to see real TEAM work and no egos creating separation. This may end up being my personal highest moment in sports I will ever witness.
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@JRyman you are being ridiculous! I’ll tell you what is getting “tiring to read over and over and over again”. You posting all over this site playing some sort of victim role in your head! In your two day rant, you have become everything that you have wrongly accused @HighEliteMajor and many other poster on here of being. You have absolutely missed the forest for the trees. The last two days, everyone on this board has been showing you some grace by “walking on egg shells” around your post, going out of their way to find something to agree with you on, or just ignoring you and the fact that you offended many of us on here.
First of all, I don’t even know why I’m wasting my time with your nonsense, but here we go. Many of us on here feel that Jamari’s over all body of work playing at KU shouldn’t earn him the kind of minutes that he has been seeing this last year. That is based on our opinions, stats, eye test, or maybe just gut feelings. In your post, you said that our thoughts, opinions, and analysis are “BS”. And you also said that we only feel this way because we are “haters”. I believe everyone on this site wishes the best for Jamari and we all hope that he can prove us wrong and have an unbelievable season. I don’t hate anyone. Now I don’t really care what you think of my opinions, but I do care when you accuse me and other poster on here of being “haters” when we clearly are not. Talk about “personal attacks”, huh!
Also in the same post, you accused us of “cyberbullying”. That was another ridiculous comment which ironically, turned to tragically laughable when you not only personally attacked us, but singled out @HighEliteMajor as the apparent lead “hater”. Talk about cyberbullying, singling out someone online to take your frustrations out on. Seriously, go back and read your post. What you have been doing the last couple days is the definition of cyberbullying.
You accuse @HighEliteMajor of “being on a self-appointed soapbox”. The only person who appears to wanting a soapbox to stand on is you! Here’s some advice for you going forward, the only way someone can be on a soapbox is if you give them the box to begin with.
Then to really throw salt in our wounds, when @HighEliteMajor tried to respectfully reply to you, you chastised him for not giving you an apology! Well, we’re all waiting on an apology from you.
@HighEliteMajor I apologize to you. I know you don’t need any help, but you’ve stuck up for me before and I’m returning the favor.
To everyone: There has been a lot of negative post on here directed at and meant to bash @HighEliteMajor 's character. First of all, I enjoy his post and anytime that I’m able to converse with him, as is the same with all of you. I like to share with you a story about a discussion I had with him. I think this was back in the spring, sometime near the end of last season. I can’t even remember what topic we were discussing, but it was a great back and forth. Point, counter point, counter point, etc… Everything stayed very respectful, and I know that the discussion opened my mind to better understand what we discussing, and I think for him too. But, after a lot of back and forth, he still held to his view and I still held to mine. Unfortunately, I knew that I wouldn’t be able to continue the discussion because I would be away from the computer for a while. But I so much enjoyed the discussion we were having that I made one more post to support my side of the issue, and then I sent him an IM to say thanks to him for the conversation and to tell him that he could have the last word because I had to back out. Now this is what meant the most to me, he could have posted a response and won the debate for all of you to see, but he didn’t. Conversation stood there as it was, for all of you to see, with me having the last word. Now I don’t know, maybe he didn’t think it was worth his time to respond to my last post. But, I like to think that maybe he respected me and my argument and didn’t want to win the debate that way with me having to back out of the discussion. He could have showed me up, but he didn’t, and what I found in that debate was more than basketball. It was mutual respect and grace. And I thank him for that.
@JRyman You have been acting like everything that you have been accusing other of, period. Where’s our apologies?
You might think about changing your signature line. How about this one?
"It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it.”
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very nice post!
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@jayhawkbychoice I hear you. In my original post I didn’t use any names.
I voiced my opinion just as that an opinion of some of the things I had been reading on this site over and over again.
It got to me and yes I lashed out. I let it fly. Then my opinion was taken to task, so like many other on here I defended myself.
There is no reason for anyone to walk on egg shells around me. I know for a fact that there were many who supported me either in the post or in private messaging as they too have run into the buzz saw and liked seeing someone else out there fighting.
STATS ARE HUGE in sports. I know I played football and basketball. I looked at stat sheets every Fridsy night. Mondsy during film sessions. Stats have their place. But to turn stats into one persons reason for something but not allowing another person to use the stats they want I find ironic.
I have never stood on a soap box. I just finally drew a line in the sand. Maybe I crossed it too? Who knows? Maybe the waves washed it out?
I find there are great posters on this site that are afraid to voice their opinion though because they are afraid of being tore apart or made to look foolish for having their own beliefs. I’m not saying it’s done by one person alone. @HighEliteMajor knows the game, I for one do not know to what degree, but reading what he rights can be informative. But it can also make people feel that their opinions and thoughts don’t matter and aren’t good enough.
Sorry to @HighEliteMajor for my rants and raves against you.
Sorry @jayhawkbychoice for ruffling your feathers.
But I will say this in closing. I’m not one to sit by and watch and let things go. Just because it’s always been done that way doesn’t mean it’s right. Sometimes we all need to be called out, just as you did to me. So I’ll let it go. For now, truth be told I hope others see this and do as I did from time to time, stand up for what they want to.
I think we all should keep each other in line. Call people out for getting mighty and over the top. Stand and rise. Feel good about your post. Back others opinions as you would your own if you agree.
@jayhawkbychoice You don’t have to agree with me. I don’t have to agree with @highelitemajor either.
So if I offended anyone else out there with my public rant and rave. I’m sorry. If you would like a personal apology please message me and I’ll get it out to you. If there is anything else I’ll be getting ready for dear season.
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Don’t you mean getting ready for tonight’s Exhibition Game??
Tonight we can focus on the players & see how improved some may be or how much work we have to do to get where we all want this team to go!
Tonight/Tomm and until next tuesday we can kick & scream at how well they did or how poorly we did. It will be nice to have a game to talk about
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@BeddieKU23 I have an old 30.06 with a new scope I need to dial in before next weekend. So I will be infect getting ready for deer season today a bit.
Can’t wait to read tomorrow’s post though.
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@JRyman No worries, my man. My apologies as well. Let’s point the ship forward.
@jayhawkbychoice Very much appreciated.
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You made a mountain out of molehill. My post simply illustrated that often enough statistics alone do not tell the entire story. Case in point, the stats I cited are numbers that are commonly used in baseball to illustrate performance and yet…looking at them by themselves paint quite a different picture than what the actual end result was.
I know you cite Traylor numbers often enough that we all probably know them by heart, but there have been many occasion where his defense and contagious enthusiasm have changed games. For example, the Baylor game last year when he hit 6-7 from the field and had 5 rebounds and 2 blocks and KU eked out a 56-55 win…without Traylor KU does not win that game, or the Easter Kentucky game in the NCAA where he scored 7-8 from the field and had 14…that is correct, 14 rebounds and he was the main reason KU was able to win that game. I am not saying that Traylor is a super star or that he should start, but when you post that Traylor is not even Division I material (yes, you stated that), then you lose credibility because he has not only played for a Division I team but he has started for an Elite Division I program in the top Conference in college basketball, so obviously he is plenty capable playing Division I…according to Coach Self, who I believe is more qualified than you to judge his performance (this is my personal opinion, of course) although you probably don’t agree with this assessment either, so we just agree to disagree. That’s all.
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@JayHawkFanToo I hope Traylor kicks a** this season. He (and CF) saved us in the EKU game as you pointed out. Have a great day – it’s KU’s first game and the start of another ride, which I will try to enjoy.
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Unfortunately, thanks to Zenger, I cannot watch the game so the radio will have to do…or an Eastern European Internet feed…
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@JayHawkFanToo You live in Johnson County, right? Buffalo Wild Wings will have game. Sort of like pay per view, given the high price of wings.
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Never cared for that place or wings for that matter. My Dad has Comcast at at his Retirement Home but he goes to bed at 8:00 PM.
I might be meeting friends at the Power and Light District this evening and I would think one of the many sports bars would have the game on. Thanks for the suggestion though…:)
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@JayHawkFanToo Every time someone mentions what a bad rebounder Jamari is (and I agree), I scratch my head trying to remember if it actually mattered last year.
So I checked the stats. Turns out, Jamari actually rebounded better (statistically) in games we LOST than in games we won last year.
Traylor rebounds per minute (rpm):
Season Overall: .182 rpm
Wins: .179 rpm
Losses (when outrebounded as a team): .189 rpm
All Losses: .190 rpm
In four of the nine losses, KU as a team was out rebounded, but in three of those 4 losses, Traylor actually had the second highest individual rebounding total. With a couple of exceptions, most of his best rebounding games were games KU lost including the final game against WSU (.3 rpm).
So, with that, I conclude that Traylor’s poor rebounding has nothing to do with his playing time. It’s actually a net positive… one of those intangibles that only a great mind like Bill Self would have noticed.
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@DanR Rebounds per minute is a flawed stat to me because it’s dependent on players missing shots. If players aren’t missing shots, the rebounds per minute are going to be lower because there’s fewer opportunities to get rebounds.
Let’s say a player goes into a game for a 5 minute stretch and both teams combine to shoot 12/16 from the field and no missed FT’s. In that 5 minute stretch, there were only 4 rebounding opportunities total so that would kill everybody’s rebounds per minute because there was a lack of opportunities. Personally, I prefer rebounding % because it is simply how many rebounds did you get relative to how many rebounding opportunities were there while on the floor. Back to the 5 minute stretch with 4 total rebound opportunities. If the player grabbed one of those rebounds, then is rebounds per minute would be 0.20 because 1/5 (1 rebound divided by 5 minutes). With rebound %, his number would be .25 because 1/4 (1 rebound in 4 opportunities).
To me, rebounding % is the better metric for determining who the best rebounders are because rebounds per minute includes a variable outside the players control and can distort the pucture. Last year, KU’s best rebounder was Cliff Alexander. Here’s the rest of the bigs and wings with their rebounding % numbers. (Offensive, Defensive, Total)
Cliff Alexander (13.3%, 19.9%, 15.5%)
Kelly Oubre (6.4%, 19.2%, 12.2%)
Jamari Traylor (9.0%, 11.2%, 9.4%)
Landen Lucas (12.5%, 19.1%, 14.8%)
Perry Ellis (9.0%, 17.2%, 12.4%)
Hunter Mickelson (13.4%, 15.0%, 13.2%)
And because the drop off is so staggering, here’s Jamari’s sophomore numbers (10.6%, 18.5%, 13.7%)
Looking at the numbers, there were 4 things that really stood out to me including Jamari’s sophomore numbers which I would take all of sophomore Jamari’s numbers in a heart beat this year because they were not bad numbers and he regressed big time last year from hus sophomore season. The other 3 things that stiod out to me were that KU was just a bad rebounding last team last year no matter how you slice it. A wing player should never be the second best defensive rebounder on a team, that is an absolute indictment of how the front court was at rebounding last year. The next thing is that Perry has regressed as a rebounder every year at KU, and the final thing is Hunter might be a worse rebounder than Traylor when factoring in Hunter’s size. His numbers last year were consistent with his numbers at Arkansas as well so Hunter just isn’t a good rebounder.
To me, this is where KU needs Cheick Diallo the absolute most is cleaning up the glass. His relentless motor and aggressive nature should make him a great rebounder in the Thomas Robinson realm. He will not be a great scorer or defender right away, but Diallo can be an elite rebounder from the second he steps on the floor in a Kansas uniform for the first time.
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I am beginning to laugh at how rebounds have become the biggest stat discussed on the site.
Is rebounding important? Yes it is.
Is it the stat of all stats? No it is not.
So many more things to concentrate on than just rebounding.
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@JRyman Don’t ruin the fun, man. This is probably the last we’ll mention rebounding for a month or two. We’ll be back to obsessing about three-point shot attempts in about 2 hours.
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@JRyman Rebounding is one of the stats along with turnovers that you can look at without seeing what the final score was and be pretty accurate in guessing which team won.
KU’s lost 19 games the past two years (same number as the previous 4 years combined) and has only had one abover average rebounder during thise two years and that was Embiid. When you can’t rebound, you give your opponents more opportunities to score which gives them a better chance to win. Rebounding may not be the absolute most important stat, but it’s pretty close because it’s one of those stats you can look at in the box score and be pretty accurate in guessing who won by which team had more rebounds.l and that’s not the case with most stats.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 FG% FT% Turnovers. Those stats to me can be glimpsed st and see who won the game.
Rebounding could be low if you are shooting at a high FG%. Unless you are then basing it on defensive rebounds alone. But how many shot attempts did they have? How many steals did you get before s shot even went up? How many times did you turn them over?
Rebounds can turn a game just like blocked shots and steals. Play good D they take bad shots have a low % then yes you should have higher rebound numbers.
But rebounds aren’t the first few stars I look at in the box scores. FG%. FT% and turnovers.
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@JRyman FT% doesn’t mean crap because a team can be perimeter based and rarely go to the line so even if they shoot a high % it doesn’t mean crap because the opportunities to score from the FT line aren’t there. Or a team can be a bad FT% team and still pound the ball inside and go to the line 30 times a game and win that way. Yes FT’s can impact a game, but that’s not usually the best way to see who won. I agree with FG% and turnovers (usually), and rebounds are right there with those two stats. If Team A is shooting really well, then there’s fewer rebounds for Team B to grab and Team B is likely to get crushed on the glass and scoreboard because of that. Rebounds equal scoring opportunities for your team while taking them away from the opponent which is why that is a such a coveted skill coaches look for in front court players.
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Rebounding and TOs help make up the possession totals.
Put possession totals with points-per-possession and you get to the punch line… FINAL SCORE!
The key is to compare against your opponent, not look at the stats just on our team. Games move at different paces.
To go deeper, analyze how you got your points-per-possession, and also your opponent’s stats, too.
I’m not a statistician but I respect those who are. There is always “more to the story” but stats give the bottom line.
I’m slowly grasping this new stat on the positive/negative a player has on point totals while getting PT.
I trust many of the posters in here on stats far over trusting myself!
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@drgnslayr said:
I’m slowly grasping this new stat on the positive/negative a player has on point totals while getting PT.
What I don’t like about that stat is it depends a lot on the coach.
If you go in with other subs and the best players are resting, your +/- stat may go down because the other guys stink, not you.
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@ParisHawk to many variables
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Here’s stats from three different actual games
Game 1: Team 1---- FT% .588 Total rebounds 34 Ast 13 steals 10 blocks 7 Team 2---- FT% .400 Total rebounds 49 Ast 18 steals 9 blocks 4
Who won?
Game 2: Team 1---- FT% .632 Total rebounds 28 Ast 14 Steals 11 blocks 3 Team 2---- FT% .933 Total rebounds 39 Ast 14 steals 11 blocks 1
Who won?
Game 3: Team 1---- FT% .667 Total rebounds 35 Ast 9 steals 6 blocks 5 Team 2---- FT% .714 Total rebounds 43 Ast 12 steals 4 blocks 11
Who won?
Now before I give you the teams and the final scores, let it be known that the FT% doesn’t indicate how many of those misses were the front end of one and ones. The reason I bring that up is that if you make the first one you get a shot at an easy second point. Miss and you left two points on the line. This is scoring opportunities, that are simple and easy. Could you imagine how low the FT% would be if yo missed the front end of the one and one and you got docked for automatically missing the second? Its a scoring opportunity and it easily can change the outcome of the game.
OK game 1 Team 1 2003 Syracuse 81 points Team 2 2003 Kansas 78 points KU favored by 15 rebounds and got beat by three, maybe FT% cost them in that game?
Game 2 Team 1 2008 Memphis 68 Team 2 2008 Kansas 75 KU out rebounded them by 11 and won, but yet out shot them from the FT% by .301 That’s a big difference in a game. Who know how many of their misses were front ends??
Game 3 Team 1 2012 KU 59 Team 2 2012 Kentucky 67 Not only did Kentucky beat KU on the boards but at the line. KU only had 9 TOs in that game to their 11, blocks might have played a part as well, but getting to the line and making those FT’s is huge.
Maybe there is a correlation between getting FT opportunities with rebounds and visa versa, there are other factors as well. But to call FT% crap, no way no how. You say it’s a disadvantage for a perimeter team to count FT%, well if it is guard laden aren’t they going togged beat on the boards as well? If a team pounds it inside and their bigs are getting fouled and their bigs miss FTs like Shaq then they left points on the line, free points non the less. You have to make the most of your opportunities to score easily, the FT line is just that an easy way to score. It’s not contested, you don’t have towny about getting blocked or shooting over someone, it’s the same shot every time, unless you count whats behind the supports.
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@JRyman FT% is a crap stat by itself without the context of how many FT’s were attempted. Did they go 2/5, 4/10, 8/20? FT% doesn’t anything in vacuum without knowing HOW MANY FT’s were attempted.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Well I’ve played for different coaches, spoke with a lot of HS and college coaches and even youth sports coaches. You are the only person that I have EVER, yes ever heard say that FT% is crap. It doesn’t matter how many you take, if you only take four, would you rather be at 75% or 25% or 50%?
I have worked basketball camps where they watch kids shoot free throws throughout the camp, they keep track of his parentage not how many he took. Yes they take into consideration how he got to the line, but if he gets there one time and goes 2 for 2 thats good. If he gets there 7 times and only hits 3 and misses the front end of a one on one now he is basically 3 of 8. Less than 50% is horrible. Less than 70% isn’t good. Less than 80% is on track, 85% plus is all good, doesn’t matter if you take 5 or 18.
Look at the bonus points it gives you alone. If you can’t get to the line because you want to settle for jump shots, then you better be able to knock those down from deep. If you are a great outside shooter then your FT% should be high, it’s a set shot, take advantage of it when you do get fouled.
If you play solid D and don’t give up a lot of shots to a team and yet they shoot for 67% from the field then there isn’t many rebounds you can get either. If you play a team that can’t hit the broad side of a barn or water from a boat then your rebound numbers should be sky high. Same can be said if you have an off night. So to say FT% without context is crap, so is rebounding. What did both teams take for attempts in a game, not possessions, but shot attempts, without that rebounds are just another number a crap number as you say.
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@JRyman You are now changing the premise of this from what it was. Of course making FT’s is a good thing, but that’s not what this was about. This is about which stats are good indicators of which team won a game without looking at the actual score. In the context of that, FT% is a crap stat wothout how FT’s were attempted and made.
You can cite exceptions all you want because they exist, I’ve never said they don’t exist. This is why I said that rebounds are good indicator, not a perfect one (final score is the only perfect one). With rebounds, it doesn’t matter how shots either team missed because both teams have the same number of opportunities to grab a rebound.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 For what it’s worth, I would suggest that rebounds per minute is a flawed stat only if the sample size is limited. The sample sizes we have used encompass an entire season and thus the concerns you have would be more diffuse with each game. Relatively speaking, it gives us a very good indicator of a player’s contribution in that regard. The number of missed shots is relatively static over a full season, given your own team, and your competition, and when you compare to prior seasons.
One reason we know the stat isn’t flawed on Traylor is because it is generally consistent with other numbers, such as rebound percentage., as pointed out in @Jesse-Newell’s article last season. If we get inconsistent outcomes, I’d suggest we should reconsider. But we don’t.
This is the same with the +/-. When you assess this progressively over the season, it has increasing value. Same with the PER.
And if you dismiss these stats over an entire season, you have to dismiss all stats – what’s to say a player won’t shoot much better in the next 35 games?
Now, you could simply say “too many variables” and dismiss these important pieces of evidence as @Crimsonorblue22 does, or you expand your universe of information. There aren’t “too many variables” to any of this. You just have to take the stats for what they indicate, nothing more, nothing less.
Regarding FT%, all @Texas-Hawk-10 is saying is that the more free throws shot, the more the % is an important indicator. That almost seems indisputable – am I wrong there?
By the way … Traylor had 2 rebounds in 16 minutes last night. That’s .125 per minute. Way low. Is it important to consider? Yes, but only because of his history. But this season, it’s a blip. As games accrue, it will mean more for this season. But it is consistent with the pattern.
And remember, rebounding rate is an incredibly important stat because of the position Traylor plays – power forward. Rebounding is a lead job description. No argument there, I hope. That is, as a PF, we wouldn’t get all worked up about Traylor’s three point shooting, most likely. He could be 1/8 for the year. So what. Same with Frank Mason’s rebounding … he’s a point guard. Not a main job description.
