Chiefs Blow So Others Can Learn....
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@JayHawkFanToo Well - think about it… If they had done that, then they would have won. Then they would have blown their streak of getting beaten by Denver for the past 297 straight games.
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I’d like to know the success rate of these late game “pass prevent” defenses? They always seem to give away offense more than just playing the same defense that got them into a winning position.
Everyone and their dog knew that as soon as we scored that touchdown Manning would drive down the field in just a few seconds.
Blitzing was the only decent defense against Manning. He’s old and he doesn’t want to get hit. That forces him into rushing his passes. Going to a prevent just gives him time to hit his targets. We could put 20 guys back and it wouldn’t make any difference as long as Manning has time.
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I just wish the media would quit referring to it as a " miracle " win by the Broncos. It’s not a miracle when one team has a win sewn up, then their brains turn to mush and they gift wrap the " W " for the other team.
I guess it’s easier for them to report it as a miracle win, rather than saying the Chiefs went to hell in a handbasket, their brains turned to mush and they pissed it away.
MIRACLE it is!!
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It’s the do-gooder way of masking obvious negative fault on one side. So… Denver pulled off a miraculous comeback. Right… right… 11 of us in here could have held onto that game for OT. I’m old, but I can still bend over and snap you the ball so you can fall to one knee.
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@drgnslayr I think he should have knelt it, but at the same time, a vanilla play call that allows your best player to at least touch the ball isn’t going crazy. He didn’t attempt a hook and latter or something absurd. He definitely shouldn’t be crucified for it.
And the reason behind prevent defense- The point of the pass prevent is to only allow a field goal. We give space underneath and allow for easy shorter completions. As the field shrinks, the harder it becomes to find an open receiver because there is far less ground for each player to cover. Ideally it wastes time and makes it extremely hard to throw a TD in the redzone.
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@drgnslayr Honestly, we’ve been hearing so many conspiracy theories about KU football lately it makes me wonder about the Chiefs. Can a whole TEAM of coaches really be that stupid? I have to give it to KC - when they lose, they lose REALLY stupid.
Something to talk about at the water cooler the next day, I guess.
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@Kcmatt7 I’ve heard it said many times (and I believe it) that the only thing the “prevent” defense accomplishes is preventing a win. I’m not just talking about last night’s game, but how many times have you seen a team lose after having a 15-30 point lead? Play the way that got you the big lead in the first place.
If I were a head coach in any sport, I honestly think I’d be hated worse than Calipari - BECAUSE - I like to win. Period. Let’s say it’s basketball - my job as a coach is to get wins. My players are to put the ball in the basket on offense and to NOT allow the ball in the basket on defense. If we all do our jobs, we’re going to beat the living crap out of a lot of people. I would play the 2nd and 3rd teams (or whatever the rotation happens to be) after we get no less than a 40 point lead. If the lead dropped to 20 - back in goes the first team.
A “prevent” defense in any sport is a cop out.
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Your post gave me an idea…
Why don’t we swap stadiums with the Chiefs? After their debacle they will be lucky to fill Memorial Stadium. KU, on the other hand, is about to someday finally win another game which will EXPLODE positive energy from fans creating a vortex of fans draining into a stadium in hopes they can experience the rare treat for themselves.
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@JayHawkFanToo I personally don’t think every other team would have just taken a knee. KC had a time out and only had 50 yards to go to get in field goal range.
I personally like running a draw there. Sometimes you pop it for 20 yards based on the nature of the defense being played (deep protect – many times quarters coverage). Such a play would have you out to your own 40. Then you can decide to call the timeout and then attack with passing if it made sense. It’s really the best option balancing between safety and not just conceding overtime at that stage. Going say 50 yards in 36 seconds to get in field goal range is realistic, particularly if you hit the draw for a big gain (and you have a time out). And the draw is a safe way (usually) to start the drive.
Obviously, though, in hindsight, they’d change what they did and just take a knee. It would certainly have helped if Charles, when he saw that there was no gap to get through, would have covered up and protected the ball.
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@HighEliteMajor I would sound even more stupid than usual to complain about Jamaal Charles as a pro running back, but I’m pretty sure he led the nation (possibly the Universe) in fumbles when he was at Texas. He was nowhere near as reliable with his hands and he was with his feet.
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@drgnslayr hmmmm. You REALLY think we’ll win another game some day?
I love your " glass half full " optimism!!
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“A “prevent” defense in any sport is a cop out.”
I agree. It is an action showing how little confidence they have in the play that got them into a winning position.
Regardless what defense is played… if a team blows a lead the coach will get criticized for not playing it the other way. That is what I’m doing here with my complaint about not taking a knee.
I did it all to make a point about knowing when to “play by the book” and when to play creative ball. Yes, it is easy to drive from the back seat in retrospect. But I will go on record to play the knee or throw down the field far enough for it to almost be like a punt. And quite playing that awful prevent defense. It is a sure way to lose.
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@drgnslayr It’s almost laughable (in that laughable way that makes you want to cry…)
I can hear the coaches huddled up now:
“Well, we’ve been beating the living crap out of these guys for (time depends on the sport…) so what do you say we TOTALLY change things up and see if we can hang on by a fingernail instead of doing what we’ve been doing and winning by a boatload?”
On Three - Three, Two, One - PREVENT !!!
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Charles is a great back… but he has the reputation for fumbling.
I was already screaming at Reid when he blew the TO that helped setup the next play for Denver… a touchdown pass. Right when they called that TO I said, “we are going to need that TO after Denver ties it up.” All we did was give Denver more time to call the right play.
There are several factors that should have gone into the decision to take a knee.
First… field position. We were not in a safe place on the field if we did lose the ball. Denver already kicked a 54 yd FG. That guy can really kick. A FG beats us just as much as a TD.
Second… since we blew our other TO, we were down to 1 TO. Smith is the worst long-ball passer in the league. Not a single TD to WRs last year. That should say plenty. It wasn’t impossible, but improbable that we move it quick enough to get into FG range with so little time. Not worth the risk when considering WHERE the ball was.
Third… Denver’s defense was playing for the strip. And why shouldn’t they? They risked nothing by tackling the ball at the end.
Fourth… Charles is known to fumble too much. High risk.
The entire situation fit poorly in KCs hands. They don’t typically move the ball quickly down field. So few seconds left with only one TO means they had to play outside their comfort zone in order to gamble on a victory. The situation changes in OT and they don’t have to play against the clock.
Denver and Manning are great at moving the ball with just a few seconds left. We should have known to avoid any extra attempts in that scenario.
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@drgnslayr I just had a question about your second item: It would be extremely difficult to say that he’s the worst long ball passer in the league because I’m fairly confident he’s never thrown a ball over 15 yards. CAN he throw a long ball? My next door neighbor could probably out throw him.
She’s nine.
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It really depend on how you see precedent. Charles had already fumbled on the the red zone before. so you say:
He has already gotten that out of his system and he will not do it again.
…or you say…
He is already fumbled once before so I better not try again.
Charles is known for fumbling so, if he is your best bet under those conditions, then no, I would not have called a play for him in our own red zone, I would call a play for someone less prone to fumbling or I would take the knee. Under the same conditions, most every other team would have taken the knee and taken their chances in overtime…most every analysis and commentary of the game I saw and read afterwards, pretty much said the same thing.
Now, if the Chiefs were behind and needed a field goal to tie or win the approach might be different, but all they had to do was hold on and go to overtime; they had outplayed Denver most of the night and had a decent shot to win it in OT. Taking a knee would have been, IMHO, the proper call.
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The Monday morning quarterbacking is a litle silly on this, but I certainly understand it. If the Chiefs squat on it, and Denver wins the toss and scores a TD and wins, there would be complaints that we weren’t aggressive and didn’t try to win then. Particularly when Manning just shoved a drive up our a** and scored.
The Monday morning quarterbacking would have been just as silly if we had taken a knee and lost under the above scenario.
Doing what the Chiefs did is a reasonable approach to the situation. I agree, Charles is a bit loose with the ball, but not much more than Adrian Peterson, for example. That does create a little more risk. Jamaal fumbles it appx. 1.5% of the time. A stud like Emmitt Smith was like .08% or something close to that. Again, really a slim chance.
Here’s another way to look at it - Putting the ball in your best player’s hands there, is no different than handing the ball to him at the 20 yard line to start overtime. Exact same risk analysis.
With a 1.5% chance of fumbling balanced against the possible overtime chances, it does seem reasonable to take the chance. But that doesn’t mean it’s the only right answer.
But there is no doubt that each of you who now says he should have taken a knee (whether in hindsight or whether you said it at the time) are right. We lost. That is for sure.
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I break it down like this:
OPTIONS:
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Throw down the field - There is risk of interception or fumble, but if you throw it down the field far enough, you are out of the red zone and probably out of FG range if you turn it over. This is the best option for trying a last-second score before possible OT. RISK LEVEL: 2 REWARD LEVEL: 3
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Quarterback to one knee - Very little risk here! RISK LEVEL: .01 REWARD LEVEL: 0
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Run play to Charles - Some risk because Charles has reputation of fumbling and the defense was going to hit at the ball to force a fumble. Even with the most ball-protective RB in the league, there is some risk. Chance that he breaks it for a TD or gets it far enough for a FG, very unlikely. The big problem is if there is a TO, the Broncos are already in FG range. RISK LEVEL: 4 REWARD LEVEL: 1
That is how I look at it… before, during and after the play!
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@drgnslayr Charles fumbles 1.5% of the time. On reward, you don’t need him to break a touchdown. Just a big gain. This is increased when the defense is playing the vaunted prevent to stop the deep ball. Further, he doesn’t need to get far enough for a field goal on one play. Just 20 yards.
Another option is to throw underneath for 20 or so yards because the D is playing back and retreating – that is riskier than the handoff. But more aggressive. Call the timeout. Looking for the same thing the draw might give you.
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@drgnslayr did you play fb?
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I played in junior high first. Then I made the mistake of sitting out my sophomore year in HS, then went out my junior year. Never could get great traction with the coaches probably because I didn’t go out the year before.
My position was defensive end and outside linebacker.
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@HighEliteMajor You seem to know stats, or where to find them very well. That’s not sarcasm, by the way. Do you know, or could you find out (my googler just isn’t working well today…) what the percentage of NFL home teams win in overtime? I’ll bet it’s huge. Probably 80% or higher.
I think our chances would have been very good with 77,000 loud fans in overtime.
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The game was lost on first half play-calling.
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1st down from the 2 yd line–3 pass plays behind the line of scrimmage. The whole defense is within 10 yds of the line of scrimmage, so everyone can close quickly on a completed pass. No advantage for the offense. Minimum of 3 pt giveaway.
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End of 1st half after Denver score-- First play should have been a run. If you get stuffed, you go to the 2min warning and then run out the clock after it. If you get a first down, or close to it, you can try to operate downfield and look to get another score. Instead, 7pt giveaway.
Should have been up 2 scores all through the 2nd half. Instead, give away a game that should have been put away. Not ready for prime time.
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I love the Chefs almost as much as KU Basketball…almost…
Gonna monitor the play calling first hand next Monday…
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@VailHawk get us a win coach!
