EXPERIENCED BACKCOURT RETURNING, good front court taking Shape, come on Jaylen!!!
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I agree on Smart to an extent … in watching Louisville, though, Pitino runs a pretty high paced system as well. Not as constant in pace, but certainly a big chunk of his system. I think that Smart will struggle with the top 15, OAD guys with that system. That’s probably a positive. But I do think he can really compete for the next level of guys.
@jaybate-1.0 – If we lose Ellis, I could see landing Diallo and Thorne. But if Ellis is back, I think we only get one. Diallo decides first. Thorne comes only if Diallo goes elsewhere. Thorne made those comments about wanting to be a starter or in the top 5 … something like that. If I was a betting man, I think Diallo comes here, no Thorne. I’m just dreading the possibility of Self favoring Traylor over Bragg or Diallo, or Lucas for that matter.
On Thorne, I did look at his stats. He is big, but his stats say that he’s nothing to get excited about. The stat that stuck out to me was that he had a very high turnover rate – .094 per minute played. Compare to .059 Ellis, .056 Cliff, .074 Traylor, and .063 Lucas.
Thorne’s rebound rate was .281 per minute, compared to .236 Ellis, .300 Cliff, .182 Traylor (unreal), and .286 Lucas.
However, his points per minute were solidly better than Lucas (.230) or Traylor (.233) at .385. Compare to Ellis .479 and Cliff .404.
What’s pretty obvious there is that Cliff was better than Traylor or Lucas quite easily, and my bet is Diallo will be too – and I think Diallo would outdo Thorne just as easily. It’s just a matter if Self will just play him.
Anytime stats are cited, they just demonstrate why Jamari Traylor should never play another minute in a Kansas uniform. We’ve talked about addition by subtraction … that would be a big addition if Traylor were subtracted. As Michael Corleone said in the Godfather, “It’s not personal, it’s strictly business” –
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I stand corrected on Stumpy. Thanks for making me think. I needed to, because I was way off.
Stumpy did much better at Xavier than I recalled.
So let’s explore this some more. Why? Because Stumpy went to the Pac 12 and dominated it with his apparent Nike Stack. And now Shaka is going to Texas to get his own Nike Stack. Should we expect some thing more, or less dangerous in Shaka, that Stumpy?
STUMPY TOOK OVER FOR THAD MATTA, WHO HAD BUILT XAVIER INTO A STRONG MID MAJOR. SHAKA TOOK OVER FOR ANTHONY GRANT, WHO HAD BUILT UP VCU INTO A STRONG MID MAJOR. Call this even.
STUMPY MADE THE TOURNAMENT 4 OF 5 SEASONS. SHAKA MADE THE TOURNAMENT 5 OF 6 SEASONS. This is pretty close, but a slight edge to Shaka.
OVERALL WINS-STUMPY 72%, WHILE XAVIER. OVERALL WINS-SHAKA WON 74%, WHILE AT VCU. Slight edge to Shaka.
CONFERENCE WINS-STUMPY 71% CONFERENCE WINS-SHAKA 71% Tie.
STUMPY’S CONFERENCE FINISHES: 1ST-3, 2RD-1, 7TH-1 SHAKA’S CONFERENCE FINISHES: 2RD-3, 4TH-2, 5TH-1 This favors Stumpy, but you and I are the only ones that put much stock in conference titles. Still we do, and Stumpy holds a sharp edge.
STUMPY NCAA EXITS: 64, 32, 8, 16. SHAKA NCAA EXITS: 4, 32, 32, 64, 64 This cuts both ways. Shaka went deeper and made more tournaments, but seemed to be trending bad. Stumpy’s average finish was better and his trend was slightly positive. This is hard not a clear call IMHO, because everyone says the Madness is a crap shoot the depends heavily on your match-ups. I can’t recall which coach got the easier match ups most seasons, so I have just have to side with going deeper and more often, but can see your favoring higher average finish.
YOUNGER COACH TO 100 WINS: Shaka–only Brad Stevens beat Shaka to 100 wins younger. Edge Shaka.
CONFERENCE DIFFICULTY FACTOR: Xavier is in the A-10. VCU was in the CAA 3 of Shaka’s seasons and in the A-10 3 of his seasons. Shaka did similarly in both conferences, so I am going to rate the conferences similarly. Stumpy got to face the same teams all five years. Shaka had to adapt to a new conference. It seems like Shaka faced the greater difficulty factor. Edge Shaka.
HEAD TO HEAD FACTOR: They played in the same conference three seasons and Stumpy finished higher all three seasons. Edge Stumpy.
SCORE: Shaka 4 Stumpy: 2 Ties: 2
ADJUSTED SCORE: Shaka 2 Stumpy 2 Ties: 4
This ranking of mine suggests Shaka was a little better, but there were two categories that were pretty tough to call, and could be argued even. Either way, this analysis suggests we have something to be concerned about, if the dump trucks start backing up to Austin for Shaka, the way they did for Stumpy.
At the same time, Stumpy entered the Pac12 when UCLA was down and none of the other programs were dominant; thus, Stumpy didn’t have much to over come when he got on his run of Pac 12 titles. In contrast, Shaka is coming into a B12 long dominated by a very vigorous national power: KU. Still, dump trucks are dump trucks.
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@Lulufulu Ingram mentioned at the McDs AA that Bragg is working him hard.
I’d be ecstatic with Diallo, Thorne, and Ingram…HUGE
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@JayHawkFanToo Okay FanToo, here’s my take on Stumpy. 1) Don’t like him, 2) His record with stacked OADs at AZ tells me he’s mediocre in that pitiful PAC. Why he should be whipping others in his conference & NCAA with Nike’s help IF he’s good of a coach as you say he is - think he was hungrier at Xavier & had to work hard for wins. His weight at AZ tells me he’s not so hungry but being fed too well. 3) Don’t have proof but whatever he did with Tarc, left a bitter taste - my gut tells something fishy, and 4) He’s got that same face as K, and that OSU coach. For what’s worth, this is all subjective - no data no facts - just my eye balls & guts speaking.
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A couple of thing to consider. Smart has not won a single conference title in either the Colonial or the A-10 where coaches are familiar with his style of play and know how to play against it. While the A-10 is a decent conference the Colonial is really not, Miller’s record is in in the A-10 and the PAC-12, a tougher conference than the Colonial. No doubt Miller’s record is against better competition than Smart’s.
Here is recent ranking of coaches and Miller is ahead of Smart, 10 and 12.
Here is the ESPN ranking where Miller is ranked ahead.
I have looked at several others and invariably Miller is ranked ahead of Smart. We will soon find out if Smart can win in a top conference; Miller, on the other hand, has won titles in both the A-10 and the Pac-12. Like I said, his style of play can be effective but has a ceiling and players with NBA aspirations will not want to play in that system since it is not one that prepares you for the League; my guess is that Texas will be a middle of the pack team in the conference. Like I said, we will find out soon enough.
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I don’t like Cal either or what he has done to the sport but regardless of how I feel personally, I will not say he is a poor coach. We are all entitled to our own opinions and our own biases.
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Your right about Traylor, its going to take getting a Diallo or Thorne to remove him from the 20 minutes he got last year. And if we somehow whiff on both well then expect a lot of painful moments yet again watching Traylor. Love the kid, but we can’t ride another year with him if his role is the same.
A few interesting developments in the recruiting of Diallo & Thorne
Kentucky’s main recruiter of Diallo jumped to St. Johns. Really suspect move no matter Slice’s friendship with Mullin. St Johns still offers the most immediate playing time but if he cares about winning or actually developing he comes to KU. A lot of things have shifted in his recruiting the last few weeks which we haven’t seen with any other prospect still left. Will it take Ellis leaving to seal the deal with Diallo?
Calipari interested in Thorne. All it took was a phone-call for Thorne to now say “I might take a visit there” after the KU visit. We can’t even recruit a transfer without his nose getting into it.
Makes you think Cal isn’t that certain to get any of these remaining pre-Madonna’s except Newman. His chucking 1 year act will be in a Wildcat uni soon.
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@JayHawkFanToo Good points, but if Smart had about the same winning percentage in the CAA and the MAC, the MAC and CAA have to be quite comparable–certainly no sharp edge to MAC.
Second, Stumpy’s ranked higher, but just slightly, because of him getting to a major with dump trucks several years sooner… There is some time series effect that has to be indexed for. Give Smart the same dump trucks and 5 years of dumping, and he is likely to be ranked higher. If Smart were to rank just a little higher in 5 years, he would equal Stumpy. With dump trucks, he could be much higher.
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The latest on Brown.
Had an interview where he squashed the rumor he would sign with an Adidas school. Might still happen but he came out and said it as soon as he was asked about his recruiting.
Said he grew up with UNC being his dream school. You would have to think Tokoto’s decision whether to stay in the draft or not is going to have huge sway with him. That would basically open up the position to him.
Swanigan blew the package deal to Cal, they are out.
If Levert returns to Michigan, will sway his interest in them Kentucky has glaring need for Brown, and anytime he’s spoken of them he’s said that’s the place to go if he wants to be OAD.
Should know more as the week goes if he cuts his list down.
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Are we getting excited for more OAD’s to potentially come to KU? I mean I guess we need some more players, well, not I guess, we do need some sizable players, but if some of these guys are not OAD’s, then sign me up. If not, we’ve got to break out of this cycle one way or the other, and it might as well start now.
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@BeddieKU23 the thing is, it wasn’t a rumor… it was a direct quote from words that came right out of his mouth. I think this may be some backpedaling to rebuild confidence into the non-adidas schools that they haven’t been wasting their time recruiting him. I can imagine that any non-adidas school would have been upset to hear that and questioned him about the comment. To do some damage control, it makes sense to retract the statement publicly.
A big thing for these elite level athletes is building their brand. It seems like a good way to do that is to keep as many big name schools interested in you as possible, for as long as possible, even if you already have your decision made in your mind. That keeps the big fan bases for each of these big schools talking about you, reading about you, awaiting news, etc. It builds popularity. I appreciate Brown’s honesty in his first interview and I’m not buying that he has since changed his mind about that. It also ties back into Rick Pitino’s comments about recruiting the right kids. You could save yourself a lot of effort if you aren’t an adidas school and knew that Brown had very strong ties to adidas already that would be hard to break.
Quasi Hypothetical Example: KU and Duke share two common bigtime recruiting targets, say Jones and Okafor. KU thinks they still have a chance at both so they divide their efforts 50/50 towards trying to get them. Jones already knows he is going to Duke and so does Coach K so Duke can focus 100% of their effort towards Okafor. In addition, Jones can accompany Okafor on his official visit to KU and be in his ear the whole time about everything. Maybe downplay some of the positives but making sure to point out things Duke has that are better, maybe try to massage the visit so it isn’t as good as it could be, who knows how far it could go. The difference in recruiting efforts alone between KU and Duke could have been the difference needed to get his commitment. Not only does Duke win the recruit over KU, but Jones builds his brand by staying in the news as long as possible. We all know how this story ends.
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@wissoxfan83
There really isn’t any non OAD types left. Those ships have already sailed and signed. You’d have to wait until 2016 to find a shift but Self has been out watching Giles, Jackson, Fox, Ferguson all top 15 players. So its unlikely we are going back to recruiting 4 year players.
What’s left is the cream of the crop, and likely the 1 year experiments.
For KU to be great next year it needs Diallo. Basically the whole roster is a year older which is great but with only Bragg signed we are not magically a better team. Offensively Diallo isn’t a OAD but that’s my stance on him. Others believe his ranking says OAD which I’m not arguing.
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You make some valid points.
I thought it was interesting that Brown specifically said his statement on Adidas was a misquote and said it without being asked specifically about it.
Brown is stringing along teams as well. He’s not going to Georgia or Georgia Tech. Cal is out of the question. Why not just tell everyone that.
The Jones/Okafor point you make is a good one. Right now Self is out recruiting Harry Giles & Jackson, 2 of the top 3 players in the 16 class. I believe he’s wasting his time. There’s absolutely no way either is coming to KU, even though we made the initial cuts for both. They might tell Self they are interested just enough to keep us in the top 5 or 7 but playing 2nd fiddle to their real favorite. At least Tatum did the right thing in saying he wasn’t going to waste coaches time for those schools he wasn’t seriously considering.
We could have been watching the Houston Hoops with Herard/Bolden or De’Aaron Fox’s team with Vanderbilt from the 17 class. Good talented players who we have realistic chances of getting because their interest in KU has been made known.
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“For KU to be great next year it needs Diallo.” When have we ever been great featuring a OAD? I’ll answer it for you. Never!
I hear what you’re saying that it’s all that’s left for recruiting. But it also dooms us to be having another early exit/how to fix KU/Bill Self is great but…/ discussion next year in March and April.
Now if we can find a couple of OAD’s and convince them that two years is better, well let’s talk! Because the experienced backcourt @jaybate 1.0 referred to is also going to be back for one more go around in 2016-17.
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@wissoxfan83 I’ve been pretty outspoken about my OAD feelings, but let me put things in perspective. This particular guy was not a OAD, only because that’s not the way it worked back then.
WILT.
If we could not win a championship with that guy, there is no single player that is ever going to put us on his back and carry us to basketball glory. And just for the record, no human being will ever convince me that Wilt was not only the best basketball player that ever was/ever will be, he was probably also the best athlete. Ever.
We need Senior leadership. Team players. A basketball family, if you will. BOO to OAD’s.
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I am not sure how the MAC comes into play; maybe you mean the A-10? The A-1o is a much better conference than the Colonial, it is not even close and this the reason why VCU moved to the A-10. The A-10 usually sends 3-4 teams to the tournament while the Colonial only send the automatic qualifier. When a program changes conferences it normally does it to move move up, not down. Just my opinion.
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Danny Manning?
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That supports his argument even more… Manning was a 4-yr player and the big prize came on the last college game he ever played. However… Danny really carried us that year, especially in the finals!
I thought the unibrow prevented us from winning another trophy in 2012.
Think about that for a second… without the unibrow Calipari would still be without a NC. Surely he wouldn’t have received his HOF induction without that. And he might not even still be at Kentucky if he had scored all that talent without ever winning the big prize. Pretty amazing… he has only won it once! Everyone looks at him like he is dominating college basketball. He has probably won more game than anyone else the last 5 years, but he hasn’t even passed Self in March Gold.
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My comment was in response to this statement:
"there is no single player that is ever going to put us on his back and carry us to basketball glory. "
Danny did…and yes, I am aware that he was 4 year player like all of them were back then. The closes for a OAD is the Unibrow at Kentucky…and he had a very good supporting cast.
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@JayHawkFanToo Danny’s probably as close as it comes, but I was talking about the one & done’s. The only one I can think of that ever did it was Carmelo Anthony. I’m sure you remember him…
Generally speaking OAD’s are good for the OAD’s, nobody else. Make a name, get a lot of PR, get a big fat NBA paycheck, do nothing for the school that you attended for a few months. Buh Bye.
Actually, I’m glad you brought up Danny Manning. Right now, his jersey’s hanging in the rafters, along with the NC banner that he brought us. He is one of the most revered Jayhawks of all time. How do you suppose he’d be remembered if he left after his freshman year. That was, what - 30 years ago? I absolutely would have no recollection of him.
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Dang Nuleaf…you had to bring up Carmelo after the KU-Arizona posts? This is one punch to the gut and one to the mouth of every KU fan…
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@JayHawkFanToo We might as well air out ALL our dirty laundry at one time…
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To me the posterchild for OAD’s winning a championship, and it’s a thin list, is Carmelo. I forget who he beat
He carried that team, aided by Macnamara’s hot shooting that night. They played excellent FT defense on us too.
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@wissoxfan83 Best FT defense in collegiate history…
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You could call Wilt a 20,000 and done.
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MAC is my erroneous reference.
Shaka coached in both the CAA and the A-10. He achieved equivalent winning percentages in each after three years in each.
It shows that the lightly regarded CAA and the better respected A-10 are in reality equivalent conferences and that the probable reasons for the greater number of A-10 teams making it into the Madness is seeding bias.
When a program changes conferences it moves up to a conference that gets it more money and a better chance at admission into events like the Madness.
But the beauty of this comparison is that it exposes that conferences the pay more to members and get seeding bias are not necessarily better.
Shaka’s equivalent winning percentage evidences it.
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Nice move Brown.
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@wissoxfan83
We don’t need to feature him we have 4 or 5 other players that would average more points then him because at this moment you can’t throw him the ball and say go get em diallo. I think the success rate would be low right now but who knows what 4 to 5 months of being on campus would do for him. He’s learned a lot in a short time like Embiid did.
We do need him for all the intangibles he brings. Bragg won’t be the defensive presence we need but offensively he will help from the start. Whatever we can do to limit traylor from 20 minutes a game I’m all for. We need either a starting 5 or a 4/5 combo to go with Lucas.
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I don’t agree that the Colonial and the A-10 are comparable; it is not even close. What you are saying is that if Smart wins 70% of his games in the Big 12, then the Big 12 and the Colonial are comparable? I don’t think so. In the A-10 Smart simply got better players befitting the better conference and thus his percentage stayed basically the same; in the Big 12 he will get better players at Texas and his record will likely stay around 70%. The A-10 is consistently ranked in the 6-8 range and sends 3-4 teams to the dance every year while the Colonial is more in the 16-20 range and only send the automatic qualifier.
Here is a conference ranking for last season…
And here is one for the previous years. You can check previous years and records against top 25 and top 50 and you will see that this two conferences are not comparable, no way, no how, no ma’am.
