Kansas OAD Info...
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Here is a helpful link showing NBA draft scale. Only the first round draft choices get a guarantee. Interesting what it said about agents and the risks they take. The players are very reliant on having a good agent because if they go in the first round, the agent’s ability determines their salary between the scale rate of 80 to 120%. If the player goes after the first round, it is all in the agent’s hands to get anything at all (especially a guarantee) for the player. Agents pick up all preparation costs, and that can add up quickly. Kind of makes you wonder if bad agents even want to spend a dime on players before the draft.
The Structure of NBA Rookie Contracts
If we look back at our recent OADs… Henry, Selby, Wiggins and Embiid… it looks like everyone except Selby got something reasonable out of leaving early.
This same model is valuable in understanding ALL players that leave early, not just OADs. For example, the twins both scored decent cake on their early KU exit.
“Only a few agents still charge fees for negotiating a rookie contract since the first-round salaries are required to be no less than 80% of the salary scale number, and no greater than 120%."
I’m guessing a lot of the young OAD players are just looking at that #30 draft spot and thinking it is the “worst case scenario” and they are satisfied knowing they will get somewhere between $800,000 up to $1.15m for turning pro.
Even though I’m unhappy Kelly is leaving, how much of a chance is there that he doesn’t go 1 thru 30 in the draft?
What about those kids drafted after #30? How many of those kids sign a contract? Guarantees? It must feel like “bait and switch” for these unfortunate players. The line is drawn in the sand (actually, carved in the hardwoods) and if you end up on the wrong side of the line your ability to earn a living in the league starts shrinking dramatically. Players like Josh Selby can go to Superman Camps and improve their game, but finding an inland path to signing a contract is very very difficult.
This system doesn’t seem fair at all. Especially since it is aimed at players so young. Most of these kids have never made a single dollar in their lives before (outside of their scholarship stipend), so how much is $800,000 to one of these kids? I bet they think they can retire on it. Did anyone tell them this is pre-tax numbers? And what is the cost of living in a major city? Entourage fees? Family members with their hands out? Expected style of living perspective from being in the league? Lexus? New expensive girlfriend?
I’m pretty sure a salary of $800,000 is the very basic salary needed just to make it through a year of basketball in the league. And when all that money is gone, and the kids don’t sign the important contract (contract #2) how are they going to keep up on the payments for all that baggage they picked up in such a short period?
I just hope the first thing a guy like Kelly does when the check clears is he buys his dad a house. A cash purchase. So if he blows the rest of it and doesn’t score a second contract at least him and his dad have something from all of this.
European basketball helps a few more players, but not as many as you think.
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I looked at Brandon Ingram’s twitter 2 days ago and FWIW there WERE 3 KU players following him then and now I think there are 7 of our guys following him.
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@Statmachine interesting stuff! Notice any uptick from players from the other front-running teams?
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@SoftballDad2011 I didn’t look at that 2 days ago so I would have nothing to compare it to.
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and FWIW our guys aren’t following ANY of the other guys HCBS is recruiting as heavily as Ingram. One of our commits Bragg has fewer current KU players following him. I would Imagine something’s going down real soon.
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@Statmachine interesting. an indication of who the team is hoping for?
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Malik Newman 2 KU followers. Jaylen Brown 3 KU followers. Thon Maker 1 KU follower. Stephen Zimmerman 3 KU followers. Cheick Diallo 4 KU followers. Brandon Ingram 7 KU followers. Carlton Bragg 5 KU followers.
This is current and former KU alumni that I follow. Like I said when I checked Ingram out 2 days ago Ingram had maybe 3 KU followers. I feel a commit coming.
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When the next call goes out for cyber intel guys by Uncle Sam, answer it. Intel is about using the obvious in unintended ways. BRILLIANT redirect of Twitter. If you don’t want to make a career of it, if you want to work gratis for the greater glory of The KU Basketball Legacy, see Special Agent @VailHawk and he will give you our secret hand shake and secret cocktail we use to identify ourselves behind our nose glasses at bars around the world.
Best regards,
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Basketball Intelligence Agency
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I already work for Uncle Sam in the intel field.
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@Statmachine oh crap, our covers are blown!
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I think HCBS knows he has Thorne in the bag and is looking for Ingram now. I don’t know if you guys follow this but Ingram has grown 2 inches this winter and is now 6ft 9in. He is skin and bones though. He looks extremely fragile. He needs Hudy in a bad way!
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I would prefer Brown or Newman to Ingram. Ingram cannot create his own shot as well, so he will be dependent on Frank or Devonte to do that for him. That bogged the offense down this year.
We need a creative wing scorer, so that’s either Newman or Brown of the elite players left. Ingram is a decent fallback, but the preference is for a scorer.
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@Statmachine I’ve noticed Cliff is also following Ingram, what do you make of that? Do you think he’s trying to make things right w/ncaa so he can come back? Possible? Does Self want him back? Do we? Crazy, yes!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Cliff is actually following ALL of them and has been for a while. I don’t think that Cliff Following him means anything personally. Another BIG factor is Ingram is adidas. The other BIG one is that Ingram followed a lot of KU players on Twitter yesterday.
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@Statmachine you didn’t answer my Cliff questions, what do you think?
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I also had said that Ingram did an interview with the McDonalds game this week and said that Bragg was doing the best job recruiting him!
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Ingram has been dropping KU hints all week. Bragg has recruited him the best, he loved his visit on Late night. He was honest that he would have committed to UNC had the scandal not been there. But now that Jackson is staying they have a crowded back-court. I still think its a 3 team race between KU, UK & Duke. Duke has the playing time with Winslow top 5 potential pick now.
Between the 2 (Ingram & Brown) Ingram is the better shooter but is a strength coach away from really taking off. His handles need work too. He’s a more athletic Greene. Brown is an athletic freak who can get buckets at the basket at will, his defense will translate and has a high b-ball IQ. His jump shot needs improvement but he can make outside shots.
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I think Cliff has no choice but to try to come back and improve his draft stock. If the NCAA clears him before the time is up to declare for the draft he stays. If the NCAA drag their feet then he will be forced to take his chances in the draft or sit out a year and make his NBA dreams just that A DREAM.
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But you have to think he has a limited timeline for deciding doesn’t he? If the NCAA makes no ruling soon and he comes back and is punished isn’t that risking it. Right now he’s probably slid to the bottom of first round/2nd round so he could still get guaranteed money. What if he gets suspended 9 or more games. Would be a waste of coming back if he can go develop in the league.
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@Statmachine does that effect recruiting? You want him to stay? I don’t know what I think about him.
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Ingram to KU would be a major coup…
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2nd year Cliff is better than any OAD! I want him here more than ANY OAD! If Cliff is cleared we should ALL want him here. If he were to get 34 mpg next year he would be a monster! 15pts 10reb or more. Can you say T-Rob 2.0?
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@Statmachine agreed…as long as we are assured immunity from the NCAA that nothing from this fiasco could come back and bite us on down the road. That risk is the only thing that scares me about him coming back.
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@Statmachine I could see TRobs motor his first year, didn’t see that w/Cliff. I think he’s a long way from being compared to TRob! I think in most cases a 2nd year is always better.
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@SoftballDad2011 wish they would decide!
