How's this season going to end?
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It’s all about the match ups in the tourney.
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@wissoxfan83 First, never give up on the Jayhawks. Your a KU fan, you should know better. But I have to take ownership of the fact I said that KU wasnt a sweet 16 team at one point. Now I believe a sweet 16 finish is very well within our grasp. And, I would be cool with that. I think thats respectable especially if KU wins the big 12 tourney on top of it.
Second, its outside in that is working so well for them right now, not inside out. ALthough I did see a couple sets played inside out during the ISU game, just to keep Freddy on his toes about what KU was going to run.
I just hope we can win the conference right now. Im not to worried about the big tourney yet.
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@Lulufulu I never gave up. My post, I think it was after the Kentucky game was titled “I Quit”. I outlined all of the reasons I quit. At the end I wrote, “See you all next game!” No, I’m too invested in this crazy fandom to ever give up!
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As the season is playing out, I’m seeing some really good characteristics… number one being that this team is winning a lot of tough games.
I’m starting to believe we will at least show well enough to get to the Sweet 16 and beyond that anything is possible!
I think it will take a really good team playing well to beat us in March. I don’t see the flukey upset coming from a Mo Valley team this year!
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Self has been feeling his way along this season. He has effectively admitted it a couple of times now.
But at the same time once each season for the last two and this one–basically since he began his midlife crisis and passed through it–he has repeated this for whomever would listen. To paraphrase: I used to spend way too much time on things that did not matter to winning. I am focusing more and more on what matters.
This has been the voice of a gregarious control freak overwhelmed with the search through minutia trying to explain early exits and concluding that a search for elegance is the only answer.
The search for elegance is always what separates the clones of their teachers from the self actualized.
This is the sign of a great mind begining a voyage of discovering the final level in his profession.
Achieve elegance in your thinking and your living and you can deal with the complexity of anything.
Self has reduced the game to creating leads and defending them.
Its why there are so many close games.
Its why occassionally there games that he crafts big leads all the way to the end.
Teams that can score a bushel in a hurry require one to keep building a lead to within 3-5 minutes of the end.
Teams that cannot score in bushels require only a 10-15 point lead that can be defended the rest of the game, always with ten to go, often from half time and sometimes the last ten minutes of the first half.
For our Magister Ludi, teams that cannot score are games to practice defending the lead against teams that can score.
Self has refined the game.
The reason he was up so late working on the game plan for ISU was the game was vital to win. He was not building a complicated plan at all. He was up late trying to build and elegant game plan, one that involved putting Fred in a straight jacket of no running ASAP.
Self knew the inside out would not produce points. He did not care about building a lead. He was putting Fred in the straight jacket of no running. Once the jacket was on Fred, from then on it was just a matter of building a lead with trey balling and using a lot of bench to keep the trey baller’s legs fresh for the second half.
The reason he was up late was because he had to anticipate different ways to slip the straight jacket on Fred. Each way Fred might have started the game had to be considered, so the straight jacket could be slipped on and fit properly.
The three balling is what you do once the strait jacket is on. It is a defensive straight jacket. But just as defense starts offense, offense starts defense; this the part Self always leaves out intentionally. You never give away your secrets as a magician.
OFFENSE STARTS WITH DEFENSE.
DEFENSE STARTS WITH OFFENSE.
BASKETBALL IS THE MOST TIGHTLY CIRCULAR OF TEAM SPORTS.
ITS CIRCULARITY IS ITS ELEGANCE.
Plug into the elegant circularity elegantly and you are Magister Ludi.
How do you win?
By leading at the end.
How do you do you lead at the end?
By building a lead before the end.
How do you build a lead?
By shooting a higher PPP than the opponent.
How do you build a higher PPP?
By taking more open and more productive shots?
By making the other team take less open, less productive shots.
How big of a lead do you need?
The smallest amount that can shrink to a one point lead in the remaining possessions when you stretch out the length of possession, shoot the worst you reasonably will, and they shoot the best they probably will.
Basketball is not about winning big.
It is not about being the best you can be.
It is about working to get just enough better that you can win by 1 against anyone you will play.
All that matters is winning by one point.
A greater winnning margin is wasteful–and waste is inelegant. It means you did not properly defend the lead by spending the lead and reducing possessions.
A one point win is the greatest elegance.
As Self said early this season what difference does it make if you beat some one 100 to 80, or 70-50.
He was pointing to what the game was beginning to mean to mean to him.
Scoring margin is all that matters.
The least scoring margin is the most elegant, if you managed the game to achieve it.
This is the elegance that Bill Self is moving toward.
Bigger scoring margins are insurance.
But how much insurance does one need?
Just enough.
So while a 1 point winning margin is perfect elegance, it does not account for insurance risk. A five point lead against average teams is plenty. Against great trey shooting teams you may want a 10 or 15 point policy.
Its all risk managemen
If you have studied insurance risk and investment analysis and project feasibility, Self’s quest for elegance fits, makes perfect sense.
Look at the rules of the game. You get a win, or a loss, whether you win by 100, or by 10, or lose by 10, or a hundred.
You get a win, or a loss, whether the score is in 20s, 50s, 70s, or 90s.
Self says he used to think to much about things that weren’t apart of winning.
Notice, he no longer talks about put your boot down on someone’s neck and finishing them off.
He has stopped thinking about that because you get a W, whether you step down on their necks, or not.
All that matters now is bringing energy, aggressiveness, skill, and intelligence. These are what build leads. These are what defend leads.
Self has gone back to the roots of the game.
I already noted earlier in the season that he had gone back to Allen to dust of "you don’t beat opponents, you play to help them beat themselves.’ That is elegance.
But he has gone back to Iba for building leads and defending leads, and making all decisions be about getting the minimum lead needed to defend for a 1 point win wih 4 insurance points.
The bigger the lead you build and the sooner you can start shortening the game–start defending that lead.
But it works at the beginning too. The longer you can stay even with an opponent stretching out early possessions and making him stretch his early possessions out, the shorter the game is, and the shorter the game is, then the less lead you need to build, and the less time you have to defend it.
Basketball exists spatially on X ,Y and Z axes as @drgnslayr says. X is end to end. Y is up and down. Z is side to side. These are the 3 dimensions of space. Most coaches coach on those axes. They draw up neat Xs and Os to play out on these axes. They are the visible dimensions. Fred Hoiberg is very good scheming on these axes. As @drgnslayr notes, Fred is doing something brilliant there, something Self is studying and learning from. He is introducing a professional style of motion and use of space on the X , Y and Z axes. It was a new thing to Self from the moment Fred got to Ames. But now Self has largely learned how to guard it, and learned how to use it in his offense.
But Fred is getting an education from Self and Fred is struggling with it. Fred is a spatial guy, like Self used to be–before the quest for elegance took Self onto the T-axis–time.
The T-axis is time.
A game has 40 minutes of back and forth through space.
The time is filled with possessions.
The number of possessions of a game are an accordion of time you can scheme on as a coach.
Self shrinks that front end of the game. He builds a lead. He shrinks the back end of the game.
Sometimes builds the lead at the start, then defends it for the first half, then builds it the second half, then defends it. Some time he waits the whole game, then builds it and defends it 3 minutes.
He wins because while everyone else is scheming the spatial part of the game, which Self is scheming within too, Self is scheming on a dimension that only a few of them think is important, and then only at the end of games, and among those, only a few really get the strategic and tactical implications of the accordion effect.
Why don’t they get it yet?
Because they are trying to beat people bad; that’s why.
They are playing the game as if a win by 20 points was worth more than a win by 1 point.
When you think this way, you always compress the accordion to try to get as many points as you can, not the fewest you need.
Many games Self is scheming on the T axis of time almost by himself.
About the only thing opposing coaches think about time is time outs, TV timeouts, and time to go down the stretch–the last five minutes.
Self is playing every minute of every game as if it were an accordion effect.
Fred knows Self is doing this. Fred knows it works. Fred has only beaten Self once, if I recall correctly, and it was at home.
Fred wants to learn what Self is doing–this accordion thing on the T-axis, from opening tip off to the last second of the game. But Fred is all into space. And Self is pulling him out of space and into time, and time in Fred’s experience of basketball is something you try to cram more and more action into, even as you are spreading it out in space. You spread it out to score more.
But Self doesn’t want to score more.
Self wants to score just enough.
Its a spooky concept that Iba apparently thoroughly figured out. He may have even been the first to really work through it.
And Fred is having as much trouble with that concept as Self had buying into outside in–into spreading it out first to attack.
Something great is happening in the synergy of Bill and Fred.
But right now, Self is way ahead on the T axis and caught up on the X and Y.
What has this long meditation to do with OU?
Kruger is an Okie Baller.
If anyone can get directly clued into to what Self is up to its Kruger.
Kruger is smart–as smart as Self in most ways–even wilier in a few. Jack Hartman had a fabulous intellect for scheming guys open, for shaking them loose. Find old tapes of what he did with Walt Frazier. Later tapes of what he did with Mike Evans. Different strokes but all master strokes. Kruger learned that from him.
You’re right, OU is possible loss.
But Self has selected his players, and trained his players and taught his players to play on the T axis, because, quite frankly, his bigs aren’t very good near the basket on the X, Y, or Z axes. So: he has borrowed form Fred and moved his bigs out to where they are good at some things in the X, Y, and Z space–outside in.
But the real game that Self and his players are playing is played on the T axis. And the team’s accordion is played according to a criterion of elegance.
Shrink the game, build a lead, defend a lead by shrinking the rest of the game. Buy just enough insurance.
If Self can pull Kruger out of space and into time the way he pulled Fred, hang another W.
Win out, Jayhawks, win out!!!
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I think we lose 2 of the road games left (more likely WVU and OU). We can lose one more for sure, I think, and still win our 11th. We need to win at either OSU or KSU, not slip at Tech or at home and we’ve got it. I see a #2 seed in the works. We’re all hoping for a final four, but I see, more likely, an elite 8. This team is a year from peaking (of course depending on who leaves). But, who knows. We don’t know how much better the team will get and what type of matchup we get in the tourney.
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@Hawk8086 are you watching WV now? They look nothing like the caliber of teams we faced. But, any given day!
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@Crimsonorblue22 You are right…not tonight. But, for most of the year…they have looked pretty tough. Plus…we play there on Big Monday…everybody is gunning for us. We get everybody’s best shot…at least emotionally…when we play in a hyped road game.
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@Hawk8086 goggle guy from WV is sitting out sick, too.
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@jaybate-1.0 Dude, your philosophical quote about basketball " OFFENSE STARTS WITH DEFENSE.DEFENSE STARTS WITH OFFENSE.BASKETBALL IS THE MOST TIGHTLY CIRCULAR OF TEAM SPORTS.ITS CIRCULARITY IS ITS ELEGANCE."
I totally see that and it makes me think about the monologue Yoda had with Luke in Empire, about the force being around and apart of everything. Basketball IS the best sport. Shall we start calling you Jedi Master Jaybate?
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@Hawk8086 another thought, notice how empty the gym is? AFH would not let the Jayhawks down last night, just crazy how great the fans are!
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@Hawk8086 looks like they are doing much better!!
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@Crimsonorblue22 I hadn’t noticed as I only watched a little when I saw OU was pounding them. The concept of playing at home in a less than full arena is foreign to us.
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Well, I feel 900 years old sometimes!!!
And I’ve got an old Barbour waxed cotton coat with a hood that I could pretend in.
But no, I better stick with just plain old jaybate 1.0.
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@Lulufulu Powerful Jedi is Jaybate…POWERFUL Jedi.
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Many have mentioned This team possibly or probably recieving a 2 seed for the dance. I must say that although its premature at the moment. If this team does in fact win the big12. Especially outright. With the best schedule in the nation. And number 1 rpi. And in the number 1 rpi conference. It will be a travesty in my honest opinion to not recieve a 1 seed.
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@cragarhawk Well thought out. The older I get the more I sandbag.
Bobby Knight made a statement years ago that stuck with me.
2 normally still has to go through # 1. (Or a team that beat them).
Still-# 1 has an easier schedule than # 2.
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@cragarhawk I see your point, and I agree it will be a travesty. Part of the problem is we don’t have the marquee wins, or at least the perceived marquee wins, like a lot of other programs in contention for #1 seeds have. Consider the following teams resumes:
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Kentucky. Obviously the crushing victory over us (as you say, the #1 RPI team). Undefeated. No-brainer.
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Duke. Wins over Wisconsin, Louisville, and previously unbeaten Virginia. Oh, and all those wins were on the road! Resume building games remaining include Notre Dame and 2 games against UNC.
Unless Duke finishes with I’d say…3 or more losses than we do (currently both teams have 3), I’d say they’re a lock along with Kentucky. So that leaves 2 left. Other teams vying for consideration
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Arizona. Wins against Gonzaga and Utah. Only real resume builder left on schedule is return trip to Utah.
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Virginia. Wins against VCU, UNC, Maryland. Can still improve resume with 2 games against Louisville.
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Gonzaga. Weakest of the teams in consideration. No wins against the top 20 RPI. No remaining games against ranked teams. Thank goodness for the loss to Arizona or we might have another Wichita St on our hands - an undefeated team waltzing into the tourney without having played anybody and gifted a #1 seed.
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Villanova. Win over VCU. Nothing great left on their schedule (away games at Georgetown and Butler).
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Wisconsin. Another weak resume. Biggest RPI wins are neutral site wins over Georgetown and Oklahoma back in November. Bad loss against Rutgers.
And here’s our resume:
- Top 20 RPI wins over Utah, Georgetown, ISU, and Baylor. Two games against WVU on schedule, along with OU and and Baylor. No wins against the RPI top 10.
I think the committee will give a #1 seed to either Gonzaga or Arizona and stick them out west. That leaves one remaining #1 seed. Right now I think it’s Virginia’s to lose, with one loss and games against Louisville plus the ACC tourney where they could draw top 20 RPI opponents Duke, Louisville, UNC, and Maryland.
What hurt us is both Michigan St. and Florida having down years. Obviously it didn’t hurt us too much; we are still the #1 team in the RPI. But those wins don’t carry the same luster as they do a lot of other years.
I think if geography was not a factor, we’d be in consideration for the fourth #1 seed. But since it probably is I think we can take the west’s #1 seed out of consideration. Which is fine with me. The last thing I’d want is a repeat of '07, where we were the #1 seed out west and UCLA was the #2 seed, and we essentially played a road game in the elite 8 against the Bruins.
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@jaybate-1.0 Ok. I see you referenced Phog Allen and Iba again now that I finally made it through your whole post
Did you put more thought into which influence Coach Self has taken from more? Or do you think he has taken from both equally?
I ask because coaching styles are a completely new train of thought for me.
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We’re fans, but we are also a bunch of worry warts. I predicted 14-4, and I probably shot too low. So, we win conference, and pull down a 1 seed. We make it to the national championship game, where we beat 'Tucky. I keep hearing how we should be terrified of size, but we beat several large teams already. And we have guards that penetrate, and dish that open that middle right up. We have long range bombers that make the big’ens have to stretch. We look more and more like 2008 every game, imho. The best part is getting almost the whole team back next year. Not bad for a OAD school, eh?
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@jaybate-1.0 A one point win may be elegant, but I’ll take a 20 point win every time–much easier on my heart and blood pressure. I’m sure some of those one point wins have taken years off my life (not as much as losses have). I expect at the end, I will vote that it has been worth it.
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We clearly have the team to make it as far as we want to go.
We have the Point Guard this year that is vital for leadership, scoring, passing, and controlling the game.
We have shooters galore all over the court.
We have depth, and players we can plug in when we need to.
We may lack the inside game but 3 points is more than 2.
We may lack the senior leadership, but we have guys with tournament experience.
We have a hall of fame in waiting coach with a National Championship and countless experience in games.
So what’s in the way of winning it all? Besides the team itself just a little Luck, Matchups, where we play, injuries, momentum. But that’s nothing right? We will know more down the road just how this season is going to end.
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@icthawkfan316 I appreciate your time in this. Thats a very insightful and informative post. You make excellent points. Only 4 spots to give. And maybe too many teams to choose from. Plus the geography issue that I had not considered an issue. Which we all know is an issue in fact. Another thing to consider is that perhaps the B12 is not all that good afterall. A terrific league this year it most definitely is. But how does it really stack up vs the other top leagues/top teams?? Perhaps its just a very equal league of several teams that are top 10-25 caliber? That maybe arent quite ready to play with the top 1-10. This is a very real possibility and I’d say if you trust the “eye test” its most likely close to reality. So I say. Heres hoping that the final 10 to 12 games of this regular Season prepare this team to make that next step. To be able to play with and beat the top 5 teams in the nation.
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I like your summary of teams. I agree obviously with Kentucky already sown up the #1 seed. Duke in my opinion, has as well, although there’s lots of basketball left. What is definitely intriguing are the other 2 #1 seeds.
Of course, I favor the Badgers. Their bad loss to Rutgers was tainted somewhat by Frank Kaminsky missing that game and point guard Jackson broke his ankle in the second half of that game. They failed miserably down the stretch after that happened. But they have been playing beautiful basketball since then. Their D isn’t quite up to its’ normal stout self, but their offense has been amazing. Scores in the 80’s and even 90’s last night show that they have a lot of offensive firepower inside and out. They really could enter the dance with 2 or 3 losses. Not many teams with a record like that are denied #1 seeds.
Virginia has it much tougher but passed a nice test on the road against UNC. They are really a good team.
Of course if our team can maintain it’s current success, they will have a decent shot at having 4 losses maximum entering the tournament as well. Again, like UW, tough to keep a 4 loss team from the dance.
Gonzaga, supposedly really good this year, but that weak schedule.
@BeddieKU23, good post. Those are giving me hope that we can end this season on a positive note.
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@wissoxfan83 I like the Badgers. To me they are probably one of the top 4 teams in the country. They definitely pass the eye test. My only question is will they have a resume befitting of a #1 seed, especially with so many teams currently bunched up around them. Their biggest RPI wins are Oklahoma (RPI #18 ) and Georgetown (RPI #20), and we’ve beaten both of those teams. They do have one more resume builder on their schedule at Maryland, but that’s it for top 25 RPI games (Iowa & Ohio St. are currently ranked in the polls, but Iowa’s RPI is 51 and Ohio St. is 35).
The Badgers have been hurt by a down Big 10 this year. Michigan & Michigan St. are both nowhere near the marquee names on the schedule they have been in recent years. Same with Indiana. Even Ohio St. has dropped down a notch from the top-10 team they were just a couple years ago.
Of course they could very well win out, which with 2 losses it would be difficult to deny them. But Arizona only has two losses and Gonzaga with one loss will probably be the #1 and #2 seeds out west, Virginia with one loss can probably afford another and still be in the driver’s seat. And of course…us with only 3 losses but the #1 RPI and #1 SOS.
So it will probably come down to how those 3 teams finish out the season.
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@icthawkfan316 Great post 316. We are now projected as a #1 by several hopeful bracketeer wannabees but to me a 2 or 3 is most likely. We’ll most likely get another L or 2 before the dance & the anti climactic conf tournament is almost always where we pick up one the day before the pairings. That’s not good timing either. The draws are the secret ingredient to the mix as we all know, as are locations as well & I’m OK with a lower seed long as were not playing in someone’s backyard like your reference to UCLA in 07.
Matchup wise I have to believe that there are several teams with “skiers” (we called bad boys Ski Cats as a kid) that are major potential hazards for our undersized 3 ball, 4 out & one in, rebound challenged, rim-less protected Jayhawks. That reference would not be an allusion to the slopes in the neighborhood of @vailhawk, but the brigades of a Gonzaga with a 7’-0" Karnow-“ski”. Or an Arizona with our sorely missed target Tarczew-“ski”. Or a Wisconsin with a deadly 3 ballin tree named Kamin-“ski.” I don’t mean to sound like Dick the Downer here, but getting lost again in a forest BEFORE we play UK again is my personal greatest apprehension going forward. It’s just that I’ve not forgotten that major ass-whuppin we got from those ridge-runnin baldknobbers from down South.A couple of soft handed bigs (real paint playin bigs) may well have us counting fouls on our toes (nah were Kansas not Kentucky), maybe even before the 2nd half. As HEM has pointed out, Landon is serviceable as a foul backup, but I believe as he does, that our O & D shortcomings in the frontcourt are our Achilles. Not meaning to be so long winded, but thought I’d throw in my nickels’ worth on a quite interesting topic. With all the spin we put out on buckets, can be difficult to maintain in the forefront of thought, one at a time, one at a time…
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Getting to it, but having to go back over a lot of histories to distill it reliably. havent forgotten you. Been through 40-50 coaches dating back to 1900 and sifted lots of irrelevant stuff for occasional nuggets. i know the answer generally but trying to find what I don’t know I don’t know takes time.
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It depend how you define the league as being good or not that good. Look at the other leagues and you will see that in leagues such as the ACC, PAC12 and Big 10, after the top few teams the rest are not that good. Here is a list of the conferences with teams with RPI in the to 50;
- A10 - 4 out of 14 - 29%
- ACC - 5 out of 15 - 33%
- Big 12 - 7 out of 10 - 70%
- Big East 7 out of 10 - 70%
- Big 10 - 5 out of 14 - 36%
- MVC - 2 out of 10 - 20%
- Mountain West - 3 out of 11 - 27%
- PAC 12 - 3 out of 12 - 25%
- SEC - 6 out of 14 - 43%
- West Costs - 1 out of 10 - 10%
No question that the Big 12 is from top to bottom the toughest league with 9 out of 10 teams having received top 25 votes, 8 have been ranked in the top 25 and currently 6 teams are ranked in the top 25. There are no nights off in the Big 12 and any team can beat any other team.
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@cragarhawk I 100% agree with you. The problem is that UK is going to be a 1 seed. At the moment it looks like Gonzaga is going to be a 1 seed as they don’t play a ranked team for the rest of the year. I truly hate that a team who plays Gonzaga’s schedule is even up for a 1 seed but the committee has given them one before so I won’t be surprised if it happens again.
Let’s just say that UK and Gonzaga both go undefeated from here on out. They are 2 of the 1’s. Now you have 2 spots. Wisconsin is certainly looking like a #1. The Big 10 is pretty weak and there may only be 1-2 losses on the rest of their schedule.
Arizona, like Wisconsin plays in a weak conference. If they don’t lose in a pretty big upset they may run the table or worst case for them 1-2 more losses.
Does the winner of the ACC not get a 1? Hell, Duke will probably get a 1 seed even if they don’t win the ACC. Between Notre Dame, Virginia and Duke it is hard to believe none of those teams get a #1 if they win the ACC.
So, I think even though the Big 12 is being billed as “the toughest conference” in the country, I feel that we are going to have to win almost every game for the rest of the year. Maybe drop 1 or 2 games and hope that other teams in the running also lose games.
The fact that UK, Gonzaga, Zona and Wisconsin all have relatively easy schedules for the rest of the year does not help us in any way.
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@jaybate-1.0 Ok Jaybate, no problem man.
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“X is end to end. Y is up and down. Z is side to side.”
Z represents the successful pathway of the ball going through the goal. It is also the successful pathway of shot blocking angles to the ball… and angles on rebounds coming off the rim. And passes being stolen. Dribbles being disrupted.
Z represents the execution of the game. The ball is the center point and creating a graphical pathway. Players can still be attached to the ball as it travels through pathways, or it may be released, in a shot, in a pass, in a throw down…
X is the horizontal pathways of players.
Y is the vertical pathways of players.
Discovering weaknesses and strengths. Plotting points, analyzing potential strategies of executing the Z.
Sticking the ball in the hole!
The art of combining chess, physics and Naismith.
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@drgnslayr Beauty personified in a game invented by a genius.
I also like @jaybate-1.0 's T axis theory.
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Yes, what Self is doing, if I am correct, is very provocative and nerve racking until you get what he is up to, and even then it still makes my palms sweat a bit.
But if you stop and think about, it is less risky than trying to keep making three point baskets playing at a fast pace.
But we are conditioned to think that they way save our selves is to run faster and faster until we escape the peril.
But sometime back in prehistory some cave man figured out that you can run as fast as you can and still not outrun a Cheetah. You can never build up a big enough lead for a cheetah.
So: you have to resort to strategy and tactics. Best not to try t0 outrun a cheetah.
Best to deny it the advantage of its speed.
Self denied ISU the advantage of its speed many ways.
Self denied ISU its great three point shooting skills by reducing the number of possessions…by spending his lead to reduce the number of possessions, even though he knew that doing so would reduce his points per possession, because KU is not such a good team taking its time and scoring inside.
But I am convinced that Self either has guys calculating how many possessions the game can be reduced to and still win, making only 1 PPP, or he uses some heuristics in his head to do the same.
I built a spread sheet a few weeks ago and it is amazing how much reducing total possessions with you scoring only 1 PPP and your opponent scoring 1.25 to 1.50 PPP assures you win.
It is also empowering to think this way as a coach and a player.
You have more control over your defense than you do over your long ball shooting late in a game.
You are more in control of your destiny on defense. You are investing your lead in increasing the probablility of winning.
If you think of it this way, you won’t be stress free, but you will have less stress than if your team is trying to make threes on tired legs late and missing.
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@DoubleDD I’d say Kentucky in 2012 was the wire to wire favorite and they came through.
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@ZIG But not without a damn good fight from the Free Staters !!
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This year’s team reminds me more and more of the 2007 team which was a bit older but not quite as deep maybe. The juniors were Sasha, D-Jackson and Rus Robinson. Fantastic sophomores, J Wright, B Rush, M Chalmers, and great freshman talent in D Arthur and Sherron Collins.
That team lost to UCLA in the Elite Eight, so I’m going to say that this team should reach the same spot, plus or minus one game.
Underachieve: They miss the Sweet 16 Overachieve: The Championship game
In thinking about these scenarios, it’s important to look at the competition and consider who they would match up with along the way, and how durable and immune the team is to the various styles of play they could encounter. This is where it gets a lot more difficult to know where they end up in the tourney.
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I saw this, with the accompanying misleading headline on KUsports.com:
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2015/feb/05/experts-say-ku-final-4-shoo-/
One of the commenters there even accused another poster of being like @jaybate 1.0
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I am not selling this team short (keep in mind, I have stated that I am optimistic to a fault). I say this team makes to to the elite 8 and maybe a final four! Let me break down my overly optimistic view.
What teams have lacked in recent years that led to an early exit:
1.) 2013-14- 3 point shooting, toughness, offensive flow. We saw all three on display against Stanford. They packed the paint and took away our only offense (Wiggins). We were not ready to take on a solid team without size (Embiid’s late injury), and our point was not able to get into the lane and crash the zone.
2.) 2012-13- Lack of point guard play plain and simple. I have never did bash on EJ because of how grateful I was that he waited his turn and he played a huge role in making it to the NC. But he just was not a point guard.
3.) 2011-12- Maturity. Yes I know, we made it to the elite eight. But that was as heart breaking as an early exit. The Morris twins were not models to the under classman, and Taylor was a late bloomer. He was not ready to lead a team.
Now fast forward to this season, we do not have the luxury of the past teams but have the essentials the past teams didn’t:
1.) A point guard whose in control with a bulldog mentality that has a contagious toughness about him. Couple that with the talented young gun in Graham, we are in good hands. No one will be able to do what VCU or Michigan did to us.
2.) 3 point shooting. This one is self-explanatory. We have a zone buster in Greene and all the perimeter players are capable of making open treys.
3.) Opened up offensive system. The offensive doesn’t go completely stagnant when you take away one player. Focus on the perimeter, Ellis will face us and take it to the hole. Double our bigs, dish it out for the trey. And when all else fails, Mason gets in the lane and creates shots for himself and others.
4.) A toughness that has our back up point guard get in the face of the leading scorer for KSU.
We don’t have size but scheming can reduce the effects. We don’t have the awe-inspiring talent but i’ll take toughness in day of the weak. And lastly, this is a new year filled with the unknown. So why not fill it with fill it with the best case scenarios!
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I believe you have the 2011-21012 team confused with the 2010-2011 that featured the last year of the Morris twins. The 2011-2012 team made it to the finals and was runner up to Kentucky
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@wissoxfan83 All right, after a couple days of pondering over what could happen for KU in March and after watching KU destroy ISU at their own game, I have decided to consult my magic 8 ball and look into my magic mirror. What I see is thusly; KU will win the conference championship, and win the conference tourney. How does the selection committee keep KU from a 1 seed if that happens? Either way, we should get the last 1 seed or the first 2 seed. KU is obviously tougher on both ends of the court this year and has more 40% trey gunners than at any time in Coach Self’s whole career. Cliff turns into beast mode giving us a low post presence we havent had since TRob. Coach Self continues to baffle opposing coaches by switching offenses in game from hi lo to lo hi to inside out to outside in. They cant keep up with his genius scheming or KU’s stifling defense. KU becomes very adept at press breaking, having rolled WVU both times. KU makes it to the Elite 8 and wins a squeaker nail biter like the 08 Davidson game to give Coach Self his 3rd final four appearance. Beyond that, the future is murky, my mirror clouded up and my magic 8 ball gave me a “dont count on it”
Serious question here. Regardless of what KU actually does this year, does Coach Self get awarded Coach of the Year for turning this KU team into a legit contender and winning his 11th straight conference championship?
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If KU makes it to the Final Four, I cannot see anyone more deserving that him.
When he wins his 12th Conference Title in a row, he will be awarded “Coach of the Century.”
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This might help us get to rhe Final Week.
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@jayhawkfantoo You are right my friend.
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@JhawkAlum I did a quick very non scientific survey of this post and elite 8 seems to be the conclusion of our fan base.
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@wissoxfan83 Agreed.
If we look a bit deeper into the crystal ball, I wonder what folks think next year will bring?
That team promises to be a bit more seasoned… but much depends on who jumps to the NBA… much like in 2007. While Julian Wright signed with an agent that year, the pivotal moment was when Brandon Rush got hurt in a pickup game and withdrew from the draft.
The rest is history.
Wayne Selden? Kelly Oubre? Cliff Alexander? Brannen Greene? Perry Ellis?
Those guys will play in the league at some point… The timing of their departure will make all the difference.
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@JayHawkFanToo No! I didnt see that one! Thanks! That was really cool.
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@bskeet I can really dig the prophetic reference to 07 and the results the following season, albeit without an injury determining these kids’ fate. History can repeat itself. Rock Chalk !!
