The Selden Factor
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I totally agree with your post. Nothing against Wayne… but he needs to be stirred up to advance. He’s been lagging behind the advancement of other players.
Brannen has been improving his defense. His remaining issue he needs to resolve to consistently get more PT is that he needs to bring consistent energy on defense. He is learning. The carrot has been firmly planted in front of his face, and the carrot has been removed when he doesn’t bring intensity.
Wayne’s biggest issue right now is consistent defense, too. Sure, he gets a SportsCenter block here and there, but his defensive energy has been impacted by his struggle on the other side of the ball. That will get him bench time. It has to. We can’t play effective defense if one guy falls far behind. Everyone in here should look through their file footage of our Big 12 games this year and focus in on Wayne’s defense. Not good! Remove the SportsCenter blocks and give a fair assessment.
One other issue with Wayne… he’s been forcing his offensive impact, and it often creates really horrible results that kill our momentum and jack the momentum of our opponents. What we should learn from last night is how sensitive our team flow is relating to our momentum. This team is Jekyll and Hyde… and it relates to momentum and energy.
HEM, your idea of removing the “entitlement factor” is completely legit. This has always been an issue I’ve had with Self not pushing his veteran players more and giving an opening to guys riding the pine to play a bigger role. This creates a positive competition amongst the team, something we need to push EVERYONE into improvements.
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@RockChalkinTexas Yes, I started a thread “If KU clangs another dunk I’ll…”
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There is an expression that goes…the worst day fishing is better than the best day at the office. I firmly believe that the worst defensive game for Selden is better than the best defensive game for Greene,
I have stated before that Green is perhaps the best pure 3 -point shooter we have seen in at KU in a long time, even better than McLemore. However, Green is also the most one-dimensional player we have seen in while, He has the size and physical attributes to be a top player but he does not have the quickness, reflexes or court savvy in defense to be a contributor and he is instead a liability, and it is not because he is not trying, I truly believes that he tries hard but so far the progress has been slow.
Greene know that his defense is weak. This is from the after the game press conference last night:
On Brannen Greene’s mentality after only playing 8 minutes the previous two games:
"I was fine. I knew what I needed to do; I needed to improve on the defensive end. I’m still working to do that. I’m not a great defensive player but it’s all about improving and that’s what I’m trying to do."
As we all know, Coach Self’s system starts with defense and as long as Greene cannot become at least an average defender, he will remain in the “designated shooter” role.
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@JayHawkFanToo I think he can get better! I saw him not react to a rebound I thought he could get, maybe, maybe not. Instead of being 30 minutes late to wts, he could go 30 minutes early. I guess what I’m trying to say, go harder!
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I think you should be focusing on the direction both players are going.
Wayne is going backwards. Brannen is going forwards. I believe Brannen played better defense last night than Wayne. I saw him challenge several guys’ shots.
Look at the stats. Stats don’t always tell a story, but it certainly does this time.
Wayne had 29 minutes to build his line: 5 pts, 3 rebs, 4 assists, 2 fouls, 1 steal, 2 TOs.
Brannen had 15 minutes (about half of Wayne’s): 12 pts, 2 rebs, 1 assist, 0 fouls, 1 steal, 1 TO.
Brannen also reached the FT line, where Wayne didn’t. Shooting FTs is usually an indication of hustle.
The key is we need more production out of Wayne. How are we going to help push him into more productive games? Usually it seems like bench time is a good motivator. It certainly seemed to help with Cliff.
Imagine if we bring Wayne off the bench against Texas? Might he be encouraged to do what we need him to do (which is to drive the seams of the Texas zone)?
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Wayne is caught up in something very like Brady Morningstar got caught up in–the mother of all slumps.
The difference, of course, is that Wayne has an NBA body, and Brady did not. And this difference means it is MUCH harder to take Wayne off the floor, and so much harder to ruthlessly motivate him with the toughening box and bench time and eventually scrub minutes.
Self has to find an interim, somewhat less draconian approach to bouncing Wayne out of his mother of all slumps. He has already told us what it is: getting Brannen and Svi to pressure him. The trouble has been that until the end of the second half of the OU game, Brannen has not gotten how hard he had to play to be a D1 player. In turn, Brannen could not pressure Wayne for minutes. In turn, Wayne could not be provoked out of his slump.
Slumps are wicked things. The longer they go on the harder they are to reverse. There is a point afterwhich that only the greatest of players can get themselves out of a slump without pressure from a back up.
The point here is not that a coach WANTS to use a back up cruelly on a struggling starter. The point is that at some point ONLY a backup’s pressure can break the vice like jaws of the slump that the starter is in. WAYNE ACTUALLY NEEDS BRANNEN, OR SVI, TO BREAK HIM OUT OF HIS SLUMP BY PRESSURING HIM.
Good players are good competitors, and good competitors are not wounded by competition. They are strengthened by it. Poor competitors, in contrast are crushed by it.
Wayne Selden may be a lot of things, but playing a season on a bad knee for a team that won a conference title and would have gone deep in the Madness but for an injury to Joel Embiid, indicates that Selden IS a very competitive guy.
Brady Morningstar went from be a very capable D1 perimeter player to being utterly incompetant for an extended period. His slump was particularly damaging to his ability to stay on the floor, because his physical abilities were not as great as Wayne’s and so when he slumped, he fell quickly off the razor’s edge of performance he needed to maintain to play at a D1 level. Wayne’s physical abilities are so substantial that he was better on a bad knee than the other options we had. Similarly, his physical abilities are so substantial that he is better in a slump than our other options.
But there are limits to everything. At some point, the slump is so debilitating to one’s overall performance that trade-offs become more feasible among the slumping player and his backup who lacks the same broad spectrum of talents.
To wit, Brannen becomes an option at the end when an outside threat is expedient when down one. And when he produces in the clutch, tolerance of his shortcomings increases, and need for Wayne’s remaining advantages shrinks a little.
Over 40 minutes, a slumping Wayne still holds service, but a trending up Brannen gets more minutes. As happened with Brady, this early rise in minutes by a back up can first worsen a players slump, but in time the player and the slump bottom out and deep knawing doubt that emerged unexpectedly to trap a player in a slump is replaced by something like, “What the hell! Things can’t get any worse. I might as well just go play and forget about trying to end the slump, or not.” It is around this point that a player rediscovers his usual game and begins playing his way back into whatever role his talents permit in conjunction with the progress made by the backup.
Brady never fully recovered full control of his position, because two OADs in succession were thrown up in front of him. But he was such an exceptional glue man that Self always found 25-35 minutes for him in a back up role backing up all three positions on the perimeter.
I don’t foresee Wayne’s situation ever leading to permanent 6th man, like Brady, but Wayne could get worse, before he gets better. Or he could snap out of it right now. The point is it truly is a slump that has come on the heels of lost pop after a nasty knee injury. All knee injuries are nasty. Most fans do not appreciate how hard it is to come back from injuries–not just physically but mentally. Only the most extremely confident and focused and self-possessed of players come back fully from injuries.
Wayne may be going through a process of questioning who he really is as a person and player, when he has had to play through so much adversity as a player these first two seasons, when he was thought to be an OAD.
If he will persevere, he will prevail.
But part of prevailing will be overcoming, probably for the first time in his life, the very real chance that he might not overcome. That probably brings with it a kind of fear he has probably never known, because of his great physcial ability.
But if he can get through it, he will be an order of magnitude stronger at his core and it could make him into a great player down the road.
It all depends on how much pop he has left, and we won’t really have a clear indication of that, until after the slump ends.
Go, Wayne, go!!!
You are in slump.
This is a test of will, not of ability.
But the roles both players have played for their teams are quite similar, even though Wayne glues from the 2 and Brady glued mostly from the 3.
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First we must ask ourselves - what kind of player should Wayne Selden be?
These are the facts:
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Wayne Selden looks like an NBA 2 guard. He’s 6-5, 220 pounds, and that’s not baby fat. He just looks like a basketball player.
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Wayne Selden is a below average shooter from three point range.
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Wayne Selden is an above average passer, particularly for a wing player.
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Wayne Selden is an above average defender that can defend any perimeter spot.
So who should Wayne Selden be?
He’s much more than just a defensive player in the vein of Brady or Travis.
He’s not a Brandon Rush type of player who can get his offense off other’s drives because he’s such a good shooter.
He’s not a specialist.
He’s not such a strong ball handler that you would contemplate a move to the point.
He’s not a number 1 scorer.
Wayne Selden is an enigma in that he is all at once much too talented not to play at all, but not quite good enough at any one thing to truly cement a role.
He can score, but he’s not a scorer per se.
He can shoot, but he’s definitely not a shooter.
He can defend, but I don’t think Bill Self looks at him as a stopper, given that recently when guys have started getting it going, Self has turned to Kelly to bring out the cuffs.
Wayne is a jack of all trades, except that he happens to be mired in a horrendous offensive slump.
So how does he get out of it?
Well first, he needs to prioritize the types of shots he wants to take. Priority one shots are the shots he should always take and never pass up. Priority two shots are shots he should take if he’s open in the flow of the offense. Priority three shots are shots he should take if he’s hot. Priority four shots are ones that he should take only if up against the shot clock.
Priority One - transition layups, dunks and floaters around the rim. Offensive rebound putbacks. If he can get these, take them, and what’s more, look for these types of shots to get himself going, especially early on. Wayne needs to get himself some garbage buckets either on the break or on the offensive glass. I haven’t seen that from him very much this year.
Priority Two - Kick out threes, one dribble pullups, dribble drive layups, dunks and floaters. These are shots Wayne should want, but shouldn’t be forcing. These should happen naturally. Catch a defend in the rotation - can the open three. Have a guy closing out out of control? Blow by him with one hard dribble and nail the 15 footer, or get all the way to the rim for a bucket. All of this should happen organically within the flow of the offense.
Priority Three - Off the dribble threes, one on one drives, post ups. Anything trying to beat a guy one on one is a low priority. Additionally, because Wayne is a natural perimeter player, he shouldn’t be trying to expand his game to the block unless his normal options are already clicking.
Priority Four - Contested jumpers of any flavor.
Wayne should make it a goal to get at least 3 Priority One attempts each game. That means hitting the offensive glass and running the floor in transition to get some easy ones for himself.
This slump is starting to morph into something much more difficult. Time to prioritize and get out of it.
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@HighEliteMajor @drgnslayr @JayHawkFanToo and others regarding Wayne. I’m on record as saying I’d replace quite a few of Selden’s minutes with Graham. While not the giant leap forward offensively that Greene potentially gives (emphasis on potentially. If his 3s aren’t falling, it’s really not a step forward at all), it is an upgrade. And it’s a more diverse offensive option than Greene. Paired with Mason & Oubre, you’d now have all 3 perimeter players capable of putting the ball on the floor to get their own shot to go along with plus outside shooting from all 3 players.
And to those of you concerned about losing Selden’s defense and replacing it with Greene’s, Graham is an upgrade from both. He’s a freshman so there are the occasional lapses, but by and large he’s been the superior on-ball defender to both. And him and Oubre are the best two players on the team at creating turnovers.
And lastly, the kind of no-brainer advantage here is that you get your two best ball handlers in the game.
The only drawback is you lose a bit of height by not going with Wayne or Greene, but where is that really an issue? How many college coaches actually post up their guards? Rarely happens. And having two smaller guards in the backcourt worked out well for the '08 team…
I’ve said before that the backcourt of Graham & Mason can lead us to a title before they leave Lawrence. We talk a lot about Self needing to play Cliff more because he is clearly the best option. With Graham-Selden-Greene, the choice is not as clear. But once you look past the window dressing of Selden’s lofty high school ranking and his NBA body, and once we’re done overreacting to one of Brannen’s better performances, clarity can be achieved.
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@justanotherfan Agree that Selden looks like a NBA 2 guard. But, at the point, I’m not sure the evidence supports that he is simply in a slump. It may be that he is what he is and not what we all expected him to be. Look at the stat lines @Shanghai_RCJH posted above. Other than 2 pt % being down appreciably, his numbers across the board are similar to last year. I assumed that he would explode from last year’s numbers without being the third fiddle to Wigs and Joel. But, with 1 -1/2 seasons behind us, what do we now know - he is a below average jump shooter, he has a below average handle, esp. when getting into the lane (no ability to adjust), he is a weak rebounder for a guard his size, and, while he is a solid not the ball defender, he isn’t lock down and gets beat regularly by faster players I thought/hoped he would be a lean leader and score 15 pts per along with Perry this season. It may be that his knee issues have been a major contributing factor in this lack of overall production, or it may just be that he is a solid complementary player and nothing more. Hope that isn’t the case - but, absent a significant upward trajectory, more of his minutes should go to Graham and Greene - and, maybe his per minute production will improve as a result.
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@icthawkfan316 Your post represents very much the essence of this entire site. We debate, argue, swing to and fro on the Selden/Greene pluses and minuses, then KABOOM!, a thoughtful commentator breaks in with GRAHAM! Lawrence Journal World Sports lost a veritable goldmine of daily attention when it blew off the folk who have moved along to this and other significant sites. I’d much rather read the daily Buckets entries than stay tuned in to LJW and KC Star professional sports reports.
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Wayne Selden Jr. is a starter. He is not going to the Bench. We have ten starters. Everyone is not going to look good every game. Svi can play really good and he is not getting very many chances. His time will come. Greene’s time will come as well. It probably won’t be at the expense of Selden Jr. What I saw dlast night was a team that is starting to get some chemistry as they start to get more familiar with each other. When the post moves, the mid range and the outside come together then watch out. This team has fight and Wayne and Brannen are very good fighters. It appears Coach Self has put together a team of hard nosed fighters. Inside Out or Outside In I don’t really care, I just want to win!
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@REHawk As I was watching the end of the game, I was surprised that Greene was in there at crunch time. Of course, as you said, Self’s move was the right one…Greene was huge down the stretch. It felt like somewhat of a breakthrough…Wayne not being in there at crunch time. He’ll still start, but it certainly felt different.
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@HighEliteMajor I couldn’t agree more. I kept faith in Greene and knew that it was a matter of Self giving him earned pt. Greene is pure as the driven snow. If Greene and Oubre get together, it’s going to be interesting.
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@icthawkfan316 I think Greene has earned it. He like Oubre, has been in the Self dog house. He’s coming out. Many like Mason and Graham in at the same time. Many also believe that combo could be crucial in a deep run. I think with the UTs, we’ll need length. Self has no choice but to match UTs length. He’s done it before and wins. I’d like to see Greene match up to UT’s length.
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Greene is probably our best FT shooter, Selden is our worst. Coupled with Greene’s good game and he clearly earned the PT at the end. Neither has seemed to put 2 good games together so what do we expect from them on Saturday on the road?
If you look at the stats you will see that Greene has scored the same amount of points as Selden in the 4 road games this year 34. Greene’s had 2 of his 3 best games of the year on the road. I think that has more to do with Greene being such a pure shooter that he can take his shot anywhere he goes. Selden has played way more minutes and produced little in terms of scoring. Now Selden was the one bright spot in last years debacle in Austin when he had 21 points. Maybe he will be the guy that has a similar game again with a little help from his teammates.
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@wissoxfan83 agreed Wissox. We may not even get to the sweet 16 this year but with our backcourt getting more experienced, Yah, Im thinking we bring another title back to Lawrence in the not too distant future.
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@jaybate-1.0 I stayed mad at Brady his entire senior year. In my mind, he was the poster child for OADs. I guess I need to finally let that VCU game go…lol.
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@BeddieKU23 I was just about to post the exact some thing about the free throw shooting,
I hear that several of you have been under the weather. I had gall bladder surgery and a minor hernia repair yesterday. In at 6:00 am and home by eleven. I had to fit it in between KU games. I win.
Seriously, I hope all of you feel better soon.
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@lincase A real Jayhawk. You probably camped out in the Phogg in your youth.
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@icthawkfan316 - I understand the Graham argument. What is key here is that we’re actually discussing whether Selden should start. How astonishing is that? The mere fact that it is a valid discussion point demonstrates where Selden is right now.
I don’t dispute your logic on Graham.
Numbers:
Points per minute: Selden .295. Greene .396. Graham .379.
Rebounds per minute: Selden .097. Greene .135. Graham .111.
Three point %: Selden 34.8; Greene 44.4; Graham 46.2.
When you compare Graham to Greene, it’s a discussion. And Graham is a better ball handler, and likely a better defender.
Again, Selden does not compare favorably in any category, except as a defender. His statistical shortcomings are quite amazing – particularly the rebounding element.
But I guess my thought on this is more subjective. Here’s why I go with Greene – Greene more fits the offensive character of this team. In particular, I believe that he is our best three point shooter (yes, even though a couple are ahead of him in three percentage). I favor that with this team to start a game. More so, Greene is a bit streaky on the shooting. I like that to start a game.
I like Greene starting – if we can get him open looks early, and he’s on, then we can ride the wave. If he clanks a few, no big deal, flip in Selden at the 16:00 minute mark. There could be games where even if Greene starts, Selden and Graham get more minutes.
I just think that when Greene gets 5 minutes, like he did vs. ISU, we’re leaving a potential hot streak on the bench – see Georgetown. In a game like ISU, rolling out Greene seemed the perfect match for the type of game. Of course, that’s not how Self played it. The biggest crime against humanity in that game was no going small earlier as others have mentioned, which would have been a great look for Greene.
My thought on Greene is not premised on just last game. He is arguably the best pure scorer on the team. With how we stagnate on offense … largely because of our force-fed, misapplied “system” with this team … Greene has to get opportunities.
But I like the discussion – Graham vs. Greene. @KansasComet says “Wayne Selden, Jr. is a starter.” I’m curious as to what Selden has done that warrants starting on this team, with the talent behind him – focusing on Greene and Graham? It certainly appears that Selden has gotten a bit of a free pass (you’ve heard that before).
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@truehawk93 I guess I don’t know with what being in the doghouse has to do with “earning it”. Just because you weren’t doing the things you were supposed to do and now you are, it doesn’t mean you are any more deserving than the guy who has been doing it right from the the whole time. And secondly, length? For…defense? Length hasn’t done him a whole lot of favors in helping him defend adequately.
@HighEliteMajor Well notice I didn’t say starting, just that Graham should be the one stealing more of Selden’s minutes. I would entertain the Greene starting argument - that he could potentially get some looks early and get hot. It would also allow Self to assess how they are guarding him. Because while you say “best pure scorer”, he’s incredibly one-dimensional. 75% of his shots are 3s, compared to 33% for Graham. If the opposition game plans to take away his open looks from the outside, he becomes a very pedestrian player. Which is one of the reasons why I like Graham in the first place - the versatility. He can create off the bounce as well as shoot from the outside. And of course his defense, which you say he is “likely” a better defender than Greene. From what I’ve seen it’s not even debatable.
But you are right, how crazy is it to be having the discussion in the first place?
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I think you have a valid point of giving Graham more minutes, too.
I think we all need to consider… does Self focus on Graham or Greene, sort of one at a time where there is a heavy emphasis? Or does he rotate those guys based on how they are performing in the game? I prefer the later, but I’m completely based on everything being a competition. I know Self likes to put some faith in a guy and see if he can hold up his end of the bargain. I’m more of a match-up guy and I’d be rotating in more players to mix and match to see who is hot in a game and who plays best against the player they face on the other side of the ball.
My discouragement with Wayne isn’t based on his offensive slump. He’s been falling apart on defense and giving up huge stuff to opponents that damage us far more than missing a few shots. It’s to the point that I don’t even like to review games anymore on my DVR because he is pissing me off! If some of you would review games and look specifically at Wayne, you will know what I’m talking about and you wouldn’t be boasting about how great a defender he is. He no where deserves the comparison to Releford. Not on the same planet. He has had Releford type games in the past. Just a few where he was coached on shutting down someone. But game-to-game he is slow fighting through screens, constantly caught off guard and completely abandons his man. He doesn’t practice “denial defense” where he closes the gap to deny the pass. He lets the other team’s offense flow without a disruption. In that sense, on a game-to-game basis he is nothing like Releford.
Wayne needs a simple approach to getting out of his slump. Anything too complicated makes him “think” more and that just digs him in a deeper hole. He isn’t responsive, and his lag is caused by over-thinking. He needs some simple changes to just open up opportunities for him to score or pass out of. Simple motion and drives just to clear enough space to get off his shot with confidence. He’s often trying to do too much in his drives, then his stuff gets shut down because he drove right by the open space he needed to score to go right into the defense and then be contested. That’s why he should be focusing more on pull ups. There right there… and he has enough size and hops to get off those shots with confidence.
Self should work him in more pick and rolls and pick and pops. The focus now is on Perry using those. What about Wayne? Wayne could do well with some pick and rolls that get him in motion to find the gap to pop easy midrange jumpers.
The problem is no one in college basketball focuses on midrange. The stats all say focus on the 3 or low post. I guess none of the college coaches ever watched players like Kobe Bryant. I’d like to know how many points that guy scored in his career around the FT line?
All of this has rubbed off on Wayne, telling him to either hoist up the 3 or take it all the way to the rim. That’s just wrong! The guy could easily be hitting 55% from some sweet, open midrange spots on the floor. That may not win us many games by itself, but it offers another option and it helps open up more 3s and other scoring opportunities.
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@drgnslayr I think you are right on with Wayne. Needs to pull-up more offense. Like Bobby Knight said years ago-nobody values or practices the 10 foot shot anymore. I do see Perry shoot it from the baseline but Wayne should be pulling up in the paint.
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@HighEliteMajor What has Wayne Selden Jr. done to deserve to start? He came to KU as the highest recruit of his class. That was until the signing of Wiggins and Embiid. He handled the signing of Andrew Wiggins with total class. You remember Andrew Wiggins and how much he affected you? Selden Jr. not only took a backseat to players that would go on to be drafted 1st and 3rd overall, he played through injury showing extreme dedication and determination. He came back to Kansas for his Sophomore Year and has been anything but selfish. It’s hard to imagine this young man as a one and done, because he appears to be a fine student athlete.
As far as what has he done this year? He has taken over games in stretches, he contributed timely passes for assists, like that bullet pass to Alexander for a crowd pleasing slam Monday night against OU. He has also been good for timely 3’s , buckets, free throws and offensive and defensive rebounds. He is also an option that guards and big men alike give the ball up to when advancing the ball up court, so I guess you could say he is trusted.
Has Selden Jr., made mistakes? Sure he has, but he has done a lot more good than bad. Graham is an excellent player and I take nothing away from him and I be his time will come, but not solely at Selden Jr’s expense.
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@icthawkfan316 The proverbial Bill Self dog house? You’re joking, right? Let’s see how many I can remember have been in and out of the Bill Self dog house. 1)Sherron Collins was in and out, mostly out, but Self made sure he was aware of the dog house, 2) Tyshawn Taylor was in it a good portion of the time, 3) Xavier was in the dog house from time to time, 4) The most notorious was EJ. I think Marcus Morris visited it from time to time. I also believe Selby may have entered it a time or two during his short, meaningless experience at KU. Traylor has been in and out for different reasons. Right now, I’d say Landen Lucas is locked up in Self’s dog house. I really hope Lucas comes up big soon.
I didn’t mean to imply this “dog house” translated into earned pt. I just think Self allows players to choose or decide what they want to do from game to game. IF they decide to play and earn the pt, they get pt. Self’s dog house is simply his way of showing them that he’s the coach and it’s his way or the highway. I’m not taking anything from the ‘guy’ whose been doing ‘it’ from the beginning. But if Greene can continue to develop, he’s going to be special. I love his length, shot, and his talent. He’s good and he knows it too. His ego needs checked, but I love a KU player to get a bit cocky and back it on the court. I think he’s got a good attitude and wants to play Bill Self ball and do what is best for the team. Remember, they’re all young and eager. They all make mistakes.
I think BG may be clutch. The guy thrives on being in a position to make shots. He talked trash to OU? I love it. It doesn’t hurt to get into the head of your opponent. It didn’t work all that well. But if that pushes his competitive trigger and he does it tastefully, let’s see what he can do. I would rather have him in the game than Graham. Graham is good, but Greene is a sophomore. I’ll take his experience over Graham.
