I am curious as to your opinions - life back to normal or stay shutdown
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@approxinfinity Not too bad. I when this whole thing started was thinking that we needed to do something similar.
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As I see it there is no normal as long as the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries did hard shutdowns and it worked so it can be done. But until we get to the point where we can understand where EVERY case came from and contact trace EVERY person that case came in contact with quickly and efficiently a good hunk of people will continue to self select their own personal shit downs and life will not be normal. The pandemic is THE biggest issue and until it’s dealt with nothing else will really work. I have friends and family who’ve lost their jobs, gotten furloughed now for the second time, and are healthcare workers who are absolutely exhausted. but I also have friends and family who are still contracting the virus. My brother is currently on day 6 waiting for his test results. It’s just unacceptable. And all our leadership wants is a pat on the back and let’s move on. It’s like setting sail for a long journey knowing there’s a hole in the boat.
70,000 more people are projected to die By November if we continue do what we are doing right now. More of we decide to open up further. In another thread some were talking about the sacrifice people need to make to bring back sports. How about we all sacrifice so that the entire crowd for 7 KU basketball home games don’t die. That’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make.
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@benshawks08 said in I am curious as to your opinions - life back to normal or stay shutdown:
their own personal shit downs
It is wonderful how apropos some typos are!
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@mayjay I think I type the word shit so much that now anything close autocorrects to it!
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Interesting original question. It’s easy if it’s someone else that had to go play football or teach or be around a lot of other people.
My wife’s uncle died Sunday (not covid). Great guy. One state over… big full Catholic Mass funeral on Thursday with a couple hundred kinfolk. So… go back to normal and hug a bunch of Missourians who have not been social distancing and think Covid is a big hoax, or stay shut down… Hmmm.
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@DanR Hugging Missourians Is always going to be a no for me.
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@mayjay shitdowns
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I have never said that Covid is a hoax, have had a family member almost die from it. When H1N1 was rolling around I caught it, was sick for over a month and it damn near killed me.
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@Marco let’s us remember that nothing was done for the H1N1. People are quick to say Obama would’ve solved this issue but so far it claimed more lives than COVID. People also forget trump has put governors in charge of their own states which includes several democrats doing little or nothing.
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@kjayhawks said in I am curious as to your opinions - life back to normal or stay shutdown:
@Marco let’s us remember that nothing was done for the H1N1. People are quick to say Obama would’ve solved this issue but so far it claimed more lives than COVID.
@kjayhawks I dont understand your steadfast devotion to misinformation.
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
You seem ready to step in front of a bus for Trump.
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@approxinfinity world wide numbers for H1N1 are estimated to be greater than 600k, COVID is at similar number tho hospitals have admitted that they have put Covid for more deaths than it has actually caused. Typical Democrat attitude, “vote for the rapist that I like”. Trump sucks as well as Biden and both are probably going down If Epstein’s associate survives to a trial.
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@kjayhawks nope try again.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases
H1N1, no lockdown, 284,000 global deaths. COVID, lockdown, 600,000+ deaths.
Fox News = bad.
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The number of Covid deaths went down the second trump took over the CDC. Strange how that works
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What’s your source?
Here’s what I found from the CDC: Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**
So, the way I read this, the highest estimate of global deaths is 575k (not greater than 600k). And that estimate covers a 12 month period.
By contrast, COVID19 is around 700k in less than 12 months.
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@kjayhawks I’m sorry to get snappy with you, this is just the third time we’ve had this same discussion about mortality rates where you’re throwing out numbers that appear to be wildly different from the numbers I see. My assumption is that your source isn’t good and you’re trying to justify the failure of this administration (or passing the buck from a source that is).
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@approxinfinity I’m not justifying anything and the trouble is if you google it and all these different numbers show up, who’s are right? @bskeet google
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Lethality has never been the biggest issue with Covid. It’s only focused on because it’s the extreme thing that will gather headlines. The reason why Covid is as serious as it is, is because of the severity of symptoms a lot of people experience that require hospitalization. This is why the CDC’s original goal was to flatten the infection curve.
The media here hijacked the message and used fear mongering tactics to misrepresent figures which has led to a lot of people to ignore warnings because the lethality rate of Covid is lower than a lot of other similar diseases so many people assume Covid is less dangerous because of the lower lethality rate.
Had our media stayed focused on emphasizing the severity of symptoms, I believe we’d be in a much better place as a nation than we are now. When I talk about the media, I’m not singling liberal or conservative media because both sides are just as of misleading the public about Covid and it’s true dangers.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I would add the ease of spread of the virus by those who are either asymptomatic or not YET showing symptoms as part of the biggest issue. Everyone in my immediate sphere of influence who has had it has recovered or is recovering (though a few distant family friends have passed) but NONE of them have said it was a walk in the park. I keep hearing “sickest I’ve ever felt,” and “just wouldn’t go away.”
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My 2 cents on this trope about the media:
“The Media” is an easy and popular target. Such a blanket statement suggests that there is a collective effort across all media that is akin to conspiracy theory. I don’t think such a statement is productive or accurate.
Yes: there are some shi**y sites out there that are pushing agendas. On the other side of this teeter-totter are some government agencies which have been actively trying to downplay the severity to the point of manipulating information to deceive people. (See Georgia’s charts about a month ago). Let’s just call that lying.
Yes, the media has a conflict of interest because the business model rewards engagement, which is driven by content that is more sensational. And… ALSO… the individuals in government positions have conflict of interest to mollify and placate constituents, drive the economy and have harmony within their party.
We are all caught in the middle of an information battle.
What a person decides to believe should be done with prudence and analysis.
Scapegoating is the easy route. It’s easier and more convenient to believe “the media” is to blame or “the liberals” are to blame or “the conservatives” are to blame or “the Chinese”… etc. etc… But that’s a dangerous path to take.
The messy truth is we all face the difficult task of sort through a noisy information landscape to find the best approximation for the truth that we can from the high-quality news outlets that work hard to be fair and objective and the officials who are working to serve their constituents in good faith.
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@benshawks08 I hear you, man… And am sympathetic, my friend. I had H1N1, for real, had it for over a month and it damn near killed me, my wife and two kids - no bullshit. We were - even with all of us going to the hospital together on numerous occasions - hacking our asses off for about five weeks. And we caught it in the summer, seems like when you catch bugs during that time that they are the worst.
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@bskeet We have had what, 180,000 people die from Covid? Mostly the infirmed or people who are not very active with underlying issues, on disabilty, whatever the case may be. I am going to be honest, not sure that all of these states remaining damn near closed is a good thing. People are obviously not doing what they should be doing or everyone - most - would not be getting sick, right? So what good is keeping the economy shut down doing? Just want to hear your opinions.
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The data I’m looking at shows 162.4k deaths in the US. Yesterday there were an additional 1100 deaths. here is my source: Domo Coronavirus tracker
My concern is the latency between the number of cases and the deaths. The number of deaths is creeping up right now from a nadir in late june/early july. #of Deaths lag the # of cases curve by about a month or so.
Right now, the number of cases is starting to drop from the peak in mid-July. Even now, the number of cases is double the previous peak in early April.
Based on this, I would expect to see a surge in the number of deaths by the end of August to align with the surge in cases.
A couple of caveats: 1) In March and April, testing was much less available, so the number of cases recorded probably is a significant underrepresentation of the actual number of cases at that time. 2) Doctors have learned a lot since April and that should lead to more effective treatment that may reduce the death rate.
A reduction in the death rate sounds good. But I’m assuming that there will be more “recoveries” like the 42-year-old woman in Lawrence (a triathlete) who still has significant symptoms five months after her “recovery”. Also, as, doctors extend the life of patients who eventually die, the shape of the death rate curve will change.
It is true, the infirm have a greater risk of death from this as do certain minorities and those with comorbidity. The fact is this: ANYONE, regardless of age, heritage or health can contract Covid and there is no understanding of why some people have a more serious case than others. And to be sure, we will learn a lot fast if we decide to engage in a social experiment that puts all the kids back in classrooms together in August. Just not sure what the cost of such an experiment will be.
I don’t know how to put a value on 1 persons life, let alone 100k or 200k. The number of deaths today-- whether characterized as a lot or a few – are the result of 6 months of occasionally-aggressive efforts to limit the spread. So, it’s fair to say that if we stop those efforts, the infections and the deaths will increase. Will it double or triple or quadruple? I don’t know. But instead of 1000 people dying a day, there will be many more.
People are being asked to do two simple things: 1) avoid crowds and practice safe distancing and 2) wear masks when they are in the presence of others (beyond their family ‘bubble’). To me, that isn’t too much to ask.
Sadly, there seems to be a slice of the population to which inconvenience is anathema and another slice of the population that is dismissive or in disbelief of the risks of the virus, largely because they have been blessed not to have first hand experience – that is, they don’t know someone who has become ill.
It is disturbing to me that some are so self-centered, short-sighted, and selfish.
Anyway, the economy is NOT “shut down”. It is dampered.
Some people are working remotely. Those that cannot are finding ways to work safely. They just need ALL consumers to reciprocate with responsible behavior. If there were NO efforts to mitigate the virus, the economy would most certainly shut down because we would have a health catastrophe.
The effect of the current restrictions on businesses is lumpy – some are near death, some are thriving and the majority are somewhere in between. I have a friend who owns a pizza business that says business is back to within 10% of what it was pre-pandemic. It is tenuous, and uncertain, but certainly not “shut down”. That’s in Santa Clara County California, where there are lots of restrictions.
TLDR:
My opinion: Controlling the spread of the virus is the fastest way to regain and sustain consumer confidence.
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I appreciate your opinion, and certainly do not claim - like most, it seems - to know anything about this virus. They said the warmer months would slow it, yet it seems to be thriving just fine in the hot, humid areas of Florida and Texas, as well as Mexico and Brazil that are getting totally slammed.
Then there is Japan, hot and humid as all hell in the summer and they didn’t even really have a shutdown, right off the coast of Korea and China with an aging population, and they have had a little over a thousand deaths. Granted, they wear masks even when they have the flu and when the government told them to wear masks they all did; I sent a family-member who is working there three-hundred of them in June.
I started wearing masks in December. Think I might have even caught it at the Wichita VA when going for my annual checkup at the end of January - coughed for three weeks and they gave me a steroid shot, Z-PAC, and Hydroxychloroquine. Kicked in about week or do. They said since that I had had H1N1 that my body problably had anti-bodies, which they took a sample of.
Don’t misunderstand me, I don’t want anyone to lose their life - not at all. It just seems that people everywhere are not wearing masks, nor social distancing and they are hanging with large crowds. The people that are working are for the most part following the rules.
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Glad you have recovered! Sounds like you’ve had a brush with covid or at least a scary relative.
You were wise to wear a mask in December. The early guidance was that they did no good. Of course, things are different, now.
I think a recent model that showed that if 90% would wear masks, the infection rate would drop dramatically (assuming there is safe distancing and no gatherings).
Totally agree that not all people are wearing masks. The people of this country who are not participating in this are doing the country harm. Ironically, many are doing so in the name of freedom.
I don’t think we should abandon practices that are known to be effective just because there are some misguided people refusing to be responsible.
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@bskeet attitude reflects leadership!
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This post is deleted!
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Well, one thing is all but certain, there will not be a college football season. And it’s beginning to look very iffy that there will be a basketball one. Man, can we start this year over, please. I demand a redo!
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I don’t want to go backwards! Let’s just skip forward to the happy ending! (there is a happy ending, right?)
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Just got through reading an article with Michael Osterholm , the Director of the Center for Infectious Disease.
He Stated that they feel that in September when High School level and in the College & Universities that we are going to see an Explosion of Cases that will far surpass what we saw after Memorial day.
He States that for us to really control the Virus that we need a more strict 2nd lockdown for 6 weeks to where we have the virus contained to like ONE case per thousand individuals.
Case have risen up to 40 % in young children , they said not sure how much to put into that because of possibly more testing and that young for sure are carriers but more possibly A symatic - -I know - -I know thats not the way to spell tht so sorry but anyways
