Why The Selden Free Pass?
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Another great post, HEM, and definitely deserves it’s own thread and plenty of discussion.
I’ve always been a big fan of Wayne. For one, he has a stocky build like me and I’ve always been waiting for him to be the next “mini-me” Sir Charles Barkley. That hasn’t happened this year, and worse, he seems to be backing down from aggressiveness. Towards mid-season last year, when Self was pushing the team for more aggressiveness, Selden did step it up a notch.
I wonder… oh… I wonder. Could it be? I really hate to go in this direction and make the comparison to another player I like equally… but… could Wayne be our next EJ? I’ve been thinking this for quite some time and didn’t want to go there, until I felt comfortable that it was a comparison that had to be mentioned.
Wayne and EJ both have NBA-type bodies and plenty of touted athleticism when they came to Kansas. We know what happened to EJ. There were questions of his health (same with Wayne). But at the end of the day, many of us gave EJ the nickname “the thinker” because his body followed too much heavy thinking. I’m afraid I see this in Wayne.
Watching Wayne out there, he looks a half-step slower than everyone. The same was true for EJ. Both of these guys were way too athletic to be physically slower. Both are held back by their thoughts. Their brains have to process too much before their bodies react.
I truly believe Self has made the same mistake with Wayne as he did with EJ. Imagine if EJ remained a 2 his entire career at Kansas and was never mentioned to take on other roles (like at point)? I believe he would have been a very different player and would have improved all 4 years. I feel the same with Wayne.
My jaw hit the table months ago when I heard Self talking about playing Wayne any positions 1 through 4. When he did that, he sent Wayne’s mind into a tailspin and he hasn’t recovered. His psyche is too much like EJs. Guys like this have to have a single focus, and if the apple cart is not disrupted, they show more than potential, they execute.
EJ was a disaster at point. It is a hard adjustment to make, and even players like Frank, who have more natural ability to make the switch, still have issues and a long adjustment period. It is a disastrous thought to run Wayne at point, even if it is just words for saying that Wayne will bring the ball up the court.
"My standard analysis on personnel is to go with the guy who will be your best player in March. Right now, I don’t think there is a easy answer to that question. "
I feel the same way. And I also definitely put in there that I want the best player that will help us do our best in B12 play. I haven’t completely written off a chance at another NC. But what I really don’t want to do this year is go 0-for-2, no B12 title, no NC. If I have to pick a focus for this year, I think I’d focus harder on the B12 title because if we lose it, we become just one more of the 400-some D1 teams. With the streak alive we have good recruiting bait and lots of extra general publicity. More than anything, I want to beat Texas this year. I want to prove, once again, that if big guys choose Texas over Kansas, they made a gigantic mistake! Imagine what kind of team we could have had with Myles?
Tomorrow is our last game before conference. This is our last chance for Bill to pull player’s strings without league consequences. He should be giving Wayne a push, and if he doesn’t hustle more, he should get an early pull.
Look at our conference schedule. We really, really need to win those first 3 games. We all know how tough of a league we have this year and if we don’t get out of the blocks strong then it will be very unlikely we’ll chalk up #11. For all of our upside, imagine the upside of teams like Texas. If we get out of the blocks strong, some of our league’s toughest teams will get a loss quickly, before they figure out how to play tough in the league. I see Texas as a much tougher out in 2 months.
What I see as a real killer this year is if we have a collapse like we did at TCU a few years ago. This team is super young, and something like a 3 loose streak would end our chances of another B12 trophy. We could do that with the way this team currently plays.
It is bad enough that we don’t know which players will show up for a game… but we know of 2 guys in our starting lineup that often play passive: Wayne and Perry. That just isn’t going to get it done this year!
We have so many tough players this year, but when Wayne and Perry play soft, they lead the way for a soft game. If we go soft in league, we will experience more blow outs like we had with Kentucky and Temple.
Temple was the wake up call.
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Wayne is certainly an enigma. We all thought he would improve significantly with improved health, the Soph rise most top 25 kids usually make after the first year.
We’ve yet to see it, his shooting is the biggest culprit of regressing. Was it wise to change his shooting stroke in the off-season? Some games he’s been red hot (Florida) and he’s hit big 3’s in others but his close range game has been lacking. The missed dunks are momentum deflating instead of highlight reels.
His passing is very good and I think his defense has been fine. We’ve seen him lock up people but also have lapses. Could he be over-thinking everything trying to be the leader? Whatever it is we know he’s a better player than he’s shown. We know that games like Florida are not just him catching fire. He’s got this in him and he’s just got to get himself to make positive plays consistently.
With Oubre’s emergence I think that could really take some pressure off him. Devonte would take even more off him. Both of these players could really help him get back on the ship.
I’ve been a huge fan of his, I’ve been the most critical of him because of it. I wish his shooting %'s weren’t as bad as they show. Right now he doesn’t deserve 30 minutes but nobody else can fill his role and be trusted. We just have to ride with him until he turns it around
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“Wayne is certainly an enigma.”
So true… and that exact statement was used frequently to describe EJ.
I was (and am) a huge EJ fan. Always was. He was asked to do more than he knew how to do. In that regard, he was a true team player. He gave up perhaps some of his pro career potential to play a different role in Kansas basketball.
I hope we don’t put Wayne in that position, too. I have the same fondness for Wayne, but I don’t think I have the stomach to watch him end up with a similar outcome EJ had. Once was enough.
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@drgnslayr Absolutely agree. The one thing I will always and forever love about EJ is that he played an enormous role on our way to the 2012 title game. He hit a bunch of big shots in March and his somewhat disastrous senior season can never take away from that. I hope we can say Wayne helped us get to a title game when his KU career is all said and done.
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Love this pic
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I wish I could hit the like button more times than once! Thanks!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Great pic! EJ’s performance in that ISU game was one of the greatest in KU regular season history.
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This time next year, the story reads under the picture above:
“In what has to be the most odd and shocking story of 2015, coach Bill Self and former player, Elijah Johnson, announced that they were a couple. Coming out together in a joint statement, the pair agreed to become wed at the venue where their true love began – in Ames, Iowa, on a cold winter night in 2012 when EJ shot down the Cyclones. At a public ceremony, coach Self grasped the reluctant bride’s hand, and caressing his face, began reciting his vows. In the background, his best man observed the nuptials. Self said after the ceremony that EJ was one of the best ball handlers in the history of Kansas basketball. EJ commented that Bill Self was a tough, but fair coach. “He rode me hard, but it was worth it”, said Johnson. The couple plans to live together in Lawrence.”
All fiction, no malice – please don’t sue me.
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@HighEliteMajor to weird for me!
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@joeloveshawks and slayer, what do you see in this pic?
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@BeddieKU23 I like the “enigma” comment. I think it goes to what @drgnslayr was mentioning – the EJ comparison. Comparably ranked players, who we were always waiting on to be consistently a top performer.
But I do think that Oubre can be “the man.” This could help Selden and Ellis, both. Oubre seems like he has the attitude to demand the ball, and not be timid once he gets it.
I agree with @joeloveshawks – Selden should be subject to getting pulled. I think Self’s comments about Svi and Greene are just that. Given Selden’s play, it would not surprise me to see Self put Selden on the bench in the final 5 minutes if Self doesn’t think he’s the best option to win the game. I wonder if the free pass is concluding as conference play is beginning.
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@HighEliteMajor A fair question. My best guess is that Self is more loyal to guys that have proven themselves in the past, even if they may be experiencing a slump or are inconsistent. The EJ comparison is a good one. While Selden is only in his 2nd year…who has logged the most minutes on the court the last 2 years? Selden and Ellis. The other options are very young (Greene, Svi). Now, it would have been interesting, and might still be if Selden does not step it up when Graham is ready to go. We also don’t know what goes on in practice. I can imagine that Selden is probably the most consistent wing performer in practice…maybe by a wide margin.
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Selden better be the most consistent in practice bc his play in games doesn’t justify the 30 min and long leash.
Personally, I’d start Svi and let him play 30 min a game. Sure he’d make some mistakes but I think his ceiling is higher than Selden both long term and by THIS March!
JMO
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@VailHawk I struggle to disagree with you. I think Svi has the best upside on the team of any player. I really like the “per minute” stats. For my money, those stats define the objective output of players more than any other stats. Svi lags in most of those categories.
But I go back to the eye test I mentioned after his first game here. He’s off the charts (in my eye, at least). He also must be very smart because earned starts very early in his freshman year.
It would be quite bold of Self to start Svi and play him over Self. I’m a bit torn there. As much as I like Svi, he is 17 and his stats don’t scream “start me” yet. I might be inclined to stick with Selden.
But on the objective stats, Greene outpaces Selden. What if Self started Greene at the two, and Oubre at the three? We would have our three best three point shooters on the floor. To me, that lineup plays to our strength best.
Don’t get me wrong. I think Svi and Selden are better players. But right now, Greene is a bad a** three point threat. I believe the Kent St. game showed Self’s thoughts there … 7 minutes.
But from an offensive standpoint, if Mason, Greene, Oubre, Ellis, and Alexander each played 30+ minutes, isn’t that five man squad the squad that would likely produce the most points?
To @jaybate-1.0’s suggestion on massive three point shooting, if that squad shot 25 per game, does anyone doubt It this is the most potent offensive team?
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Would have replied sooner, but had to be taken to hospital for stitches after having split a gut howling!
PHOF!
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I was thinking of Wayne as a Tyshawn Taylor type. And maybe it will all be worth it if he explodes on the scene 2 years from right now as TT did and leads this team to the championship game, although, heck, if he wants to do that this year it’d be fine with me!
Here’s a play from the other night that has me scratching my head. The team sets up a nice play, the back door is open which Wayne comes through and the 'Oop is tossed perfectly and Wayno nearly airballs it. While alley oops are impressive looking I also think that they often times think they are relatively simple plays when set up right. And the guy nearly whiffed. Scratching my head. I didn’t go back and watch it, maybe something happened on the play that I didn’t see.
As I’ve said frequently with this years team is that the good news is we’re probably getting all of these guys back, maybe Oubre leaves, but he’s going to have to sustain his improving level of play in my opinion for the league to come calling for him.
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Selden plays because of defense; that is the only reason. He is sound defensively. He only gets blown by when his concentration wavers. Self decided that he had to have Selden’s defense at any cost, until he could get something worked out for the long haul at the 3. Now that Oubre seems (and I emphasize seems) to have nailed the 3 down, Self is publicly going to work on Wayne. Self said he hoped Svi and Greene would now pressure Wayne into becoming more productive the same way he implied they had pressured Oubre into getting with the program.
Selden’s minutes will almost surely fall by 5-10 vs.UNLV, unless he is having a strong game, or the score is tight all the way.
Self WILL move Svi and Greene into Selden’s 2 time to “push” him into more production.
Which of Svi and Greene get the first crack at “pushing” Selden depends on which one guards the best.
I believe Svi will get the first crack, because Self envisions Svi at the 2 next season, and because Greene stank up the floor in 7 minutes vs. Kent State.
Notice, that because Selden hasn’t been scoring diddly, Self can afford Svi to play the spot without his trey gun working. All Svi has to do is guard and not turn it over and score a little to make it a wash. At a wash Self can then give Svi a few more minutes. And if Svi happens to get a few steals then Self can give him a few more of Wayne’s minutes, because Wayne isn’t stripping much. And if Svi then lights it up from trey, then Self gives 10-20 of Wayne’s minutes to Svi and Wayne is suddenly sweating bullets about next season. Wayne is off the draft boards and Svi can gun the trey and Wayne cannot. Talk about surgically maneuvering Wayne into playing harder and focusing more!!!
And if Svi never really gets out of the blocks, then you green light Greene to shoot the trey if he guards and very shortly Wayne’s back is up against the wall, also, because Wayne doesn’t shoot the trey well.
I really believe Self thinks the Selden we saw versus Florida is the real Selden, but that the knee injury and the lack of a credible threat by a back up to his defensive contribution, has lead Wayne into coasting without quite realizing he is doing.
Remember, Selden played through with a knee injury last season and to Self that is the gold standard of a swinging pair you can count on.
I figure Self has been letting Selden get high minutes to help him work through the physical part of the knee injury. He has to play a lot to get his pop back. Pop may not come back, but the only way for it to come back is through lots of work. Selden has now had the lots of work part. Self probably figures now the rest of the problem is between the ears. So: now the head pressuring starts.
Gosh, I hope Wayne can just come out and play strong the entire UNLV game, so Self does not start turning the screws. It is never pretty to watch IMHO. And Self with Oubre solved at the 3 is ready with the screw driver.
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@jaybate-1.0 I hate to ask you about this again, but, do you think w/BG, he’s either on or completely off? I see him getting enough time to see if he’s on. If not, bench.
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Some players have intangibles that are hard to evaluate based on the pure numbers. For example, if you look at Kirk Hinrich (Chicago Bulls) numbers, they don’t look that good and they are all down this season, particularly his shooting; however, he continues to get extended play time because one, he plays good defense and two, he has intangibles that make the team operate better when he plays. When he was off for several games due to injury, every game recap had a blurb that indicated he was still out. I imagine Selden brings that type of intangibles that Coach Self feels make the team better.
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@JayHawkFanToo I agree, I was talking about BG, he appears NOT to have other intangibles. Free throws! That’s why cf didn’t get much time last year.
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Man O Man, this thread has touched the very essence of 2014/15 Jayhawk Hoops dilemma. WHAT DOES BILL SELF DO WITH HIS SHOOTING GUARD WHOSE SHOTS AREN’T FALLING? I’ve thought for some time that the Selden free pass was wearing thin, if not ragged. But with Graham sidelined and Svi and Greene so mercurial, what the heck to do other than run Oubre out of his ascending position in order to bring Greene in at the 3 while Selden sits? Right now it is a tantalizing thought, playing Mason, Oubre and Greene in a jaybate scenario, raining 25+ threes per game. Self would laugh that off as Fools’ Gold Indeed. But I look to see him give it a shot, briefly and intermittently. This upcoming UNLV contest just might be worth reviewing again and again, even if KU should suffer a Temple-like outcome. I look to see more pro-active decision making earlier in the second half if we revert to similar mayhem.
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Try to remember that players that aren’t able to play to begin with when they arrive at KU always have a development arc that they progress through. For some it is shorter, and for some it is longer, but all of them go through it. It took Travis Releford fully three years, one being a red shirt season, before he had mastered all the skills and had matured mentally to the point where he could do all the basic things reliably and be a steady starter, or rotation player.
There is a period where they only get brief shots against guys that should be easy for them to play against. If they pass that test, then there is a period where they are given brief shots against guys that should be tougher for them to play against. If they pass that test, then they are given shots against really good players. If they pass that test, then the next season, a role on the team, either a back up rotation player, or a starter, is crafted that they are intended to fulfill, either sooner or later over the course of the season. They are given a few tries and if they don’t do well, then they usually have a competitor that is is given a try. Their next try depends on whether that competitor does well or poor. That competitor might do a lot of things well and keep playing regardless of how well the first player is improving. Then some times Self decides the team needs more of something and the competitor cannot give it, so then Self moves back to the first player. He gets another chance to do his duty plus show he can give the team that something different. And so it goes. The next season, if the player is broadening out so that he really is sound at all the basics the team needs a position, then the team is schemed for a role with him as a cornerstone starter, a parameter if you will. Wayne Selden is a parameter player this year that is not quite as productive as Self would like. So at that point, he doesn’t bench a parameter player, but he starts shrinking his minutes with a player that can force Wayne to get a little more productive. If Wayne gets more productive, then his minutes go back up. But if not, or of if the other player gets hot, then Self gives the backup maybe 15-20 instead of 10 minutes of Wayne’s game until Wayne can find a way to get more productive.
This development arc occurs with guys good enough to start playing early. Even Wiggins had a development arc.
And it happens with guys that are starting from hardly playing at all. A guy like Greene, who has a wild hair, and has limited defensive ability, gets it for awhile, then loses it, then gets it back for longer, then loses it for awhile, and so on. It does not mean that Brannen is hopeless. It just means that his development arc is longer and more fitful. Brannen Greene has enormous talent even though he doesn’t get to play big minutes. His game has holes in it that prevent him from consolidating his game into a role that Self can say, “Okay, he is now reliable in the role and I can go work on Perry some more to try to squeeze more productivity out of him at the 4.”
The only thing that interrupts the long development arc of a talented player like Brannen, or Travis Releford, is an OAD. If Self has signed an OAD ahead of Travis, Travis steady development would have stopped that season. Like Brady got stopped by Xavier. And then again by Josh, until Josh got injured. You can’t keep developing more rotation time unless you keep getting opportunities to perform.
Brannen has TAD Selden, and OAD Oubre ahead of him at the two positions he might play. And he has a 17 year old boy wonder in Svi beside him that will sometime soon come on very strong himself. That is a lot of talent to try to compete with. And contrary to what people say, it isn’t fun hanging on for dear life competing against great players. It is hard work. It takes great courage not to lose one’s confidence.
Brannen is fighting a terrific battle; the kind that either breaks players, or makes them incredibly tough. There is no sure thing in sports. Sooner or later you are in jeopardy. Some times he goes out on the floor and feels like a million bucks. Other times he goes out there and wonders how he can possibly hang on another day. It is really harsh the pressure these young men are put under. And remember that some of them view this as their only ticket out of poverty. I don’t know if that applies to Brannen, or not, but it is a huge deal to a player to have to fight for his life to hang on to just a slim spot in the rotation and know that next year, 3 more OADs might show up.
I have no doubt that Brannen is coming along and would eventually develop into a starting D1 wing by next season.
But if 2-3 OADs come in on the wings and one or two of his competitors this season stick around, then he is behind an eight ball.
This is what people did not appreciate about Conner Frankamp. Conner was plenty good to play his role this season, but it was the OAD tide next season that made it seem pointless to stay. CF might not be a starter at WSU either, but he is not going to have to beat out 2-3 OADs coming into WSU. Brannen is in this position that CF walked away from. And it is brutal. Brannen is good enough to keep playing some this season and be ready to give a good account of himself next season. But if Self signs 2-3 OADs he is going to be back scrambling for a slim spot on the rotation, even though next season it appears his development arc will probably permit him to be a major player on the team, if there were not a bunch of OAD/TADs ahead of him.
Such is life in D1.
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One cannot win shooting 30% inside the trey stripe taking 75% of the team’s shots there unless the opponent is similarly inept.
Let me disaggregate what I am saying about high volume trey shooting.
The mathematics tell me it make sense to shoot 71 treys per game at .a 35 make rate, rather than shoot 25% treys at 38% and 75% 2s if you make less than 45% of your 2s. And the better your defense, in terms of its ability to limit the opponent to 5-10 fewer shooting attempts, the more mathematical sense it makes to shoot 71 treys. But this is the part of high volume trey shooting hypothesis that is aimed at a broad discussion of where basketball is headed. This is not talking about “raining” 25 treys. This is talking about a microburst of 71.
More specifically, regarding this KU team, until Cliff and Perry and Jamari can shoot 75% of the field goal attempts and make 50% or more against Top Ten competition, KU’s future excludes inside out, and lies instead in micro bursting, or at least very heavy raining treys and running the secondary break occasionally.
Self can waste FGAs playing inside out, but it IS a waste. Working it inside and missing a bunch before kicking it out and taking treys will slightly increase the shooting percentage of the 25% of total FGAs taken outside, but NOT as much as simply shooting waaaaaaay more treys would increase the effective percentage and the points scored.
Shooting any 2s, when you have trey shooters that will get you a higher effective shooting percentage, is like relying on B-17s for bombing targets, when you have B-29s. The B-29s carry a lot more bombs with a lot more opportunities to hit the target and do damage than the B-17s that carry fewer bombs, fly lower, and get shot down more often.
I am the Earl Weaver of basketball, coach.
I play the percentages, not the conventional wisdom.
If Wooden had played the conventional wisdom, he would never have adopted the three quarter court 2-2-1.
If Wooden had played the conventional wisdom, he would never have integrated basketball.
If Wooden had played the conventional wisdom, he would not have stuck with the three quarter court 2-2-1 with Jabbar, and with Walton.
But the logic outside the box was there.
Anchor a 2-2-1 with a 7 foot player and it is even better than anchoring it with 6-5 Freddie Slaughter.
If Wooden had played the conventional wisdom, he would never have had 6-9 250 pound Steve Patterson playing in a single high post offense and shooting 22 footers from the high post with Wicks and Rowe as low wings and two guards out front as high wings.
If Wooden had coached in the era of the three point basket, he wouldn’t have hesitated an Indiana second with the trey ballers we’ve got to rain as many treys as they could get off.
The Rubber Man is speaking through me, Coach. I can hear him.
In the three point era: outside in.
With lots of good three ballers, lots of threes.
If Self would think this is fool’s gold, then he is not the genius I have always thought he was.
I never suggested something like this when he had the horses inside and was beating the good teams. Necessity, not ideals, is the mother of invention. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, unless its just about to break.
No one will beat UK inside out this season.
Not even UA, or Duke.
Nimitz defeated the greatest Naval attack force in the history of the world at Midway, because he knew it had one weakness: carriers that burned easily, because of wood flight decks and no firewalls in the structure of the carriers. Wood decks plus no firewalls equaled fire traps; the Japanese carriers were fast, but vulnerable to bomb and torpedo hits.
Nimitz had air craft carriers that could exploit that exact weakness, plus a code he could break, If he could hit them first, take some hits, and hit them again, they would catch fire and the greatest Naval attack fleet in the history of the world would have no air cover. And to come in for the kill meant with that greatest fleet ever without air cover met exposing the Japanese fleet to further US carrier strikes and possible land based aircraft attack.
“God grant me the courage not to give up what I think is right even though I think it is hopeless.” --Chester W. Nimitz
The key here is right.
Courage does no good if you are wrong.
Self saw what happened with inside out against UK the first time.
If there is a second time, he owes it to his team to be right.
And they ought to adapt the 2-2-1.
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“slayer, what do you see in this pic?”
I see an EJ who remained humble even after destroying ISU by himself.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I see a guy that was more “in the zone” than almost any KU player I can ever remember. Hitting guarded 3’s from like 30 feet was unreal. I still love his dunk as the exclamation point on that performance.
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Thanks for your opinions. I kept this pic because I see so much in it. EJ had no idea he did anything bad when he dunked that last shot, he was in a zone! He’s embarrassed and wouldn’t do anything to hurt coaches faith in him. Coach is being so gentle w/him, holding his hand and playfully slapping him. Coach knows EJ just gave everything he had! Sports siren is witnessing the special moment. Then later, coach gets the nasty fan treatment and then our players get the racial comments on the bus. Pretty special night. I’m a sap!!!
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I noticed this topic when it was posted but didn’t have a chance to reply until now and I’m glad it worked out that way because of Selden’s play vs UNLV today. Today’s game confirmed what I suspect Self sees in Selden. Yeah, he had a pretty good game today, but it wasn’t Wayne’s scoring that stood out. Selden is always the guy, it seems, making floor burn plays. He has a tendency, regardless of actual numbers, to put his fingerprints on a game. Now I get that a streaky-shooting glue guy who struggles to defend quick guards isn’t exactly what you want to get out of your top 15 McD’s AA, but he usually makes his presence felt in a positive way. He also has shown a lot of improvement in his ball handling and passing. His A:TO is actually quite a bit better than Mason’s and he put’s up nearly the same assist numbers. He should have even more, in fact, if Ellis, Lucas, and Mickelson would be more hands ready and finish around the rim.
Given the number of dunks Selden has missed this year, I’m thinking he hasn’t come back from his knee surgery. The only question I have is ‘is he coming back?’ If he can rehab his knee back to the strength he had while he was playing injured, then I think the rest of his game can come together. Thing is, he’s going to have to be back for another year. That’s all good given that we’re really unlikely to sign a guard other than Tyler Dorsey now that Blankeny chose LSU over UK (ah, how fast the recruiting wheel turns. Consider this my prediction of Newman to UK now), and I’m not sold we’ll pick up him either.
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Welcome back.
