Pre Season Stat Projections
-
Poor to good is a really big leap. Poor being just north of Garrett.
Releford was never a poor shooter in my opinion. He landed here as an above average three point shooter. He had great form and made good decisions. Again, just my opinion.
Frank Mason, on the other hand, was a mess. The work done from freshman to sophomore season was amazing. He is the guy that demonstrates that fixing important small items can take a guy with talent and catapult him forward – like not starting his shot while moving laterally or leaning forward, getting a consistent launch point (and from a consistent peak) and launch angle, and having a consistent lower body alignment, etc. Little things like that can really make an impact. And that was coaching.
Contrast Mason to a guy like Devonte Graham who really didn’t appear to change anything. And always seemed good. Or guy like EJ who never really moved the needle.
Now, Chalmers was never a bad shooter. But that guy, as much as Mason, really improved. So that isn’t poor to good. But I loved his improvement from good to assassin.
That all said, we haven’t had too may just “bad” shooters (that were in a position to be shooters – excluding big guys). Miles going from oblivion to 50% was the biggest jump I’d really seen. Crazy.
-
Selden with his Freshman above/behind the head launch point turned into a nice shooter as well.
-
I’ll clarify a bit more here. I wasn’t comparing Svi and Enaruna as shooters. I was comparing how they struggled shooting in International settings having to be the source of offense for their teams.
Tristan had a game recently where he was 3/6 from 3 and another where he was 0/5. If he got the kind of minutes his freshman year to put up that kind of volume I think we as fans can expect those types of games from him. I don’t believe he gets enough minutes to shoot 5/6 3’s a game but optimistically I think he’ll be around 30% as a freshman on low volume. Some have said he can’t shoot which isn’t true. It’s a developing skill for him. He can make perimeter shots but probably will need some coaching and repetition to get to the point of reliable in games. I can’t imagine we need him for reliability until his Soph year
-
Makes sense. The demands on them internationally are actually very similar, as they were pressed into roles that may not have fit their skillsets as well as the roles they eventually occupied (or will occupy) at KU.
Releford was never a poor shooter. He was a big time scorer in HS that adjusted his role in college. He wasn’t asked to score at KU, but he was never a poor shooter.
Miles is an interesting case. I would argue that he never really developed as a shooter. That’s what kept him out of the NBA long term. If you look only at his 3PT% you see a nice progression from 29% as a freshman up to 50% as a senior. That would suggest that he improved. However, you look at his 2PT% and you see that it never really moved, staying more or less right around 43% his entire career (with his sophomore year standing out at 49%). Miles made a few more threes as a senior, but still bricked the same amount of 2s. And indeed, he shot about 30% from three in his European career, with one season around 37% and every other season south of 33%. And his FG% in Europe? 42.3% over 5 seasons. Miles was the same shooter after five years in Europe that he was after four years at KU.
Selden was also never bad as a shooter. Came in at 33% and improved steadily from there. Selden was more plagued by consistency problems (like Vick) than he was by result issues.
Probably one of the most famous improved shooters in the world right now is current Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. He was a bad 3pt shooter in college. 20% as a freshman, 29% as a sophomore. But the thing was, Kawhi always attempted shots. He shot 78 threes as a freshman, and 86 more as a sophomore. Clearly, there was a belief that he could shoot, despite the results. The Spurs literally re-worked his entire shot from the ground up as a pro. But even then, Leonard was a pretty good 2pt shooter that entire time. He struggled from distance, but his jumpshot overall was not broken, as he shot right around 50% over his college career from 2. You can contrast that to a guy like Ben Simmons, whose shot was always broken, and who didn’t even attempt to shoot in college (just 3 attempts from three point range in his lone college season).
If Enaruna comes in at 33% or so, I think he has a chance to become a pretty good shooter. If he’s at or below 30%, the chances that he ever becomes a good shooter fall dramatically.
-
@justanotherfan I disagree with Selden. He was horrid his freshman year. Then they changed his shooting style, and his numbers dramatically improved. If Coach and staff hadn’t changed his technique, he would’ve been the pre-Marcus Garrett.
-
Remember what I said about Braun, guys. The guy is going to play - and I mean really play! - for us, starting this season. He will get, atleast, 10-12 mpg and will contribute.
I will even take it a step further, when he finally leaves KU we will miss him but can still watch him play if we decide to follow his NBA team. He is 6’7 and still growing, a great shooter, passer, ball handler and distributor, can defend and play above the rim - that is pro potential.
-
KUSTEVE said:
@justanotherfan I disagree with Selden. He was horrid his freshman year. Then they changed his shooting style, and his numbers dramatically improved. If Coach and staff hadn’t changed his technique, he would’ve been the pre-Marcus Garrett.
Selden was quite the disaster, form wise. No way he gets to that 39.2% figure from 3 if there wasn’t a wholesale change in form.
-
We all should maybe pump the brakes a bit on Enaruna. From this summer via Jon Givony, "Enaruna’s team was relegated to the B Division, but the Kansas-bound combo forward did demonstrate quite a bit of potential with his combination of physical tools and versatility. Enaruna was one of the most physically gifted players at the event, standing over 6-foot-8 in shoes with a proportioned frame and a wingspan exceeding 7 feet. He made a number of highlight plays over the course of the week showing elite body control and explosiveness creating his own shot, operating above the rim and being a difference-maker defensively when locked in.
But he went through long stretches when he looked disengaged, couldn’t buy a basket from the perimeter (5-of-36 from 3) and demonstrated poor shot selection and decision-making. His jumper looks smooth at times but stiff and unnatural in other moments. He seemed to have some kind of mental block at the free throw line, hitting just 21 of 42 attempts. Enaruna’s ability to generate offense with a powerful first step, long strides and polished footwork is intriguing at his size, but he’ll need to continue to improve his playmaking ability on the move and finish through contact.
Despite the criticism, Enaruna is a tantalizing talent with a skill set not all that dissimilar to Kevin Knox. It will be interesting to see how quickly he can contribute for Bill Self at Kansas."
-
@FarmerJayhawk I think his shot selection will improve quickly!🥴
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Oh for sure. If it doesn’t, he’ll be at risk for splinters in his arse. Good thing we don’t really need him as constructed. Speaking of, haven’t heard any updates on Harris joining the team and the first day of school is the 26th (I always forget it’s much later back home than out east).
-
@KUSTEVE Theoretically. Most ball players I’ve known/heard of are well practiced by the time they’re 12-15. To “learn” to start shooting at 17 is more or less unheard of.
Reference Udoka Azubuike’s free throw shooting.
-
@nuleafjhawk based on @BeddieKU23’s report that he just switched shooting hands (he’s actually left handed) then it won’t be impossible to build up a new stroke. Just takes time and good reps.
-
@FarmerJayhawk no, nothing
-
FarmerJayhawk said:
We all should maybe pump the brakes a bit on Enaruna.
Here, here. Just some patience is all. If he contributes nothing this season, he could still be a complete and wild success at Kansas. We get guys like this so they can develop. If he’s good enough to play, great. If not, he’s still a tremendous guy to sign and have moving forward.
-
I agree that Selden changed his stroke and improved. I disagree about how bad he was before the change. Selden shot 42-128 from three as a freshman. That’s basically 33%, and he did that on almost 4 attempts per game.
To me, that says that he shot a break even percentage on a pretty decent volume of attempts (wasn’t incredibly selective to only take the very best looks).
He was certainly better after that (over 39% as a junior), but he was not bad even as a freshman.
Selden wasn’t a great shooter coming to KU, but he could shoot. He had results saying he could shoot. He improved, but he had a foundation to improve from. I just worry about guys that don’t have results to back up what we hope to see.
-
@justanotherfan He shot the over the head bolo ball shot. If they hadn’t changed his shot, his percent would’ve been 0% because they weren’t going to let him continue shooting that way. It’s a miracle he didn’t shoot 10% with that form.
-
@nuleafjhawk Is shooting a skill? If it is, it can learned. It’s like when people say major leaguers can’t hit for power. Then a light hitting Brady Anderson comes along, and hits 50 in a season. Or Yonder Alonso belts 30 in a year, after hitting less than 20 the 3 years previous. Shooting is just like anything else…you practice enough, and you refine your craft, and you will get better. Selden got better. Frank got better. Devonte got better. TROB even got better, although almost all his shots were all 10 feet or less anyway. Svi got much better, and he was a 27% shooter his first year. Rele got better, although he was pretty good to start with. So, can they improve? I would say absolutely. It’s been proven.
-
@KUSTEVE …well Brady Anderson may have possibly (100% definitely) been using steroids though. But point taken.
-
-
Crimsonorblue22 said:
@FarmerJayhawk https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1160900743127293952?s=21
Jon knows nothing.
-
Crimsonorblue22 said:
@FarmerJayhawk https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1160900743127293952?s=21
That list is… something.
-
FarmerJayhawk said:
Crimsonorblue22 said:
@FarmerJayhawk https://twitter.com/jonrothstein/status/1160900743127293952?s=21
That list is… something.
It’s typical Rothstein. He is a mouthpiece for coaches online and really doesn’t know what he is talking about.
But really his worst error here is not accounting for opportunity. None of the KU guys will be big impact because they won’t get enough tick. Kai Jones? I like his game but he might not get a ton of minutes. Meanwhile one of the FR at ISU could easily be their 6th man and Dajuan Gordon might be the 2nd best player for the Purps period.
-
@BShark very true. And Harris may not even play this season. Gordon is going to be a giant pain in the ass for 3-4 years.
-
@BShark he has several lists. Doesn’t Harris have to pass some classes before he comes here?
-
Harris hasn’t even been announced by KU yet and isn’t on the roster. He’s got 2 weeks to get here.
-
@FarmerJayhawk I wondered why he was on that list
-
@KUSTEVE Absolutely anyone can improve at anything. It just seems to me that athletes who are “elite” or even way above average either have a God given talent or they have such an extreme interest (passion) in their sport that they develop it very early. Hopefully he will do the nose to the grindstone thing and develop into a very good shooter.
-
@nuleafjhawk I recently saw a list of players that were barely ranked in the Top 100 when they were recruited to college that were drafted in the latest NBA draft. I’ll look for that tweet when I have the time. Or the unwritten rule for major leaguers: they all say that age 26 is the breakout year, and then you have a guy like Geronimo Berroa, who does absolutely nothing until he turns 30, and then starts clubbing 30 HR seasons. My point is that skills can develop. Yes, it would be nice if they were a complete package at 17 or 18, but most of the time there is further refinement that has to happen.
-
Guys can certainly improve, but there is generally a ceiling on that improvement depending on how naturally good (or bad) someone is to begin with.
For example, you can improve your vertical leap. Anyone can with the right exercises. But not everyone can train their way to a 40 inch vertical. Maybe you can turn your 10 inch vertical into a 25 inch vertical (an incredible improvement), but the person that naturally had a 23 inch vertical may get to 35 or 40 and throw down 360 dunks while you are barely sneaking the ball over the rim.
Shooting is a skill just like hitting is a skill in baseball. But some guys are naturally gifted hitters. Others are not. Generally speaking, if a guy cannot shoot by the time he is 18 or so, that skill will likely not develop. There are exceptions, obviously, but guys that can put the ball in the basket (like Selden) can improve more with refining their craft. Guys that struggle to shoot (like Garrett) generally do not improve regardless of what adjustments they make. Maybe Garrett or Enaruna ends up being like Bruce Bowen and that skill develops over time. More likely, they end up staying more or less the same and learning to work within those limitations to be effective.
-
@KUSTEVE That surprises me. I guess it shouldn’t - i have a faint recollection of being wrong at least once before. No need to research it any more for me - I’m starting to buy what you’re selling.
One of those things that i just had in my head that if they weren’t great by an early age, they weren’t going to be. Just being stupid, I guess.
-
@nuleafjhawk We all do it- myself included. I wrote off Frank Mason after his freshman year because I thought he was a ball hog, and shot too much. That was crow pie with a side of shame for me.
-
Bossi still thinks Harris makes it to campus and redshirts. That makes a lot of sense, given McBride has been around all summer and has a big head start.
-
@KUSTEVE Hell, I’m still developing - hopefully until the day - a long, long time from now - that I die.
-
This was last year. Please stay healthy Doke.
And yes this only counts games in which Doke actually played. Doesn’t count the Wofford game.
-
Mechanics are important for shooting success… but these guys coming in are a crap shoot regardless of their form. Hard to know where their heads are at and what they will do under pressure. How will they counter once the rest of the league has seen them once or twice and plays them right according to scouting. Which players have fight in them, which have flight.
I get concerned if a player switches hands. That’s like starting over on a bicycle.
We really need to see at least one of our freshmen step up in some kind of productive role. Then we can feel like we have some kind of resemblance of depth.
-
@BShark Love me some Dok!
